Sean Fear’s Friday slot
February 23rd, 2007
Can Labour Retain the North Kent Marginals?
One of the funniest sights at the last election was watching Bob Marshall-Andrews conceding defeat in Medway, only to find out later that he’d retained the seat by 223 votes. This set the pattern in North Kent, as Labour managed to cling on to the marginal seats of Chatham & Aylesford, Sittingbourne & Sheppey, Gillingham, Dartford, and, of course, Medway.
In four of these seats, the Labour majority was less than a thousand. Paradoxically, their safest seat in the area, Gravesham, was lost. Up till then, Gravesham had voted for the winner in every general election since 1951. Although the average rise in the Conservative share in these six seat, 2.3%, compared favourably with the national average, 0.5%, it wasn’t quite enough to win them.
Historically, the Thames Estuary has always been hotly contested by Labour and the Conservatives, save for Gillingham, which was thought to be safely Conservative up until the earthquake of 1997.
While all these seats have prosperous, and rural, areas that provide a reliable Conservative vote, they also much more working class and industrial than the typical Home Counties constituency, which generates a solid Labour vote.
It is no surprise that these seats are so fiercely disputed by the big two parties, or that the Liberal Democrats perform very poorly in this area.
My guess is that David Cameron’s brand of liberal Conservatism will prove less popular here than in, say, Central London. As against that, it would take only a very slight swing to deprive Labour of all but one of the seats it is defending here.
Boundary changes marginally favour the Conservatives here. Anthony Wells projects that both Sittingbourne & Sheppey, and Gillingham, would both move into the Conservative column by tiny margins (although Rallings & Thrasher believe Gillingham remains Labour). In Dartford, the Labour majority is reduced by a fraction, to 583. Rochester & Strood (as Medway is renamed) moves quite strongly to the Conservatives, who are projected to have a 1,500 majority, while Chatham & Aylesford moves decisively to Labour, whose majority rises to 4,800. Gravesham sees its small Conservative majority unchanged.
In general, these seats tend to vote for the winning party in the general election. However, the Conservatives could now win all the seats apart from Chatham & Aylesford, and not come close to winning the election. If however, they do take that seat in addition, which has a percentage Labour majority of 12% now, then they will, in all likelihood, have won an overall majority.
There were two by-elections last night:-
Cumbria CC – Castle: Lib Dem 653, Labour 222, Conservative 117, Green 29. Lib Dem hold. This was a strong performance for the Lib Dems, and a very poor one for Labour, who ran them close in 2005.
Calderdale MBC: Illingworth & Mixenden. Labour 1,104, BNP 1,034, Conservative 525, Lib Dem. 150, Independent: 68. Labour hold. As expected, this provided the night’s excitement. Labour pulled out all the stops to hold this seat, and had great success in persuading enough voters to back them to stop the BNP from winning. This was similar to the outcomes in the Keighley West by-election, last year, and Barking & Dagenham, Village, in 2004, where very strong BNP challenges were kept at bay by tactical voting for the Labour candidate. It is, however, debateable whether the same tactic will work in all out council elections, particularly as Labour will be seeking to defend 3,000 seats in May, compared to a handful being defended by the BNP. Also notable is the fact that after one of their councillors was found guilty of housing benefit fraud, and one of their local activists was found guilty of sending hate mail to Muslims, the BNP should still have increased their vote share, marginally, to 36%.
Sean Fear is a London Tory activist
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…..and a poor result for the Tories in Carlisle too. Down 4.5%.
1 - Perhaps poor for the Conservative Party but not poor for the Conservative voters - they got exactly what they wanted. A non-Labour win.
I think that the significance of that result (and several other recent ones) is that an increasing number of Conservative leaning voters are now prepared to engage in tactical voting (or negative voting, as I call it) in order to keep Labour at bay.
This development is obviously very good news for the Liberal Democrats and very bad news for Labour.
I’ve long held the view that the next GE is basically going to be a Labour v non-Labour contest (in much the same way that the last few GEs were Conservative v non-Conservative contests).
2. It is conceivable that the next general election will be a Labour v non-Labour contest as you say but I think it is more likely to be a more traditional 2 party fight of Labour v Conservative with the Lib Dems more to the margins. I think we need to remember that we are currently in political limbo as everyone, voters included, are awaiting the new Labour leadership before making their minds up fully. The indications are though that when they do it will be firmly in favour of the Conservative party, but it does remain to be seen!
Does the same sort of demographic apply just North of the Thames as well? Thurrock must be a bit similar to some of the North Kent constituencies, , but I am not sure about the others.
2. The result doesn’t look so different from the 2006 Carlisle CC in that ward (LD 632, Lab 321, Con 149).
The more close result produced last time the ward was contested at county level was on the same day of the GE. I suppose he favoured Labour then.
Yes, and I can’t have been the only person in the Labour Party who was disappointed to hear that BMA had clung on! Just to show that I don’t have a personal dislike of all Labour left-wingers, I’m sorry that Alan Simpson has announced his retirement at the next GE. He’s far more amusing and genial in person than his rather dour TV performances suggest. I remember one meeting of the university UN Society where he spoke for 90 mins without a single note.
There was an item on these seats on the World at One, in the context of the Brown take-over and the recent polls. The MP for Sittingbourne (majority 37) was very unhappy with the current state of affairs in the Labour Party. Anyone know why the Tories have n’t selected yet in Rochester or Gillingham (they were in the first tranche of marginals for the “A-list” selection ages ago)?
2. Btw, another thing is that since the previous result was on GE day, I suppose that the tories campaigned a bit more last time than this time (just because they were campaigning for GE).
So parts of that 4% reduction can not be tactical vote, but just “soft” tory voters switching due to the lack of campaign.
I think that a good part of what others call tactical vote is just the soft vote going to other parties because of the poor campaign of the third party and the strong campaign of the other party.
6. Richard, I’m sure you’re hoping for Christine Shawcroft to be selected in Nottingham South now
Many thanks for the article Sean, and on a Friday! Hooray and well done
it will be interesting to see how these seats pan out.
Meanwhile in other news, my blog has been quoted in the British Medical Jornal!
See:
http://aconservatives.blogspot.com/
3 - My point is, essentially, that if the anti-Labour voters become as sophisticated as the anti-Conservative voters are then Labour will be in very deep trouble. I think this is starting to happen.
Although I’m usually a Conservative voter, I’d certainly vote Liberal Democrat if they were the best way to remove Labour.
Mind you, I’d very probably, happily, vote for a decomposing cowpat if I thought it was the best placed candidate to beat the Labour Party representative.
Sean - I’m glad someone has finally noticed this cluster of seats!
If the Sittingbourne MP is moaning (maj 79 actually before boundary changes), it’s probably because the Labour party have been putting virtually no effort into these seats at either a regional or national level, whilst the tories have been chucking loads at them.
It is these seats that lead to my argument that where Labour were seen to be under threat, voters turned out to vote Labour, whereas in the safe seats they deserted in droves.
I personally cannot see why the Labour prty is neglecting this strip of seats - they are clustered together and should be easily promoted all at the same time, yet the party seems to have given up on them!
Local elections here over the last year and the next couple of years should prove very interesting and give some reflection of how the parties might fare in 2009 - I would argue that at the moment the results are patchy all round, with some strong Labour results and some thumping tory results, and the Libs all but crumbling.
11 Steven W. Hhmmmm …. “Cowpats 4 Cameron”.
Not the best election slogan !!
11 - if you think anti-Lab voting is going to happen on the scale of the anti-Con voting then forget it!
The most you can hope for in 2009/10 is that the anti-Lab vote is as high as the anti-Con vote will continue to be.
And all sing praise to that in Lib Dem camps!
A very good analysis of North Kent, Sean. It is worth remembering that between 1979 and 1997 all seats in Kent were Tory.
I’m not sure that Gillingham has much that’s rural in it. It was historically strong Tory due to a services vote. The closure of Chatham Dockyard, which was in Gillingham started to erode this in the 1980s. A declining LD vote there, and in fact all over Kent, has benefited Labour.
Some of the rural areas on North Kent are quite poor too. The cement, quarry and paper villages on the North Downs - Snodland, Wouldham, Burham, Cuxton etc and not exactly smart places.
There are three prisons, and over 2000 prisoners on the Isle of Sheppey. How are prison officers likely to vote?
The Tories should aim to regain all off these seats - though I think they will probably miss one or so. Dover, however, I am sure will stay Labour.
11 - It’s just my agricultural background showing again Jack.
Cowpats 4 Cameron.
Hmmmm…
You say it’s not the best election slogan but, let’s face it, the Conservatives have lumbered themselves with worse slogans in the past. I think you might’ve found a winner for them there.
Ooops - 16 should be addressed to Jack at 13, of course. It’s been a long day…
15 - I think it’s also worth throwing Steve Ladyman into the consideration here - another wafer thin majority in a former Tory seat.
Infact, in the 80s the Libs were strong seconds in some of these seats, and might have expected to be the main beneficiaries from the 1997 collapse - but it was Labour who picked up all the spoils everywhere.
A lot of former Libs have supported Labour it seems to beat the Tories. I expect this to continue, but we will ahve to see.
The MPs are quite a split bunch though - 2 often rebel - Bob Marshal Andrews and Derek Wyatt whilt 3 are either whips / ministers / or former whips - Paul Clark, Jonathon Shaw and Steve Ladyman. Whether this has any bearing on voters is a mute point though. All, I think, are planning to stand again - excepts possibly BMA - not sure if he’s declared or not yet.
‘All, I think, are planning to stand again’
I’m sure a couple at least will change their minds as the GE approaches
18. Pimpernel, I wouldn’t describe DW as “often rebel”
19 - any substance to that? or just expectations? would be interested to know
I can’t see who’d want to stand in such seats though - defending a wafer thin marginal and losing any personal vote - it’s be the place TB would try and get GB to stand if he could 
20 - Oh, I thought he was the Daily Mail’s ‘left wing fire brand’ LOL
21
In the 2001-2005 Parliament he rebelled against the whip 3 times (mainly over Iraq). I think BMA can protest for being put in the same category with his over 100 rebellions just between 2001 and 2005! 
12 “It is these seats that lead to my argument that where Labour were seen to be under threat, voters turned out to vote Labour, whereas in the safe seats they deserted in droves.”
I would have thought similar, but doing a quick analysis of the English labour seats on Pippa Norris’s database, the impact is not as distinct as you might have thought.
Labour vote share 01-05 in their seats where the Tories had 35%+ in 2001. : -4.1%
Labour vote share 01-05 in their seats where the Tories less than 35% in 2001. : -6.0%
Anyone wanting to put some money on the Oscars could do worse than Forest Whitaker best actor Helen Mirren best actress Babel best film Scorcese best director (The Departed) Best supporting actor Alan Arkin Best supporting actress Kate Blanchett Best adapted screenplay Patrick Marber Best original screenplay Guillermo Arriaga (Babel) and best cinematography Guillermo Navarro (Pans Labyrinth)
As there are too many English actors in the list they might go for Kate Hudson instead of Kate Blanchett and if ‘The Departed’ won best film with Alejandro Inarritu the director of ‘Babel’ winning best director I wouldn’t complain.
Anyone wanting to put some money on the Oscars could do worse than Forest Whitaker best actor Helen Mirren best actress Babel best film Scorcese best director (The Departed) Best supporting actor Alan Arkin Best supporting actress Kate Blanchett Best adapted screenplay Patrick Marber Best original screenplay Guillermo Arriaga (Babel) and best cinematography Guillermo Navarro (Pans Labyrinth)
As there are too many English actors in the list they might go for Kate Hudson instead of Kate Blanchett and if ‘The Departed’ won best film with Alejandro Inarritu the director of ‘Babel’ winning best director I wouldn’t complain.
Rallings and Thrasher have a much smaller shift between Rochester and Strrod and Chatham and Aylesford:
Rochester and Strood C maj 503 (1.1%)
Chatham and Aylesford C maj 3,289 (8.25%0
R & T will undoubtedly be regarded as the ‘official’ notional figures, as they have been sponsored by BBC, ITN, Sky News and the PA.
Strong move towards Jack Straw in the market for next Chancellor today following James Blitz article in the Financial Times. Now down to 7/1. Vindicates Arthur Greenwood’s analysis a couple of weekends ago when Straw was available at 15/1.
The question now is when to take profits.
26. R&T figures are probably better for the tories…I mean that if they’re right, C&A remains on their rader, whilst R&S is seen as a bit worse than in other estimations, but since they’re always ahead, it will matter less (in the short term).
Are there any place to find R&T figures online?
50% Of US That Won’t Vote Carefully Debates Best ‘08 Presidential Candidate”
By Lee Camp
The early polls have come in and show that Rudolph Giuliani barely leads Hillary Clinton, John McCain, and Barak Obama among the 50% of U.S. citizens who ultimately won’t care enough to vote come election day.
Alisa Manheim, 37, said, “I would never vote for Hillary. I think she’s despicable. But I like this Obama guy. He seems like he genuinely cares about America and has a plan for our future. So come election day in November 2008, I’ll be most disappointed I didn’t vote for him.”
When asked why should wouldn’t end up voting, she said, “I imagine I’ll consider it and then realize that if I go vote, I won’t have time to go tanning.”
Barrett Heller, 26, declared that he will stab anyone who votes Republican. He yelled, “This world is going down the toilet! Don’t you care?! What the f**k?!” Heller went on to say he doubts he’ll have time on Election Day to actually vote, but his non-vote is definitely a Democratic one.
28 Andrea, I don’t think so, and I doubt it, yet; they will want people to buy the book! (30 pounds from Politico’s, and the day after I bought one, a complimentary copy arrived …!)
If there’s any particular seat you’re interested in, let me know, and I’ll try to post the majority.
Sean, I would have thought the signiificant thing about the Calderdale result is that it confirms that where the public identify the strongest candidate to the BNP, they will cross party lines, or in the parlon, hold their noses when they vote. Both the Liberal democrats and Labour are gaining from this, I suspect it might also happen to a Conservative, if they were in the right position to be the obvious party to defeat the BNP.
I think we should all be grateful for this situation and avoid crowing when the beneficiary is the party we support. The important thing is that the BNP are held back.
31. Perhaps we should also consider what factors have led to a situation where the main parties have to appeal in desperation to each others’ voters to keep fascists out.
31. Queensbury in Bradford would be one obvious exampple I can think of. 2006 result: BNP 1829, Con 1533, Lab 935, Lib Dem 455.
I don’t think the parties will have to appeal to their supporters to vote for X to defeat Y. In some cases it will happen because the voters work it out for themselves - as appeared to be the case yesterday in Calderdale; in others it will be that the parties in third, fourth and below just don’t compete as hard. In the example above, Labour held all three seats through to 1999 but now are not only nowhere near but have other seats to defend nearby that should have a higher priority for them. Similarly, I know of another by-election close by - but over a year ago - where the Conservatives and Lib Dems didn’t put up much effort to leave Labour and the BNP to battle it out.
Even so, we should be careful about creating the appearance of two parties: the BNP and the not-BNP. While it’s important to reverse their advance, this is best achieved by giving voters positive reasons to go for other parties. We’re lucky that so many of their councillors and candidates have either dodgy pasts or fail in office; perhaps that’s the result of the membership they attract, but were they ever to gain a serious professional organisation I’ve no doubt they’d win parliamentary seats in the current climate.
33. David - given their recent performances I don’t think we can rule out the possibility that the BNP will win a parliamentary seat at the next. If so, given the dubious pasts (and often presents) of many of their members, this will be an astonishing indictment of the main parties. Even in the 1930s, fascists got nowhere near winning any parliamentary seats.
34. But in the 1930s, they never really got a chance. In 1931, Moseley was still travelling towards fascism in the New Party so the option wasn’t really on the ballot paper; in 1935, the BUF had suffered from bad publicity both internal (such as the thuggush behaviour of its own supporters) and external (for example, Hitler’s night of the long knives) and didn’t contest the election.
34 - I really dont think the BNP will be anywhere near winning a seat at the next GE. They will be doing well to get a couple of results in the high 20’s % plus several in the low 20’s or teens %.
In my experience, whilst most areas have a certain quantity of people who would vote BNP or UKIP, it is hard to get over the threshold needed to win in FPTP. That is one danger of certain forms of PR, that in some areas it could let parties like the BNP gain one of a group of seats.
Having said that, maybe one of the best antidotes to voting BNP would be to see some of their representatives in action!
35. Fair enough David but a) ‘bad publicity’ hasn’t stopped the BNP standing in elections and winning them, although I accept there is a difference of scale vis-a-vis the BUF and b) the BNP has a much better record even in byelections than the BUF ever had - despite fascism being very well supported in many continental countries at the time of the BUF’s heyday (sic).
I still think it is remarkable that a fascist party can be scoring far higher vote shares in 2007 than one in the mid-1930s.
24. Blanchett isn’t English, or indeed British.
37. Yeah shocking the Lib Dems can get so many votes………
Well the Lib Dems seem to think that the BNP has some good councillors… http://www.guardian.co.uk/race/story/0,,2018204,00.html
Rik,I sincerely hope you are right,mate,but in view of the local govt results in the London borough of Barking last year,I really do worry about Dagenham + Rainham next time (especially taken that in the last GE the BNP got a solid-enough 17% )
O/T But interesting
The Conservatives appear to have outwitted NuLabour on this one and Blair’s politburo need to wise up !
Conservatives Abroad Launch New Voter Registration Website
Conservatives Abroad have launched a new voter registration website, Don’t Leave Your Vote At Home. You can view it by clicking here
Conservatives Abroad Blog Redesigned
This week saw the launch of the new look Conservatives Abroad blog. Both the original blogs, the main Conservatives Abroad blog, and the Guest Blog remain, but are now joined by The View From… a blog which will give you the members a chance to write articles on politics/current affairs from wherever you are in the world, and also a specific PMQs blog, which will contain a live text feed of the goings on and discussion following the event. All the blogs are now on the same page, hopefully making it easier for you to navigate your way around the blog. For more details on how to contribute to The View From…please click the link the London Calling link at the top of the page.
Message from David Cameron
You can make a profound impact on the result of the next election. Encourage your friends and family who also live outside of the UK to look at this site, encourage them to register to vote, and encourage them to vote Conservative.
Together we can help make the next Government a Conservative one and secure the future of our great country.
- The Rt. Hon David Cameron MP, President, Conservatives Abroad
BBC reporting train crash & derailment in Cumbria.
There is no chance of a BNP seat in parliament next GE.
London/Glasgow train.
Cheers for the re-assurance-I hope casualties/injuries are as low as possible r.e the train-my ngoodness,is that the time-time for a pint or six:lol:
I think it’ll be very hard for a BNP candidate to win election in a general election. In local elections it’s easier for them because the whole affair is seen as more ground to register protest votes than the ’serious’ question of who you want to run the country.
If there was any chance of a BNP candidate winning a Westminster seat, I would expect a very high-profile campaign in that constituency to vote for the party most likely to keep them out. That said, we don’t want to give them the oxygen of publicity. Do we, Margaret Hodge?
40. Interesting. I’m delighted to see the Lib Dems have finally acted on this matter - when it was originally raised on this and other fora some Lib Dem posters didn’t seem to think there was much of an issue.
Robert Waller: what do R&T have for Sefton Central?
O/T. Shortest lay price on GB for next Labour leader now 1.30!!! He can still be backed at 1.26 - and by the market dynamics, probably more. What is going on?
I think Bob Marshall Andrews kept his seat last time becdause he would have attracted potential Libs to vote for him.
Other North Kent seats will go back to the conservatives next time (is it the Medway council elections this year - the Conservatives hold this council at the moment, and Swale I think).
Libs held the Gillingham council proir to the 1997 election and thought they’d win the seat - they came a poor third as the Labour vote jumped amazingly.
I also didn’t realise that the Medway constituency was renamed - about time to,
50 Baffled, David.
I’d be cheering but I’ve already drained my Betfair account to mop up the odds between between 1.25 and 1.28 that have been appearing recently.
52. Hello, Peter. Thinking about it, I suspect it’s a response to the Guardian poll earlier this week - but I can only see it as an irrational one. If I see some evidence that party members or MPs don’t want Brown; if I see some evidence that someone credible is going to stand; if I see something to suggest that Blair both wants out of his commitment and can get out of it - then I could understand the movement. But I don’t see any of that. Still, it’s not something to cry about.
53 The only thing to cry about, David, is that I don’t have a few thousand more to punt on these extraordinarily generous prices.
44 - full agreement with you for once.
What’s missing from the discussion of Calderdale was the irresponsible tory claim that it was a 2-horse race between them and the BNP.
Disingenuous and very dangerous!
53/54. Realisitically, if it was truly informed money Gordon’s odds would shift in a big way.
Whilst the shift is big in percentage terms its not really significant in weight of& intelligence money I don’t think.
44 I’d say it’s more likely than not that the BNP won’t win a Parliamentary seat next time. But it’s certainly not impossible.
It’s harder to persuade people to vote for the candidate who can best keep out the BNP in ordinary all-out elections, because non-BNP voters have so many other issues to vote about.
40: ‘Well the Lib Dems seem to think that the BNP has some good councillors’
And in Calderdale…
http://www.halifaxcouriertoday.co.uk/ViewArticle.aspx?SectionID=700&ArticleID=1818212
55. Pimpernel, it’s possible that the tories were really believing that they were close. They probably hadn’t great canvassers.
30. Robert, thanks. I won’t abuse of your kindness (and the deciding process of what to ask can be too much for me
)
42 - “Conservatives Abroad Launch New Voter Registration Website”
People driven out of Britain have good reason to despise Labour.
54. Absolutely.
55. I ought to respond as I made comments along those lines here. Firstly, I don’t know the exact details of the campaign - I had a couple of quick conversations with the candidate and haven’t been involved beyond that. I was however, a candidate in last year’s local elections in a ward where Labour, the BNP and the Lib Dems were in contention and there was also a decent Conservative vote to defend. When the count was half way through, the Labour candidate was telling her activists that she’d lost; the Lib Dem had another candidate congratulate him on his victory; the BNP thought they’d beaten Labour into third. Then the postal votes were added. The whole picture was transformed and Labour scraped in by just under 50 votes out of over 4000 cast. The noises on the doorstep simply didn’t register how much impact the postal votes would have.
Whether that was the case in Calderdale I don’t know. It could be that people said they were going to vote Conservative and then tactically voted Labour. As Andrea said, it could have been optimistic canvassing. I don’t know. But ultimately, I go back to my earlier post: beating the BNP will not be done by tactical alliances of parties who disagree with each other, even though it might work in the short term. It will only be done when those who are currently voting BNP see a reason to vote for another party.
By-Election Results: Thursday 22nd February 2007.
Calderdale MBC, Illingworth and Mixenden
Lab 1104 (38.3; +10.5), BNP 1034 (35.9; +0.3), Con 525 (18.2; -4.4), LD Michael Elder 150 (5.2; -4.6), Ind 68 (2.4; -1.7).
Majority 70. Turnout 31.7%. Lab hold. Last fought 2006.
Cumbria CC, Castle
LD Olwyn Luckley 653 (64.0; +20.2), Lab 222 (21.7; -18.2), Con 117 (11.5; -4.8), Green 29 (2.8; +2.8).
Majority 431. Turnout 25.2%. LD hold. Last fought 2005.
Please note:
The figures for percentage change are based on the details of the results from the last time that there was an election in the ward by statute in the May (or sometimes June) elections, rather than by any by-election. We use the figures in The Local Elections Handbook by Colin Rallings & Michael Thrasher.
The Party-defending seat is the party that the former Councillor (who has died, resigned or been disqualified) belonged to when she or he was elected not the one that she or he may have subsequently belonged to as a result of any defection.
61.”When the count was half way through, the Labour candidate was telling her activists that she’d lost”
was she related to Bob Marshall Andrews?
re 36. Ochil & S Perthshire was won with 31.4% of the vote last time and IIRC there have been winners with fewer than 30% in the past (cue Andrea)
Inverness
63.
64. At parliamentary level, there’s the famous four-way marginal in Inverness, Nairn and Lochaber where the winner got about 26%. At local level, there was a by-election in Scarborough not too long ago who won with under 23% (6 candidates IIRC). The Labour candidate I was talking about in [61] won with 28.2%.
64. Inverness, Nairn and Lochaber in 1992 was won with just 26% of the vote…it was LD 26%, Lab 25.2%, SNP 24.7%, Con 22.6%
re 50 given that I’d laid at 1.18 I was quite happy with the 1.27 I got for my money this evening.
But there is clearly a risk of the BNP polling more than 26% in Barking. And they may have a good chance of winning. Does anyone have any local knowledge?
58 Every few weeks one of you Conservatives posts that false story on here without publishing the apology and retraction the Halifax Courier had to publish later .
49, Rod:
Sefton Central
Lab 18,776 45.6
C 13,826 33.6
LD 7,915 19.2
Oths 662 1.6
Lab maj 4,950 12.0
I do think the Tory campaign in Calderdale sounds dubious - the history of the ward strongly suggested that Labour was the main alternative to the BNP, and the Tories shouldn’t have claimed otherwise without really convincing evidence which it seems unlikely that they had. To answer the obvious question: if a council seat was a Tory-BNP marginal, I wouldn’t mind Labour having a candidate, but I’d favour keeping the effort low key and certainly not trying to divert anti-BNP votes.
David Herdson is of course right that merely waving cloves of garlic and shouting “stop the BNP!” is not a long-term answer. One needs to show that one’s listening on the non-racist issues: they can be contained in nearly all areas if they are dependent on racists, but become dangerous when they get fed-up motorists etc.
We have the national press spokeswoman for the party standing in our May election in Brinsley in Broxtowe borough (there are no BNP candidates in my patch but the borough is a bit wider): she got 43% last time in a straight fight with Labour. But 40 people turned up to a local meeting last week to volunteer help to stop them, most of them by no means Labour members or even supporters - in fact I’d guess that’s more activists than most parties have in entire constituencies. Should be quite a battle: the ward is essentially a single village.
72 - Nick, with the greatest of respect to you, I see nothing remotely dubious in that Conservative campaign. Surely it’s the absolute right of any candidate to claim that they can win and fight for every vote they can get? Otherwise there’s really no point in having an election.
Likewise I see no merit at all in any of the mainstream parties dropping to the ground and playing dead in order to give one of their number a clear run against the BNP. If it takes the suspension of “normal politics” to beat the BNP then I’m afraid that they’ve already won.
The BNP are going to win the odd seat from time to time (but not very often and not very many) - much as I despise them I’d rather see that happen then see the mainstream parties suspend their normal practices causing mainstream democracy die wherever the BNP choose to stand.
You really mustn’t give the BNP the satisfaction of killing choice and diversity.
69
I doubt there are BNP target seats where LD, Labour and Tory all have the local organisation to run the level of campaign that avoids any squeeze.
btw, another 4-way marginal in recent years was Argyll and Bute; was it in 1997?
73. Steven, all the points you’ve made are ones I would have, had I not retired before that hour! I’d just add one other.
Politicians of the parties outside the BNP like to put a big dividing line between themselves as a ‘legitimate’ group, and the BNP who get dubbed ‘illegitimate’ in practice if not in theory. This can be effective even if it’s not fair - but then the BNP isn’t a fair party so I don’t have any sympathy. However, the voting public especially in areas the the BNP can win don’t make that same distinction. One of the reasons they can win is because many voters have already decided the BNP are a legitimate party to vote for - either because they agree with them or because they want to protest. There will be others who would rather vote BNP than Labour (disillusionment with this government), Tory (disillusionment with the last government) or any other named party. Not standing or not fighting the contest could push some voters into the BNP’s camp. While splitting the mainstream vote is a risk, it’s a bigger risk to deny the public their choice.
If we had a French-style two round system, I could quite happily vote Lib Dem, Labour, Green (just, but I’ve history there) or other centre-ish candidate to stop the BNP. But I couldn’t ask others to do it in the system we have here if I didn’t believe that blocking candidate was the best one on the paper.
Somebody made the point (in a roundabout way) earlier, that there are circumstances when it is arguably better for the BNP to win in a situation where the effect is limited, so that they can subsequently shed support in their own right. What limited evidence there is suggests, i think, that small numbers of BNP councillors don’t tend to achieve very much whilst often damaging themselves in the process.
Nick, thanks for your comments on the other thread. I’ve a lot of time for you as well, particularly your forbearance towards the more aggressive critics (if I can be polite - it is still before 10am) who post here from time to time. It’s good that the site has a resident MP who demonstrates what most involved in politics already know - that the vast majority of MPs and other elected people are decent, reasonable, tolerant and in it for what they can do for others.
Anyway, eulogies over. I know John thought he was best placed to best the BNP - he told me that in as many words. Obviously he was wrong, and equally obviously we both look a bit silly now, particularly given the voting record of the ward. That said, there are other results across the country that have shown dramatic declines in the Labour scores and the opinion polls are showing Labour to be going through a bad patch. Also, the former Labour councillor clearly had a personal vote; that’s why he was elected in 2004. So it would not have been inconceivable for the Labour vote to have dropped leaving the BNP clear. Whether shy Labour voters came out on the day (or via the post), or whether there was a tactical vote from Tories and Lib Dems, I don’t know. Probably a bit of both.
On your main point, I’d agree with most of it. Where a candidate is standing for a party that has no chance of winning, and the BNP do have reasonable prospects, it’s not a good idea to put a lot of effort in. But in wards (or even constituencies - though I don’t know of any), where the BNP is one of three or more parties who are in with a shout, I believe the best option is for both of the other two to go for the win as hard as possible - except that they shouldn’t attack each other. The BNP thrive most when voters feel they’re taken for granted and their views aren’t represented (even if the BNP don’t represent them either). While there’s the chance that they might just squeeze through the middle of a split vote, there’s also the liklihood that their own vote will be squeezed.
These are all good points about fighting the BNP, and it’s true that in the long term they must be defeated by addressing the concerns that people tempted to vote for them have.
However, the real crux of the situation in Calderdale was the Tory declaration that they were neck and neck with the BNP and that Labour was out of it.
I can accept Andrea’s point that they might have had crap canvassers, and even the idea that that was a fair representation of the situation as it appears on the ground.
But a ’sorry we called it wrong’ admission by the tories would be at least a genuine statement, instead we have these pitiful arguments about how they have the right to fight for every vote etc, totally ignoring the fact that had they let the BNP win by diverting anti-BNP votes to them selves from Labour they would have really screwed up!
It doesn’t hurt to apologise when you’ve got it wrong - and seeing as most of you want the PM to do likewise, why not set the example yourselves?
Thanks, David and Pimpernel - I think we’ve all got fairly reasonable positions on this, and will leave it there…
78 - cross posted with David’s post above, which is a far better response than any other I’ve seen
2. Exactly so. In Wales that is already happening in the Assembly Elections with support going to the best placed anti Labour Party. Plaid Llanelli, Cardiff North Tories etc.
3. To be fair he is not saying that he is simply saying there is a greater willingess among Tory supporters to tactically vote against Labour than ever before. I agree with that.
14. Anti Labour tactical voting may well not happen on the same scale as previous anti Conservative tactical voting, but that is not the point. It has always been so in favour of Labour even a small reduction in pro Labour tactical voting by Liberal Democrats, and small rise in anti Labour tactical voting by Conservatives but still in Labour’s favour overall will have serious consequences. Assume for the sake of argument they may balance each other out I’m sure someone can come up with a significant number of ousted Labour MPs before a single vote shifts directly from Labour to Conservative.
11. For that reason, I say those predicting Liberal Democrat meltdown are off the mark at present. I still could see a tiny net overall Lib MP increase even allowing for sharp losses to the Tories in the right circumstances. But that is also still improbable at present.
42 Herbert Proper Thanks for the link to Coservatives Abroad. I downloaded the application forms but then discovered, as when I tried to get the vote in 1994, they still insist on an ‘overseas English person’ counter-signing the application. That is absurd, we are the only English in this village, I know no others. Why don’t they let the Mayor countersign it? Not going to the Consulate, too far away.
71. Thanks Robert. That’s pretty much where I had it.
a belated comment regarding the Carlisle Castle result:
spent a couple of days helping…………that 5.30am alarm call for Good Morning leaflets on Thursday was a bit early! Well, it was wet, then drizzle, then wet, then dry…..so not a good day to get out the vote!
By 1pm we were expecting a 25% t/o….and thus just about 1000 votes, so we needed 500 to win. By 6pm we knew it was “in the bag”.
At the count the Lab faces were gloomy from the start, and I was teasing the Con that as Lab had had so much difficulty in getting out their vote, then there may have been the possibility of Lab being pushed into third place! As it was, of those votes cast on the day the Blue and Red piles were pretty even, but on the postals (over 300) Lab had done their work.
What might be of interest is the nature of the Division…….inner city…….lots of Victorian terrace; some new-ish Housing Association prop; some new private prop; and the Raffles Estate, Carlisle’s “difficult” place! All in all what might be regarded as mostly traditional Labour territory (or potential BNP territory).
So the message is: good local LibDem candidate endorsed by the electorate, and Labour vote collapses people clearly saying “Labour not wanted here”.