Dunfermline: When the betting was last completely wrong
January 31st, 2007
Like the Casino decision a warning of the dangers of following the market
After yesterday’s sensational news that the betting outsider, Manchester, had won the race for Britain’s new super casino I thought I would look back at the last time when the betting markets got it totally wrong.
For next week, no doubt, Lib Dem will be celebrating the first anniversary of the party’s sensational victory over Labour in the Dunfermline by election which took place in the aftermath of Charles Kennedy having to stand down as leader and the tabloid revelations on Mark Oaten and Simon Hughes - two of the main figures to emerge in the contest to replace him.
A few days beforehand YouGov in the Daily Telegraph had put the party on 13%. How could the then leaderless party succeed in the seat next door to Gordon Brown’s?
These are the final fifty minutes of the Politicalbetting threads before the Dunfermline result was announced. The swings in the betting are truly amazing.
Read it. It’s exciting and amazing how the betting market got it so completely wrong right at the end. Quite why punters were piling into Labour in those final five minutes is not clear.
This is a salutary warning not to just follow favourites
LDs shortening on betfiar re DF.
Tabman February 9th, 2006 at 11:42 pmHas any government EVER had such a good -election record?
The Professor February 9th, 2006 at 11:42 pm
LibDem agent in Dunfermline says they are ‘optimistic of retaining second place’.
Nick Palmer MP February 9th, 2006 at 11:43 pmProfessor) If you correct for the lower number of -elections these days (longer life expectancy and younger MPs), the Tories in the 1950s were about equal - or arguably slightly better since they actually gained Sunderland South while they were in government.
book value February 9th, 2006 at 11:45 pmMoney going on Lib Dems in Dunfermline and no one laying Labour What is going on
Mark Senior February 9th, 2006 at 11:47 pmYes, shortening quickly
Tabman February 9th, 2006 at 11:49 pmJack W has played a ramp very cleverly?
Lewis February 9th, 2006 at 11:50 pmNo doubt you will all win pots of money betting on the libdems even though LABOUR will win. Gordon really must regulate your activities.
The Professor February 9th, 2006 at 11:53 pm
Well with a 48% turnout then Labour have almost certainly won it. All Labour losses in elections have been on much lower turnouts = this is almost GE territory - in the same way that Hartlepool was.
Rob February 9th, 2006 at 11:55 pm(Professor) Have you no sense of irony - “Gordon really must REGULATE…
You are without doubt (alas, even including Jack W…sorry old bean) the most consistently hilarious contributor to our proceedings: it’s the way you tell ‘em
John O February 9th, 2006 at 11:58 pm• “Has any government EVER had such a good -election record? ”
It’s hard to say. This government ensures that -elections don’t occur in marginal Labour-held seats.
Sean Fear February 10th, 2006 at 12:09 am• BTW No ramping on my part ! Haven’t had a brass farthing on D & FW. …… if you said on the Lib Dem leadership …. I plead guilty to the odd shilling on Huhne and a few pennies on Ming. I’m a loser on the Rev ….. but short of divine intervention !!
Anyway Lib Dems are in bouyant mood at the count ….. it’s close … but my tame BBC mans says they may have pulled it off ….. HEALTH warning ….. still counting.
Jack W February 10th, 2006 at 12:09 amNews 24 - lib dems look like they’ve won according to Curtice.
by ukpaul February 10th, 2006 at 12:08 amFrom BBC- ‘Lib Dems may have done it’
by Tim February 10th, 2006 at 12:08 amMoney available on lib dems betfair at 2.0 - £100 if you want it!
by ukpaul February 10th, 2006 at 12:09 am
BBC website says turnout is 48.74%. I think that’s about 34,000 votes in total.
by Alan J February 10th, 2006 at 12:10 amGone now.
by ukpaul February 10th, 2006 at 12:10 amSky News- ‘village vote’ may win it for Labour. VERY close.
by Tim February 10th, 2006 at 12:10 amNot any more Amazing !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
by Mark Senior February 10th, 2006 at 12:11 amUpdate ….. recount possible …. “Labour glum”. HEALTH warning still counting !!
by Jack W February 10th, 2006 at 12:15 amSNP increased vote so it may have taken enough away from Labour for Liberals to win - Nicola Stureogn on Grampian TV (sp)
by marcia February 10th, 2006 at 12:16 amWhich media is covering the By Election? Will Andrew Neil’s programme stay on until the result, or will I have to rely on the radio? (I don’t have Sky etc.)
by Augustus Carp February 10th, 2006 at 12:18 amFor the Lib Dems to win they must have taken even more from Labour.
by Dean February 10th, 2006 at 12:18 am
It would be astonishing if LD won - truly astonishing, given the last month. Could be quite a significant blow to the current political scene, be it Blair, Cameron or SNP. Would also make Nick Palmer look like an utter idiot for his comments here over the last days. Would also be the first bye-election win from Labour by Lib Dems EVER. I dont believe it yet!…
by Mark February 10th, 2006 at 12:20 am=“Would also be the first bye-election win from Labour by Lib Dems EVER.” Were you not still up for Brent E and Leicester S?
by book value February 10th, 2006 at 12:21 amIn Scotland, that is…
by Mark February 10th, 2006 at 12:21 am
‘Would also be the first bye-election win from Labour by Lib Dems EVER’ What?
by Tim February 10th, 2006 at 12:21 amHave we forgotten Leicester South already? Never mind all the Liberal successes against Labour in by-elections past.
by Iain February 10th, 2006 at 12:21 am
Grampian TV - The SNP vote has gone up - Labour making excuses - Lib crowing - Tories making excuses
by marcia February 10th, 2006 at 12:22 am
The Tories must have utterly collapsed.
by David February 10th, 2006 at 12:22 amWin or lose it is obviously so close my gast is flabbered
by Mark Senior February 10th, 2006 at 12:22 amLabour favourites again on Betfair.
by Chrisco February 10th, 2006 at 12:23 am
Exactly matched on 1.8 now…
by Chrisco February 10th, 2006 at 12:24 amLooks like Labour.
by Mike L February 10th, 2006 at 12:27 amLooks like Labour have held on.
by Tabman February 10th, 2006 at 12:27 am
Betfair seems to suggest Labour have just held on…
by Chrisco February 10th, 2006 at 12:27 amBetfair indicating a Labour hold. I’m afraid
by somewhatanon February 10th, 2006 at 12:28 am
There’s money to be had on Betfair at 1.2 if Labour have won
by Chrisco February 10th, 2006 at 12:29 am
Really poor show from the news channels here.
by ukpaul February 10th, 2006 at 12:30 amJust chattering on
by marcia February 10th, 2006 at 12:30 amAll green. Not getting invoolved again
by somewhatanon February 10th, 2006 at 12:31 am
LD won
by Andrea February 10th, 2006 at 12:32 am
Bloody hell!
by Stephen Tall February 10th, 2006 at 12:33 am
You can’t back the Lib Dems any more!
by Chrisco February 10th, 2006 at 12:33 amMi Lord Rennard does it again !!!!!!!!!!!!!
by Jack W February 10th, 2006 at 12:33 amBloody hell Baldrick!
by Chrisco February 10th, 2006 at 12:33 am
Disaster for Brown! What a slap in the face from the good folk of Fife.
by David February 10th, 2006 at 12:33 am
No recount?
by John13 February 10th, 2006 at 12:34 amWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWW
by Mark Senior February 10th, 2006 at 12:35 am
What a thread and it’s is amazing how the markets got it so wrong.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
“Betfair indicating a Labour hold. I’m afraid
by somewhatanon February 10th, 2006 at 12:28 am
There’s money to be had on Betfair at 1.2 if Labour have won
by Chrisco February 10th, 2006 at 12:29 am”
LD won
by Andrea February 10th, 2006 at 12:32 am”
Labour apparently remained favourite on Betfair even when the candidates were already on stage and with Cathrine Stihler doing her best to keep a decent face (I feared she was going to deliver her baby directly on stage because of the shock).
Yes it was amazing. More so as people reported back how it looked like Labour had held on because of the betting markets when jackW seemed to be indicating what was going to happen.
Talking of JackW, who I hope is recovering well, has any one got any news?
2. Roger has been strangely AWOL of late too…
3 Roger is busy on his new book - Clairvoyancy For Beginners
4. We should have known.
If you had read the book, Marcus, you would have known…………
The new Nostradamus?
8. Rogeradamus?
Re 4 - 8
Vaguely Monty Python esque scene…
Nostradamus in a betting shop, trying to collect winnings.
What would Betfair say on it’s a question of interpretation.
10. More likely that Roger collecting any winnings though
8. Rogeradamus was an offence punishable by death in Rome unless the Damus in question had consented.
welease woger !
12 LOL!
Marcus wins PB Court Jester of the Year Award…and it’s still only January.
14. I’m still in such a good mood after our win on the Casino front yesterday.
Mike S
I assume that after your book, Political Betting, has proved a raging success and both copies are completely sold out, your next volume will be The Collected Wit & Wisdom of PB.com , comprising the very best pearls from our combined efforts?
I guess it would include a Chapter on ‘Things They Wished They Had Never Said’ , incorporating all those dreadful predictions that turned out to be oh so wrong. One or two from the extract above would start you off.
No doubt my own views on how far George Washington would finish behind the other horses at Ascot would be included.
re 2 & 3. You will be pleased to know that I have a very good reason to believe that Jack is doing fine. I understand that he is now active enough to be involved in a very big project which is consuming most of his time but I am hoping that he will be back with us soon.
Jack W is not, of course, his true identity though most of what he says about himself is actually true. He has had an amazing life.
re 16. No the book will be called ‘Things They Wished They Had Never Said - VOLUME 1 - Roger”.
Maybe my memory is playing tricks on me, but I thought that people were talking about / predicting / expecting a Lib Dem victory two days before the result, partly because of the postal votes.
Re 17, Mike thanks for the update, re 18
re 16 as well. The book is now up on the publishers’ website
Speaking of publishing, cough, cough, Chrisco has just dipped his toe into the murky world of blogging.
A Whiff of Watergate? More Like a Pinch of Plame…
I think it illustrates that the market might be right more times that it is wrong, but compared with sensible level headed analysis its quite mediocre. One in the eye for ‘efficient market theorists’ to go with the farce of 2000, 2004 and 2006.
17. Only ‘most’ eh? teasing, Mike….
22 - Gosh, I thought you were much younger. If so, that photo on the left doesn’t do you justice
Well done, Mike.
One of the best ever threads (Italian election comes close). Pity it can´t be animated to up date at appropriate intervals.
Nick Palmer MP,
Have any of your constituents been killed or injured in Iraq or Afghanistan?
Have any Police officers received any serious injury whilst serving the community in your parliamentary constituency?
by Martin Day January 30th, 2007 at 1:22 pm
25. Lol - I was thinking it might look a bit like it was meant to be my mugshot.
Maybe I’ll move it down a bit…
19 My memory of the night was that the LibDems were in the lead but it was thought that the outlying villages whose ballot boxes would be last to count would be solidly Labour which turned out to be incorrect .
27. Is that a candidate for ‘things they wish they had never said’?
Welsh Goat re your post the Vale but out goes Sully a strongly Tory area so as far as the Vale is concerned no real change for the Tories. It is hhowever likely to be very good news for the Lib Dems in Cardiff South a fresh rootless tranche of voters to work on with bar charts. I think your source may be right. I can’t see the Lib Dems doing it but they may give Labour a little fright right. If you mean the Tories gaining Bridgend well maybe in a 1983 year, but I can’t see why Mark Senior doesn’t hold water. They must make real progress this year though.
187. Joan Peters along with another Tory has left the Tory group on Swansea Council. At the same time a Lib Dem has joined the Tories. Probably Peters did not want to lose her cabinet allowance
191. A further factor in the Vale is the fact that the constituency has gained a strong Tory area from Bridgend. In Bridgend the Tories polled more votes than the Lib Dems in the 2004 Council elections. The Lib Dem cabinet might not even get its budget through this year. Next year’s council budget looks even worse for them if they are still in power. Add to this a pretty weak Assembly candidate who is making no impact and Labour looks safe in Bridgend at the Assembly and next parliamentary election. If Labour ever loses this seat it will be to the Tories.
by Welsh Goat January 31st, 2007 at 8:51 am
27: Martin, I don’t in general respond to constituency-specific queries here, as it’s more of a forum for general debate, and there are other media for constituency discussions. But if you’re a Broxtowe resident, please contact me directly on NickMP1@aol.com and I’ll be glad to respond.
30. No i was just making a point about an MP making a comment in their name. It is easy to occustrate a difficult situation for the said MP.
But i would say Nick Palmer, fortune favours the Brave……… and your obviously not that gullible either!!! Nice one, you dealt with that one well, I have come across MP’s before in different circumstances who would walk right into that!!!
Sorry about spelling etc - I walk into that one everytime!!!!
I am completely lost as to what you are getting at Martin. Clearly Nick Palmer has a better grasp on the situation than I do!
Well it’s history know- (big hint!!!)
When can we expect to see the devolved assembly articles.
Everytime i put something on here i spot a mistake - must be tired or p……!!!
O/T but it amused me. I’ve just noticed that the 33rd (out of 2,539) most signed petition on the 10 Downing St web site is as follows:
We the undersigned petition the Prime Minister to stand on his head and juggle ice-cream.
Under more details is the following:
If he’s not going to resign, the least he can do is provide us with some entertainment.
harking back to the last thread the Scottish poll would mean that Alex Salmond would only win the last NE Scotland list seat - reasonably comfortably it should be said - but it might be causing SNP jitters.
40 What Poll.
BTW Anyone see the Eye piece on the Labour candidate and the funeral wreath. Next it’ll be a horse’s head I guess.
re 41 and several in the last thread. In today’s Scotsman.
Good news about Jack, Mike.
“Jack W is not, of course, his true identity though most of what he says about himself is actually true.”
Is he really only 103?
39: Well, it convinced me. I suggest all PBers sign said petition.
Then again, you have to wonder how much notice they take of a setup where the 11th most popular finished petition is:
“Persuade the Sri Lankan government to open the A9 road and also alert Britain of the killings in Sri Lanka”
45.
“Persuade the Sri Lankan government to open the A9 road”
With our armed forces occupied elsewhere abroad, are we to take it that the Ceylonese are blockading Inverness? Free Jack W!
Mark Senior/Welsh Goat about…..
re 43. Icarus - together with two or three regulars on this site we discovered Jack’s true identity after some good research and inspired guess work. How could we find out if we were correct? I emailed Jack asking for confirmation on the basis that his secret would be safe. I will continue to respect that for as long as Jack as with us.
There is nothing I would love to do more than share this secret because he is really an amazing guy who has had an extraordinary life. We have been honoured that he has been able to enrich our discussions.
I was obviously sceptical having read about it “second hand”, but the petition site actually looks quite good and interesting in certain responses.
Although it was quite amusing that they felt they should respond to the petition calling on him to “resign immediately”
48 - Is he the Duke of Edinburgh?
Either him or possibly Ann Leslie.
48. Is he the Duke of Buccleuch?
What happened to the Professor anyway? Matthew Partridge is back and fighting a doughty rearguard action so if he can do it so can the Prof.
Presumably it’ll be pretty quiet here for the next hour as we all disappear to watch ‘Party Animals’…
There was a great story about the Duke of Buccleuch in the Mail the other day.
Some lefty student wrote a book about the evils of private landownership, especially castigating Buccleuch and accusing him of all sorts of nefarious dealings with his poor tenants.
He sent the MS to His Grace for comment or response. The Duke sent it back with just a single word altered.
The student had written at one point “The Duke of Buccleuch is the largest landowner in Scotland”.
He scored out “Scotland” and substituted “Europe”.
If Jack W is Buccleuch he’s my kind of guy!
54. Buccleuch fits the bill agewise, military-experience-wise and otherwise - but he is a Tory (according to Wikipedia). Jack W is Lib Dem-ish, isn’t he?
We need a soft left Buccleuch, if such a thing exists.
Well if he’s not Jack Webster then I’m stumped…
Sean - Jack is a Clarkeite Tory.
… with a nice line in Scottish Jacobitism
56.”Sean - Jack is a Clarkeite Tory”
Jack is a Blair’s Ba*e
In other words, a combination of two non-existent strands in British politics
Definitely not a LibDem anyway
60. Seriously speaking, he voted for Peter Lilley in 1992, I think he moved to Labour in 1997, I can’t recall what he said to have voted in 2001 and he abstained in 2005
53 - I will NOT be watching Party Animals.
Discussing the Incredible Hulk one time, a friend of mine lamented that far from being the super-hero program it purported to be, it was basically a human interest program. I suspect party animals will be in the same vein. If it turns out to be another ‘The Thick of It’, I might relent, but what I’m expecting is a lot of smug 20- and 30- somethings swearing a lot and having sex and almost never doing anything funny. Not my idea of entertainment.
If the Scottish connection is a smokescreen, then he’s probably Bill Deedes.
Party animals is good but Anti-Tory, what do you expect from the Beeb?
56 If it is him I remember when he was MP for North Edinburgh. He had an accident and broke his spine. Jack said he served in NI and that does not fit with age of the present Duke.
65. Been Googling. Jack W’s son is about 20 years old. His family once owned Scottish estates including the parish of Kinkell. He has an Italian lakeland house, rented out, and a house in Hertfordshire.
He likes beer and cakes.
So Jack W is 103 and his son is 20? I see what Mike meant when he said he was a remarkable man…
66 - the son who gives us reports is uses Kinkell in his postings.
delete ‘is’ - I need a preview button!
I’ve worked it out! Bingo! The joys of Google! But I shan’t reveal the true identity, as Jack W wants to keep his privacy and I respect that utterly*
*unless you want to send me a tenner, of course. We all have a price.
Entertaining though this little game is, do you not think that if Jack chooses to remain anonymous, we should respect that wish?
A Duke’s son is a Marquess - which has often been used by Jack.
70 A tenner, Sean T? I’m surprised you sell yourself so high….
73
…Lest I be misunderstood. 
He likes beer and cakes.
you see, the more you get to know about Jack W the more you think you’d like him if you met him.
72. Only if he has such a senior subsidiary title - about half do, half don’t (and Scottish ones would be a marquis).
71. Yes. And besides, doing research entirely at a computer screen feels like cheating.
He has a fine tam o shanter in the pic I’ve just Googled.
I’m saying no more, unless offered literally dozens of pounds.
Off to watch telly.
77 - Well he’s not the Earl of Kintore if that’s what you’re getting at.
Sean you know nowt. But PtP is right, we shouldn’t out Jack. He’s 103 you know.
78, 79…. I’ve no intention of outing him. But I’m pretty sure I’ve got my man.
80 - that depends on how much of the chaff you managed to discard.
81 - I should have added, “as my googling on all the “clues” given got nowhere!”
My conclusions are pretty explosive, but I’m staying shtum.
Back to the main thread … happy days! I got on at 10-1!
84. Tap your yellow knowledge at 31 then.
Journalist, got some sort of Italian (and probably Scottish) connection, a son and lives in Hertfordshire. God knows how you got anything out of that.
86 it’s too much … I can’t keep the secret any longer … he is …… Lord Kilwillie!!!
Nah too old. Jack is only in his early 50s tops.
88. How do you know that?
Has only voted in General Elections since 1979.
Maybe add 5 years for student apathy
90. Certainly fits the man I have in mind.
87 Tabman. “…he is …..” WATCHING.
Jack W is alive and somewhat better ….. and btw is now 104 !! ….. and as Mike indicated @ 17 hopes to return to the PB saddle in short measure …… that I have to say, given some pre Christmas indications is nothing short of a minor miracle on the same scale as a combination of :
1. Benedict giving up his blog for Lent
2. Jade Goodey becoming Chairman of the CRE
3. Young Matlock heading up The Workers Republican Party of Beaconsfield.
4. Ming’s monthly botox bill not exceeding Labour’s national debt.
See’s you all laters !!
Talk of the devil!
Ave, JW.
93 - lol. Knew we’d tempt him back if we talked about him enough. Never misses a chance to start a scurrilous rumour either
As I pointed out at the time, one of the reasons the betting markets got it wrong on Dunfermline was that someone spent a small fortune matching every bet that was put on the Lib Dems. I won a few grand by putting down a few hundred quid at odds of between 9-1 and 13-1 thanks to their generosity, as did a number of others:
“3 Somone is laying down a lot of money to stop the Lib Dem price shortening any further.
Any bets on the Lib Dems are being snapped up swiftly.
by Sam February 8th, 2006 at 12:30 am “
93 - sorry Jack! Julain Fellowes looks a b*gger in that Tam doesn’t he? Glad to see you’re better.
[93] Welcome back indeed
97 Tabman. Somewhat recovered yes ….. and certainly all the better for the delightful musings on PB.
That said, I’ve only been allowed limited lurking rights as long as I was a good lad … and now the odd post for best behaviour !! …. I’m digging a tunnel too …. and soon I’ll be past the wire and posting free home …..
Sshhhhhhhh …. Matron’s about ….closing down ……
Welcome back, Jack. Have you ordered your copy of Mike’s book yet? If not, be careful - I ordered one copy on line earlier this evening, and received five different confirmations of my order! At this rate it really is going to be a best seller.
92. SeanT - I have found the same man as you. He certainly ticks some of the right boxes. The wry expression seems appropriate too.
99 - well, in celebration I shall post a picture of “Our” Viscount!
Is your tunnel anything like this?
Welcome back, Jack - fabulous to see you!
Guys take a break from politics (maybe not for good like I did) and visit my beer blog - just click my name!
93,99 - A most warm welcome back - hope that the convalesance continues apace and looking forward to having your musings on a full-time basis.
Anyone a fan of Fulham (the place not the team) here? Anyone here live in Fulham and think it’s Central London, as opposed to a suburb?
Anyone agree that the one who won the talent contest to be on Hollyoaks, with brown hair and pout, works in salon, is very very fit
Been away for a few days, so just dropping in to see what the main stories are.
A recovering and present Jack W as the headline act?! All is clearly well on pb.c
See you later + best wishes Jack
(p.s. ‘Racial equality? So I’m like in charge of making those Indians and East Anglians equal to normal people like me?)
“So I’m like in charge of making those Indians and East Anglicans equal to normal people like me?”
Re 54, Commentator,
in fact ROFLMAO!
As heavily trailed in the media, Joe Biden has launched his presidential bid.
Re 93, JackW,
I think option 2 is the most likely!
93. Great to see you back Jack W.
Laters!
Such a shame that Willie Rennie is such a hypocritical scumbag. Campaigning for Cluster Bombs to be banned when he personally profited from the PR and lobbying agency which bigged up their manufacturers Raytheon. he has even visited their factory and praised them since being elected. And it is not even in his a neighbouring constituency. What is the price on him getting kicked out good style come the next GE?