Has this been made to be as damaging as possible?
February 20th, 2007
Will Labour MPs respond to the Guardian’s call for Brown to be challenged?
This is the front page of the Guardian that will be screaming out across newstands throughout the UK this morning and it looks as though it has been designed deliberately to make it as damaging as possible for the Chancellor.
For as any newspaper man or woman will tell you it is what appears “above the fold” that matters - and with the numbers 29-42 splashed there against pictures of Brown and Cameron in the most sensational way nobody could accuse the Guardian of underplaying their ICM February poll this morning.
As I wrote when news of the survey came out last night - “A lot will depend on how the Guardian choose to report the poll tomorrow”. Well we have our answer.
For as happens so often with polls it is not the numbers themselves that matter but how the paper that commissioned the survey chooses to play it and what aspects it seeks to blow up.
In his report on the findings Julian Glover noted that “The result suggests that Labour hopes that recent stories about Mr Cameron’s past would drive voters away from the Conservatives have come to nothing…The poll was carried out last weekend, after press reports about the Tory leader’s use of cannabis at school and suggestions in some quarters that he had used hard drugs. The poll also follows the publication of a photograph of Mr Cameron dressed as a member of Oxford’s exclusive Bullingdon dining club, which prompted suggestions that the Tory leader, an old Etonian, would be seen as a elitist toff who could afford dress up in £1,000 jackets.”
In its main leader the paper notes bitingly: “It is usual for an outgoing party leader to be replaced by someone more popular than themselves, but in the case of the impending Labour succession things seem to be the other way around. Mention Mr Cameron’s name, and the Tory vote rises.”
My interpretation of the poll is that this is not so much about Brown but about Cameron. The more the Tory leader is in the news the higher his poll ratings go. Conversely the more that Brown figures on the news agenda the worse it seems to get. The Chancellor certainly did not help himself with last week’s World Cup bid announcement.
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Iain,
You have a typo in para 2 - it should read 29 - 42.
Sorry,
Should have said Mike!
Mike, Thanks for the article. As Ray has pointed out you rather than Iain have made a typo!
29-32 should of course have been 29-42.
You are right though it is the way the tale is told, and the Guardian appear not to be Brown friendly on this one. Shame really us Conservatives so want him to be leader!
The problem for Labour is this however. Gordon would do a sulk that would make Heath look magnanimous in defeat, and in such a way that would tear the party apart, and what is more, either events or the Brownite camp have sought to hobble every possible contender who could stand against him.
By the way, have I mentioned my bog that is here:
http://aconservatives.blogspot.com/
9. Benedict - you may wish to check for your typo in post 9!
2 to 8. globule
10 - Serves him right for his incessant flogging of it
Re 10, and 12, MikeL, and A H Matlock, oh lo I hang my head in shame. Oh but for a missing L. such a shame Firefox 2 can’t spot when you are making a pratt of yourself!
Still, I will have another go
Have I mention my BLOG which is here?
http://aconservatives.blogspot.com/
Just thought I’s ask
RE my 13, yes I forgot an ED. I tell you what I will leave my next blog post till the morning!
Sorry - I have deleted some repeated comments which puts the numbering of out synch. I have corrected the typo.
Hi guys
I’m not sad, honest, I’m only posting at this hour coz I is in Bangkok. Soon I have to go south, and write a piece about the lethal Muslim insurgency in Yala.
Gulp.
So given that this might be my last ever posting on pb.com, what a pleasant surprise to discover that it is on such a cheery note. 42-29! As has been pointed out, it seems Cameron’s reefer madness has done him no damage at all. Despite Snowflake’s insistence that her views - “string him up, the pot smoking toff” - were shared by the majority of the populace.
Parently not, Snowy. Heh.
The gaylording ponceyboots is doing it for the Tories. All power to him.
Ok I’m going to go for an ambitious school of thought, lets call it red flag theory
Firstly a few simple facts:
This Guardians front page has been designed to hit Brown hard, no doubt about that. Secondly that this is one of many attempts to get Brown by the press. I believe the reasoning is to create a contest, although the reason is unimportant, what matters is the press are giving him an increasingly hard time.
In the late 1990’s labour could do no wrong. This wasn’t because they never did anything wrong but because the press wanted to kick the Tories really badly as they had been the establishment for, well, nearly two decades. However, over time Labour became the establishment.
I think we can pin point 2003 and the Iraq war as a time when the press seriously started to move against Labour. However in the 2003 - 2005, it wasn’t especially Labour the vitriol was aimed at but in fact Blair. The chancellor on the other hand, from papers like the guardian, got constant glowing praise.
Labour wins a third term and the Tories are still on fewer seats than Foot’s Labour and they don’t even have a leader, at this point they look simply and utterly useless. Then comes along Mr Cameron. The press, which by this point is getting tired of the same old story, which they have been running since around 1993, that the Tories are a total sham change tune and start ramping Cameron for two reasons: One it’s plausible, no serious journalist could describe Howard or IDS as politicians that could re-write the rule book. Second: It makes politics seem more interesting, Tories are useless is really getting a bit stale.
Now at the same time as building Cameron up they are looking at what is going to happen in the Labour party’s future. The simple answer is Brown. Someone they have given glowing praise to for the last few years. Now this creates two problems, ramping Brown takes away from the hyperbole they are producing on Cameron and also means that there is unlikely to be a real contest for prime minister, something all editors must really dread. I mean is cruddas vs benn for deputy really gonna sell as many papers as an election that decides between two different people as our leader.
So they start kicking Brown, after all he has become the establishment as everyone assumes he is gonna win, Cameron is their favourite now, Brown has to earn his spurs, he has had an easy ride for the last few years. Now if brown takes a lot of flack, so much so that Cameron becomes the establishment, the presumed victor, the press may turn against Cameron and back to Brown, at exactly the time when he needs them most. In the first 100 days of a Brown Premiership. After all why should Brown have to earn his spurs when Cameron gets it on a plate?
So ‘Red Flag’ theory. That in a weird paradox sort of way Brown getting roughed up from the papers when he is not PM could be a good thing for him PROVIDING that he still does win the leadership and the press decide they have given him enough flak and start ramping him and attacking Cameron when people really start to pay attention: In the first 100 days of a Brown’s Premiership.
Please tell me what you think, as I don’t want to have spent all this time writing a theory which nobody bloody reads!!
9. If you have the ability to delete the duplicate posts, can’t you also correctify the numberalisationalisms?
An interesting theory…! So it’s all down to news paper spin and sales figures and not that GB is very unpopular, presumably all those that took part in the poll were Guardian journalists too?
This is very good news indeed, I only wish I could see the misery on Mark Senior’s face as he chokes on his cornflakes.
Some nice ideas Red Flag but I reckon it is the drip, drip of news over years running up to elections that changes opinion, not the coverage of the last 100 days. I like the idea of even the Guardian realising the threat of a Tory win is good for sales.
re 11. Red Flag - I think that there is an enormous amount in what you write. There is always a media narrative and the idea that the Labour leadership was/is going to be a forgone conclusion is something that they were/are going to hate. They want a contest because it makes a good story. The idea that Brown becomes PM without having to go through a few hoops is something that they find alien. If David Cameron and David Davis had to go on Woman Hour and be asked what sort of underpants they wear then so should Gordon.
For it is only during leadership contests that they can subject contenders to the scrutiny that they would like to put them under. How can a man expect to take over at Number 10 without going through this process? A Brown coronation creates a vacuum and, as blogger Paul Linford often notes - nature abhors a vacuum.
I think that the Brown Camp was always naive to believe that that the media would be content with an orderly succession even if Blair was cooperating.
My forecast is that in the immediate aftermath of Tony’s dramatic statement there will be an enormous clamour for a proper race. This will come from all parts of the media and be very hard to resist. In that context I can see David Miliband deciding to take the plunge and he will get favourable coverage throughout the campaign.
This is all a bit like the Tory contest when everything looked set for David Davis to take over. The media was looking for excitement and Cameron provided them with it. The same might happen with Labour and I think the party and the position of the new leader will be the better for it.
re 11 & 15. I think that Brown’s most vulnerable point is Iraq. If he was prepared to threaten to bring down Blair to suit his own career ambitions in September 2006 why did he not do as Robin Cook did in February/March 2003 and threaten to resign? Nobody was going to stop George Bush but a Brown resignation could just have prevented the UK from being there.
This is why it is always going to be hard for Labour to meet the “time for change” calls because Brown did not use the power that he had.
Funnily enough, this is exactly what I thought. I think the Guardian is turning on Brown. The Kettle and White editorials, the front page and the fact that this is coming out on Gordon’s birthday (thus playing up the age thing) are noticeable.
I think that elements of the Guardian’s editorial staff are increasingly anti-Brown, or at the very least just yearning for a leadership contest to make things more interesting.
If only Miliband’s testicles had dropped.
Red Flag,
You are (I believe) right with the media deciding on a narrative. One point though - the timescales. It took from 1992 to 2005 before the media tired of baiting the Tories (and changing from Major - Hague - IDS - Howard didn’t stop it). If the attacks on Labour started in 2003 and shifted to Labour as a whole in 2006, there’s no guarantee that they’ll finish in time for the next election in 09/10. Or the election after it …
11, 15, 16. it’s a very good post and reply. The first paragraphs of Red Moon are particularly good in their analysis. The media will certainly want a contest although I really can’t see Miliband - who has ruled himself out of running on more than one occasion - putting up for the job. He’d have all sorts of questions to answer as to why he’d done a U-turn, especially whether this showed a new lack of confidence in Brown. If you back someone for a job and then run against them, it’s a different matter from simply always having planned to run.
I think the flaw in the Red Flag theory is that the press works on a longer cycle than you’re supposing, because it tries to follow the voters and the voters tend to take ten years or more to get bored with the ruling establishment, not two or three. Look at the ride Blair himself got from 1994 to 1997. He was up against a party not doing too badly on objective measures but which had a dreadful time in the press as the media threw everything they could at them. If the newspapers want to do the same to Labour they can - there’s plenty of ammunition.
The other point is that I’m not convinced of the extent to which the public or the media will distinguish between the PM and the party. As Mike mentions, Brown was around for Iraq and backed it; it won’t go away. In fact, Brown’s been around for everything. Once Blair goes, it may appear that in some ways there’s been no change. Unless there’s a complete change in policy and style I can’t see the press adopting an easier line. And the media know that Brown will be a better target because he’s less proven (and so may be less adept) at dealing with that sort of scrutiny.
Still, unless there’s a sea change among the PLP, it will be Brown. Miliband is just the latest in a long line of alternatives. He may have the luck to be the alternative at the time of the contest, but not only will he not win but he’d be beaten badly. How many members want a new Blair without the charm or ability? Gordon it will be.
19 seanT (O/T)
I shall be very interested to read your report from Southern Thailand since it is where my partner was born and brought up. I won’t give you her take on the problems there in case it prejudices you. At least not until you come back. If you do.
Good luck!
Sorry, that’s seanT at 10. (Don’t you hate it when you do that.)
I’m enjoying it while it lasts, because it won’t last.
We won’t see a sustained 40% til after May. The range is 37-40, meaning the next poll will show a Tory fallback. Also, the headline figures, whilst being spun as all bad for Labour, show no Labour fallback with a three point pop from LD to Tory.
As to Brown, I did predict a possible “Brown trounce”; the blaze of newness may help but I think will be very short-lived, because like Cameron, Blair’s ratings go up whenever he is in the public eye, and post-resignation Blair will be in the public eye a LOT. Retrospectives…
After Blair’s masterly speech to Conference last year the Labour price *lengthened* as the markets priced in what a sorry contrast Brown made to golden Tone.
More of that to come perhaps.
Why should this be seen as damaging for Brown rather than Labour until there is a poll showing Miliband/Reid/Hutton doing substantially, at least 3% or more better against Cameron. Reid’s bubble popped as soon as that was tested in the light of day.
Sky News are also playing the same story prominently (second up after the NHS overspending on drugs), and not even featuring the supposed ‘headline’ figures of 40-31. It’s all on the Cameron-Brown head to head. But as Sherman says, without comparing Brown’s figures against Miliband or AN Other, they’re not much of a pointer to an leadership election.
On the same piece, the phone-in vote has an 81-19 No-Yes split to the question ‘will Brown beat Cameron at the next election?’ The Blairs’ phone bill must be taking a hit.
O/T: Answer is … yes.
Who would gain from this headline?
The group with the biggest influence on the Grauniad are the Blairites.
The weaker Brown is when he takes over the less room he will have to remove them.
11 I read it, Red Flag. Twice. It’s a little ‘clever’ for my tastes but plausible nonetheless and a welcome relief from the wild and unpleasant slanging match on last night’s thread. (Why do people do that? Surely they must realise that it doesn’t persuade, it dissuades.) There’s a just a couple of points I would like to add - comments not criticism.
Nobody knows what GB will be like as PM until he is. I rather suspect he will show up better than most people think. I know this is a minority view and I don’t really want to get into debating it - not because of the flak but because we’ll know soon enough anyway.
The second point concerns GB’s attitude to Iraq. He’s never gone public on this so it’s fair to say he took the Party line. As Chancellor, he could hardly do otherwise without creating a massive rift in the Party. Also, he may quite simply have agreed with TB’s policy, in substance at least.
The assumption is that he is therefore tarnishhed by Iraq almost as much as Blair is. There is however something of a way out for him. I’ll call it the Sir Christopher Meyer line. SCM supported the invasion but is highly critical of the post invasion planning and sees that as the root cause of the appalling situation we now have. (Note this is SCM’s line, not mine.) Whether he believes it or not, Brown could use this to distance himself a little from TB’s policy without raising questions about why he didn’t oppose Blair and the war.
This might work. After all, the detailed planning was largely down to the Americans - Rumsfeld in particular - and it seems they didn’t have much time for the UK Government’s opinion in the post-invasion period, so protestations by Blair would have likely gone unheeded. And as for Brown, ‘Who he?’ the White House would have said and ‘Why doesn’t he stick to running the economy?’ What would have been the point of him kicking up a fuss that would have been as ineffective as it would have been disruptive?
In short, Brown isn’t necessarily doomed by Iraq. It depends how he plays it.
Mind you, I agree he was very clumsy over the ‘World Cup’ nonsense and that didn’t bode well for his tenancy at No.10. Let’s just grant that it was ‘not his subject’. It’s how he handles the big stuff that will really matter.
When he said “when WE won the World Cup” I thought “who’s we, laddie, got a mouse in your pocket?”.
A fine post Red Flag. I actually wrote one with exactly the same thesis last night and then deleted it on the basis that when faced by a bunch of marauding Tories-as was the case last night-it is better to keep your head down than start trying to be logical.
I might have included as evidence that the whole of last Thursday and Friday had Cameron leading the news on his solution to societies ills, a report on Tuesday that our children were the worst in the world and on Wednesday and Thursday pictures and stories of our young people gunned down on the streets of London and Manchester. The ‘Perfect Storm’ if you like for Cameron.
Had a nice chat with the office Tory. He said (rightly!) that the poll, although superficially very good for the Tories, contained a great danger. He said that all those who think “Ok boys, all we (Tories) have to do is wait for Gordon to be PM and the Dave is a shoe-in” are deluded. I know most Tories on this site don’t think in these simplistic terms, but the idea that Labour and GB will just meekly hand over the keys to no 10 without a fight is just daft.
The next election will be the most hard fought (and possibly most nasty) elections since the war. I should think turnmout will be back up to the lower 70% range. I expect the Tories to throw everything at us in the Labour party (and at GB in particular). Labour will no doubt do likewise. (The LibDems will all be joining hands and singing Kumbaya no doubt!)
Roger, not all of us are marauding some of us are like the honourable enemy in the old war movies.
But glad the poll proves what I stated last week people would actually judge a blemished past as a school child as a positive, makes him look more human.
11. Nice try, but a good deal of wishful thinking toward the end. Yer man is damaged goods.
31. “the idea that Labour and GB will just meekly hand over the keys to no 10 without a fight is just daft” - correct, but it has to be the right fight.
“I expect the Tories to throw everything at us in the Labour party (and at GB in particular). Labour will no doubt do likewise” (presumably you mean Labour will throw everything they have at the Tories, not at Brown). Also probably a correct assumption, but it’s the wrong fight for Labour. In a slanging match the nicer, more trustworthy party will win. The other will look petty, vindictive and bullying (see ‘New Labour, New Danger’ c.1996). The wrong fight makes matters worse.
Btw, Cameron’s price is up by 1.1 to 89.8 on the IG Brand Index ‘Popularity’ market. Still worth a buy at that price, I should think.
I could have added to the ‘Perfect Storm’ the article by Frank Field in the Guardian saying Brown should be passed over. It also featured on every news bulletin that day. Clearly the press want as many contests as possible and with as close a result as possible. They are doing their best to handicap the front runner-Brown and Labour-to give the underdogs a chance. I wonder whether Polly T and others will be happy with the editorial line of their newspaper?
The Guardian are definitely going for a stillbirth for a Brown premiership. ~Playing with fire
28. Re. last night’s entertaining ding-dong, it was noticeable (yet again) that the people who get really angry when a positive Tory poll is published are not the Labour posters - but the Lib Dems.
38 - You find mindless rants, insults and abuse entertaining, Scallywag?
39. People losing the plot always amuses me, yes. Hence my moniker.
38 - that’s true. Do we have any figures on who has really been damaged by the Tories move into the 37-40 box?
38, Scallywag,
To be fair, it’s usually only 2 or 3 of the Lib Dem posters - and usually the same 2 or 3.
Otherwise the statement is rather unfair on those like SBS, stodge, ukpaul, Mark Senior and Mike Smithson (amongst others) who take and analyse each poll on its merits. Each side has members who make the rest of them cringe - I don’t take the ranters of any side as representative.
Only one poll, and a rogue one at that.
A contested election for the leadership has to be bad for GB. The only attack on him that will resonate ( because its true) is that he is ‘yesterday’s news’.
Will a torrent of ‘new iniatives’, enquiries and ‘proposed legislation’ announced in his first 100 days change that perception? Probably not, even with the support of the MSM. Definitely not without it.
38 True but it is also noticeable that when 1 good poll for the Conservatives comes out most of the Conservative posters lose all rational thought and take it as the holy grail and ignore all the less positive polls that exist .
The more important thing is not these poll figures which I maintain do not show anything more than that public opinion remains basically unchanged as it has done since last June but the headlines and the way the poll is presented in the news media but even here I doubt whether this will have any longlasting effect .
30-Roger
Agree with you, that after 10 years of a Labour government,the UK coming bottom of the widely respected independent UNICEF childrens poll didn’t do Gordo or Labour any favours.
Meanwhile Gordo was busy with his Britishness thing supporting England’s 2018 world cup bid,I guess an attempt at a diversion from the daming evidence in the UNICEF report.
The problems with Labour dumping GB are still as great as ever:
a) Brown and the brownites would be a huge problem for a new Leader. He-and they -think it’s his birthright to be Leader.
b)TB never built up a young alternative the way Thatcher did with Major. If say Milliband rather than Beckett was Foreign Secretary now things might look a lot different.
c) ( which follows from b) polling Milliband won’t show any bounce because hardly anyone’s heard of him.
I still wouldn’t underrate GB. He’s been planning his moment for years and will have his first 100 days already mapped out. However, it seems to me that the long wait has got to him hence the persistent attempts to suck up to the english which probably damages him in Scotland and gets him nowhere south of the border. He’s never going to get anywhere trying to match DC for style. He should be trying to project an image of weighty competence instead. Incredible to think that he was regarded as an indispensable political asset at the last election; which is one reason why I personally don’t write him off now.
I’m with Red Flag and coincidentally, a notable first, agreeing with Andy Cooke (@ 19).
It is easier to take a leap in the dark when in opposition - in government one suspects the Tories would have chosen a Davis figure. Major was seen as a safe pair of hands as a minister, and Heseltine the risky option when they switched leader mid term. I doubt if the Labour mp’s will be tempted by the exotic choice - not least because they will fear what Brown will do if not elected
The maxim is usually to choose the leader the opposition most fear. I doubt if the Tories are quaking at either Brown or Milliband. That’s a mistake. Browns’ sheer mastery of detail and his ability to sound authoritative is being dreadfully under rated by Benedict White et al.
40 Losing the plot is one thing, Scallywag. Being abusive and insulting is another. It didn’t appear to be coming entirely from one side of the hall.
47, John
Because GB rarely takes a lead on policy issues ( not really a chancelors role perhaps - but more so for an aspiring PM ) when populist topics come up like road pricing , or chips in bins and paying for refuse collection an oft heard response from the general public is
” its that GB who is behind it ” this may or may not be true but the image is of GB directing tax raising initiatives and impractical spending schemes ( tax credits etc ) from behind the scenes - not daring to come out and make the case in public and not really attached to the real word . A bean counter working in a darkened room poring over the ledgers is the image that springs to mind - surprising the caricaturists dont do this image more often - it seems to strike a chord with the public
Despite this poll, Labour will still choose Brown, better to have him in the tent p*****g out than outside the tent p*****g in. Events always eventually turn against a sitting government, whether this is the tipping point we have yet to see. The Tories now have to maintain this lead, for 2/3 years, any sign of slipping back, and the ‘Oh no here we go again’ feeling will start to creep back in.
47 Yes, John, I agree with your final, rather unfashionable point.
47 - Agree that Brown is a figure who the Tories shouldn’t under-estimate but he does have weaknesses which Osborne & Co have exploited quite well. He seems clumsy in his attempts at rebranding himself and not learning from his mistakes - after the first embarrassment over footbal why does he keep coming back to it? He has rarely faced unfriendly questioning in public and lost his rag in Parliament last time. He has this 100 day plan but I wonder how much it addresses public rather than Westminster concerns. We will find out and until September I don’t think polls have that much to say.
50 But David, will that image survive long once he’s PM? I’m very much with John Wheatley on this. When he accedes, we may find he’s no mere bean-counter.
test:
broxtowelabour.org
Ignoring Con strategy - I’d rather see GB lose a GE than the Lab leadership. Would be much more satisfying to see him rejected by the entire country rather than a few hundred MPs.
Cameron is a nice guy - people like him - he’s going to win - its that simple.
Aren’t the Guardian just playing to their readers’ wing of the party, ie the metropolitan elite, which just happens to be the section of the party which most despises Brown. Just as the Guardian doesn’t sell many copies in Scotland, so Gordon doesn’t have many friends amongst the Islington elite, which is why he surrounds himself with such terrifying “mini-mes” as Nigel Griffiths and Doug Alexander.
I remain strongly of the view that Brown won’t get it and that his prize will slip through his fingers within a few short weeks of campaigning. This will be based partly on a press desire for a race, parly on a lack of will in the party to commit electoral suicide, but mainly on a irresistible surge of affection for a fresh new face contrasting with an ever harsher spotlight on this odious man who many already don’t like.
For all their self destructive tendencies, I simply don’t believe Labour will willingly waving away the middle england vote they fought so hard to win.
Miliband is my current flavour of the month - but others remain within the realms… Those banging on about how miliband has ruled himself out are missing the essential codes. Miliband IS ruling himself out, but also emphatically saying that “what is important is we remain bold, new labour, continue direction etc…”. So, unless brown promises to be newer than new labour, miliband has a route to stand.
If I was Miliband, I would be looking for a big experience Cabinet figure to do a joint bid with. You picture a Miliband - Milburn; Miliband - Reid; Miliband - Johnson; Miliband - Clarke; Miliband - Hain; even Miliband - Cruddas dream ticket and Gordon would have a real contest on his hands.
Brown - Balls in contrast, well - that says it all really.
Rough
Sorry about the test post just now - I’m suffering from the spam trap, that censors my website if I include the http://www. for some reason. I just wanted to mention that
broxtowelabour.org/nicksnewsletters/A%20long%20chat.htm
(add the http://www.!) is attracting a fair amount of interest in the local press etc.
On topic, I think I concur with Mike’s view that publicity for Cameron is still helping the party both in the standard poll ajnd when he’s named. Obviously it helps if there’s a controversy over which most people sympathise with his side, as in the question of whether teenage pot-smoking should debar him.
I don’t think there is any doubt that GB will be the next leader and that it will happen in June or July: there may appear to be doubts and hiccups and challenges, but that will be the outcome. I also don’t think we have any real idea of what the polls will look like by the end of the year.
Exclusive to PB and brought to you by JNN, my ASRE poll of polls sourced from ICM, CR, YouGov, Populus and MORI gives :
Con 37.2% .. Lab 32% .. LibDem 19.4% .. Others 11.4%
…………………………..
Having successfully cloned Anthony Wells and Martin Baxter (rather large feet and gigantic ….) with PISSED, the seat prediction is :
Con 290 seats .. Lab 276 .. LibDem 52 .. Others 32.
……………………………
Sources :
JNN - Jacobite News Network.
ARSE - Anonymous Randon Selection of Electors.
PISSED - Political Intelligence, Seat Selector and Elections Determinator.
42. Andy - yes, the ire does tend to emanate from a predictable group of posters.
The intresting thing about this poll is what Mike pointed out. It is not that Tories wet their pants over this. It is the fuss that is made of it in the Guardian.
There is now perhaps a balance here with the Torygraph attacking Cameron and now the Guardian out to get Brown. Only the Murdoch press are happy?
56. Yes, pretty much.
The question for any putative Brown challenger is not “can you beat Brown” but “and can you then win the GE following”.
Otherwise the plan is Brown takeover, loss, new leader, new leader beats the Tories and has ten years. Won’t work but that’s the plan.
Can’t help thinking there must be some frustrated Labour activists and young would-be MPs who would welcome 100 Labour bedblockers losing their seats to give the next generation a chance at the election following.
59. Jack, Dennis Goldie has won the Falkirk West Labour selection with 59 votes against 23 for Ian Smart.
He has already been described as a “car crush waiting to happen”.
I doubt he’ll help to solve your concern about little talent being present at Holyrood
(btw, anyone here is able to use Stata software?)
Thia poll has set the fur flying in the party and opened the eyes of many of those blinded to Brown’s inadequacies.
The tectonic plates are today shifting fast against Gordon both at grassroots level and in the higher echelons of the Labour Party. As things are going he will soon be down to the diehards like Watson and Darling and even some of those will peel off as Gordon’s star continues to wane.
The backstabbing clown will come to rue his arrogance, disloyalty and bullying as he watches his political ambitions turn to dust.
If any poster out there, does not accept that this poll isn’t anything but good news for the Conservatives, then that is simply moronic. But it has to be taken in the context of its a long way to the GE, an awful lot can happen before 09/10. If a week is a long time in politics 2/3 years is an eon. Conservative posters have every right to be cheered, the others, downcast but accepting.
61 I cannot for the life of me see Murdoch supporting Brown. A tax and spend Chancellor, somewhat less of an Atlanticist than his predecessor? Hmmm…think not, somehow.
Interesting morning. Nick Palmer speaks as a Labour MP and we are dumb not to take on what he says.
In spite of the fact that all the evidence says that anyone but Gordon is the right answer for Labour; Labour MP’s and the unions continue to think otherwise.
What is also intersting is the loyal support shown on here towards GB by Labour posters.
In similar situations both in the Conservative election and the Lib dem one there was much open discussion between supporters about the merits and chances of all the candidates.
I have said before that the Labour Party activists are much more sentimental at times than the other parties - less ruthless.
If it was my party, I would say Gordon was toast. It isn’t my party and I think Gordon Brown will become PM during the summer.
After that he has a mountain to climb to bring his poll ratings up from the 29%-31% to the 37-39% he will need to be sure of retaining power.
No-one is saying it’s not possible; just unlikely.
58 Nick P - That was a disgraceful attempt to advertise your birthday! Anyway, Happy Birthday old fella.
I notice your posting number was the same as your age. I don’t suppose that was an accident either!
66. If the polls look anything like this in 2009-2010 I think we can safely assume Murdoch will not back Brown. The interesting question is what he would do if the gap closes up somewhat.
63 Andrea. “Car crash” isn’t even near, more like motorway pile up !!
BTW if anyone wanted to know why Red Ken is romping to another Mayoralty win, here, almost regardless of the merits, is an example :
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/london/6377867.stm
Latest prices(bf)
Lab Lead
GB 1.21, DMill 19, AJ 36, JR 24
Next GE most seats
Lab 2.18, Con 1.83
Blair switch
Q1 38 Q2 2.14 Q3 2.16 Q4 25 2008 28
UEFA Cup (winner)
Newcastle 17 Blackburn 36 Rangers 38
71 - Howay the Lads
(Here’s hoping it doesn’t go t*ts up on Thursday when we attempt to throw away a 3-1 lead…)
What’s so bad about this bloke in Falkirk?
Meanwhile for those of you looking for treasure and adventure with your bucket and spade ….. a pot of gold a distinct possibility, I give you :
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/highlands_and_islands/6375219.stm
66 quite possibly. But note that Murdoch is on the record as “liking Brown very much” and sharing his world view
As soon as Blair goes, the media will be in a frenzy. There’ll be the helicopter chasing him to the palace, the works. Once the leadership/deputy contest gets underway, the papers will be full of it. I actually hope there is a contest for GB to show his best, if you like.
Then cue a slick, stage-managed exit for Blair, waving from the steps of no 10 with Cherie and the kids, being swept off in the limo. Maybe even a few words with Gordon outside the door. Then Sarah and his two babies, waving, cameras etc. Then a speech, primetime to the world’s media.
Don’t underestimate the impact this will have.
74. Didn’t one of your ancestors squirrel that loot away years ago Jack?
76. ‘Don’t underestimate the impact this will have’
A wave of nausea sweeping the land?
What I find interesting is not if it’ll lead to another serious contender to emerge, but what effect this coverage can have on Brown image. He seriously risks to get the leadership in the end, but being already “destroyed” even before starting.
If not Brown…well, I can see Johnson. But not much more. Benn in an unknown quality, Reid is too divisive, Miliband doesn’t seem to have anything special (yet).
David H is right: Milliband is just the latest in a long line of alternatives. Anyone remember when Alan Johnson was going to do it? How we laugh at that now. Then remember Reid? Remember Charles Clarke? Remember Milburn. Milliband is just the next. Actually, what might be an interesting bet is to try and predict the next “great white hope” and make some money on them when their odds come in. I reckon Peter Hain has more of a chance despite his mauling last week!
I still think there will be a poll bounce for Brown, because he must have some populist policy stunts up his sleeve. He has had a decade to think them up! Radical moves on party financing, Lords reform, voting reform, are all possibilities. He wont do anything interesting on Tax (as we have seen over the last decade).
Of course, if for some reason he really doesnt have anything up his sleeve then he will be screwed like John Major post ERM…
34: A “slanging” match? Is that where you say things like “Ere, I got a gert pressie for the trouble an’ strife!”?
Anyone else beginning to thing that Q4 especially and 2008 are worth a mini-bet in the Blair switch market ?
Q2 is a dead duck IMHO.
76. A wave of regret by NuLab supporters that they are losing their biggest election winning asset ?
81 - I’ve been thinking that for a while (Put Tony as PM on Christmas Day in the pb.com prediction competition). My reasoning was that Brown will nobble the alternatives to him (witness Reid, Johnson, etc. falling by the wayside) and the Tories and the press will nobble Brown (witness the Guardian). Also, Blair has all the cards and is in the driving seat - it is very easy for him to create a wave of ‘please stay Tony - you’re the only hope’.
77 Scallywag. Sadly not.
I’ve a considerable collection of wonderful old relics. Sadly I missed a hugely rare hat of Baggot’s Dragoons from the battle of Culloden auctioned on ebay recently.
Talking of wonderful old relics …. happy birthday to Nick Palmer.
Jack W is only 104.
We won in 2005 despite TB, not because of him.
Nick, thanks for plugging your post, it was an interesting read. I’ll make a few comments here if I may:
“Conversely, anyone who is *not* suspected by the police of an offence (which so far as I can gather excludes the Prime Minister and every other elected politician)” That is ambiguous - are you implying that the PM is excluded from not being suspected of a crime??
“On the one hand, it’s undeniable that people are better off” This is too simplistic. Undeniable in what sense? The sense that more people own video recorders now? Or undeniable that suicides are up, depression now affects 1/4 of the population, people are more stressed and fed up than ever? I’m not blaming Labour for this, what I’m doing is pointing out that the whole thing about measuring society in terms of GDP per capita is papering over the soul-destroying effects of the endless treadmill. As a Labour MP it’s a shame that you dont realise how important that is. There is a real problem with the impact modern society is having on that old chestnut: HAPPINESS - which used to be the most important measure of well-being, but which now is some odd abstract goal that politicians no longer care about…
“if you wanted to scrap nuclear power, the best time to say so was last year before the main parties came down in favour.” Um, the Lib Dems are against. Or are you suggesting that they aren’t a main party any more?
“If I disagree with them, the covering note will be cool” Nick, I know you are of the older generation, but “cool” in a context like that now means “excellent”. I think you should use a word like “unenthusiastic” instead
What strikes me is the feeling that virtually everybody in the Labour Party expects GB to get the leadership - he has made sure of it and he looks unstoppable. However, there just doesn’t seem to be any real enthusiasm for him from Labour members - just a resigned (and loyal) acceptance that it’s going to happen so maybe we should just get on with it.
Seems quite a dangerous situation for Labour - as if they are sleepwalking into a Brown premiership and can’t do anything about it.
p.s. What on earth has Gordon done to upset the Guardian?
I am a Labour member and most of the people I know in my local party can’t WAIT for Gordon! Ever since DC had that hissy fit at the last budget I started to look forward to when Gordon could answer back. I am looking forward to this!
As for the Guardian, I am appalled. THey (along with the Observer) risks alienating their readership. The Guardian could never come out in favour of Cameron, as most people would stop buying it in disgust.
Re 9, Mike That is just a plot to make my typo’s look even sillier! How dare you
I sense an increasing realisation that we are moving towards a new generation of political leaders, most obviously exemplified by Cameron. As Blair and Bush step aside the public will want fresh untainted faces, not a description that fits Gordon Brown.
Step forward David Miliband and Barack Obama.
88 The Guardian is as enthusiastic about Brown as the Mail is about Cameron.
Re 11, Red Flag and 15, Mike, good points well made. The press won’t like a coronation, and will keep kicking Brown. A long while ago now I came to the conclusion that Brown had hobbled all his opponents and would continue to do so.
I think he still will. Brown does not like contests no matter how much they might benefit him. As such the press will kick him and enjoy it.
Red flag is also right, that whilst the press are on your side it looks like you are doing no wrong no matter what the truth of the matter is. Labour are losing the press.
Re 28, Peter the unpleasant spat last night became a lot more pleasant by email. I think possibly bad choice of words combined with a will to misunderstand led to problems.
93 Or posting on return from the pub?
Re 31, Red Flump, “(The LibDems will all be joining hands and singing Kumbaya no doubt!)”
I agree with most of what you said bar that, the Lib Dems can play very nasty indeed seat by seat.
Actually Benedict, I forgot how just damn nasty they can be myself! Yet they seem to project this pious holier-than-thou image which is totally unjustified!
95: Yawn. The scratched record is beginning to tire Benedict. Didn’t you get your fill last night?
88. “When Gordon could answer back.”
Oh yes, that will be fun. I can’t wait for all the statistics about tractor production in the East Midlands…. *snore*
Re 47, John, “Browns’ sheer mastery of detail and his ability to sound authoritative is being dreadfully under rated by Benedict White et al.”
No, it isn’t. We just don’t think it plays well to the public. As Mike Smithson points out time and time again, Cameron has “star quality” Brown doesn’t.
It matters little how good he is at detail in the back room (though looking at tax credits etc. I am not convinced he is brilliant) it is a matter of how he sells his policies and how he handles things going wrong. Blair can, looks like Cameron can handle a bit of a storm, whilst Brown hides when there is trouble!
Gordon is not like that! You are projecting things onto him to suit your own agenda.
Jack, can I ask you what do you think about Falkirk West? Is it going Labour unless Goldie starts to calle “nazi” all people canvassed and who don’t pledge their support for Labour?
(In 2003 Labour had a 16% majority over SNP in the list vote, so quite comfortable)
Re 94, Peter, You might think that, I couldn’t possibly comment
Happy birthday, Nick
Re 97, Mboy, see Redflump at 96
Mr 40% Cameron is live on Radio 4 at noon answering questions sent in by the public.
I don’t understand why this poll created so much friction, it’s within the margin of error of other polls we’ve seen, nothing to get steamed up about at all. I think one of the problems is that we get a comparison with the previous published poll by another pollster and, with them using a different methodology, we reach the highs and lows of the box, making it look like there’s more movement than there is.
Not really my birthday - the article was two weeks ago! But thanks everyone. The press picked it up because I linked to Tory and LibDem websites as well as Labour’s - there were two articles in the Evening post on whether this was daring, confident or just stupid.
Probably would bore people to respond to your points on my off-site article, MBoy, but thanks anyway. I do appreciate that being materially better off is not everything…
No matter what you think about Tony Blair , new labour spin , Iraq and all that - he is a great performer in a way that GB never is -
TB and Art Garfunkel last Sunday for example - did you hear Art say he was a great admirer of TB - they then joked about TB going on tour with Art … It all made for good celebrity entertainement - and this came after an eloquent defence of his policy on Iraq - many may disagree with what he said but he was there engaging in he debate and listenting to the questions . Makes quite a contrast with GB ( it takes a lot of backroom detail to make up for lack of charisma ) . I think labour will quickly miss TBs skills - in the same way a vacuum was left after MT for the conservatives - although a different sort of vacuum ! This is also why Millibands question time blunder was so relevant - even though he did not really say it everyone knows it has a ring of truth
101 Andrea. Sadly I think it most likely that Goldie will take the seat. Only two factors might mitigate against such a disaster.
Firstly, if Goldie continues to stick his not inconsiderable size 12’s in his not too small gob and the media determindly turn against him.
Secondly, if Canavan issues a local encyclical against Labour generally and Goldie in particular.
The complete over reaction to Cameron’s non story (15 year old spliff) has helped raise his profile. Masses of free advertising that also conveyed a concealed message that the Tories have changed- heh if they can elect a dope smoking leader they really must be different. Even the best marketing guru couldn’t have been this clever- get your guy some profile, whilst sending out clear, quiet signals that the Tories have changed. I know Cameron is a good spinner, but even this is beyond his powers methinks.
As for the Gordon comparison, I would say “just hold firm Gordy. In a charisma/ beauty snap shot now you are going to come a long way second mate. Cameron’s has had loads of recent coverage that only goes to spotlight his youth, better looks, and cool. Your profile is the dour chancellor- the boring book keeper, the friendless accountant.
But your time Gordy will come mate- not long now. Then people will be interested in you. Your profile will change- no longer in Blair’s shadow, no longer characterised solely by your job. Show a bit of penache, showcase a few good ideas, use your considerable strategic intellect carefully. You will be the main man bro, and you will wipe the floor with the Eton upstart. Will be a lamb to the slaughter- and that clunking fist that old Tone spoke about will be used to good effect”.
It seems to me that Cameron is playing a very clever game with the media. He makes sure he’s very high profile for a period, showing all his star quality, and then goes away before people/the media get sick of him. The only news stories the media has got for big headlines are those hitting the government, and those suggesting someone else for the Labour leadership (which is a foregone conclusion - but thats not a story). Then Cameron comes back with a sympathetic story - being an innocent schoolkid supposedly being attacked from all sides and everyone sides with him. Then, with that fresh in everyone’s memory he does a lot of interviews prescribing his new direction for society ills. My bet is that this will last for another week or so before he goes into the background again. And then repeat.
104: Oh right… Must be true then.
An amusing quote on the Guardian Comment is Free blog:
“Still, Gordon Brown would make an excellent leader of Her Majesty’s Opposition. After all, he’s spent the past decade fighting the current Prime Minister.”
Re 112, I am pleased you are so magnanimous in defeat
Seriously though the one thing the reds and blues can generally agree on is our loathing for the campaigning practices of the yellows. See here for an example:
http://aconservatives.blogspot.com/2006/07/is-it-mendacity-or-double-think-on.html
Of course you could argue that we miss our own misdemeanors, but that is life.
” The next election will be the most hard fought (and possibly most nasty) elections since the war. I should think turnmout will be back up to the lower 70% range. I expect the Tories to throw everything at us in the Labour party (and at GB in particular). Labour will no doubt do likewise. (The LibDems will all be joining hands and singing Kumbaya no doubt!) ”
I agree… and won’t it be fantastic !
Matt.
Deputy First Minister, Nicol Stephen, has announced that Orkney will host the largest wave power project in the UK, JNN can exclusively reveal that not to outdone on his green credentials David Cameron will propose a similar project on the Thames.
Apparently at high tide Nick Soames will be dunked in the Thames and the subsequent water displacement will help to power half the homes in North London. Reports that Eric Pickles has gone into hiding cannot be confirmed.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/6377423.stm
111 He’s certainly winning the PR war at the moment, tjm, but then he’s a media background so you’d kind of expect that. Also, he’s got just about everything running his way at the moment. It might be different when TB has gone at GB takes him on at level weights. Tyson’s view might then prove to be fairly close to the mark.
” We won in 2005 despite TB, not because of him. ”
In my opinion, 2005 was a stage-managed NuLab Con-Job. They won’t be able to do it again, not for a very long time.
Matt.
Off to France Seg’s price is continuing to drift- cannot go much beyond 3.5’s on betfair and should tighten post first round poll.
Shame that this election isn’t closer at the moment- starting to become as one sided as our UK affairs.
119. I suppose it could get exciting if Bayrou overtakes Sego and there’s a chance he could beat Sarko in the final round. All this said, I still can’t see Sego falling at the first hurdle, even though her campaign has been rubbish. Surely it would destroy the Socialist Party to fall into third place twice in a row?
There’s still a long way to go until election day. Not convinced Sego is going to pull it off, though. She has not adapted well to the critical glare of an election campaign well at all. Just goes to show how important it will be for Cameron to, you know, actually have solid, thought out policies at the next GE. Otherwise he could face the same problem.
116. Any chance of a wind power project utilising some of the hot air produced by Snowfake et al.?
Re 121, Scallywag, The National grid could not take the power input
122.
117 peter the punter- Cameron’s epitaph “if only politics was just about marketing?”
Substance and trust will come into play at some point. Do I trust this guy with my mortgage, and my future? Do I trust him with my health? What about terrorism? Would he be good in a crisis?
By the way sentiment, and tribal loyalty to anything left has led me to punt for the lovely Seg. 3.5’s is good. I’ve also put a speculative punt on Gore- I think the Oscars- announcement of a bid?? Not beyond the bounds- after all Brittany shaved her hair off.!!!
Benedict
The preferred voice for customer call centres (after Hydrabad cheapness is factored out) is supposed to be north east Scotland.
It carries sober respectability and common sense allegedly. John Smith basically. Brown is from the right area, although I grant you not as amiable as John Smith
If the weedy John Major could sound as though he was in charge then surely Gordon can do it. And he is sitting on majority somewhat larger than the Tories in 1992.
Cameron and spliffs - I reckon the younger voters just think “that was me”.
124. Your money is down the drain on both counts but especially on Gore - he’s organising huge “Live Earth” concerts this summer - he won’t want them politicised by running again.
124 I can’t wait to see them squaring up across the dispatch box, Tyson.
Did you catch Sego on TV last night? I got a glimpse and she somehow failed to convince. I heard mixed reports of the performance but it clearly wasn’t a disaster, as her price has now stabilised. Not sure I’d back her though. I am definitely undecided!
As for Gore, he’s a problem for me. I’ve all bases covered in the Democratic race - except Gore. I suppose I should take out some insurance - at 7/1 it would be fairly cheap and the Oscars could make a hell of a difference. Hmmmm…more indecision.
Did Britney shave off all her hair, or just her head?
jamie- I do not think that Royal has the proverbial- but 3.5 might provide a good laying opportunity if she gets through the first round.
Gore is interesting though. Why hasn’t he ruled miself out? Warner has. A good quote I heard from the 2000 elections is that the republican party wanted to win the presidency far more than their leader who was just really going through the motions (family duty and all), and the Democratic leader (Gore) wanted to become president far more than his party, who had been pretty much corroded by the Lewinsky affair.
I think Gore still has that hunger- so 10’s looks quite good.
Gore will decide as late as September, and might jump in if Hillary isn’t as clear a frontrunner as she is today. However, his negatives are skyhigh, and if that doesn’t change, which is unlikely, the pompous ass will prefer basking in his newfound glory of being saviour of the world instead of loosing again - this time big.
Re 125, John Wheatley, Thing is that Major faced Kinnock at the 1992 election. Cameron is no Kinnock, and Brown is no Major (looking like a clean broom that is)
Peter the Punter- I think you’ve hit the nail with Sego, which is a problem. She just ain’t convincing, and I think as woman (like business) you have to be twice as good as a man to succeed. Merkel is an outstanding politician and she only just scraped by a discredited Shroeder.
Gore is at 10’s now- I’ve got a few hundred at this price over the last days. Maybe though he is playing a longer term game- mid 50’s now- he could come into play in the next election (if GOP) wins. I am speculating on a post Oscar bit of publicity.
129 Yes, Jan, that’s a good point. Hillary looks pretty solid.
Apparently at high tide Nick Soames will be dunked in the Thames and the subsequent water displacement will help to power half the homes in North London.”
Would that make it the first time that a whale had ever been spotted in the Thames?
131 Jan’s convinced me…until I change my mind again!
129- not much love there for Al from Norway.
Is Gore not a bit like Blair - more popular on the other side of the pond than on his own patch ?
129- not much love there for Al from Norway.