politicalbetting.com

What about the minister who had the guts to resign over Iraq?

After a weekend which has seen repeated media calls for Brown to face a proper challenge for the leadership his price has eased further on the betting markets. Just a week ago a £100 winning Brown bet would have produced a profit of £19 - today such a wager offers £27.

But the big question that those betting against the Chancellor have to ask is - if not Gordon then who? We have seen one potential challenger after another fall by the wayside and it is hard to make a case for anybody within the cabinet. What about looking wider afield?

Four years ago three senior ministers resigned over Iraq: one, Robin Cook is sadly no longer with us; the second Claire Short is no longer with the Labour party; while the third, John Denham, remains as a Labour MP and has been a regular critic of the Blair administration as chair of the Home Affairs committee.

For as well as his stand on Iraq Denham is one of the dwindling band of Labour MPs to represent a seat in southern England - Southampton Itchen which he took off the Tories at the 1992 general election.

One person who has been talking up Denham’s strengths is the influential Labour blogger, Paul Linford. Last week he noted “Denham is a sensible leftie who in most respects holds perfectly mainstream Labour Party views, notably on the importance of tackling inequality. He also, of course, has relevant recent high-level ministerial experience as a minister in the Home Office. John Denham is a man of high principle who in my opinion would make an admirable Prime Minister.”

This BBC interview from last September shows what an effective communicator he is. I think he is quite impressive with an approach that is very much in tune with the moment.

What strikes me is that a contender who had resigned his post over Iraq is in a completely different category from almost anybody else. If the party wants to draw a line under that unhappy episode then choosing someone who took such a stand is the way to do it.

A Denham victory would leave David Cameron as the only one of the three main party leaders to have voted for the war and help Labour counter the Lib Dem’s USP on the issue.

The more I have thought about it the more logical a Denham bid appears and over the weekend I did put £6 on Denham at average odds of more than 320/1.There’s been no hint from Denham that he is even interested and I am still maintaining my betting position on Gordon. But things can happen.

Mike Smithson

In partnership with Politico’s Book Shop, Politicalbetting.com is happy to announce the date and venue, as above, of its annual party which this year will be combined with the launch of Mike’s book, The Political Punter, which is being published by Harriman House.

The venue is made possible by the sponsorship of our MP contributors, John Hemming (LD), Stewart Jackson (CON) and Nick Palmer (LAB). Our thanks to them.

Politicos will, at its own cost, be inviting along a number of journalists for the launch, so if you attend you not only get the chance to insult personally many of those you have been insulting all year on the site, but you will also be able to air your views to the denizens of the press. How can you miss this opportunity?

No formal arrangements have been made for drinks afterwards but we expect a fair few of us will shuffle across to St Stephens Tavern for the evening. Naturally anybody who cannot make the launch itself will be very welcome to catch up with us there.

Afternoon refreshments will be served at the launch and to cover the cost of this we are charging £13.50 per head. There will be no other charge. I need to firm up on numbers as soon as possible and provide names to The House, so I must ask all those who intend to come for a definite commitment by Friday 6th April at the latest – if you can do so sooner, it will be a big help to me. Please email your confirmations to me at arklebar@talktalk.net

PB has a small budget to contribute towards wine at the launch and if there is any left over, we’ll stick it behind the bar at the pub. Naturally if anybody feels moved to contribute personally to the alcoholic side of things, we will be very grateful for any offerings.

I look forward to hearing from as many of you as possible. Politico’s reckon they will bring along at least 25. I’d like to think PB can top that. Bust a gut to get there; it should be worth it.

Peter Smith (aka Peter the Punter)

Blair planning to quit as an MP as soon as he steps down - report

According to what is billed as an “exclusive” by the News of the World this morning Tony Blair is planning to step down as MP immediately after leaving Downing Street this summer.

The paper says “He has told members of his local Labour Party in the north-east he does not want to “get in the way on the back benches..He had privately agreed to stay out of domestic politics for five years to give Gordon Brown a clear run as Prime Minister.”

So within only a month or so of taking over at Number 10 Gordon would face a by election in what was a predominantly mining seat with a long Labour history. In May 2005 Blair held Sedgefield with 58.9% of the vote with the Tories on 14.4% and the Lib Dems on 11.9%. That campaign was dominated by the campaign of Reg Keys - the father of a British serviceman killed in the Iraq War who got more than 10% of the vote.

On the face of it this should be an easy Labour hold but then by elections can always be tricky for governing parties. Although the Tories were in second place last time it is the Lib Dem party which has strength locally. Sedgefield Council has 7 Lib Dem councillors, one Tory, eight others, and 32 Labour.

There are council elections there in May and this might give a further indication of Labour strengths and weaknesses.

So the Sedgefield by election looks set to be the first public test of the Brown government. Could this be an opportunity for the Lib Dems?

In Westminster by elections you should never underestimate Ming’s party however unfavourable the general election shares might seem - just look at Dunfermline and Bromley in 2006. A complicating factor could be Reg Keys. Might he stand again where he did so well last time to make further points about Iraq?

Whatever this has the potential to cause problems for Labour’s new leader.

Mike Smithson

Will the climate change sceptic win the Peers’ Tory by election?

There’s a by election going on at the moment for a place in parliament which has hardly been covered in the media but which, potentially, could cause a problem for David Cameron.

There are 43 candidates fighting it out to win the support from an electorate of just 47 different people and the result is due the week after next. At stake is one of the hereditary Tory places in the House of Lords which was made vacant by the death in December of the Tory peer Lord Mowbray.

And for David Cameron there could be a problem - for one of the leading candidates is Viscount (Christopher) Monckton - the former aide to Margaret Thatcher who has become the leading world voice against climate change.

Monckton’s features in the Sunday Telegraph last November in which he “disputes the ‘facts’ of this impending apocalypse” and accuses the UN and its scientists of distorting the truth have become the main tracts for those who doubt whether global warming is in fact taking place.

And what could be more embarrassing for the young Tory leader if the next party member to be elected to parliament is playing such a role and has such views? For Cameron has sought to make so much of the green agenda to differentiate his Tory party from how they used to be perceived.

Although he is up against a huge number of opponents it is Monckton who has been making the running in what limited coverage there has been in the media. There’s a big piece about him today in the Guardian which notes that he worked for Margaret Thatcher “during her most abrasive ruling period” and describes the Blair government as “dictatorship … inflicted on us by stealth“.

The “electorate” are existing Tory peers in the Lords and not all of them, one would guess, are completely comfortable with Cameron. What better way for them to express their discontent than by supporting the Monckton bid?

The 55 year old peer has also been in the news over a game he invented. In 1999, he created the eternity puzzle (bottom picture) which offered a £1m prize to the first to crack it. It was won after 18 months. A second puzzle, Eternity II, is to be launched in July 2007, with a prize of $2 million.

Alas - there is not a betting market yet on the election. If there was then Monckton might be worth a punt.

Mike Smithson

Can Labour Retain the North Kent Marginals?

One of the funniest sights at the last election was watching Bob Marshall-Andrews conceding defeat in Medway, only to find out later that he’d retained the seat by 223 votes. This set the pattern in North Kent, as Labour managed to cling on to the marginal seats of Chatham & Aylesford, Sittingbourne & Sheppey, Gillingham, Dartford, and, of course, Medway.

In four of these seats, the Labour majority was less than a thousand. Paradoxically, their safest seat in the area, Gravesham, was lost. Up till then, Gravesham had voted for the winner in every general election since 1951. Although the average rise in the Conservative share in these six seat, 2.3%, compared favourably with the national average, 0.5%, it wasn’t quite enough to win them.

Historically, the Thames Estuary has always been hotly contested by Labour and the Conservatives, save for Gillingham, which was thought to be safely Conservative up until the earthquake of 1997.

While all these seats have prosperous, and rural, areas that provide a reliable Conservative vote, they also much more working class and industrial than the typical Home Counties constituency, which generates a solid Labour vote.

It is no surprise that these seats are so fiercely disputed by the big two parties, or that the Liberal Democrats perform very poorly in this area.

My guess is that David Cameron’s brand of liberal Conservatism will prove less popular here than in, say, Central London. As against that, it would take only a very slight swing to deprive Labour of all but one of the seats it is defending here.

Boundary changes marginally favour the Conservatives here. Anthony Wells projects that both Sittingbourne & Sheppey, and Gillingham, would both move into the Conservative column by tiny margins (although Rallings & Thrasher believe Gillingham remains Labour). In Dartford, the Labour majority is reduced by a fraction, to 583. Rochester & Strood (as Medway is renamed) moves quite strongly to the Conservatives, who are projected to have a 1,500 majority, while Chatham & Aylesford moves decisively to Labour, whose majority rises to 4,800. Gravesham sees its small Conservative majority unchanged.

In general, these seats tend to vote for the winning party in the general election. However, the Conservatives could now win all the seats apart from Chatham & Aylesford, and not come close to winning the election. If however, they do take that seat in addition, which has a percentage Labour majority of 12% now, then they will, in all likelihood, have won an overall majority.

There were two by-elections last night:-

Cumbria CC – Castle: Lib Dem 653, Labour 222, Conservative 117, Green 29. Lib Dem hold. This was a strong performance for the Lib Dems, and a very poor one for Labour, who ran them close in 2005.
Calderdale MBC: Illingworth & Mixenden. Labour 1,104, BNP 1,034, Conservative 525, Lib Dem. 150, Independent: 68. Labour hold. As expected, this provided the night’s excitement. Labour pulled out all the stops to hold this seat, and had great success in persuading enough voters to back them to stop the BNP from winning. This was similar to the outcomes in the Keighley West by-election, last year, and Barking & Dagenham, Village, in 2004, where very strong BNP challenges were kept at bay by tactical voting for the Labour candidate. It is, however, debateable whether the same tactic will work in all out council elections, particularly as Labour will be seeking to defend 3,000 seats in May, compared to a handful being defended by the BNP. Also notable is the fact that after one of their councillors was found guilty of housing benefit fraud, and one of their local activists was found guilty of sending hate mail to Muslims, the BNP should still have increased their vote share, marginally, to 36%.

Sean Fear is a London Tory activist

The internet pollster reinforces the trend picked up by ICM

Today’s YouGov poll in the Daily Telegraph shows almost no change in the overall voting intentions on the last survey by the internet pollster - but provides more evidence following this week’s ICM poll of growing doubts on the electoral appeal of the Chancellor, Gordon Brown.

The headline figures are with changes on the last YouGov survey two and a half weeks ago are:- CON 37% (nc): LAB 32% (nc): LD 17% (-1)

There’s been a big change, however, in responses to YouGov’s forced choice question - “If you had to choose, which would you prefer to see after the next election, a Conservative Government led by David Cameron or a Labour Government led by Gordon Brown?” This was the split with comparisons on last month CON 43% (-1): LAB 34% (-4)

To put the Brown-Cameron question in context - exactly one year ago when the Tory leader was enjoying his media honeymoon the split was CON 37% - LAB 43%.

This change on the month is very similar to that recorded in ICM’s voting intention question published on Tuesday when a big swing to the Tories on the month was recorded when respondents were asked how they would vote if it was Brown’s Labour against Cameron’s Tories and Ming’s Lib Dems.

There’s also been a decline in Brown’s position people were asked “who would make the best Prime Minister?” Last month Cameron had a 2% margin over Brown - this is now 4%.

My reading is that confidence in Gordon appears to erode when he does things like last week’s English World Cup bid announcement. He appears to want the top job too much and this is not something that voters warm to. If he could do “humble” his succession would be 100% assured.

All this is reinforcing doubts about the Chancellor in the Labour leadership betting where the Brown price has eased to 0.25/1. Me? I’m keeping my money on Gordon and will be putting more on if the price moves much further.

Mike Smithson