PBC outpoints the Brandindex market yet again
February 27th, 2007
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Are IG On The Run?
When IG sportingly created a Politicians’ Popularity market, it doubtless expected to make a little profit from its collaboration with YouGov. The trading is understandably light and one suspects that most of the punting is coming from PB regulars. If so, one has to wonder if IG is making any money at all. This is the fifth week of competition and our fourth success. The other week was a draw.
Last week’s main recommendation to buy Alan Johnson was right in principle but unless you caught the early price, you will have made a small loss. The two more tentative suggestions to sell Benn and Blair scored big time and the profit for the week was 3.4 points (£34 to a £10 stake).
This week I am recommending a further sell of Benn at 90.3. No news is bad news for the Deputy Leader candidate and he has been little seen of late. Hague is also a sell at 95.3 for much the same reason. The man is virtually invisible. It follows that Cameron at 90.0 is a buy, as he hogs the camera in, mostly, favorable circumstances.
All three bets are to a 1 point stake. Let’s hope the success continues….or maybe not. We don’t want IG to give up, do we? Toodle pip
Peter the Punter
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Well done Peter for this.
May I be excused to go off thread. Old Gordy must have been smoking some Eton skunk. I am less worried by these poor polls than the ludicrous proposals he is conjuring on asylum seekers. Is he trying to out do the Tories on sheer stupidity- this makes the “ship em off to an island” policy seen utterly coherent?
This must clearly count as one of the most whacky announcements made by government in living memory. Dear oh dear. Someone is losing touch, and quickly.
Back on thread- these charts are really quite interesting. I (sad life that I lead) am even beginning to look forward to the weekly update, although I still cannot quite understand how one makes money on them.
4 Sorry peter for taking it off thread- didn’t realise that mine was the first post.
Anyway will people start to talk about Peter’s sound predictions, rather than being distracted by what is happening to Gordon’s brain.
I think Peter will do well again this week. Not sure he will win much on Hague or Benn but a small profit is better than a loss.
Flattering profile of Cruddas here:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/6383069.stm
Presumably he’s not on the list because no one’s heard of him!
3 - Tyson - “I still cannot quite understand how one makes money on them.”
It’s generally a team effort between Mike, Aaron, Andrea and myself, although this week, for technical reasons, it’s pretty much Andrea and me. We have a theory on how to make money on this market and so far it has worked. Damned if I’m putting it up here though. Rumour has it Anthony Wells can read.
You can email me though if you like.
4. Oh…and if going off thread were a hanging offence, I’d have been strung up long ago.
3 - what pleasant experience, being able to agree with every single word of one of your posts Tyson
I should understand all this as I did a Derivatives unit at uni and seemed to understand it then, but now it always leaves me baffled.
6. I see he’s a fan of the excellent Curb Your Enthusiasm. Good stuff.
Peter
Perhaps you could highlight the big movers. It would be good to see where large swings have been so that we can see where the opportunity is to bet on the less prominent/rising stars.
Am I right in thinking that this is like buying shares, i.e. if you buy someone can you hold onto them until their price changes or is it all resolved at the end of the week?
Thanks
11 Yes, Mike, it’s exactly like buying shares.
Not so easy to highlight the movements but if you want to send me an email, I’ll send you the spreadsheet I use.
FTSE down 2.2% today - ouch !
13 It’s the Emerging Markets, Jamie - been overpriced for ages. Much better value on the BrandIndex!
14. Better value than the horses too ?
15 LOL!
We didn’t exactly cover ourselves in glory, did we? Ah well, back to the day job.
16. Tips are tips - not free money
16 PtP. It seems my afternoon nap was more productive than yours !!
Zzzzzzzzzzzz
7 peter- thanks for the offer.
18. Nil Desperandum, Jack!
Neil from previous thread. Yeah that 4/1 on Wilson is very attractive on mathematics alone. Have to say that I’ve stuck to my money at 9/4 on the DUP topping the 1st preferences in North Down. I notice its come in to 2/1 with Eastwoods. Took 6/4 as well on no restoration of devolution on the specified day and its in as well to 6/5, though I believe 6/4 is still available from Paddy Power.
Other than that I’m still trying to get my head around this election, its been fairly quiet on the stump. All I can see so far is modest DUP gain overall of 1-2, SF steady or down 1-2. SDLP rock solid, UUP god knows, Alliance staying same or 1 gain.
I’m wondering if turnout will be a problem.
Humble apologies if this has already been done, but harking back to Jamie at 16, and only if you have 10 minutes spare, here’s an excellent reason why we should all tread carefully out there:
http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showthread.html?t=386063
and
http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showthread.html?t=386241
Again, sorry if this is old news, but it’s a sobering reminder of the pitfalls of all of this, and all the more reason to place our faith in the Sages Smithson and Smith who actually do know what they’re talking about…
7 - Is it r……..n t. t.e m..n (or n……e s….l c………n).
22. Zoinks !
9 kingbongo- not a good day for Labour- polls, Brown venturing into cloud cuckoo land, Blair denying any sense of responsibility for causing the chaos in Iraq (if I went into a prison, took out the governer and all the wardens and left the place to its own devices- and then when the place submerged into chaos blame the prisoners for being troublemakers- nothing to do with me guv).
The first role of a state is to provide security- why many peoples have often abdicated personal freedoms quite freely to totalitarian regimes- because they want to feel secure, more than anything else. To blame the breach on security in Iraq on terrorists is beyond ridiculous.
Brown’s immigration statement today resonated with the last days of the Tory govt in the 1990’s- rubbishy, gimmicky, tired- to an extent not even believing in things anymore. Blair is just irrelevant, and there is no person of substance in the Labour Party who is willing to make a contest to be PM- for heavens sake- this is to be PM- if Brown comes out with any more of this drivel the prize is there for the taking.
21 - I was speaking to some Northern Ireland Greens at the Irish Green Party conference last weekend and they were quietly optimistic about their chances in North Down. I was very surprised to see 4/1 being quoted by Eastwood’s.
22. “place our faith”? - surely the lesson here is to do your thinking for yourself?
Though Mike & Peter do a great job indicating the more profitable lines of thought to pursue!
25. Exactly Tyson - Labour is out of touch and out of ideas, looking more and more like the fag end of the last Tory administration. The same electoral oblivion is set to follow. May elections will be carnage.
28 Which are going to be worse for Labour, the Scottish, Welsh or local English election results? It’s just over 60 days to the elections in May - have any of the Party spinmeisters (from any party) started to define Good, Bad and Indifferent results for them or for their opponenets yet?
25. Tyson, as a Conservative who had to live through the worst excesses of the Major years I can promise you that your party is just nowhere near that level of desperation, at least not yet.
While I agree that Browns announcement is empty tosh it’s just not in the same league as the ‘cones hotline’, for instance.
The fact is that administrations, good or bad, have a lifecycle of about ten years and the Labour one is coming to an end.
The last Tory one should have ended in about 1992 on a reasonable high note but through the sheer bloody minded determination of the then Tory MP’s to remain in office allied to the Labour party’s wilful decision to soldier on with Kinnock conspired to keep us in for a fateful, disasterous and ultimately pretty pointless fourth term.
In the long run Labour will be far better off losing the next election, believe me.
28- whatever happens we have seen over the last 10 years it is not good for any one of our major parties to go into meltdown. Whatever the outcome of the next election a large majority from any angle serves little purpose.
Labour’s appetite for power still exists- I think it is this interregnum period that is particualrly damaging, and almost forcing Brown into making these commments to get some publicity.
Augustus 29- I think if Labour holds Scotland that will be good- anything else (including a councillor wipe out) is liveable with- the loss of scotalnd to the SNP would be disatrous.
31. ‘whatever happens we have seen over the last 10 years it is not good for any one of our major parties to go into meltdown’
I could not disagree more. Labour’s meltdown is long overdue. This clapped out bunch of pseudo marxists should have been consigned to the dustbin of history in the early 1980s. Hopefully, they now will be.
22 Ouch! No, I hadn’t seen that before, Andy. It’s a healthy reminder of the potential risks of Betfair.
I never understand these guys who lay horses in running at odds of 1000/1. The image of Richard Johnson departing from his horse ten yards from the winning line is one that will live with me forever.
23 Matthew
I don’t know what that means but I am sure the answer is no!
…as the Bishop said to the actress.
Marcus at 30- you just made me laugh- I remember with fondness the cones helpline. I had to get across the Thelwell viaduct twice a day in those days- cones all the way!!
A very sensible post nevertheless- gosh if I am feeling this frustrated mid way through a Labour third term, god knows what it would be like having to endure a fourth, and more importantly what damage could it do to the party to ultimately end in ignominous failure (and an electoral wipe out, rather than on a reasonable record)
6. The more I hear of Cruddas the more I like the guy. Why doesn’t he run for leader rather than deputy?
27 - Aaron, quite right, “caveat emptor”, isn’t it? I’d like to think none of us would blindly follow Mike S and co, but in the jungle of Betfair it’s good to have some reliable advice.
33 - PtP, there was a happyish ending, in that BF has very generously agreed not to pursue debts beyond those recoverable from their balances at the time of betting (the guy who was theoretically £11,800 down won’t lose his house or anything), but it must have been brown trousers time for a while!
Re: 36 - Tyson, politics is all about victory, defeat and renewal. No one party has a divine right to Government and the checks and balances of democracy dictate that power will pass from one side to another.
The question really is the extent to which a Government is able to permanently change the economic, social, political and moral landscape of the country such that the effects of its policies can’t be quickly undone.
There are those who assert that the Thatcher Government transformed Britain. There are those who will assert that the Blair Government has changed Britain. I don’t feel qualified to comment in detail though I am as certain now that we can’t turn the clock back to 1997 as, back then, I believed it would be impossible to turn the clock back to 1979.
David Cameron, the first post-Cold War Conservative, has grasped this. My views on him are well known but that he has recognised that the Conservative worldview that prevailed from 1975 to 1997 is no longer sustainable - well, that can’t be denied.
36. Majors Government were doubly frustrating, having wrestled the steering wheel away from Maggie they then discovered that they couldn’t drive; it was pitiful to watch and awful to have to apologise for.
Reading J Majors biography on holiday made me squirm with embarrassment.
He thought he did quite well.
38. That’s good to hear Andy D. I felt quite sick reading those threads! Poor buggers won’t do that again. One guy said he stood to lose over 10k, but his wife was understanding. Lucky fellow.
38 Glad to hear of it, Andy, but they were lucky. I guess that as Betfair is fairly new and a radical departure from the traditional bookies (who are hostile to it), it was probably in their interests to bail the poor sods out. The cost would have been small to Betfair; the bad publicity would have cost a lot more.
You are absolutely right about caveat emptor - let the punter beware! Nevertheless, like responsible tipsters everywhere we do put a bit of work into our efforts and try not to lead anybody astray.
On this last point, you give me the opportunity to mention the occasional horseracing tips I put up on here. Nobody can guarantee results but I do promise they are well researched and are normally backed up with confirmation from the yard that the animal is fit and ready to run a big race. These conditions apply to very few races, which is why I don’t put up tips here very often. So far, I’ve been lucky and I have a high strike rate with tips on PB. Whether or not I can keep it up, you’ll have to judge for yourself!
Right O/T but this should get the Lib Dems going. The Tories are to unveil a manifesto commitment to PR…………….. in Wales. Apparently they are going to put it in their manifesto for the May elections to use PR for Local Government in Wales. To be fair it still may not happen as it is causing one almighty row in the Tory party, but interesting move. I mean they would have run this idea past Dave first wouldn’t they.
30 - So presumably you didn’t vote Conservative in 1992
(Ain’t hindsight a wonderful thing)
Ptp. Your strike rate for your big race tips here has been exceptional. However not so good on your occasional day to day tips. Does this reflect your overall horseracing betting successes? If so the obvious lesson would be to just stick to the big races. This is what I do but then I don’t spend enough time studying the horses to get involved day to day. Nor am I privy to “information”.
Would welcome your thoughts.
36 etc - at least the cones helpline was harmless!
I think Gordo needs to watch his step; too many more of these ill thought out ‘initiatives’ and we’ll be into ‘Bonkers Brown’ territory where he randomly pops up spouting rubbish that even his supporters find embarrassing.
46 Kingbongo “I think Gordo needs to watch his step; too many more of these ill thought out ‘initiatives’ and we’ll be into ‘Bonkers Brown’ territory where he randomly pops up spouting rubbish that even his supporters find embarrassing.”
I thought we were there, what with the ‘best goal’ against Scotland, the World Cup for England, Credit cards for tearaways, and smirking leaving Downing Street, chaotic mergers of tax and customs, tax credits and VAT fraud, solving world poverty single handed and wiping out debts for African despots.
What more does he have to do to prove that his Cabinet colleagues got it right and he would be a ‘f*cking disaster as Prime Minister” and that he really is, as Charles Clarke suggested, a ‘deluded control freak’ with ‘psychological’ problems and his party leader’s eminence grise described as ‘psychologically flawed’.
Ten years of disloyalty and plotting to get the boss’s job. Ten years of nail biting frustration and failure to act. Ten years of mental stress and psychological pressure.
A perfect CV for a short lived Prime Minister who will self-destruct within weeks not months.
45 StJohn
It’s certainly true that in the last 12 months I’ve found a lot of big race winners at big prices. It’s also true that it’s easier to cut down the number of losers you back than it is to increase the number of winners. My hero, Alan Potts, recommends a highly selective approach and that chimes with what you are saying.
How do you know where the next big winner is coming from though? I had a desperate run through December and January which came to an abrupt end when, on February 15th, I backed the wonderfully named Lyrical Lily at 11/1 in a Class 5 Handicap Hurdle at Folkestone. If I’d put that up here, you’d have all laughed at me - until it won. And of course an 11/1 winner at F’stone pays exactly the same as an 11/1 winner at Cheltenham.
So who knows? Yes, I would probably win more if I bet less. I would probably get more bored too.
Well Done Peter for staying ahead of the game, and thanks for the article.
re 30. 1992 was one of the few elections when I did vote Tory and solely because of JM’s campaiging on the union and the damage that Labour’s tinkering with the constitution would cause to the cohesion of the country. He didn’t get much right but he sure was right on this issue.
Sadly I’ve to announce that I won’t be able to attend next pb.com’s party for fear to be blocked at Hetrow airport (in the hearth of John McDonnell’s constituency) for having failed to do enough Gordon’s community work and having failed the Britishness test…an hard test that tested all main proud aspects of British culture and included tasks as getting drunk all night, wearing Ginger Spice’s Union Jack outfit as a symbol of classy fashion and singing God Save the Queen whilst looking at a picture of Camilla’s hunting dog.
Following on from Tyson’s broadside on Brown-and well deserved-I heard that the UK currently has five million ex pats of which a million are living in Spain. The thought of those rosy cheeked alcoholics doing community service on the Costa Brava would be very funny indeed……
Nonetheless not one of the Chancellors greatest innovations.
40. In many ways, Major’s government did do quite well on the ground but that success was clouded by the big stories - the ERM, Maastrict, arms to Iraq, the sleaze agenda etc. But how many of these had lasting consequences (other than 3 Labour terms)?
In terms of solid achievements, the crime rate started to fall at last in the mid-90s, the economy was growing well by 1997 without sparking inflation, the Northern Ireland peace process had made solid progress before being stifled by Major’s lack of a parliamentary majority, and perhaps most significantly, his stated aim of a country at ease with itself was closer in 1997 than for many decades. Far from a great prime minister, but not a bad one.
42 - unfortunately I don’t get time at work to lurk on PB like I used to, so I’ve probably missed out on all of the horse racing tips, which is a pity. A friend of mine makes a very healthy living on the nags, but no matter how hard I try I just can’t wrap my head around the whole thing, so you have my utmost respect for managing it.
For those who followed my tip on Saturday concerning Ireland and the Rugby World Cup, the price to back them has shortened from 24 to 14 on Betfair. With the next match against Scotland still over 10 days away, there still seems to be some gain in backing them further, as their price should shorten a little more down to at least 12s where South Africa is currently priced and a nice tidy profit could be made before the Scotland match, which could be a trickier encounter for Ireland than many may suspect. I still think England is a good bet to back. They are currently way underpriced at 23s. However I would advise waiting until after the France game, if as I think will happen England lose.
54. I entirely agree.
37. Trafalgar earlier asked the question ‘why doesn’t Cruddas go for the leadership?’ I think the answer’s twofold. Firstly, and most obviously, he’d lose. No matter how bad a stage Brown might be going through, he’s not going to lose to an inexperienced left-wing backbencher - or put another way: in the unlikely event that Brown does lose, it wouldn’t be to Cruddas. Remember that the MPs have a third of the vote for a start. For him to stand for the leadership would be an empty gesture and one that others are more than happy to make. Neither he nor Labour would gain anything from it.
The other point is that I think he genuinely wants the deputy’s job. That’s good news for Brown in a way. While a deputy who’s not in his circle wouldn’t be his choice, it’s better than a deputy who’s constantly angling for the main job and dissatisfied with the one he/she’s in. (Ironic laughter). And Brown may be doing Cruddas an inadvertent favour by his current campaigning. While I still believe that most Labour members and MPs want and expect Brown to get the leadership, I wouldn’t be at all surprised if there’s not a little concern at some of the initiatives coming out of No11 at the moment. In those circumstances, the chances of a political outsider (ie from outside the cabinet and especially Brown’s camp) with closer links to the grass roots gaining the deputyship must be enhanced.
I’ve just heard the first significant policy commitment so far from David Cameron and one which will come back to bite him. Tax breaks for married couples as opposed to co habiting ones or any other sort for that matter. Back to John Major and back to basics. And Harriet Harman is outpointing the usually admirable David Willets by some margin. Obviously he has the harder brief but Harriet is surprisingly good. Of course this is her subject and Willets seems embarrassed to be arguing such a reactionary case.
This is quite significant. When you scratch the surface of a Tory however young these kinds of reactionary policies are never far from the surface. It is also significant that if this runs and Harriet takes the lead it will do her deputy leadership ambitions no harm at all.
57: Come off it Roger, Harman was almost as hopeless as Sion Simon last night. She kept wittering on about ‘back to basic’, things being ‘bonkers’ and not being about to get her ‘head around it’. She also ended with a nasty cheap shot about the private lives of Tory MPs.
47 - Witan, when you put it like that you’re right, we are already in Bonkers Brown territory - so which of the spineless nonentities who might stand up to him will do so? none of them. Step forward Mr Tony, your party needs you. He might by a lying murdering fantasist with a Messiah complex but he’s STILL the best leader the Labour Party can hope for. Woger can bleat all he likes but Brown is not coming over as a leader who has any idea how to lead a renewal of a tired government.
re 57. Roger - forget the policies and your allegiances and sit back and work out who came out best. Willetts absolutely floored Harman and showed how shallow and inadequate she is. We must have been watching different interviews.
Harman looked third rate without a single idea and no understanding of how to formulate an argument in such a context. That she had to end up name calling the Tories over philandering MPs showed how pathetic she is.
60. I’m surprised this Conservatives and PR story hasn’t stirred the Lib Dem pot. Has potentially big implications doesn’t it.
Off topic… but am I right in saying that Brown is a cheap Blunkettlike populist
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/6399457.stm
All this talk of foreigners having to do voluntary work before becoming British citizens. My wife has lived here for 8 years, and has an EU passport. She works full time, and we bring up two children. Would she have to do voluntary work in order to be able to vote in a General Election? After 8 years, would the voluntary work necessarily “help her immigrate” - or is this voluntary stuff just aimed at certain nationalities?
Meanwhile all those gin-swilling, golf and bridge mad ex-pat Brits on the Costa del Slob, who rarely come near Britain, can still vote.
62 - actually, would helping me deliver a few Focus leaflets count as voluntary work?
Compassionate. Caring. Sensitive. Inclusive. The new UKIP.
http://www.dorsetecho.co.uk/misc/print.php?artid=1218404
62 - “immigrate” should of course read “integrate”
Re: 60 - sorry to disappoint you, Punter, but it’s going to take a lot more than a vague throwaway comment to stir my pot ! :). Now, an unequivocal commitment by David Cameron to the introduction of the Single Transferrable Vote for all elections followed by him asking to defect and join the Liberal Democrats….that would probably do it
60,57 - was that on C4 news ?
O/T but Iain Dale is reporting a very bad poll for Labour/good one for SNP coming out tomorrow. Maybe not that O/T as Gordon seems to be the one the Scots Lab Party are blaming.
Go on Reading! 3-0 down after 6 minutes. It’s a bit like Scotland -Italy at the weekend.
55
Enngland are on Betfair at only 2-1 ish for the France match, but at 31-1 to win the tournament. If England do beat France, that 31-1 will look good.
69 - The BBC currently gnashing their teeth as people switch over from another one sided match….
Still, Man City are still in there
.
68. Ted, I think Scottish Labour can’t just blame others this time. The Scottish Sundays had various pieces about McConnell seeming to run away from debates (and Salmond). And there’re also figures from Downing Street involved in the campaign this time (mot just Brownites)
66. It is not vague. Apparently they’re really thinking of putting it in their manifesto. Given the total anathema of the Tories to PR anywhere in the space time continuum, they must surely have have had to get approval from London.
66 see 43.
68 I expect that is the monthly ICM poll for the Scotsman.
75. Apparently it’s SNP 5% ahead in constituency vote and 4% in the list vote
3-1 to Reading,courtsey of Paul Kitson-phew!
72 - Andrea if they can find someone to blame other than themselves then they will (I agree its mostly Scots Labour at fault) but I do not believe anyone from Downing St would be going to Scotland with Gordon’s approval - unless they have a complete death wish
75. Marcia, if it’s ICM, SNP lead increased in the constituency vote, but reduced in the list vote
78. Ted, I think everyone has something they can be blamed for.
79 - in the 33 years campaigning for the SNP I have never known such anti-Labour feeling on the doorsteps. Still 2 months to go though. This time the party will have more money to spend on the campaign in the final month.
Are there figures for others 81. The Lib Dems are down but how are the Tories etc faring.
Re: Tories and PR for local elections in Wales… I wrote to my MP a few months ago complaining that FPTP had landed us with such a huge Labour majority on Reading Council. My MP, in a response probably drafted by Rik W, thought PR for local government was the bee’s knees.
Re: Scotland - could it end up a stalemate like the Czech attempts to form a government? What is the most likely coalition? SNP / LD / Green?
83 - sorry, I meant my MP thought FPTP for local elections was the bee’s knees. Not on the ball today.
80 I meant “without Gordon’s approval” in my 78 post. Politics isn’t fair and if Labour do badly the Scots Party will seek to blame Gordon (interfering. Britishness etc), if they do better than expected then it’ll be despite the Westminster Party.
85.”Politics isn’t fair and if Labour do badly the Scots Party will seek to blame Gordon (interfering. Britishness etc), ”
if the election outcome will lead to the post-McConnell period in Scottish Labour, I can see them blaming each other inside Scottish Labour too (various factions placing themself for an eventual Scot leadership race)
83. Was your MP Martin Salter.
87. No, Rob Wilson
88 - yes, agreeing on FPTP for local elections in Reading is a rare point of agreement for Messrs Salter and Wilson.
Salter’s always a good laugh at the Reading count. I’ve seen him cheer a Tory winner saying “We like X; X is not really a Tory”.
89 - SBS - I look forward to seeing you at this year’s Reading count!
89. Don’t get too excited whatever the WA Tory manifesto says. Even if a majority of AMs vote for it, Westminster still has the final say and Labour have pledged to block it there if necessary.
64 - serves this bloke right for believing UKIP was a proper political party. He should of course sue them under the provisions of the Disability Discrimination Act - not that they have any money to pay damages.
O/T again but saw a report on BBCi that Al Gore’s electicity bills show he uses 20 times the US average (22,000 kwh) - an inconvenient truth? Give that Oscar back now - you were acting, it wasn’t a documentary!
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/6401489.stm
And before Roger responds - Cameron hasn’t had his car following for quite some time now
90 - will you be there?
I don’t always go. I usually do a graveyard shift telling and prefer to decamp home with a take-away and couple of beers. May go; if I do, will see you there!
94.”will you be there? ”
Isn’t he standing in a Con target ward? I suppose he should be there for his winning speech!
95 - No, Rik is involved in Sutton politics these days. He stood down as a councillor in Reading. Stood in Sutton in GE and locals last year.
Can anyone go to election night counts or do you need to be connected to a candidate in some way? Depending where I am it could be an interesting possibility..
96. well, I know that he stood in Sutton in 2005!
However on Vote2007, it was reported that the former Sutton PPC has been selected to fight Peppard.
56. David, I doubt Cruddas will ever go for the leadership - he wants a party chair type role as deputy leader and doesn’t even want to be a minister from what I understand.
On your second point I think a number Brown’s camp are quite relaxed, if not supportive of Cruddas’ bid for Deputy Leader. There’s this page on Jon Cruddas’ website with shots from his campaigning featuring a series of Brownites - Nick Brown speaking at one of his campaign meetings, Tom Watson having a curry with him and local councillors, Ed Balls and Yvette Cooper at some event too. As Mike Smithson’s recent posts which include stills from TV footage show, a picture can paint a thousand words. These images give a big signal to me that those close to Brown are welcoming Cruddas’ campaign and maybe even tacitly supporting it.
Have a look - it takes 30 seconds or so to scroll through, but makes interesting viewing.
http://www.joncruddas.org.uk/index.php?getPage=gallery
98 - really! Well go on Rik, either deny it or trigger the start of your election expenses!
99 - Cruddas has the right idea about what a deputy leader should be and do. The whole idea that they need a “Department of Self-Importance” or whatever Prescott had is ridiculous.
Besides. Cruddas thinks “Curb Your Enthusiasm” is the finest thing on TV. Were I in a union, he’d get my vote!
100. It was mentioned here http://www.vote-2007.co.uk/index.php?topic=516.0
(and I’m sure I’ve already mentioned it replying to one of your posts here! I’m sure as I recall Commentator asking what the hell Peppard was)
97 - as far as I know you would need to be an agent for a particular candidate. There is no general access to the actual vote count.
94 - I will be there!!
97, 103, In my patch the candidates are all allocated a number of tickets (5 or so IIRC) for the count that of course includes polling agents etc. There is no admission for the general public, though the press are certainly there in force.
97, 103, In my patch the candidates are all allocated a number of tickets (5 or so IIRC) for the count that of course includes polling agents etc. There is no admission for the general public, though the press are certainly there in force.
60. Of course I’m prejudiced! Tax breaks for married couples….. and we worry about Labour’s social engineering? I find these kinds of policy so dispiriting in 2007 that whatever Willets would have said would have failed.
As it happens I’m quite a fan of his but he was asked repeatedly by the always charming Jon Snow whether the Tories were comitted to introducing tax breaks for married couples-as opposed to co habitees-and he waffled.
When he finally said ‘Yes’ it looked like he had swallowed a lemon. Harmon is never very good but at least she was direct and her argument was unanswerable.
Brownites are like magpies. They see something new and shiny thats getting interest and want to know how their man can benefit from Jonny Cruddas. They don’t get it. They just don’t get it.
107. I bet you thought Foot would win in 1983 as well Roger.
107. ‘Harmon is never very good’. I agree. Paul Linford had outlined his thoughts on the contenders here:
http://paullinford.blogspot.com/2007/02/and-here-are-ones-who-will-get-my.html
He gives his verdict on Harriet’s bid:
‘What turns me against her though is her very mediocre record as a minister, and the fact that she has nothing very new to say about the role of the deputy leader beyond the fact that it shouldn’t have a penis.’
Brilliant.
OT. Meandering through the end of BBC 10 o’clock news I wander to the kitchen for a small libation …. non alcholic I assure you !!! and then return to the utter shock of OAP bodybuilders
Alastair Matlock lookalikes in lycra thongs pumping iron really is too much !!!!
Jack W is a resplendent 104
110.
“she has nothing very new to say about the role of the deputy leader beyond the fact that it shouldn’t have a penis.”
or at least admit to said ownership!
112. Will all candidates be checked at the hustings?
113. Are you volunteering Andrea?
114 HenryG. Andrea’s left for Milano airport already !! …. with tape measure.
53 - Absolutely agree with you. I have enormous regard for what JM did for this country. I get so pissed off with Labour claiming the credit for, amongst other things, the rejuvination of Manchester city centre by comparing it with 1996 after the IRA bomb. It was Major who ensured there were no bombs devastating city centres like Manchester with his excellent perserverence in Northern Ireland!
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/shropshire/6400169.stm
Trouble at the post office - could get nasty..
114/15 Henry/Jack
I’m too innocent for those things
117. Jamie. After reading the BBC pieced, I wondered what the allegation was based on? Just on the fact they work at the post office?
According to Newsnight the front page of the Guardian has a big piece about the Brown camp fearing a David Miliband challenge. Brown’s price is still drifting (1.28) whereas Miliband is in to 11.5. Charles Clarke 28. Could be a good buy then lay opportunity if today’s excitement/herd mentality was anything to go by.
118. Nevermind that - “Brown camp fears Miliband” screams the newspaper headlines - DM now 11s on betfair !
119. I sometimes wonder if Brown has done something to the Guardian
121. People used to say the Guardian was ‘written by Trots and read by Liberals’. Maybe that explains it.
122.
Always regarding the Guardian, I noticed that they didn’t publish all signatures to the pro McDonnell letter during the weekend…just “Tony Benn, Christine Shawcroft, Elaine Smith MSP and 9 others”.
The “9 others” part made me laugh..what’s the point of it? Publish their names or it’s pointless
Mr AJ tonight is only the last in a line of ministers who have felt it necessary in the last week to say that two parent families are better for kids. There is also a trend to supporting more local and less central management in the NHS. It is following the ‘green’ issues last year.
This, following the ‘green’ issues last year, is the first time in many years where the Tories, and their leader in particular, have set the political agenda in this way so often and for so long, and where government responses in the usual ‘trash the man line’ have had to be abandoned as the first line of defense ( although still there in the sidebar).
If labour are trounced in Scotland and the polls still show a national trend towards the Tories, how can GB not be blamed?
He has taken to touring like the PM in waiting, his sidekick is ‘in charge’ of Labour’s election campaign in Scotland, he is an MP from Scotland that had a large part in setting the constitutional changes in motion which the SNP seem well placed to exploit, whose brilliant positioning seems to have left him looking unpatriotic in Scotland and a wolf in sheep’s clothing in England.
This from the man touted as the political genius in New Labour and its campaigning triumphs.
125.”sidekick is ‘in charge’ of Labour’s election campaign in Scotland”
There’re elements of various camps (McConnell, Blair and Brown) involved in the Scottish campaign team, it’s not just Brownites.
Interesting piece in tomorrow’s Times on the Republican race for nomination.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article1449743.ece
‘A slew of polls show the former Mayor of New York opening a lead of up to 20 per cent over his declared rivals among likely Republican primary voters…no Republican candidate in modern history has been so far ahead at this stage in the contest and then failed to win the nomination.’
Best office price on him to win the nomination is 9/4 with http://www.stanjames.com
100. You need an update on your electoral law SBS. Rik doesn’t trigger his election expenses by announcing his candidacy. Under the PPERA 2001 the election period doesn’t begin until a set date - this year I believe it’s March 23rd - and so his announcing now would merely trigger his election expenses from March 23rd.
Interestingly though the government have never repealled the Representation of the People Act that the PPERA was supposed to replace, because of the problems surrounding the 2001 General Election and the postponement etc. Therefore technically both acts are in force, and until a court decides which has precedence no one really knows the law.
But in reality you are much safer sticking with the 2001 PPERA as I think it fairly clearly Parliaments wishes…
127 It looks like it’s Guiliani’s to lose now, Henry.
I was fortunate to get on at 4/1. I wouldn’t take 9/4 though. Too short. Won’t be laying off though. This is one to sit on, even if it does take a while to collect.
129. When’s the result due - do you know Peter? End of this year? I’m shamefully ignorant of US politics.
Not offhand…and Andrea’s gone to bed, so gonna have to look it up myself. Damn.
Andrea Technically Jack the Lad is in charge of the campaign in Scotland but the Broonian Legate is one D Alexander. And guess who is controlling the money and wider party.
Alexander is, of course the Secretary of State for Scotland, who, in his tea breaks, moonlights as the minister for English Transport (although he leaves the English bit out so we don’t notice he is from a Scottish constituency and has no role in Scottish Transport as it is a devolved matter).
New poll in The Scotsman show the SNP retaining their lead of 5 points on the FPTP poll and 4 on the list.
http://news.scotsman.com/index.cfm?id=311452007
The date of the Primaries hasn’t been set yet, although February 5th 2008 looks likely to be Super Tuesday.
http://www.gwu.edu/~action/2008/chrnothp08.html
Henry…It’s not entirely clear but I think feb 2008, although the winner may become obvious a few months before (at the Iowa Caucuses?)
Cheers Ben. february 08 then.
Thanks Ben and Peter.
I see the Hefferlum is backin Reid in the Torygraph
HenreyG If you mean the presidential election , they are not until November 2008 and usually the candidates are nominated in the summer party conventions, expected in July or August or September.
The forthcoming campaign has started very early and there will be lots of opportunities to trip up in the meantime. Being in front at this stage is probably a curse, except for the money it can help generate.
Data is here:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_2008
139 It includes preliminary primary and convention dates.
139. Yes it’s the nomination date I’m after - trying to work out how long a window there is to trip up (as you say) and how long to tie cash up for from my betting bank!
Constituency vote
SNP 34
Lab 29
LD 16
Con 16
List vote
SNP 32
Lab 28
Con 15
Greens under 6% risking to remain with just 1 MSP and Solidarity failing to get 1%
LD 17
For Independence 46%, against 44%
(a 10% swing against independence compared to October poll)
HenryG Then you have to wait until the summer of 2008 if it is close. The candidate always used to be chosen at the convention but now as delegates are ‘locked in’ to a candidate in most states the tally can be made as the primaries progress. The key ones may be all over by April or May from what I have understood as several states are considering moving primaries to earlier dates, including the mega delegate rich California.
But best go with the worst case of August 2008 as I suspect this will be a close fought race on both sides of the aisle.
change compared to January ICM poll
Constituency vote
SNP +1
Lab -2
LD +1
Con +3
List vote
SNP -1
Lab +1
LD unchanged
Con +1
144. Ok Witan. Thank you.
re 142. My predictor gives - with the Greens at 6%
SNP 44
Lab 40
LD 23
C 16
Green 5
Other 1
but reducing the Greens to 5.9% reduces them to 4 seats and at 5.6% they’re down to 2. On these figures it’s perfectly possible that the Lab/LD coalition could remain in power unless the SNP improve their percentages markedly.
147 - Cue tactical voting from SNP to Green in the list vote?
Iain Dale thinks this a ‘very bad’ poll for Labour, -2 in one category, +1 in the other? Shrug.
Have commented on the Clarke/Milburn thing and the Guardian story on the new party thread.
147. The Greens have 1 sure seat (Lothians). All their other seats will probably be just above the last seat or just after it.
Not sure what SSP will poll according to ICM
149. Nick, -2 and +1 is compared to January’s ICM poll.
Compared to 2003 elections it’s -5/6% in the constituency vote and -1 in the list vote
David M now in to 8/1 on Betfair helping me to get an all green book in the process
119, 120. Henry G and Jamie.
Very significant market movements in the Labour leadership today.
The only thing “defying political gravity” at the moment is Gordon Brown’s price to be the next Labour leader. He’s lighter than Nimble!
Miliband now uder 15/2
70. No - it’s almost impossible for England to win the 6 Nations.
Assume England beat France by 10 points. Then, the points difference would be:
France +40
England +15
So in the last round of matches England would have to improve their points difference by 25 more than France. Final round of matches is:
France v Scotland
Wales v England
So it is very, very unlikely.