YouGov: “Labour’s deficit 4% bigger with Brown”
March 18th, 2007-
Will the Chancellor be bringing on Deborah again?
There are two news polls in the papers this morning both of which were carried out by the internet pollster YouGov and both of which give fairly similar main voting shares. Only one of them, however, appears under the YouGov name.
The main headline figures in the Sunday Times with changes on the last YouGov survey show CON 38% (+1): LAB 32% (nc): LD 16% (-1). I cannot find a figure for Ming’s party in the online report.
The other poll, by BPIX in the Mail on Sunday shows CON 38%: LAB 31%: LD 14%. My understanding is that the fieldwork for this pollster is carried out by YouGov. BPIX is not listed as a member of the British Polling Council and so does not have to follow the agreed transparency rules.
The Sunday Times survey also asked the named leader voting question - something that YouGov has not done since March 2006. This question is testing how people would vote with Brown and Cameron named as leaders. The outcome will not please Brown’s supporters for it showed CON 41%: LAB 31%: LD 13%
This is in line with the recent Populus and ICM polls which both reported jumps in the Tory position when this question was asked.
-
This extra polling deficit for Brown, which has been shown in all but two surveys where this was asked in the past 16 months, must infuriate the Chancellor’s camp and often leads to his Smith Institute colleague and Labour pollster, Deborah Mattinson, being rolled out to rubbish the findings.
Will Brown be perceived differently when he is actually in the job and all the focus will be on the changes he is bringing in? Maybe - maybe not. But as I have said repeatedly these sorts of figures will make the party feel that less comfortable about the succession.
For the Cameron gang these latest polls will provide relief that their air tax proposals, though not welcomed by voters, do not seem to have done their party any harm. They reinforce my oft-repeated view that the more their leader is in the public eye the better the Tory ratings get - something that will further frustrate Cameron’s opponents within the party and the media.
In the Labour leadership betting the Brown price has tightened to 0.24/1.
Mike Smithson
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Mike Smithson
Thes polls certainly not good for the Lib Dems?
Scotland on Sunday reports “CHARLES Kennedy, the former Lib Dem leader, is to be hauled into the party’s Scottish election campaign in a bid to boost its low profile.
The ex-leader, who quit last year after admitting to a drink problem, will be sent out alongside Scots leader Nicol Stephen on campaign visits, in the hope his well-known face will inject some star quality into the party’s election bid.
Campaign chiefs said last night they hoped Kennedy would bring them the same success as he did last year, when his work in the Dunfermline Westminster by-election campaign was credited with having contributed significantly to the party’s shock win.
But the move will also be seen as a clear admission that Stephen has yet to gain a proper profile, and therefore needs Kennedy to bolster his image.
A senior campaign source said: “Charles Kennedy is going to play a serious role in the campaign. He is going to give us a lot of days’ campaigning”
Read into this what you may
Good article in the Independent this morning - apologising for getting it wrong on Cannabis.
http://news.independent.co.uk/uk/health_medical/article2368994.ece
It is something - but the damage inflicted will not be repaired by a simple article.
I look forward to a similar apology on Zimbabwe (etc).
Mike - from the story you link to, it looks like the BPIX figures aren’t current voting intention but how people would vote if Brown was Labour’s leader.
It looks like quite a curious set of dynamics comparing the Blair/Cameron figures with Brown/Cameron (I know the leaders aren’t named in the first question, which will of itself have some effect - see below - but it’s a useful shorthand to differentiate between the two questions).
Labour drops 1% but the Conservatives pick up three. Presumably most of Labour’s drop is also a Tory gain, but the change in Labour leader appears to prompt a switch from Lib Dem or others to Conservative. That’s possible; it could be tactical unwinding. Equally, it might be a symptom of mentioning the party leaders’ names: Cameron’s persona is nice and cuddly; Brown’s is the taxman out to raid your wallet.
But there is (at least) one other possibility - and we’ll see when the figures are released. The change of leader could be prompting previously abstaining Conservatives, or voters who weren’t that bothered one way or the other, to move to the Tories. After all, turnout has been well down in the last two elections and there were a lot of non-voters. Who turns out will be at least as important as which way swing voters who regularly go to the polls turn.
“They reinforce my oft-repeated view that the more their leader is in the public eye the better the Tory ratings get - something that will further frustrate Cameron’s opponents within the party and the media.”
Does that mean the worst thing Labour can do is keep talking about him, even if it’s to slag him off, in your opinion? I certainly think it’s a possibility - I don’t think the chameleon thing was a one-off in terms of how it backfired.
6: I think you’ve got a point Raj. Labour/the LDs have spent a lot of time attacking Cameron as a ’same old Tory’ e.g. saying that no-one will take the Conservatives seriously on health.
I’m probably speaking out of naivety, but that seems really silly to me: remind everyone of what the Tories used to be like, and let Cameron demonstrate how different he is. Surely attacking him head on, e.g. on the botched EPP withdrawal raises doubts over his judgment and competence, rather than trying to convince people he doesn’t mean any of what he says because he’s a Tory?
O/T. On the American presidentials, California has moved its primary to early February and the other big states may follow.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/17635351/
This should favour any candidate who can make a significant break from the field in the four states deciding in January, but if that doesn’t happen then it will be all about the money and organisation. There’s also the possibility, especially on the Democrat side, that it could end without any candidate having a clear lead by the time half the delegates have been allocated. If that happens, there’s a very real chance that far from the party choosing its candidate earlier in the year, it could go all the way to the convention for the first time in decades.
I think that’s unlikely on the Republican side: there isn’t the strength in depth or ‘weight’ necessary to stop someone running away with it sooner or later. It could happen for Hillary & co.
Sunday Times, Lib Dem figure is 16%, at least its more than the 14% Others.
Re Labour Deputy leadership race
What do you make of this?
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article1530593.ece
“Henderson confided that Gordon Brown had contacted Sutcliffe to privately pledge his support for Johnson’s campaign, which he could not do publicly until the contest formally started”
[2] I’m sure that’s the right thing for both Kennedy and the LDs to do - let’s be clear that it would have been easy for him to leave politics altogether (and probably he’d make more money, too) - I wish him well. (Longstanding Peebies will know why.)
[5] I actually think that turn-out next time will go down. Cameron’s problem is that “presentable new leader re-invents party” has been done by Blair and people know what it leads to.
Both major parties may have more difficulty motivating their activists next time than ever before - and hence design campaigns that don’t rely on them. I’ll stick my neck out a bit further and make another prediction - that whatever the funding rules are at the next election, both Labour and the Conservatives will break them.
While Blair clings on these polls tell us very little. Who with any respect would tell a pollster that they’d vote for this paralyzed leaderless Labour Party?
A resonable comparison would be with Majors Tory Party in ‘95 after he resigned as leader. If I remember Labours lead then was into the 20’s and 30’s. Fortunately the important issues are all positive and at general elections this is what counts.
That the gap is only 7% is remarkable. Whether it tells us more about unembarrassed nature of the Labour core voter or the underlying weakness of the Tory project is difficult to know but I’ve no doubt that when Labour regroup under Brown Cameron’s lead will be a distant memory!
Andrea @ 10 — it does not seem very plausible. What is in it for Brown? It may well be some idle boasting designed to show how well connected these people are, that was not intended to be picked up by the Sunday Times.
O/t But when will Mike folow the No 10 Website and update that ancient picture of Gordon used in the Pb.com masthead (perhaps also updating Cameron’s with his new hair arrangement)
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article1527812.ece
11. IA - Turnout may indeed go down (though my prediction is that it won’t - closer elections tend to bring out voters even in safer seats), but I’m raising the possibility that it might explain what are on the face of it, quite a difficult set of figures to explain - a change in Labour leader has more effect on the Conservative share than the Labour one.
I don’t think Cameron will have any problem motivating activists if the polls are even close to what they are now. It’s already 14 years since we had a steady lead and even more since we had one on this scale; while there are undoubtedly people within the party who have doubts as to the direction Cameron is leading them in, this is trumped by the scent of power. It’s also a damn sight easier to get canvassers to go out on the doorstep or to hit the telephone when the voters are a lot more pleasantly disposed towards the party.
Funnily enough, I don’t think Labour will have that many problems either. After an easy win in 2001 (I know 1997 was as well, but after 1992 the activists wanted to see the ballot papers before believing it, and besides, there was the motivation then of kicking out the Tories), and a grudging win which always looked likely, this time those that are left will have more of a reason to fight for it.
p.s. I agree with you re Kennedy, though it doesn’t say much for Ming.
12. Isn’t it boring writing exactly the same posts over and over again, Roger?
re 12. The deficit with Brown in charge could Roger, of course, be much much larger. That’s what all the polls are suggesting.
13. John L. Ivan Henderson is certainly somehow connected to Brown. He was selected for Clacton on Thursday and on Friday he was already showing quotes by Brown congratulation for his selection.
However how connected and how reliable his tittle tattle can be is another thing.
17. These hypothetical questions are never likely to produce a serious answer. Remember when Clarke was touted as leader of the Tory Party and he added several% to their vote? The Luntz focus group was interesting. The only thing most agreed on was that they didn’t know what Brown would be like as leader.
It would be interesting to ask a similar question with Charlie Kennedy incharge of the Lib Dems. I bet he’d be giving Cameron a run for his money but it would be an illusion.
Meanwhile another Labour scandal reported…the resemblence of this era to the fag-end of the Major premiership becomes ever more compelling…
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article1530536.ece
[15] Well, I hope you’re right, David - low turn-out benefits nobody.
One point I haven’t seen discussed (tho’ I don’t read all that;s posted here these days) is whether Brown will be as relaxed as Blair about winning key divisions on Tory votes. I suspect Blair quite liked it now and again - it suggests he’s governing above party, but Brown comes across as more tribal.
12: ‘If I remember Labours lead then was into the 20’s and 30’s.’
Which was the product of naff polling, Black Wednesday and an imploding party making comparison silly.
If I was a Labour MP with a smallish majority I would be very worried that the ‘great white hope’ of the Labour Party is doing worse than Blair in the polls.
As an aside Vayker@ 3. The Indy makes the point about the development of ’skunk’, and the increases in the active ingredient within.
There is an argument to say that the problem is for cannabis the lack of proper legalisation, which would give a framework for control of the substances marketed and protection for those who use it due to quality controls, weights and measures (THC content, etc.).
Cannabis users are a group who are simply not going to go away, and perhaps they should be viewed as citizens who need protection, rather than this policy of a strange grey zone of ‘a blind eye’ which merely encourages the entry into the market of big time drugs gangs to operate with less fear who are growing ever stronger marijuana, but without the need to uphold any standards.
16. Roger Hugger. After reading my posts for so long I’m pleased that you’ve finally plucked up the courage to start posting yourself!
Mr Smithson, you make a big play of the “Gordon deficit.” B ut two things how much is due to Gordon or Dave’s names. If Dave and Tone were mentioned would “Cameron’s Tories” get a boost as well. I bet they would. Second, where is the Knight in shining arnour for them. Ok they decide it’s not Gordon, but if not Gordon then who. No poll has shown anyone doing greatly better than him. GB may or may not be a drag on Labour but unless they have a better alternative that the polls say is better then…………
***** JNN/PB Exclusive ***** JNN/PB Exclusive ***** JNN/PB Exclusive
JNN is reporting through PB a fresh ARSE poll of polls comprising MORI, CR, YouGov, Populus and ICM :
Con 39% .. Lab 31% .. LibDem 18.2% .. Others 11.8%
The PISSED Wells/Baxter Index with added SOAMES weighting gives :
Con 310 seats .. Lab 262 .. LibDems 46 .. Others 32 ..
Conservatives 16 seats short of a majority.
…………………………..
Sources :
JNN - Jacobite News Network
ARSE - Anonymous Random Selection of Electors
PISSED - Political Intelligence Seat Selector Election Determinator
22 Not only naff polling - if you look at the huge leads in ICM these are a product of low LD & Nats/others as well as Conservatives; Labour had positioned itself as THE opposition. Cameron hasn’t done that for the Tories, LDs weaker than 2005 but Others are polling strongly.
Around 4-5 million people who vote in next election will either have been too young or would have entered the UK since 97. Around the same figure will have died or emigrated - that’s quite a churn. I get impression that most of these new voters are less identified with the big two parties. I need to check the age breakdowns but I think both Labour and Conservatives will have a struggle in the future - and if we get further FTTP elections with majorities on barely more third of the voters or a succession of hung parliaments the cries for AV or STV might well become overwhelming.
PS. Do any Conservatives believe that the country will warm to George Osbourne during an election campaign when he will become as visible as Portillo did with Hague? I can’t see it but maybe I’m just prejudiced
OT. French Presidential Polls :
Ifop :
Sarko 26% .. Sego 24% .. Bayrou 22.5% .. LePen 14%
Ipos :
Sarko 29.5% .. Sego 25% .. Bayrou 21% .. LePen 12.5%
Come the next GE, there is everything to play for, (Andrew Rawnsley has a very insightful column today) the polls are favourable to the Conservatives, at the moment, but with 2/3 years to go, only a moron would be making a judgement. The truth is we haven’t been here before, a retiring PM, an in power change of leadership, all other changes have been forced, ill health or de-fenestration, nothing like this. By this time next year, we’ll have a better idea of where we are going, until then its all idle speculation, some speculation more idle than others!!
28 And they warmed to Robin Cook in 97 did they? IMHO the popularity bit is around the leader, the choice around belief in need to change, general thrust of policies and contentment with current government.
27 “and if we get further FTTP elections with majorities on barely more third of the voters or a succession of hung parliaments the cries for AV or STV might well become overwhelming.” - I think AV will still deliver the same kind of results.
OT. The SNP accepts £500K from Brian Souter, he of the Nazarene “gays can be cured” Church.
Souter also gave £1M to keep Scotland in the bigots column in the Section 28 campaign. Money well spent.
http://observer.guardian.co.uk/politics/story/0,,2036655,00.html
Mike, good article, and yes expect some sort of nonsense from Deborah very soon.
Obviously a couple of more polls will be needed to confirm that there has been no electoral damage from the air tax proposals, but so far so good.
Meanwhile the Telegraph has a story about Sir Christopher Evans letter to his shareholders on cash for peerages, more of course on my blog.
Re 11, Innocent, no problem motivating activists here! (Conservatives ones that is)
34
The reason there has been no electoral damage from the ludicrous, air tax proposals, is because we aren’t near an election yet. If the Tories go into the next GE with anything like the tax on flights they are proposing, it will cost them dear. Put those proposals in your manifesto, watch the votes melt away quicker than the ice-caps.
30. The only comparable situation was the 1955 handover from Churchill to Eden. Everyone knew it was coming; that Churchill wouldn’t lead the Conservatives into another election and that Eden would take over. There were also a lot of people who admired the way Eden had performed as Foreign Secretary but had doubts about him as leader and PM.
But there the (quite close) similarities end. That was at the end of a parliament; this is half way through. There the retiring PM was revered as a wartime leader (though his pre-war domestic record was at best patchy), retiring at the end of a long and ultimately justified career. Here, Blair’s still in his fifties and his reputation took a knock it will never recover from due to his Iraq War policy. I could go on.
28 - Perhaps Woger will have an agenda item at his next “straw in the wind lunch” about the electoral delights of Patricia Hewitt (she is very very posh, so Woger probably likes her), Margaret Hodge (she has lots and lots of inherited wealth and is married to a Knighted Judge, so that makes her OK with Woger and his “straws”).Harman is posh (but as Woger commented once, married to an oik)so she must be out. Now we know Prescott is going, but he has been a major player, then we get to the future Balls (those blinking eyes), Dawn Primarolo, Tom Watson and if the lunch party hasnt thrown up Sion Simon. Yes, Woger a great crowd and full of vote grabbing charisma.
What was it like on the Ceausescu’s balcony on that December?
28: ‘Do any Conservatives believe that the country will warm to George Osbourne during an election campaign’
I doubt it.
Perhaps he’ll be ‘promoted’ to party chairman or something like that.
Re 36, Coldstone, I don’t see why we still managed to win an election with the fuel tax escalator which had a similar aim.
37
That situation was hardly comparable, Eden also had major health problems, a botched operation etc.
40
You were already in power, and the opposition had not got its act together. Cameron is still an unknown, that is an advantage, this far from the election, as we near, then doubts will be raised, the Tories will not be able to risk a single hostage to fortune. The air taxes could become a major issue, also such things as 90 mile flights by politicians, even if offset, could be seen as hypocrisy: don’t you think?
Re 41, Coldstone and then of course *cough* Suez.
43
Suez was the straw that broke the camel’s back, but the comparison with Iraq, could be, change the leader and 18 months later, win a landslide victory!!
11. Why on earth is he not your Party President. no heavy workload just a licenced spokesman at large for your Party. All hatchets buried etc. I mean it has to be obvious doesn’t it.
41. That’s true, but not really related to your original point which was about changes of PM flagged up in advance. While Churchill wasn’t foolish enough to give a timescale as Blair has, it was still known that the 1951 election would be his last as party leader.
Besides, I did say there were plenty of differences - the health of the incoming PM is one; another is that Eden was clearly of the ‘next generation’ - Churchill was the last survivor of those who came out of the events of 1922 (though he wasn’t directly involved in it); Eden was 23 years his junior. By contrast Brown is of the same political and physical generation (actually, he’s 2 years older than Blair).
Shalom. I’m still out here in Israel which has so much politics of its own I’ve almost given up on the British stuff, for now…
But two things. 1. Even out here Blair is regarded as a vain and deceitful idiot. The venom seems surprising - it was to me - until you ask about Iraq. Because it is Iraq that makes Israelis - Jews and Arabs - revile Blair and Labour.
They think Iraq is a monstrous moral catastrophe, conducted by liars (i.e. Blair) and incompetents (i.e. Bush). They think it has made the Middle East less safe, especially Israel. This is quite an achievement, when one of the reasons we fought Iraq was to protect Israel.
Well done Tone. Well done Labour Friends of Israel.
2. Cameron’s air tax proposals (only just caught up with them) are stupid, myopic, excessive and will hurt poor people. Forget it Dave, and forget it very quickly. People love flying, they love cheap travel, and they wil savagely punish any politician that tries to stop it. And I agree with the people. There has to be a better way to cut carbon than destroying one of the greatest blessings - worldwide travel for everyone - that modernity has given us.
Moreover, even if you do impose these taxes, other countries won’t. Vastly bigger states like India, China etc are increasing air travel - there are new short haul Easyjet type airlines appearing in Asia every day. So the Brits would be the ones only left at home, shivering in the drizzle, and the benefit to the environment would be zilch.
Good idea Dave. Not.
Ladbrokes,affectionately known as “the magic sign ” are only offering 7/1 against David Miliband succeeding Tony Blair.
Do they know something that we don’t?
If Gordon Brown was “home and hosed” to take over at No 10 surely his price should be closer to 1/20 rather that 1/10 or have I woken up too early this morning ?
Gordon Brown 1/10
David Miliband 7/1
Food for thought over the Sunday roast.
Can David Miliband find 44 backers ?
28 - did they “warm” to Gordon Brown!?
42. I knew you would raise that, a bit desprate don’t you think? That is not going to change any votes at all, a business flight is a business flight!
If the Environmental Airline tax was to be implemented, then he would be surcharged on this. The tories could point the finger at the Labour party, when they incomptently mismanaged votes in the commons over the last few years. Mr Brown flew out to Isreal and then flew back due to the government suffering a rebillion. What a waste! I bet he did not offset that as Blair does not offset his holidays that tend to include a 1 day meeting so the taxpayer picks up the bill!!!
I think Labour have picked a boomerang again, maybe this has GB’s fingerprints on it again?
Re 44, Coldstone, interesting point, but we got out of Suez as fast as we went in, not so in Iraq so there the comparison ends.
49. yes. During the 2005 GE he was a vote winner for Labour. Now things can have changed, but in the past he has helped the party elecorally.
52. Yes i rather got the impression at that time it was a duel mandate of Blair / Brown to be fair!
53. That will be a hotstage to fortune in 6 months time from me!!!
OT Have Labour had their spring conference yet I don’t remember there being one?
The press are starting to count up Cameron’s unnecessary flights. Apparently a 94 mile one on a private jet this year. I suspect the rope that will finally hang Cameron will be from one publicity stunt too many. The press love nothing to deflate a hypocrite. Bizarrely I think the story was in the Telegraph.
31. Ted. I agree that personalities are overrated in winning elections-even the party leader-but Osbourne uniquely reminds people like me why we never have voted Tory. Cameron can blur the memory. I think the Tory history is still of of Labour’s greatest selling points.
Jack at 33. Souter is an interesting case. Anywhere else in the country he would be a disastrous endorsement but Scotland still has some pretty traditional voters!!
I’m surprised and pleased that you have found that reaction in Israel Sean. It seems to be the same thinking as in Lebanon. My relatives in Israel tell a different story but they are from a particularly reactionary community.
52 - I dont agree. They may have respected him but I very much doubt anyone warmed to him. The key effect was Blair, just as for the Conservatives it is Cameron. The Shadow Chancellor needs to be trusted at most.
55. noisy summer. They cancelled the spring conference. Instead they had some events around the country
56 - Roger what does it matter if George Osbourne reminds people like you why they never vote Tory?
I don’t think individuals with a pathological hatred of the Tory party are one of the key demographics for the next election.
57. well, if so, they probably never warmed to your beloved Maggie
OT. News that Alastair Matlock has already left for his Spring break in Perthshire cannot as yet be confirmed :
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/tayside_and_central/6461799.stm
56. I am in Tel Aviv, so you could argue the Jews I am meeting are more likely to be leftwing and secular…. but still. Last night I had dinner with a guy who said he was still a passionate Zionist, and when he was younger he was to the right of Meir Kahane! But even he felt that Iraq was just cataclysmic - not least because it has strengthened and enboldened Iran, who everyone here sees as the real enemy.
I also got the same reactions when I was travelling across the Negev - disdain for Bush and Blair, despair at the Iraq disaster. Everyone of course is pleased that Saddam is gone - but they fear that what follows will be worse for the Iraqis, worse for the Middle East, and definitely worse for Israel.
I’m off to Jerusalem now, so who knows. Maybe I’ll meet the Hassidim Branch of the Tony Blair Fan Club. But I doubt it.
56 - Roger, people like you aren’t going to vote Conservative anyway
Roger, a bit of wishful thinking by the Labour party on the airline principle. I think there is at least a 50% chance that it is may actually help Cameron as it gives him further exposure.
Labour are playing a daft game here, they have led the way in tarnishing politicians across the spectrum including themselves in the last 14 years. They are going to plunge, the whole system even further down a large hole.
If Cameron becomes Prime Minister and he was on political party business, then the tory party would have to pay for the extra flying. What is hypercitical about that? It seems a responsible thing to do, Cameron is ahead of the field in carbon offsetting already.
56 Roger. Re Souter … by your cashpoint friends ye shall be known !!
60 - three elections says they did!!
38 - “Patricia Hewitt (she is very very posh)” - she may be posh - the daughter of Sir Lenox Hewitt a leading public servant (civil servant) in the Australian Prime Minister’s Office and later chairman of Qantas - but she’s also Australian, so she can’t be that posh.
58. Yes it was cancelled due to the Labour party being technically insolvant! This was due to the ongoing sleaze inquiry into Labour fund raising from alledgedly selling peerages driving any potential buyers of honours away.
No intelegent person would want to be touched by the labour party at the moment as you would be covered in the same shit!
66. No, winning elections don’t mean getting warmed to someone. There’re other factors that can produce elections wins…trust, respect, being strong, being able to take decisions under pressure….all characteristics I would associate with Maggie more than getting warmed to her.
46. What events in 1922, the overthrow of Lloyd George you mean.
BTW Any news on May’s elections.
69 - the point is that both Maggie and Blair have devoted fans who love them. But they were both divisive figures. People grudgingly respected Brown in the past (though less so now) as a safe pair of hands they could trust etc.
Maggie still inspire massive affection in many people.
59. Max. I probably phrased it badly. What I was trying to say is that Cameron is going to great lengths to persuade people that the Tory Party has changed and it is now born again in his image. And he has had a fair bit of success! But in my opinion the lie is in his choice of bag carrier. No one could see Osbourne as anything other than your typical ‘Tory Boy’. A breed this country decisively rejected 1997 and hoped it would never see in politics again.
69. You missed the most important one - the alternative / opposition!
Maggie was lucky enough to have a lunetic leftwing Labour party to rival her. If Labour had not imploded and been sensible, they could well have defeated her!
“Maggie still inspire massive affection in many people.”
What a confession. ooer missus.
71. well, the original point was getting warmed to somneone, not having “devoted fans who love them” (what is this? X Factor?)
“Maggie still inspire massive affection in many people.”
Tony Benn also inspire massive affection in many people (now that he’s old)!
72. What is Blair if he is not a ‘tory boy’(Even if he is Labour leader)!!!
I cannot believe that the Labour party are going down this road again! Blair has not even left office yet!
Roger, i will let you into a secret - most members of Labour cabinets or Shadow Cabinets have had far more priveleged backgrounds than either you or I!!!
I mean that leftwing proleterian Tony Benn comes to mind straight away as having a deprived and working class existence! Typical Labour more interested in the past than the future!!!
73. Labour’s descent into leftwing lunacy was well under way by the mid-1970s, with massive infiltration of the party by communists of one stripe or another. It was Labour’s shift to the left that allowed Thatcher to emerge and forge a new, more aggressive Toryism in the 1970s and 1980s - so she was not ‘lucky’ to have a loony left opponent, she was in fact the direct product of Labour’s leftward lurch.
67 - quite right. It is not possible for an Australian to be posh; rich yes, posh no. However, whether she’s posh or not is the least of her problems.
However I think Maggie’s handbag was a vote winner
73. Tory’s descent into rightwing lunacy was well under way by the mid-1980s, with massive infiltration of the party by liberatians, laissez-faire capitalists and europhobes of one stripe or another. It was the Tory’s shift to the right that allowed Blair to emerge and forge a new, more aggressive new Laborism in the 1990s and 2000s - so he was not ‘lucky’ to have a loony right opponent, he was in fact the direct product of Tory’s rightward lurch.
could not resist
The breed referred to in post 72 is the “Masters of the Universe” breed not the “Born to Rule” breed which some believe Osbourne has a bit of as well.
“Roger, i will let you into a secret - most members of Labour cabinets or Shadow Cabinets have had far more priveleged backgrounds than either you or I!!!”
It’s not background Martin it’s attitude!
Perhaps it can be stated- a news story will break the regarding past homosexual conduct of one of the candidates for the leadership. This is precisely what happened to Portillo
78. True but Labour was not against renual of Polarise or looking at getting Trident in the 70’s. Labour introduced monetarism to this country in 1976 (Callaghan’s “candour” speech).
It was only once Foot became leader (1980) that Labour become completly unelectable introducing new voting rules for leadership elections, becoming uniliteralist, wanting to nationalise the “commanding heights” of the ecomomy, etc - etc. 1983 - manefesto was after all called the longest sucide note in history!
If Healey had won i don’t think Labour would have been so - unelectable. You are right to say the country had moved towards “Thatcherism” but maybe by not as much if they had the choice!
Vayker: Agree with Paul Lloyd - If the problem is the strength of cannabis “skunk” then the answer is to regulate the strength and force it to be lower. The only reason for the increasing strength is because it can be sold at a higher price and is easy to grow under indoor hydroponic lights - both of which are driven by the illegality.
Noone would say that the answer to abuse of vodka was to ban beer. Well, noone would these days, but funnily enough they did exactly that back when prohibition of alcohol was introduced. Strange how people never learn…
83.” news story will break the regarding past homosexual conduct of one of the candidates for the leadership”
yes, we can reveal that Chris Bryant will stand for leader…join the Chris4Leader campaign!
83. Presumably a rehash of the comment moderated earlier….
Why don’t you go and offer to drive one of Brian Souter’s coaches Wallace? You seem to have similar prejudices.
83 Wallace. Yawn alert …….. Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
87. Intriguing. But these insinuations have been around for a long time. Remember Sue Lawley? Not sure they would have much effect now, unless there was some solid and lurid proof to go with.
Just waiting for disgusted from Brighton to tell us why these polls are invalid.
Wrong polling companies used,sample size too big / too small (change to suit),margin of error,current death rate not taken into account so the Tory lead is distorted,survey was done by phone or internet (change to suit),no allowances made for first time voters supporting the Lib Dems, Lib Dems recently had a Parish councillor elected in Shipton under Wychwood so both polls are completely against the trend.
90. The same was true about Portillo of course…the allegations had been around for years, so long that many people had discounted them. Then all of a sudden…
82. I don’t think Osbourne has an attitude.
In actual fact i know for certain that he kindly wrote to someone when they were out of work who was not a constitient with a signed letter on a theoretical issue. How do i know - i have the letter at home! It was a good motivation getting a letter from someone infliential when you are down on your luck(I said i was out of work!).
So i think whilst your entitled to your views i think they are a bit wide of the mark!
81. I did not like some of the tory policies in 2001 or 2005 and neither did the electrate! I would say though that Labour were more unelectable in the 80’s though! Think the polling will back me up on that one!!!
“Just waiting for disgusted from Brighton to tell us why these polls are invalid”
These polls are invalid as we are nowhere near a General Election.
83.
Oh no !
Please don’t tell me that Elton John or George Michael are “right behind” one of the candidates for leadership.
I’m off to bed
91. Haha very good, though I think you mean ‘disgusted of Worthing’.
Everyone in politics knows that ***** went through a gay phase and that it continued after he became an MP.
Doubt very much if it will harm him.
gordon just has brought deborah back. one of her lackies was just on the The Sunday Edition. someone needs to do a proper one page summary on opinion leader and circulate to the media.
it is outragous that they can be seen in the same context as some one like Nick Sparrow.
Can we get away from rehashed rumours first heard 15 years ago?
99. How do you know they were first brought up 15 years ago?
Ever heard the saying about smoke and fire!!!
99. About Kennedy being an alcoholic, you mean?
When Simon Hughes declared his previous homosexuality, the issue was that he had previously denied it. His honesty not his sexuality was called into question. A similar scenario would damage another individual’s aspirations to lead their political party.
Is anybody else of the opinion that Lord Falconer only announced this thing about Huntley to destract attention away from the sleaze allegations in the press?
94
Thanks I forgot that one.
96
Sorry a slight error with my geography.
Hughes got away with it because he is not a homosexual but a bisexual!!! He likes to pot Brown and pink!!!
89 Agreed but did make wonder who would break the allegation? Murdoch’s press - no, Rothermere/Dacre - no, Desmond’s - no, Trinity Mirror - no, Scott Trust - no, O’Reilly or the Barclay Bros? doubtful. Even The Sport seems unlikely. Odd, as they wouldn’t protect Royals, most Cabinet ministers or opposition leaders.
Meanwhile …. I’m off to lunch with Michael Fabricant and David Cameron to discuss the finer aspects of Conservative hair policy …. parting is such sweet sorrow !
Laters.
If the NHS is becoming a problem for Labour then it will play badly for Brown, who is seen as “mr domestic politics” and also spoke to the report (from I can’t remeber who), that essentially provided intellectual underpinning to the current approach as being best value for money.
Regarding Thatcher and warmth a few posts back, those with a misplaced romanticism for the era, should remember who she had to compete with, two geriatrics and (for all his organisation and strategic ability) a wind bag. She was never against anyone as consumate as TB. Which you have to say is bad news for GB. Cameron is more electable than Sunny Jim Micky Foot and Neil K.
105 Martin. Whereas some politicians simply like pot !!
Definately laters ….
Advertising that Labour have doubled the money spent on the NHS is surely bad politics from Osbourne. Very soon the service will be recognized for the excellent service it is at which point people will remember how under recourced it was under the Tories.
I can say from personal experience that it is improving rapidly and the hospital I’m forced to visit is opoening new state of the art wards at a rapid rate. For those using the service (at least at this hospital) I hear nothing but praise. Word of mouth carries these messages far more effectively than the Daily Mail who are not seen to be without an interest.
Cameron flys kite about green taxes - the punters are up in arms about it. It’s the last we hear of it; except that some caring middle classes who do have a view on this issue will have noticed it and maybe have switched toward the Tories.
And you call Tony Blair cynical?
RE: Hidden secrets - Is that what Blair’s joke was about.i.e not having to worry about the wife running off with the bloke next door?
108 “If the NHS is becoming a problem for Labour then it will play badly for Brown, who is seen as “mr domestic politics” and also spoke to the report (from I can’t remeber who), that essentially provided intellectual underpinning to the current approach as being best value for money.”
I think you mean Derek Wanless.
Re91 Mark Senior does not hail from Brighton….or Worthing for that matter.
110. The problem is that there does not seem to be a tangeble improvement. The Tories built new hospitals etc despite what some may say! The thing with health care is it never reaches peoples expectations. In economic terms their wants are greater than supply.
I need a hand operation due to a benign swelling - I am on a 3 month waiting list just to see the consultant - My doctor has said there will be quite a wait after that! So things don’t look as good as some people make out!
110 - well my experience was MRSA, a communal bathroom splattered everywhere with blood that wasn’t cleaned for 16 hours after I raised the issue, near death from overstretched and everchanging nurses not noticing I had pneumonia. Last week the conditions reported for returning soldiers in more than one NHS hospital seemed much closer to my experience than yours. Oh and the hosptial I was treated in has three stars.
Roger,
But in my area the Princess Royal (built in the early 90’s) is being “specialised” which means A&E and all operations have been transfered to Brighton twice as far away!
People just cant see where all this money has gone.
110 - 116. There is a hospital in my area that had a state visit from Blair. The entrance and lobby are spectacular. When he arrived people waiting and in casualty had been pushed out, it was as clean as a pin and Mary Ann Sieghart nearly passed out in her column.
The tiny little problem was the rest of the hospital, dirt, long waits, mixed sex wards, filthy toilets and all the other little extras such as patients waiting in ambulances so they are not booked in to keep up the targets, wheels removed off trolleys so they become beds.
Word of mouth is great, particularly when with a little bit of work you can find out how much is spent on PR consultancy and advertising agency fees as well as extraordinary slaries to the mangers for managing the managers.
People know that vast sums of money are being pushed in but where does it go? Not the piffling amount on drugs that could aleviate Alzheimers in England. However, if you are in Scotland…..
Spin along Woger, as you say the future for you and your little rays of sunshine is Brown - possibly to become, for the rest of us, The Turd Way.
Peter Hain Deputy Leader campaign website launched:
http://www.hain4labour.org/
Some new supporters declared: David Anderson (Blaydon), Ronnie Campbell (Blyth Valley), Mike Hendrick (Preston), Alan Whitehead (Southampton Test), Stephen Hesford (Wirral West).
He now has 33 MPs who publicly declared their support
117 Well I can - I’ve said here several times that people have no perception of what stuff costs. My own and my daughter’s diabetes cost the NHS a bundle - and there are loads of us.
Or the man that has a gadget costing £800 because he snores. I bet Aneirin Bevan never thought of that one
Or the loan to my friend who has revamped his house for his severly disabled daughter and all the specialist care that girl needs.She would have died even 15 years ago.
Then you play that out across the country. And we all take it for granted.
Oh and another thing while I’m on this particular soapbox. My other daughter has broken an arm three times and hurt it badly on a fourth over the priod 1996 - 2004.
On this wholly unreliable statistical survey of one, I can say that the way we were handled in A&E has gone fom beaurocratic and slow to swift and efficient.
120. But cleaning blood and shit off the walls is not so difficult!
Espeacially when they pay cleaners anyway!
Even Doctors moan about the government know and they have doubled their pay!!!
The NHS is not fit for purpose under labour, Labour are lousy at running things! They are serial incomptents!!!
121. Are you being paid to say that?
My experience has been lousy at several A & E’s - you don’t live in sedgefield do you?
The problem A and E faces stems for the lack of good out of hours GP access. People just turn up at A and E, knowing they may need to wait a few hours, but they will get seen.
You even get cases of people who cannot cope with elderly relatives at home taking them to A and E.
It’s not exactly joined up NHS management.
119. ops, it’s 32 MPs. I counted a MEP to get the wrong figure
The only time I have had occasion to use the Royal Surrey A&E it was excellent. It is also, of course, under threat of closure.
The fact that there are no labour votes here wouldn’t be a factor would it? What was it about those ‘hotspots’?
http://campaigns.libdems.org.uk/guildfordnhs
http://www.guildfordconservatives.com/index.php?sectionid=3&pagenumber=381
I doubt if anyone bar sufferers of Munchausen syndrome actually enjoy going to A+E
123 Day that is a disreputable thing to say.
Is it so uncomfortable for you that someone is treated well by the NHS, that you have to assume money has changed hands.
The problem in A&E in 1996 was that competant medical professionals were doing admin tasks (often more than once)that could be done by admin staff. By 2004 they had produced a fast track process. It was organisation rather than money.
My own experience of the NHS has been pretty good recently. A couple of years back, I didn’t mind waiting for my op for a few months, painful though ingrowing toenails can be.
Health care for my children, and my ageing father has also been excellent in recent years. But I understand that there are some dreadful exceptions.
Just think, had we all voted Tory in 2005, we would already have “cleaner hospitals”. On the downside, Howard would probably have brought in ID cards already.
Completely O/T but what do people think about Richmond Park next time after Zac Goldsmith’s selection.
Way O/T - I spent a couple of days at a secondary school this last week and was amazed at the facilities. There certainly has been money going into education. My own memories of school, an ailing state grammar, were of peeling paint, leaky roofs, broken windows, classrooms in temporary huts (built 1945), an outdoor swimming pool with a huge crack in the bottom to let the dirt in…
New Labour have done something…
130 - I think a lesser MP than Susan Kramer would be beaten by Zac. Kramer, though, I think will see him off. But I wouldn’t bet my shirt on it.
132 - it may be that Zac could alienate some traditional Tories and UKIP could stand on a “global warming is not man-made” ticket.
128 & 129 - my experience is that A&E was quick and efficient in the late 60’s; more cottage hospitals, local A&E departments. First few times I went to A&E was seen within 20 minutes to half hour. Decline in 70’s and onwards as NHS was re-oganised, bigger was better. Probably good clinical reasons but it meant more people going to fewer A&E departments so large numbers and not enough staff to triage or do the admin.
This seems to have been recognised with announcements on beefed up GP practices, local clinics etc but the implementation of the ideas seems flawed. These things suffer first because of budget management. Our local cottage hospital (buit by the Grosvenors and probably still supported by their charity) now does non-urgent X rays, arrive on time, seen at your appointment time. Also does care of elderly and support to people with illnesses like diabetes.
There seems to be a one size fits all centralised view - that NHS must be same everywhere - it would be good if we had a variety of solutions and areas could learn from what worked rather than be told from centre what the latest consultants report said to do. Choice isn’t just about patients selecting which hospital it’s about a variety of provider models. For all that Blair is blamed for he seems to get that.
132. I haven’t heard anything great about her. She’s no Norman Lamb. All past politico-celeb candidates Bell to Galloway have been successful recently. The voters like a bit of glamour. I think the odds are slightly against her.
133. Traditional Tories want this seat back more. UKIP, irrelevant if ZC brings across those “Liberal Tories” who deserted in the 90’s.
130 - I think although Zac Goldsmith is an interesting figure who worry some hardcore Tories this will be vastly offset by his high profile and personal resources that will bring personal votes and invigorate the local constituency party.
I think he will win.
131 - I’ve stood in on a dirt floor in a classroom with shared books and only a blackboard, with a thatched roof and no windows and watched/listened to poverty stricken kids eager to learn, personally disciplined, way ahead (in primary) of their UK equivalents. Yes, its fantastic to have the facilities, but what seems to be missing in too many schools is the education. Why do so many West Indians send their children to poorer facilities in the West Indies? Education.
Cameron’s Bin’s-Laden - with non-recyclables!
What do the team think as to where the polls will go on CallmeDave when his hypocricy on flights gets out and is added to the trainer-wagon episode with his cycling PR stunt? Equally, the heat camera recently turned on Zac Goldsmith’s house shows he is not an ecologist at all - just someone who has picked up a trendy cause and has money (literally) to burn.
Its official - Blair will resign leadership and Premiership together through a deferred resignation, remaining ‘acting leader’ until the changeover. ‘Week 1. Mr Blair announces his resignation as party leader, and consequently, as prime minister.’
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/politics/6457597.stm
Blair states will attend EU conference on 26th June as PM. ‘He plans to attend a European Union summit in Brussels on June 21-22 as prime minister’ - Telegraph 16th March
Requirment for a special conference held at weekend for chanegover makes changeover date July 5th. ‘Brown kissing the Queen’s hand (or whatever they actually do) on July 5′.
Source http://politics.guardian.co.uk/columnist/story/0,,2031711,00.html
138 - Nobody will care. Environmental “hypocrisy” stories are always flimsy and all they do is associate the people involved with the causes they are attacking them over. Everyone knows from their own lives that it isn’t easy being green all the time.
Re 110, Roger “Advertising that Labour have doubled the money spent on the NHS is surely bad politics from Osbourne. Very soon the service will be recognized for the excellent service it is at which point people will remember how under resourced it was under the Tories.”
Forgive me for pointing this out Roger, but up and down the land we have many people now experiencing delays in operations because there is no money for them, and on top of that ward and hospital closures. So peoples personal experience is getting worse. When you add that to the amount of money spent and the number of reorganisations etc. then frankly it will be a nightmare for Labour. Doubly so because they seem to have lost one of their key areas of confidence with the electorate.
138 - No doubt it will lead to a surge in Labour/Lib Dem/UKIP support and Edward Leigh taking over control of the Tory party.
I don’t know how many times Dave’s demise has been predicted on this site (virtually from the moment he took over) and there is an obvious frustration in some quarters that it just isn’t happening.
Re 117, Ah John Gale, you hail from my area!
Drop me an email, (see my blog for address: http://aconservatives.blogspot.com/ )
Re 118, Pot and kettle, could you drop me more details in an email please?
137 - The fact remains that you can have all the facilities you want but, if you can’t attract the right calibre of person to be a teacher, then education will be poor. Many schools are destined to be glossy shells of learning because the money spent on the visible has not been carried through to the more important things that you cannot see. Too many will not teach because of lack of discipline, an over prescriptive system and better rewards elsewhere. You get a nice office and a laptop? So what.
A decent government would have started with the teachers not the facilities.
I earlier heard Peter Kellner spouting the usual cr*p about “Cameron should be 15% ahead if he wants to be sure of winning the next election”. Has he not learned anything from polling adjustments over the last 10 years? He was trying to portray the usual doom and gloom arguments etc. This was followed by a piece from Brighton on people who wont yet vote Tory because they are not convinced etc! Typical BBC!! I would love to have brought in some of the people I have met on doorsteps recently who have switched to Conservative after years of voting Labour and Lib Dem.
148. “Everyone knows from their own lives that it isn’t easy being green all the time.”
Yeah, but we’re not all nauseating vicars preaching to people while we do the complete opposite.
The Independent’s public flip-flop on skunk today reminds me, hw strange it is how Cameron hasn’t yet come out with anything hard-hitting on the Fairy Snow problem!
146 Are YouGov still the Tory Party’s pollsters. I thought Howard axed them after the Ides of IDS. Who does Lab/Con/lib DEm polling for each party now.
146 - Amazing that the BBC never mention that Mrs Kellner is a Government Minister. Rather like the never ending series of interviews with the awful Fiona Miller always avoids the fact that were she not Campbell’s partner she would be totally and rightly ignored.
Leadership Election
Allegation of ‘gay mafia’ at heart of Labour reported in media.