Great polling moments - January 13 1995
February 20th, 2007
On a day like today it is perhaps worth recalling one of the worst polls ever for the Tories - this the January 1995 survey for the Daily Telegraph by Gallup. This poll did not use past vote weighting to ensure a politically balanced sample.
Just four days after the fieldwork for Gallup was completed ICM began their January 1995 poll for the Guardian. When the past vote weighting adjustments were made this came up with CON 30: LAB 48: LD 18. - quite a difference and not that far off from the General Election result two and a half years later. This had CON 31: LAB 44: LD 17.
Gallup no longer carries out UK political surveys.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
Yes, you can see why Gallop no longer do polls can’t you
That would have been Tory wipe out, never mind meltdown!
And yet it’s polls such as these which many people use as comparisons for “where the Tories need to be”.
How many seats would labour have got with those numbers on election day? 600? The tories might have survived in Maidenhead and Huntington, but nowhere else I guess.
You can only wonder what someone like Blair would have done with that sort of power.
My personal favourite “Great Polling Moment” was during the Brecon & Radnor By Election in 1985. Cap’n Bob Maxwell was trying his hardest to win it for Labour, and the full weight of the Daily Mirror (which he owned) was brought to bear. Free copies were given away in the Constituency on Polling Day – a marketing campaign for the newspaper, you understand, nothing so sordid as a breach of election expenses!
The front page had details of an exclusive Mori Poll which had been carried out for them in the constituency. I think it also had some analysis from Bob Worcester on the inside pages as well. Needless to say, it forecast a Labour triumph, which did not happen. Indeed, they came in third.
At the time, the wrong forecast was explained with reference to poor sampling (although some cynics suggested that the figures had been made to fit the desired outcome.) The constituency had two towns (Brecon and Radnor) thirteen villages and numerous hamlets. It seems that Mori had done face-to-face surveys in the towns and the more easily accessible villages, but not in the rural areas….and the Liberal candidate was a farmer, who squeaked home by 464(?) votes.
Mori were always treated with some suspicion after that, but I do not know if the reason given was the correct one or not.
According to Baxter a clean sweep!
According to Anthony Wells, we get Labour 599, Lib Dem 21, Conservative 9, Others 21 on those figures.
6 LOL
I’d like to see you spin that, Sean!
Enjoyed your performance on Doughty Street the other day. Don’t do it too often though. We need you on here.
All that goodwill and optimism for NuLabour destroyed because of Tony Blair’s vanity.
Funny, but I was just recalling another polling moment. I was recalling when I left work one day and turned the car radio on to the sensational news that Mike Potter for the SDP almost took Richmond, just beaten by a certain William Hague.
How things could have been different if the SDP had won that seat! Possibly the SDP would be around today and William Hague would not have been Tory leader.
I think the implication of Mike’s piece is that a Gallup style poll today could have Labour below 20%.
It’s not looking good for them.
6, 7. Perhaps the Tories should try importing Kim Campbell to make it possible.
“6 LOL I’d like to see you spin that, Sean!”
How about, “it’s not been the kind of result we’d want, but the only way is up from now on”? I’m glad you liked Doughty Street.
11 - I like *you*, Sean. Not so sure about the others. One didn’t even have a tie on!
11 - 13 years later the Conservatives recovered and then formed the minority Canadian Government - quite possibly situation in 2010 here. Reading the wikipedia entry on Campbell has warnings for Gordon:
“Mulroney left office as one of the most ..unpopular prime ministers since opinion polling began ..He considerably hampered his own party’s campaign effort by staging a very lavish international farewell tour at taxpayer expense”
“She was frequently greeted by the activist chant “Kim, Kim, you’re just like him.”
“She appeared to have troubles relating to “regular” Canadians, and many felt that she had an overly condescending and pretentious tone”
Is it true that during the very early days of the SDP, htere was an opinion poll that put them at over 50%? If so, does anyone know who did it?
re 14. Great Polling Moments will be an occasional series on PBC and certainly that is one of the polls that will be featured
9 I don’t think that is the implication at all . The effect of the various corrective weighting adjustments made these days appears to be to reduce the Labour % therefore a Gallup type poll now may well be showing Labour in the lead .
16. Do we have any data on this? I know that past vote weightings have tended to reduce the Labour percentage because more people ‘remember’ voting for the winner than actually did so. I suspect that it’s becoming harder to find people who ‘remember’ voting Labour.
I remember the polls 0f 18% for the tories well! I was a member of the young tories at university and with the new Blair coming along even wondered about voting Labour! The reason was 4 terms is too long for any party- even the one you support!
This is why i wonder about some of the postings here - I suppose we all play devils advocate and their is a bit of winding up! But why would such partisan figures wish to see the Labour party out for a geration. Which is what will happen if they get a 4th term. Hisory has a funny way of repeating! Rather a defeat, than a rout! When the election came round in 97 i voted tory anyway, it made no difference nationally or locally!!! Governments always need oppositions to keep them on their toes. I always think 1997 needed to happen but wonder wether it swung from chucking the tories out to creating an unstopable juganaut, that is only now been taken into check?
o/t Another interesting point is the Blair vote, some say it is 3 %, some say it is a little more. This 3% has worked very well for Labour has it is in all the right places. People are right 1 swallow does not make a summer but these numbers 31 for Labour keep popping up. The tories at 40 is within the margin of erro so obviously you are talking about 5 - 9 point lead. The hypothicated question is interesting about Brown but that is all it is.
A big event will cause another change in the polls as previously mentioned before so whilst i would like a change to the tories. I am not getting myself worked up.
Another interesting point i wonder if anyone has noticed. Is their a ripple effect from leaders seats to near by ones. Obviously with Brown and Ming “together” in neighbouring constitiencies this could be interesting(Unlike Blair and Hague). Ming has a more marginal seat. Brown is not popular in England but in Scotland? Could he decapitate ming by accident?
Another interesting pointis any marginal seats near Cameron’s witney, i wonder if that will have a ripple. Leaders seats always tend to get good votes compared to the rest of their party!
LOL Yes Baxter predicts 626 Lab, 0 Con, 0 LD! 5 Nationalists and NI parties remain…
1. Baxter leaves the UUP as the Official Opposition! (In 1997; the DUP today.) Plaid Cymru actually gains a seat with those results today (Ceredigion) while the SNP holds on to two seats.
19. The government benches will explode!
OT. New supporters declared by Harriet Harman:
Margaret Moran MP, Angela Smith MP (the Basildon one) and Howard Stoate MP. Then Mary Honeyball MEP, Peter Skinner MEP, a couple of Welsh AMs, some Baronesses and Barbara Roche.
19 - How long would it have been before Labour splintered into opposing factions - with Blairites, the usual suspects, Brownites and others forming the opposition? Would Blair have got Iraq through a House with 626 Labour MPS?
18. ‘Another interesting point i wonder if anyone has noticed. Is their a ripple effect from leaders seats to near by ones. Obviously with Brown and Ming “together” in neighbouring constitiencies this could be interesting(Unlike Blair and Hague). Ming has a more marginal seat. Brown is not popular in England but in Scotland? Could he decapitate ming by accident?’
None whatsoever; the seats are far too different from each other. Brown’s seat is massively Labour, and was traditionally a coal-mining area. Campbell’s seat - where his majority is into five figures, by the way; it’s not remotely marginal - is strongly Lib Dem, and is an agrarian/fishing seat with a university in it. Labour come a distant third there behind the Tories. I’d say any ripple effects there would cancel each other out.
What a nightmare those days were for Tory candidates!
Every by-election was a sure fire loser (what ever happened to the sacrificial lambs at Newbury, Christchurch etc?).
Every weekend from ‘93 onwards the Sunday Papers would bring tales of further scandals and indiscretions by Conservative MPs whilst the Major Government floundered from vote to vote.
Finally in 1997 the train smashed into the buffers….
Were you one of the casualties, Nicholas Bennett?
26 - If it’s the same person, then no, he got ousted in 1992.
27. but I think he lost Reading West to Martin Salter in 1997 GE.
4. Thanks for that Augustus…another great day for ‘honest’ Bob Worcester, that one.
I was indeed!
O/T: asked Caroline Flint if she’s standing for deputy leader. She says “Definitely not!”
31. Booo - she’s better looking than Peter Hain…
25. Yes, you’re right - they’ve not been seen since according to a quick search:
Robert Hayward - Christchurch. Previously MP for Kingswood. Not contested an election since.
Julian Davidson - Newbury. Wikipedia doesn’t even have an entry for him.
Notes: Alan Sked stood in both elections and finished fourth in each, polling 1.6% in Christchurch and 1.0% in Newbury for the Anti-Federalist League, who would go on to become UKIP.
Labour lost their deposit in both.
There were 19 candidates at Newbury - the highest number ever at a UK parliamentary election.
OT: Just wondering what people were thinking regarding the other Guardian story today: Cameron sending his child to a Christian school. Could this have any political impact?
Mark Senior can you re-post whatever it was you trying to post las night.
34 Most likely approval that he sends his children to state schools, and annoyance with Labour for trying to portray him as an elitist snob.
33. The Labour candidate in Christchuch now usually stands in Winchester locals, polling less than 100 votes in Wonston and Micheldever ward (68 votes in 2003, 89 in 2004 adn 77 in 2006)
34. A C of E primary school is not exactly a madrassa!
31 - Dammit! Will there be no lookers in the Labour Deputy Leadership contest? Excepting the perfectly tanned Peter Hain, of course.
38. True enough, but I’m under the impression that most people oppose the state funding religious schools. I accept its not very high up people’s agendas though.
Talking of great opinion polls, there was one in the Daily Record in July or August 1998 which had the Scottish Liberal Democrats at 2% ! They recovered to poll 13% in the first Holyrood Elections in May 1999.
Re 40, Tjm, “True enough, but I’m under the impression that most people oppose the state funding religious schools.”
Where did you get that from?
41. Alan J
Ta for that! Ahhh… we can but hope…
43. Trivia but who wrote “Flower of Scotland.”
42.
http://education.guardian.co.uk/schools/story/0,,592109,00.html
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/4175834.stm
44 The Corries? think its quite a recent anthem.
Yep, its the Corries, a Scottish folk group.
Flower of Scotland (Flùir na h-Alba in Gaelic) is an unofficial national anthem of Scotland, a role for which it competes against the older Scotland the Brave. In common with England among the Home Nations, Scotland has no official national anthem. Flower of Scotland was written by Roy Williamson of the folk group The Corries in 1966. The song refers to the victory of the Scots, led by King Robert the Bruce over the English King Edward II, at the Battle of Bannockburn in 1314. Wikipedia http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Flower_of_Scotland
48 Mike S. A honorary Scot is born !!
I always thought it was the Krankies…
35 Hi Punter My spammmed post was in relation to M of E . ICM poll is 1,000 but M of E of 3% only applies if the full 1,000 respond . Taking out Won’t Votes and Don’t Knows will increase the M of E to around 3.2 % and the fact that ICM weight according to likelihood to vote will increase it further . A full 2,000 people survey will have a M of E of around 2.25% and a German type survey of 4,000 to around 1.5% so size does matter .
For a simple question/answer guide go to the britishpollingcouncil website and read A journalist’s guide to opinion polls .
On another topic I believe that LibDems are concentrating on Newport East rather than West in the Welsh Assembly Elections
Stuart, what will you do if an SNP/Lib Dem co-alition is your only opportunity of power.
Surely you would be open to negotiation, some give and take on both sides and not cut off your nose to spite your face etc. But possibly you would. Could you advise.
41 - it was a System 3 poll from Jan 1979:
then
Lab 45 Tories 31 SNP 20 Lib 2 SLP 2
48. Mike, Flower of Scotland is much more popular these days than Scotland the Brave, and the tartan army seems to prefer it.
Another popular anthem back in the 80’s was sung by Runrig with a certain Scottish MP on keyboards, brings back memories looking at this.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=axRQBQVPjas
51. Interesting I repaste my post below from yesterday see what you thought on other points.
Re Newport East. Very wise. The Tories are going hard for Newport West, and you going for it would simply have ensured Labour keeping both Newport seats on a split vote. You made massive progress in Newport East at the last GE, so from Lib Dem point of view no time to let the momentum slip. Is your candidate the same excellent GE one.
23. That is precisely what they are thinking. I think they are braced on a particularly bad night v con for up to twenty net losses. The rest are so well entrenched even a relative Tory wave would be hard pressed to remove more than one or two. They are I believe also thinking that up to then Labour seats are eminently takeable as of now, and not assuming any Labour meltdown to put more in the frame. So could fifity been seen a probable floor, forty at the maximum. There is a further factor call it “revenge.” Labur supporters wanted revenge against the Tories after so long out and so in many hopeless Labour seats went Liberal Democrat. They believe and I think with some justification they can go to Tory voters in places like City Durham and just as they once did for Labour supporters say look use us to really give the Government a kicking. Would have thought it would feature in the Liberal Democrat playbook.
by Punter February 19th, 2007 at 9:10 pm
Rob Hayward is alive, well, campaigning, and sadly failed to be elected to Southwark Council last year by the voters of Camberwell Green ward. He also follows PBC
April 13th this year will be the 40th anniversary of the GLC/County Council landslide which so damaged Harold Wilson’s government.
There are still quite a few people who remember that. In Lambeth the top Conservative candidate won 45,371 votes.
Just before election day polls were showing the parties fairly equal. About a week before the election, The Evening News produced a London Poll showing a Conservative lead therefore predicting a victory. No one could forsee that Labour would hold just 18 seats on the Council.
It is said that a Conservative paper candidate arrived at work on Friday 14th April, his boss called him in and was looking at the paper. He asked if he were the same person who had been elected the night before,on confirmation, he sacked him! I am certain Nick bennett can confirm the identity of the unfortunate one.
Sigh.. I would pick the day the Tories get a record lead to
a) write a long, dull blog post on why Cameron is bound to fail in the end..
b) be out of the office for the day!
I treat the 42-29 number as about as reliable as Gillian McKeiths academic qualifications- it’s all about those who quite reasonably don’t know how they’d vote under a Brown lead labour party, because.. uhh there isn’t one.
The 40-31 number however is another reasonably good poll for the Tories.
57. Whilst i agree the hypothetical poll is not worth candyfloss, it is flipant to be so dismissive. It is not a single swallow. I think it is at least the 3rd time this has come up as a hypothetical result.
What it indicates is that Mr Brown will be as popular to the voter as someone who tramples dog shit into their living room!!! Brown has blown it before he has got it! As you know, once the public has made their mind up, particularly in a negative direction. There is no turning back! Everything that goes wrong and it will, gets fed back and amplyfies> Everything that goes right and it will, is disregarded. It is not fair but that is the way the political tide flows!
Just look at the “Tories” and the feedback they developed! You might rightly point to some big wrongs in their time in power but the present government is not blameless either. This is of course why all governments loose in the end, even dictorship’s (Which Blair is not and neither was Thatcher!)and why the pendulum needs to swing back and forth!
I remember the GLC election of ‘67, although I can’t answer Peter Gold’s question as to the poor unfortunate who, having won a GLC seat, got the sack.
My mother stood and was defeated as a Liberal for the Southwark Borough seat. In those days the GLC seats were on the basis of the London Boroughs and so Southwark had four candidates from each Party. Jeffrey Gordon, one of the Conservatives still practices as a solicitor in Battersea and regularly appears before me.
At the count, held at Peckham School for Girls we Young Conservatives sang “We all live in a Tory GLC’ to the tune of the Beetles’ ‘Yellow Submarine’.
Nick - Your mother got 3,315 votes.
59. Yes the elections have been a bit dull for about 10 years. No major swings either way. It must be about time for another one soon! They are exiting even if you are on the losing side, which i hope is Labour the next time!
That 1967 was a classic, some historians say Heath would have been ousted if that had not happened? Don’t know about that though!
56. Peter Golds, was the candidate John Major ?
62. no!
49 Mike S. A honorary Scot is born !! Is a Scot Born, or is it an acquired accent?
I’d love to see Sascha Cohen do a new character - a recent immigrant member of the SNP - trying to do a Scotch accent and complaining about English Devils in an thick foreign accent.
SNP types are ripe for mockery and would fall for it hook, line & sinker
Re: 59 - Nicholas, I believe you are now a Councillor for my old stomping ground of West Wickham where I stood as a Liberal candidate in 1986 (and got 35% against Councillors Blazey and Humphrys I might add).
My brother and his family still live over that way. The High Street has regrettably lost some of its character though my late Mum always hoped to see an M&S there before she died
58- I don’t agree with the idea that things don’t change. That thinking has been proved wrong again and again in politics.
Brown’s elevation, what he does with it and how he governs can make a huge difference for good or ill. Just look at the differnce John Major’s emolliant governance of the country made to Tory fortunes (or Alec Douglas-Home’s, or Harold Macmillan’s).
Or, if you want examples of politicians turning from “unpopularity” to winning- Clinton in 94, Thatcher in both ‘81 and ‘86/7.. and even Wilson taking Labour the drubbing they got in 68, to an election they were expected to win.
Still, the more Tories who think the next election is in the bag the better. I felt that way too.. in 1989.
53. No it was definitely 1998 - I wasn’t living in Scotland in 1979. I think the Scottish Liberals managed 9% in the 1979 general election (though didn’t field a full slate of candidates).
4. Labour was 2nd in Brecon & Radnor in 1985.
67 - I have given the System 3 figures from the Glasgow Herald Jan 79. The Record would have used a different polling organisation. The Libs were on 4% in Feb 6% in March, 11% in April then polled 9% in the GE.
66
I was convinced. along with everyone else Wilson would win in 1970.
Then I was walking past the local Conservative HQ, a very hot day, in the garden sitting on benches were rows and rows of Tory ladies, sitting on benches being briefed by the Tory candidate. The candidate was pointing with a billiard cue to a map, like a military briefing. I then realised that with organisation like that they were going to win. After Westland, Heseltine stomping out etc, I though thats Thatcher finished, eighteen months later she romped back in. Don’t leap to judgement to soon.
53 Sorry a visit to Specsavers is required my me. I had misread your post as 1978. Husband says i’m becoming senile
66. But at the time of your examples, Labour 1967 had been in office for three years, Clinton had been president for two years and Thatcher had been PM for two and six/seven years (I think that final example’s a bit out on the years - the election was in 1987). These were all newish leaders. By contrast, Labour will have been in power for a little over ten years when Brown takes over and twelve to thirteen by the next election.
In terms of movement in parties’ support, there are probably five trends going on simulateously (bear with me). In descending order of timespan, there’s the very long term structural changes - e.g. increase in the Liberals / Lib Dems vote 1950-83 and consolidation into seats 1983-2005, Tory decline in Scotland 1955-1997 etc. Secondly, there’s the underlying swing of the pendulum: peaks Labour 1945, Tory 1959, Labour 1966, Tory 1970, Labour 1974, Tory 1983, Labour 1997. We’re now on a Tory upswing / Labour decline. Thirdly, there’s the electoral cycle where the governing party declines at the start of the parliament and recovers towards the end. Fourthly, there’s the day to day events in the news; and finally (and not quite the same), there’s the random movement that the margin of error produces. (Note: This appears nice and mechanistic - in retrospect things usually do).
Brown’s problem is that Labour’s going the wrong way on the second cycle - no government once they start losing seats from one election to another has increased its representation again until it’s gone into opposition since modern parties formed in the late nineteenth century. This is not helped by other, even longer structural factors such as the decline of class awareness and ideological division which reinforced Tory and Labour support. Fewer core voters means fewer safe seats. I could go on, but I’ll leave it there before this becomes an essay.
70 Re the 1970 General election
I’d always heard it was Peter Bonetti’s fault
62 - It was a candidate from very close to your home! John Major was not in England early 1967 and could not have been a candidate.
74. Someone from Waltham Forest (Munday, Mynott, Webb)?
74. Sure it wasn’t an Archer fiction?
Stodge
Brian Humphrys is still a West Wickham Cllr. When you stood against him in 1986 that was his first election. The Lib Dem vote in 2006 was down to 15% and Lab to 11% admittedly a poor year for both.
BBC online reporting Blair to announce timetable for withdrawal from Iraq.
Could the dizzy heights of that poll be reached again?
Is there no end to Blair’s arrogance?
He must model himself on Stalin
A petition signed by 1.7 million people will not force Tony Blair to back down over plans to introduce road charging, Downing Street has said
Oh how I look forward to the next General Election
On the 24th January who was it who said that any definitive timetable for withdrawal would be “dangerous and irresponsible”?
Making it up as they go along?
80.”Making it up as they go along?” ukpaul, whatever decisions this government have taken over Iraq, it has been been for their own political agenda rather than the good of the Iraqi people or the British military.
Don’t expect that Blair and his press office consulted the generals on the best way to handle the withdrawal or the headlines!
Will Tony Blair announce this in the HoC or from the steps of No10 Downing street?
Looks like the HoC will as usual be briefed in detail after the media!
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/6380933.stm
Okay, how about “For us to set an arbitrary timetable….. would send the most disastrous signal to the people we are fighting in Iraq.
It is a policy which, whatever its superficial attractions may be, is actually deeply irresponsible.” ?
82 As with any other major policy decision, it will be leaked to a friendly media outlet. Or (since they’ve all left him) broadcast on LabourHome. But one thing is definite - it won’t be announced first in the HoC. I’m not sure Mr Blair knows where that is anymore…
18. Labour would indeed be better off losing the next election, if they lose narrowly they could be back in 4-9 years. If they win narrowly and then hang on until 2014 or whatever they will crash to a landslide defeat and be out for 15 years or more. Strange how cyclical British politics seems to have become , long Tory period followed by long Labour period. Not like in the 60s/70s with fairly rapid interchange of governments.
Looks like they’ll be home by Christmas… oh dear…
Did anyone see the football earlier, with the French trying to walk off after conceding a controversial goal? Nothing changes, running away still their speciality.
84.”It is a policy which, whatever its superficial attractions may be, is actually deeply irresponsible.”” I have concerns about how much involvement the commanders on the ground in Iraq have had in the withdrawal details and media operation before this announcement was leaked?
‘A Downing Street spokesman said: “It is right that the prime minister should update Parliament first.”‘
Good job I had the sick bucket to hand.
90.But not before every newspaper in the UK has it on their frontpage, I hope that the MP’s sitting in the chamber remember that comment when they read about before they troop into the HoC tomorrow!
Still never let it be said that Blair has ever shown any regard for the British soldiers and their families injured or killed, or parliament when he could not be bothered to even turn up for the last debate on Iraq. Watching the panarama programme last night I was struck by how little media coverage has been given/allowed or figures issued for the casualties in Iraq.
91. Looks like a desperate attempt to deflect from the negative poll headlines…Labour fear meltdown and it now appears they will try anything.
Nothing that wasn’t already expected there - it’s not a full withdrawal, just the next stage of the Basra handover.
93. Is that why it has been so blatantly waved in the face of the media this evening?
I see no-one’s taken up yet my offer of a wager (the price of ID card perhaps) that my first ID card (should I get one) is only going to cost me £30.
Just be aware that in order to get your next Passport, you will have to go to Basra.
New poll has Giuliani lead over McCain at 7% (had been 16%, 14% and 12% in 3 previous polls).
Link below gives useful summary:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/polls/
” I see no-one’s taken up yet my offer of a wager (the price of ID card perhaps) that my first ID card (should I get one) is only going to cost me £30. ”
…and another £270 in stealth tax to pay for the balance.
Matt.
72. David Herdson. Excellent post. Particularly the analysis of the second cycle/trend which instinctively I felt I knew but was unaware of the evidence.
Just reinforces my feeling that it’s “Time for a change”.