Is McDonnell set to get his 44 nominations?
March 17th, 2007-
Has the left-winger been helped by the Trident rebellion?
A comment on today’s thread by Pimpernel, who is usually well-informed about Labour affairs, suggests that the left-winger who was first to declare for the leadership, John McDonnell, looks set to get the required 44 nominations to be on the ballot alongside Brown.
Pimpernel wrote: “I was told last night that John McDonnell is almost certain now to get enough nominations to stand, but that Meacher is likely to fall short. This was from a Brown supporter who is close to the PLP.”
Clearly this week’s big rebellion over Trident has made many in the left and centre left to be even more determined that Brown should face a challenge when the contest is launched in a few weeks time. There was a hint in January that McDonnell was doing quite well getting the required level of MP support and the signs are that he might be successful.
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McDonnell great strength over the other left-winger to declare, Michael Meacher, is that he was totally opposed to the Iraq war. Meacher voted for it and his comments about “bitterly regretting the decision” ring rather hollow.
If, indeed, this latest information is correct and Brown will be challenged the question is whether one or more other contenders would find it easier to come in. Who knows? But getting onto the ballot, if this is what McDonnell is now able to do, will change the whole race.
Whatever any confirmation that McDonnell is certain to run will see a big tightening in his betting price. Clearly his chances of beating Gordon are not great but his price will surely move in from the current 169/1. I’ve put on a bit more.
Mike Smithson
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It would be somewhat more reliable if the info came from a neutral. Both McDonnell and Brown have all sorts of reasons for wanting to exaggerate his chances.
Good news to the barmey socialists!
I am an anti-socialist, however i was a member of amicus uptil december 2006. I was then out of work, this means that when it comes to voting in a new prime minister as i accidently on purpose forgot to click the box opting out of the political levy (Even though i have never paid it as i stopped the payments in december) i get a vote in the Labour election! You guessed it Mcdonnell gets my vote or the barmy michael meacher! Awwwright!!!
2. I did not resign the said membership! So technically i am still amember of the Amicus union and therefore affilated to the cash for honours party.
Well, it could be interesting, but very sad news. For a start I will owe you a tenner!
Still, if he does get them then I wonder if a Blairite, maybe Miliband will stand?
Could make an interesting race. Obviously if he gest nominated his odds have to come in from 169/1 by quite some way. A chance to back now and lay later locking in profit!
It would be a great political experiement if the lunitic left won the leadership of the Labour party! I think Cameron would win by about 300 seats and the potential for parliamentry roadkill would be huge!!!
re 4. Yes Benedict - I’ve already committed the £10 you will owe me with a bet on Betfair at 220/1 on McDonnell.
I like no-risk zero-cost betting.
alex @ 1 — erm, no. This is dangerous for Brown since it encourages more heavyweight candidates to stand, soliciting nominations on the basis that if anything happens to Brown during the campaign, McDonnell would become PM by default.
re 6, Git!
6 Mike S. That’s £10 Benedict might have used to advertize his blog on ToryLonelyLoins.blog.
7 - Seems a bit unlikely don’t you think? If for whatever reason, political or otherwise, something “happened” to Brown that effectively ruled him out, I can’t believe the election would go on regardless. Most of the Parliamentary Labour party would refuse to accept his leadership and they’d have to run it again.
For the reason of potential Libel action (If false) and with respect to mike i will only skirt around this; one thing i have heard of is the Michael Meacher assistant rumour. Whilst i doubt the validity of this rumour and obviously i am not going to go into detail: It could cause a problem to Brown. Maybe this is why Meacher is standing?
I can think of other politcians who were sunk by similar accusations or confessions, in other parties. I actually want Brown to win because i think he will be good for democracy i.e. Labour will get booted out and the tories might get a couple of terms. So this is not a spoiler post as my previous posts may imply, just a response to 7 & 10.
Re 11, *cough* Martin, you couldn’t email me that one?
alex @ 10 — the point is that it makes it easier for ABB candidates to get on the ballot paper, not that McDonnell has a snowball’s.
2 - I find it sad that anybody interested in politics would vote for McDonnell as PM. Martin, do you have the interests of the country at heart at all.
There are many Tories out there, of which Osborne is the prime example, mostly comfortable in their own material existence, who wish for recession, inflation and unemployment as it will tarnish Labour and make a Conservative victory assured.
Please assure us that you do not think like this.
14. Haha well personally I do; we have no hope of anything better under Labour, some short term pain (not for me) would be worthwhile I’d say.
12: Benedict, you’re obviously not reading enough wacky conspiracy websites.
I forgot to say, go McDonnel!
15 - perhaps you’d like civil unrest, race riots and another disastrous war abroad, if it leads to further decline in Labour’s support and makes Conservative victory more likely.
Or an ebola outbreak? Or a nuclear war?
heheh anything that doesnt cause death I’d say. People get the governments they deserve after all!
14 - have you based these stated view of Osborne on anything concrete, or have you just mistaken predictions for desire?
I’m sure LibDems took grave offence when their predictions about the war in Iraq were taken as willing failure.
20. C’mon, do you even slightly think that Osbourne, Cameron or anyone like that doesn’t wish for a recession? I would be greatly disapointed if they didn’t for sure!
14 SBS - there is a difference between concern over the risks through off balance borrowing, deficits at the top of economic cycle, housing bubbles, private debt levels etc and wishing for a recession. Fear is that Brown has created the conditions that could worsen any downturn into a major recession.
It comes down if you like to the 7 years of plenty and 7 years of famine - Brown hasn’t been prudent in terms of preparing for the famine. There seems a belief on his part that he’s broken the boom/bust cycle - hubris IMHO though the retribution will most probably be visited on a successor.
How far do you think the odds will fall if McDonnell actually runs?
20 - Re: Iraq - I don’t think anybody really derives anysatisfaction from the destruction of a country and the death of so many people, including British forces.
As for Osborne, you only have to see his excitement (practically wetting himself) and satisfaction at every bad economic indicator. Cameron, I think, is rather more grown-up. At least I hope so.
So no evidence in other words.
25 - Only circumstantial evidence. It could be that Osborne prays every night that all ticks by very well under Labour’s stewardship.
I would expect McDonnell to get the required signatures. The must be MPs who would not vote for him, but would nominate him so there is a contest.
The only party leadership that I can think of that was a coronation was Michael Howard. In that case, the Tories were in such a state, that they did not have much choice, but to get on with a unity candidate, and quickly.
I recall Liam Fox lambasting the government over not protecting us from SARS, how right he was, look how many of us died of it, bloody millions, if fact I died of it, or was it bird flu? Every opposition hopes for a disaster that they can blame on the government, they would be telling fibs if they didn’t!!!
OT. Latest polls from the States, all from Time :
Dem .. Clinton 34% .. Obama 26% .. Gore 13% .. Edwards 10%
Rep .. Giuliani 40% .. McCain 20% .. Gingrich 10% .. Romney 7%
Head to Heads :
Giuliani/Clinton 47/43 .. Giuliani/Obama 43/44
McCain/Clinton 44/44 .. McCain/Obama 41/44
Hmmm, didn’t expect my slipped in comment to generate this much interest! It was more a signal to those who remember Mike’s post a week or so ago about backing McDonnell and picking up a profit even if he lost provided he actually got on the ballot.
As the info I’ve received now makes this seem far more likely than I’d previously thought, perhaps Mike could re post those weird bet details again?
O/T,but a humanitarian public health warning -the choice of Britain’s Eurovision entry is mad ,on BBC1,7.30-8.30 pm,followed ny 9.30-10.00 pm-you have been warned!!!
McDonnell’s now down to 119/1 on Betfair.
31. You can send the best song on earth…but it’s likely you’ll get 0 points and East Europe nations will keep on tactical voting each other
Andrea,you are lucky to have,from re-collection,not been born till 1982- as a 10 year-old in 1981,I had etched onto my brain ‘Making Your Mind Up’ by Bucks Fizz-arrrgggghhhhh!:lol:
I hope McDonnell does get his chance. He represents a strand of opinion in the Party that needs to be heard. Though most of us know that Labour values are miles away from the Tories Blair by his craven behaviour towards the US and his macho desire to arm to the teeth has left a confusion in many peoples minds.
I heard the admirable Nick Kershaw say on radio the other day that he had been asked to stand for Parliament. “For Labour”? “God no! For The Lib Dems they are far to the left of Labour” What an indictment of Blairs Labour Party! But that’s what some people believe. Some clowns even think the Tories are to the left of Labour!
I happen to believe that an election against a left wing no hoper will force Brown to reveal his inner self which is at heart a man with a deep social conscience. Brown can expose Cameron like no one else but first he has to show that his values are quite different from his predecessor.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/matthew_parris/article1528019.ece
Some clowns even think the Tories are to the left of Labour
Well if they believe, to take a random example, that ID cards are “right wing” then they would be right.
There has been a strange silence regarding the rugby on this site today. most unusual
38. Congratulations to Wales for avoiding the wooden spoon.
I don’t normally distrust peoples motives but with Matthew Parris I make an exception. If he’s trying to write out Gordons chances then I seriously think the Tories are worried. He is amongst the most partisan of all political commentators and if he really thought Gordon was a vote loser he would want him to win.
40 - lol.
Sunday Times poll - Con 38, Lab 32, Cameron 41, Brown 31
Do you really think the McDonnell odds will fall that much… can’t see him much south of 100-1 myself? Assuming the Tories can spend £20 million on the next general election they should just lay him and collect 200k - because if he wins they won’t need to campaign in it.
35. ‘I happen to believe that an election against a left wing no hoper will force Brown to reveal his inner self which is at heart a man with a deep social conscience’
Very moving, almost brought tears to my eyes. Berk.
40 - Parris’ article was very honest, it’s funny seeing tory commentators being able to say what they really believe about Brown vs Miliband or whoever (to their evident amusement) and the labour supporters getting themselves so tied in knots they think it’s a double or triple bluff!
You also do what the Luntz panel were doing (my reply is on the end of that thread) and projecting your hopes onto Brown. A lot of people are going to be very disappointed when it’s realised that he can’t be everything. No matter if it’s you or someone else he cannot meet the expectations being heaped on him.
41 - Con up 1%, last time lib dems were 18% if anyone knows the new figure.
He doesn’t need to be perfect just better than his opponents and in my opinion that shouldn’t be too difficult!
Alex - where did you get you info on the poll - which I assume is YouGov.
46 - But you’d vote labour anyway, so, in essence, like all but a small minority of voters you just don’t count.
44 - quite. The fact that the Tory party organisation has improved to the extent that they are able to control the thoughts of every Conservative in the country so that they almost all are working towards a strategy of trying to persuade Labour to pick someone else must have severe implications for the election
I think the obvious reality is that the vast majority of Conservatives don’t really fear Brown, although they realise at the same time that Labour selecting anyone else could disastrously backfire as well.
On balance though, they prefer the idea of Brown simply because they think they know what they’re going to get, he’s got a record they can attack, and they’ve spent months preparing for him. And obviously they prefer the certainty of this to the unknown which would be a Miliband etc.
But ultimately they are quite happy perpetuating uncertainty within the Labour party.
47 - Sky News
I’ve just read your message. Who played Titania and Oberon? I have fond memories of that play from Stratford many years ago when I was friendly with a few of the actors there. I went to see The Producers on stage a couple of weeks ago and it was very good.
My advertising isn’t brilliant! I execute other peoples ideas and hopefully improve them. I’m never responsible for the concept!
RE 42, JON, :LOL:
We welcome the appearance of a leadership battle when Tony decides the time is right for him to step down. It is important that this matter does not look like a coronation. New Labour is a broad church and it is important that all those who would take us back into opposition by leaving us without the nuclear option are seen to have their say. We would welcome any successor to Tony who embraces the principles that have made Britain safer and a far better place than it was ten years ago.
Interesting how McDonnell is giving the impression of being ahead of Meacher, given that people on here were a few months ago saying that a more plausible candidate of the left such as Meacher would have a better chance of the 44 than McDonnell!
Labour ex-supporters of the war have an easier get out than just ‘my biggest mistake’ as they can easily claim that they were duped on false intelligence. The Tories can’t get away with this as they were far more gung ho about removing Saddam from power.
Finally, I don’t believe that a leftist candidate would flush out a Blairite challenger - there are a limited number of Labour MPs who want anyone but Gordon, or for there to be a challenge, and they will have enough trouble getting one candidate onto the ballot, let alone two. I’d have thought that McDonnell *failing* to get the 44 nominations would have made it easier for another candidate to emerge.
Are you kidding, I backed Wales to win that game, which after my losses on laying Kauto Star provides a welcome relief but the result of the day may still be in play..Ireland to beat Pakistan in the cricket.
51 - Was that in Manchester with Peter Kay? I saw it with Lee Evans who was great. The MND is an Asian production, here’s the review round-up.
http://www.whatsonstage.com/index.php?pg=207&story=E8821173963483
(totally off topic, sorry………)
41.”Cameron 41, Brown 31 ”
is it voting intentions, the “best PM” question or the “do you prefer a govern led by DC or GB” question?
On McDonnell, it might be worth a small bet on him now, not because he is in with any chance but there is such a rumour mill around Brown and so many mouthpieces trying to undermine him, that any challenge, even by that nutbag, could well be given way too much credence. This could be be reflected in an over reaction in the market.
38: Yes, well done Wales. Strange result really, considering all the teams Enlgand have beaten you’ve lost to.
OT. (56. Sounds excellent. Yes and a fine production in spite of Peter Kay who played the theatre director. Not a major part. I never liked the Roundhouse but I’m sure it’s improved. I saw Oh Calcutta! there during a school holiday!).
44. Indeed - the biggest problem is how very different the expectations of different people/groups are about what GB can achieve. To use a couple of extreme examples, naifs like Roger seem to think he will usher in a New Jerusalem of socialist purity, while the manic Snowflake is looking forward to some kind of steamroller of managerial ruthlessness. The gap between expectations and reality threatens to be as wide as the Grand Canyon.
61 - it should be pointed out that a lot of Conservatives are projecting all their “hopes” onto Brown as well.
Re 61, Yes Roger Hugger, there are different expectations of Brown. However do not underestimate the innate will of some to deceive themselves into believing they have got what they wanted even if they haven’t.
However clearly Roger and Snowflake can’t be easily pleased at the same time.
56 I have no idea what the produuction is like but I saw it in New York over a year ago and it was just a supreme piece of work. One of the best things I’ve seen.
35 -”I heard the admirable Nick Kershaw say on radio the other day that he had been asked to stand for Parliament. “For Labour”? “God no! For The Lib Dems they are far to the left of Labour””
Do you mean Nik “I won’t let the sun go down on me” Kershaw? Has he been near a radio station in 20 years? Or do you mean Andy Kershaw (apparently a big mate of Lembit, according to the Indy’s Lembit interview today)?
As we found out during the Oscars, Roger’s not great with first names
Nick Kershaw gave up music to devout his time to helping Labour, didn’t he? But as ‘I won’t let the sun go down on me’ was about nuclear war, perhaps the Trident vote drove him into Ming’s adoring arms!
‘Wouldn’t it be Good’ was a timeless pop classic.
Sorry SBS Andy Kershaw! Dyslexia again. Me and Celia Hammond….
Nik Kershaw wrote “I am the one and only”. Originally this was sung by the lead singer of Ugly Rumours, just after the band split. But it was later made famous by Chesney Hawkes.
As we’re talking classy music, our Eurovision entry has just been announced. I’d heard that Cyndi at 10-1 was value, and she ultimately came second to Scooch, a song about flying containing the lines:
“Some salted nuts, sir?”
“Would you like something to suck on for landing, sir?”
Nil points or Eurowinner? Reckon that we’ll do better than last year, but whichever Slavic entry is the craziest will win.
71 - Forget the Scottish, Welsh and the English local elections.
The Eurovision Song contest is surely the biggest political voting exercise of the year and, as such, should be right up the street of this site.
I know for a fact that most of Meacher’s MPs have defected to the McDonnell camp since Meacher’s disastrous launch. Meacher’s described as a “lameduck” now. I believe this is going to become clear in the next few weeks. Now Meacher’s sunk it’s apparently almost certain McDonnell will get the 44 but a Blairite challenger might complicate that
Further to my post at 72:
I think it’s perhaps worthing mentioning that Tony Blair’s resignation will likely be announced not many days before the Eurovision Song Contest (12th May).
If this is the case then expect a slightly increased vote for the UK entry from the much relieved people of Europe. If Tony Blair hasn’t announced his resignation before the contest then the UK will doubtless be punished again in this international pop(ularity) competition…
Interestingly, the last time the UK won the contest was on the back of Tony Blair’s first GE victory. Well, it certainly wasn’t anything to do with the song was it?
73. Shocking for Meacher if this is so. I thought he mighht be able to cannibalize McDonnell’s signatures and rally a handful more to make it on to the ballot in a way that McDonnell might not have quite managed.
A couple of weeks or so ago it became increasingly like Meacher was not getting far at all.
Surely though a Blairite challenger will gathering their signatures from a largely different pool than McDonnell or Meacher?
John will get on the ballot paper. The Trident debate has focussed minds wonderfully.Much more interesting than a coronation.
How does McDonnell compare in political outlook with, say, another “Loonie leftie” who has proven highly successful in power, Ken Livingstone?
Glad to see Scooch back in Euro 2007!
Super Ireland/Bangladesh
Can gain everything
77. McDonnell was Livingstone’s deputy on he GLC. He was sacked by Ken after holding out for an illegal rate precept. Ken is a realist, John is an impossibilist.
The mention earlier of Martin Day potentially voting for McDonnell reminded me of the Revolutionary Communists back when I used to go to NUS conferences (the biggest waste of time and money ever). The RCP used to back the most right wing factions and I believe always voted Tory… in order to set up the necessary conditions for the revolution. Needless to say, the SWP, Socialist Organiser, and all the other Trots hated them - but then they hated each other too.
75: Apparently all but 2 Meacherites (other than Meacher, of course) have defected to the McDonnell camp. Hasn’t helped that the Tory benches explode in spontaneous cheering every time Meacher stands up in the House. He also seems to have become a hate figure on the Labour Left (which, let’s face it, wasn’t exactly his aim) - see the poll on LabourHome. Apparently those closest to Meacher (such as they exist) are trying to convince him to stand down before he humiliates himself even further.
You’re right that a Blairite challenger will gather signatures from a different pool of MPs. The impact will be if some ’soft left’ MPs rally behind Brown as the lesser of two evils if a Blairite stands, or McDonnell could lose some MPs who would have agreed to nominate him on the basis there should be a contest.
The wisdom in the Westminster Bubble is increasingly that McDonnell will get on the ballot paper - but hey, who knows what will happen in the next seven weeks.
80 When I was at the LSE in the early seventies the Tories and Communists used to agree how to vote against the hated broad Left… real Communists hated the Trots of course more than the Conservatives.
There’s a BPIX survey in the Mail tomorrow for those interested..
83 Any details?
82 - Personally I loathed the NUS conferences I went to, and never had a clue how to vote on most motions. The LDs were not too organised either, but were broadly allied to (moderate) Labour, as both were seen as reformist. In fact, NOLS (National Organisation of Labour Students / Lobotomised Sheep) used to produce very good papers explaining “This is a Trotskyite motion to prevent reform of … Oppose the motion”. So I generally followed the Labour line.
There were no Tories in those days. And anybody called independent was deemed either to be an extreme Zionist or a Pro-lifer.
Heady days in Blackpool - ahhhh!
84 http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/news/article-23389373-details/Cameron’s%20green%20tax%20on%20air%20travel%20a%20massive%20vote%20loser/article.do
A total of 38 per cent would vote for Mr Cameron in a General Election, putting him seven percentage points ahead of Mr Brown on 31 per cent. Sir Ming Campbell’s Liberal Democrats are languishing on 14 per cent.
http://content-uk.cricinfo.com/wc2007/engine/current/match/247465.html
Labour peer injures foot. OK - I feel sorry for her, but isn’tthe hon member for Aberdeen South in a wheelchair and still able to carry out her duties.
“Baroness Corston has applied for a ’substantial sum’ in compensation from the Parliamentary authorities for slipping on a carpeted step in the division lobby…
As in other trades and professions, MPs who retire early because of ill-health get the same pension they would have been entitled to had they carried on until they were 65.”
RUBBISH! Most people in the private sector certainly don’t “get the same pension they would have been entitled to had they carried on until they were 65.”
http://www.mailonsunday.co.uk/pages/live/articles/news/news.html?in_article_id=442940&in_page_id=1770
88 - excuse the bizarrely wrong link…
88.”isn’tthe hon member for Aberdeen South in a wheelchair and still able to carry out her duties”
yes, she’s in a wheelchair. And I suppose she carries out her duties well judging from her 2005 GE performance.
Re 80 sbs.
YouGov in S TImes is Cons 38% - Lab 32%
WIth Cameron vs Brown it is 41% Cons to 31% Lab!
OK - I see someone beat to me to it by miles! lol
That seems to prove Mike S’s theory about Cameron publicity - Cameron all over the papers with anti editorials due to Airline green taxes. Increase (OK within error) on YouGov. The BPIX one is equally interesting because the ask about the taxes but still seems not to dent the polls.
Ted This is London ( a Daily mail online clone) leads the whole story with a diatribe about the poll showing how damaging the air tax plan is for Cameron and then has to come out with the voting intention figures and news of a positive response on the Tories housing improvement tax relief idea.
You can just tell they hate the result. Why is Dacre so attached to Brown?
Remind me again: the Daily Mail is a left wing Labour supporting newspaper, isn’t it?
96 Word for wod in the Mail on Sunday, I now see.
They must have spit blood to write this:
“However, the negative reaction to Mr Cameron’s latest policies has done little to dim voters’ overall enthusiasm for his party. …..
A total of 38 per cent would vote for Mr Cameron in a General Election, putting him seven percentage points ahead of Mr Brown on 31 per cent. Sir Ming Campbell’s Liberal Democrats are languishing on 14 per cent.
And Mr Cameron’s enthusiasm for environmental issues has won general approval. ……
But the environment is far from top of voters’ lists of concerns. Crime, immigration, the NHS and schools are all regarded as more important.
Even so, there is support for another Conservative idea to give tax incentives to property-owners who improve the energy efficiency of their homes with double-glazing or better insulation.”
Witan, What do you expect of Lord Rothermere’s lot?
News paper proprietors look to set the agenda. If you read this article on my blog you will see that Cameron could not care less:
http://aconservatives.blogspot.com/2007/03/impact-of-new-media_10.html
BTW, latest on cash for peerages, with my take on the Telegraph story about Sir Christopher Evans.
98,Could I say,that as a long-term Labour voter,I see the pattern of 10-12% leads over the last few weeks in a hypothetical GB v DC contset,and I am starting to think the worst-FWIW,I can see the gap widening a bit further between now and local election day-phew,is that going to be a bad night:wink:
I would say furthermore that comparing now to the 1987-1992 parlaiment is of little comfort,as comapratively,the Lab-Con swing is greater now,working from the 2005 election,than it was in March 1989,working from the 1987 election -O.K,only by a couple of percentage points,but I would certainly not bank on GB winning next time as we speak
96. “Why is Dacre so attached to Brown?”
Because, despite Gordon’s froth, they’re both basically Tories?
Do not rule out a ‘grand coalition’ between Brown and Cameron in the event of a hung Parliament, with Ming Campbell as Leader of the Opposition. Remember, on the big issues, like messing up the health service through privatisation and inflated managememnt salaries, cutting the police (good Tory government record, here), cocking up on customs and immigration (Mickey Howard as guilty as Reid Blunkett and Straw) hypocrisy on the Environment, Trident and Iraq war you cannot put a fag paper between GB and DC. Same, of course, on ID cards despite Chameleon’s recent rhetoric. We know where Callmedave stood when there was not political milage to make, don’t we?
A “grand coalition” between Brown and the Tories is unthinkable. The Labour party would split in a heartbeat - and those remaining with Brown would be a tiny minority.
A coalition between the Tories and the whatever remains of the Liberals after the next election is not out of the questions. Again, this could split the Liberals with the Orange Book going with Cameron, and the ’social liberals’ (such as Evan Harris) going the other way. Menzies Campbell would probably be foreign secretary.
“A “grand coalition” between Brown and the Tories is unthinkable”
They said that in Germany, too (the names being slightly different).
What happened?
103: No they didn’t. There was a similar grand coalition in the 60s in Germany, for a start.