ICM puts the Tories back at 40%
February 19th, 2007
..and the pollster reports a 13% lead if it’s Cameron vs Brown
A huge boost for David Cameron’s Tories is reported to be in tomorrow’s ICM poll for the Guardian. According to CONHome the figures are with changes on last month CON 40 (+3): LAB 31 (nc): LD 19% (-4).
This is only the third time that ICM has recorded a 40% share or more for the Tories in a decade and a half and the nine point margin puts the party in a situation where it could conceive of a parliamentary majority.
On the second question to be asked in the poll - how would you vote if it was Cameron’s Tories vs Brown’s Labour vs Ming’s Lib Dems - there’s an even bigger boost for the Tories. The shares are with comparisons on January - CON 42% (+2): LAB 29% (-3%): LD 17% (-3).
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The 13% Tory margin on this question is by far the largest that any pollster has recorded since Cameron became Tory leader in December 2005.
So again we have ICM being the pollster that is finding the largest Tory shares. The named leader question is in sharp contrast to what Populus found just two weeks ago. Then Labour’s relative position against the Tories was 2% better with the Chancellor in charge. ICM has Brown’s Labour doing 4% worse.
There has been a big change in the way that Populus is asking this question and in their current forms the approaches of the two pollsters cannot be compared with each other. I will do another piece on this during the week.
I have long said that the only thing that stands between Gordon and Number 10 are bad poll findings. Well they don’t come much worse than this.
A lot will depend on how the Guardian choose to report the poll tomorrow. In the betting Gordon is still at 0.19/1 for leader - maybe that will change a bit tomorrow.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
And “others” up again
It’s obvious Labour will be back in landslide territory the moment Gordon takes over, but this is still not being picked up by the polls. Just goes to show what an inexact science it is, I guess.
As on the other thread:
This is what Baxter throws up, just for fun;
Headline figures:
Con = 342
Lab = 245
Lib = 31
CON MAJ - 34
Brown figures:
Con = 397
Lab = 208
Lib = 14
CON MAJ = 144
I don’t for one minute believe that the Lib Dems will be reduced to 14 seats though.
Actually, I’d like to see how the regular posters on CONtinuityIDS take this poll. I guess they’ll do the whole “we should be at least 30% ahead in the polls at this stage…” thing, as usual…
2. Are you Roger in disguise?
Actually, I do think you’re voicing a view that a lot of people in the Labour Party have - that whatever the polls say, things will be better under Brown. And as the polls are not very consistent, there’s evidence for either side.
There is one other hurdle for Gordon to get over: his final budget. Despite being in post for 10 years and having cultivated the image of a chancellor in utter command of his brief, he’s not been terribly good at budgets; it’s often a lot of noise, not much substance and some bad headlines come the weekend when the details have been picked through. I wouldn’t expect it to be much different this time - there’s not enough money in the pot for a giveaway.
But the most striking thing about the poll isn’t Labour at all. It’s the swing from the Lib Dems to the Conservatives.
Might be a good moment to pop over to IG Index and buy DC, available at 88.7. Mike thought he was a buy when we were discussing it this morning but I wasn’t so sure.
I think I just changed my mind.
It may be that voters are moving through the Liberal Democrats and on into the Conservatives in the expression of how they will vote; when they start moving straight from Brown/Labour to Conservatives the lead will really open up. When so many voted Labour in 1997 a lot were going straight over from Conservatives to Blair/Labour. Brown’s Labour is not anywhere near as widely liked as Blair’s, but but it’s hard for voters who were part of that affirmation (since so miserably betrayed) in 1997, to vote for the Conservative Party, something they wanted so much to reject then, until they are convinced it has truly been recast. In the meantime they are expressing some of their disappointment by saying they will vote LD.
Ming does nothing and the LDs go up and he does nothing and they go down. Could this be evidence, as Mike says, that the Tories do best when DC is in the news almost whatever the subject? Further revelations of youthful indiscretions? Bring ‘em on! He’ll get plenty of coverage at the election; will the bloom have gone off by then or can he retain his appeal intact for the next couple of years or so? Fingers crossed.
what I want to know is who are the LibDems who when confronted with Gordon B as Labour leader desert the party and vote other.
re 2. has Roger got a pseudonym?
Before Tory posters start having wet dreams,one swallow does NOT make a summer-and this equates with pretty much where Mrs.T was in early 1989 when her government had held office aa long as Mr.Blair’s- but credit where it’s due,the Tories can at least feel they’re back in the mix
5 I don’t think there is any evidence that there has been any swing at all from LibDem to Conservative within the last month . All we are seeing are variations from montn to month within M of E and sampling variations of public opinion that has been pretty static for months now . This poll for example is almost identical to December’s ICM figures .
8. I have yet to be convinced that the Lib Dems are a leader-driven party since the removal of Kennedy. I think people vote for them because they’re an alternative - little to no thought is given to Ming.
I think the problem for the Lib Dems is that Charles Kennedy did have a certain personal vote, at least in my view, coupled with this “I don’t like either of the big two” feeling. The challenge for Ming will be picking up a similar vote. That, I feel, will be the difference between losing a few seats or gaining a few at the next election. I still personally believe they’ll lose seats, though it won’t be a rout because Lib Dems are famously hard to unseat. I’m thinking back to 2001-ish levels.
Reading this new thread immediately after the one about online voting brought up an obvious link between the two:
Don’t ICM use online voting for their polls? (Correct me if I’m wrong, but I know at least one of the major pollsters does, and I think it’s ICM.) If so, it’s a little funny that everyone (rightfully!) complains about the possibility of bias/fraud in online voting, but no one seems to think it’s a problem in opinion polls.
I guess the answer to that is: an opinion poll is VASTLY less important than an election, so people have much less incentive to go to the effort of cheating on them; and any resulting bias/fraud matters far less than it would in an election, for the same reason. But it’s still a possible area of concern.
On-topic: obviously, good result for the Conservatives, bad for the Lib Dems. It’s anyone’s guess why - do we chalk this one down to the ‘Cameron publicity effect’, and argue that the increased coverage he got from the drug stories last week has served to boost his party’s ratings? If so, that’s one line of attack that Labour definitely shouldn’t take in future!
Fantastic poll for us! Mind you, it is only one poll!
How did continuity IDS headline it?
Ouch! I’ll let commentator and others have a fair gloat without quibbling.
12. “I don’t think there is any evidence that there has been any swing at all from LibDem to Conservative within the last month” - surely the published figures provide some evidence.
You are right that it might be a shift within the MoE; equally, it could be a genuine movement. We don’t know either way, though 3% is a fairly sizable change in share.
On Betfair Alan Johnson’s price to be next leader seems to have come in a bit in recent days. The Sun’s recent endorsement of him for deputy seems a little surprising considering the lack of importance of the deputy leader position. It got me thinking…I wonder if his deputy campaign could convert into a leadership campaign? If he’s got 70-100 MPs supporting him for deputy in a crowded field, he should by my reckoning be able to poll well in the PLP for a leadership bid. The deputy bid allows him to raise the very issues that he could ultimately stand for leadership on. And of course the contrast between the ‘back stories’ of Johnson and Cameron couldn’t be more striking.
re 8. I’m not a Tory and loathe all the Bullingdon stuff that Cameron was associated with but I do think that what boosts his and the Tory ratings is him simply being in the news. He does have a star quality that has a special appeal and I’m proud that I spotted this in July 2005 when everybody said the Tory leadership was a certainty for Davis.
I also think that this works the other way round with Brown. The more people see of the Chancellor the less they like him and Labour. I’ve just laid £250 on Gordon for the leadership. Tomorrow’s headlines will be bad for him and no doubt we will see his team of astro turfers out in the blogsphere attacking ICM.
I think this poll is an outlier - indeed it raises serious doubts about ICM’s accuracy given that better polling companies are putting the Conservative lead lower (although I still think that even these polling companies have overestimate the Tory position). I also think that when Miliband, Hutton or Reid become PM Labour will go back into the lead.
re 20. Matthew - it is not an outlier by ICM’s recent standards. Since October their Tory ratings have been 39, 37, 39, 40, 37 and now 40. That looks pretty consistent. Mori last month had the Tories on 39%.
Slightly O/T,could anyone please tell me on what day the Chancellor will present his budget?
19 - I cannot deny Cameron’s star quality, either.
13 - I think the LD hope is that any losses to the Tories at the next election will be more than offset by gains from Labour. As I keep saying, turnout in key seats will be, well, key.
We shall see what May brings before it is safe to make too many predictions. The evidence on the ground here in Reading is that Labour are all but disappearing. This is one of the few Southern councils they have had a tight grip on for many years. If there were all out elections here this year, they would be out.
20 - All three would make excellent Labour leaders. I’m considering starting a ‘Tories for Milliband Campaign’.
15 - Didn’t say a great deal about it Benedict. All though to be fair we don’t actually know what share of the vote UKIP got yet.
20. “although I still think that even these polling companies have overestimate the Tory position)”
On what evidence do you base that statement?
16
no gloating, just want to point out that I did in fact predict this when the last bad for the Tories Populus poll came out.
I said then as Mike points out in 19 that Mike’s theory that for DC all publicity is good publicity was about to get a testing - perhaps these are the results. I would like to know when the fieldwork was done.
But Populus was good for Nick, this is good for me, these things even out. I am waiting really for the results of the May local elections to see a significant shift in the polling position.
20/21. As Mark Senior said at [12], this result is almost identical to December’s poll.
To answer Mark, in December, that poll looked like an outlier for the Lib Dems - their six scores from August to January being 22, 22, 22, 22, 18, 23. The eighteen looks the odd one out. But now we’ve got a 19 this month, it does look like the Lib Dems have lost a bit of support compared with their position in the Autumn.
LOL Mike @19, re historic “spoof” poster Matthew P at 20, right on cue
It’s clearly an excellent poll for the Tories and Cameron in particular. Looks like the drugs thing did well for him. Looks like 99% of PB.com are more in tune with the public, and Snowflake and her small temperance movement clique are not in tune with the public!
Wierd that there is a net -4 vote in the names vote…
19.”Tomorrow’s headlines will be bad for him and no doubt we will see his team of astro turfers out in the blogsphere attacking ICM. ”
I’ve not still understood this astro turfers thing (what does astro turfer mean, btw?)
It’s quite evident from this ICM poll that the British public enjoy a leader who enjoys a bit of puff.
News that Gordon was seen leaving No 11 smoking a reefer the size of Belgium cannot be verified. Meanwhile reports come in that Ming has put in several repeat prescriptions for mainline Philisan.
I imagine Tories both here and elsewhere are high on this news without any chemical inducement:lol:
Blue Moon/Commentator/MBoy (8,26 & 28) - regarding the rather heated debate the other night about the impact of Dave’s ‘drug declaration’.
Opinion was pretty sharply divided as to whether his announcement would do him more harm than good. I think the Brand Index (Politicians’ Popularity) result pretty much settles the argument. Public opinion seems to be much the same as PB opinion in this matter.
This latest poll seems to be further confirmation. Get onto IG Index and buy Dave!
30 - A spokesman for the chancellor has denied the story Jack. He is emphatic that the reefer was in fact the size of England.
Commentator
You correctly chided me the other night about my cheeky comments on your tipping ability. I therefore raise my hat to you tonite. But before you get too carried away, look up my post to Jan of Norway (45 previous thread) concerning the fate of tipsters everywhere.
This ICM poll certainly has had the party HQ’s in a spin :
News release from Conservative Central Office.
We can confirm that David Cameron smokes cannabis on a daily basis and also snorts cocaine prior to PMQ’s. However this is a private matter and not a matter for public discourse.
…………………………………
Labour Party Press Release.
Gordon Brown is in his spare time a Colombian drugs baron who has ensured that the chemical substance economy has remained stable due to his enlightened stewardship.
………………………………….
Press Release From the Lib Dems
Hey man ….. dig those bar charts …. Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
Obviously a very good poll for the Conservatives. The Cameron publicity effect is very important as it will be wall to wall at the election run-up. Just had a quick look at electoral calculus and the Conservatives get a majority at CON 39% LAB 31% LD 19% which doesn’t look too unlikely to me, considering recent polls.
Incidentally, for those interested in Bayrou after the previous thread, here’s a brief guide: http://www.paris-link-home.com/news/121/ARTICLE/1647/2007-01-28.html
Andrea
A wordplay based on “grassroots democracy” efforts, “AstroTurf” refers to the bright green artificial grass used in some sports stadiums, so “astroturfing” refers to artificial grassroots efforts.”
For more http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Astroturfing
To further my newly burnished rep as a predictor I will now say that the next ICM poll will show a little drift downwards. Polls are up and down, it’s the 8 factors I cited a thread or two ago, starting with the evisceration of Lab’s councillor activist base that I anticipate in May’s locals, that gives me my confidence in my much-mocked prediction of an overall Tory majority at the GE of 20-40.
35 You weren’t actually ‘ill’, were you Jack? It was rehab, wasn’t it?
Come on Jack, you can admit it. You’re amongst friends.
Ted fascinating! I never made that connection, just knew that “astro-turfing” is political pros posting on the internet anonymously to big up their parties.
35. Jack.
SNP: Cameron, Gordon and Ming didn’t use Scottish drugs. It’s a snub to Scotland. Tomorrow Nicola Sturgeon will launch a “better value for our dope” campaign.
37. Thanks Ted. So it’s like when never heard posters pop up to say “I’m a floating voter, I’ve never voted Party X, but leader Y would make me vote for it. I’m very impressed”.
I think we’ve them from all sides here.
Peter you’re very kind, but America has taught me to stick to predictions in areas I’m involved in - am just a big, big fan of Cameron and see something special in him, special enough to overcome this historic deficit and take us into government.
38 - win/win for you if you are wrong. If Tories go up you can crow about the lead, if down, about your tipster abilities
Cameron is either very lucky, or very clever.
His recent publicity has meant that the deadline for the six-month extension of the botched Tory nomination process for the London mayoralty has gone un-noticed.
39 PtP. I’ve certainly been popping the odd few (hundred) pills recently !!
44. At this rate, the elections will take place before the selection of the candidate.
MBoy @ 28: you beat me to it!
This poll is sufficiently bad to bring out the clunking fist of Matthew Partridge…Labour must be quaking.
Not great for LDs either, in fact a stinker! We’ve been very quiet following all the bird flu and gun crime issues, which aren’t obvious vote winners for us, we could do with another ID cards vote sometime soon!
And just one thought on internet voting, if I may. We’ve seen on X Factor and Big Brother that people will vote in their millions when they really care about what they are voting for. Turnout can be increased if we present the choice clearly and enthusiastically. How we do it is probably secondary, but I doubt internet voting is any less secure than postal at the end of the day. I’d be interested to see the results of pilots of internet voting.
40 It doesn’t actually work very well here though, does it? I mean, the regular posters are so well established that their posts carry real weight, whether you agree with them or not. Astro-turfers are generally one-off posters who are easily disregarded because they never develop a point of view. Or, if they do post at all regularly, their bleatings are so pathetically predictable that they are ineffective.
That’s what makes The Creatures of the Night such a harmless bunch. Much the same applies to A-Ts.
23. That is precisely what they are thinking. I think they are braced on a particularly bad night v con for up to twenty net losses. The rest are so well entrenched even a relative Tory wave would be hard pressed to remove more than one or two. They are I believe also thinking that up to then Labour seats are eminently takeable as of now, and not assuming any Labour meltdown to put more in the frame. So could fifity been seen a probable floor, forty at the maximum. There is a further factor call it “revenge.” Labur supporters wanted revenge against the Tories after so long out and so in many hopeless Labour seats went Liberal Democrat. They believe and I think with some justification they can go to Tory voters in places like City Durham and just as they once did for Labour supporters say look use us to really give the Government a kicking. Would have thought it would feature in the Liberal Democrat playbook.
27 With poll sample sizes of just 1,000 you will get outliers more often than not , I do wish we had regular pollsters such as Emnid and Forsa in Germany who poll weekly with sample sizes of 2,500 to 5,000 . I will stick to what I have been saying for many months now that opinion has been virtually static since June apart from a brief blip at Conference time .
*up to ten Labour seats.*
45 Good for you, Jack. So pleased you are cutting down.
A pleasing poll for us, but as ever it’s just one poll, etc, etc.
Must be a bit of a blow for Brown, after January’s figures seemed to show a bit of a filip. Can he sustain many polls like this or worse? A couple of months of these figures and he does start look like Michael Foot territory.
For those who think (I agree in part) that some of this is due to the Cameron star being in the limelight regardless of the reason why, then presumably we should see even more of this come an election campaign when the media is full of him. It may even eclipse the similar effect of higher profile the Lib Dems claim during GEs.
50 Mark S
My eyes generally glaze over when people go into the technicalities of polling but one thing I have picked up from Anthony Wells’s excellent articles is that sample size doesn’t make much difference once your sample is over 1,000.
I think that’s right but please correct me if I’m wrong.
49 Punter. I think you are about right. IMO 45 is the present floor.
52 PtP.
Guardian has it online - http://politics.guardian.co.uk/labour/story/0,,2016791,00.html
Headline is Brown v Cameron - exclusive poll puts Labour 13 points adrift
Re. 2, I’m a Labour activist, and this forecast strikes me as just a bit optimistic.
12 - I wouldn’t worry about Mark Senior, he’ll never admit that something is good for the Tories or that any LibDems are swinging away from the party.
20 - Matthew Partridge. Brown is the leader in the race and will, according to most polls, damage Labour’s poll rating. Yet people still want him as leader. Why? Yet I’m not sure any of those names you mention will get a better bounce.
I know this poll will provide us with a few hysterical Tories but we shouldn’t get too exciting until a sustained trend appears and that clearly isn’t happening just yet. Once Cameron breaks through the 40 mark in a series of polls *then* we can let off a party popper in celebration (but no more).
54: That’s essentially correct. The point is that if two numbers are broadly equal, then sampling a pool of *any* size 1000 times is likely to produce roughly equal numbers - the fact that the full pool is 60 million or 60 billion is neither here nor there. But given that a chunk of the 1000 are usually don’t knows, won’t says, etc., I think that the MOE is probably still of the order of 3% with a 1000 sample.
48. May I ask how long it takes for people to start responding to posts? Or will I be forever “pathetically predictable”?
55. Thanks. What do you think of their prospects v Labour. I think they are better than some of their more gloomy supporters think.
From the Guardian report:
“Falling Lib Dem support is part of the reason that the Conservatives have climbed in both sets of results. The fact that the party’s support drops further when Sir Menzies’ name is mentioned suggests that, as with Mr Brown, he is not attracting support to his party.”
And…
“But there is no evidence that the UK Independence party is eroding Conservative support from the right. The newly-rebranded Independence party scores 1%, against 2% for the Green party and 4% for the combined SNP and Plaid Cymru vote in Scotland and Wales.”
I cannot believe that the Guardian is doing this … an agenda somewhere perhaps?
I also think that Anthony King of the Telegraph should read this … it’ll make him choke on his cornflakes!
62. Why you shouldn’t believe it? I can’t see anything shocking being mentioned in the passage you quoted
60 Sorry, tjm, did I ignore a question you asked me? Please refer me to it if I did.
Andrea - only because of the Guardian’s political bent and acknowledging falling LibDem support, Campbell’s leadership problem etc and denying that UKIP threaten the Tories.
63 - The shocking thing is that UKIP aren’t in double figures, despite all the dissolutioned Tories we keep hearing about.
65. You can’t report the opposite with those numbers.
61 Punter. This is tricky. What with the Brown succession et al. My own view FWIW is that Labour under Brown will recover somewhat into a near dead heat with the Tories but remain vunerable to the Lib Dems in some seats such as Watford.
My range presently is 10-25 losses to the Conservatives offset by 5-15 gains from Labour.
66 Isn’t it the case that UKIP have become such a comedy act, nobody will own up to supporting them any more?
Very nice poll - but I’ll agree with both Mark Senior and Commentator - this could still be within the MoE of the Con 37-38, Lab 31-34, LD 18-21 “box” in which everyone seems to remain. And a regression to the mean would seem to be indicated for the next one.
Mind you, could be a real jump - I’d like to see a couple more at 40% - or one or two at 41-42 for the Cons, and then I’ll really be smiling.
ICM’s record stands well to scrutiny, mind (and for Alasdair at 14 - the internet pollster is YouGov; ICM use telephone polling) so I’ll allow myself a five-minute gloat. But I’ll wait a little for some confirmation that the parties have moved away from Mark Senior’s mean score - he has every chance of being right on that.
64. Oh, not at all! It’s just your post shone light on why my occasional posts are virtually always ignored! I guess I’m being dismissed as a partisan astroturfer, though I’m much amused that anyone would consider me a “professional”.
56 Very damaging for Brown that the Guardian has chosen to report the story that way.
But like I say, I don’t anticipate sustained numbers at 40% or over for us until after May.
Obviously good news, and encouraging in the run up to May 3rd. However, most other polls are a little bit less good. Am I right in thinking that ICM have shifted more strongly to the Conservatives than the other polling companies, post 2005?
68. Agreement. Although I would have said ten to fifteen v Labour. I do think that Tory voters like Labour will be far easier to shift after so long in their hopeless seats. Although I would not be sure on seats like Watford where the Tories still remain numerically in contention. Its Labour MPs in seats with 20% Tory votes, with Lib Dems second but with Tories never in contention that should really be having kittens you agree. Name any other seats on your roster.
I will re-post what I posted the other day. See especially comment 4:
On thread for a change - I firmly believe that the Conservatives will win a small working majority at the next GE, if it is delayed until around 2009/10. Before I get howls of derision from the usual suspects let me explain my reasoning.
1. Brown will get a minimal (if any) bounce before falling back again. The economy will continue to slowly get worse for many people with rising interest rates and tax increases biting. There is also a risk of the housing market in the SE overheating and going into gentle reverse gear.
2. Cameron will move into Phase 2. Policies will be launched and firmer positions taken on a number of Conservative pleasing issues, as well as positions (NO ID Cards etc) which will attract Lib Dem and ex New labour supporters. He will risk losing a few on the right by not pledging tax cuts - although further hints will be dropped into conversation - and he will continue to adopt liberal social positions. There is an outside chance he may lose an MP or two who defect to UKIP or sit as Independents in protest, but I judge this as unlikely as long as he leads in the polls. Even Bernard Matthews’ turkeys dont vote FOR Christmas!
3. We will see the first MP defections TO the Conservative party. I think that several Lib Dem MPs who have had talks already with Cameron’s office and CCHQ, will jump ship if they see that he intends to stick with his liberal social agenda and not revert to a more right-wing style of rhetoric. They may be joined by one or two increasingly unhappy back bench Labour MPs who expect to lose their seats. (I am already aware of one Lib Dem MP who has privately expressed his profound admiration at the way that Cameron handled the drugs allegations this weekend).
4. On the polls - by the Autumn of this year I expect the Conservatives to be breaching 40% in several polls and maybe touching 42-43%. Labour will be hitting 28-29% in some like YouGov and ICM with the Lib Dems becalmed on 16-19%.
5. Rumblings will grow within the Lib Dem ranks about Campbell’s leadership and Kennedy will start to think it is his time to return as leader. These tensions will dilute the Lib Dem message and spur defections when Campbell refuses to make way.
6. Local elections - the Conservatives will make big gains both this May and next May with the Lib Dems failing to deliver the expected goods. Labour will be all but wiped out as a party of local govt in the South of England outside of London and they will be greatly diminished in the Midlands. The Conservatives will make some limited progress in terms of seats in the Welsh Assembly and will hold their current total in Scotland’s Parliament. The PR system in Scotlands local elections will deliver a Conservative presence for the first time in areas where we had been non existant.
So come the General Election (assuming 2009/10) the Conservatives will win a small majority of 10-20 seats by taking from both Labour and the Lib Dems. If Brown goes early this Autumn (unlikely) or next summer, the chances of a Hung Parliament IMHO are much more likely.
Now I will stand back and read with interest the comments on my assessment! hehehe
by Rik W February 13th, 2007 at 11:45 am
It seems more UKIP supporters appear in the comments section of the Telegraph website than will admit to voting for that party in opinion polls. Most odd.
71 LOL tjm!
Well, that’s a relief!
Your remedy? Post more often!
67 - you can! Just read Prof. King in the Telegraph!
“David Cameron’s Conservatives now sit on just 90% of the vote having completely failed to wipe out other parties. Mr Cameron now faces an uphill struggle to unite his party and offer a coherent platform for winning over the 3% of LibDems. This poll, which shows a 46% swing in one month, is still considered by most to be below what is expected of the Tory Leader”. etc etc.
49. Although we’re probably at least two years away from a GE, this is the exact line I expect Cameron to take - I think he’ll drop “Liberal Conservative” into every public appearance and call for Lib Dems to join Tories to get Labour out. Whether he’ll be successful depends on his policies, I suppose. The thing is that he’ll come across incredibly refreshing in a GE campaign against old Clunking Fist. All this said, however, we’ve got to remember that sweet smiles and populism alone won’t win him power - just look at Royale.
I still predict Tories as the largest party in a hung parliament, to form a minority government and to get a majority in the subsequent election.
Meanwhile, in the French Presidential market, Royal’s price continues to drift alarmingly. Que’est-ce qu’il passe, mes amis?
Would it be out of the question for the Guardian to back the Tories and / or Lib Dems come next GE?
The Guardian has a rich liberal tradition that is hardly best served by our current regime.
Rik W -
Prediction 1 - totally agree.
Prediction 2 - agree to an extent. I think if we lose some right-wing MPs they’ll be the sort on the verge of standing down already. It’ll give Cameron and the electorate a chance to replace them! I think we may not even get that because most MPs realise the way the wind is blowing.
Prediction 3 - sorry, I don’t think this is going to happen. Most LibDems are happy and believe they can hold their seats. If they were ambitious they wouldn’t have joined the “real opposition” in the first place! I just can’t see it although I am prepared to eat my hat!
Prediction 4 - spot on.
Prediction 5 - agreed. Apart from ultra-ultra-LibDem-loyalists everyone else agrees Campbell isn’t doing well. But I’d be surprised if the anti-Sir-Ming movement swings behind Kennedy. It’ll be one of the young turks, probably aided and abetted by Sarah Teather.
Prediction 6 - Scotland and Wales we’ll move slowly forward. Big jump for Cameron in the English locals. LibDems evens or even down slightly, Labour crushed from all sides.
So … almost party unity there!
75 Rik
on 5 Lib Dems likely to go backward in locals
6 As a result leadership election could occur in Summer
rogerh
79. I can see that. You think at 49 that’s the line the Lib Dems will take along with scrap ID cards naturally.
81. I don’t know if the Guardian will back the Tories, but I do think it’ll back “Anyone But Labour,” perhaps.
The Murdoch Press will back whoever looks like the winner.
78 Hahahahaha!
Totally O/T but can anybody tell me how to make a page in Internet Explorer into my home page. I have no idea how to do it. Many thanks for help for an old fuddy-duddy!
82 - of course it is all a matter of opinion. Things can change and I could be wrong on some or all of these but at least I have put my predictions on the line to be judged by all, unlike some I could mention! lol
I usually dont “call” GEs until about 6 months before the likely date. To date I have 4 out of the last 6 spot on, with 1997 and 2001 being the ones I got badly wrong!
Rik W, personally, I think 40% is as good as it gets for us (though there may be an outlier or two). The vote for “Others” is now just too big IMO, to go higher than that on a sustained basis, unless Labour really plunge far below 30%.
I also expect to see very big gains in May’s locals. I would not expect to see defections from the Lib Dems. Why should they defect when there is so little common ground between the two parties?
84. I cannot see the Lib Dems calling for Tories to vote tactically to get Labour out in this current climate. Largely because they’ve got the disillusioned Labour voters to convert in the winnable Labour seats anyway. They don’t really need Tory help.
No, I still think the Lib Dems will campaign on a very independent-minded platform and dissociate themselves from the big two. They will, however, be secretly looking to who they might be able to squeeze a PR deal out of (but I doubt they’ll get it).
81 I suppose you take your support where you can find it, but can you really imagine Madeline Bunting, Polly Toynbee, Gary Yonge, Roy Fattersley et al, advocating a Tory vote?
86. Commentator, maybe this page is helpful
http://www.microsoft.com/windows/ie/ie6/using/howto/customizing/prsonalizehmpg.mspx
88 - Sean Fear - I think 42-43 is about the ceiling at the mo. We arent there yet but will be soon IMHO. Poll trends rarely move in a straight line, they fluctuate, but I think we are seeing a gradual shift to the Tories and away from Labour and Lib Dems.
There will no doubt be worse polls for us again but I am comfortable with where we are (not just in this poll) generally!
74 Punter. Watford is a goner for Labour. The Lib Dems have sewn up the council (and remain popular) the Mayoralty and the seat has been worked almost since the last GE.
81 SBS. IMO yes. Only 20% of Gruntfutock readers vote Tory. Probably they’ll recommend a grudging Labour endorsement with Lib Dem backing in target areas.
54 Punter have tried to respond twice but post has been spam blocked - no idea why . Mike can you try and rescue one of them please . The M of E for a sample of 1,000 is 3% provided the response rate is 100% ie there are no don’t knows or won’t votes . For a sample size of 2,000 the M of E comes down to around 2% . Tried to link but that did not work .
Andrea, mille grazie! Have changed it.
89. Of course they won’t do so “nationally” but in a seat like City Durham it would be a near certainty, or you think not. Besides there will still be many disillusioned Labour voters even in seats like that who might otherwise go straight to Cameron in the right conditions.
88. ‘Why should they defect when there is so little common ground between the two parties’
The same reason Woodward did. Amazing how elastic ones principles can be when your career is at stake.
96. “Besides there will still be many disillusioned Labour voters even in seats like that who might otherwise go straight to Cameron in the right conditions. ”
That’s what happened in 1997 in quite a good number of seats with voters switching from Con to third placed Labour making the Tory MP surive against the LD challenger.
95. It was a pleasure, Commentator
99 Andrea. If you don’t stop pleasuring “Commentator” your left wing credentials will be compromised !!
88. “Others” poll well whenever there is a realistic “other” (Martin Bell, Richard Taylor, even, though I loathe him, George Galloway), and are likely to do well here in Bedfordshire with our Save Bedford Hospital party.
As the NHS implodes there will be other credible and well organized “local NHS” campaigners (who have not yet formally launched). Am already in contact with more than one. (Don’t forget how such a campaigner won in the 2003 Scottish elections as well
This is all probably a manifestation of the deep public disillusion with professional politicians. Last week’s travel expenses story just confirms people’s prejudices. I suspect that “others” have not yet peaked.
100. Jack, I’m incorruptible depending on the offer
This poll is not even mentioned on LabourHome.
98. I expect Brown becoming PM should really boost Cameron’s Liberal Conservative strategy. Soft liberals don’t mind Blair but the very Labour-ness of Brown will concentrate their minds on voting for a party that can form a government. While Ming is leader this won’t help!
Saying that Cameron can as you say easily take votes directly from Labour because as a leader he is much neaer to Blair in terms of his personal profile than Brown.
o/t Don’t really like doing this but why not pop over to Webcameron and vote for my post “STD’s, Teen Pregnancy, and Drinking” on Ask David. It’s been dominated by conspiracy oddballs recently so we could do with some other input!
88 & 92.
I understand the logic that says that 42-ish the ceiling for us when “others” are high and until/unless Labour or Lib Dems implode.
However, assuming that as an election approches, the “others” in part return to more mainstream parties, is there a precedent for how they may split?
Is it generally along left/right/nationalist/unionist lines, or will the section of “others” that are essentially protest votes swing to the main opposition party at the time?
I know what I’d like to think, but wonder if there is any histroical poll evidence…
Evening.
Interesting learning curve this part of the electoral cycle. Clearly, the Tories are doing well and are winning the conversation with the electorate.
That said, I am not sure that Labour are really trying at the moment. A couple of Blair Gems last week on Nuclear power and gun crime show he’s beyond having lost it. He doesn’t seem to give a damn who he pisses off now.
Will be interesting to see what happens when Labour has a leader who actually wants to win an election. Also will be interesting to see what happens when the public consider George Osbourne’s ability to run the economy. Huge potential there I would say for a Labour party trying to win.
I doubt this poll reflects a considered view of a possible tory adminsitration. So huge pinch of salt…
It all feels like the star wars prequels… Slightly shit compared to the 1992-1997 original, with the bad guys winning in the end. I hope Obi-wan is hiding the Milliband twins.
98. Which is why I don’t think the Lib Dems will make the same mistake v Labour in seats like City Durham. They will know what can happen if their message not attuned properly. BTW interesting thread on Locals thread re WA if it is of interest.
93. Yes I know it is. I alsoi know the Lib Dems must be favourites. I just think you can’t be so swift to write off the Tories in Watford for reason 98 mentions, at least in seats like that.
88 - it is an interesting question as to whether modern polling methods are contributing to higher others scores compared to the past. It has always been my argument that we should focus on percentage of the “non-others” vote when assessing the true state of the parties viz a general election, rather than percentage of the whole vote.
So yes, high others scores make it unlikely that the Conservatives can get much above 40, but then high others scores mean they don’t need to.
94. Have you been using the word banned in the Labour manifesto since 1992 again.
75 - Rik, please tell me what it will take for you to STOP banging on about Lib Dem defections. Just because you jumped ship once (or more) does not mean that everyone else’s political heads are so easily turned by a man who underneath the spin is a Tory, not a Liberal no matter how you dress it (or him up)
I agree Ming will have to go but again you are looking up your ass and seeing a Kennedy comeback, why? Clegg, Huhne, Laws, Featherstone……no one will go back to Kennedy and drrp down you know it.
On the polls yes maybe you will go over 40% but you also drop well under, nothing special there.
Local elections, well my dead cat could call that one so again nothing special or surprising
As for Cameron phase 2, what was phase 1?? If it was bullshit your way to the part leadership, be a smarmy git, become a younger chubbier Blair and lie about your drug use (you just know more of this story will leak out) then I say phase 1 has done the job…..of turning more people than ever off politics altogether.
By Big Mak, February 19th 2007, 10.35pm
106 - Jonathan - Obi-wan is David Davis, Cameron is Luke Skywalker. It is Labour that are on the dark side with Gordon Brown as Senator Palpatine becoming Emperor!!!
Well we really are moving into uncharted waters when Mike starts using the words “astro turfers”!
We are in an unfortunate limbo at the moment and the press are bored stiff with Blair and want him out now are embracing Cameron with a lust that would make a bonobo blush.
But the press like a contest. Brown is the great unknown and though we are all projecting what we expect him to be like none of us really knows. But one thing is certain. If he is effective and innovative he’ll blow Cameron away. If he is just more of the same then by default 2009 might be a contest. Cameron is different from the risible bunch of Tories that preceded him but he’s still a Tory and I’m less convinced than some that he’ll end up a star.
110 - When has Cameron ever lied about his drug use? He just hasn’t commented, which isn’t the same thing.
BBC News 24 has shown the front page of The Guardian.
The whole top half of the front page is 2 pictures - Gordon Brown and David Cameron with the numbers 29% and 42% next to the relevant picture.
Not looking too good for Brown!
110 - Big Mak what a nasty person you must be!
I call it as I see it. Will you put your predictions where your abuse is?
In your dreams. We’re in depressing prequel rehash territory. Cameron the “heir to Blair” currently taking the lead in attack of the clones. :’-(
From the Guardian article:
“But he cannot break with significant policies he endorsed as chancellor, such as the Iraq war. The risk is that expectations of a dramatic plan for his first 100 days are running well ahead of what it is actually possible to offer.”
Shall we start a book on what policies he will try to drop? I’ll have 20 quid he tries to soften/emasculate the arch-Blairite 18-week treatment target for the NHS. Which is no doubt why Blair was re-announcing it yet again today, in an attempt to shore it up.
con majority 140
People really are out to get Brown at the moment. All the stops are being pulled behind the scenes. A doubt here a rumour there. It awesome to see how Britain is really governed.
“They” just don’t think Brown is “sound”. QED vote Brown.
112 - If Brown is a great unknown, then where have we all been for 10 years? Not on Planet Woger for a start. I doubt if the rest of us could afford one of thelegenadry “straw in the wind lunches”
113 - alex, when someone tells you “no comment” what does that mean, don’t kid yourself you know exactly what “no comment” means when anyone utters it, it means yes I bloody did it but can’t admit it to you becuase it would finish me.
115 Rik, that nasty that I may join your lot….Not!
As for predictions, lets just say with Ming we might go back to 45-50 seats. If Clegg or one of the others we will hold if not pick up a few. Your problem is not just us but will Labour voters in the north really stick an X by a Tory name when it comes to it, i think no.
When it come to policy and crunch time for your darling Cameron is one things could start to go wrong. Its easy saying nothing and rising the wave of Labour hate, but once you make some policy comitments thats when you will be tested and I think you will come up well short.
110 - actually Rik, a classic bitter and twisted LD activist, in a party heading for the same place at the next election where they have been for the last 89 years - third.
They all knew Keenedy was a total p*** artist, just as they knew that under Thorpe you couldnt take a dog on Exmoor. Yet it is all concealed in that sanctimonious bombast that Steel and Ashdown made into an art form adn is repeated here by the LD dreamers.
Forget them and let them muse on who will next take them to continuing third place.
122 God 1 good opinion poll and the bitter and twisted Tories come out to rant and gloat .
112. Re. Astroturfers, Mike presumably knows what he is talking about - unlike some other posters on this site.
You know when Bik Mak periodically graces us with his presence, I almost miss ColinW. At least that kind, sweet and gentle LibDem is literate.
What on Earth are the Guardian up to with this incessant undermining of Brown? If this is a pro-Miliband campaign, it’s incredibly indulgent. Cameron is the winner from this.
This has been one of DC’s best weeks.
121 “no comment” - so, exactly which part of “no comment” is “a lie about drug abuse” then? I think you may be guilty of wishing to see something hat isn’t there… bit like those looking for the Brown bounce.
Re 16, Nick Palmer, Many thanks. Gloat
128 Benedict - yes I thought it was decent of him also. Maybe you should write a blog article about it? You do have a blog don’t you?
Per BBC correspondent on Newsnight - Royal did not perform well on tonight’s big TV show. It will take a “miracle” for her to win.
Odds in freefall on Betfair - last price matched 3.7 (ie 2.7-1).
115. Yeth, what a nathty nathty man…..ickle diddums fwightened by the bad man was oo?
Re 20 Mathew Partridge, “I think this poll is an outlier - indeed it raises serious doubts about ICM’s accuracy given that better polling companies are putting the Conservative lead lower (although I still think that even these polling companies have overestimate the Tory position). I also think that when Miliband, Hutton or Reid become PM Labour will go back into the lead.”
ROFLMAO and indeed splitting my sides!
So it isn’t going to be Brown then?
Not only that but ALL the polls are overstating the Conservatives? When they have a record of doing the reverse? Oh dear Matthew.
O/T but liked the choice of pics of Dave and Gordon Mike selected to head this post - Cameron, young. vigorous with union jack in background; Brown, sweaty, overweight, showing his age.
126. On dear, the Guardian not listening to ‘his master’s voice’? A paper not giving automatic support to a political party? Whatever next?
131. Now Colin I’ve told you not to speak like that in front of grown ups - people will think you’re not all there lad.
133.”Cameron, young. vigorous ”
yes, one of the few pics where he looks pretty good
Re 24, Thanks Max.
“Yeth, what a nathty nathty man…..ickle diddums fwightened by the bad man was oo? ”
translation required, please.
Some words seem to have more consonants than Welsh names!
122 - IDS, Hague, Howard….(Cameron)??,what great men one and all, such winners. Yes second feels so much better than third but I fear still not winners.
125 - Prune I suggest you take your shrivelled self to one side, kind & gentle I am not, you’d love that but if I upset you I do apologise dear boy.
127 - Why would someone ever say “no comment”? Do you ever say it, its Yes or No; no comment is only used by the political class to his guilt. Not sure if you guys are just being typical Tories or a truly being a bunch of arses tonight…or is that not the same thing?
Miliband in to 17/1 with Betfair and GB out to 1.22.
re 138 Andrea but many consonants in Welsh such as ch, rh, ll, ng, ff, dd amongst others are single letters
Thank goodness for the presence of Andrea, Jack W, Jonathan and Big Mak! (and a few others, but not many, who help to keep some kind of balance).
This site seems to have been taken over by raving Tories. They seem to think they are the only people who exist here (possibly true in practice, though not in theory): “we”, “encouraging” etc etc….
I am not part of your “we”, and I do not find this poll “encouraging”.
It is rather disappointing.
So let’s take as an example comment no 73…
“Obviously good news, and encouraging in the run up to May 3rd.”
What Sean Fear means is that it is good news for the Tories and encouraging for the Tories, but it is not good news for anti-Tories (the vast majority of the population) and not particularly encouraging for non-Tories.
So it is NOT good news for everybody - only for the rich, the selfish, the privileged, the privately educated etc etc.
I think it would be helpful if our Tory friends remembered they were in a public place on this site, and not in a private Tory club. Is this how the members of the Bullingdon Club talk?
142 - Oh Tressage close the coffin lid! You do a good impression of a raving Lib Dem!!
And this - “So it is NOT good news for everybody - only for the rich, the selfish, the privileged, the privately educated etc etc.” - is so ridiculous as to be laughable! I am certainly not rich, selfish, privileged or privately educated.
The effect of this poll is simple. Brown is finished as leader of the Labour Party. He either wins it as a lame duck, or loses it to someone else. The latter is looking more likely than at any time in the last 12 months.
Cameron portraying himself as less left-wing than before appears to have had a dramatic impact in the polls.
144 Another hyper exaggeration of what is just one poll with an above average Conservative figure .
Re 78, Cllr Antony Little, Got a link for that Anthony King laugh a minute article?
139 - “Not sure if you guys are just being typical Tories or a truly being a bunch of arses tonight…or is that not the same thing?”
I think we’re leaving that accolade to you, Big Mak, you seem to have occupied the territory so effectively.
What irks me is that I don’t really think you are stupid enough to post at 110 that Cameron has “lie[d] about [his] drug use” and expect not to have to evidence it. When challenged you admit he has only made “no comment”, but seem to equate the two.
As you seem to need nursery-level explanations, let’s make it clear for you: If you say you didn’t do something (like poke little Tommy in the eye when Mummy wasn’t looking) but you really did, then grown-ups call that a ‘lie’. If you don’t answer the question, then you haven’t lied, but Mummy may draw her own inferences from that. When you get to big school the teachers may tell you about something called evidence, burden of proof, the concept of innocence until proven guilty, or they may even tell you about something called the 5th Amendment which is in a big country across the sea called America.
Does that make it clear? Or perhaps you’d like another go at explaining how “no comment” is a “lie about drug abuse”. If so, then I’m sure all the grown-ups here whould like to hear your evidence.
143 - Rik, you may not be any of those but you are a classic “New Tory” flip-flopper, folowing whoever leads the party like a star eyed school girl. Power is all you want and you don’t care about what or who you have to step on to get it….lucky escape for the people of Sutton.
144 - Less “leftwing”???? Its bullshit Will, my God you huys DO actually belive that Cameron means all the stuff he spouts, oh dear oh dear.
I would beg to differ with a commentator above. In the past this site seems to have been hijacked by left-wing nutcases, who have no interest in discussing political matters objectively or with balance. All they ever seem to do is peddle their wierd hate-rants. Those they describe as ‘right-wing’ or ‘tories’ are simply those that are seeking to be objective.
130. Really? Oh dear. One gets the feeling Royal’s campaign might forever go down in history as one of those classic guidelines on “How Not To Win An Election.”
There’s still a long while to go before the first round, I suppose. Bu