YouGov: 73% of Labour members want a contest
March 5th, 2007
Brown would beat Miliband by 52% - 25%
A YouGov poll of 1,115 Labour members for the Daily Telegraph this morning has found overwhelming support for a leadership contest when Tony decides to call it a day.
A total of 73% said they thought a contest was better against just 11% who thought the Chancellor should get the job unopposed. In such a vote Brown would command 63% with 21% saying they would reject him.
But if a strong candidate such as David Miliband emerged then Brown would win member support by 52% - 25%.
YouGov’s membership polls proved to be extraordinarily accurate in the 2001 and 2005 Tory leadership contests when they got the final outcomes to within 1%.
The difference, of course, is that unlike the Tories and the Lib Dems where the ballots of individual party members are sovereign with Labour they have only got one third of the overall votes in the party’s electoral college.
Members of affiliated trade unions have a third of the power while the remaining third is with MPs.
Labour allows multi-voting so if you are an MP member of an affiliated organisation you can cast your vote several times. In 1994 one person was reported to have had seven different votes.
Quite what impact today’s finding will have is hard to say. While the margin over Miliband is not overwhelming it is certainly big enough to discourage a serious challenge.
There have been widespread suggestions that anybody standing against Gordon would not enhance their career prospects.
In the leadership betting there has been a big move back to the Chancellor who had moved out to 0.32/1 last week. This morning’s price is 0.26/1.
UPDATE 0745: The boss of YouGov, Peter Kellner, has been in touch to state that today’s poll covered BOTH ordinary Labour members and trade unionists who will also have a vote. So two third of the party’s electoral college was covered. The break-down was 589 constituency members of the party and and 662 levy-paying union members. In the survey 136 people belonged to both groups, and will have two votes in the coming leadership and deputy leadership ballots.
Mike Smithson
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mike, have you heard anything about maggie?
Well, someone believes it to be true… that font of facts, knowledge and accuracy, Wikipedia, has a date of passing.
Re: 2, think of that what you will.
Apparently it was confirmed on a radio station, but I haven’t heard it myself.
I am rather suspicious that the Newsnow Conservative Party feed has not had a new story since 1.35
http://www.newsnow.co.uk/newsfeed/?name=Conservative+Party
This suggests to me that the presses have stopped, and journalists are scribbling away. Of course, this is only conjecture…
3. You might have got that from me on the other thread. I got it from an anonymous commenter on RecessMonkey! So the whole thing could be a mixture of a wind-up and Chinese whispers.
If this is a terrible perverse joke (sadly, I don’t think it is though) then I suggest the “pranksters” are publicly horsewhipped, and have their kidneys sold to China.
The way the news is leaking out IS reminiscent of Diana’s passing.
wikipedia article no longer states that she is dead…
Actually I got it from the RecessMonkey anonymous as well, sean! So it could indeed be… well… inaccurate.
7. I for one will be very very very very very very angry INDEED if this is a “joke”. F***ing lefties. Sick puppies. They can’t wait to do their stupid smelly clog-dancing on her grave. How I despise them.
But we must wait for confirmation either way before I launch into rant-mode. That was just a warm up.
BTW My excuse for blogging at 3am is that I am in Bangkok!
Mike, on the actual article, rather than the ritual gutting of recess Monkey if he is wrong, who cares what Labour party members think? they only get a third of the vote!
Seriously, if MP’s organise a stitch, up it is a done deal, and there is no one credible with enough balls AND support to go for it.
8. lol my excuse for blogging at 3am is that i have to know if this is true before i go to sleep.
if hilton is wrong, his blog should be boycotted by all people of good taste.
8. My exuse for being up at 3am is that I’m simply a student with a messed up sleeping pattern…. and like ‘anon’ I ‘m reluctant to go to sleep until this is confirmed or denied anyway.
9. As I say, I don’t know who this Hilton guy is, but if this whole thing is his idea of a stunt - and his commenters are now saying it is, and Maggie lives - then I certainly would expect his blog to be shunned and the man disgraced.
Just as some lefties think we on the right don’t know how much pain they went through under Thatch, many on the left don’t realise quite how much loyalty, admiration and reverence Thatcher inspires in many people on the right. And around the world.
I always remember, years ago, in Cairo, telling a cab driver I was British - and the way his face lit up and his eyes shone and he said ‘Margaret Thatcher, a very great woman!’
The lack of any posting by Recess suggest he is asleep… why would he be asleep at a time like this? Maybe he was off his face when he posted this…
… and Radio 4 is totally boring at this time of night.
13. Then, if it IS a drunken gag, he’s gonna wake up with a very BIG hangover. I wouldn’t want to be him in the morning.
14. i’m on fivelive, they do have terrible presenters in the middle of the night.
Well, I am off to bed, I’ll either be sad in the morning or organising a lynching!
15. I have to say the news isn’t on Beeb news 24, Bloomberg, Asia News, al Jazeera news - etc etc - all on my hotel TV. Would an embargo be that efficient worldwide?
Hm.
I really do hope it isn’t true.
i wonder if perhaps an embargo would be until 7.00 or 8.00 in the morning, and that we won’t know the truth until then…
20. My opinion has changed back. Been searching through Recess Monkey’s blog. Yawn, snore, zzz: geeky, attention-seeking, tedious, lefty dribble. A sad place. I can imagine that this person, drunk, might come up with a desperate plan - probably hilarious after three bottles of Co-op Rioja - to boost his non-profile.
If I am wrong, my apologies to the man. If I am right, set the dogs no him.
Anyway. We’ll know in a few hours. Back to the fricking memoirs.
21. i wish i had the same instincts - but for me the silence of the blogosphere is deafening, in a funny kind of way. why has iain dale not got back to us for a while? we might have expected him to say he thought there was no truth in it and had finished investigating for the night. why has guido just put a new story on his blog, without referring to the ‘news’ at all, in spite of comments on his threads? is it possible that mike here knows something but is keeping quiet out of respect? (after all, the chat had been going on for quite a long time before he posted this new thread)
but perhaps these are the musings of someone who is up far too late and should go to sleep…
aaargh! The confusion, the not knowing….
I imagine one reason we have not heard from Ian and Guido etc is because they are all asleep! Not everyone is a student, or a memoirist in Bangkok
This is ridiculous
22/24 - precisely! A deafening silence at 4 (now 6) in the morning is pretty normal even for political obsessives. Anyway, back to bed before my lecture and then back to bed after my lecture again. Have nice days, all.
Well, quickly on topic…
52-25 could be seen as encouraging for both Brown and Miliband (/ any other potential challenger). For Brown, he’s got a margin similar to what Cameron got against Davis of just over 2:1. For Miliband, Brown has only just got half of people going for him suggesting a lot of people are uncertain and want to find out more which they’d have a chance of doing in a leadership contest, meaning there could be a huge chunk votes up for grabs.
And now, to bed.
12. Alex Hilton’s PR company is working for Hilary Benn in the Deputy Leadership contest:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/article1381547.ece
12. Alex Hilton also runs Labour Home:
http://www.labourhome.org/story/2007/1/8/52646/76723
Wow - twenty five posts during two hours all in the middle of the night about a story that no-one will have noticed (presumably it’s not true as it would be difficult to keep quiet were it accurate and in the public domain, though the fact that there seems to have been a single mid-night unusual source should tell its own story). It will be true at some point though, an then we can all say everything we know we’re all going to say. I can’t imagine there are many fence-sitters left.
Anyway, to business. Members want a say in choosing their next leader - shock; and would choose the man everyone expects - further shock! Actually, I agree with GQ on this one; it would be good for the Labour Party, and could be for the challenger and Brown. I say potentially for Brown as he can’t afford a 25%-52% split to close up much. That’s still 23% undecided and they either will decide or won’t count - and of course some could change their mind. The union section could be even more interesting given the current public pay awards (the public sector being more unionised than the private sector).
Miliband’s problems are that (a) he’s ruled himself out and (b) he looks and sounds nothing like a leader. Standing now would probably be too early in his career, though I question whether he’ll ever be a leader - he’s not had the people politics that you need experience of, nor has he an instict for it as we saw on QT. A leftie type still seems most likely to me.
A minor point on the article: the Telegraph spin doesn’t reflect the actual poll. I think a contest would be a good thing (which is what YouGov members were asked). The paper say it means members are ‘demanding’ a contest, which is a different matter and in my opinion not generally true.
On another subject: we’ve got the Lords votes this week in the Commons. The general expectation is that this will produce majorities for 50-50 (Straw’s preferred position) and 80-20 (the official Tory preference), but that the Lords will then find reasons to block any specific Bill. The incoming Labour leadership can then choose between the Parliament Act or puting it in the next manifesto, in my judgement the more likely. It might be interesting to discuss how that will play out with voters.
30. House of Lords reform is of virtually no interest to most voters, and of those who are interested, virtually none will be unaligned. I wouldn’t think there’ll be any net movement on the issue, just like there wasn’t when the current half-measures went through in 1999 (I think).
Besides, the government’s not taking a lead other than to say ‘we think it should change’; parliament’s not taking a lead if it supports two contradictory options; and the House of Lords’ views should have some weight as they’re the ones to be impacted. Use of the Parliament Act on a matter with so little consensus within the HoC would be hugely excessive in the circumstances; a manifesto commit far more appropriate. That said, it would be entirely in keeping with this government’s authoritarian attitude to checks and balances to try and force the measure through.
30 - I hope you’re right, Nick, because without the preferential ballot I am expecting another farce like last time. It would just be tremendously convenient for all concerned if the result is No to everything, as it would once again bury an issue Labour don’t appear to have any real drive to see through.
If you listened to some of the spin, Gordon Brown is going to (within the first 100 days), scrap PMQs, abolish the House of Lords, bring in PR, make it mandatory for the House of Commons (Parliament?) to approve war …
27, 28. Yep, presuming the story was a “joke”, this guy Alex Hilton has a lot of explaining to do. Most unpleasant. Ugh.
Maybe someone hacked his account and posted it for him… just to discredit him?
35. If that’s what they did, it’s done the trick. He is discredited. The blogosphere is a squalid place sometimes.
I just want you to know that I think you did a terrific job on this websight.
I have posted an important update:-
36 - Well I’m not too bothered!
The Thatcher story is not true. Recess Monkey has published a retraction.
Humble apologies to my kind readers.
A journalist friend of mine (who obviously knows me too well) sent me a late night wind-up text message, knowing that I would rush it out before going to bed.
I went to bed trying to come to terms with some very mixed emotions. Trying not to think ill of the dead can be hard under certain circumstances. I surprised myself when I ended up whispering a short intercession asking that Thatcher not be sent to hell, or at least not for eternity. Yet still I want her to have to face what she did to so many families, be it in this life or the next.
http://www.recessmonkey.com/
Thank God!
Hilton should be apologising - and not in the ridiculous way he currently is.
And to think, Iain actually got the BBC to look into this. I wont be reading recess anymore i don’t think.
I don’t think this loathsome little Hilton character should be allowed to get away with this, especially after his non-apology apology.
Note that in his original post, claiming Maggie was dead, he called her ‘Milk Snatcher’. This on the day he thought she was dead. He’s now cut this out, presumably because it so embarrassing.
If he were some meaningless squit witout a proper home, you could ignore it. But he is a meaningless squit with a job working for Hilary Benn, he runs the Labour Home website etc.
I suggest we email H Benn, and indeed the Labour party, asking them what they are doing employing this toad who gloats at the death of an old woman.
Recess Monkey seems to have acted in good faith and one day for certain his story will be true. Compare and contrast with Guido who prints the first thing that comes into his head the vast majority of which will never be true!
46. Bollox. First he filed a fake story. He did this because he desperately wanted to believe it - because he is so keen to jump up and down on Maggie’s grave. At the same time he thought the day this old woman died would be a good day to call her ‘Milk Snatcher’.
Then he does a pathetic apology for an apology, claiming he prayed for her soul. Yeah, right, on the day heckled her hearse, calling her Milk Snatcher.
What a nasty piece of work. How typical of the Left. Guido may be a shoot-em-up blogger who gets things wrong occasionally, but he aims for people in power, and he doesn’t go round gobbing at corpses.
Yuk. Clean up your act.
45. Yes Sean we should do something about this Hilton pratt.
You can be a sanctimonious old bore sometimes! Surely you can find something interesting to do in Bangkok?
48. All that needs to be done is for someone to ring up Hilary Benn MP, and Hilton’s PR company, and perhaps the Labour party, and ask them what they are doing employing a man who makes sick fake posts about Margaret Thatcher dying. And abuses her at the same time, by calling her ‘Milk Snatcher’. This man spits at funerals. Nice.
They won’t sack Hilton. But I imagine there will be some embarrassment, sufficient to hinder his career.
I’d do it but I’m in Bangkok.
44 - was that double negative intended? So hard to tell in the written word…
49. F*** off Roger. Maggie is my heroine. My Joan of Arc. My Gloriana. No one knocks her while I’m around. Especially speccy little non-entities like this amphibious fishface Alex Hilton.
My chivalrous instincts are aroused!
Isn’t there some sort of literary tradition of announcing peoples death prematurely?
These Maggie’s dead rumours circulate every now and then, and people are si gullible with their reactions it simply means they will continue to circulate.
Have a sense of realism about it FFS! When she dies it will be on the news properly and there will be big coverage as the news agencies are already well prepared for the event, and have their tributes etc already prepared.
So it won’t be eeking out through some obscure blogsite - it will be hard not to know once it happens - no matter what time of night!
Maggie won’t really have kicked the bucket until it’s announced on THE MOST RELIABLE NEW BLOG IN THE COUNTRY.
http://orangebyname.blogspot.com/
I met her a couple of years ago - absolutely terrifying. Dennis had completely lost sanity so it was no surprise to hear the news about him a week or two later.
Wasn’t it Mark Twain who said ‘Reports of my death were greatly exaggerated’?
Perhaps this could bring out a side of Maggie few of us have seen. A sense of humour.
53 Roger - You are thinking of Mark Twain, who famously announced reports of his death to be greatly exaggerated. As far as I know, however, nobody commented disparagingly on his alleged departure. Hilton was out of order in that respect. He was also out of order in not checking his source against another. His ‘retraction’ also left much to be desired.
Sean T is right. Monkey needs to clean up act.
I’m surprised at Benn employing such a character.
54. Fair point. But fuel was added to the fire last night by anonymous people claiming they’d heard it on the radio. Then the Wikipedia entry got changed. Bizarre.
It’s an interesting case of net-rumour-spreading. With the web, rumours spread so much quicker, and can be manufactured out of nothing.
But if I was gonna invent an Internet rumour I’d come up with a sight more entertaining one than the notion that an 82 year old woman had passed away. Silly boys.
58 - The last time such a rumour circulated there was even a BBC web page mock up that people were linking to! That made it seem a bit more convincing until you actually looked at the web address instead of what was on your screen…
56. “Perhaps this could bring out a side of Maggie few of us have seen. A sense of humour.”
Have you not seen her final Commons performance as leader? “What a good idea” et cetera. Most accounts of her suggest she had quite a wicked sense of humour. I recall Hugo Young revealing the time when she entered a room where he was sitting and said (paraphrased) “Shouldn’t you get a proper job, Hugo, like starting a small business?”. It really bugged Young that he hadn’t been sharp enough to retort “After you, Prime Minister”.
See Jack W’s comment 27 on the next thread.
61 Peter J. Thank you …. I note you’ve been a cheer leader for me a couple of times recently …. fan
or stalker 
????
Firstly, I think the poll is actually quite good for Miliband. Although it seems huge, a 25 point deficit is nothing months before an election when he hasn’t even declared (as late as September 2005 Cameron was on 7%). More significant is a poll in the Guardian a few days ago that suggested that out of 190 MPs 60 MPs were going to vote for Brown, 60 MPs for anyone but Brown and 70 MPs were undecided - if Brown can’t get more than a 1/3rd of the PLP after 10 years as chancellor he has real problems. I would also question YouGov’s methodology, some union members are more centrist than others so until they disclose the exact union the people were members of I’d be very sceptical.
Any idea when Yougov will publish the full data themselves? What are the rules regarding this?
56. A sense of humour? But what about the miners’ strike?
63: ‘if Brown can’t get more than a 1/3rd of the PLP after 10 years as chancellor he has real problems’
Not if he gets the support it seems he has from other parts of the Labour Party electorate.
Test -
:blush: