Which candidate comes out worst from this?
February 21st, 2007
What does this all mean for the Republican race?
Lots of interesting polls coming out of the US at the moment on the 2008 White House race. For the latest check here.
The above one, which came out a few days ago, is perhaps the most interesting in that it looks at negatives in a theoretical sense. For the Democrats the lack of negatives for a black or a female nominees looks encouraging.
It’s the Republicans who have the biggest problems. Of the three front-runners:-
The main White House betting markets can be linked from here. I am now laying (betting against) both McCain and Giuliani for the Republican nomination.
Mike Smithson
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But who’s the gay atheist?
I guess it means that 72 year old gay atheists shouldn’t stand for president…
I think these figures are a stunning criticism of the US electorate. Aside from the bigotry against gay people, the Mormon and atheist figures are incredible. Americans would be more willing to vote for someone who believes ancient Israelites crossed the Atlantic than someone with an evidence-based viewpoint!
And incidentally, I think it would be very hard for someone to say they wouldn’t vote for a black person in an opinion poll even if they believed it.
3. ‘I think it would be very hard for someone to say they wouldn’t vote for a black person in an opinion poll even if they believed it’
Agreed. I’m not sure how seriously we can take that particular finding.
..and meanwhile Ruth Turner questioned again. Is Inspector Yates holding back the ‘big one’ until just before May’s elections?
http://uk.news.yahoo.com/21022007/325/police-quiz-blair-aide.html
Guliani has been extending his poll leads with the Republican voters; I think he’s good value.
So, it’s the Democrat’s prize to lose then.
But I still think Edwards will get the Dem nomination
Nice comparison of bigotries - the ones that have been the subject of long public campaigns (sexism, racism) have all but disappeared, while pretty open/rancid attitudes are still widely held towards gays and atheists. I’d be really interested to see the same survey carried out in multiple countries.
Specifically to the primaries, I wonder how the 72/married 3 times things would break down in the swing voters in the likes of Ohio and Florida. Also, McCain’s problem might be that ageist views are fairly equally held by all parts of the political spectrum, discouraging some potential Dems to vote for him. By contrast, Giuliani’s marriage history will only influence some social conservatives - admittedly an important section of the electorate, but a relatively small one compared to those who might consider McCain’s age a factor.
For Romney it’s a curious mixed bag. He might suffer in the primaries as evangelicals, with their high turnout rates, are also those most likely to be bothered about his faith. However, once past the primaries and facing a wider electorate, it’s likely to be less of a negative than age/marriage are for the other two. Confusing things further, this eventual (comparative) electability might feed back into expectations, and results, in the primaries.
My bet would be on the simplest outcome in a 3-way race: the weakest candidate gets squeezed out, and accepts a VP slot - if McCain gets elected he’ll be 77/78 in 2012…..
“And incidentally, I think it would be very hard for someone to say they wouldn’t vote for a black person in an opinion poll even if they believed it.”
Maybe here, yes, but the history of race in America has left such a scar on its society that [some] attitudes are different over there.
If you want to bet on something involving voting (whether politics, the X-Factor or Big Brother), understand that the electorate may not think like you - this is essential.
Ah, sorry, missed your point somewhat there; though my general advice still stands!
I suppose it would depend on the method of polling - was this an internet or phone poll?
My Democrat leaning friend in Maryland is firmly for Guliani. However, some of his Republican friends who are also regular church go-ers have no time for him. Whatever happens, it will be far more interesting than the last time the Presidential prize was up for grabs.
10 - you may (I wouldn’t know for sure) get more racial bigotry in America than here, but I wouldn’t think it’s any more acceptable to articulate such views.
But yes, some attitudes are different there, particularly towards atheists. I once read an interview that the American atheist society (or some such) did with Douglas Adams. He never made a secret of his atheism, and I suppose as someone fairly well known over there he made a good choice of interview target. But their questions seemed to make little sense to British ears - “what obstacles have you found in life as a result of your professed atheism.” The British might be mildly surprised by an open declaration of atheism, but more because the British are mildly surprised by any expression of religious certainty, and I’m sure there would be more shock here if someone declared their belief in God with the same conviction. It would be interesting to see how many British voters would be put off by a belief in God.
That’s a really interesting poll. Quentin Crisp would have been lynched.
14 - And yes, I did see a photo of David Cameron going to church on one of the tabloids today. But the subtext was a) what a slightly odd thing to do, and b) but it’s ok, he’s probably just doing it to get the kids into a good school - which we look on as mildly underhand, but normal.
Two things -
Firstly, Mike says that “The above one, which came out a few days ago, is perhaps the most interesting in that it looks at negatives in a theoretical sense.” It’s only theoretical in theory
- Charles Franklin has a post here with a graph of past questions of this type - http://www.pollster.com/charles_franklin/would_you_vote_for_a_fill_in_t.php
In nearly every case there is a nice upwards line as people become more open-minded towards voting for minorities. The big exception is for Mormons, which could be that Mormons have suddenly become less acceptable, but I suspect it’s because suddenly there is a specific Mormon for people to object to (the slight fall in the proportion of people who say they’d vote for a female President also seems to co-incide with Hilary Clinton being seen as someone who could potentially run!).
Secondly, on polling about voting for black candidates, there is a good paper by PEW here -
http://pewresearch.org/pubs/408/can-you-trust-what-polls-say-about-obamas-electoral-prospects
Historically there has been a problem with polling on black candidates in the USA, they always do better in polls than in reality, presumably because of people being afraid to appear racist to pollsters (for the same reason David Duke used to do much worse in polls than he did in reality). Interestingly though, in the 2006 polls there wasn’t such a pattern, suggesting that the race factor is fading in US politics (or that people are no longer fussed about appearing racist).
Miliband in to 13.5 with Betfair.
I wonder what proportion of the electorate read, for example, “would you vote for a 72 year old?” as “would you vote for McCain?” The questions are posed with awareness of potential candidates and, by some at least, they will be answered in the same way. Worse, they are highlighting the most controversial aspect of each candidate.
This effect will not be equal for every question, as some are more general, or answering no is less socially acceptable. A very interesting poll, but perhaps risky to jump to conclusions?
I agree that the things listed will be factors but I don’t think they’re going to be decisive. Sure some people might not like McCain’s age when it’s given to them as a bold fact but he doesn’t seem like an old man, he’s targeted young people (Daily Show, University talks etc) and there’s a lot more to him than just his age.
I doubt the findings would have changed much if the question said “would it make you less likely to vote for someone if…”
You are all of course assuming that:
1) Those polled actually knew what “atheist” means
2) Voters know Guilliani has been married 3 times
etc
If you are laying both Giuliani and McCain then surely you have got to be fairly clear about who you think might win. The problem is here that of the other candidates Gingrich/Brownback are too right wing to win the Republican nomination and Romney looks too full of contradictions at the moment to get the lift off he will need to win as well. He seems to have changed position on key touch stone issues for the Republicans more often than Owen Hagreaves has done for England.
17. Another £2 and he can be 12s..
Back in the 50’s the BBC sent out a memo to its comedy writers, pointing out they shouldn’t make jokes about the following: royalty religion, disablity, the colour question, or homosexuality. Frank Muir said, Lets see now, what’s the best way to remember this, I know, My God’ that one eyed n****r over there is a poof said the Queen’ (it was a long time ago, pc wasn’t known then) Obviously something similar will have to be thought of when choosing a Presidential candidate.
What might posters here respond to these questions?
I wonder what “Islamic” would have scored ?
20: ‘…Those polled actually knew what “atheist” means’
Hmm, with all respect to Americans, I do get the impression that a good number regard ‘atheism’ as interchangeable with ’satanism’.
24: yes to all…
6: Actually no. The latest poll shows McCain catching up on Giuliani (see Real Clear Politics). Too soon to call…
Mike fascinating poll. I wonder how it splits with the parties normal support base?
perhaps we will have to look at the dark horses and undeclareds on the Republican side!
24,
Also “yes” to all.
I think that next year’s election is going to be pretty interesting.
3 Thinks that’s a bit of a bigoted comment in itself tjm …
I suspect here the same poll would yield worse results against
‘Catholics’, ‘Blacks’ and ‘Jews’.
Better results for ‘Woman”multi marrieds’ and ‘athiests’
And would be too close to call for ‘Homosexuals’ and ‘Aged’
At a bit of a loss to understand why this would make us ’superior’
to the Americans ?
21. I don’t think you do necessarily need to have an alternative in mind in order to lay the favourites in this particular race. I think the GOP nomination is begging for an outsider that perhaps none of us have even considered yet, given the obvious negatives aginst the front three in the market. I think laying McCain is a very solid strategy. Every time he gets caught on camera dozing off or looking less than dynamic (as has happened more than once recently), the age issue will come up. I can see John Stewart, Letterman etc. going on about it at every possible opportunity once the primaries get underway.
I’ve backed Brownback. I can’t believe he can really win, but I think he can build up a bit of momentum and shorten up in price once Republican voters get to know more.
Is there an age limit to which even reasonable people would say “no” - not good to have a PM the wrong side of the actuaries bell curve..
32 I think so Tim.
Much as I adored Maggie for instance, even I couldn’t vote for her now.
Looking at that list, that only thing on it that applies to me is ‘atheist’ I’ve committed the only ’sin’ (apart from not being born in the USA) which would bar me. Let’s see now’ Hail Mary full of grace…. its not working.
This poll is bull. All it shows is that Americans know that prejudice that has been the subject of public activism is wrong. As pointed out by Anthony above, people say they aren’t racist, they know it’s wrong…but when it comes to the ballot box it still influences them.
In America, people are proud to hate atheists, and it’s just fine to hate them publically. Check this out:
http://richarddawkins.net/article,621,n,n
Part 1 starts off reasonably innocuously. Looks like a fair, if worrying, report on the victimisation of atheists in America. Then, weirdly, part 2 turns into a debate about why atheists are despised so much - featuring a panel with no atheists whatsoever! They seem to spend most of the time lambasting atheists for lobbying to have “under God” removed from the pledge of allegiance, presumably being too dense and ill informed to realise that it was only put into the pledge in the 50s after lobbying by the ‘Knights Of Columbus’.
There is also a strong counter activism on the subject of homosexuality in the US. Though these days, no one stands up and says it’s OK to discriminate against blacks or the old, there are plenty of upstanding figures who are happy to stand up and say homosexuals are deviants.
If I were Barak Obama, I would just find this poll depressing.
Coldstone, save your breath.
The likes of you and I are destined for neighbouring cauldrons in the hot place.
I can’t say this poll shows the USA in a worse light than any other democracy. As Tory Boy says, it would be instructive to ask the same questions across a range of countries.
21,27,31 and Mike Smithson.
I can see the logic of laying John McCain but Guiliani looks good value to me at 3/1.
Nick Palmer the RCP average of polls you refer to gives Guiliani a 14.6 point lead over McCain. I am not aware of the trend but at 35.3 against 20.5 that still looks like a sizeable lead given their respective market positions.
What would give low numbers in a UK poll ?
* Scottish
* Bald
* Welsh
* Bald and Welsh
* Posh
* Northern
Etc..
Obviously, we in the UK are infinitely superior to the US. Our prejudices against people standing for election are based on much more important things, like where they went to school (Eton?! sorry!), their class background (Worked as a steward on a liner?! No thank you! Worse than that chap whose father made garden gnomes!) their age (when did Campbell run in the Olympics? Good grief, it was all still in black and white back then!) and a variety of other tests to determine the U from the Non-U.
Interesting to note that in the US voters are turned off by atheism, whereas in the UK we seem to be turned off by religious belief. Is either rational?
36
And who would you prefer to chat to, Rasputin or Cliff Richard?
30. I don’t see any evidence for your claims. We’ve had a Jewish PM and the last Leader of the Opposition was Jewish. You’re right, people probably would be less likely to vote for an (outspoken) Catholic. But religion is a belief system, what’s wrong with being discerning about that?
What I find amazing is that 55% of people would vote for a gay President. This from the country where gay marriage seems to be outlawed.
An atheist as president! God help us!
It’s much more comforting to have a Christian President who is happy to unlease terror and death in Iraq.
It would have been interesting if “Muslim” was in the poll.
I believe Obama has denied being a Muslim but I think that were “smears” about this at one time and some mud will have stuck.
42. Judging by their poster campaign at the last GE, Labour presumably believes there is plenty of anti-semitism in the UK.
40. I think it would be perfectly rational to discriminate against a candidate who, for instance, believes that God spoke to them personally and told them to go ahead and invade Iraq.
27, 38. Polls all over the place.
Latest poll today gives Giuliani 22% lead. Previous poll had lead down to 7%.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/polls/
46. King Arthur out of the running, then?
What is going to happen at the Calderdale by election tommorrow
Illingworth and Mixenden?
figures last May were:
Liberal Democrat 296
Independent 124
Conservative 682
Labour 840
BNP 1075
Percentage polled: 36.14%
Can Labour get past the BNP, how will the Conservative and BNP votes come out. On the basis of the latest opinion poll the Cons must have a chance, but I believe this is a ward with two BNP and one Labour councillors
Quite a critical poll for the BNP, Burnley and Calderdale were their growth areas 2 - 3 years ago, The Lib Dems defeated them in Burnley last week, can either Labour or the Cons do the same, I suggest it is pretty important they do.
Fair Point - Anyone but Cliff !
Having lived in both the mid West and the East coast (and having been in a bus on the way to New York for my flight home on 9/11) I cannot see any Republican alternative beating Guilliani. Plus, I do not think the Dems will know how to attack him. 3 wives? So what? This is “America’s Mayor” this is a man who offered leadership when Georgie Bush was ensuring that the Bin Laden’s kids could get back home without bother whilst the rest of us were grounded. If the Republicans can stomuch him as a candidate then I’m sure he’ll become President.
stomach sorry, not stomuch
Re the US Poll.
What do you do if both parties nominate say a three times married man. I do not for minute expect that to affect the issue of how people would vote. Before Kennedy was elected in 1960, there were polls and statements that a Catholic would not be President and the same with Reagan, when his age was supposed to be against him. In the end party loyalties and real issues play most heavily and determine the outcomes.
42 Your points with respect aren’t relevant.
Just because we’ve had the categories you outline (and a woman leader too) doesn’t mean there weren’t a percentage of people that didn’t vote for them specifically because of the ‘category’ they fitted into.
The poll above outlined the % of people who wouldn’t vote for specific categories of people. It wasn’t a poll of how many would or of whether or not they could be elected.
49. I spoke to the Conservative candiate yesterday and he said that it’s between him and the BNP. You might say that ‘he would say that, wouldn’t he?’, but actually, no - he wouldn’t. If he thought he was going to lose badly (ie third place), he’d have said so; it’s just that I wouldn’t have posted it here. He didn’t mention any figures (or indeed how close it is), and as I saw him on a different subject and was in a bit of a rush, I didn’t press the issue.
55 David. Tories in “We’ll win by-election shock.”
I’ll cheer a Tory win if it keeps the BNP out as I’m sure even the most partisan of us would.
Ex army Tim Collins is he a Conservative party spokesman now.
As he can`t resist in making partisan points when interviewed.
Even think the sky news man was getting embarrassed today.
Expert witnesses so called, should have there political allegiances announced if they are a declared supporter, so we know they are not totally objective.
The thing with this poll and other similar ones is that it doesn’t tell you who those who would vote for are. If a candidate gets the support of 25% of the population, they’ve a good chance of making it to the White House; 30% and they’re laughing. The low turnout means that we can discount at least 40% of the population if we know who they are. There may also be differences between how supporters of the two parties would react. If all those who wouldn’t vote for a 72 year old are Democrats or abstainers, that’s not a problem for McCain - and so on.
It’s an interestingly worded poll, implying that voters have already been sifted by party, or are registered party supporters. If so, such a breakdown by affiliation would be extremely interesting, not to say helpful.
As others have said, when it comes to it, it will be the candidates and policies that count - rather than abstract population types. Even though this is a strangely minorities-heavy election making this sort of poll possible, come 2008 there’ll be bigger issues in play.
Mixenden & Illingworth has quite a volatile electoral history. The old Mixenden ward was usually Labour, but could be won by the Tories in good years, like 2000. The BNP won it in a by-election in 2003, and then took two out of three seats in 2004, after boundary changes. One of the BNP councillors is actually a former Tory councillor in the ward.
If Labour are performing badly locally, then quite possibly, anti-BNP voters will switch to the Conservatives, although the Conservatives would have to make up an awful lot of votes to overhaul the BNP.
The BNP also have had problems, locally. One of their local councillors was convicted of housing benefit fraud last year (although not given a jail sentence), and a local activist was found guilty of sending hate mail to local Muslims (although his conviction was later overturned on technical grounds).
58 - That will be an interesting trend, particularly on the BBC. Education expert, Fiona Miller; Mrs Marr (sorry the Hon Jackie Ashley)and those sundry think tanks such as the IPPR etc who just happen to be Government cheer leaders, will be a start.
Re Mixenden & Illingworth
Harriet Harman was up there campaigning for Labour last week.
#59 - I doubt it. Not since the Catholic Kennedy won the Presidency in 1960 will such details be of such importance. Even then and forever before and since, the presidential race has been between two of Moore’s “stupid white men”.
If it is different this time, it will be a big deal, particularly if a “stupid white man” decides to run as a third-party candidate.
54. It’s fair enough to say my points aren’t the same measures, but they’re not entirely irrelevant. It’s a heck of a lot harder to win if you’ve automatically lost 10% of the electorate before you even begin.
Anyway, I simply disagree with your claims. I’ve hardly ever heard anti-semitism in the UK, where I’ve experienced it a fair bit in the US. I don’t even think anybody would really discriminate against a religious person if they never talked about it. However, I think people would vote against someone who was explicitly religious and openly said they based their decisions and actions on their religious views. But that’s fair enough isn’t it?
And I still don’t get what was bigoted about my first post.
55 - In my experience candidates are the worst predictors of election results. You are better off tossing a coin.
61,
I agree which anyway it comes from if they are portrayed as an expert witness, and they are a declared supporter of any party.
The viewer or listner should be informed.
So they can make their own judgment on the obectivity of the comments.
55 David Herdson
Tell him The Punting Party is rooting for him, to a man.
58.”Ex army Tim Collins is he a Conservative party spokesman now.”
Dez, he has just retired from a career in the army under this government so I don’t think he needs the excuse of being a tory to be critical.
Sky interviewer was unhappy last time I saw him interviewed because he was critical of the line taken in the friendly fire incident. The interviewer tried to spin the line that he had been embedded with the Americans so felt he had a good idea of what “must” have happened, Tim Collins pointed out that his unit had been following the group which came under attack so was in a better position to judge the situation!
This kind of sums up the government’s lack of commitment to the soldiers, considering the deployments they have been sent on in recent years I would have thought getting a grip on this would have been a priority.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/6380759.stm
68,
I agree also he doesnt need the excuse of being a tory to be critical.
However I just heard him interviewed and his partisan comments were very obvious, and politcal like saying “this was all done for Labour party members”.
If this is the case the viewer should have the chance to know his declared support, if he is there as an expert witness to events.
67. Thanks.
65. Noted.
63. I certainly wouldn’t claim that these things will be of no importance, but I do feel that the voters will get used to the fact that Hillary’s a woman, Obama’s black, McCain’s old, Giuliani’s remarried, Romney’s a Mormon and Richardson’s Hispanic - and it will become just another factor in the same way that Margaret Thatcher being a woman was not of great significance electorally, though her personality was. What will matter is whether the candidates can deal with the questions that arise out of them - hypocrisy for those with patchy marital records, fitness and illness for the older ones etc.
If a third serious candidate does run, are there any straws in the wind as to who might do so? It would probably prove fatal to whichever ticket was split.
58. etc. hilarious astroturfing
71.
Did`nt think it was that funny.
However if thats all you can say you are very original.
As don`t think anyone has heard that one before.
Totally OT, but I’m loving the name of the guy who interviewed Blair for newsweek, the wonderful Stryker Mcguire. I can only assume that his parents dreamt of a career in .. errmmm adult entertainment, and were sorely dissappointed when he became a pol corr.
Almost as good as my favourite Beeb journalist, Julia Caesar. Maybe they could get together.
More seriously, David H, your points on the thread last night, were as ever, thoughtful and useful- sorry i didn’t get to respond in a timely fashion!
Actually, Romney’s campaign is imploding because of abortion and Log Cabin Republican flipflops - youtube clips showing what a dreadful opportunist weathervane he is.
Right wing erstwhile supporters are jumping ship, check polipundit and the Corner blogs.
McCain has had a good week with the base after coming out to reverse Roe vs Wade (that would not make abortion illegal, it would leave it up to the states to decide).
Andrea where are you? Prodi has resigned. What does it mean?
OT. Italian government is set to resign tonight
75, 76 - So another election soon then
64 tjm - I don’t want to have a major falling out over it but what I thought was bigoted about your earlier post was you comment “I think these figures are a stunning criticism of the US electorate” which to me infers you feel the results represent a shortcoming on the part of the American people.
I still can’t understand why you feel “US” is anymore relevant than “UK” where, as I mentioned,I believe the outcome would very broadly similar.
As for not having heard any anti semitism - how many votes do you think a Jewish Candidtae would pick up in a heavy muslim (and there’s quite a few of them) area ?
Andrea Does it definitely mean elections and if so how quickly?
“McCain has had a good week with the base after coming out to reverse Roe vs Wade ”
Hrrrm, not sure he really did. In the past he’s said he’d _like_ to overturn it, but the consequences (wrt illegal backstreet abortions) would make it impractical. Admittedly his current phrasing (”should be overturned”) is a little stronger, but I’m sure he’ll return to the previous position after the primaries.
Lot of flip-flopping going on here generally - Romney in particular seems to have a different position on major issues every election. Giuliani will surely capitalise on this in his political ads.
Is Silvio is the running for a recall …..??
79. Blue Moon. Now I think the procedure is that the President of the Republic will call all parties represented in Parliament and will ask them their opinion. After having heard from them about their views, he’ll either give the mandate to someone to try and form a government or he’ll call for new elections.
Oh no! We’re not going to get Silvio back are we?!
78. I suppose the thing is that we have the facts about the US to hand. Large parts of the electorate do appear to be homophobic and religiously intolerant, and smaller parts admit to being racist.
The figures for the UK may well be similar (though would vary from topic to topic), but without the facts, it’s just speculation. tjm’s post seems fair enough to me - there’s no comment that we’d be better on a similar poll, but the figures for the five categories at the bottom do not reflect the US as an open and tolerant society.
83 - Yes, we are. If the CR is ahead in the polls, Silvio is still leading them, so he will be back. In other words, he’ll be able to stop all the investigations and inquiries into him and his corrupt chums. Unbelieveable.
Interestingly Tory Boy though I agree the UK can be as bigoted as anyone-witness the Tories going on about the Scots the Welsh the Muslims and the Gypsies in that order-I read an article in a British Airways magazine that told a different story on race.
I cant remember the exact figures but these are pretty close. They asked Americans if they would be happy for a close relative to marry someone from a different ethnic group. In the UK the YES figure was in the late 70%’s whereas in the US it was less than fifty.
84 David - I neither agree nor disagree with that.
I’m only saying that there’s no evidence we are any better !
Re- Italy- From a betting point of view.. wonderful. The last Italian election was an education.
From a political point of view- why resign? AIUI, the Senate vote was non-binding- Seems an odd issue to stake everything on.
86 OK Roger, I agree All Tories are Racist.
No-one in Nu-Lab has never had an impure thought in their entire lives
It’s totally inexplicable why the BNP vote is going up in working class Labour areas at the same time the Labour vote is falling.
The sportinvestor site agrees re McCain and Giuliani - they did a piece a couple of days ago.
I find it riveting that 11% of Americans won’t vote for a woman. That’s a bigger percentage than Mike’s analysis suggests - though many may be naturally Republican, it does augur badly for Hillary…
http://sportinvestor.wordpress.com/2007/02/19/us-politics-do-mccain-giuliani-really-have-nomination-locked-up
88. BritSpin. Why resign?
I think it’s because he knows that every vote would produce more or less the same situation: a too close to call vote (hoping 97 year old Montalcini’s health is still strong)
There are some fairly shocking figures in that fascinating poll. The link from Anthony is also v/ interesting.
I wonder whether McCain might be able to transcend the age thing in the same way that Reagan did. As some posters have mentioned a lot of his appeal (certainly his appeal in 2000) is towards younger Republicans. Its almost inevitable that the age issue will raise its head at some point though - as will the personal life issue for Rudy.
As we posted in our blog yesterday, surely the GOP nomination remains wide open:
http://sportinvestor.wordpress.com/2007/02/19/us-politics-do-mccain-giuliani-really-have-nomination-locked-up/
Re: Calderdale - Illingworth & Mixenden by-election
BATES, Thomas - British National Party
ELDER, Michael - Liberal Democrat
GANNON, Judith - Labour
HARDY, John - Conservative
LOFTUS, Sean - Independent
My man ‘Oooop North’ tells me there have been anti-bnp leaflets delivered on an almost daily basis. Also, the local press have been full of the alleged ex-bnp member ‘bomb’ story.
Labour - very unpopular with it’s core voters. Difficult to know if they will bother to vote.
Tories will increase percentage of vote. However, Conservative is still a dirty word in small pockets of ward.
It’s probably too close to call. However, this is my prediction;
1. BNP
2. Labour
3. Tories
4. Lib Dems
5. Independant
BB
O/T and just a general point. One of the strengths of PB has been the robust but generally good natured and often humorous exchange of views from all sides of the political divide. IMHO the board is losing some of its attraction as a result of a minority of posters abusing people using different log-ins and going on about ‘astroturfers’ etc.
the majority view on this board is now tory (fine, it used to be more lib dem before) and with that there seems a growing tendancy for “anons” to abuse any one either defending the govt or pointing a left-ish point of view.
not grouching, just an observation. it certainly makes me less inclined to want to get involved in discussions.
Re Italy
Napolitano will start the consultation of political parties tomorrow
I can’t resist: I made a bet at 2/1 in June that the Prodi government would last between 6 and 24 months. Seemed like a good idea, given the average life of Italian governments, the slim majority and the unruly alliance Prodi had to put together.
I would think that a new Prodi government is more likely than a fresh election. Andrea: Is it possible that some centrists from the Berlusconi alliance can switch to a new Prodi government, so that he can get rid of one of the Communist parties?
Indeed Bally Eric. It’s not enough that Tory supporters outnumber the rest by dozens to one but despite this they still resort to multiple identities!!
96. “Andrea: Is it possible that some centrists from the Berlusconi alliance can switch to a new Prodi government, so that he can get rid of one of the Communist parties? ”
Jan, at the Senate, the Communists+Greens (who usually tend to take the same stance of the commies on many issues) have more Senators than UDC (Christian Democrats), the centrist part of CR.
I think that a so called “technic” governments (maybe made up by independent ministers) supported by parts of both CL and CR shouldn’t be ruled out as a possibility though.
It can run some months, solve some important and urgent problems (maybe a new electoral law) and give time to parties to re-organize themself
94.
Bally it is more prevalent latley, I don`t why.
Regular posters like Roger when posting get the same similar response constantly which comes quite tedious.
Very interesting thread and poll, would be fascinated to see if there are similar results for the UK. It’s an interesting snapshot of where the US culture is at, and I’d agree with those saying that we can’t go around saying we would be ’superior’ because our scores come out differently. People have many reasons for backing various candidates and parties, and while some of the reasons may be based in ignorance, it’s hardly the candidates’ place to tell the voters whate criteria to make their minds up on.
Lots of parallels here in fact…how many people saying Ming’s age would be a factor? James Gray almost facing deselection over his private life, ridicule of politicians who express a sincere faith. I wonder how many areas there would be in this country where being an ethnic minority candidate would be no barrier, but being a Muslim might?
By the law of averages about 20-25% of this board should be labour supporters, I don’t think (of regular posters) that we’re too far off that figure. I would say that lib dems are slightly over-represented against those who are non-aligned but I wouldn’t say that’s a bad thing on the whole (and at least ColinW has his parents around to keep him in order!)
What you have to admit is the level of dislike of this government that exists among non-government supporters and after nine years it’s hardly unexpected. Enemies have been made and support has evaporated leaving those left feeling as though they are under siege.
Andrea I suppose the question is whether the Right feel they can prevail in early elections in which case why give Prodi breathing space? If there was a ‘technical Government’ which could be in place for a strictly limited period to prepare for elections who would likely lead it? The alternative is for Prodi himself to stay on as caretaker purely for the period of time it takes to organise and hold elections. I take it he can’t find new allies in the senate to get himself a stable majority there or he wouldn’t be in this mess in the first place.
I’ve just put £400 on Brown at 0.25/1 on Betfair. Any takers?
Bally Eric/Dez/UKPaul [94,99,101]
This issue has been aired before. It’s more of a problem in slack periods between elections and when betting is slack. And it’s hardly surprising that Tory posters are more vocal. The Party is enjoying a fine run. Why shouldn’t they be vocal?
102. Nlue Moon, I was talking about it with my mum a few minutes again…since CR should be ahead according to polls, it’s in their advantage to have elections now. A ‘technical Government’ can give CL time to re-organize itselft and try to re-capture back the support left (in 1995 when Silvio fell for the first time, he wanted new elections immediately, because he thought he was going to win them. However Scalforo as President of the Republic didn’t agree and a technical government was created for around 1 year, until 1996 when Prodi won).
UDC seem not to want new elections immediately according to their first comments (they started with “now everyone should reflect, blah, blah”
104 - we’ve been here before. There are probably more Toris than anyone else on the site, but there aren’t a majority - I think it’s about 40/30/20/10 Tory/Lib Dem/Labour/Other, at the moment. Which is only tbe expected - defending a government from attack isn’t much fun.
Apologies if this sounds rude, but the problem a lot of Labour posters have is that they confuse attacking the government with being Tory - so an awful lot of Lib Dems and others are mentally lumped in with the Tories. This seems to be symptomatic of a Labour attitude towards the Lib Dems; Labour often seem to asume that Lib Dems are Labour voters who are voting tactically, or being difficult, or something. This is an image which the Lib Dems from Kennedy onwards have done very little to dispel, and is one of the main reasons why I haven’t voted for them.
You often hear a Labour supporter deal with an argument by calling his opponent a Tory, as if that was some sort of rhetorical wildcard. Just because someone disagrees with the Labour Party, it doesn’t mean they’re a Tory. And even if hty are, that, by itself, doesn’t refute the argument.
Three thoughts Andrea. First, the President is on the left so presumably will help out CL to the extent he can. Second, a technical Government could be put together which had a majority in the Lower House at least so a vote of no confidence wouldn’t be carried. Third, if the Right held together they could seek to defeat any technical Government in the Senate votes which would be necessary arguing that the CL were incapable of governing and were ‘hiding from the electorate’. In that case the President might be forced to call elections. If the CDs don’t bolt from the Right Wing coalition altogether why should they help Prodi or his successor? ( I presume there are crocodiles on the Left looking to take over from Prodi).
93 You were spot on last time. Although bad news stories can (sometimes) damage the BNP, anti-BNP leaflets seem to be pretty ineffectual.
107.
Blue Moon, I think a technical government is an option just if there’s a consensus for it among large parts of both coalitions. Otherwise, I don’t think it would be a suitable.
One of the 2 “rebel” commies is on TV defending his position…I think the head of the group is going to kill him (at least with the eyes)
104.
Peter vocal is fine no problem don`t think you will find me ever complain at that.
However tedious false accusations are no substitute for comment.
106 - It is also increasingly likely that the person being wrongly labelled is a green or BNP supporter (if not UKIP
). I often feel as though I’m treated as an anomaly, just because my second preference (after lib dem) would be a conservative vote*, if you look at the figures though there must be millions like me however.
* Having said that Ann ‘Don’t call me Julian’ Milton hasn’t done much to impress me beyond the skill of managing to plant herself next to Cameron at every photo opportunity.
Andrea The English expression is to look at someone ‘daggers drawn’ or in french ‘a couteaux tires’!
Re 103, Mike, alas I will have to decline your most kind offer
Given that the subject of marriage etc. has been debated at various times here, it’s interesting that the number of marriages dropped by 10% in 2005, following legislation to tighten up on sham marriages for immigration reasons. Church weddings and weddings in approved premises (such as stately homes and hotels) hardly moved, but ordinary registry office weddings plummetted. Registry office weddings were down 74% (!) in Brent, 58% in Haringey, and 51% in Hackney.
Obviously, the legislation on sham marriages was a good piece of legislation, and clearly effective, but it does rather disprove Snowflake’s theory that the number of marriages was gradually rising thanks to Brown’s economic and social policies.
110 - Dez - “However tedious false accusations are no substitute for comment.”
Couldn’t agree more. Not sure any Party has a monopoly though.
114 Thanks for the stats, Sean F, but they were hardly necessary to prove the theory..well…Flaky.
114 Sean. Andrea’s looking to increase the marriage figure at Bromley with err ….. a small figure !!
112. Blue Moon
115,
Very true,
Thats why I made my original comment on this thread.
Viewers and listners should be told if so called expert witnesses to events are declared party supporters, so we can judge their objectivity.
I honestly believe that ex army officer Collins has now crossed the line in that regard.
Sean I can’t remember what the new legislation puts into force but let’s not forget that Straw ended in 1997 the ‘primary purpose rule’ which had clamped down on bogus marriages and no doubt opened the floodgates to the flood of sham marriages which took place over the last ten years. Even so 20,000 people come in from the indian subcontinent each year as spouses. One wonders how many of these are entered into on a completely voluntary basis.
103 Not too many takers, Mike!
Mr Prodi leads not his own party but an ad hoc alliance, with factions who expect the view of the party from whom ministers and mps gain their support to be faithfully represented. Most particularly this is true of socialist and communist factions who see democracy as the imposition of the party line when in power, rather than the exercise of office in the interests of the country as a whole.
D’Alema tried to force the former CP line on relations with the US (over Afghanistan) onto Prodi; Prodi has resigned rather than call for a vote of confidence (which he could have won) possibly because he does not want to remedy a CP error of political judgement and a bad piece of attempted bullying by ‘mandating’ parties of the old left.
The consensus over dinner (in central Tuscany, avidly watching the news broadcasts) this evening is that either Prodi will be asked to try again by President Napolitano and will be able to do so without the distasteful compromises with the left he had to suffer to get the coalition together in the first instance; or Rutelli, who leads the left-leaning part of the old Christian Democrats,will be asked to do more or less the same thing; or, as the centre right is in the middle of a power transfer from Berlusconi (who is on trial currently, apart from iffy health displayed by public collapses) to Fini and unlikely to be able to put together a majority, dissolve the Parliament. The money is on Prodi plus ‘technici’, followed by Rutelli. Not Berlusconi, and not a dissolution unless the first two fail.
Where do you stop though? We should surely need to know then about Paxman, Dimbleby, Humphreys et al (some like Jon Snow are more than obvious as it is). How many of the general public really know about Marr’s leftwards and Robinson’s rightwards leanings?
78. No chance of a fallout here! I enjoy people disagreeing with me.
In terms of my assessments of both electorates, its down to living and talking politics with lots of people in both countries. I think we still have a fair amount of bigotry here, but its mostly at a semi-conscious level. The level of open outright intolerance in the US shocked me. You make fair points about anti-semitism regarding the Muslim community, but that’s what? 2-3% of the population?
But that wasn’t really my point. Mainly it was how distrustful they are of someone who doesn’t buy into the whole religion thing. The poll doesn’t say they would prefer someone to believe in God, but that they simply wouldn’t vote for an *otherwise well-qualified* candidate! That the majority of Americans simply wouldn’t consider someone who based their viewpoints on rationalism rather than faith is something which I think is fair to criticise. I guess its all those decades of swallowing the line that all atheists are communists and anti-American.
86. Roger, I think you are seriously seeing prejudice where it isn’t there. When someone English and right-wing criticises “the Scots” or “the Welsh”, they are meaning those residents of Scotland or Wales that desire more autonomy, there’s nothing ethnic about it. Saying that “the Scots” shouldn’t vote on English laws, for instance, really means anyone sitting for a Scottish seat. I’m sure they have no problem with, say, Malcolm Rifkind. As for comments regarding Muslims, they fall into two categories: (1) Reasonable (not necessarily correct, but reasonable) criticism of Muslim communities, and (2) Thinly-veiled (or not so thinly) bigotry. It can be hard to distinguish sometimes, but I get the feeling that some on the Left always interpret type-1 as type-2. As for gypsies, are you meaning the Roma people, or anyone who is a traveller? I’ve never heard anti-Roma sentiment, although I have heard criticism against travellers. That’s criticism based on behaviour (like, for example, criticising rentiers) - how is that bigotry?
122.”D’Alema tried to force the former CP line on relations with the US (over Afghanistan) onto Prodi; Prodi has resigned rather than call for a vote of confidence (which he could have won) possibly because he does not want to remedy a CP error of political judgement and a bad piece of attempted bullying by ‘mandating’ parties of the old left.”
I havent’ seen any suggestion that he resigned for the reasons you mention
“The consensus over dinner (in central Tuscany, avidly watching the news broadcasts) this evening is that either Prodi will be asked to try again by President Napolitano and will be able to do so without the distasteful compromises with the left”
What “distasteful” compromises are you talking about?
“Rutelli, who leads the left-leaning part of the old Christian Democrats,will be asked to do more or less the same thing”
supported by who? Always the current coalition?
“or, as the centre right is in the middle of a power transfer from Berlusconi (who is on trial currently, apart from iffy health displayed by public collapses) to Fini ”
which is far from clear
122.”Most particularly this is true of socialist and communist factions who see democracy as the imposition of the party line when in power, rather than the exercise of office in the interests of the country as a whole”
Btw, this thing doesn’t make much sense IMO. You almost seem to imply that they don’t have a sense of democracy. If it’s true that Communist parties tend to view that the party line should be followed, so you can voice your opposition, but if you’re the minority within the party, you are expected to vote with the majority in the end. But that doesn’t mean they don’t care about the interests of the country.
119 Not too much of a problem though, is it Dez? I mean, you know the regular posters to take notice of, many of whom remain reasonable and fairly objective despite clear party preferences. Sean F is a good example, but by no means the only one. The fact that he’s a Tory activist dooesn’t prevent him presenting a pretty objective analysis each week.
One-off posters are generally suspect unless they are arguing their case very well. Most one-off posters though are just interested in ranting senselessly without having to justify themselves in any way.
122.”The consensus over dinner (in central Tuscany, avidly watching the news broadcasts) this evening is that either Prodi will be asked to try again by President Napolitano ”
It seems that a good part of CL is keen to the idea of Prodi trying again.
But IMO the problem is always the same: the majority at the Senate would be still very slim and so the government weak
If Prodi wished he could have called for a vote of confidence, and most probably would have won. He didn’t, he resigned straight away. He didn’t like the old CP line on the US (they are unhappy about the confirmation of the enlargement of the US base at Vicenza which Prodi endorsed after Berlusconi had made a reserved agreement with the US). I don’t know what you’re looking at so I don’t know what you might have seen.
Mr Prodi has had to cope with opposition to his fiscal stance, (severe, but Schioppa’s measures have brought Italy into EU line), pension policy (but really why should there be retirees quite so young?) the resistence to a modern fast transport system which links to the trans-European network, Vicenza and US relations are the last straw and he has called their bluff. If they thought they could get a majority for their views they have found that they couldn’t.
No, Rutelli could build a coalition that reaches further into the right.
I’ll try again; Berlusconi is unlikely to be able to command a majority because his coalition is breaking up; Fini is slowly assuming leadership of the right; the northern league is losing strength; Berlusconi is old and starting to show physical signs of it. So they won’t be asked to try to form an administration of Prodi plus technici, and perhaps Rutelli fail. Then there would be a dissolution.
129.” I don’t know what you’re looking at so I don’t know what you might have seen.”
Well, since I live in Italy, I’m fully aware where to look.
O/T - A few weeks ago I posted a news story on here about Lib Dems voting for a BNP councillor to be elected onto a committee.
Lib Dem supporters quickly came out of the woodwork to deny the story and attack me for posting it.
Here’s the latest;
http://politics.guardian.co.uk/farright/story/0,,2018201,00.html
129. And btw, I think you’re confusing the commies line with D’Alema with your “D’Alema tried to force the former CP line on relations with the US (over Afghanistan) onto Prodi”.
Putting them together means ignoring all history of Italian Left in the last 20 years
Mandating parties of the left, often based on formal groupings such as trades unions, co-operatives, etc., or ostensible political wings of such groupings, do have a different understanding of democracy than mass membership parties made up of members with common interests and political stance.
129, I said I don’t know what you’re looking at, not that you don’t know what to look at.
129.”of Prodi plus technici, and perhaps Rutelli ”
supported by which parties in your opinion?
134. hatfild girl, sorry, but I can’t understand it
Brown now moving out on Betfair. Somebody has taken my £400 at 0.25/1. That’s a nice profit - I laid Brown for the same amount on Monday night when the ICM poll came out at 0.2/1.
103. Mike has some mug, sorry punter, taken your £400? Gordon’s lay price now out to 1.26.
137 / 138. You beat me to it!
123,
Uk paul believe those you quote are mainly interviewers and journalists, so indeed it would be intresting to know their political leanings, so you could try to percieve and judge for yourself any political bias.
However I believe more importantly for the general public is to know when the media use expert witnesses in their field, because if they start using partisan comments they have more resonance.
Therefore if they are party supporters we should be told.
This wouldn`t discount their views, but they could be better judged in the context they are made.
So the comment which I heard this afternoon regarding the troop withdrawls “this was all done for Labour Party members”
I would like to know the facts regarding this comment, set against the problems currently on the ground.
It seems to me, to be either flippant in the extreme, or just partisan point scoring , about a very serious situation.
137 Mike S. Shameless profiteer !!
Re Italy.
I think the potential solutions can be (in no particular order):
- dissolution and new elections
- Prodi trying again with the same coalition
- technical government (short-term)
- Prodi (or Rutelli) trying again…trying to get a new coalition (which one?)
hatfild girl, do you have any other outcome to suggest?
re 13/9. The last GB bet matched was my £400 at 0.25/1. I might test something longer - like 0.28/1.
143 Mike S. Legalized theft !!
127,
Peter I totally agree Seanf is a fantastic example of the point I`m trying to make.
He is as you say very fair and balanced in his analysis a credit to himself and his party.
137 Mike, that’s terrible! That’s twenty quid by my reckoning. You should be ashamed of yourself, taking sweets from children.
129 Prodi plus technici supported by the DS (they have no where else to go) , by all the fragments of the former Christian Democrats, even those led by Casini who have opposed Prodi up to now, and the rest of the current Prodi coalition, there may be the loss of some Rifondazione.
If Rutelli were asked to form an administration he would either succeed or lead the coalition to a likely victory in new elections.
What we have just seen is essentially a centre-ground shift to the right.
It could be a mistaken analysis but, as you say ” Se non e’ vero, e’ ben trovato” .
Where you are in Italy ? That could well yield a different response from discussion in what used to be the red belt.
143. Worth a go. There is £800 to back at 1.23/4 that no one is touching, and not much on the lay side. I’ve just put a token amount down at 1.27.