As Sakorzy arrives to campaign - has Royal fluffed it?
January 30th, 2007
Guest slot on the French Election by Tim Jones
It’s a remarkable testament to London’s pulling power, French failings and how European politics are running to catch with the blasting open of the continent’s labour markets. Tonight, London is experiencing a first: an election rally by a French presidential candidate.
It makes sense for Nicolas Sarkozy, the official candidate of the ruling UMP conservative coalition, to come looking for votes in a tight race. Out of a much larger number, more than 100,000 French citizens are registered in the UK and every vote will count.
My more pessimistic contacts on the French right remain convinced that their standard bearer will fail to dent the comforting, painless-change candidacy of socialist Ségolène Royal but I’m increasingly convinced she’s already fluffed it.
As someone who started putting money on her at 13.0 back in November 2005 and chased her down to 5.50, I should be be keeping this quiet and hedging the lot at Betfair’s generous 2.12. But I won’t just in case since, as a partisan for Sarkozy, the winnings would be the only compensation if she pulled it off in the second round on May 6.
Fortunately, I’ll probably lose my shirt. Her lamentable performance since the campaign proper began two weeks ago makes this unlikely.
The seven polls published since Sarkozy was selected as her opponent on January 14 have shown a marked puncturing of her previously strong support. The culmination was the BVA poll conducted January 22-23, which not only shows her losing 52%/48% to Sarkozy in the second round but reveals a severe 8-point drop in her first-round tally to 27%.
When I wrote about her here in June, I warned that her ratings were vulnerable because “she has to continue alienating nobody for 11 long, long months”. With the spotlight now on her and Sarkozy and no one else, she can no longer hide the gaping hole at the centre of her policy programme.
It was this void that François Hollande, the PS leader, tried to fill by promising to make anyone earning more than €4,000 net per month pay wealth tax. Royal, keen to keep the aspiring middle class on board, dismissed the proposal from the father of her children and hastily put together a taskforce to devise a fiscal plan.
Not only did this reveal she didn’t have a plan even though she had the chutzpah to stand for president but the ensuing debate led to the revelation that the Hollande-Royal household (households, as it turned out) itself pays wealth tax – a shocking notion for many socialists.
It gets worse. In her attempt to steer clear of awkward domestic debates, Royal has ventured disastrously into foreign policy. She began by travelling to China and Lebanon in a bid to look presidential. Unfortunately, the headlines she made back home were about her unwitting agreement with a Hezbollah politician who compared the Israelis with Nazis and her praise for China’s speedy justice system.
It’s speedy alright, said Sarkozy’s defence spokesman Pierre Lellouche, because China is “far and away the world champion in capital punishment”. She caused a diplomatic incident with Canada by appearing to advocate Quebec’s independence and then, in what she thought was a confidential phonecall with Quebec’s premier, joked that Corsica too should be independent. Oh, and this future commander in chief miscalculated by a factor of ten the number of nuclear-armed French submarines. Elections aren’t won or lost over foreign policy but it’s no coincidence that BVA found only 29% of respondents believing Royal had “presidential stature” versus 60% for Sarkozy.
Sarkozy’s political vulnerabilities have been well-aired. He has alienated young voters through his law-and-order image; he is unapologetically pro-American and made the mistake of being photographed shaking Bush’s hand; above all, people know he will shake up France’s labour market.
But ironically, it is these very weaknesses that make him hard for Royal to beat. The French know this man and his policies inside out and yet he consistently commands around 50% of second-round voting intentions. People know nothing about Royal except that she’s an attractive, articulate woman. As her policies and missteps emerge, she will alienate either the socialist core vote or the centrist floaters.
Tim Jones
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Mike, I think you are correct in your analysis and like you I thought she looked a possible winner a few weeks ago. She does not look as if she has an organised strategy or game plan for the campaign?
Very much hope that Chris from Paris is around and that he will also comment
The answer to this question is too early to tell. In a two horse race in a politically polarised country a 4 point lead is nothing at this stage. Though in fact considering her gaffes being only 4 points behind is pretty good going.
As in America though this election is interesting in that the stronger candidates come from the governing parties, but in both countries the governing parties have struggled to make a positive impact in the last term. History though would suggest that the candidate is more important than his party, which is why I make Sarkozy a slight favourite to win.
Both my French brother in law and a French intern in my unit have become quite strongly pro-Sarko. The rally is totally sold out- they will be turning hundreds of people away.
In as far as the French want reform, Sarko seems the only guy remotely speaking up for those aspirations.
Tim you missed out that she said that Iran should never have civil nuclear power (not even the US says that). Also whilst with the Lebanese she said the Israeli air attacks should cease and with the Israelis that they were justified. Her parliamentary spokesman said to the incredulity of an audience that her only problem was her partner ie Francois Hollande, head of the Socialist Party. The spokesman was given a yellow card and suspended for a month; a bizarre compromise which made her look weak. Hollande and her have been at odds over tax policy so it’s not just foreign policy which has been all over the place. Her campaign has been a shambles for which she can blame no one but herself. Foreign Policy would be her principal responsibility as President yet she has no feel for it at all. There is still time for things to change but she is losing votes steadily to Francois Bayrou, a Centrist candidate. It wouldn’t take many more gaffes for her to be in danger in the first round particularly as Le Pen is performing poorly in the polls and socialist voters don’t fear a repeat of last time where he beat Jospin into second place. Much now hinges on the unveiling of her policy programme in the middle of February.
Fundamentally though what on earth is there in her career which justifies this tilt at the Presidency; her campaign for the nomination was totally without substance. Strauus-Kahn would have been a much more formidable candidate IMHO.
It’s a very good intro and it’s interesting that Sarko despite his policies, which are not very traditionally ‘French’, is beginning to pull away. I think it’s worth remembering that the French are electing their head of state, rather than head of government - somebody who is supposed to represent their country in more than just being its representative. Royal, despite her name, clearly lacks that quality. It’s perhaps rather like the comparison between Thatcher and Kinnock in the 80s: Thatcher wasn’t liked but was respected and you knew where you were with her; Kinnock by comparison wasn’t taken seriously. And if you’re not taken seriously, your campaign is sunk.
One other factor that may be in Sarko’s favour is the contrast with Chirac. The distance between the two men who are nominally on the same side shouldn’t do his chances any harm given Chirac’s popularity.
2- Thanks for the call to comment !
Last poll announced tonight :
IPSOS (26/27 january)
1st round
Sarkozy 35 (+3)
Royal 26 (-3) [her lowest yet]
Le Pen 11
Bayrou 11
I spare you all the different leftists, greens and far-right loonies : none has more than 3.5%
2nd round
Sarkozy 54 (+2)
Royal 46 (+2)
It’s the biggest lead recorded yet
Chris I think you mean minus 2 for Sego in the second round. David you’re absolutely right about the benefit of being seen as at odds with Chirac. The french do not want a continuation of the Chiraquie by other means.
5- I think you (and Tim) summaried well the weaknesses of the Royal campaign. But it is still very hard to imagine that she cannot make it to the secound round.
For that to happen, her votes would need to go massively towards Bayrou, which seems difficult because traditional left-wing voters distrust this former member of right-wing cabinets.
My own bet is a stabilization of Royal rating between 25 and 28 percent before the announcement oh her program on 11 february.
The pressure will be huge because it is her last line of defense “wait, I will tell you all on 11 february”. If it disappoints the media (or if the media choose to present it as disappointing…) she’s toast.
If she manages to bounce back from this point, the campaign could still be open. But she will need huge media support, and she is not getting it now…
Thanks blue moon, I forgot about the Iran issue even though it’s potentially the most pitiful example. She and her advisers know her position is absurd but she won’t back off it. In theory, it would make France by far the most anti-Tehran government on the planet - far more aggressive than the Bush administration. She just screwed up and can’t confess to it. We’re still three months away from the election; she’s stuck with an unworkable foreign-policy position and she hasn’t unveiled a domestic policy yet. Is she going to master those briefs any more effectively? I doubt it.
Your point on Bayrou too is well-made. He’s now looking at 14% polling and, in theory, could do a Le Pen. That would be a far tougher prospect for Sarkozy.
Lord Levy arrested for conspiracy to pervert the course of justice!!!!
Oh well, that’s the end of the French thread. I’m off to see Sarkozy.
Chris I agree that Sego is unlikely to miss the second round; just that her shambles of a campaign can’t continue much longer. Already it’s clear that some of the ‘tenors’ of the Socialist Party are muttering more or less openly. It wouldn’t take a lot more for this to boil over with open criticism.
Ruth Turner to be next?????
8- yes sorry I meant -2
and I share your point : the French (and I am a good sample on this one) are really fed up with Chirac but they know that Sarkozy is much more different of him and his policies than the soci alists..
I mentioned Royal’s problems with the media :
Concerning newspapers (even if our papers do not support officially a candidate as yours do) :
Le Figaro and France-soir, traditionnally right-wing support Sarkozy. What is more damagin for Royal is that Le Monde (the high-brow, center-left paper of the parisian elite), Le journal du dimanche (our ONLY sunday newspaper, supposedly neutral) are turning against her.
Even worse, Libération (the bible of Parisian bobos, very anti-Sarkozy)had two cover stories in a row (yesterday and today) about voters fleeing Royal to join Bayrou…
As for television networks : TF1 (the largest audience, especially for the news) is very pro-Sarkozy. Public networks (France2, France 3) are much more pro-Royal but they are limited by strict rules of air time for each candidate.
12- Please cheer Nicolas for me !
I hope that idiot, Lord Levy, hasn’t killed this French thread stone dead.
My parents live in France (have done since 2000) so I’m finding this very interesting reading.
15. Chris(from Paris)
What are the expectations for the Parliament elections?
17.”I hope that idiot, Lord Levy, hasn’t killed this French thread stone dead”
I’ve a soluation: all Levy discussions can be moved to the UKIP thread. So if people want to discuss it, they’ll post there
10 - Yes her most annoying flaw is this absolute incapacity to back down on any random comment she made (and she talks too much for her own good…).
A good summary of her campaign was given to me last week by a senior member of her economic team. I asked him (I was out of the country for two weeks): how did the beginning of the campaign go ? he answered : it would have begun before if the campaign was not already finished…)
Chris, have you seen the footage from outside Downing Street today and Sarkozy’s slip - Freudian or otherwise?
Sarkozy said “La façon dont il a conduit la Grande-Bretagne avec la résolution du problème de l’Irlande du Nord, le plein emploi, la modernisation du pays, c’est quelque chose qui doit nous faire réfléchir … Les socialistes européens peuvent être fiers de ce qu’a fait l’un des nôtres … l’un des leurs”.
“The way he has run Great Britain with his resolution of the Northern Irish problem, full employment, the modernisation of the country is something that should make us all reflect .. European socialists can be proud he is one of ours .. one of theirs”.
Andrea, the legislative elections always go the same way as the presidentials. When “cohabitation” has occurred, it’s been because a presidential term overlapped with a legislative term - something that won’t happen again since they are both five years - or because that clown Villepin persuaded his boss to dissolve parliament two years into his term.
Who cares about an election in France when we have one of our Prime Minister’s closest cronies arrested?
This could be as big as Watergate and illustrates how low Labour have now sunk!
18- No one knows for sure. An election last year would have produced a landslide for the left.A parliamentary election now would be very close as UMP is getting less unpopular on the bandwagon of the Sarkozy campaign + they have a built-in advantage in terms of seats, as rural areas (more right-wing) are a bit over-represented in the national assembly.
I think anyway that the parliamentary vote will go the way of the presidential election. Whatever the result, I think UMP will lose at least a bit of its very large majority.
22/24. Thanks.
What is the state of Les Verts (didn’t they have a infight about the choice of their presidential candidate?) and the various Left wing parties?
One sobering thought for Labour is that if there is a trial it’s quite likely that the defence will be casting blame elsewhere. Scooter Libby is already denouncing the White House for setting him up as a scapegoat. A trial this year or early next could ruin GB’s attempts at a come-back….
As for Sarko’s slip ‘revelataire’ or otherwise it’s being run by TV France 1 as something which will annoy ( grincer) the Socialists not please them. I don’t think it’s damaging; on the margin it reinforces an image that he’s running more from the centre which is exactly what he wants. Ironically Sego has also praised TB in the past which has annoyed other socialists for whom TB is far too Right Wing.
New thread time I should think… Mike
The latest poll published on the Le Figaro web-site shows Sarkozy with 31% and Royal with 29% in the first round, and respectively 51% and 49% in the second round. I would not count ones chickens yet that Royal is out for the count.
I agree with the analysis for once (which might frighten some contributors). That’s why I shorted Royal to the tune of $120 when she was 50-56 on Intrade.com . Despite the hype she is not really a serious candidate and the polls probably exaggerate her support because her supporters are younger (and therefore less likely to vote).
25- Les Verts always have infights ! During their last congress, six different factions competed for the top jobs…
Dominique Voynet, their candidate, is stuck to 2% in the polls, which means that they will have difficulties to negotiate national assembly seats with the PS. Their problem is that they cannot win anywhere (except maximum 3-4 constituencies) if a socialist stands and therefore their result can be predicted with accuracy before the election, as soon as we know where they will stand…
The communists are in a different situation as they rely on their local strongholds (mainly in the eastern and northern parisian suburbs) to maintain a group of their own in the national assembly. However, they have made a mess of the far-left’s attempts to present a single candidate, tying to impose their party leader… well the far-left has now 5 candidates (for a maximum total of 10% of the votes)
28- the poll you mention is the very first presidential poll from LH2. We don’t know yet what to think of this newcomer ! the fact is that all presidential polls since january 15 give sarko as the winner which is an interesting trend.
you have also to consider the trend for a particular firm.
I you consider IPSOS her is the evolution
6 january NS 50 SR 50
20 january NS 52 SR 48
27 january NS 54 SR 46
at least the trend is not bad for sarkozy…
But you’re right the campaign is still a long way from its end. As I already mentioned, the next importnat step will be Royal’s presentation of her program. Her only hope of winning is to play it well
30. Thanks.
How many seats do Les Verts have now in the Assemble Legislative? 3?
The fragmentation ability of French far Left is difficult to match (they make Italian Left look like an united front)
32- yes 3 : two of them in Paris (Cochet and Billard) + 1 in the suburbs of Bordeaux (Mamère). And they managed to officially reject the party’s support to 1 of the 3 (Mamère) because he has another mandate (regional councillor) !!!
Their presidential candidate (Voynet) is in the senate
32- they asked for 30 “winnable” seats in their negotiations with the socialists. I’m pretty sure they will get less than that !
Apologies for a very ‘novice’ question - but how much power does the President have, and how much is down to the parliament? (ie is it analogous to the States, or more like the UK with HM the Queen as Head of State but no ‘real’ power, or somewhere in between?) I know that all that is reported in the UK about France is the Presidentials, but surely the Parliamentary elections are important too - if so, how do they work (Single Member FPTP; Regional STV etc.?)
Ed Davey says cash-for-honours has the “whiff of Watergate” and compares Blair to Nixon. Sky News says statement made with authority of Ming Campbell….
Ed Davey says cash-for-quesions has “whiff of Watergate” and compares Blair to Nixon. Sky News says statement made with the authority of Ming Campbell…
O/T - Blairswitch: Q1 is now down to 12.5, Q2 favourite (just) ahead of Q3.
It looks as if someone’s swept the price down on Q1 on the back of this evening’s news re Levy. I’m not sure that’s very sensible. There’s less than 9 weeks left this quarter (in fact, we’ll be exactly a third of the way through it at 11.40 this evening). It looks as if the investigation still has some way to go and even if charges are brought under PCJ, it won’t necessarily directly implicate Blair (which charges under the 1925 Honours act would).
ps. Didn’t Roger predict the police would wind their investigation up today? That alone should have told us it would step up a gear!
Is French culture somewhat sexist, in the way that I think it is in Britain? - a man making a slip is seen as a bit of a chump but often can laugh it off, but a woman making a slip is an amateur with poor clothes sense and an unsatisfactory hairdo. To an outsider there seems a striking crossover, in that Sarko seems the candidate more keen on drastic change, yet also the more old-fashioned in appearance - another classic middle-aged male politician rather than a break with tradition. (Yes, that’s a reverse sexist comment, isn’t it?)
As andrea suggested, am posting briefly on the Levy arrest on the UKIP thread.
Mark Senior about. Perhaps you’d care to respond to Welsh Goat on the Poll thread just below.
35- The constitutional system is supposed to give preeminence to the president, because he is directly elected. If he has a majority in the national assembly, he is first incommand, and the PM is his number 2, that can be sacked at will if things go wrong.
But if the majority in the national assembly is opposed to the president, the PM gets all the power as Chirac experienced between 1997 and 2002 (as Mitterrand did both in 86-88 and 93-95). The personal powers of the President are very limited, excluding supreme command of the aArmed forces and a major role in diplomacy.
Our parliamentary elections are held in 577 constituencies electing one MP each in a two round elections. All candidates geting at least 12.5% of registered voters in the first round are qualified for the secound round (if they do not withdraw). The second round is FPTP whatever the number of candidates (it used to be mostly two candidates, but the rise of front national lead to an increase of three-way elections).
This quite fair system ensures that nearly all our MPs are elected by more than 50% of their constituency’s voters, and is much les complicated tha STV and other complicated systems.
31, How likely is co-habitation i.e Sarkozy winning the Presidency but being lumbered with a Socialist Assembly as the French get scare in case he’s a “Liberal.”
re 35. AFAIK all French elections are on the run-off system so if no-one gets an absolute majority in the first round the two leaders do it again a fortnight later. It’s a bit like AV would be if you knew beforehand who was going to come first and second - of coruse you can often surmise this.
Nick That’s ridiculous. Read the thread. It’s not just one slip; it’s been a series of blunders which no male would have got away with either. Quite frankly her femininity greatly helped her to the nomination against a much better qualified male candidate; Dominique Strauss-Kahn but sooner or later the utter vacuity of her campaign was going to catch up with her.
34.”they asked for 30 “winnable” seats in their negotiations with the socialists. I’m pretty sure they will get less than that”
to please all their factions they probably need more than 30 seats
39- Well nick the fact is precisely that Sarkozy laughs it off when he makes such a slip. The problem with Royal is that her team is convinced that she cannot do that to prerve her credibility so they try to find excuses or explanations even for trivial slips…
One example : SR said on TV “1 woman out of 3 in France dies beaten by her partner, this is a terrible figure we have to face”.
Well everybody laughed because we understood she misquoted a report published the day before saying that 1 beaten woman dies every three days in France (an appaling statistic by the way).
But she wanted to explain her slip and her advisors pleaded that she meant that one beaten woman dies in the end, a statistic they apparently made up…
Sorry I meant “one beaten woman out of three dies in the end, a statistic they apparently made up… “
40 Punter , have done so .
48. Seen it added my tuppeny worth as well.
This thread I must think a Socialist PM/Sarko Pres offers good value. Can I bet on that. I think Royal’s gaffes will hand Sarko the Presidency but he still scares many French who might want to constrain him with a Socialist National Assembly majority.
Yes Royal does look a bit accident prone, but Levy has been arrested again on charges of perverting the course of justice (max sentence life).
Just when you thought Labours woes could not get any worse, they do!
(more on my blog BTW)
Looks like Sarkozy is going to be a shoe in as well!
Chris and all,
The latest Ipsos has a swing back to Royal - now Sarko 51, Sego 49. Here’s the link
I sense Sego was sinking for about 2 weeks but has now managed to stabilize. The biggest danger would be the possibility of Bayrou clipping her in the first round. Which ironically could be very problematic for Sarkozy. I think he’d have more trouble beating Bayrou. A lot of his centrist support - in favor of economic reform, but think he’s a bit of a thug, amongst the young and the elements of the middle class - would go to Bayrou that he otherwise might get.
This thread I must think a Socialist PM/Sarko Pres offers good value. Can I bet on that. I think Royal’s gaffes will hand Sarko the Presidency but he still scares many French who might want to constrain him with a Socialist National Assembly majority.
I think its a possibility - its probably worth laying some money at least, depending on the odds.
Must dash, model engines to build, will pop back later!
39. Also Nick, I don’t think Sarkozy ever has been or attempted to be characterised as “another classic middle-aged male politician rather than a break with tradition” - in fact far from it. He plays the forward progressive; his opponents play him as a dangerous revolutionary; neither side plays him as the ‘conservative’.
Ben P. Chris and you are at odds about the latest Ipsos poll. I looked at the link you suggested and couldn’t get any figures up. Are you sure it really is the latest poll; if you loook at the Ipsos site it hasn’t yet put up the poll Chris mentioned. Another poster mentioned a poll which was on the Figaro web site but I can’t see any sign of it. I’d be grateful for your elucidation.
52 - If you follow you ownlink you will see that the last Ipsos is the one i mentioned 54/46…
you mistook ipsos for LH2, a new pollster I mentioned earlier (there is no swing, this is their first presidential poll).
And i don’t know if your optimism is justified…as 30 socialist MPs met this afternoon around François Hollande to try to find solutions to “get the campaign on a good track”…
Cymru Mark/Gwynfa about. BTW Mark Senior replied on your reply Welsh Goat.
57. Any view on co-habit at fifty.
56 - the ipsos poll is visible with the link ben p provided (you have to choose it in a menu in the middle of the page)
It is not disclosed on their website because it will be published in Le Point on thursday.
For Any french-speaking sceptic, here is the AFP press report :
http://fr.news.yahoo.com/30012007/202/presidentielle-sarkozy-l-emporterait-par-54-selon-ipsos.html
58- Well i’m not sure French people are so keen to get another “cohabitation”, even if the memory of the bitter PM/President oppositions during 1997-2002 is fading away…
I think that if the French elect Sarkozy they will give him a mandate at parliamentary level, because they would elect someone really presenting the will to be very active as president. In Royal’s case or even (let’s be playful) Bayrou’s case, it would be quite different as they clearly explained they want to inspire policies but play a more distant role on day-to-day government business
Thanks Chris that’s very clear. One thing Sarko has to do soon is resign as interior minister otherwise he’s going to get a flood of complaints that he’s abusing the Ministry. Example; his son’s ‘becane’ ( bike) was nicked and the police used DNA tests successfully to catch the robbers. A police trade union rumoured to be close to Le Pen is demanding an inquiry arguing that an ordinary citizen’s son wouldn’t have got the time and expense of the flics to help him get his bike back…..
60. They may not be keen. But surely the sentiment to Sarkozy is respect not love, and while many French feel they “must” have him in preference to Royal they fear a National Assembly majority may see him impose an “Anlgo-Saxon” system on them and hence may spli ticket.
Sarkozy = Brown
Royal = Cameron
Not perfect, but fun nonetheless… Reveals that if/when Brown gets the Labour leadership everything can change…
When I wrote about him (Cameron) in June, I warned that his ratings were vulnerable because “she has to continue alienating nobody for 11 long, long months”. With the spotlight now on him and Brown and no one else, he can no longer hide the gaping hole at the centre of his policy programme.
It was this void that George Osbourne, tried to fill by promising to make anyone earning less than €4,000 net per month pay wealth tax. Cameron, keen to keep the aspiring middle class on board, dismissed the proposal from the father of his children and hastily put together a taskforce to devise a fiscal plan.
Brown’s political vulnerabilities have been well-aired. He has alienated young voters through his law-and-order image; he is unapologetically pro-American and made the mistake of being photographed shaking Bush’s hand; above all, people know he will shake up Britain’s labour market.
But ironically, it is these very weaknesses that make him hard for Cameron to beat. The British know this man and his policies inside out and yet he consistently commands around 50% of second-round voting intentions. People know nothing about Cameron except that he’s an attractive, articulate man. As his policies and missteps emerge, he will alienate either the conservative core vote or the centrist floaters.
Enough said.
Chris from Paris,
You could be right, although the website I linked to doesn’t show up on the computer I am currently using. There, is another polls besides the LH2 poll, an IFOP poll, which I think must be the other poll I saw with a 51 to 49 score from 1/30. I don’t know what the trend lines on that are.
Jonathan at 63,
I think thats a bit strange that Brown is perceived as “pro-American” in Britain. I know that the Bush administration doesn’t like him at all - they know he’s not a “true believer” like ole’ Tone.
Then again, both Tony and Dubya are gone within two years - all for the better, IMO. I think America’s rep. can only go up as a result.
Mark Senior. welsh Goat has picked you up again
re Royal, if you’re going to wobble it’s best to get it in early. I wouldn’t want to call it yet as there’s a lot of time for things to change and change again.
63. Osbourne is the father of Cameron’s children??
Punter,
Regarding your “Socialist PM/Sarko Pres” notion, I think there’s no chance of that. Like I said, there are no examples of this under the Fifth Republic unless there was an overlap because the president served a seven-year term while parliament served for five. The only other example was when Chirac dissolved the national assembly in 1997 two years into his presidency convinced the parties that supported him would be elected. The switch to Mitterrand in 1981 was a huge deal but the French still gave him a majority. If they go for Sarkozy, they will give him his majority.
Commenters who think Royal’s having an early “wobble” or is still doing okay despite the serial gaffes are missing the real point. Sarkozy is a polariser so he was always going to show up around 50% in the polls unless he screwed up and not show much more. Royal’s pitch was that she was a new thing, a uniter, someone who could phase in necessary change but do it without pain. People bought this because she was credible, she had ministerial and gubernatorial experience but not the kind that makes people sick of the sight of you nationally. But what they didn’t realise was that there were either no policies or, if there were, they’d be the same old delusional socialist patter. They also hadn’t realised (neither had I and I’ve followed her career for some time) was just how inept and ill-briefed she would be on critical points of foreign policy. As the policies emerge, I think things can only get worse for her. If she wins in May, it will be because Sarkozy messes up and right now he looks a pro.
69. Really. If you’re a French well it must be Sarko but I don’t wicked Anglo Saxon Capitalism voter, sould they not do it.
New poll:
Lab 29%
Con 34%
Lib 21%
It appears that Mystic Moon has beaten me to it. It’s in tomorrow’s Indy apparently according to Newsnight just
Labour down 8 points. Mostly due to the prisons crisis IMO.
72 - sounds very odd but, as with all others, within the margin of error - not sure I believe Labour below 30% or the tories at 34%. Sounds like a big ‘others’ tally. These latest polls must have saved Mingthuselah’s hide though. The May locals just look worse and worse for Labour.
There are so many clever people on this site who understand these things that I rarely, if ever, express a view on the headlines from opinion polls, but tonight, I will. These figures look wrong. Plain wrong. Tories too low, Lib Dems too high, Labour a bit low but it might be right. But the Others - 16%! Much too high. Who has done this Poll?
74 If it’s CR, the tories are down too and the Libdems are way up (they were very low last time)
76. Augustus Carp, I think the LD figures look right (around 20%). If Labour is at 29%, I would have expected the tories being higher than 34% though. As you said, others are high though
77 ifit’s CR it’s not worth the effort of discussing it - the figures just don’t tally either with other polls or with local election results.
the figures mentioned in Newsnight IIRC were Lab -8, Tories -2, LD +5
77 Yes the figure last time 20/12 showed LIBDEMs at 14%
Poll looks ludicrous
78 I can see what you mean, Andrea, it’s just that I would have thought the Lib Dems would be below 20% in “peacetime”, but only get above 20% when there is a campaign on. There hasn’t been much press coverage of the Lib Dems recently - they are squeezed out by Labour bad news and analyses of the Conservatives (or UKIP, if you read the Telegraph!)
83. Augustus, I think some posters mentioned that in latest weeks Libdems have started to put out Focus leaflets and various pieces on local papers and that was probably why they moved up in all polls.
Well CR polls are all over the place, but it was inevitable Labour would lose out after the Home Office fiascos.
Can someone please advise what CR means
Andrea, I have just been listening to the news on the radio - and they interviewed a Lib Dem about the Lord Levy arrest, not a Tory. Maybe they are getting more publicity than I thought.
Found these figures for a Communicate poll in the Independent in November on UK polling report. I can’t remember if there was one in December, but the one mentioned on Newsnight was for the Independent also?
http://www.ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/915
87.Augustus, they are doing the media rounds today because they will openly mention the W word in relation to the investigation.
87 And on Newsnight Ed Davy the LIBDEM got much more of a say than Tory Nigel Evans -Sunday saw quite a bit of Ming on TV and last week a fair bit of Nick Clegg
All opinion polls are ridiculous but some are more ridiculous than others.
Found the December figures, looking at this it seems it is a monthly poll for the independent and according to those figures the Libdems have jumped 7% in 1 month!
http://news.independent.co.uk/uk/politics/article2110320.ece
90.”on Newsnight Ed Davy the LIBDEM got much more of a say than Tory Nigel Evans ”
I think that everytime Nigel Evans pops up on TV, he loses votes for the tories!
As ridiculous as those figures seem on Anthony Wells’ figures Labour would still be the largest party: 287-268-62. The Baxter figures are 272-286-59.
The Lib Dems were never at 14% so I think this is b********s, after all how the hell can the Tories slip support with the current news agenda. CR is Mori with knobs on.
89 Sorry, Chris D, the “W word”? What’s the second letter?
No past vote weighting on CR polls, are there? so that implies Labour would be clearly below 30% using a more state of the art methodology, the Tories a couple of % higher. Horrific for Labour if true, but the extreme volatility of these CR polls does call into question their value.
CR - Communcate Research or more commonly Crapulous Randomness
96 - Watergate.
If you click on “latest UK polls” on the side panel you will all see that CR?Independent have published a poll monthly since October - they dont appear any more volatile than any of the others - Tories 34 -38 (twice at 34%)
98 - thanks
96 - a-t-e-r-g-a-t-e
97 - Not doing past vote weighting benefits Labour but not by a constant amount. I.e. one sample may be more/less representative than another - therefore it becomes difficult to tell whether changes are genuine or simply sample volatility. It also means MoE is more difficult to be sure of.
Leave a vacumn - Don’t be suprised what fills it !!
I wonder what odds we could get on Labour polling at 25% at some point over the next few months?
196 - Looking at tomorrow’s front pages that might be sooner rather than later.
100&104. If you want to take this poll seriously, good luck!
96. Sorry Augustus, I was being cheeky because another poster was implying that conservative poster’s on this site were too quick to judge the people being investigated by the police.
blimey!
107 I agree that CR should not be taken too seriously. But the Lib Dems have had a very good start to 2007.
re 105, or even 3rd. I’d certainly expect them to come 3rd in the local elections.
one whiff of a poll, however dodgy, and the well-behaved ,self-policed ordinance to keep this thread for the French falls completely apart
Oui, d’accord. Avant les singes capitulard fromagistes!
Tim at 70 - I think that’s about right. I think people want an alternative to Sarko, but there isn’t a good one. Bayrou, perhaps - but he’s in a minor party. If Bayrou were a part of a stronger more prominent organization, I think he could win.
107 - “If you want to take this poll seriously, good luck!” - shall we ignore the other two polls to have come out in the last week as well?
110. “or even 3rd.”
maybe “others” will pass them
“I’d certainly expect them to come 3rd in the local elections”
As I said, if Labour isn’t third, in the national project % of 2007 locals, the Libdems will probably have a disappointing round of elections. So a third place for Labour is likely.
Maybe it’s a good thing - Royal seems to be more vacuous as every day goes by.
What have the Lib Dems actually DONE to hit 21%? Not a thing. As ever, when people are disgruntled, they say the first thing that comes into their head and that’s usually ‘Lib Dem’. It will mean nothing when it comes to a general election. And people who compare Cash for Peerages to Watergate really should read All The President’s Men. That was a conspiracy to hide evidence of officially sanctioned burglaries, illegal wiretaps and major forgeries. Not quite the same as covering up an attempt to circumvent a law you introduced yourselves to stop vain men offering other vain men the chance to swap political funding for either three or four letters in front of their surname.
117 - 21% is still 2% less than this month’s ICM poll .
The 4 January polls are actually very consistent in one way. They all have very similar Conservative leads:
Populus 7% (39-32)
ICM - 6% (37-31)
YouGov - 7% (38-31)
Comm Res - 5% (34-29)
117 I think this is the first poll to be fully affected by this.
OK it might be a rogue poll and nothing to do with anything. But there are other reasons for people to switch to the Lib Dems.
Hype Alert:
If we put together:
(i) these 34:29:21 figures; and
(ii) the accepted wisdom that “LD” + “Other” tends to be pretty constant; and
(iii) the unusually high “Other” figure (16%ish):
We end up with the possibility that the real figures are more likely to be 34:29:27:10.
Put that in your Baxter etc and smoke it.
PS This is a public winding-up-Tories-service announcement
121 -
Thanks for the smile that thought brought to my face…
114.SBS, I nearly added that I was happy to agree with the other January polls. I think that they have been consistant, but I don’t think I would believe a 7% increase in one month for Labour or us to be fair.
re 117. No the Honours (Prevention of Abuses) Act is a good Tory Act dating back to 1925
It’s only the fact that previous CR polls have had the LDs on a stupidly low 14% that makes it odd that they now record 21%. Many of us have been saying that the LDs are at around 21% for months… Maybe CR are just returning to the medium?
Also, I see that James Gray has been reselected in Wiltshire North. Good new for the Lib Dem campaign there
I have not commented on earlier polls as so much of the “up one, down two” nonsense is just random variation. But three in a row have shown a large and solid upward trend for the Lib Dems.
For me, this is a New Year thing. 2006 was seen as the year of Cameron (coming in close to the end of 2005) and - to put it kindly - a turbulent one for the Lib Dems. Many Lib Dems edged back to Labour to take on a revived Tory Party or back to the Conservatives themselves. But this is 2007. It is now back to three party politics as usual with people tiring of Dave and impatient for Blair to call it a day. Two to three arduous years to a general election and all to play for. Interesting times!
Completely O/T but I have just watched the link to the Politics Show from the recent thread on Tony Blair’s willingness to carry on as PM. Mike S and others argued that Blair looked tired, “deluded” etc and ready to throw in the towel.
I feel TB should “Go and go now !” but my impression of his performance was that, yes he did look tired but probably had the flu or similar. His voice was gravelly and he definitely looked under par. No euphemism intended here, he just looked as though he had a bad cold.
But he appeared determined to carry on with his agenda and leave at a time of his choosing. He won’t want to go any earlier than he has indicated as otherwise he will feel forced out. I can’t see him choosing to step down until at least after the May elections, unless forced by events to do so. He clearly still regrets being forced to announce a departure timetable. And GB was right to make this happen from his own point of view, as otherwise TB would have gone on and on!
Evening all! As a seasoned psephologist,I find it surprising that more comparison is not drwn beteween the now and the 1983- 1987 parlaiment:
(a)Then,a strong third force existed-the old SDP-Liberal Alliance
(b)A young,seemingly photogenci leader of HM Oppostion had been elected-Mr.Neil Kinnock
As I recall,major policy issues (prinicpally uniteral nuclear disarmament) derailed Kinnock in late 1986-will history repeat itself with a nugget of right-wing spite surviving DC’s policy review-I rather suspect it will-and look forwards to history repeating itself:lol:
I wouldn´t myself have called Kinnock photogenic, Patrick, and I wouldn´t call Cameron photogenic either. So you may be right in principal, while mistaken (in my opinion) in the term you employ.