Where are the May 3rd punters?
February 7th, 2007
Why is there zilch betting interest in the Scottish and Welsh elections?
These are the latest prices from Betfair on this May’s devolved elections in Scotland and Wales. As you can see the betting has hardly caught the imagination of punters with less than £400 having been traded on the Edinburgh Parliament result and a paltry £77 on Cardiff.
Just look at the Scottish numbers - both Labour and the SNP are at prices much tighter than evens. That does not add up. Also look at the massive gap between the “back” and “lay” prices. There’s almost zilch interest and almost aero liquidity. The less said about Wales the better.
One of the repeated criticisms of Betfair on PBC is that the betting exchange has not opened a market on the Deputy Labour leadership on which I know a lot of serious political punters want to be able to back and lay - something that you can only do on a betting exchange.
I wonder whether one of the reasons is that Betfair has resisted our requests is that activity on some recent political markets has been so low.
With Betfair the bookmaker does not set the odds. This is left to punters to come on the exchange to offer prices. Given all the interest north of the border why is this not happening?
Mike Smithson
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I would be more tempted to bet if the market was who would be First Minister rather than who will win most seats.
I think the Scottish market is comparable to the Irish one (though that has been trading for much longer). Only about £10k matched there so far, trifling really, but probably a good deal more will follow in the run-up to polling day.
“Given all the interest north of the border why is this not happening?”
Scots, Mike. Short arms, deep pockets.
3 Seriously though Mike, I really don’t get Betfair. They resist requests for a market in which there is a genuine interest - the Deputy Leadership - and put up two markets in which the interest is, as you say, zilch. No doubt they will then quote this lack of interest when asked for more politics markets.
Is anybody at Betfair listening?
Not too tough, this question, Mike.
The only people interested in betting on politics are informed. Ergo, no mug punters, so no volume.
A more interesting question is: How have you made yourself such a popular and widely respected guru on such tiny volumes?
The answer might be that the political ‘pundits’ in this country know so little about betting and gambling that they are very easily impressed.
Again, I would be interested in a dep. leader labour market but not really in the two above. If someone was prepared to give me good odds on SNP with most seats, however, then I’d snap it up.
Following on from yesterday’s conversation about the mental breakdown that is the bloggerheads site in recent weeks. I thought I’d just go back to see what was happening. I’m afraid it really is a car-crash site now, though, it’s like reading the ravings of a bloke in the corner of a pub who has evidence that he was abducted by aliens. Does anyone know what happened there, it used to be a site which was politically interesting? I can only imagine a band of conspiracy theorist labourites are following it now but it’s sad all the same.
One of the problems is that Liquidity begats Liquidity (certainly in financial markets), and so there will be a lot of ‘mug punters’ who would enter the market as and when there is sufficient liquidity for them to seek to do so. (And at this point, informed punters such as ourselves take advantage). Normally the arbitragers attempt to create liquidity, but they dont appear to be present here - not really sure why.
WRT the Welsh elections, it looks a foregone conclusion - even the poor run of by-election results for Labour that they’ll still finish first, which makes it unlikely that there’ll be much traded.
It’s a different question about Scotland where it should be a lot closer. All I can think is that as David said at [3], there are few interested punters and little value so far - and in order to create it we’d have to put money on something most people will be only aware of at a distance, it not being well covered (so far), in the English press.
In addition to a deputy Labour leader market, I don’t know why there isn’t one for US president, rather than just the respective parties’ nominees.
O/T French elections update
Last 2 polls :
LH2 (february 3rd)
1st round
Royal 27 Sarkozy 33 Bayrou 13 Le Pen 9
2nd round
Sarkozy 52 Royal 48
Ipsos (febr 3rd)
1st round
Royal 27 Sarkozy 34 Bayrou 13 Le Pen 11
2nd round
Sarkozy 53 Royal 47
Average of the last poll of the 6 pollsters covering the campaign (BVA, IFOP, Ipsos, CSA, LH2, TNS Sofres)
1st round
Royal 26.92 Sarkozy 32.33 Bayrou 12.5 Le Pen 11.92
2nd round
Sarkozy 52.5 Royal 47.5
It might help if there were individual seat markets. The current two markets only really offer one competitive bet - SNP or Labour for most seats in Scotland. The consituencies by contrast offer a wealth of possibilities, and interest for backers of all parties.
Well in short Mike I am not interested in betting on that market because it is too remote from me tohave a feel. I will have to look to my own more local places to take a punt when I have a feel for the ground.
Perhaps not so much for this market, but don’t you think that a lot of liquidity has been drained out of the Betfair markets anyway since the US law on processing payments to gambling websites changed?
11 - No. I am fairly certain Betfair has long had a policy of not being present in the US due to the difficulty of legal interpretation.
5. I looked at the site yesterday and thought it good. Certainly a more adult read than Guido’s site for prepubescents. But to-day it’s taken a nosedive! Part of the problem is the way the site is laid out. It’s very hard to follow and when the word ‘liar’ is repeated continuously over several lines you slowly lose the will to live!
When can we expect markets on individual constituencies for the Welsh Assembly elections to open?
Furthermore, are there any spreads available on the Welsh election, for instance, how many seats labour will win, plaid, tory etc?
I’d be more inclined to bet if there were more interesting options. Most seats is a difficult call - but individual winners in the FPTP seats would be interesting.
And what about council control in May? Argh.
13 - The bigger problem is that nobody is interested in bloggers talking about bloggers, by making it personal and not about the political organisations all credibility is lost.
Anyway, as a liberal I can’t cope with anyone suggesting that blogging should be controlled by legislation and so on. The left have always let me down after claiming to be liberal, subsequently crying about how we need to be controlled for our own good. It’s just one more example in a long line.
I received a phone call from Betfair over the weekend - a ‘how are you settling in affair’ as I’ve only used them over the last couple of months. The caller suggested they were responsive to ideas and so I mentioned more politics markets. Unfortunately due to a desire for brevity as I was watching something I didn’t go into detail. To be honest I got the impression it was just something they said rather than actually listened to, as the conversation clearly indicated to me that the caller hadn’t actually looked at my account/profile.
I don’t see a reason why they don’t respond to more requests as I can’t see the running costs for extra markets being high whatsoever.
9. 14. 15. It seems we all agree.
Because I didnt know they were there!!
Still know even less about Scots and Welsh so will try and leave them alone unless receive obvious tips from someone!!
17 I got one of those calls aftter I’d joined, Adam. I was impressed at the time. I’m less so now.
You’d think the cost of putting up markets was minimal but then they do have a record of cocking up the wording on their political bets (US mid-terms, for example), so maybe they’ve decided these markets are more trouble than they are worth.
A market on indivual seats would be better maybe it will happen soon.
20 - I think your hit a decent point there PtP about wording, etc. I was coming from the angle of traditional bookies - I remember in my betting days [I’m here more for the decent politics discussion and just have the occasional dabble, although I have to admit to following the forecast on your dog!] a friend who was very into US sports and worked for a betting firm said their actual level of information was pretty weak as it wasn’t worth them putting serious funding into a relatively small area - they just ‘bought’ the odds in. I tended to assume that as that wasn’t a problem for Betfair, as they don’t set odds, that any market is an easy one for them. If they feel they are dealing with a bunch of awkward politicos who pick them up on issues of semantics and then only throw a few quid their way, they probably will be less inclined to bother.
22 Yup, you could be right Adam.
Sorry about the dog. He missed the break - otherwise the forecast would have worked. He’s running again Saturday - Race 12. Looks to have a decent chance.
4. “The only people interested in betting on politics are informed”
Then who were all the people backing Oaten this time last year?
23 - No worries, I take full responsibilty for losses on overheard tips. Walthamstow again, is it? A decent dog to have gotten to A2 standard anyway; did you buy him as with such expectancy or has he just turned out well?
On the point of lack of politics markets [feel I best keep on-thread], I wonder if it would be worth someone with influence in politics and betting suggesting to Betfair that they could offer their services on a consultancy basis to moderate their offerings?
5. Again, I would be interested in a dep. leader labour market but not really in the two above. If someone was prepared to give me good odds on SNP with most seats, however, then I’d snap it up.
Ask for it then!!! Better still, offer to lay Labour - casual punters are much more likely to back than to lay.
What these markets really require to kick-start them is for someone to make a full book to 110% or thereabouts; i.e. to offer odds for every eventuality in a competitive manner. Any volunteers?
More bad news for Labour as Blair and Bush tried for war crimes in their absence:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/6336333.stm
25 Yes, Walthamstow again, Adam. I expect we’ll start putting him in Open Races soon but we want him to win an A2 first and get under 29 secs. We paid £1,800 for him expecting him to race at about A5/A4 level but he’s improved since we got him and we think there’s more to come yet; so, yes, we’ve been lucky.
Your suggestion is a good one. I’d offer my own services but doubt I have the cred. Nick Palmer or Mike would be perfect but are probably too busy. How about yourself?
I know a couple of odds compilers who work for well-known betting firms and they both say Political Betting has very low status in their offices. It tends to be given to the junior, which shows sometimes. When you think that Betfair can match £1.5m on a weak event at Southwell on a damp Tuesday, you can kind of sympathise. But only kind of.
The obvious point is that you appeal to a small number of people living inside the M25 who don’t actually realise there is a country west of Gloucester, and North of Humberside…
26 Aaron - “What these markets really require to kick-start them is for someone to make a full book to 110% or thereabouts; i.e. to offer odds for every eventuality in a competitive manner. Any volunteers?”
Easy enough on the bet side, Aaron, but if you offer somebody even so much as £2 at 1000 on the lay side you must have £2,000 available, just on the off chance it gets taken. Not many have those kinds of funds. In fact I sometimes wonder what kind of people go round offering these extreme odds.
26/31 Sorry Aaron, got my backs and lays round the wrong way. (Easily done.)
OK, I’ve done as you suggest. The overrounds now look fairly normal. I shall wait and see if I get any takers. (And by the way, I’m doing this purely on arithmetic; I know nothing about Scottish politics.)
28 - Good luck on Saturday to the dog [forgot his name - only ever remember Mick the Miller and the Droopy’s clan].
I suppose part of the issue with political markets and bookies is that they tend to be long-term bets, therefore less attractive to the mug punter. As you say at 30, laying loses its appeal past a certain odds range anyway - if it is 20-1 and 6 months or more down the line, once inflation is factored in it becomes an unattractive option [I await someone to make the connection and blame NuLab/Bank of England for the paucity of betting action].
I also think some on here forget how immersed in the political world they are compared to the average member of the public - conversation on here certainly surpasses the level of a typical undergraduate seminar. Even most mug punters like to consider themselves as knowledgable in markets. Walk into a bookies and meet a plethora of self professed experts, barring the Templegate’s NAPs brigade. I’d guess most of these would admit to themselves they don’t know too much and shy away from political markets unless they are the type to bet on anything.
Interesting that my “What did Gordon” piece this morning is being taken up by other parts of the media. This is from The First Post
O/T - Can elections be cancelled due to bad weather?
Tomorrow there are 4 or 5 interesting by-elections. The forecast is for a lot of snow in some areas.
I’m sure the elderly will stay at home.
What happens if the election officials can’t get the voting venues open on time?
What if only a dozen people or so vote - is the result still valid?
BB
Can you really blame Betfair for not opening a book this early on the deputy leadership after what happened during the Lib Dem’s leadership campaign?
30 Peter - “Easy enough on the bet side, Aaron, but if you offer somebody even so much as £2 at 1000 on the lay side you must have £2,000 available, just on the off chance it gets taken.”
Still not really clear how betfair works. Would you have to lodge the £2,000 with Betfair? How does the other bettor know they are going to get paid if they win ?
34 - Interesting point. It has oft been argued that poor weather benefits the Tories, although I’m not sure this will be the case with Cameron’s ‘cycle to the polling booth’ approach. As far as official ruling on it I’m stumped. I’d guess in localalised conditions the returning officer [if anyone] may have a say over this.
It’d be pretty unthinkable to cancel a local election because of a bit of snow wouldn’t it?
Apart from the practical fact that at this late stage it’d be almost impossible to inform all of the voters in time (imagine them all turning up at the poling station to be turned away!), alas only the “very determined to vote” brigade turn out for local elections anyhow - so snow won’t put that lot off. It certainly wouldn’t stop me.
37 - this turns up every few months but is a myth. There is no evidence at all that weather benefits either one party or another.
39. kingbongo, I suppose that if the bad weather leads to a lower turnout, the party with a better postal vote performance can have the advantage that those votes have already been casted.
39 - I wasn’t intending to give credence to the arguments, merely relating it to the issue raised.
38 - I remember reading an article sometime about parish officials leading would be voters through fog. I’d guess it was a 1950s pea-souper.
Elderly Tories love voting in the cold / snow / thunder storms. As a so-called “young person” I always had to do the 7am polling station shift. I did the same polling station for 3 elections in a row. The only time there were people waiting to vote in a line was the year is was raining very hard! The first voter who went in said: “It’s just like world war two.”
32 Adam B
Mick the Miller? Just how old are you?! Our dog’s Mighty Fella; not quite as good as MtM, but useful nonetheless.
You’re right about political betting. Like Mike, I got into it when I saw at first hand just how ignorant of politics a lot of punters were.
36 Paul M
Yes, you have to lodge the £2,000 with Betfair so the other punter is sure of being paid. That’s why you often see such large gaps between the back and the lay prices. People are willing to bet £2 at 1000/1, but few will lay at those odds, not because they think they will lose but because they just don’t have £2,000 to deposit until the event is over (which with Political Betting could be a very long time).
Right, let’s get completely off thread.
PARTY TIME!
Mike’s too busy working out how much money his book is going to make him so somebody else is going to have to organise this year’s PB Party. I’m happy to do it if I can have some assistance. Apparently Book Value and Innocent Abroad helped out last year. Any volunteers this year?
I’ll put in £100 from the money I’m going to win on John Cruddas. I think Henry G offered to do likewise. Any other offers will be welcome.
Last year’s bash was at the Star Tavern in Belgravia. Any reason why we can’t go back there? (We didn’t trash the place, did we?) And what day of the week do we want? I reckon it’s got to be a weekend so that Jack W can use his weekend pass but let me know what you think.
In fact, anybody and everybody who has a view can email me at arklebar@talktalk.net
Let’s get to it.
34 etc. I don’t think it would be possible to call off an election in those circumstances when it had been properly notified and many people would have already voted by post.
If there was some organisational difficulty - say with a polling station not opening until 10am - then I would have thought the result could be challenged afterwards as with any other procedural error, but not in anticipation. Besides, there’s really little reason why a bit of snow should shut down the country.
44 Many thanks Peter - I agree it makes it challenging to lay at long odds. If you lay two alternatives in the same market do you have to lodge your exposure to each, or just your max exposure on the market e.g. in your example of the next Labour deputy leader marketif say you offered £2 at 1000 on Clare Short and £2 at 1000 on George Galloway, would you have to lodge £4,000 or only £2,000(since you couldn’t lose both bets simultaneously)?
47 Maximum exposure on the market, Paul.
43 - Alas, Mick the Miller predates me by a few decades. I’ve a softspot for a bygone age.
PB bash sounds a fine idea - is there a qualification threshold on number of posts?!
47 - I found the Betfair rules not so informative over issues like that when I first joined and have thus tended to discover things in running as it were. Not that I’d want to test it with too big an exposure. You might find the answers on the Betfair forums. I’ve mainly tend to lay on shortening prices - if you’ve already backed at bigger odds with Betfair you can lay off when it shortens without tying up your cash reserves. Not much good when the value odds are with a traditional bookie.
49 “Is there a qualification threshold on number of posts?!”
Yes. One.
The Opik/Evans/Pund performance sounds almost scary….BMA sounds quite funny
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/politics/littleandlarge/feb07/stage.htm
Just want to say i am up for a PB party, and I have emailed you Peter.
What do we think the general public feel about House of Lords reform? It seems to create a lot of heat amoungst politicians but I can’t see the public caring.
Needless to say I have a piece on my blog here:
http://aconservatives.blogspot.com/
[45] I’ve sent you an e-mail, PtP. By the sound of it, Jon Cruddas should be the guest of honour. Now all we need is someone to pledge their winnings on whatever for Andrea’s air ticket.
There is a cardiff based bookmaker that will be taking a range of bets on the election in Wales. i will attempt to find details. Betfair is a bit of an unknown quanity for many of us I dont really undertand the system I must admit. Its most likely(virtually inconceivable that Labour will not be the largest party but that could be anythign between 19 and 30 seats!
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/as…fic/6336333.stm
A tribunal to try UK Prime Minister Tony Blair and US President George Bush for war crimes will be convened on Wednesday at a conference in Kuala Lumpur called as part of the former Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad’s campaign to criminalise war.
Dr Mahathir said: “What is Blair if not the co-murderer of 500,000 Iraqi children and the liar who told the British that Saddam had WMD (Weapons of Mass Destruction) which could be launched against Britain within 45 minutes?
“History should remember Blair and Bush as the ‘killers of children’.”
I want to bet on the National Assembly Elections but only by placing £1 on each constituency, but Jack Brown who did such a scheme in 2001, 2003 and 2005 were bought out by Ladbrokes in 2005 and when I phoned them at the start of the year asking if they would continue they said “No!”.
And as I don’t understand how to back / lay and have no desire to open my debit card account to fraudsters (having lost £400 over the space of 4 weeks in December 2006) will not bet on the Assembly Elections (even though I want to!)
Re 54) Well, if you can find one Mark, do let me know! But I don’t it.
34, 46
You can’t call off a poll unless a candidate dies.
The problem with the Welsh offering is that it would require a massive political earthquake for Labour not to be the largest party - even the most pessimistic forecasts has them down to say 22-24 seats and even the most optimistic Plaid forecasts has them at say 18-20 seats. A market on actual seat numbers would be far more interesting - or who would be First Minister……
Rhodri Morgan 4/6
Ieuan Wyn Jones 3/1
Dafydd Ellis Thomas 6/1
Carwyn Jones 10/1
Mike German 15/1
Nick Bourne 20/1
I think the lack of interest is because PR elections are very dull. Perhaps the best argument for FPTP is they generate loads of punting opportunities and excitement.
60 - how wrong can that be?! I find FPTP elections exceedingly dull compared to the STV elections I’m used to in Ireland. In any given UK GE a huge proportion of seats will be foregone conclusions - in a GE in the RoI most, if not all, constituencies have the potential for a change in party composition or at least personnel.
Not that interest factor for election nerds like us should be a criteria in choosing a voting system of course…
61. PR elections held with the STV system as in Ireland are obviously fascinating. The problem in Wales is the top up system of list AMs. Labour for example could lose Llanelli and Prescelli but then gain a seat on the list. Tory gains in Cardiff North and the Vale of Glamorgan could see them lose the list seat and an experienced AM and the Lib Dems possibly gain a list seat. It’s a crazy election system which means that AMs such as Black and Cairns are almost 100% certain of being returned as AMs in May even before one single vote is cast.Plaid will have a new female AM in her twenties who came top of one of their regional lists with only 14 party members voting for her. Her one TV performance was an embarrassment to anyone interested in politics in the principality. Unless book makers open up individual constituency betting it is pretty pointless getting excited.