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How long will Tony be there?

Sometimes the still photograph is much more revealing than the moving image. These are screen grabs that I took from Blair’s interview earlier in the day on BBC’s “The Politics Show”. Together they make a powerful combination.

He looked at his most stressed when pressed on the dropping of the Saudi arms case investigation and, of course, when commenting on the handover.

If you have got half an hour it is well worth watching.

Latest Blair exit date betting is here.

Mike Smithson

What’s the political impact of Labour’s cash crisis?

Of all the stories of woe for Tony Blair and Labour in the Sunday papers this morning the one that seems to have the most long term significance is this in the News of the World - the first part of which is reproduced above.

The story goes on to list the money that has to be paid back: “..£2.3MILLION to property developer Sir David Garrard in April, £1.5MILLION to Priory Clinic founder Dr Chai Patel in August, and £250,000 to curry magnate Sir Gulam Noon in October… The party must find another £1MILLION to pay back banking chief Nigel Morris in September and £2MILLION to former minister Lord Sainsbury…Before the next election it will also have to repay £2MILLION to fashion magnate Richard Caring, £1MILLION EACH to former Capita chairman Rod Aldridge and property entrepreneur Andrew Rosenfeld and £400,000 to stockbroker Derek Tullett…Added to that it owes £11MILLION to the Co-operative Bank and another £4MILLION to the Unity Trust Bank…”

It’s hard to see how a General Election could be fought by Labour with that mountain of debt around its neck and this must, surely, rule out any notion of an early election. It’s no wonder that senior figures want a cap on expenditure.

The Tories who are fundraising very effectively with their new leader will have the capability to outspend Brown’s party many times over.

Clearly a major life-line will be the trade unions but what would be the conditions? Could Gordon be forced into a policy straight-jacket that of itself would make winning the next General Election that much harder?

In addition the taunts from the Tories and the Lib Dems if the party is forced into accepting urgently needed cash on onerous terms could affect the whole political environment. It could also be used to take the gloss off Gordon’s economic performance as Chancellor.

The latest General Election betting prices are here.

Mike Smithson

Earlier in the week when were were discussing the electoral impact of Iraq a couple of people emailed asking that I publish again the photo-composition that was produced for the site a few months ago.

Well here it is and it does raise question for both men that are probably not going to go away. Both were supporters of the invasion although Gordon was clearly in a much better position to influence the final decision.

What would have happened if he had resigned at that point - like Robin Cook?

This is not an easy one either for Cameron. We shall see but while the death toll mounts by the day it will stay on the domestic agenda.

Mike Smithson

Did illegal eavesdropping change the course of the Lib Dem election?

Just on a year ago this week Simon Hughes was riding high in his bid to become leader of the Liberal Democrats. Mark Oaten had pulled out of the race a few days earlier and the sentiment had moved sharply away from Ming Campbell following his lacklustre performances at Prime Minister’s Questions.

In the betting Hughes overtook Ming and became the odds on favourite.

These were pretty convincing figures from a reputable pollster and punters started piling money on.

But then, as we all know, it all went wrong for him. Tabloid revelations about his private life emerged and after that it was going to be an uphill battle. To his credit Hughes stayed in the race and did better than most people had predicted.

Yesterday in the Royal phone taps case involving the News of the World Royal Correspondent a second man was also jailed - Glenn Mulcaire, 36, of Sutton, Surrey. The court heard that amongst four other people that had been targeted by Mulcaire was Simon Hughes.

Although all the focus was on the Royal aspects it is believed that Mulcaire was the person who tapped Simon Hughes‘ phone messages, leading to his high-profile “outing”.

If this had not happened would Hughes have done it? Who knows? But we can say that in the aftermath of that ICM poll political gamblers believed he would and he was the odds-on favourite until the stories appeared.

Mike Smithson

Are Labour Planning to Get Rid of the County and District Councils?

In my last year as a borough councillor, in 2003/4, there was much speculation that Labour would seek to get rid of the County and District councils, and replace them with single-tier Unitary Authorities.

Some of the powers of County and District councils would be transferred to the new Unitary authorities. Others would be transferred upwards to elected regional assemblies. Although this never materialised, I now understand that this idea is being given serious consideration again in government circles, perhaps as one of the new initiatives that Gordon Brown will announce when he becomes Prime Minister.

The advantages of such a scheme from Labour’s point of view are obvious. Currently, there are 6,100 Conservative County and District councillors, 2,500 for Labour, and 2,700 for the Liberal Democrats. Almost certainly, the number of Labour district councillors will be reduced still further in May.

Obviously, the abolition of County and District councils, and their replacement by Unitary Authorities, would have the effect of sharply reducing the number of Conservative councillors. It would also reduce the number of Labour councillors, but Labour has far fewer councillors to lose.

Many constituency associations are dependent on local councillors to keep going, and cutting councillor numbers will reduce the number of local activists. Such a move might also put Conservative councillors at loggerheads with one another, as they sought selection for a much smaller number of seats, and argued over the boundaries of the proposed new authorities.

New Labour has consistently shown it will try out all sorts of constitutional innovations, in order to strengthen its own position relative to that of its opponents, and this would be an obvious move to make.

Last night’s results were generally good for the Conservatives, and poor for Labour.

Cumbria CC - Brampton and Gilsland: Con. 717, Lab.363, BNP 88. Con. hold.
Isle of Anglesey CC - Llanfihangel Esceifiog: Independent 449, Plaid Cymru 273, Lab 56. Independent gain from Plaid Cymru. How on Earth is this seat pronounced?
New Forest DC - Barton: Con. 990, Lib Dem 426, Ind 277, Lab 48. Con. hold.
Nottinghamshire CC - Hucknall: Con. 1597, Lab 1554, Lib Dem 1007, UKIP 413, Green 350. Con. gain from Lab. This was a particularly good Conservative performance, in the light of quite a strong vote for UKIP.
West Oxfordshire DC - Witney Central: Con. 417, Lib Dem 207, Lab 87, Green 68. Con. hold. Labour won this seat as recently as 2002, and is a further sign of their difficulties in the South of England.

Sean Fear is a London Tory activist

Can a Home Secretary ever make it to the top job?

The above, reproduced from the Sun web-site, gives a good flavour of how John Reid is being treated this morning following a whole raft of new problems on his patch. His cabinet position, surely, is not for ambitious high flyers and it is hard to see how he can progress from here.

But why is he still second favourite almost right across the board to take the to job. This does not add up. If, for whatever reason, Gordon does not make it then it is not going to be Reid.

Mike Smithson