YouGov brings more poll doubts over Gordon
February 23rd, 2007
The internet pollster reinforces the trend picked up by ICM
Today’s YouGov poll in the Daily Telegraph shows almost no change in the overall voting intentions on the last survey by the internet pollster - but provides more evidence following this week’s ICM poll of growing doubts on the electoral appeal of the Chancellor, Gordon Brown.
The headline figures are with changes on the last YouGov survey two and a half weeks ago are:- CON 37% (nc): LAB 32% (nc): LD 17% (-1)
There’s been a big change, however, in responses to YouGov’s forced choice question - “If you had to choose, which would you prefer to see after the next election, a Conservative Government led by David Cameron or a Labour Government led by Gordon Brown?” This was the split with comparisons on last month CON 43% (-1): LAB 34% (-4)
To put the Brown-Cameron question in context - exactly one year ago when the Tory leader was enjoying his media honeymoon the split was CON 37% - LAB 43%.
This change on the month is very similar to that recorded in ICM’s voting intention question published on Tuesday when a big swing to the Tories on the month was recorded when respondents were asked how they would vote if it was Brown’s Labour against Cameron’s Tories and Ming’s Lib Dems.
There’s also been a decline in Brown’s position people were asked “who would make the best Prime Minister?” Last month Cameron had a 2% margin over Brown - this is now 4%.
My reading is that confidence in Gordon appears to erode when he does things like last week’s English World Cup bid announcement. He appears to want the top job too much and this is not something that voters warm to. If he could do “humble” his succession would be 100% assured.
All this is reinforcing doubts about the Chancellor in the Labour leadership betting where the Brown price has eased to 0.25/1. Me? I’m keeping my money on Gordon and will be putting more on if the price moves much further.
Mike Smithson
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Seems that numbers like this are very important, not so much for the headline, but for what it tells us about the tactical vote.
Have their been any polls asking which way LD tactical votes break lately - I’m guessing there is a big shift to Con with over 50% now?
This poll also picks up ICM’s LibDem decline.
The important thing is that the more people see of Brown the less they like him but the reverse is true of Cameron.
Now imagine this effect multiplied during an election campaign!
I feel pretty confident.
In other words I don’t think it’s just the World Cup (note: stay away from football Gordon. Seriously.).
I think it’s any time he gets PR exposure.
3 How on earth does this poll pick up ICM’s LibDem decline ? You could say this poll disproves ICM’s Conservative increase . Think you need another hours sleep .
I’m travelling through the Far East at the moment, which does give a different perspective on UK politics - because you can see how it is reported abroad.
Basically, no-one’s heard of Brown, or Cameron. The only UK issue with salience abroad is the decline of Blair - and the British government’s withdrawal from Iraq.
I think one German newspaper summed it thusly: ‘the British Labour government started its war with a lie, they fought it with lies, and now its concluding with a lie’.
It’s actually embarrassing, to be a Briton abroad, and therefore “part” of this grotesque misadventure, this reeking disaster. At least now we are being promised an inquiry into the war - only a few months after Labour MPs were wetting themselves with petulance, at the very idea of an inquiry - and voting against an inquiry like the stupid, shameless, arse-waving baboons they are.
Everything this government has done - good and bad - pales into paltry insignificance compared to what they - we - have wrought in Iraq. We have inflicted a holocaust on an entire nation. Two million people have fled Iraq, 1 and a half million have been displaced, half a million people have died - meanwhile the entire region has been thrown into turmoil, Islam has been sent hurtling towards sectarian war, Israel’s very existence is now in doubt, Iran is building nuclear weapons, and the terrorists we were meant to be fighting have actually been energised and emboldened, leaving Britain far less secure than before.
So what do we do now? To me it is obvious. We need a moral cleansing and a proper reckoning, out of respect for the dead. Every Tory MP who supported this war must grovel in shame, and beg forgiveness. Every Labour MP who voted for this war should simply resign, in the full and proper knowledge that their careers have been pointless and their legacy is ashes.
And if every war-supporting Labour MP should resign then every Cabinet Minister should be prosecuted. And let’s start with Saint Tony.
6 - do you speak any oriental languages?
Sean, I know you are against the war, but you seem to be living in a vindictive fantasy world.
Heading back on topic and tying in with last night’s comments, the figure for others is presumably up one to 14%. YouGov do tend to find higher ‘others’ figures but even so, it’s perhaps evidence of a stickiness to their support that will prove harder to shift than I previously expected.
As far as the main figures go, it looks like more confirmation of the new high-thirties / low-thirties / high-teens boxes within which the three main parties have been polling for some time.
The interesting one is the forced split question, which I think Jon answers well at [2]. If the main numbers aren’t moving, then changes in this answer imply it’s the other parties’ supporters who are reassessing their view of Labour and the Conservatives.
It’s still a bit of a hypothetical question as Brown isn’t in place and Cameron is, but that’s been the case with the series for over a year now. The change since then - a 7.5% swing - could become quite a factor in tactical voting. As almost half the non-Tory/Labour vote is not Lib Dem, it would be interesting to see how the answer to the question breaks down by party affiliation. I know the numbers will be small and would have to be taken with caution, but they may still tell a story.
As far as Gordon’s future is concerned, I don’t think he has any immediate reason to be worried from what we’re seeing on here (again, accepting that the Labour posters are necessarily self selecting and that partial data should be treated with caution). There seem to be two main camps, which we might call the Nick P and Roger positions. The Nick P critique is that Labour’s currently in a bit of a hole but Gordon is the best man to get them out of it; he’s by far the most experienced, a heavyweight and most members and MPs are wanting him. The Roger position is that there’s not really a problem, the Tory lead is based on an illusion that the public will see through and that the underlying strength of Labour’s position is founded on Brown’s handling of the economy, therefore he should be the next leader.
I can’t really understand why Brown’s price has been driven out over the last week from what I thought were already generous odds and have added to my backing of him. It still seems to me that the Labour Party wants him - but even if they didn’t, I don’t think they’d have much option.
Good post David. I personally agree with Nick P’s analysis. Labour are certainly in trouble at the moment. GB is surely going to take over from Tony, and rightly so IMO. From what I hear in my local party meetings, TB has had his day (although surprisingly well respected and not hated (save for a couple of left-wing diehards) and GB is seen as the coming man, who will (we hope!) renew the Party, try to draw a line under the past and set us on course for an unprecedented 4th Term - a generation of Labour government.
No one has any opinion of Milliband (”too young” was the one comment I heard!) We are just, well, in limbo a bit. Cameron can punch away at Gordon, but Gordon can’t really punch back at the moment.
I’d quite like to see a timetable in the next few weeks.
Oh, we have also picked up a few new members - I think they want a vote in the leadership election. Hope they are not closet tory spoilers! I got my mum into the Party last week anyway, so she should cancel one of them out!
Yes, maybe.
But what the polls dont say is that if Labour have a leader who intends to fight and win the next GE (whoever it is), the party will regain the direction, focus and political message that it has lacked since 2005. I am not sure that the polls have any insight into this whatsover. As such ahuge pinch of salt. Sure Brown doesn’t have quite such apolishe veneer as Cameron and Blair. But perhaps that’s a good thing for British politics. The last thing we need is a popularity seeking superficial lightweight.
The first few lines of Anthony King’s commentary was rather bitchy towards ICM and its sampling size:
“An old rule of politics holds that the more unexpected and implausible an opinion poll’s findings, the more publicity they receive.
Earlier this week another newspaper headlined a poll claiming that the Conservatives would surge into a 13-point lead over Labour if Gordon Brown became Prime Minister. That poll was based on a sample of fewer than a thousand electors.
YouGov’s monthly survey for The Daily Telegraph, based on a sample of 2,292 electors, detects no such surge…..”
Despite being, er, terminally statistically-challenged, I assume he is talking nonsense on the reliability of the two polls’ sampling numbers. Or does he have a point?
5. ICM had LDs down three, this has them down one. As in down.
But it’s the huge loss to Labour in economic competence that matters. ConHome puts this in perspective:
“Perhaps more significant is the fact that the Tories have a 30% to 27% lead over Labour on economic competence. That 3% advantage compares very favourably with a 22% disadvantage (49% over 27%) at the last General Election.”
That’s a colossal shift away from Lab and to the Tories of 25%! Fantastic stuff. If Brown doesn’t lead on his supposed strength of fiscal prudence (yeah right) then what else does he have? Nothing.
11 - that is a very reasonable point - i don’t think it’s possible to overestimate the extent to which, to the outside observer, Blair’s actions appear deliberately designed to shed political support. Whether, to use a favorite New Labour phrase, there is time for Gordon to turn around the supertanker, is another question.
[13] Er, so since the last General Election the Tories have persuaded a massive further 3% of the voters that they’re fit to run the economy? And 7% of the electorate intends to vote Tory despite believing they’re not fit to do so (and 5% to vote Labour on the same basis)!
5 - Mark Senior never refers any Lib Dem fall in vote, defections or bad polls anywhere. He usually goes into denial. He has yet to mention that the LD vote in Calderdale fell by half.
Very good result for Labour in Calderdale - good result for everyone actually! Any more results?
15. Er no - its a 25 % swing..
What are the chances of Yvette Cooper being Chancellor?
12 - all things being equal there will be a lower margin of error the larger the sample size, although it is subject to a law of diminishing returns. However all things are not equal and the things that can go wrong with YouGov polls are different to the things that can go wrong with ICM.
In the case of “surprising polls”, for example, it is true that ICM will be more vulnerable to picking up ‘false’ or ‘temporary’ swings. On the other hand they will also be quicker at picking up major shifts.
In the specific example of Monday’s poll however, I think the basic thrust of King’s criticism is misplaced - because the results only represented a small shift on ICM’s previous poll - what got it the publicity was not the surprising nature of the poll, or the size of the swing, but simply that it was the best result for the Conservatives/Cameron yet produced. That is not, in itself, a comment on the accuracy or otherwise of ICM’s polling.
20 Slightly less than those of Dawn Primarolo
20 (con) - I also think that YouGov has to have as large a sample size as possible to reduce the effect of the disproportionate number of politically and party committed people who fill in their polls.
21 - don’t mock her chances. The longest serving paymaster general in history
23 I assure you, I wasn’t!
20 The relatively small sample size in ICM polls and higher Margin Of Error figures will lead to greater month to month variations .
22 - Have Yougov done anything to offset their clearly anomalous UKIP figures or are they blithely ignoring it? Has anyone got the others breakdown? I doubt there’s been a massive UKIP to Green swing but you never know.
alex is right about the statistics, though given the number of people who refuse to give a preference, a sample of 1000 is a *little* on the light side. I’d criticise the YouGov poll for a different aspect: their summary of the TB and DC positions on youth gun crime assigns the view that “young people generally are no worse than they used to be”, a sweeping and vague view (compared with when, exactly?) that goes further than TB’s assertion that young people generally are not involved in the gun crime issue.
As for the main themes discussed: well, the 5% lead and the small bonus when leaders are named are very much what we’ve been looking at for some months now, and if anything the poll should calm some post-ICM jangled nerves. The shift on economic competence is also not new - the Tory lead on the issue has just risen from 2% in December to 3% now. The change since 2005 is entirely due to a reduction in confidence in Labour and not a rise in confidence in the Tories, and IMO mainly reflects the objective fact that the economy has been at a low point in the cycle (specifically with rising interest rates) in the last year and personal consumption has been squeezed.
I honestly don’t know what the political trend is, but I think we’ll know a lot more by the end of the year.
27. I agree that with the economy strengthening, and unemployment falling once again this can only be good news for the government. People have never had it so good!
“There’s been a big change, however, in responses to YouGov’s forced choice question - “If you had to choose, which would you prefer to see after the next election, a Conservative Government led by David Cameron or a Labour Government led by Gordon Brown?” This was the split with comparisons on last month CON 43% (-1): LAB 34% (-4)”
The result of this question is similar to the one found in late 2006 polls:
Dec: 10% DC lead, Nov +9% DC lead, Oct 13% DC lead
Last month saw Brown gaining ground in that question, this month seems to return to the usual position
28. “the Tories have a 30% to 27% lead over Labour on economic competence. That 3% advantage compares very favourably with a 22% disadvantage (49% over 27%) at the last General Election.”
Not sure “people” agree..
6. Having lived in the Far East for 8 years I don’t get that impression. That may because the 2 countries I have lived in, Japan and Singapore are the strongest US allies in the region. I’m certainly not embarrassed to be British, because of Iraq or otherwise.
I do agree with your point on name recognition though - Blair is the only one that matters round here.
O/T For those who backed my trading tip Rangers at 36s for the UEFA cup on betfair, price is now 22s. They still have a reasonable chance to progress to the last 8 for those that wish to hold on..
re 8 the Astroturfers have started early this morning.
re 32. I might save my nerves and lay off now!
31 - I think the give away was Sean said he was touring the Far East, and then quoted a German newspaper
South Korea, of course, has 2000 troops in Iraq.
As for “name recognition”, well that’s hardly a comment on British politics. I’m sure the same is basically true of every country when reported on by foreign press, outside of election periods.
re 10. So what you are saying is that you can buy a vote on who is going to be the next Prime Minister. 19th century here we come again.
No difference with a load of Cameronites joining the Tory party to make him leader! Why don’t you join the party and vote for Meacher - we could do with a laugh.
35 - what are you suggesting? The Labour Party offering free membership for a month?
35: eh? You feel that Labour Party members should not have a vote, or only if they don’t pay their subs? That is seriously weird.
Like RedFlump we’re seeing a steady trickle of new members in Broxtowe, though just 2-3 a month.
O/T: Sego seems to be making a recovery, with the lead in the last poll down to 2% and this:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2007/02/23/wfrance23.xml
I know Chris in Paris isn;t a fan of hers, but his reports are always interesting - time for an update?
Cumbria CC Carlisle Castle LibDem hold with very large swing to them from both Labour and Conservative
LibDem 653 Lab 222 Con 117 Green 29 - 2005 result LibDem 937 Lab 853 Con 349 .
As Commentator will no doubt say , this result is a complete freak and outlier , the true position is that there is a massive swing from LibDem to Conservative as shown in the ICM polls that is so far not being picked up when people actually go out to vote .
I like the cut of Sego’s jib. Of course Tony (being the way he is (ggrr!)) has cosied up to all the right-wing leaders of Europe over the last 10 years. Although right-wing in the European context is pretty left-wing here! Hopefully GB can restore out ties with our sister parties in Europe (and also the Democrats in the US).
38 - isn’t there a qualifying period before a member can vote?
I thought it was 12 months - so John Mcd’s flood of new members won’t be able to vote either?
39. Are the boundaries the same of Castle ward in Carlisle CC?
41. I hope not - my mum was looking forward to voting for Gordon!
42. Yes, the May 2006 DC result is probably a better basis for comparison.
40 Good morning Andrea , yes the boundaries are the same .
For interest the result last May for the Carlisle CC election was LibDem 632 Lab 321 Con 149 Ind 69
5/39.
Maybe Mark would like to comment on the Libdem Councillor in his very own West Sussex who defected to the Conservatives yesterday?
45. Thanks Mark. Yesterday I looked at the CC result in that ward, yesterday I looked at that result and I wanted to be sure if the boundaries were the same
23: Stop playing
Prawn Dimarolo will be rewarded for her loyalty to Gordon with the lowest ranking cabinet position, but she wont be let near anything that matters…
46. Obviously a fool who cannot see the clear message from all the evidence that the Lib Dems are on course to triumph at the next GE.
41/43. Members can vote as soon as they join. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/6126004.stm
46 Haven’t seen anything on this Darren in the local press seems to have registered 0 on the Richter scale of importance unlike the Conservative councillors defecting to LibDems which cost them control of the council .
Well, The headline figures tend to support Mark Senior’s argument that what we are seeing is within the margin of error. That said the Cameron verses Gordon figures whilst possibly a bit false are interesting and seem to be forming a trend.
Come on Gordon, take over now!
51. Perhaps the Conservatives don’t gloat unlike when there is a defection the other way.
As for what happened in Crawley, it is temporary as the Conservatives are set to win back and increase their majority. The defector will be quietly seeing out her final year on the Council and the Libdems will be back to a ‘group’ of two!
48 - What is the lowest ranking cabinet position? (Duchy of Lancaster - given how long it was left vacant - clearly not that important!)
JNN is reporting exclusively for PB that the ARSE poll of polls, comprising ICM, CR, YouGov, Populus and MORI and weighted under the new Soames index gives :
Con 37.2% .. Lab 32% .. LibDem 19% .. Others 11.8%
The PISSED Wells/Baxter formula gives :
Con 288 seats .. Lab 275 .. LibDem 52 .. Others 35.
……………………….
Sources :
JNN - Jacobite News Network.
ARSE - Anonymous Random Selection of Electors.
PISSED - Political Intelligence, Seat Selector, Election Determinator.
54 I am always a bit surprised that Prime Ministers do not make more use of the Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster role. It’s the closest we have to a senior Government sinecure, and some foreign governments have had very powerful Ministers Without Portfolios. Why didn’t they give Prescott the job, instead of inventing a new one for him?
re 43. As I said, buy a vote
re 38 not sure If I do approve of OMOV for a party in government. Those voting Lab 2 years ago were voting for one led by TB for a full term. They were misled, tricked, whatever you wish. If GB gets in he has a mandate from the Labour party but not from the country.
re 36. As a member of Amicus I do have a vote and I won’t be voting for Brown. As a Lib Dem I find the situation ludicrous.
re 38. well at that rate it’ll only take 2.5-3.5 years to get back up to the 2002 level even if none of the current members fall off the perch in the interim.
57. Just like John Major. Or Harold Macmillan. Or Jim Callaghan. Come on - you do not need to go to the country when elected leader of the party in Government.
53: (quote) 51. Perhaps the Conservatives don’t gloat unlike when there is a defection the other way. (/quote)
And you’re not gloating about it at all, are you, Darren?
Nothing about it on the Chichester Conservatives website (but then, the latest news is from June - perhaps you should give them a call and wake them up?).
58. So you will be happy to sign the declaration that accompanies the ballot paper, stating that you are not a member of another political party and that you support Labour’s aims and values?
” This poll also picks up ICM’s LibDem decline. ”
Question to all (try to be honest and objective):-
In your neck of the woods and based on leaflets that are being put through doors, how would you rate your LOCAL Lib Dem campaign currently?
A) Focused on local issues with an overall positive message they are ‘getting things done in the ward/area’ or want to etc.
B) Some local action stories, but mostly negative attacks on Labour / and or Tories. A lot of ‘political’ content that includes national and area-wide issues.
C) Mostly agressive attacks on the opposition locally and nationally with a large amount of ‘political’ content and retoric.
I’m interested to see if there is a general more aggrssive stance being taken by the LD’s in recent times and if that could be affecting thier ‘friendly’ image at a local level?
Matt.
59.”As a member of Amicus I do have a vote and I won’t be voting for Brown. As a Lib Dem I find the situation ludicrous.”
If you find it ludicrous, you should opt out from the Labour affiliation
A little local election difficulty ahead for Labour in Glasgow :
http://www.theherald.co.uk/politics/news/display.var.1213886.0.0.php
63. The Cambridge LDs have replaced the “honed” bar chart with our MP - he is ballooning at an incredible rate - I fear for his tailor. I suspect they will have a before and after pic come the next election with the strap line ” size of LD support visibly increasing”
63 - Honestly - in my area - D) Non-Existant…
(But then I live in Lambeth, and the local Libs got a toasting at the council elections - some very divisive local politics going on. I think everyone is just keeping very quiet at the moment in a bid not to irritate the electorate ;-))
65. Jack, I notice the mention of the rumour about Gordon Jackson standing down…or maybe is it being pushed?
And anyway if the rumour is true, what is he waiting for? Elections are almost in 2 months time and it’s a marginal seat (Nicola has no excuse to fail to win it this time, especially with the 11% of SSP up for grab)
Btw, Hazel is set to declare her deputy leadership bid today…a little pic of HB:
http://www.manchesteronline.co.uk/ContentResources/41.plit/C_17_Articles_237002_BodyWeb_Detail_1_Image.jpg
61. James. I am not gloating. I find it amusing that the only Libdem comment is that we haven’t shouted from the rooftops about it.
68. ARGH!
63 Matt. I don’t tend to see too much of the yellow peril in either Herts or Scotland.
It may have something to do with my reputation for spit roasting Liberal Democrat canvassers !!
However I can report the odd sighting of the wretched species in Southdown (Harpenden) plus an unsubstantiated report of brave bar chart activity in Kinsbourne Green !!
In Scotland I normally declare open season on Liberal Democrats from early spring and we have a family rough shoot at Easter to flush the devils out and bag a brace of the yellow feathered birds. I have to say they always go to their demise twittering tunefully about the single transferable vote and tofu recipes !!
Do we have details for the LD Councilor who defected. As the ‘05 Labour PPC for Chichester I may have heard of them.
69 I was just pointing out that the local papers have not so far thought it worthwhile covering the story .
Re 63
D) Pointing at broken street lights and vandalism even though they are the councillors and not providing any contact numbers to report these. Then whining about the Tories.
What is the Focus template for March?
Re. 63 - moaning about public loos while reinstating an incredibly wasteful park and ride scheme.
I want to do some research on this, but my feeling is that the biggest negative impact on the Chancellors ratings came during the attempted putsch. Prior to that he got generally positive coverage, since then it’s been much more negative.
The Mori figures don’t give enough data to back this up- though it does tell you that Denis Healy had a 78% satifaction rating in 1978. Oh and that Cameron’s approval figures are almost exactly the same as Howards in June 04, but better than Howard’s a year in.
In any case, I tend to agree with David’s Nick P position, with the caveat that I thik that cameron is masively overated, and will perform much less well in the run up to an election.
54. There’s no official “lowest ranking department” though it’s often thought to be Chief Secretary.
Seniority gets decided on an ad hoc basis- a compination of job importance, length of time in Cabinet and so on.
I suppose those ministers who attend cabinet but are not ministers are the lowest ranking (ATM, McCartney, Hoon and Grocott)
OT and apologies if this has already been covered - but the Tommy Sheridan perjury case may be gathering steam:
http://www.theherald.co.uk/news/news/display.var.1206609.0.0.php
63 Can we all play this game ?
Does anyone live in an area with a Conservative council who
a ) have done anything positive for the people they represent
b ) have not introduced cuts in services for the elderly and/or disadvantaged or disabled .
c ) have not wrung their hands on introducing such cuts and blamed it all on the Labour government or previous Labour or LibDem control of the council even if it was 10 years ago .
Good point made on “First Post”
“Publicly Brownites welcome a contest - privately Brown must worry that a debate on the party’s future with a Blairite heavy-hitter could be damaging. Blairites know that if no challenger emerges, it will be much more difficult to criticise Brown later.”
Re 79, Mark, yes I do. For example my local district council builds areas for children to play, and has a youth “drop in ” center. As well as that it is giving grants to youth groups.
BTW, What happened in the byelections last night?
76.”Prior to that he got generally positive coverage, since then it’s been much more negative.” Britspin I could be wrong, but I thought that Gordon Brown’s personal ratings had been steadily declining for a couple of years now?
I wonder if it goes back to the run up to the last GE, since then I think the media coverage and therefore the public’s perception of the “real” relationship between Blair and Brown has increased considerable.
I also wonder if rather than attempting the coup against Blair, its the lack of action either to go for the job or to resign and challenge from backbenches which might have also had a negative impact on Brown?
63. A) all the way. But I live in Southwark and the council is a LD/Tory coalition, so its to be expected. Here its Labour whose leaflets just b!tch about the LDs, rather than the other way around.
63 - Matt, mostly A up here in Inverness and as a target seat my area seems to receive more ‘Chat’ magazine style publications than Focus leaflets. The Lib Dems can’t hit the Labour administration too hard as they are part of the coalition (not that they don’t try) but we usually get vomit-inducing leaflets focusing on local issues (parks, pensions, post offices, Iraq (sic)) and stuffed with pictures of ‘wee little Craigie’ or ‘wee little Danny’ surrounded by old grannies, young children, police officers etc etc.
I think our last one even had a recipe page for the candidate’s favourite pie recipe (although not a explanation of previous dodgy pie charts) - I might be wrong on this though.
I would assume that these remain effective in maintaining the ‘nice image’ among the electorate. The Jack W approach does sound tempting though for the future sake of my stomach.
As recently as 2003 the former Mixenden ward in Calderdale returned a Liberal Democrat. Now itis 150 votes.
” Can we all play this game ? ”
It’s not a game… I’m genuinely interested. It’s not a knock at the LD’s. I honestly think they are shifting position, just need proof outside my area.
Matt.
67. The voters in Lambeth who gave the Lib Dems a toasting should be pleased to note that it has taken the reinstalled Labour administration only seven months to give themselves huge pay increases, and reverse the improvements in CPA performance ratings that had been achieved by the previous administration, according to yesterday’s CPA report.
Lambeth is now the worst council in London, and among the five worst in England.
Ho hum. I’m moving.
” It may have something to do with my reputation for spit roasting Liberal Democrat canvassers !! ”
Blimey ! - now there’s a mental image I’d rather not have…
Matt.
71. “It may have something to do with my reputation for spit roasting Liberal Democrat canvassers !”
My complaint about local LibDems is that they distribute a free newspaper, that bears no obvious markings identifying it as a LibDem publication.
63 - I’ve had pretty much nothing from the Lib Dems here in Exeter. I’ve even had more from the Tories, and the Lib Dems are a close third, so I would have thought it worth their while to put a bit of effort in.
Bradshaw and the local Labour councillors seem very well organised. Certainly winning the leaflet battle by a country mile at present.
Declaration of conflict of interest: I recently joined the Green Party.
Mike, you are throwing money onto an ebbing tide, mate.
Far better put your cash on the absolutely scrummy Helen Mirren for the Oscars on Sunday. Gosh, is it me, or is she more attractive than most 21 year olds ?
“It may have something to do with my reputation for spit roasting Liberal Democrat canvassers !”
Take a photo and get it in a leaflet with the caption, ” Local Lib Dem stuck between a rock and a hard place “
71.JackW, that will explain why the Libdems have been very very quiet recently. Obviously keeping their heads down in readiness for the “open season on Liberal Democrats from early spring”
85.Stephen B, sounds just like the type of literature we get in Aberdeenshire although the last one did have the famous bar chart in honour of the up coming elections.
89 Matt. The crackling is especially fine !! Tttttssssssssss
78. I always welcome SSP trials…they tend to be entertaining!
85 Although true most of the old Mixenden ward is now in Warley ward and not I and M .
96. Now JackW, in fairness I bet you have something equally “nice” planned for Lab/SNP/Con canvassers should they stray onto your driveway.
97 Andrea. A SSP trial …. one of the great joys of life !!
By Chris Mead, PA Elections Editor
Labour held off a strong challenge from the BNP in a key council by-election.
In what could be an indicator of the far right party’s prospects for May’s main polls, Labour’s Judith Gannon held a seat at Illingworth and Mixenden, Halifax in West Yorkshire’s Calderdale Borough.
The two other ward councillors are BNP members which means it will be defending the seat up for election there in the main contests.
The BNP has had mixed fortunes this month, slipping in a Burnley by-election last week but earlier coming from nowhere to poll more than 30% at Nuneaton and Bedworth. However, that authority is among the few not voting in May.
In the only other contest this week, Liberal Democrats easily defended Cumbria County Council’s previously marginal Carlisle Castle division.
Tories saw their overall lead slip this month.
Analysis of nine comparable contests suggest their projected nationwide margin over Labour is 6% compared with 18.5% in January.
A calculation based on six results where all three major parties fought both times shows a close line-up: C 33.2%, Lib Dem 32.7%, Lab 28.0%.
There were exceptional circumstances in at least three contests but Conservatives must be hoping their dip is a blip otherwise they could be facing losses in May for the first time in 11 years instead of the widely expected gains.
RESULTS:
Calderdale Borough - Illingworth and Mixenden: Lab 1104, BNP 1034, C 525, Lib Dem 150, Ind 68. (May 2006 - BNP 1075, Lab 840, C 682, Lib Dem 296, Ind 124). Lab hold. Swing 5% BNP to Lab.
Cumbria County - Castle: Lib Dem 653, Lab 222, C 117, Green 29. (May 2005 - Lib Dem 937, Lab 853, C 349). Lib Dem hold. Swing 19.2% Lab to Lib Dem.
93. Best odds available on Helen Mirren are 1/14. Hills have already paid out on her and are taking no more bets on her. I tried backing her fairly soon after the film was released and was offered 6/4. Wish I had taken it. Best initial odds apparently were 6/1.
Is it me or is Tony Blair currently saying that Wales should vote Labour by listing all their policies that the evil Tories would scrap, without mentioning that some of the policies are opposed by his own government in England?
Apparently Plaid are threatening legal action if Labour keeps on saying it would form a coalition with the Tories in Wales. Rhodri Morgan was interviewed saying “I’m hardly shaking in my boots”!!!
The truth is that Ieuan Wynn Jones chickened out during the Welsh budget and he can’t say he will go into a coalition with the hated Tories or else he’ll lose votes.
99 ChrisD. I’m at a loss with the Conservatives as they are as common as muck in Harpenden but as rare as hens teeth in my neck of Scotland !!
Any SNP in Harpenden would be stuffed and mounted but in Scotland I regard them as a spanner short of a tool box and thus not fair game.
Jack W, are you in Harpenden North? My old boss is a Tory Councillor there.
7, 8 et al. No, I don’t speak any oriental languages, unless you count ‘do you do happy finish?’ as an authentic Eastern phrase.
But the Bangkok Post - English speaking newspaper - had a round-up of foreign press reactions to the UK troop withdrawal, including the German paper I cited. The tone from every source was uniformly contemptuous of Blair and his New Labour war in Iraq.
Also I’ve been watching a lot of foreign news, al-Jazeera, some Anglophone euronews - again a universal tone of withering contempt for our adventuring in the Middle East. It’s bracing and enlightening.
Sometimes I do think you have to step back to get a perspective on your own country. I’ve been calming down about Iraq recently, out of sheer weariness. Also its boring banging on about it the whole time. And this site encourages discussion of political minutiae, in the main - which is fine, and fun - but it means anyone talking about bigger stuff can sound like the club bore, or the mad guy shouting on the top deck of the bus.
But Iraq should make us mad, it should make us shout. Millions have been killed and displaced by what we have done. It is arguably the most shameful episode in British history since the Irish Famine.
It is an incalculable disaster, politically, militarily, strategically, and morally. And Labour did it, with disgraceful help from the Tories. But all the MPs who voted for the war are now trying to slime their way out of the mess.. blaming anyone but themselves and their own myopic stupidity.
There. I’m off to Burma now.
A bit more information on the by-election in Carlisle for the Castle ward, the last time this county council seat was up, Labour was within 80 votes, this time results are:
Libdems 653
Lab 222
Con 117
two years ago at the county elections, the results where:
LibDems 937
Lab 853
Cons 349
This was a critical by-election as a Labour win could have broke apart the fragile con lib partnership on the county council
apologies, realise it was already posted………..
Have people seen teh cover of today’s Sun.
http://www.thesun.co.uk/
Exposes the risks Cameron is running
110. Jonathan, it puts him on the front cover of the Sun and the Guardian.
Answering my own query earlier, Yougov have UKIP at 4% and the BNP at 3%. There appears to be clear UKIP infiltration as this is shown up in no real elections anywhere, the BNP figure is, unfortunately, more likely to be a fair reflection of support given their good showing in elections around the country.
Yougov clearly have work to do.
111. its not bad publicity, Reid has got worse, and if you read about the kid, he says he has been on drugs since he was 10, maybe Cameron and him have some common ground after all
I’m not a Labour voter, but I still know people who voted and would vote Labour with Blair in charge, but not if he is replaced. I’m not convinced that the lower vote that Labour seems to get in opinion polls with Brown in charge is purely down to his unpopularity or Scottishness. I still think that Blair attracts a lot of Middle England voters(who won’t vote LAbour when he goes regardless of who replaces him), even if he is very unpopular with liberals and left leaning voters.
We need to have caution over these ‘Gordon’ polls. Whilst they are very probably accurate, they actually don’t make too much difference right now other than for people trying to a) get a decent rival running for the Labour leadership and/or b) get him to go to the country early.
It’s going to take more than these polls to make a difference to Gordon’s ascent, so those trying their damnest are wasting their breath. Reid was the one person who I felt 6-8 months ago might run, but he’s clearly out. That leaves Miliband who might though no-one really seems to know, including young David himself. He’s young and, if he did run, can comeback again after failing this time round particularly, as I currently believe is likely, Labour lose the next GE and end up in opposition.
The damage of such polls and indeed of the publicity surrounding them is probably firmly down the line when he Gordon ensconced in No.10.
89. I am not quite sure that Jack W is quite up to speed with the more contemporary implications of spitroasting.
http://www.urbandictionary.com
Chrisco, I was thinking the same thing.
113 Good publicity. Come on. Just imagine if it had been Brown instead of Cameron. You would have a thread on here devoted to it and Tory posters would be having a field day about Gordon’s failed media spin.
In my mind it just goes to show that in some people minds, the sheer site of St David is enough to make their hearts flutter.
It’s an interesting thing politics. Very unsymmetrical. I am sure that there is a clue in this somewhere on how to deal with Cameron.
60. Before the 1955, 1974O and 1987 elections we were not greeted with wall-to-wall broadcasts of Eden, Wilson and Thatcher announcing this will be my last general election, but [quivering lip, moistened eye, breaking voice] I will serve a full term in the next parliament.
re 64. I usually do.
114. I have lost count of the former Labour people who have said they may vote Labour again - but never with Blair in charge. I think these are the mystical Lab - Lib Dem switchers who switched due to Iraq. Speaking to one of them last week, he says he will come back with Gordon. I suppose it’s just the company I keep!
One down - several hundred thousand to go!
118. yes keep hunting for that clue. I am going with Mike Smithson’s argument that the more DC is in the press the more his popularity rises. Its not overly negative the article and i am relaxed about it. I was less relaxed about the Bullingdon pictures though in comparison.
76. ‘my feeling is that the biggest negative impact on the Chancellors ratings came during the attempted putsch.’
Totally agree. That photograph of him in the car smiling will stick with me and others for evermore.
103 Augustus. Harpenden North Rural.
116/117.
re 114 A fair point…but offset by a group who will only vote Lab again when Blair is gone. What we know not is which group is bigger.
116.” am not quite sure that Jack W is quite up to speed with the more contemporary implications of spitroasting!”
maybe he’s and that’s exactly what naughty Jack does with poor LD canvassers.
Wait for the Scotland on Sunday next headline “Jacobite Leader in roasting shame”
Reactions:
Tommy: I wasn’t there. I didn’t take part
Mrs Sheridan: is Jack W as hairy as my husband?
Rosie Kane and Carolyne Leckie: “he confessed it to us. We’ve records about it”
Alex Salmond: “it’s a snub to us! Why didn’t SNP canvasser got the same treatment? It’s nationalist discrimination”
The Evening Standard reports this poll: “In a huge shift since the general election…(Gives the figures) The breakthrough was accompanied by further evidence that Mr. Brown could harm Labour’s support once Tony Blair quits office.”
I have been wondering - just out of curiosity do we have any hypotheticals from 1990 that polled the potential impact of a Major/Heseltine premiership v. Kinnock?
Patrick Wintour writing in the Guardian:
“It shows the public believe the Tories are more likely to run the economy well than Labour - by 30% to 27% - for the first time in more than 10 years”
first time in 10 years…maybe he missed December yougov poll and the Novermber yougov poll
126 Andrea.
Meanwhile it seems that David Cameron was a greater hit than expected when he visited Manchester as the “hug a hoodie” policy clearly had the local yobbery hugging their todgers in masturbaTORY congratulation :
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/6389277.stm
107 - you have a very benign view of British history.
Appeasement seems like a glaring omission.
I see Alistair Campbell, writing in ‘The Times’ today, comes out with that hoary old point of Labour’s being so much further ahead in the polls when they were in opposition:
‘As for the polls, given what Mr Blair has been through of late, the shock is not that the Tories are ahead, but that Labour’s ratings have not hit the floor. I can remember when we were 29 points ahead in a newspaper poll. Now, that’s what I call a lead.’
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/guest_contributors/article1426614.ece
Just spin do we think, or is Alistair really trying to be a serious, objective political commentator who just needs to consult PB.com?
Re 132 Robusticus
When did Alistair Campbell and truth co-exist in the same sentence?
131. The big difference between Iraq and 1930s Germany was that Iraq wasn’t re-arming enough to be a threat.
David Herdson at 9 (PbCom’s voice of reason)
These polls simply reflect exposure and profile. Tories (commentator) beleive that at the moment increased expopsure is damaging Brown, while Lab (Roger) believe that Brown’s higher profile (as PM) will raise Lab back up.
I agree with both- Brown’s increased exposure currently is damaging him. He is viewed with mistrust- too ambitious, too motivated by self interest, and increasingly starting to look slighlty spun.
However, when Brown is PM- all this will change. His profile will change. He will be viewed and assessed as PM- not some chancellor wannabee who is itching to get his hands on the prize. All that will be forgotten. Brown should not take notice of any polls at the moment because any Labour prospective candidate would be left languishing vis a vis Cameron now.
These polls, whilst exciting the political geaks amongst us, have no relevance on how things will be.
128 - A long long time ago and the memory plays trisks, but I’m sure that there was indeed such a poll (in the Sunday Telegraph?) after Mrs T had announced her resignation but before the final ballot which showed that John Major, rather than Heseltine, would do far better against Kinnock, perhaps even giving a Tory lead.
There was speculation at the time that these findings were a substantial boost to Major, belying the then conventional wisdom that Heseltine was more popular with voters as a whole.
Now Andrea will appear and state this is all a figment of deluded Hershamite imagination
134 - So? There’s a pretty big difference between Iraq and the Irish potato famine as well.
132. That would have been a poll before ‘97, when the tories were lead to their worst defeat in 100 years. I’m not sure even Brown could achieve something on that scale.
136 - I don’t know about that but I’ve got a book on Gallup polls -> 2000.
Amusingly on Nov 21-22 1990 John Major had 3% support as the next leader of the Conservative party. On Nov 23-24 he had 27%. By Nov 25-26 he was neck and neck with Heseltine on 37%!
If any minor Labour cabinet ministers are wondering if Gordon can be beaten they could do worse that draw inspiration from that
125 - It is not unreasonably hypothesised that the Blairophiles are more beneficially distributed in marginal seats than the Blairophobes. Given that New Labours performance was best in the Marginals at the last general election, this may be more important than a simple numerical comparison.
139 - Am I correct in recalling that Thatcher enthusiasticaly promoted Major as her preferred successor in order to stop Heseltine? If so, then it would demonstrate that Blair’s failure to pick a non-Brown heir is as gutless as Brown’s reluctance to press his claim for the top job.
Neither of them are prepared to stick their necks out in order to take control of the future.
139 alex. “By Nov 25-26 he was neck and neck with Heseltine …”
And presumably by Nov 27 he was necking with Edwina !!
“draw inspiration from that”
The first, last and only time anyone drew inspiration from John Major!
Neil Gerrard MP will stand down at next election
http://www.johnmajor.co.uk/majorppp.jpg
Labour ought to read this and worry a bit. It all sounds familiar.
I’m surprised no-one has yet mentioned the latest deckchair shuffling by NuLab as they propose to dispose of the Serious Fraud Office, particularly given the recent shenanigans with the BAe fraud investigation.
It hasn’t even appeared on a certain blog by BW!
Smacks of a typical New Labour approach to “unwelcome” news, much as when they decided to abolish the post of Chief Inspector of Prisons.
Just tracking back a little…if the young fellow pointing an imaginary weapon at Dave had been an adorable little scamp, it could have made the tie-less one look a trifle silly, the victim of a harmless prank. Unfortunately, he’s a total scumbag and no-one’s going to have any sympathy for him or his charmless antics.
146. Had that been at the Labour conference he would have been arrested under the prevention of terrorism act
137. Ah yes, I skimmed the posts too quickly and missed your point. My fault!
Re 144, Yes Jonathan, it is interesting to remember how well things had started to go by 1997, and that the public really didn’t care.
Re 145, Timothy, Actually I had noticed that, but am still trying to beat soem information out of the HO on the merging of Asset Recoery organisation with SOCA.
146.Thought that picture was very iconic, and shows the problems we are facing.
Please sir,may I join the “Brown Bashing” campaign ?
He must be stopped at all costs
Where is Milliband when I need him?
http://www.sopo.org/cgi-bin/news.cgi?actio…amp;websiteId=2
Gordon Brown’s £1.1 million spin budget
Sector: Central Government
Date: Fri 23rd Feb 2007, 12:12:45
UK - Theresa May has accused Gordon Brown of breaking the Government’s own Whitehall rules, after he appointed a twelfth “spin doctor” to his political team.
And the Shadow Leader of the Commons protested: “This just goes to show that under Gordon Brown, Labour’s culture of spin is going to get worse and worse and cost more and more.”
Mrs May threw down the gauntlet after it emerged that the Chancellor has now recruited one dozen special advisers - at a cost of more than £1.1 million a year - when Cabinet Office rules are supposed to limit the number of political “spin doctors” allowed by each Cabinet minister to two.
With Mr Brown’s team of special advisers now at the equivalent strength to supply six Whitehall departments, Mrs May called for a special Commons debate on the subject, and said: “The Chancellor of the Exchequer seems keen to present himself as a breath of fresh air. But how can he claim to end the culture of spin when last week he appointed a twelfth special adviser?”
Mrs May said: “The Ministerial Code says that ‘Cabinet Ministers may each appoint up to two Special Advisers’. But the Chancellor now has twelve, at a cost to the taxpayer of more than £1.1million. This just goes to show that under Gordon Brown, Labour’s culture of spin is going to get worse and worse and cost more and more.”
4 of them have been assigned to spin the bad news on the trade balance in time for the March budget.
I feel honoured, Blair’s politburo have e-mailed me
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