Who’ll be goaded into losing his temper first?
February 21st, 2007
Do both men share the same weakness - having low flash-points?
Politics is going through an appalling period which must be equally frustrating for all the parties. For we know that barring a political earthquake the next election will be the Gordon and Dave show yet even the most experienced observers cannot predict confidently how this will pan out.
This encounter has been on the cards since Cameron’s likely victory in the Tory race became apparent October 2005 and yet it looks as though we might have to wait until October 2007, almost two years on, before the two are facing each other across the chamber at PMQs.
Who’s going to come out on top is hard to predict but a characteristic that both men share is a low threshold level when it comes to losing their tempers. My guess is that both will try to find ways of goading the other to do just that.
We have seen how Cameron can get flustered and be on the point of losing it if put under aggressive questioning in TV interviews - an arena that Brown has studiously avoided for years. By all reports the Chancellor is notoriously sensitive about being criticised and we saw a flash of temper at Treasury questions a month or so ago in response to George Osborne.
At the time I wondered whether Osborne was testing the ground for when Cameron comes in.
For since David Cameron became Tory leader in December 2005 there has been just one occasion when the two have faced each other across the floor of the House of Commons - in the budget debate nearly a year ago when the Tory leader produced his “analogue man in a digital age” sound-bite. But the nature of that occasion meant that Brown was unable to respond.
So who’ll come out best in the battle of the titans. Will Gord be able to dominate Dave in the way he has dealt with successive Shadow Chancellors - or will he prove vulnerable in the very special situation that PMQs provides?
Clearly all parties have been game playing this for months and there’s no point now wasting material or giving your opponents a sense of what you will do before the real action starts.
In my view a big minus for Labour of Gordon getting a coronation is that he won’t be subject to the intense media scrutiny that a hard fought contest would bring. As well as creating massive frustration amongst newspaper and TV journalists, he would miss out on the process of actually running for the job - a good training for the general election.
Thus the losing candidate in the 2005 Tory contest, David Davis, has become a much more formidable politician after going through the process of running.
Mike Smithson
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Why do I get the impression that David Davis appears to be a very relieved man at not getting the Conservative party leadership? If ever there appeared to be someone totally at ease with their lot, it’s him. Mind you, he has a lot of open goals to shoot at at the moment…
Interesting to see how much Gordon is sucking up to the Mail. There’s a gordon article on carers today.
Plus the editorial praises him for his support for carers. And interestingly it says Gordon’s critics say his economic forecasts will be wrong, and he always turns out to be right. Funny old thing politics, eh!
Perhaps, they should be filmed while reading the newspaper. The one who loses it (and starts complaining about Bloody Labour Destroying Britain) loses!
A NuLab immigrant sentenced to 7 years for killing a pregnant mother & 7yr old son…
A NuLab immigrant killed his wife & 4 daughters for being too western
Or Blair to ignore 1.8m Road Petition - remember his NHS Consultation BBC Propaganda Stunt? He asked what should NHS priority be? The answer was care for OAPs. Since then the NHS has been killing OAPs by neglect (much cheaper apparently).
or Loony Left Madness, Lab want to force Rich people to live on Council Estates
or Cool Britannia, things can only get better, British women are the fattest in Europe - and also the most giving and cheerful…
Of course, these are all the ravings of a Right Wing Press with a Reactionary agenda. These are not more reasons to vote against Labour. I shall still vote Labour in the May elections!
My Father voted Labour. My Grandfather Voted Labour and all my local community Vote Labour!!!
3. Have you considered moving?
Can somebody kindly update me on when the next YouGov and Populus polls are out. I know that if I had your book, Mike, I would have the schedule, but your soon to be bestselling book isn’t out til April I don’t think!
“will he (Gordon) prove vulnerable in the very special situation that PMQs provides?”
Yes Mike I think he will. As you say, he can lose his temper, he has a habit of going into hiding whenever there is trouble (which he wont be able to do as PM), and whoever follows a master at PMQ’s like Tony may look a bit rough around the edges at least to begin with. I never watch Treasury questions, but if Osborne can wind him up, then Dave would probably have a field day.
This is why it wouldn’t surprise me if GB modifies PMQ’s, or gets rid of it altogether. One way to modify it might be to have a weekly debate on current issues that would give the opportunity to all party leaders to ask questions of the others. This would give him the chance to challenge Dave on anything he wanted. GB could easily try and market a change in PMQ’s as part of a ‘modernising agenda’.
Time will tell.
I have just poicked up the dummy that “Crash Gordon” threw out his pram in a strop.
Time to change your nappies Gordon
From the appalling hissy fit that Cameron threw at the last budget, it seems that Cameron is more scared of Gordon that many Tories would like to admit.
What hissy fit Redflump? Cameron got over a great sound-bite that people still remember. What can you recall of Brown’s speech? It is how it plays on the bulletins that matters.
Mike Smithson
Who will be goaded into losing his temper first? What price Ming gives Miliband a Glasgow Kiss?
8. Is RedFlump Roger?
He became very shrill and red-faced (or shall I say, even more red-faced?!) The soundbite sounded overpractised and dull. He must have spent ages practising and it showed. He had no real critique against the budget - just a lot of personal scorn against Gordon. So much for ‘no more Punch & Judy’. Even Ming, when he got up after Cameron, said ‘thanks for the constructive response’ or something similar. His own side cheered loudly, but I was just struck by how high pitched and frightened he seemed.
No I am not Roger - just another Labour supporter! There are more than one of us
Its very hard to have a contest for the leadership of a political party and make both contestants grow in stature. Quite unexpectedly—and to their own surprise— the tories managed it last time. When Howard became leader, the tories boasted that they didn’t have a divisive contest…
There are two big plusses to GB for a coronation. During a contest, he’d have to reveal at least some of his plans. That would make it easier for the tories to demolish them later on, when ‘officially’ announced. And how could a labour opponent of GB not point out that he belongs to the past, a byegone era, the Blair years?
Both DC and GB are political pygmies compared to TB. Both seem to have a short fuse. Who’ll deal with his problem the better? It is easier to change at 40 than 57, but it more comfortable to operate with the machinery of govt around your shoulders. A score draw?
But people do grow into the job, don’t they? I am against Cameron and all his works, but I believe he would gain stature if he ever won (God forbid!!!) I believe GB already has that stature after being Chancellor for 10 years (and a very good one to boot!) Experience may be the key here.
I try not to comment on MPs personally since I work with them, so a slightly tangential point: the electorate is interestingly subtle in its reaction to displays of temper. If they think it’s justified, they are rather pleased - viz. the strongly supportive response to Prescott’s punching someone who was trying to throw an egg at him. “He’s human, I’d have done the same”, etc. What irritates people is temper inside the Westminster context, since it’s seen as part of the perceived problem of politicians squabbliing instead of doing the job. For media interviews, I’m not sure, but people who have taken on Paxman have mostly had a rousing cheer from contributors here (me too).
The Mail is the easily the most fascinating newspaper to read at the moment. The house magazine of the Tory Party, it cannot believe that the party, (to which it has given total and slavish support throughout its history) is in the hands of a man that its editor detests so much. What the the Mail will do at the next GE, is any ones guess. I seem to remember on the morning of the Hague election, the Mail led on the Michael Barrymore case.
I see Marcel Berlins, (Guardian) is recommending a wager on Bayrou, to be the next President of France could be a good bet.
I always remember when Paxo was having a go at Frank Dobson about some Doctor who was just banned from operating on under 18 year olds. “Don’t you think this is a nonsensical verdict from the GMC?”
Dobbo replied, “Yes, I do.”
Paxo, “Don’t you think he should have been struck off?”
Dobbo: “yes, it was a ridiculous verdict and I wouldn’t want anybody to have to be operated on by him”
You could see Paxo just deflate - he thought he would be in with a ding-dong with the Sec of State for Health, but Dobbo just took the wind right out of his sails! He was really floundering!
[3] In what sense is a man who came to this country in 1990 (your Daily Torygraph story) a “NuLab immigrant”?
[6] Is PMQs a Good Thing? AIUI every PM wishes (s)he’d scrapped it, even tho’ it’s said to be loaded in the PM’s favour and against the Leader of the Opposition.
12. And how much damage did that response do Cameron? Probably very little whatsoever. It’s remembered more for the “analogue chancellor” comment than any putdown by Ming afterwards. And this shows how David Cameron controls the media agenda at the moment, arguably far more successfuly at present than spinmeisters Labour.
I’m not saying it was a great response (it was rather weak) but it’s the soundbite that’s stuck and that was probably Dave’s plan all along. Can you imagine Gordon coming up with a good political soundbite on the floor of the house at PMQs?
The one way I think Gordon could come across well at PMQs is if he gives more straight answers than his predecessor. That could give him the image of a no-nonsense, straight-talking Prime Minister that could then work to his advantage after these 10 years of ” “under our government unemployment has reduced by x, inflation is low, crime is down by x, violent crime is down by x, waiting times are down by x” as a response to every single Tory question put to Blair.
Mike, Thanks for the article. I agree. Firstly it is a strange phoney war right now. Second, yes it looks like both could lose their tempers but my money is on Brown losing it first, because I suspect the competition and scrutiny thus far for Cameron has hardened him. Gordon has not had to run, so has not had taht experiance.
I also agree about David Davis. He has improved too, and taken more scalps than he had in 2005.
Looks like an interesting year ahead.
That’s just the point – he didn’t come up with it ‘on the floor of the House’. It was well rehearsed and terribly clunky. It was a soundbite of sorts, but just not very good. And actually the most effective soundbite generated since DC became leader of the Tories is Labour’s: ‘Hug a Hoodie’. Not that it has done Labour much good mind.
20. However, in part answering my own question, I don’t think Brown will give straight answers, because he’s obsessed with figures. I realise heading the treasury is a figure-heavy job, but you get the feeling he’ll never detach himself from it very well.
I could be completely wrong, of course.
22. Well you say the soundbite has been effective, but you then concede it hasn’t done them much good. So hence it hasn’t been that effective, has it?
I would argue the “Clunking Fist” comment was also another very prominant one. That’s backfired.
The bench mark in the “great dispatch box debate” was the last Queen’s speech. Cameron did a quite good, heavily scripted reply that had John Piennar purring with approval on the radio. Blair then did not just trounce him, he took on the whole of Tory benches. He accepted 90% of their interruptions and just dealt with them. It was virtuoso barrister stuff
The trouble is that I doubt if Big Gordie will have the patience or wit to do what Blair did. He’d be advised to change the PMQ format
Oh I don’t know -I think Labour supporters quite enjoy the image actually!
25. Yes, the opening remarks by Blair in his response to Cameron were excellent. Totally unscripted and straight to the heart of the matter.
17 - I fear you do not know the history of the Daly Mail. It was once the house mag of the Liberal Party. There were valid arguments that the Mail helped elect Harold Wilson in 1964 (the Bernard Levin column in particualr). Certainly it was the Mail front page story and poll indicating that the Libs could win Orpington, which caused the Lib agent (Pratap Chitnis) to distribute copies of the paper at Orpington Station.
Then,of course, the Sun was once the Daly Herald !
25 - I know that Mike has muted that Gordon would think about a change to PMQ’s… I don’t know how it would go down, but I’d have thought that Gordon would like the idea of ‘Cabinet Questions’ rather than PMQ’s and thus get everybody else to have to answer Cameron’s questions. No idea if this is plausible, or how it would go down, but a thought…
Come on let’s face it - PMQs is not going to change. GB is more than capable of taking on Cameron.
By the time that Gordon Brown finally steps up for his first PMQ’s David Cameron will have been shadow leader for two years. I think that there are jitters on his own backbenches about his ability to take on Cameron on a weekly basis when he cannot “control” the agenda or the questions he stands up and answer’s.
Without a leadership contest to prove his mettle by going up against an opponent/s on head to head debates or doing tough one to one interviews with Paxman/Neil, Labour are in effect taking a gamble on Brown’s ability which in the run to a 4th GE seems incredible.
Annual pre budget/budget speeches don’t count because you have months to plan and organise them, and you are up against a politician who must respond just a few hours after being given one of Brown’s carefully crafted works of fiction. If Brown becomes PM by coronation he is in effect a totally untested leader who will have circumvented all the usually scrutiny, which in this day and age is incredible.
I will be looking to see the first time he “contrives” to be unavailable for PMQ’s if the headlines are particularly bad for Labour that week.
29. Would lead him open to even bigger charges of being chicken.
Is “RedFlump” what I believe is called an “astroturfer”?
32 - Which could be countered with ‘This will enable the person closest to the question to be able to respond - leading to better and more accurate information being passed to the house. Mine will be a government that is run as a cabinet led democracy, not some faux dictatorship’ Yes, obviously that would be the charge levelled, but then similar charges were levelled at Blair when he changed the format when he first got in and no nobody really thinks about it.
What is an ‘astroturfer’? Someone who doesn’t go with the pro-Tory orthodoxy apparently!
Ruth Turner interviewed by the police again, it seems
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/6381961.stm
36. Tsk tsk - troops out of Iraq (well 5% of them) - another good day to bury bad news ?
33. I wouldn’t have thought so…..snowflake on the other hand….
34. You are assuming that GB would have a cabinet though ? I guess he might have one for show - a bit like 20 Prezzas ?
36. Augustus, must admit that I had a bet with my other half last night that the timing of the troop withdrawal announcement, leaked to the media was in response to a further development in the “Cash for honours” enquiry which would be slipped out today.
It was just too soon after Blair argued against a set timetable, and I don’t think it was done for Brown’s benefit in the lead up to his coronation.
As I said last night, it would not have been timed or coordinated for the benefit of the troops, but rather for political expediency. What a shameful government we have, I fail to be surprised any more at their behaviour and the way they are even prepared to use the soldiers on the ground in Iraq to bury bad news.
The troops are not being used to ‘bury bad news’ - what nonsense! Some of you will twist any event to suit your own agenda. This has been in the pipeline for weeks.
33. Well he does seem to be reading from the same crib cards as several of the other ‘grassroots’ (chuckle) Labour posters.
Oh come on girls! Just shows that we are a united party!
41.”Some of you will twist any event to suit your own agenda.” Redflump, I think that the irony of that statement in light of this governments track record on news management is laughable.
Ha!! Thought you’d suss me out!
Some of you are pretty good spinners yourselves.
Chris D, what should they do - get permission from the Electoral Commission before they move troops in or out of anywhere?
“Oh no, Ruth’s been interviewed again! I know - let’s withdraw some troops from Iraq!” Come on people! I know we should all be cynical, but this is ridiculous.
45. Not bad for mere amateurs, you mean?
33. Intersting that so far all the Tory posters think Cameron will out-soundbite Gordon and the Labour supporters think Gordon will out soundbite Dave. (And of course the usual screwballs like Barry who want to talk about new playing surfaces).
For what it’s worth as Mike points out I remember Brown demolishing every shadow chancellor who was put up against him not least Osbourne who in my opinion on their first encounter looked like a schoolboy facing the head.
As many consider Osbourne the weakest link that probably wasn’t a good pointer. A better one was the damage he did to Portillo. Portillo in my opinion was at least as good a performer as Cameron and unlike Cameron he could think on his feet and probably even wrote his own scripts.
Have to say the return of politics that matters - ie when the result is in doubt - has to be a good thing. If Labour are to continue in office, they have to earn it now. Brown has to show that he deserves to be elected as PM. I think that has to be beneficial for the country and the whole of politics
46.Innocent abroad, just rewind a couple weeks and look at what Blair said regarding a set troop withdrawal. I want the soldiers home from Iraq, but I want it done with the military in charge of the details and having an input in how it is managed in the media. I hope that this does not increase attacks on our troops, or that telling the insurgents when/how many troops will be left in Basra over the coming months is a mistake.
50. Quite. It is a good thing all round that the opposition have got their act together at last. Makes the government raise its game.
On the withdrawal of troops from Iraq, didn’t Anatole Kaletsky in ‘The Times’ say that this should be Gordon Brown’s masterstroke when he becomes PM (on a par with his decision to grant BOE independence)? Apparently it would delight the anti-Iraq War voters of middle England while fatally undermining Cameron: if Dave supported the policy it would alienate the neo-con Tories; reject it and he looses favour with the populace at large. I wonder if Tony thought this too and has chosen to rid Gordon of his secret weapon.
49. Rog, I don’t think that GB demolished Michael Howard. Wasn’t one of the reasons that Howard ended up with the leadership (apart from IDS being cr@p) is that he was viewed as a good Commons performer against GB.
I kind of agree with you (shock horror), that Shadow Chancellor is not the best place for Osborne. Some sort of wider strategy role might better suit him.
I think the idea that troops were removed from Iraq to overshadow the story that Ruth Turner was interviewed again is the sort of post we associate with Mystic Moon/Printz! From Chris D it is very surprising.
49. If you describe “demolishing” as completely ignoring the question and blaring out tractor production figures then Gordo has won every debate he has ever been in.
46″get permission from the Electoral Commission before they move troops in or out of anywhere?”. I find it too much of a coincidence that this news was so blatantly trailed to the media last night before an announcement in the HoC today, when the news that Ruth Turner was spoken to again by police would also come out today!
Re 49, Roger, Cameron and Osbourne wrote Michael Howards scripts.
Well, calling Gordon silly schoolboy names is not going to ‘beat’ him either.
59. Like a “great clunking fist” perhaps ?
Mr Smithson, could we please have a list of “astroturfers”?
Perhaps it would be better if non-Tories didn’t post at all and leave the rest of you in your DC masturbatory fantasies?
52. Proof that Redflump is not Roger “Quite. It is a good thing all round that the opposition have got their act together at last. Makes the government raise its game.”
Normally I’d quite agree with you but it’s not true of this Government.
We got our act together a year ago whereas the Government, far from ‘raising their game’ have become paralysed with internal wrangling, mired in a police enquiry and have lost 20% of the support they had in the 2005 election.
Harriet Harman looks set to revive the nanny state. The other week we had Peter Hain throwing around TV licenses for poor people and now dear Harriet wants the state to pay for Christmas presents and summer treats for the less well off:
Parents could be given more help by the Government, a candidate for Labour’s deputy leadership will say today.
Harriet Harman will tell the annual general meeting of the North Peckham Tenants and Residents Association that this could involve grants to help pay for the extra costs of Christmas and the summer.
Ms Harman will say: “We know that it’s important for families to spend time together during the school summer holidays and at Christmas and other winter religious festivals.”
“We know that planning that time together and spending that time and doing things together is important for parents and children alike.
“But for families for whom benefits and tax credits are an important source of income, saving for the expense of the summer and Christmas is expensive and risky.”
And she will add: “We must think about how we can help low income families with the expenses of those occasions which are important to families.
“What about Family Summer Grants and Christmas Family Grants for low income families? These could be similar to the annual Winter Fuel Payments for pensioners.”
An utter disgrace. Whatever happened to the socialist concept of self-help? Locking poor people into a dependency culture and on the payroll of the state will not help anyone.
Re Michael Howard & Gordon Brown. In 2003 Howard was named “Parliamentarian of the Year” for his performance as Shadow Chancellor.
http://www.zurich.co.uk/home/pressmedia/News/2003/howard_wins_2003_zurich_spectator_parlimentarian_of_the_year.htm
64. I bet the North Peckham Tenants and Residents Association have never had so much publicity! Well she has to do something now that Hazel Blears looks likely to stand. Just saying ‘vote for me, I’m a woman’ won’t cut it anymore.
Still, this all looks and feels a bit hypocritical when you remember that she was the minister that cut lone parent benefit, affecting those disproportionately less well off.
Re 65, Mike, yes and it should be remembered that Howard when leader had a lot of help from Cameron and Osbourne.
67. Yes, especially with that ‘liberal conservative’ manifesto, eh?
Thus the losing candidate in the 2005 Tory contest, David Davis, has become a much more formidable politician after going through the process of running.
Hmm. I rate DD very highly, but I agree with this comment from David Aaronovitch in The Times last week:
“There is no rule whatsoever that the winner in these contests has to be magnanimous towards the loser. Don’t be fooled by what hasn’t yet happened to David Davis.
65,67 Didn’t do him any good at all in the end though.
It’s easy to be parliamentarian of the year if you are in the opposition. Much sexier to ask good questions than to give good detailed answers (most of which are done in writing).
62. Ah, shading into abuse as normal now.
Re 68, Redflump, you really do need to learn the difference between someone who writes a document and someone who decides what goes into it.
The buses round here are full of posters exhorting passengers not to spend all their money on Christmas but to save some to pay rent and council tax.
[51] Chris D, I suggest you try to distinguish between the movement of troops and the announcement of that movement. The former is a military, the latter a political matter.
Apologies if you found that abusive. I always want to keep things light and jolly.
I don’t know whether the ‘Barry’ at 61 is the same Barry who is standing for Parliament in Bedford. If it is he’ll have to seriously raise his game!
I always thought “astroturfers” was the name of Lembit Opik’s gardening company !!
……..astroturf may be the big issue in Bedford but the rest of us expect a wider vision from our MP’s!
For those of an Obama bent ….. including moi :
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/6381375.stm
78 Roger. They talk of little else in Bedford than tarting up their front lawns ….. ask Mike Smithson, who is well known for his neatly tended borders and well cut bar chart grass !
79. Those backers surely guarantee his failure, don’t they?
btw. Jack…would you be able to converse with these fellows?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2007/02/21/ndialect21.xml
re 81. Aren’t those pictures of Jack’s sons?
Does Cameron sound a bit like Howard today in PMQs? or is it just me
In that Blair has just made him sound foolish?
84. no just in his intonation….but point taken
81 Scallywag. Fine fellows …. but no I fear both sides would struggle to understand each other.
82 Mike S.
…. no, far too youthful.
66.”Well she has to do something now that Hazel Blears looks likely to stand. Just saying ‘vote for me, I’m a woman’ won’t cut it anymore. ”
well, she can do the “Vote for me, I’m a woman and I smile less than the other one” line
I know that it’s wrong to blame one spouse for the actions of another, but surely the average Nu-Lab Member will realise that if they elect Harriet Harman there will be wall-to-wall coverage of Jack Dromey, the glory days of the TGWU and the Grunwick Picket Line? Her election will enable Cameron and his advisers to play on all the atavistic Tory fears without having to say or do anything - the Press will do it all for them.
This woman has got “previous” and her hubby will be a political liability. Surely everyone can see this?
89. Dromey will probably lose his job if Amicus and the TGWU merge - he’s not that popular with the left (who think he’s a careerist) or the right (who are annoyed in the way he spilled the beans on the loans issue) within the union.
89. “I know that it’s wrong to blame one spouse for the actions of another, but surely the average Nu-Lab Member will realise that if they elect Harriet Harman there will be wall-to-wall coverage of Jack Dromey, the glory days of the TGWU and the Grunwick Picket Line?”
Harriet has the endorsement of Jayaben Desai (one of the main figures in the Grunwick strikes)
89. As a Tory, I would be very happy to see Hain or Harman elected. Hain’s Aga comments recently were quite outstanding
92. Which Aga comments JJ?
93 HenryG. Apparently Hain indicated that the Aga Khan would lend Hain support by placing some of his race horses at Hain’s disposal so Hain wouldn’t have to get off his high horse too often !
94. Oh well that’s ok. I was half fearing a ‘free stoves for council house tenants’ pledge!
OT. I understand that a new poll for CSA published this morning has Royal narrowing the gap to Sarkozy to 2 points.
92. But he keeps them just for fun, for a laugh…
96. Jack, yes. It’s in “Le Parisien”
74.”Chris D, I suggest you try to distinguish between the movement of troops and the announcement of that movement. The former is a military, the latter a political matter.” IA, I think we are talking at cross purposes here. In a situation like this you cannot separate the two issues, this has to be done carefully and with an eye to the safety of the troops out there, rather than the domestic agenda of the present Labour government at home.
Back at the start of the conflict in Iraq our troops were sent out to do a mission without adequate and appropriate equipment in place. This was because the government did not want to be seen to be preparing for a war which had not been voted in the HoC.
I am reminded of the way the the government announced the troop deployment to Afghanistan last year and the way that the media were denied access to the troops on the ground for so long. I am sorry but this government might have done well to listen to the military rather more than their press office. After all we have asked the troops to do in the last few years, lets put them first for a change.
96/98 http://www.csa-fr.com/dataset/data2007/opi20070220a-intentions-de-vote-a-l-election-presidentielle-de-2007-vague-16.htm
98/100 Andrea. And Bayrou polling 17% !
52- I think the benevolant conditions for opposition over the last 2 years would have led to a donkey leading the Tories having sustained opinion polls. A third term mired by a leadership black hole, failed coups, corruption scandals, a devestating foreign policy, home office failures, sexual scandal, health funding failures, and the LD’s committing virtual hari kari.
To be honest comparing Brown to Cameron is pretty silly- one is a towering heavyweight who has dominated politics in this country for 15 years, the other an elistist partyboy, who has spent most of his adult life in non jobs, living off the silver spoon that was firmly planted in his mouth at birth.
Outside Tory activists (and Labour paranoia) I do not think that sensible opinion gives Cameron a hope in hell really against Brown. Kind of touching though that the Tory activists on this site are so deluded- poor things.
102. All the bookmakers in the country are not sensible ? I should imagine you are putting your mortgage on Lab to win the next election then ???
102. Next week on ‘view from the bunker’, an underemployed public sector worker from Oxford explains how Watford are, in fact, the real favourites for this year’s premiership.
93. he did a piece for “aga monthly” or some other obscure magazine about his home. the piece has since been taken down from the websote but is webcached here.
http://64.233.183.104/search?q=cache:SwsBfu1LlF4J:www.agawestend.co.uk/47_218.htm+agawestend+%40+home&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=2&gl=uk
his house has a dancefloor and he is quoted as saying
“At first I was a bit sceptical about the Aga, I thought it was a great big lump. But now I actually think it’s fantastic. We found food cooked on the electric cooker tasted very second class.”
I’m sure Labour members will agree with his sentiments!
105. Please stop it! I’m laughing so much it hurts. I’m sorry Nick P, but how on Earth can you back Peter Hain? You strike me as much more a Hilary Benn man in approach and politics. Did you back Peter before Hilary had declared?
105. Why does he sometimes give the impression of being totally out of his depth? (same thing in the Mail interview)
Btw, according to the Indy, when Mme Dominatrix called Alan Simpson in her office to reprimand him later last year, he apparently went there and he told her that he thinks that the whole Cabinet is guilty of war crimes and the whole of the leadership should be referred to the international criminal courts for a war crime. So Mme Dominatrix told him he was being “unhelpful”.
107. The article says:
‘…providing evidence of the energy and deeply held convictions of one of Britain’s most colourful and respected politicians.’
Well, half right.
re 102. I think that it is very hard to draw any conclusion whatsoever about a GB-DC clash. If Brown had had a record of facing grillings on his policies and had come out well then, yes, you would be right. He’s like a race-horse that will be first time out in the Derby. It might have done well in training but until it actually takes part in a race nobody knows.
What we do know is that when Gordon has strayed away from Treasury issues, like last week’s statement on the World Cup, he has sounded far from convincing.
108. Referring to the perma-tan I assume? I wonder if he gets that by crouching in front of the roasting oven on the aga for long periods.
108. well, the tan can keep him colorful forever
OT. Denmark is to reduce their troops in Iraq from 460 to 9 by August.
Re. GB etc. again, do people really get paid for writing this kind of cut and paste rehash?
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/story/0,,2017685,00.html
112. What have those 9 done to merit being left behind?!
113 Scallywag. Yes.
114 HenryG. They are part of the 11th Danish Bacon Regiment providing sizzling sarnies to British troops.
116. You’re making me hungry.
France: As I predicted on Monday, Royal got a bounce from the TV show, although I must admit it was a bit stronger than I expected, and I expected most of it to come from Bayrou, and not Sarkozy. You can look at this as a Sarko buying opportunity (I do), or as heralding a turning point in the campaign.
My guess, undoubtly coloured by my betting position, is that polls in a few days will revert to a 6 points Sarkozy lead.
William Hills have cut Alan Johnson further and have now made him their 3/1 joint favourite with Hilary Benn for next deputy (he was 6/1 a few weeks ago). Jon Cruddas is next at 9/2, followed by Hain and Harman at 8s and Blears at 10s.
116. Is to guard against a “Wacht am Rind” counter-offensive ?
119. I still think Johnson should be shorter, between evens and 2s.
120. The Danes of course sent all their best fighting men over here a thousand years ago.
OT. Italian government just lost a vote in the Senato about their foreign policy (Afghanistan)….so the end of the government can be soon…
122. Are you forgetting Peter Schmeicel who came to plunder our Strictly Come Dancing trophy ?
US: New and interesting poll:
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1284.xml?ReleaseID=1019&What=&strArea=;&strTime=0
Shows Giuliani very strong against all contenders, and also McCain leading Clinton 46:44. Both men are attracting a significant proportion of Democrats, but even more important, is leading 55:35 and 50:35 respectively among the key Independent group.
My guess is that if Republican primary voters think McCain can win, they would prefer him to Giuliani, but if Rudy seems the be their only hope, they would easily forgive him is liberal views on abortion, gun control and civil unions.
125. Thanks Jan. I think Guiliani would have an excellent chance running against Hillary Clinton. A clear break from the dynasties.
123. Andrea, how precarious is the governments position in Italy just now in general?
John Reid now joint second favourite to be next Labour leader with Miliband on betfair - both at 19s.
I fear bringing Pot and Kettle out from under her stone but my favourite restaurateur in Villefranche told me a while ago that Royal would win. He had no inside knowledge but “thinks so”! Not much of a recommendation but I’m glad that a poll at last makes it sufficiently possible that I can quote him without sounding like an impressionable fool!
Brown V Cameron. It looks like the health Service is getting into the black at just the right time (to-day’s Guardian) and within a year or two it should be showing major improvements. And as of this morning we know our troops will be out of Iraq within a year and a half.
I think Gordon’s performance-like Cameron’s-will depend on the cards they have in front of them. It looks like a lot of things are going to come right for Gordon at exactly the right time and Gordon with good news is never undersold!
Dave by contrast is due some bad luck. It happens to everyone. Those who believe his edifice is built on sand will expect a serious collapse. I don’t. I think he’ll revert to the core vote strategy that all Tory leaders have done since Major.
So yet another Italian government is on the brink of falling. Don’t people get fed up, Andrea?
127. Chris, very precarious!
If I were them, I would just resign and do new elections this spring along with the locals. What’s the point on going on if every bill can risk to be defeated?
125. The poll also shows that Clinton is quite a divisive character. Very interesting.
American voters give Giuliani a 57 - 21 percent favorability rating. Favorability ratings for other contenders are:
46 - 45 percent for Clinton;
51 - 22 percent for McCain;
44 - 14 percent for Obama, with 40 percent who haven’t heard enough to form an opinion;
44 - 27 percent for Edwards;
44 - 47 percent for Gore;
22 - 47 percent for Gingrich;
For Romney, 67 percent haven’t heard enough to form an opinion.
131. I did not realise how much difficult they were in, does this mean that we might get another exciting night of Italian politics in the near future?
133. Chris. 2 Communists didn’t vote and the majority went away….
130 Matt1. Be careful !! …. anyone discouraging general elections on this site gets banned.
[125][132] I wonder. I think that a lot of the Republican base in the South and the mid-West would rather lose than win with a RINO - which is, surely, what Giuliani is to them. They might also think that any Democrat would be a one-term President, and that they would do better to focus on getting a mid-term landslide (as in 1994) as a launching-pad for a “real” Republican in 2012.
134 Andrea. So the reds under the bed couldn’t be bothered to get out of same !!
Andrea - re Italy - if there were elections, what would be the likely outcome - as close as last time (in which case not really much point) or a decisive result one way or the other. (No idea what Italian polls are saying at the moment…)
Just in case any one is interested I have Fisked Tony Blair’s response to the ID card petition on my blog which is here:
http://aconservatives.blogspot.com/
RINO? Should we guess?
140 - Republican In Name Only = RINO
Andrea
Please no….The thought of a Berlusconi return- and I was so enjoying my time in Italy without his government.
104- the sign of a good manager is to delegate- that way you have happy productive sub managers and staff, an efficient, well run service and a bit of time to look at the odd website to express your political tribal leanings
136. It might be so, but those are the same people that really hates Hillary, which can balance their tepid resonse to Rudy. Besides - Rudy is not a pure RINO of the Rockefeller kind. He is a strong conservative on defence, security, law and order and foreign policy. This is the man who cleaned up New York! That counts for something even in South Carolina and Nevada. His economic policy, although a bit murky, seems to be somewhere in the middle of the party.
My betting book is neutral on Rudy as candidate, but I have put quite a bit on him as President. The primaries are his main stumbling block (as well as his bad temper).
137. Jack, it’s not that they didn’t bother…they were there and they didn’t vote on purpose because they were disagreeing
Thanks Lennon. I was up to Repulsive……
144 Andrea.
… put two communists in a room !!
144. Andrea, don’t they realise that is only a luxury for people like Bob Marshall Andrews when his party has a big majority?
138. Lennon, I think polls are showing CR around 6% ahead now.
Not sure how it’ll play at the Senate where seats are assigned at regional level
146. Jack, it’s not clear if they’re still alive…
144 - Sorry, do you mean they were disagreeing with the majority of the CL, or disagreeing with each other (as Jack seems to imply at 146).
And thanks for the poll info - would suggest that Prodi is better to hang on and get nothing done, then let Berlusconi in and lose it all…
102-Tyson
‘To be honest comparing Brown to Cameron is pretty silly- one is a towering heavyweight who has dominated politics in this country for 15 years, the other an elistist partyboy, who has spent most of his adult life in non jobs, living off the silver spoon that was firmly planted in his mouth at birth.’
Can you please remind us of the ‘real world’ job Gordo the ‘towering heavyweight’ had before entering politics?
Mystifying that the polls keep on showing Gordo as a featherweight in terms of electoral appeal!
150. The 2 Communists were disagreeing with the rest of CL…ah, they’re not from the same party, but from 2 different Communist parties….
The e-petition asking the Prime Minister to “Scrap the planned vehicle tracking and road pricing policy” has now closed. This is a response from the Prime Minister, Tony Bliar.
Thank you for taking the time to register your views about road pricing on the Downing Street website.
This petition was posted shortly before we published the Eddington Study, an independent review of Britain’s transport network. This study set out long-term challenges and options for our transport network.
It made clear that congestion is a major problem to which there is no easy answer. One aspect of the study was highlighting how road pricing could provide a solution to these problems and that advances in technology put these plans within our reach. Of course it would be ten years or more before any national scheme was technologically, never mind politically, feasible.
That is the backdrop to this issue. As my response makes clear, this is not about imposing “stealth taxes” or introducing “Big Brother” surveillance. This is a complex subject, which cannot be resolved without a thorough investigation of all the options, combined with a full and frank debate about the choices we face at a local and national level. That’s why I hope this detailed response will address your concerns and set out how we intend to take this issue forward. I see this email as the beginning, not the end of the debate, and the links below provide an opportunity for you to take it further.
But let me be clear straight away: we have not made any decision about national road pricing. Indeed we are simply not yet in a position to do so. We are, for now, working with some local authorities that are interested in establishing local schemes to help address local congestion problems. Pricing is not being forced on any area, but any schemes would teach us more about how road pricing would work and inform decisions on a national scheme. And funds raised from these local schemes will be used to improve transport in those areas.
One thing I suspect we can all agree is that congestion is bad. It’s bad for business because it disrupts the delivery of goods and services. It affects people’s quality of life. And it is bad for the environment. That is why tackling congestion is a key priority for any Government.
Congestion is predicted to increase by 25% by 2015. This is being driven by economic prosperity. There are 6 million more vehicles on the road now than in 1997, and predictions are that this trend will continue.
Part of the solution is to improve public transport, and to make the most of the existing road network. We have more than doubled investment since 1997, spending £2.5 billion this year on buses and over £4 billion on trains - helping to explain why more people are using them than for decades. And we’re committed to sustaining this investment, with over £140 billion of investment planned between now and 2015. We’re also putting a great deal of effort into improving traffic flows - for example, over 1000 Highways Agency Traffic Officers now help to keep motorway traffic moving.
But all the evidence shows that improving public transport and tackling traffic bottlenecks will not by themselves prevent congestion getting worse. So we have a difficult choice to make about how we tackle the expected increase in congestion. This is a challenge that all political leaders have to face up to, and not just in the UK. For example, road pricing schemes are already in operation in Italy, Norway and Singapore, and others, such as the Netherlands, are developing schemes. Towns and cities across the world are looking at road pricing as a means of addressing congestion.
One option would be to allow congestion to grow unchecked. Given the forecast growth in traffic, doing nothing would mean that journeys within and between cities would take longer, and be less reliable. I think that would be bad for businesses, individuals and the environment. And the costs on us all will be real - congestion could cost an extra £22 billion in wasted time in England by 2025, of which £10-12 billion would be the direct cost on businesses.
A second option would be to try to build our way out of congestion. We could, of course, add new lanes to our motorways, widen roads in our congested city centres, and build new routes across the countryside. Certainly in some places new capacity will be part of the story. That is why we are widening the M25, M1 and M62. But I think people agree that we cannot simply build more and more roads, particularly when the evidence suggests that traffic quickly grows to fill any new capacity.
Tackling congestion in this way would also be extremely costly, requiring substantial sums to be diverted from other services such as education and health, or increases in taxes. If I tell you that one mile of new motorway costs as much as £30m, you’ll have an idea of the sums this approach would entail.
That is why I believe that at least we need to explore the contribution road pricing can make to tackling congestion. It would not be in anyone’s interests, especially those of motorists, to slam the door shut on road pricing without exploring it further.
It has been calculated that a national scheme - as part of a wider package of measures - could cut congestion significantly through small changes in our overall travel patterns. But any technology used would have to give definite guarantees about privacy being protected - as it should be. Existing technologies, such as mobile phones and pay-as-you-drive insurance schemes, may well be able to play a role here, by ensuring that the Government doesn’t hold information about where vehicles have been. But there may also be opportunities presented by developments in new technology. Just as new medical technology is changing the NHS, so there will be changes in the transport sector. Our aim is to relieve traffic jams, not create a “Big Brother” society.
I know many people’s biggest worry about road pricing is that it will be a “stealth tax” on motorists. It won’t. Road pricing is about tackling congestion.
Clearly if we decided to move towards a system of national road pricing, there could be a case for moving away from the current system of motoring taxation. This could mean that those who use their car less, or can travel at less congested times, in less congested areas, for example in rural areas, would benefit from lower motoring costs overall. Those who travel longer distances at peak times and in more congested areas would pay more. But those are decisions for the future. At this stage, when no firm decision has been taken as to whether we will move towards a national scheme, stories about possible costs are simply not credible, since they depend on so many variables yet to be investigated, never mind decided.
Before we take any decisions about a national pricing scheme, we know that we have to have a system that works. A system that respects our privacy as individuals. A system that is fair. I fully accept that we don’t have all the answers yet. That is why we are not rushing headlong into a national road pricing scheme. Before we take any decisions there would be further consultations. The public will, of course, have their say, as will Parliament.
We want to continue this debate, so that we can build a consensus around the best way to reduce congestion, protect the environment and support our businesses. If you want to find out more, please visit the attached links to more detailed information, and which also give opportunities to engage in further debate.
Yours sincerely,
Tony Bliar
Further information
Both the 10 Downing Street and Department for Transport websites offer much more information about road pricing
153. Lennon, yes, we have:
Communist Refoundation Party: 41 MPs at the House of Deputies, including the Speaker of the House, 27 Senators, 1 Cabinet Minister and 5 MEPs
Party of Italian Communists: 16 MPs at the House of Deputies, 5 Senators, 1 Cabinet Minister and 2 MEPs
Then they’ve some under-secretaries…I’m too lazy to count them
155 Which lot are the “splitters”?