What do we think of the Boothroyd predictions?
February 8th, 2007
Is this how gains-losses board will look on May 4th?
I’ve already started trying to find betting opportunities for one contest that takes place on May 3rd - the race for the mayor of Bedford where I live. Hopefully local bookies will once again be quoting prices because it looks like an interesting battle of big personalities.
Last time the boss of a local newspaper group won as an independent on a very low turnout in a standalone election. The Lib Dems came in second with Labour, which holds the main parliamentary seat, pushed into 4th place. This time a full slate of local seats will be up, all the party machines will be working full stretch. Will voters stick with their party allegiances in the mayoral vote and will a much bigger turnout have an impact?
David Boothroyd - a psephologist from the Indigo Public Affairs firm lists this as “no change” in his predictions which are summarised above. His firm did the same last year in the London Borough and claimed a 69% success rate.
Is Boothroyd letting his Labour sympathies show through with his predictions - and will May 3rd see many more councils changing hands?
For his predictions he has made a detailed study of every one of the councils where elections will be held and has gone public with his list. He plans to issue revisions in the run up to polling day. Nine years ago Boothroyd started the website, http://www.election.demon.co.uk which has been linked to from PBC since we started. Boothroyd is a Labour councillor on Westminster City Council.
UPDATE: David Boothroyd has asked me to point out that these are not his predictions but those of Indigo Public Affairs
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
Perhaps the biggest factor, at least today, will be the BoE MPC deciding on interest rate rises (or not). The pundits’ consensus appears to be that rates will not go up this time but will probably do so in the near future.
Increased mortgage and credit card bills will not enthuse Labour supporters.
Cons have 25 of 51 seats in Solihull and won 10 of 17 in 2005. Even some Lib Dems grudgingly concede that the Tories should win overall control. An oversight, David?
I’m surprised that Rochdale is not amongst the Lib Dem gains
Some of these look about right to me.
re 1. But increased interest rates are great news for savers
A first for this site, I think - an advertisement (for Tory-TV, as it happens). Fair enough - but Mike may find it in his interest to announce his policy on accepting advertisements, just in case the BNP (for example) knock on the door.
Hi Innocent Abroad,
Message Space is the advertising firm. I hope the banners aren’t too prominent. So far they seem to have just two clients: Doughty Street TV and The Spectator. I don’t think Jag Singh of Message Space isn’t going to be too keen to run BNP ads. But in the event there is anything distateful I will pull the adverts completely.
I hope they’re not too intrusive.
Cheers,
Robert
5 — Savers are, I suspect, less likely to be Labour supporters.
It is interesting that the notion of different personal interest rates (and economic and social conditions generally) is starting to trickle in to mainstream political analysis. I gather from previous threads that French presidential contender and star of the masthead, Sego Royal has been musing on this.
3. noorderling. I think they made the gains/losses basing on the current situation and not the “after the last election” situation (they’ve Crawley as Con gain. Crawley was Tory after 2006 locals, but then there was a defection to LDs making it NOC). In Rochdale, a Labour councillor resigned from the council last month, so the now have 30 councillors out of 59, with 1 vacant seat). Not sure how it’ll be “officially” counted next May.
8. “Savers are, I suspect, less likely to be Labour supporters.”
LOL!
The fact is Mike that under Brown people are hocked up to their eyeballs on owning their houses. Inflation and interest rate rises will finish off Brown forever - if they happen.
Andrea @ 9: I don’t think they did, or at least, not in all cases: they’ve got Shepway down as currently Lib Dem, and a Lib Dem hold - in fact the Lib Dem group split down the middle into Lib Dems and “People First” a couple of years ago, leaving the Tories the biggest party and the council NOC.
It seems that ASLEF (train drivers and operators union) executive committee has endorsed McDonnell as their reccomandation for Labour leadership.
Since it’s OMOV, their voting members (around 15,000) can vote for Brown anyway though.
Regarding councils, I suppose there’s the chance that Sheffield can go NOC if Labour perform worse than in 2006 locals. Lab currently have 44 councillors out of 84. So it can go NOC with just 2 losses.
Last year they held all their seats, but there’re some marginals where they can be vulnerable if they’re down a bit.
For ex Gleadless Valley …2006: Lab 1701, LD 1652
Hillsborough….2006: Lab 1882, LD 1667
Walkley…2006: LD 1863, Lab 1783 (in 2004 it was a split ward, a LD councillor was up last year, this year a Labourite is up for election)
8/10. I think Mike is more or less correct there. Aren’t older people both more likely to be savers and more likely to be Tories than an ‘average’ person; and adults in the 25-40 age bracket more likely to be borrowers and more likely to be Labour supporters?
Of course, if there’s a house price crash, negative equity and the rest, that may damage Labour’s support among those who have mortgages. That’s still not too likely at the moment, though if inflation proves more stubborn than expected, the possibility of house price falls rises substantially.
On topic, I can’t comment too much on the list as virtually none are in Yorkshire, which I know best - but those absences are fair enough because I’d be surprised if there’s any change in control in most Yorks councils with so many locked in NOC.
Bath & NE Somerset could be a surprise LibDem gain, which given the troubles over the Spa would be a bit of a coup.
11. Antony. Interesting. In Crawley they must have considered the current situation and not the one after elections since the tories won overall control last year and then lost it after the defection.
Interest rates betting on Betfair
No Change: 1.29
+0.25: 4.3
+0.50: 70.0
Th policy of the bank of England is to have interest rates as high as possible - High interest rates help their friends in the city. This month is when they publish their quarterly inflation report - which is usually the time that rates change - I have bet on +0.25 with a saver on +0.5.
Barnsley to NOC??? Last year Labour gained a seat here.
13. Andrea - you’re right about the possibilities for the Lib Dems in Sheffield. I just wonder whether having taken the council once since 1997, whether they’ll find it much harder to do it again. I’d also be looking for a bit of a Conservative recovery in Hallam, Nick Clegg not withstanding.
David - Sheffield is in The North. Conservatives don’t recover in The North.
18. David. They currently have 2 councillors: both in Dore & Totley ward (Sheffield Hallam constituency). It was a split ward in 2004 (2 tories and 1 LD). The LD was up last year and he held very easily (a 1,000+ majority).
[7] Thanks, Robert. I’m all in favour of anything that keeps this place going.
Re house prices and local election results; I dont know who runs my local council and if there was an election tomorrow I probably wouldn’t vote. I’m reasonably content with local services and I have no intention of sending a message to Tony ‘Keep up the good work’! Suspecting that many government supporters feel as I do is the reason I don’t use local results as a pointer to a General Election.
Slight volatility in interet rates I suspect is good for the government. With total stability people take the ecconomy for granted. Slight worries from both savers and borrowers is likely to remind both what a bonus Brown’s stability has brought.
When it comes to an election this is likely to be more salient than the inadvertent release of foreign prisoners and other bits of trivia that affect no-one other than Daily Mail headline writers.
16 Like you, Icarus, I’ve had a small punt on +0.25 - but a saver on +0.50?! There will be real trouble if that happens.
I’ve no insight into nearly all of these so can’t sensibly comment. The only bit of gossip that I’ve picked up is that the Independent surge in North Notts is subsidising (two of their councillors recently switched back to Labour), which maybe fits with the Mansfield mayor prediction. I’m sure Broxtowe will remain NOC, though there are several close battles (Labour vs BNP in Brinsley, Labour vs LDs in Kimberley and Stapleford SW (both currently split), Labour vs Tories in Chilwell West (also split), Tories vs Independents in Nuthall East, and an all-party scrum in Beeston West). Everyone has long-shot hopes in other wards but those are the most likely battlegrounds, probably producing fairly small net movements.
On interest rates, I think in general that rises are moderately bad for the party in power and falls are just slightly good, because people budget on the status quo, and are more disturbed by adverse changes than they are thrilled by positive ones. Ideally governing parties want gentle movements throughout the cycle but rates in decline in the year approaching an election. That’s not necessarily inconsistent with another 0.25 rise in the next month or two (more likely than today, I’d think - the BoE did their macho bit last month and won’t feel they need to repeat it) - it is much more important politically that the economy is (as is seen to be) under steady control.
23. A 50bp rise is extremely unlikely indeed. But with Halifax house prices this morning showing another 1.3% mom rise and the stock market up 200 points since the last hike, there isn’t much sign that the BoE delivered a significant shock to expectations with its last move. So I reckon 50-50 still for 25bp today…and even that might not be the end of the matter.
2 Yes the Conservatives should gain control of Solihull in May . They should gain Kingshurst from Labour and possibly Blythe from LibDems both in Meriden const . In Solihull const. they should gain Elmdon from LibDems but lose Shirley South to LibDEms . Labour will be trying to prevent a repeat of the BNP gain in Chelmsley Wood last year .
There are some glaring omissions in the predicted councils changing hands . Hull is odds on to go to LibDem control for example as is Rochdale . Brighton/Hove is most unlikely to go to outright Conservative control , they should become the largest party easily but 6 gains looks their maximum whilst they need 8 for outright control .
Clearly I’m biased; but Conservatives will win control of Torbay.
We won the directly elected mayoral election in 2005 but the council has a Lib Dem majority at the moment.
The announcement today by British Gas of a reduction in Gas/Electricity prices will probably mean that inflation will start to ease back by the early summer. No sensible person can expect low interest rates, low inflation, high house prices to go on for ever, economies are cyclical, you’ll get the good times, you’ll get the bad. Governments get the blame when they lose control, Labour the winter of discontent, Tories the ERM disaster. As for high personal debt etc, no one forces you to take out that loan, or bump up your credit card debt, try doing without occasionally.
[28] Coldstone wrote no one forces you to take out that loan, or bump up your credit card debt - true, so far as it goes. But I left university (a very long time ago) debt-free, & by the mid-70s I had a rent-controlled flat in a reasonable part of London - I might, if I had so chosen, stayed debt-free all my life. My daughter has a totally different attitude to it, not from her parents or her peer-group, but from the student loan system, which, it could be argued (and surely this was in the minds of the Scots who scrapped it), makes debt “normal” and “proper” - and Coldstone’s advice seem pie-in-the-sky.
[25] You could even go further, Fred, and argue that the higher interest rates go in the first half of a Parliament (which we are still in, although you’d scarcely credit it on here sometimes), the bigger the pre-election feel-good factor that can be brought to bear.
There is debt, we have to accept, there is plenty of debt that is vanity based. I have to have that because I want it, I don’t need it, but I want it. Self restraint can work wonders.
Bury not even mentioned Pah/
29. The days when a government could tighten policy just after an election and loosen it just before are pretty much at an end with the advent of BoE independence, though. It could work out that way, but it would be fortuitous if it did.
The next twelve months is going to be very interesting - can the BoE engineer a soft landing, in which case your scenario could come to pass…or will they have to engineer a relatively steep slowdown to get inflation back into its box? The latter outcome could be quite politically damaging and hard to repair in time for the GE. Too early to say.
30 True with credit cards, not really true with mortgages.
30. …and tomorrow on ‘thought for the day’, another simple homily from the Rev. Coldstone…
I have seen the predictions, but found some of them hard to believe based on local information. That said I am looking forward to a fun fight with the Lib Dems in my area in May. I have already started blogging about their local policies.
As for thsi mayoral election, I have no idea.
22 - Roger claims not to know who runs his local council. Strange, in earlier posts he is fully aware of this, with his pubescant jibes in place of political comment.
Re 11, Anthony, I am not sure what methodoligy they used to work out each council to be honest. We will have to see how acurate the predictions are come May.
Pleased to see South Gloucestershire as a possible Lib Dem gain. Sadly, someone must be unaware of the local situation. If you wanted an interesting flutter I’d place a bet on a Conservative win - it will be close.They could win six plus seats easily unless the LibDems get their vote out.
34
Here I go being a smug b*****d. When I took early retirement, both my children were going through higher education, used my lump sum to sort them out. My wife and I moved to the country, I have a good pension, she works. We have a resonable income, but not an excessive one. I have an allotment, I grow most of the vegetables we need, we manage with one car, which she needs for work. I walk, for instance yesterday I walked 8 miles, to spice it up, I put a 10k bag of gravel in my rucsack, it slows u down, but when you take if off, you feel really light. If I don’t need anything I don’t buy it. Much of what we think we need, we can do without, I did. Our only real luxury, we do like to travel, mainly to Italy. Compared to many people in the village in which I live, (we are hoping to move to a place with own veg plot shortly) we live a good life, for in this area there is genuine rural poverty, which quite shocked me, I consider myself lucky.
23, Peter - I cannot resist long odds!! Just taken another £5 at 137-1!!!
Roger is not alone - we have 3 councils.
1) A “town” council that talks a lot spends most of the money on overpaid staff and does not much (it has no money left).
2) A district now happily lead by the Lib Dems but the council is based in a town (Market Harborough) which might as well be Birmingham - no-one from Lutterworth has any links with it - it is twice as far away as Rugby or Leicester and the road is slow and plagued by cameras!
3) A County Council - I think Tory.
But my point is that no-one knows what any of them do. Who controls the roads? The schools, police and fire look after themselves. I do know the rubbish is collected by Harborough but thats about it.
Coldstone @ 39 — many older people have good pensions but this will not be so in the future now that final salary schemes are largely a thing of the past. Future pensioners will be on far lower incomes.
MPs have selflessly agreed to continue using old-fashioned final-salary schemes. Their sacrifice is an inspiration to us all.
The question on debt and interest rates, though, is not whether debt is morally or economically a good thing but what is the likely effect on voting intentions.
If you have a mortgage its worth a few quid on a rise today - prob 70/30 against but you can get 4.7 on betfair now. If you win you are still better off than a rise, lose and you can pay a bit of next months increased bill - almost an arb
14, There is no chance of the Lib Dems gaining Bath and North East Somerset. I predict the Tories will be the largest party after May 3rd, a handful of seats off taking control.
One of the nine men arrested under the anti-terror laws has described Britain as ” a Police state for muslims”
Pretty heavy stuff alongside the Archbishop of York comparing Britain with Amin`s regime from the seventies in Uganda.
Think both comments are a bit over the top.
Nevertheless if this is the perception could help the Lib Dems this May in certain areas.
43. sorry if you LOSE the bet..
I’m still predicting a tory gain in Bury, maybe i’m biased but just can’t see Labour holding on there fighting on too many fronts.
Re 39, Coldstone, there is genuine rurla poverty which is why us Conservatives get really really angry when our shire councils get the lowest possible grant. It means we can do s*d all about it.
Mark Senior, what do you think of the prediction of Mid Sussex being a lib Dem gain whilst Horsham to remain Conservative?
41 - Roger lives in Westminster, a Unitary London Borough. He has frequently posted on the subject.
Surprised not to see one or more of the following North West Councils (Bury, Crewe and Nantwich, Chester or Vale Royal) in the Conservative gain column. All would take only a small number of gains for the Conservatives to take overall control and all showed swings to the Conservatives in the most recent elections.
Bury: NOC (C need to gain 4) Conservatives gained 3 seats in May 2005 and have now selected their PPC’s for both Bury North and South so they can help lead the campaign.
Crewe and Nantwich: NOC (C need to gain 4) Con minority administration, gained four seats in May 2005 and have made year on year progress.
Chester: NOC (C need to gain 4) Lib/Lab Administration, Conservatives gained 5 seats in May 2005 and have won a by-election from the Lib Dems since. Still possible for the Tories to snatch this one despite the trouble caused by the previous PPC.
Vale Royal: NOC (C need to gain 4), currently Con/Lib administration, all out elections this May and there is scope for gains in the parts which fall in the safe Conservative seats of Tatton and Eddisbury.
It is unlikely the Conservatives will win all four, however they must be hoping for at least a couple.
43. Jamie - CantorSpreadfair has a market too, where you can ‘buy basis points’ for MPC meetings out to November 2007. Currently you can buy today at 530.6 i.e. potential upside c 24 bp, and March at 541.5. So I have put a bit on both, on the basis that even if it is no change today there remains a strong chance of a move in March instead.
42
On the final slalary for pensions, totally agree, I was a beneficary of such a scheme, I’m sorry they are not continuing.
My point on debt, is that much of the debt we accrue, we do it ourselves, governments should not be blamed for it, the individual has to accept some blame. For those of us who were paying mortgages in the 1980’s the situation today, don’t seem that bad, I remember G,Howe’s first budget (?) when interest rates were put up 2% in one go, sitting down and working out, whether starving to death was preferable, to losing the roof over our heads.
dez @ 45 — before betting next month’s mortgage money on muslim voters turning out en masse for the Lib Dems, you need to assess whether the damage done by the leadership election has subsided. The Oaten revelations were shocking and, in that context, Hughes and Kennedy did not help. Maybe things have blown over now.
51. agree whole heartedly
52. Ta - with the Brandindex market thing I may have to consider opening other accounts - I’m betfair only at the moment.
re 16. I don’t care (well I do becuase i have a mortgage) what happens to interest rates becuase I’ll make a profit on Betfair whatever happens
57. Do you mean you have an all green book on today’s MPC meeting?
49 Hi Benedict , I think on balance Conservatives should take outright control in Mid Sussex but it will be very tight with some seats changing hands both ways much will depend on whether the local Conservatives follow the Cameron lead and fight the election on the basis that having no policies upsets no voters but the trouble is that having been in minority control they already have upset quite a few people . I hardly think that a trivial flowers not shrubs policy is an issue which will make voters rush to vote Conservative .
Horsham also will be tight but again on balance it should just remain Conservative .
58. Very possible - was 3.1 a week ago - now nearly 5…
After looking at the table of predictions, it seems a little to good for Labour. I note that Boothroyd has an inclination to support Labour. The 31% anomaly that was at a variant to the result last year can therefore be factored into the predictions.
I think that there are several factors that may damage Labour:
1. Firstly Cash for Honours.
Given the previous protestations by Labour about bringing a new standard in British politics, they may well be punished for bringing about a change to a lower level of integrity to the highest offices of state.
Labour has done too little - too late in trying to ameliorate the consequential damage that results from an allegedly duplicitous organised funding operation.
2. The Government divisions over the succession and the vacuum precipitated by Tony Blair in pre-announcing his resignation.
The weak leadership and absence from the public domain of one Gordon Brown, the heir presumptive, reinforce the lack of accountability at the heart of Government.
The strategic plan of Gordon Brown to gift bad election results to the Prime Minister is a demonstration of his “psychologically flawed” plans for leading the United Kingdom.
3. The mess in Iraq, this is the last time anti – Labour voters will be able to punish Blair. When Brown enters Number 10, Labour will be punished for their incompetent management of the public services.
4. Health service under funding and inappropriate expenditure on PFI projects that will cost the Tax payer many times the level of the equivalent Government borrowing.
Governments have the ability to borrow through Gilts and other financial devices that are lower interest bearing than PFI schemes. Current NHS amalgamations of SHA’s, budgetary shortfalls and job losses are a consequence of the Labour Governments failure to address the appropriate management of change within our heath service.
5. Falling disposable income, through cost push inflation on the household budget. This has been caused by illegal wars and inappropriate energy and foreign policy decisions. The official inflation rate has succumbed to as many changes as Imelda Marcos’s shoes in recent years. It is changed for convenience and could be described in John Reid’s as “not fit for purpose”.
The Government have failed to provide energy leadership throughout their 10 wasted years by appointing a cabinet minister with sufficient authority to strategically plan our Nations future.
6. The list could be exhaustively extended but the punters at PB, have better things to as I have.
Conclusion
Labour will get absolutely annihilated and it may only be the postal voting that prevents Labour from getting a complete wipe-out. What ever happened to British fair play, it seems to have evaporated like the good will we once enjoyed in international relations.
[59] Mark Senior suggests that having no policies upsets no voters - by and large, yes, tho’ I still bear the scars inflicted by the gay constituent (also a demographer, the rotter) who asked me, as a candidate, why the Council was spending so much money on education when most of the voters were childless
It’s an interesting document. But there are quite a few predictions in there that expose a lack of knowledge of the local situation. Perhaps not that surprising, as Boothroyd has a vastly overinflated opinion of himself (e.g. from the document “He has an outstanding reputation in this field”…which he doesnt at all). His postings on uk.politics.misc have to be seen to be believed!
Really, what he has done isn’t a great deal more accurate than the analysis that Mark Senior did on the Vote-2007 website.
61. Great post.
What I don’t understand is why Brown doesn’t push Blair now - he can’t do any worse in May and can still blame the bad results on Tone - he can say “imagine how bad it would have been if we hadn’t lanced the boil”. He then gets back some reputation for being up for a fight (on 2 counts - leadership and May polls). I can’t see a lot of downside for Gordo.
Re 59, Mark, Mid Sussex only became NOC and a minority because of the resination of the Conservative whip by two councilors, who are in safe seats. (Due to an pottential SBE investigation).
The flowers thing is at the Haywards Heath town level, also up for election.
On the unpopular decisions front, the most unpopular thing is the wheely bin collection oncea fortnight, and we got everyone to sign up to that so that they can’t campaign against us on it.
I agree they will be hard fights in many ways. We want to get our comfortable majority back.
I really hate slow news days. I wish we had a poll, or an arrest, or some policy heavyweights knocking it out.
When’s YouGov?
Ben Dalton @ 61 — while there are a good many issues on which Labour is extremely vulnerable, most of them will only matter directly if and when the opposition campaigns on those issues.
Take PFI for instance, though voters may punish Labour for closing their hospitals (”a sign of success” — P Hewitt in today’s Mirror) it is unlikely they will blame Labour for PFI even though the latter causes the former.
And so far, Cameron’s strategy has been to avoid campaigning on anything at all. This may well change as the election nears or when Blair goes but until then, a lot of issues that can hurt Labour will not actually do so.
As things stand, the big issue for most voters will be their own personal social and economic circumstances: can they afford to go out and will they be mugged on the way back home? If people feel uncomfortable then — whether or not they blame the government (or council) — they will be less inclined to vote for it.
66. Well lets discuss northwest councils then. Noboby ever wants to discuss us its like we are a forgone conclusion.
Re 68, Go on then, what do you think will happen in the North West?
65 You will be blamed for the fortnightly wheely bin collection whether the other parties campaign against you or not . A global warming enhanced early May heatwave causing stench from rubbish not due for collection for another 7 days would kill off any chances of a majority .
You want to get back your comfortable majority ? Why ? What hidden policies or cuts in services will you introduce with a comfortable majority which you could not persuade others to support them now when in minority control ?
68 Admiral Penketh. The north west will see the white cockade run the table in a repeat of the 1745 gains.
So that takes in Carlisle, Kendal, Lancaster, Preston, Wigan, Bury, Manchester, Macclesfield, Leek, Ashbourne and Derby.
Betfair MPC +0.25 in from 5.3 to 4.1 within last 30 mins…
Good day to bury bad news under a snowdrift ?
… Nick Palmer predicts “an all party scrum in Beeston West” - my home ward, and I agree. It’s the sort of ward the Tories really should be winning - possibly the Camerooniest in Broxtowe - but I’m not sure I can see it. Tories in Beeston West still seem shy - flags were very thin on the ground at the last election - on the other hand, we had our first communication from local Tories since I’ve lived in the area yesterday (even if it was scrunched up and wedged into a non-opening letterbox). But I still predict two Lib Dem gains for the ward.
I’d be slightly surprised to see Labour gain Derby (though Derby changes hands every few months anyway).
RE 70, Mark, nteresting point on teh wheely bins, by=ut the fact is that no council has much of a choice, it is the andfil tax doing it.
Why do we want a comfortable majority? Because it is more comfortable than an uncomfortable one?
Well Benedict. I’m predicting a tory gain in Bury and Vale Royal and just maybe a slight chance in Crewe and nantwich. There is a possibility the Tories in Tameside could go up from 8 to 10 slight possibilty of 11 and hopefully Salford should have 10/111 tories on May the 4th
When does the MPC announce?
sprry 11 not 111
75 Admiral. “111 tories….” in Salford !!!!!!!!!!!!
76 PeterP. Noon.
Dear Jack W and well be waving when they march through. not sure what the locals will do when they leave though.
76. Midday usually..
79 Admiral. “Leave” ?????????
Not this time …… the “Big Project” almost in place.
Boothroyd’s assessment is likely to prove absurdly inaccurate given the huge amount of councils holding elections and the the fact that in most cases it was four years since they last faced a test at the ballot box.
As the Conservative position has undoubtably improved and Labour’s worsened since 2003, is it really likely that the Tories will only perform slightly better than they did under IDS? Such a result would be considerably worse than last year’s and would be little short of disastrous for Cameron and his party’s aspirations for the next general election. Not very likely to happen I’d say….
Re 75, S Penkeith, 11 seats in one council? Impressive!
Oh, I see you are sprry!
Don’t you just hate those typo’s?
I shall watch with interest. How are the local associations getting on? I would hope membership is up.
“Roger lives in Westminster, a Unitary London Borough. He has frequently posted on the subject” (Pot and Kettle @50) - so doesn’t Mayor Ken look after Westminster then?
74 Not sure what landfill tax has to do with fortnightly collections as opposed to weekly collections . Obviously there is a financial saving but in other councils which have gone down this route there is usually a clamour to get back to weekly collections when the weather gets hot .
Yes but what cuts in services have you got planned to introduce if you get a comfortable majority which you dare not mention now ?
membership is up. Surprising area where it is coming from. Besses, due to local issues a surprise may be on the cards.
66,
Not an arrest if it was one of for your party I guess.
Think you should have defined what you mean.
Having said that think we know who you want arresting quickly lol.
Conservatives could well lose Walsall MBC too
Colin
Wolverhampton
http://www.colin-ross.org.uk
Re 85, Point taken about the whether. The reasoning behind fornightly collectios is to force people to recycle and compost more resulting in less waste to collect. As popular as a bucket of cold sick, but all parties agreed to it.
We have no plans for cuts in services if we get a comfortable majority.
That said obviously there is a bit of trouble at county level with the budget as we keep getting very low awards.
Re 86, S. Penketh, good news. More members hopefully means more foot soldiers.
58, yes I do there were some big price changes a few weeks ago and I guessed right
BOE leaves rates unchanges ..
Interest rates unchanged at 5.25%
INTEREST RATES UNCHANGED
Is there an echo in here?
good news. Except for punters. Like I always say, wealth warning, don’t bet.
As regards Bedford you say “all the party machines will be working full stretch”. This certainly appears to be true in the case of the Liberals, the Conservatives and the independant candidate. The Labour candidate doesn’t even have an agent yet, let alone a campaign. Where can I place my bet, please?
Sorry guys!
As a Lib Dem Councillor for Canterbury (one of the few suggested Tory gains on the list) with a majority of 1 vote over my Conservative opponent I actually feel rather safe holding my seat. The worry is Labour. 4 years back we had 18 councillors, Labour 6 and the Tories 24. After by-elections, defections and resignations the current standing is Lib Dems 17, Labour 5, Tories 24, vacancies 2. All of Labour’s seats are vulnerable (majority of less than 100). If the Tories do not end up in control in Canterbury then it will say a hell of a lot about how far they still need to come.
Conservatives may take Elmbridge BC (Surrey) from NOC.
They have formed a minority administration since gaining 5 seats from Residents Associations in 2006 and currently hold 27 of 60 seats following a defection in January.
There’s a winnable by-election in a Lib Dem seat in Claygate on March 22, where the Tories have a well-known parish councillor in place as candidate.
Here’s how they are gearing up for May:
http://www.esherwalton.com/page.php?pid=13
The Bensham Manor by-election in Croydon will tell us a lot about what to expect in the council elections I think. Don’t be too surprised if you see the mighty Colonel Cocoa-Bean (aka John Cartwright) take a massive majority for the Official Monster Raving Loony Party - the smart money is surely on him…
Re 99, Interesting situation in Canterbery there Chris.
Funny how i once thought how trivial local politics is compared to Westminster action(excitedly talking about rubbish collections as though it were the latest swedish porn). Now who does our esteemed Prime Minister have taxpayer funded meetings with –errr some indian ‘celebrity’ so that he can fawn and say sorry for some chav programme. Dumb Britain!!
102. It is knife edge stuff. One of the Tory councillors has just defected to our side whilst 2 years ago we lost control after one of our side went to the Tory benches (council switched on the Lord Mayor’s casting vote).
May will be very interesting.
Re 104, Chris with all that crossing the floor, is the carpet going to get worn out?
[104] Goodness me, Canterbury, not content with the top archbishopric, has to have a Lord Mayor as well. The OMRLP is clearly more needed there than in Croydon, where its vote was cut in half between ‘01 and ‘05 in any case …
See we have 7 candidates in the by election at Nuneaton, Bede, the 3 plus UKIP, BNP, Englsh democracy and Save our Hospital.
On paper should be a Conservative gain, only Labour and Cons last year, but could be a test of this high “Other” figure, some polls are showing.
107. Certainly plenty of options for the protest-minded voter.
My view is that David Boothroyd is too optimistic for Labour, and too pessimistic for the Conservatives.
I don’t expect the Conservatives to take outright control of Brighton & Hove. But I would expect them to gain (inter alia) Chester, Vale Royal, Shepway, Torbay, Plymouth, Bournemouth, Waverley, Uttlesford, Solihull, in addition to those mentioned (although I think Canterbury is a hold rather than a gain).
I can see no reason why the three mentioned should be Conservative losses, although there will doubtless be Conservative losses against the tide.
I think the Lib Dems will lose St. Alban’s to NOC, but should pick up Hull, Rochdale, Bristol, Harborough, and perhaps Oldham. I am advised that they have a good chance of winning North Somerset too, but boundary changes favour the Conservatives in South Gloucestershire.
I would hesitate to predict any Labour council gains in the current climate, despite their good by-elections in Hyndburn. I think Sheffield will go to NOC also, and Labour will go to under 50% in Stoke.
106 Even grander is Lichfield City Council (which is in fact a parish council).
I am surprised to see the Conservatives down to lose West Dorset. I suppose it depends on how many other candidates stand, but I doubt if the Lib Dems or Labour will put up full slates.
107 Agreed Nuneaton Bede is on paper an obvious Conservative gain but LibDems are fighting a very strong campaign with optimistic forecasts of at least 2nd place - we shall see tonight .
111. I don’t have any info from the ground (rather out of the loop these days), but I was a bit surprised by West Dorset’s inclusion there as well. The Tory majority is only a couple, but there are only a handful of obviously vulnerable Tory seats.
There is also a good chance the Tories may pick off a couple more of the independents this time - they were very close in Puddletown and Maiden Newton last time. Not much chance of the Lib Dems ’squeezing’ Labour either as Labour only put up a few candidates last time - their organisation has ceased to exist in this part of the world.
RE 111, and 113, I think the predictions are not that accurate on a council by council basis.
so let me get this straight , Teh Prime Minister who led us to war in iraq cannot find the time to come to the last debate about the worsening situation in Iraq but can find time to meet ’shilpa from Celebrity Big Brother’??
What a joke of a man. who elected this guy?
85 & 89 - The Landfill Tax is a big factor in the move towards alternate weekly collections. If councils fail to increase recycling rates and keep burying their rubbish they will have to pay massive fines. Alternate weekly collections tend to produce a large increase in recycling rates.
In addition to the councils gained and lost in England I would expect every council in Scotland to go to NOC with the exceptions of Glasgow, North Lanarkshire and South Lanarkshire. Previously Labour could have hoped to hold on to East Ayrshire and maybe North Ayrshire but that now seems unlikely.
117 That sounds like a bit of a sweeping generalisation, Max. Are you sure? I know the new voting system will demolish a lot of “rotten borough wards” for Labour, but won’t it do the same (to a lesser extent) to the other parties as well? Won’t Labour pick up some seats where the old system worked against them in the past?
Back from lunch! In Canterbury over 4 years we’ve had 7 by-elections, two crossings of the floor, two resignations before full term (but close enough to May so no election), one change of power and one floor crosser who has gone Lab-Con-Ind-Lib, (in 6 years overall rather than 4).
Amazingly, with such a volatile situation, we have no 4th party threat at all (UKIP, BNP, Residents, Ind, Greens etc) and rarely see any of them stand in elections.
118 - Pretty sure. Labour may pick up a handfull of seats in places Aberdeenshire and the Borders (where they currently have none) but not anything like enough to take control of them.
This site shows what might have happened in 2003 had STV been in place.
http://uk.geocities.com/scottishelections/stv2003.htm
Re 119, So Chris, how often do they have to replace the carpet? BTW I am now off to get some lunch!
116 In theory fortnightly collections are supposed to increase recycling rates but there is not much evidence that they in fact do . Hence some councils threatening fines on people who are not recycling as much as the council deems they should do .
120 Of course, Max, sorry. I forgot that we were looking at the change of control of councils.
121. I think the carpet fitters are hoping for some stability over the next 4 years!
but has ‘Shilpa from Celebrity Big Brother’ come to see you chris Took?
125. Sadly we have not been blessed with her presence.
124 Chris. It’s an absolute disgrace that councils have the money to spend on carpets !!
well i suggest you need to get ‘with it’ Chris as its ‘Dumb Britain’ now you know. Sod going to the Iraq debate for our Prime Minister ,just smile and say how sorry we all are for Jo Goody (or whatever her name is) picking on you in some chavfest
127. It’s because of all the money we have saved by having alternate weekly collections!!
128. The clsoest celebrity we have in Canterbury is Barry from Eastenders (and he’s not even in Eastenders anymore)
129 Chris. Efficiency savings should not be used to feather nest Councillors !! ….. carpets indeed !! …. you’ll be telling me next you pick up more than 10 guineas per annum in allowances !!
It’s obvious. They have to have carpets in order to have something to chew on.
Re 122, Mark, we will have to see how that pans out, however the councils themselves are between a rock and a hard place.
Re 124, Chris
133 Is that not what I have been saying for many months that overall control of a council these days is a poisoned chalice ?
130 - Ah, but you at least one some stellar LibDem pb-er from Cantuar. I can imagine the doorstep scene:
VOTER: “Hmmm…yes, I’ll probably voting for that nice Chris Took”
CANVASSER (ColinW, for it is he): Cretin. Moron.
RE 135, Mark especialy on our patch Mark where the grant seems to be going in the wrong direction.
Where are the Labour wards in Canterbury? Presumably they are in the city itself, largely bombed to pieces in WW2, and rebuilt full of council estates. Contrary to the popular image, Canterbury is a small rather nasty little town (a shade over 30,000 people - a quarter of the largely rural local government area).
I predict Labour will loose Hartlepool to no overall control. The local paper ran a banner headline recently “BETRAYED” refering to assurances given by Labour during the 2004 by-election (to replace Mandelson) that the local hospital would NOT close. Without these assurances the seat was definitely vunerable to the Lib-Dems. Guess what was announced last week……Hartlepool Hospital to CLOSE. The people are VERY angry