Labour’s moves to within 5% with YouGov
February 11th, 2007
Is now the time to bet on a hung parliament?
A new YouGov poll for today’s Sunday Times shows a small movement from the Tories to Labour and that the “others” total remains constant. These are today’s shares with comparisons on the last YouGov poll at the end of January: CON 37% (-1): LAB 32% (+1): LD 18% (nc): OTH 13% (nc).
Putting these numbers into the seat calculators produces a CON 277: LAB 294: LD 47: OTH 32 seat distribution with the Wells calculator and CON 297: LAB 290: LD 30: OTH 33 seat with Martin Baxter
The poll is very much in line with all the recent polls and really we are waiting for Labour’s succession before proper judgements can be made about the likely outcome of the General Election.
The only slight worry for Labour and Gordon Brown is that YouGov have the Tories leading by 2% on the question of economic competence.
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The mood of the country is that there is a desire for change but voters are yet to be convinced that it should be to the Tories.
A result that deprives Labour of power but does not put the Tories back in with a majority looks increasingly likely. The big question might be as to which party has most seats in a hung parliament situation.
In the betting a the “hung parliament” price of 1.34/1 is starting to look like a good bet.
Mike Smithson
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If the Tories got around 290-300, I wonder if they’d do a deal with the DUP- go back to their Unionist roots etc.?
This is a disappointing poll, a tiny 1 point movement to Labour, but I want that to go the other way! Not panicking though. We saw a shift after the kicking Lab got last May and I think the effect will be repeated this May.
In shirt I expect polls to improve for us very soon. Mike’s theory that anything that gets DC publicity helps the Tories is about to be tested! i don’t think the public will give a stuff about drugs, it’s not like he ever denied it and there is no hypocrisy there.
In short even. Need English Breakfast.
I thought English Breakfast was out in today’s new inclusive progressive Tory party
?
Any publicity might help with the public but not sure that the LOL (Little old Ladies) will work quite so hard for this spoilt Etonian (”rules are for the lower classes not for me”) Cameron fellow.
But seriously Hung Parliament does look a good bet here - Ive done a decent amount over the last few months around these levels. Odds should grind lower over time as what you are selling is volatility of outcome. If there were a General Election tomorrow it would almost certainly result in a hung parliament so something has to change for that not to happen - and the more time there is the more likely that becomes.
5. Well it didn’t take long for the Lib Dems to adopt a typically hypocritical mud slinging line on this, did it? Surprised to see the normally sensible Icarus lining up with the likes of ColinW though.
As this is in line with other polls (and within the 3% error), it is hardly a news story - hence probably why the Sunday Times did not give it front page headlines.
What is true is that Labour support has been rising for the last few months and I suspect this has more to do with the fact that Tony Blair is going, plus all new Party Leaders get a honeymoon and this may well be a pre-honeymoon rise for whosoever is elected to replace him.
The By elections this week agreed with this trend. In both Nuneaton and Croydon, Labour’s support increased, while the Conservative vote dropped.
What is interesting, is that this was the opposite in Barnet. Barnet lies in the heart of north London, the epicentre of the massive swings to Labour in 1997 (e g 18% in Brent North. Here there was a swing to the conservatives of 3% from Labour compared to only May last year.
If Labour are to win an overall majority, they must retain seats in North London they won in 1997.
I don’t know the rules now but it used to be an offense to allow your premises to be used for the taking of drugs. All sorts of unfortunate landlords used to end up with criminal records every time a bunch of students were busted.
So I’d be curious to know the position of Eton in this? State schools would certainly have had to report that a criminal offense had taken place on their premises. Mr Cameron Senior must be very grateful to the High Master of Eton his discretion saved young David from the criminal record that would certainly have applied to his state school counterpart.
8. Labour’s vote in Nuneaton & Bedworth didn’t rise, it fell quite sharply. The Tory vote fell more.
8 Labour support fell in Nuneaton Bede but not by as much as the Conservative vote .
10 11 Accepted.
A few years ago a string of Tory shadow cabinet members admitted to dope smoking in their youth, much to the embarrassment of Ann Widdecombe and her tough anti-drugs policy at the time.
If Cameron just admitted it as a youthful indiscretion, it wouldn’t be a problem, contrast Barck Obama. As it is, the constant reminder the story creates that he went to Eton is probably something he would rather not have.
Richard Church
Meanwhile, a slightly more important story, in which the government admits it put relations with the EU ahead of public health…
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/health/article1364673.ece
13: good point about a non-story. If a politician is entitled to a past private life, cannabis or no cannabis, he must be disappointed that news of his going to Eton has leaked out!
On a more serious note, Cameron promised ‘true grit’ in 2007. Anyone seen any yet?
I dont think a hung Parliament is any more likely than it ever is. When the election comes the voters will choose between the three options; Labour Tory or hung parliament. I have seen no evidence that the public are any more interested in a hung parliament now than they have been in the past and people are sophisticated enough now to know what’s going on in their own constituency to tactically avoid it.
There hasn’t been a mid term that I can remember when a hung parliament hasn’t seemed likely. During the Thatcher years when the Tories were unpopular and Labour weren’t trusted it even seemed like this might be popular but it just never happened
9 - And what do you know about State Schools?
5 - Icarus, I very much doubt tht David Cameron and the pupils of Eton are the only people to have smoked cannabis when they were young and got away with it.
I went to state school and plenty people you refer to as coming from the lower classes didn’t seem to mind flouting this particular law.
Iain Dale defending his blog on Marr. He was asked why nearly all bloggers are right wing? Good question!
Others steady on 13%
Others (Save Bedford Hospital party) polling at well over 50% in Bedford
Has there been a poll in Bedford?
Thanlks for the article Mike. i agree with your analysis. The electorate don’t want a Labour government, but then they don’t want a Conservative one yet either. Much done much still yet to do.
I also agree with commentator, that our dip may be the result of lack of publicity at the moment.
The economic competence issue is interesting. If there are wobbles in the economy then that will go up and help us at the ballot box, probably decisevly.
What with insolvencies being at an all time high and there being a 70% increase in house repossessions, the next 6 moths could be key. For those insolvency figures etc. see here:
http://aconservatives.blogspot.com/2007/02/personal-insolvency-at-all-time-high.html
18. Max, what do you think of the suggestion that Nicol Stephen will ask the First Minister position for himself in a coalition deal?
And do you think Margo MacDonald’ stence on possibly supporing Lab/LD coalition will gain or lose votes to her?
Re 9, Roger, even if Cameron was busted at the time he would have no criminal record now, and if he were busted he could possibly sue for libel undervarious provisions not the least of which is in the 1974 rehabilitation of offenders act. (There woudl be a defence of public interest possibly though)
I do think that a Consevative Party with George Osbourne David Cameron and William Hague at their vanguard will seriously struggle when the voters are faced with a real election.
Txt Tony!!
http://www.sundaymail.co.uk/news/tm_headline=txt-tony%26method=full%26objectid=18605335%26siteid=64736-name_page.html
“The Prime Minister is due in Scotland this week to throw his weight behind Labour’s campaign for the Scottish Parliament elections.”
Lordy, when will they learn?!? This is just a gift for the SNP
Re 16, Roger, well remembered on the hung parliament ting. You are of course right, the two David’s even went back to their constituencies to prepare for government!
1. How can they. That still leaves them almost thirty short.
BTW Any reckon this trends towards a “Canadian” result. The old party tossed out but the new one admitted on trial.
Re 19, Roger, obviously we are better educated so write better
Actually i think it is down to the left being demoralised with the right having a spring in it’s step.
Benedict. Are you sure a criminal record disappears?
re 16. I don’t think voters think like that. In my experience they look at options in each individual seat. There is always a die hard core who stick with their party come what may. Most voters look pragmatically at seats, almost a la dodgy bar charts. If their preferred party cannot win they will vote for the one most likley to defeat the party they like least. How many times have I heard I will vote for anyone who can beat x party.
There are seats like the Cotswolds where frankly it is likely the choice of MP is made by the Conservtaive Constituency Party and there are seats like I guess Falmouth and Cambourne which are genuine three party contets, but in most marginals there is a clear challenger to challenge the incumbent. In Cheltenham the Labour vote virtually disppears as it is a Lib Dem / Conservative contest.
I know many politicians from the Conservative and Labour Parties say that a government is elected during a general election. I see it as 600+ individual contests. The overall result depends on what happens in each of those small contests.
Of course the national cmapigns do have an impact, but in places like Cheltenham I suspect the tonnes of dodgy bar chart literature and lack of a Labour campaign persuade most Labour supporters, even if they love TB or GB to vote Lib Dem to keep the Conservative out.
Icarus the little old ladies will work even harder for Cameron now because he is “just like our … Brian….Joan…etc” who dabbled with drugs. And he is being picked on.
Granny and Granddad are almost certainly of the 60’s generation and did a little bit of mind blowing of their own in the summers of love. You might be amazed at how many of those sit down protesters and nascent flower power people turned out to be Tories.
So being judgmental and bumptious about Cameron is being judgmental and bumptious about them and theirs.
Re 30, One for under 18’s used to unless you commited another offence for a few years after 18.
For over 18’s it doesn’t.
16 Mostly Roger , people do not vote for or against a hung parliament ( although a few people may vote LibDem specifically with that aim in mind ) . People generally vote for the party which they want to have an overall majority but it is when there are insufficient people voting for 1 particular party for that to happen that a hung parliament will occur . At present we have a deeply unpopular government in getting on to mid term and yet the Conservatives are stalled well short of the support they need for an overall majority which leaves the possibilities as a Labour recovery under GB leading to an overall majority for them or a hung parliament as the 2 possible outcomes of the next GE .
30,
Roger a criminal record never disapears of the Police records.
However some criminal records are spent, which means they are not supposed to taken into consideration.
The re-hab of offenders act.
However in the real world we know they always are taken into considerations if known by employers.
On a previous thread I said I was prepared to give Cameron the benefit of doubt on the cannibis issue. I stick by that for now. But really I object to his “you are entitled to a private life before politics” line. It is hogwash, because..
a) He has been involved in politics from an exceptionally early age, despite the impression he wants to portray
b) His defence would allow all sorts of law breakers access to high office… It follows from his logic that he would be happy to see Jamie Bulger’s killers wear a blue rosette.
Surely, the proper defence is that smoking cannibis should not bar you from high office and that his party should adopt a liberal line on the issue in general to reflect his proper opinions as expressed on the subject of MS.
While the source might make this a little suspect the quote is direct.
It does look as if the BB war continues.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2007/02/11/nlabour11.xml
PB EXCLUSIVE …. PB EXCLUSIVE ….
Shocking Scholboy Revelations Hits Conservative Party
………………………………………………
The Conservative Party was left reeling last night after shocking allegations came to the surface that a senior conservative had been caught in flagrante dilecto as a 15 year old schoolboy. The allegations date back to as recent as 1949 and centre around the youthful indisretions of Alastair Matlock.
Having taken legal advice PB can exclusively reveal that “Spotty Matlock” was seen hatless in Beaconsfield High Street in June 1949 having just reprimanded some local oiks over their failure to tug the forlock. Matlock, known as the Beau Brummel of Beaconsfield, was said to be considering his position.
Meanwhile reaction to the hapless hatless scandal has been fierce :
Nicholas Soames - “I’ll eat my hat and anything else at hand if this is true.”
Bertram Gieves-Bilge, President of the Savile Hatters and Independent Tailors - “Matlocks hat lasts have been formally destroyed.”
Benedict White - “I’m so shocked I’ve given up blogging for good !!”
Meanwhile Mrs Matlock is said to be in a state of shock. The former cover girl for Horse and Hound and Miss Twin Set and Pearls 1957 is thought to have been admitted to the Priory Clinic. A friend of the family said last night that the “whole family feel cheated by the scandal but that plans for an explosive and exclusive £500,000 deal with the Daily Mail would proceed.”
In two final blows to Mr Matlock, Mike Smithson of Politicalbetting.com has rescinded Matlocks blogging rights and Colin W of the Liberal Democrats said the party was hopeful that such a wretch as Matlock would find a home in the Black Arts Department of Beaconsfield Liberal Democrats.
36 I suspect that he has to use the “youthful indescretion” line, beacuse there are more skeletons in his closet.
OT. Something I have always been curious about. Is Ann Leslie really much travelled foreign correspondent who has been shot at by snipers in Bosnia. I just dont believe a word of it. Apart from anything else her earings would have snagged on some barbed wire and she’d have at least lost an earlobe!
23 - Can’t see it happening Andrea. I doubt Labour or the SNP would stand for it.
Margo McDonald gets votes (primarily) because of who she is not for what she believes in. So I don’t think it’ll make much difference one way or the other.
40 Ah, so sometimes you talk sense, Roger.
37. The amazing thing is that Blair really seems to think he has a great ‘legacy’ to defend….rather than botched reforms in health and education, foreign policy disasters, creeping authoritariansim, and incompetence and corruption on a vast scale. Brown may be on to something here - pledging to halt Blair’s juggernaut of failure could be a real vote winner.
31. Correct. As has been pointed, a twin Labour advantage has been a) The greater willingness of Liberal Democrats to vote tactically in their favour and b)the disproportionately smaller chances that Conservatives will vote tactically against them. The problem is that their advanatge in a) is now much reduced and b)with the greater number of second placed Liberal Democrats they are for the first time working hard on Tory votes, as they used to on Labour votes in Conservative-Liberal marginals.
Very good Jack!
“b) His defence would allow all sorts of law breakers access to high office… It follows from his logic that he would be happy to see Jamie Bulger’s killers wear a blue rosette”
I would have no objection to them wearing a red rosette. Either you believe in the rehabillitation of ten year olds or you might as well imprison them for life.
Re 45, Roger *cough* I agree.
That said it if ever came out that XYZ PPC was one of the bulger pair, they would be dead in double quick time, they lnow it so I doubt it would arise.
45 Interesting moral point. Will have to think about it. For me it comes under forgive but not forget. Surely of the 60million Brits we could find people who are better suited to wear a rosette.
Otherwise you could have a descent into chaos. Why not add to the problem by having young fraudsters running the treasury. Not wise IMO.
My point was that Cameron’s “youthful indescretion” defence is complete hogwash and that it is the fact that it was a cannibis offence and not something worse is actually quite pertinent here.
Incedently I note some people suggesting that Cameron should or could have go a criminal reocrd for the canabos thing. As I understand it he is alegedged to have smoked some that some one else procured. In that sense I very much doubt the police would be interested or a criminal conviction would have ensued.
It is not as if he had soem for “personal use”.
48 Benedict. You clearly “inhaled” before typing 48 !!
OT: People hear David Grossman’s profile of Guido last night? With added Iain Dale…
http://www.bbc.co.uk/radio4/profile/pip/pinzz/
Dizzy sums the Cameron ’story’ up with the headline: EXCLUSIVE: David Cameron normal
http://dizzythinks.blogspot.com/
47 - Jonathan I can’t help feeling that battering a boy to death with bricks and iron bars before leaving his already dead body on a railway line would fall outwith most normal peoples understanding of the word ‘indescretion’.
It’s interesting that some sort of conviction never seem to be spent. I believe that if you have a dodgy record with children you will not get the police clearance however long ago it is, similarly with financial offences they have to be declared and nobody in the city will touch you with a bargepole.
I’m not saying I disagree with this because I don’t..
52 could not agree with you more
52 a fair point - whatever Cameron got up to the only possible victim was himself.
I personally would be very unlikely back a LD for public office who had a violent record, spent or not, but I couldn’t give a toss what drugs they had done unless it had left them with an addled brain.
51 I would have thought the proportion of people of that age who had taken the kind of drugs that Cameron has previously been alleged to have taken is actually pretty small - though maybe I led a sheltered life.
Even with the passing of time,is it not a little tasteless to quip,however innocously,about a case that truly turned the stomachs of nost decent people- I actually do believe the Bulger two should get another chance,but we should never,never forget the horror of that case in early 1993
51. I find irritating those kind of attitude which suggest that if you don’t smoke cannabis when you’re 15, you’re not normal.
Jon - I can’t imagine any violent individual with an addled brain ever becoming Prime Minister. Now deputy PM on the other hand . . .
The question is not whether the public ‘want’ a hung parliament (although I think polling suggests quite a few do.) Most people ‘want’ a Labour or Conservative government, they’re just equally divided as to which…
59. Your earlier question. Yes Welsh AMs do now have to choose between the list and the Constituency after Hain changed the law. Alexander rejected it for Scotland. Go figure as the yanks say.
51 - I agree with you Andrea. A lot of people do it a lot of people don’t - doesn’t make you more or less normal either way.
I would think when I was 15 about half the people I knew would have tried it and half wouldn’t.
Re 57, Patrick I agree.
61 - Punter is the decision taken by Westminster rather than Cardiff?
62. yes, Max, I agree with you
Go England!!
Cameron’s defence that what took place before he went into politics is private. Clearly, in itself as people on here have clearly pointed out that is complete and utter hogwash. It takes an extreme example to bang this into people’s heads.
The only real defence is to argue that cannibis smoking is not offence that should bar you from high office. Unfortuately, Cameron can’t say that, because the political elite (most in his party) disagree. Perhaps also he can’t say that, because it doesn’t end there.
I support Cameron on his stance to legalise Cannibis for MS sufferers. My wife has MS and could do with the boost. I find that this defence complete hogwash, and find it offencive because it stop progress on this very important issue.
64. The change was included in the Government of Wales act by Hain along with the granting to the Assembly of extra powers. All other parties opposed it.
64. yes, Max. It was in the Government of Wales Act 2006.
I think that Labour advantage in banning the dual candidacy was to prevent that list AMs stand in marginal seats and use their list incumbency there, practically cancelling the FPTP incumbency advantage.
67 - How many more times are you going to wash that poor hog this morning? I make it 3 already. *yawn*
70 You have to wash your hog a lot, with the amount of bullshit flying about in contempary british politics.
68 & 69 - Thanks.
I’m not entirely sure why the same didn’t happen with the Scotland Act as list MSP’s seem to be a great irritant to (mostly Labour) constituency MSP’s.
Morning all. On thread…
The price for hung parliament still looks good. Even the more extreme opponents of the Crosby Thesis would have to concede that the chances are at least 50/50 which leaves a good chunk of value in the price. The main drawback is that you have to tie your money up for a while - at least 18 months, I should say - but I can’t see the price getting much higher in the interim. It would need one of the big two to pull away in the polls, or the LDs to implode - possible but not likely.
The elapse of time will cause the price to shrink, especially when the betting-minded public start to realise the extent to which the election appears to be locked on course for an HP.
72. Presumably it did not benefit Labour in Scotland. How goes the campaign for you. I suspect rather less well than for your Assembly counterparts,meaning CCHQ will funnel resources west rather than north.
And off thread….
i) This Cameron/Cannabis stuff is a load of old tosh, isn’t it. Who cares? Move on.
ii) Barack Obama’s price shortened considerably following his announcement yesterday and is now 3.95 (3/1). Early backers who snapped up odds of up to 50/1 must surely be laying off now. It’s surprising that the announcement had such an effect because it was heavily trailed. Maybe the public response was better than expected, or maybe political punters tend to be a bit slow off the mark.
iii) Dog ran badly last night.
Think we’ve got to accept he’s found his level.
16:
“When the election comes the voters will choose between the three options; Labour Tory or hung parliament. I have seen no evidence that the public are any more interested in a hung parliament now than they have been in the past and people are sophisticated enough now to know what’s going on in their own constituency to tactically avoid it.”
Interesting theory, which sort-of seems to fit the facts; People talk about hung parliaments a lot in mid-term, but they don’t actually seem to happen much.
But what could the mechanism be whereby our “sophisticated” voters choose to avoid a hung parliament? Surely in a close election _nobody_ knows which way they’d have to tilt to avoid a hung parliament. Or do the voters have some kind of sixth sense / gut feeling / general vibe which told them (for example) that after the Sheffield rally Major was going to have the edge after all, so they may as well make sure he gets a decent majority? Even if this has worked in the past, we can’t expect it to work in the future. None of the voters that sophisticated will have time to vote. They’ll be spending the whole of election day on Betfair…
I guess a more convincing scenario would be a general bandwagon effect one way or the other as the election approaches. For example, if Cameron is ahead, but not convincingly, in the 6 months leading up to the election, makes it look like the government is on its last legs and encourages the waverers to vote Tory. Not sure how well that squares with Kinnock vs Major, though…
72 Max
Because there was not a “Government of Scotland Act 2006″, unlike in Wales, for Dougie Alexander to tag it onto!! He would have had to push through a specific piece of legislation.
Mind you, he may not have wanted to do it anyway! I have been fiddling about with that new Scotland seat predictor - http://www.scotlandvotes.com - and I reckon that Labour are going to be big beneficiaries of the fall-back list seats this time around. although I think that the biggest winners from the list system are the Tories - it has totally saved their bacon in Scotland.
Andrea It certainly is not abnormal:
“The Home Office conducts the British Crime Survey every 2 years, including questions on whether people have ever used a range of drugs, and if so whether they have done so in the past year or past month. The prevalence of cannabis use has been rising in these surveys since they were first conducted in the early 1980s. In the UK, around 15 million people would now admit having tried cannabis, with between 2 and 5 million regular users.”
http://www.idmu.co.uk/canuseuk.htm
And these are only the ones that will admit it. Many of the 60’s generation still won’t talk as it was very, very illegal in those days and now these people are often very respectable: doctors, lawyers, ministers of religion. So the real number might be higher.
The BBC reports:
“44% of 16 to 29 year-olds have tried cannabis at some point in their lives. Half of them have used it in the last year
Smoking marijuana is more popular in America than surfing the Internet”
http://www.bbc.co.uk/science/hottopics/cannabis/
In another report the BBC said that 42% of boys and 38% of girls aged 15 in England had tried cannabis. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/health/4044649.stm
67,
Jonathan I agree, wish Cameron would be totaly honest regarding his canabis use as a child and a adult.
He could use this opportunity to make progress as you suggest.
As most people are less judgemental now than when Clinton was being roasted by the virtuous right in America about inhaling,in the early nineties.
Did not stop Clinton becoming president, would not stop Cameron becoming PM.
78. Witan, no-one said it’s abnormal. It’s just that there’re people who don’t smoke cannabis and are perfectly normal without the “if you haven’t smoked it, you’re not normal” spin.
I don’t think I know a single person under 50 and over 20 who hasn’t experimented, at the very least, with cannabis. I know my peer group may be a self-selecting bunch of ne’er-do-wells, but still.
It’s no longer a resigning issue, it’s far from that. I’m not even sure cocaine taking - if it was long enough ago - would be enough to unseat a politician, nowadays.
Bush did charlie. Clinton did marijuana. They became presidents. People know what life is like.
Another reason this won’t hurt Cameron is because most journalists and many MPs have, surely, also tried dope. And those that haven’t are drunks.
The BBC has gone silly now with this paragraph leading the Cameron ’story’:
“Conservative leader David Cameron has refused to deny claims he smoked cannabis while he was a pupil at Eton College 25 years ago.”
And have you stopped beating your wife, Mr Cameron?
80 If anyone is ’spinning’ here is you. No-one else said that you have to smoke dope to be normal. You just chose to see it that way for some reason.
This is a spectacularly dull poll. Basically nothing of any statistical significance at all has happened. The only feature of interest is that the relentless coverage of the cash for peerages affair has had surprisingly little impact.
75 - on Obama, maybe people over-react a bit to a strong launch. It did look like a very good launch, and I suppose that leads people to believe Obama must have an impressive campaign team. There was quite a big movement to Hughes in the Lib Dem leadership contest last year when he was widely acknowledged to have had the best launch. But that’s the health warning of course - there was nothing to back it up and he quickly slid back.
16 - on this rare occasion, I think Roger is dead right. In 2009/10 given the real choice of Labour/Tory/Hung we will be in a totally different situation to:
1997 - everyone knew Labour would win and wanted to join in the kicking of the tories
2001 - everyone knew Labour would win, and the kicking the tories element wasn’t so novel, so people stayed at home
2005 - most people reckoned labour would win, but there wasn’t much desire for another huge majority so people took the chance to deliver a few safe kicks to the govt - bit of a byeelection general this one.
2009/2010 - people face either the tories back, labour to stay, or a hung parliament. Tories return to the tories seeing a lib vote as a vote for a lib/lab coalition, lib voters stay with the libs as their vote crumbles, Lab voters return to Labour to ensure the Tories don’t sneak in al Australia’s Howard.
Result - Tories 36%, Labour 39% Libs 19 % = Lab majority of 66 and tories slightly up, Libs down quite a bit - but not as much as the swing suggests!
And that’s as reliable as anything else based on polls this far out
[66] England are the first cricket team to beat Australia 2-0 in a home one-day finals series since the Windies in 1993 (and they weren’t a bad a side either …)
83. I’ll put my hands up and say If you haven’t at least tried dope, you’re not normal.
By definition, if most people have tried dope, trying dope is the norm. Therefore to have not tried it makes you abnormal. This is above and beyond questions as to whether you are abnormally boring or incurious if you haven’t spliffed up even once.
81,
Seant Hague from Yorkshire didn`t become PM after consuming 14 pints.
However in North Yorkshire where I come from, it went down well, knowing that.
But that isn`t cool like drugs to the metropoltan elite.
Binge drinking is derided everywhere it seems.
86 - Yes indeed. They can keep the Ashes. For me, the only prize that matters is the Commonwealth Bank Trophy - truly it is the Big One! Seriously though, it is a nice way to salvage pride and the performances in the finals have been really gritty.
84 Yes, James, I think that’s what has happened and it’s probably a slight over-reaction so now might be a good time to lay, especially if you backed at a big price.
90 - I got a pretty good price and have now done just that. I am impressed by Obama and think he has a good chance - but it would be silly not to lock in profits.
I would be more impresssed with Cameron if it turned out he was heavily into acid, like Ming. ALL politicians should be required to trip out at least once a month.
Perhaps we should squeeze in an extra one test ashes series before the boys come home!
88. Agreed. I don’t understand why everyone is so down on binge drinking. Surely the whole point of alcohol is to get absolutely sh1tfaced. To binge. To get drunk. That’s why people drink. People don’t drink beer and wine and vodka cause it tastes nice.
The French and the Italians and the rest of them don’t know how to drink. They just sit around sipping tiny amounts of sherry, admiring their own chinos and talking about pensions, and then they go home, thinking that they’ve had a good time. Losers.
You haven’t had a good time until the girl with the largest hooters has danced on the table topless while everyone throws pork pies at her.
93. The Ash-what? Ashes you say? What were they? Those long boring games around Christmas? Yawn. I’ve forgotten them already. Who won anyway?
One day games have always been the true soul of cricket.
83. Witan yawn
Your post was “Dizzy sums the Cameron ’story’ up with the headline: EXCLUSIVE: David Cameron normal” which can lead to think that if you haven’t smoked dope, you’re less normal.
Anyway I don’t want to waste time debating it with you. I just caught your post by mistake because it has a link, otherwise I would have just skipped it.
87. Seant, usual rubbish by you
87 - Never tried dope, never smoked, I don’t believe in running with the crowd and have always swatted away peer pressure.
Boring or incurious?
Rubbish.
Strong minded and individual more like.
87 - Well I haven’t tried it - so I’m clearly abnormal. Mind you, I’ve never been drunk either…
The pot ‘thing’ in itself isn’t that important, what is important is the attitude of those on the right (Paul Dacre) who despise Cameron. Dacre, will put his sewer rats onto Cameron’s druggie past until they turn up something more substantial, ‘My nights of drug shame with David Cameron’ Old Etonian ****** ********* a once close friend of Tory leader David Cameron reveals today how he and Cameron, binged on champagne and cocaine for nights and even days on end’ Max Clifford who is acting for ****** ******** said ‘All decent people will be appalled at the depths of depravity to which The Rt Hon David Cameron had once sunk, I will leave it to the judgement of the voters as to whether they think this man is fit to be Prime Minister’ Coming to a copy of the Daily Mail near you, sometime soon?
96 LOL! Andrea rubbishes Sean T!! Now that IS a headline story!
96. Andrea, have we hit a nerve?
You’re a student. You’re meant to have fun. So go on. Get a life. Go out. Smoke an enormous reefer then hire two gay hookers from Bavaria with lederhosen. It’s gotta be better than posting on this silly blog with a bunch of political anoraks from a country you don’t even live in.
100. PtP. I’m easily irritable today..not sure why!
And when I was replying to Witan, I was already thinking about what seant would have posted since I already forecasted his opinion about it (there already was a debate about it during the leadership campaign and when I mentioned the “if you haven’t smoked it, it’s not normal” spin, I actually thought about seant potential opinion)
98 now that is unusual. Trouble is with Sean T he is so excitable I can’t tell anymore whether he is joking or not.
Clearly Andrea got out of bed the wrong side this morning, whilst SeanT decided today was a good day to wind up the thread.
According to the Observer, a small but significant percentage of people have fantasised about having sex with Margaret Thatcher or the Queen. One man actually fantasised about tying up the Queen and Margaret Thatcher together and then sexually assaulting them both simultaneously.
Now THAT is abnormal. I hope.
101. seant, you’re supposed to an adult man, not 40 year old still trapped in the mind of an excitable teenager who failed to grow up
101 seanT’s secret fantasies revealed !!!!
seant: do you have problems with women?
107. JackW, Seant already confessed his secret fantasies involve Hazel Blears and Diane Abbott…
108 Thousands of them apparently !
Seant thanks for the post at 94 very funny, well it made me laugh, reminded me of many a night in York and leeds.
Lots of good times and no violence involved.
92. Well most Lib Dems give the impression of being on hallucinogenic substances already…
106. Well spotted, Andrea. This is why the title of my next volume of memoirs (Bloomsbury, 2007) is called Never Change A Baby With a Hangover.
Ostensibly the title refers to the difficulties of combining social freedom and fun with the responsibilities of parenthood.
But there is a double meaning. I am the baby. I can’t grow up. I’m still living and thinking like an 18 year old. I can’t change. And I probably won’t change. Because you can never change a baby with a hangover.
109 Andrea. That makes Matlock’s hatless shame seem like small beer ….. talking of which I’m out to lunch now …
Laters.
104. Witan, no, I get out of my bed from the right side this morning. Infact my posts have been ok until mid-morning.
Looking at the pictures of the two politicians at the top of this thread, bright, shiny faced Cameron looks like an advert in favour of cannabis. He looks a darned sight healthier than Gordon Brown.
Hagard, greasy-haired Gordon Brown shows what can become of you when you spend most of your University days and evenings in the library researching the history of the Scottish Labour Party.
116 Charlotte Corday. Take a bath !
Definately laters ……
116. But Charlotte Corday, how many nights did you spend thinking on how to kill Marat?
[113] Perhaps the book should be called You Can Never Change a Baby with a Hangover until the Baby Wants to Change
113 - What on earth is Sean feeding his baby to give her a hangover?
I too am out for lunch - well at least for a long walk to get rid of my, yes, hangover. However I note that there has been no sudden outrage or shock at my post above, where I pointed out that “according to the Observer, a small but significant percentage of people have fantasised about having sex with Margaret Thatcher or the Queen. One man actually fantasised about tying up the Queen and Margaret Thatcher together and then sexually assaulting them both simultaneously.”
I take it from the lack of surprise on this blog that many commenters on pb.com find this fantasy perfectly understandable, if not common. Perhaps the man actually cited in the Observer, the one with the tying-up-Maggie-and-the-Queen fantasy, was one of us. If so, my vote is for Matthew Partridge.
As Jack would say, “laters”.
I know it makes a pretty dull headline, but what that poll finds is ‘no change’. The margin of error is plus or minus three percent (or perhaps a little smaller with YouGov). Any changes smaller than that must be assumed to be random.
120 John O (and others), in case you hadn’t realised, I can promise you that when Sean T writes an ambiguous line, the ambiguity is entirely deliberate.
Have enjoyed the sniping this morning. Andrea is even more handsome when angry! LOL
99 if its the mail vs cameron i am on his side anytime the mail is a cancer on this country.
What a bit of no news.
Can you imagine this coming up in political debates?
Interviewer: How do you respond that the Government has destablised the planet by entering into an illegal war while removing all traces of privacy and civil liberties at home?
NuLabour Apologist:Well, the other guy smoked weed so ner, ner, ner.
Perhaps we just don’t have such dirty minds as you Sean and only actually read the political posts.
Looks like a Tory pre-emtive strike for the May local elections
Get it out of the way so they can slaughter Labour
And slaughter Labour they will,make no mistake.
Jack W. and Andrea re posts 117 and 118. I see this blog attracts some of the dwindling numbers who know something about history (cf. today’s “Sunday Telegraph” page 12). These days I confine myself to sticking the knife metaphorically into politicians I dislike.
123.”Have enjoyed the sniping this morning. Andrea is even more handsome when angry”
was I so OTT? Ok, maybe comment 96..
129 OTT Andrae? I wet myself laughing!
…still laughing so much I managed to spell your name wrong. Pologies.
130. PtP, I thought I could have offended Witan…I didn’t really worry about seant as I know he won’t get upset easily
Nearly choked over my sunday roast when I read this one !!
It must be time for Blair to go now
Another opportunity for David Cameron to “put the boot in” at PMQ’s
I can’t wait
Ever wondered how Blair made it to Prime minister.
David Shayler an MI5 whistlblower says blair worked as an asset for MI5 informing on labour activists at the start of is career.
David Shayler talking in Bristol
http://www.thetruthseeker.co.uk/article.asp?id=3710
But I think the only way we can explain Blair’s behaviour is that he is blackmailable by the intelligence services. I know that the intelligence services have files on most of the Labour government because I saw some of the files while I was there. In fact … [inaudible audience interjections, laughter] …Well, one of the things I want to tell you is that – I actually, I didn’t see this myself, I must admit – but somebody who was reviewing Blair’s file, this was when Blair was unknown really, in 1992, not particularly well known, told me that Blair was an MI5 agent. In the 1980s he’d reported on members of CND and the so-called Trotskyists in the Labour Party
133 Mooooooo, splat.
The truth about hung parliaments is you can’t wish one into being. As in ‘74 when it all but happened, its a freak., you can’t plan for it! Labour managed to stagger on, with help from the Libs, till they crashed in ‘79. When the next GE arrives, Tories/Labour/Libdem politicians will not be drawn on coalitions etc. during the campaign. So if a hung parliament is the result, frantic and furious horse trading will then ensue. A messy compromise between two parties will be arrived at. The largest party will then start to look for the best time for a GE, in which it will hope to get a clear majority. If there is a confused result again, then the call for a PR system will become overwhelming.
133 Herbert
This thread indicates that, on the whole, the people who post on PB are fairly tolerant in their attitude towards towards drug-taking. But before lunch?
133
I suppose that if David Cameron likes grass then according to David Shayler tony Blair is a supergrass.!!!
As good as it gets for a Sunday !
Another crate please Gordon
135 Coldstone - “The truth about hung parliaments is you can’t wish one into being. As in ‘74 when it all but happened, its a freak.”
It is *normally* a freak, Coldstone. Great betting opportunities commonly arise when the conventional wisdom suddenly ceases to apply. All the indications are that far from being freakish, an HP looks like being the eminently predictable outcome next time. The public’s reluctance to dispense with the conventional wisdom should ensure good betting value for some time yet, probably until very close to the GE.
135 - You can wish for anything, but you’ve no guarantee anything will happen!
There won’t be a hung parliament next time for the reasons I outlined above, but people who desire one can vote in the way they feel will best bring it about - ie vote Liberal wherever that party have a chance of winning, or Nationalist in Scotland / Wales, and hope the Tory / Lab fall of seats balances out as evenly as possible!
137 Herbert - You are starting to answer your own posts. For pity’s sake, reduce the dose.
Re 140, Peter I like the idea of Blair being an MI5 agent, it fits in with my theory that there are only three members of Sinn Fein/IRA who were not British agents
[141] And I believe questions have been asked about one of those three, over at Slugger O’Tooles
Herbert, Corn Circles where do you stand on those? (don’t answer Wiltshire)
141 - Speaking of Ireland Peter Hain must be getting desperate if he’s trying to court John McDonnel in his bit for the deputy leadership!
http://observer.guardian.co.uk/politics/story/0,,2010518,00.html
Re 142, Innocent,
O/T - anyone think that the Govt doth protest too much about the “police state” allegations. Whether they have a case or not, the extent to which they are personally attacking a guy held by police for a week and released without charge seem a bit OTT>
143 - further essential info on Blair’s unsuitability can be found here - it truly is a wonder that the govt is still going after all this information is in the public domain!
http://www.propagandamatrix.com/blair_protection.html
133 - if Blair was an agent for the security services, I would have thought it would have been for the American rather than British ones. Think about it. Could explain a lot.
144 - people I know in Northern Ireland are of the opinion that Hain is willfully trying to p*ss the DUP off as much as is humanly possible in order to make as many of them as possible want to take power from him and make an Assembly government work. From gay adoptions to supercouncils to wreaths at Croke Park - if this really is his tactic then he’s implementing it well. And if true then hats off to Tony Blair too - if he wanted to annoy people in Northern Ireland he couldn’t have chosen a better NI Secretary.
149 - is he deliberately trying to Piss off the middle class marginal voters in England as well?
Peter Hain seems to be going a bit Old Labour with his call for bonuses to be 2/3 dotated to charity. Especailly since 41% of them are already paid in tax… or is that after tax?
133. I’m surprised Shayler, being the attention-seeking fantasist he is, doesn’t post on this site…
What pisses me off most about the kinds of things Hain et al are saying to win votes in the deputy leadership is not the content (which I largely agree with) but the fact that these ideas and proposals will be dropped less than 13 minutes after the deputy election is over, and we will never hear of them again…until the next contest starts.
153. Yes and if you and I think that so must a lot of Labour MPs.
144. Refer you to 74.
On topic: The poll is within the MOE but fits with the general impression of downward Tory drift in recent weeks. I don’t think serious Tories here actually disagree with that - they just think it’ll be reversed soon.
153/154: This line means the candidates can’t win, though, doesn’t it? If they say routine things they are derided as conformist clones. If they differ they are marked as about-to-be turncoats. We shouldn’t overestimate the power of the deputy leadership, but it’s an opportunity to influence the general direction of the party: if Hain wins it will be a clear vote for a somewhat more left-of-centre position.
Actually Nick 37% Tory doesn’t represent much of a drift at all, 37-39 is about the range it’s been. What we have seen is Labour picking up a point or two as prisons etc dropped off the news radar in favour of bird flu and snow.
Do you actually support confiscation of bonuses Nick? I thought you were a Blairite rather than a socialist.
156. I think it’s the sense that Hain wants it both ways that annoys people. For example he wrote an article for the Blairite Progress magazine arguing that there is no need to debate our values and direction in Govnerment. Then he comes out with a leftist token gestures on city pay. Hain makes a play of his CND membership and yet is in favour of trident renewal. Peter made the case for the Iraq war and yet complains that we went to war with the most right-wing administration there has ever been in the US. He was thoroughly opposed to european integration and is now an ultra-enthusiast. Of course politicians will change their mind from time to time, but Peter’s lack of grace in attacking those who hold the former positions he himself held is doesn’t help his popularity or credibility.
58. “I find irritating those kind of attitude which suggest that if you don’t smoke cannabis when you’re 15, you’re not normal.”
I agree. It’s like those who claim that if you don’t binge drink, you are also somehow not “normal”.
Loads of us haven’t ever taken drugs, I would say the majority of Britain actually. As for citing Bush’s drug-taking as proof that it’s OK - it’s not. Drugs kill your brain-cells