Hold the date - Monday April 16th
February 25th, 2007
The Political Punter, which is being published by Harriman House.
The venue is made possible by the sponsorship of our MP contributors, John Hemming (LD), Stewart Jackson (CON) and Nick Palmer (LAB). Our thanks to them.
Politicos will, at its own cost, be inviting along a number of journalists for the launch, so if you attend you not only get the chance to insult personally many of those you have been insulting all year on the site, but you will also be able to air your views to the denizens of the press. How can you miss this opportunity?
No formal arrangements have been made for drinks afterwards but we expect a fair few of us will shuffle across to St Stephens Tavern for the evening. Naturally anybody who cannot make the launch itself will be very welcome to catch up with us there.
Afternoon refreshments will be served at the launch and to cover the cost of this we are charging £13.50 per head. There will be no other charge. I need to firm up on numbers as soon as possible and provide names to The House, so I must ask all those who intend to come for a definite commitment by Friday 6th April at the latest – if you can do so sooner, it will be a big help to me. Please email your confirmations to me at arklebar@talktalk.net
PB has a small budget to contribute towards wine at the launch and if there is any left over, we’ll stick it behind the bar at the pub. Naturally if anybody feels moved to contribute personally to the alcoholic side of things, we will be very grateful for any offerings.
I look forward to hearing from as many of you as possible. Politico’s reckon they will bring along at least 25. I’d like to think PB can top that. Bust a gut to get there; it should be worth it.
Peter Smith (aka Peter the Punter)
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alas I shall not be able to attend. I hope all who do will enjoy it.
Have fun!
)
(and buy many Mike’s books
Please make sure Nick Cohen is there!!
The only british paper I have seen for the last week was Fridays Daily Mail -(The back of Virgin planes are not well provided for) - but interested to read that their columnist was advocating legalising drugs.
3. Journalists favour easier access to intoxicating substances…now there’s a shock.
I think I can make it this year (usually I’m in the middle of something at school but this is during the Easter break)! It’ll be nice to put faces to (some) names at last.
I would love to go thank you if Roger is going too. I would like to have a words with him.
Check out Andrew Rawnsely’s piece in the Observer, and if you want a lighter moment, the transcript of Rory Bremner’s little conversation with Margaret Beckett [on the Guardian website only, I think].
Although saying that Patricia Hewitt is out of her depth is a little like saying that bears don’t use Andrex…
Count me in.
Incidentally Peter can you offer me better than 11/10 Chelsea to beat Arsenal today in 90 minutes.
I am looking for a 4 figure wager.
Didier Drogba to be the first goalscorer.
Have a good afternoon Peter.
Cheers
7 - I am wondering if the lack of challengers to Brown, contrasting with the huge field for deputy leader, is a biggest indication we’ve got that leading Labour figures think that they are inevitably going to do badly at the next election.
7 The Observer editorial actually taunts senior ministers for failing to take the “once in a lifetime” chance to challenge GB for the leadership.
http://observer.guardian.co.uk/politics/story/0,,2021085,00.html
The pressure on Milliband to enter the race is going to continue to build. It’s been said here that the papers want a contest for the sake of sales and I’m sure to some extent that’s right. But the left-leaning broadsheets, in light of ICMs recent findings, now seem increasingly keen to promote a contest for the sake of the Labour party.
I’m sure Brown will win but have just put more on Milliband to lay-off later.
10 - the article is right in the suggestions that for somebody to challenge for the Leadership now, win, and lose the next election would basically end their career (in Miliband’s case, almost before it’s started). On the other hand, barring absolute Labour wipeout (and/or a belief that the Conservatives won’t lose power after regaining it for well over a decade), there isn’t much to lose from holding fire. Either Brown wins the election and there will be a vacancy within 5 years, or he loses and a vacancy immediately appears as leader of the Opposition with a shot at Prime Minister at least 4 years later (possibly sooner in the event of a hung parliament and con/Lib coalition).
5/6/8 - UK Paul/Mystic Moon/Prince Monalulu
Can I ask you all to email me as confirmation of your intentions? I can then give you my address for payment.
Mystic - I think Roger is sure to be there unless off filming somewhere.
Prince - No deal! The amount is too large, I don’t do football and I think Chelsea will win!! LOL
11. Brown has made plenty of enemies along the way. These are now being joined by those who fear that his succession is not in Labour’s best interests. Additionally, the media need to keep finding something new to say regarding what is basically a static situation for another few months. For all these reasons, the pressure on someone, anyone, to stand against Brown, will be sustained. Currently, the most likely candidate is Milliband.
He doesn’t need to succumb to the pressure but the very fact of it and the reporting of it is likely, I think, to drive his price lower.
Monday after the Grand National.
14 So we should all have bags of money…
Peter the P. Well done and thanks for sorting this. I would love to come and will try to do so. Will let you know as soon as I can via your email address.
James F completely agree with your views expressed at 10 and 13. Every day now a different political journalists calls for a heavyweight contest and the pressure may well prove irresistible. GB now 1.27 and Miliband 12/1 with Betfair.
Are you allowed to promote a commercial product (ie the book) at a House of Commons event?
Peter as I have said by email, count me in!
I look forward to seeing some people in person as well!
re 17. Good point -we need to check that out.
There’s an interesting line in the editorial, that other would-be candidates “do not think Gordon Brown capable of political generosity.”
Humph. That’s an understatement. Brown is supposedly one of the most vindictive politicians aroubd today. Why cross him now when you can wait five years.
Ah, yes and another thing, can one purchase a signed copy of the book at the event?
From a :
“The book launch was to be held in the Jubilee Room in the Houses of Parliament. But the event was cancelled at short notice by Commons authorities because it was a commercial venture. But such restrictions are not applied to MPs from mainstream parties. As George Galloway told the press conference, ‘If I was to take you now to the dining rooms in the bowels of the House of Commons you would find virtually every one of them booked by a member of parliament sponsored by a commercial company.’ An Easy Thing will be followed by The Battle for Bethnal Green, an account of George Galloway’s historic election victory written by George and Ron McKay, a book which is certain to ‘burn, cause controversy and get people talking’.“
Unfortunately I’m in France over that week-end and wasn’t coming back till Tuesday 17th but I’ll see if I can rearrange. Otherwise I’ll expect a head and shoulders plus a full length of Mystic Moon standing next to Printz!!
*From this website
For anyone watching tonight’s Oscars here is my best shot(repeated from another thread). I should add that I’ve seen all the films I’m backing and in nearly every case all their competitors!
Forest Whitaker best actor Helen Mirren best actress Babel best film Scorcese best director (The Departed) Best supporting actor Alan Arkin Best supporting actress Kate Blanchett Best adapted screenplay Patrick Marber (Notes on a Scandal) Best original screenplay Guillermo Arriaga (Babel) and best cinematography Guillermo Navarro (Pans Labyrinth)
Kate Hudson might just pip Kate Blanchett (’Cos she’s an American hero!) ‘The Departed’ could win best film with Alejandro Inarritu the director of ‘Babel’ winning best director. (If I was voting I’d give best film and best director to Babel but Hollywood don’t love foreigners that much!)
Have you extended an invitation to Commander Yates of Scotland Yard?
26 He is not a journalist, Barry; nor, to the best of my knowledge, has he ever posted on politicalbetting.com . He therefore fails to qualify for admission.
25 Roger, as you know some time ago I called a halt on the public mocking of your ability as a tipster and to show my sincerity I have placed a number of bets based on your recommendations. However, if they fail to deliver, believe me, retribution will be swift and brutal.
We know where you live.
Oh dear! This has to be my last attempt at redeeming myself! But with my luck that dreadful film ‘Little Miss Sunshine’ will sweep the board!
A drink at Grouchos if you win? (and If I can get there on the 16th)
And I was just about to post about how Little Miss Sunshine may get another award or two……..
29 LOL !
Drink at Grouchos sounds good, win, lose or draw.
I’d also hazard a guess at Jennifer Hudson for best supporting actress.
25/32 - so what’s Kate Hudson up for?
re 25. I laid a tidy sum on Helen Mirren weeks ago at 1.12 in the likelihood that the price would drift. I couldn’t believe she was that dead cert given the academy members are such a quirky lot. Needless to say the price has continued to tighten so I shall sit fingers crossed in the hope of an upset and a nice return.
19/22: yes, that’s a possible snag about this location - we’re checking it out.
33. Dreamgirls-in which she was only average but she got the part via a talent contest so there is a good chance she might get the award for best supporting actress
36. Roger, I think Alex is teasing you as it’s Jennifer Hudson and not Kate Hudson who is nominated
37 - Indeed Andrea. It does slightly undermine Roger’s affection for having seen all these films that he couldn’t tell the difference
Good to see that this once impartial site has ’sold out’ to Tory TV advertising !! It wouldn’t happen on the BBC Website ! Or will it?
39 - ?
Oh right - the Ken Livingstone thing
I will be there and look forward to meeting other PB’ers!
Re 39 Phillip, That is message space advertising, it helps Mike pay for the site. It is on a lot of political blogs, including some Labour ones!
I’ll be there for the launch.
(Peter - I’ve e-mailed you directly to confirm.)
27. He might be the alter ego of Snowflake, or Roger
Could Murdoch’s long love affair with Blair / New Labour now be at an end?
http://www.newsoftheworld.co.uk/story_pages/news/news4.shtml
I won’t be able to attend what sounds like a great event, but I hope Mike, his family and everyone else has a great time.
I am looking forward to reading the book and finally getting my head around this political betting malarkey.
36. Thanks Andrea. Apart from in ‘Dreamgirls’ I’ve never seen Jennifer Hudson before. So I hope her Oscar makes up for me calling her Kate!!
Barry. Have you ever thought about posting on the subject of politics? As a PPC you could show some interest. You’d be surprised how many of your potential constituents might read this and all they get are daft remarks.
I have just read the leader in the Observer, it can’t make pleasant reading in Labour circles.
Is the left turning on itself? Is Gordon Brown’s personality in danger of ripping the party apart?
BTW, Thanks to JamesF for the link.
50.Benedict have you got a link, is it from the Sunday edition?
Re 51, ChrisD, the link is at post 10, but I reproduce it here:
http://observer.guardian.co.uk/politics/story/0,,2021085,00.html
Yes it is from Sundays Observer. I hear Monday’s is a bit thin
52.Good article Benedict, thanks for the link.
Here is a link to an article written a few weeks ago by Charlie Whelan.
http://www.strathspey-herald.co.uk/news/categoryfront.php/id/45/Whelan’s_World.html
53. Thought the article about “Police hold steady against No 10 spin machine” was interesting”.
Re 54, Yes it is an interesting article. At work I always instruct people to only write in emails what they are happy for the subject of the email to see.
I also point out that is the best way to think and talk about people as well. After all using negative terms about people breeds a negative attitude towards them which will show even if only subconsciously.
55. It did sound as if Gordon Brown was not happy about his trip to India being over shadowed by Jade Goody & Co!
Re 56, ChrisD, when that happened I did laugh!
Some advice for Labour MP’s in marginal seats, interesting that its the last ICM poll whichs seems to be under the microscope so soon after “that” Guardian front page!
I noted that he used the word “recovery” when describing the conservatives ratings for Populus and YouGov?
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/tim_hames/article1437675.ece
Also some opinion about MP’s in marginals who are not feeling very optimistic about job security at the moment, can Brown reassure them?
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article1438012.ece