Observer story prompts leadership betting moves
March 25th, 2007-
Miliband tightens and Brown eases after reports of Blair’s backing
This is the front page of the Observer this morning which has led to big changes in the Labour leadership betting.
Tony Blair, according to the paper, is telling allies that if the environment secretary stands against Brown then “he would win”. According to an unnamed minister Blair said of Miliband “he really has got to want it… He really has to go for it.”
The news comes on the same day that the BrandIndex data for the past week shows that Gordon Brown has now replaced Tony Blair as the “most unpopular politician” in the country.
This reinforces yesterdays Populus poll in the Times and Friday’s YouGov survey for the Telegraph about how poorly the chancellor is currently being regarded by voters.
In another move Jack Straw has announced that he will be the campaign manager for Brown’s leadership bid. A week or so ago Straw himself was being tipped as a possible challenger.
So where’s this going to all end? That’s hard to say but if Blair is really giving Miliband the backing that he is reported to be doing then that has to be taken seriously.
For the PM has one massive ace up his sleeve - it will be his statement that triggers the contest and he controls the time-table.
What Gordon needs now is some good poll news and we still await the March IPSOS-MORI and Communicate Research surveys. These should be out during the week.
Mike Smithson
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Jack Straw 1.02 to be next Chancellor on Betfair. Blimey.
1 — ah, someone has just put up some 2s (even money).
Looking at the details, the lowest price actually traded in this not very liquid market was 3.3. Effectively, Straw was backed off the boards.
Erm, the pb.com clock needs to go forward an hour.
WA Elections:
A rough translation of Vaughan Roderick’s latest column from BBC Cymru:
There are interesting whispers of unexpected changes similar to Islwyn & Rhondda in 1999 and Ceredigion in 2005. In this context there are four constituency names which are referred to increasingly often. These seats are Delyn, Swansea West, Ynys Mon & Montgomeryshire.
In the case of Delyn this is a simple argument. This seat will follow British voting patterns. If the opinion polls are true then the Tories will snatch this one. It wouldn’t be impossible for them to take this seat while missing their target in Clwyd West due to local factors.
The situation in Swansea West is relatively simple. This seat was won by Labour with less than half the vote. If the anti-labour vote builds behind one candidate then Andrew Davies looks shaky. According to whispers this is happening with Plaid looking likely to benefit.
The decision of Peter Rodgers to stand as an independent candidate will stir the waters in Ynys Mon. Ieaun Wyn Jones beat Peter Rodgers on this front before, but according to some, the possibility to have Rodgers in the constituency and Wigley on the list will be a temptation to the people of the island.
In Montgomeryshire, the visit of Charles Kennedy to the constituency this week and the decision of the LDs to launch their national manifesto in Machynlleth speaks volumes. It appears that everyone in the party fears that Lembits Opik’s antics have done more harm to the party than they will admit.
Hm I wish IG had a leader betting, I don’t want to have to open another account…!
The move on Straw makes lot of sense and will no doubt please a lot of punters on pbc who saw and acted on the political logic of him being Brown’s next chancellor some time ago. Indeed, I wouldn’t be at all surprised if the money put up at evens wasn’t a peebee closing down their position after backing him when still in double figures.
The interesting thing on the leadership, which no-one has yet commented on are the odds on Reid, which have been shrinking like a snowman in the Spring sunshine. Presumably the thought process is that Brown is now badly damaged, Miliband is still too young and inexperienced and Blair is still going to go. Can’t see it personally, but good luck if you got in at the peak. I really can’t see Reid getting near the votes he’d need, especially in parliament.
So where are we going? Well the 1.27 for Brown is beginning to look close to what I’d believe to be the ‘real’ odds. If the election’s this year, he’s still favourite - and by some way. But Tony’s not made a habit of stepping aside for Brown and could yet find a way of staying on ‘in the interests of the party (and implicitly, the country)’. That said, another round of cash-for-peerages and the May elections could finish Blair off anyway.
More free money on Brown. Did any one see Miliband shaking his head when Cameron in the budget said that Miliband was near the exit planning to run.
just testing the clock
6 I’m inclined to agree, Icarus.
I’m not sure who is briefing against Brown or why but in the end it is nigh on impossible to see him being beaten in a Leadership election. Miliband would, IMO, be crazy to run. He’d be jeopardising his career with very slim prospects of success.
Ah well, looks like I’ll be picking up more free money today. Didn’t have much else to do anyway.
& again
& again i think
The Observer story is more likely to be wishful thinking on that part of No10 realising they are going to have to go out and get a real job for the first time in 15 years and desperate for ABG in the hope they can cling on for another few years…
One of the best selling point for Miliband’s supporters so far was that he would be a break from the past (actually the present). Can entering the race as the Blairite favoured candidate (so the past/present depending where you look at) undermine that point?
It can depend on how the leadership campaign would develop, but he can risk to represent the continuation
Once again Blair reminds us that he is the consumnate politician and that he has nearly all the aces to play. Maybe Mike is right after all, and it might not be Brown. Still have trouble seeing it, but the Blairite’s invitation (desperate plea?) to Milliband couldn’t be clearer, could it? Think I’ll have to take a position rather belatedly on the unshaven one, hope there’s something left.
Bet the mood in No11 is a happy one this morning! Presumably this is why Straw’s letter was released late last night, to offset the Milliband story today. Certainly the BBC are leading on the Straw angle with Milliband buried in the detail of the story. Pesonally I’d have thought Milliband the more significant of the two pieces.
I did chuckle over the double-speak in Straw’s letter to MPs:
“The leadership campaign will not be launched until the prime minister sets out the plans for his departure at a time of his own choosing.”
Which meant - ‘We’re not going to try a coup again like we did last year. At least not publicly, anyway.’
“Over the coming weeks I will be assembling a team and conducting preparatory work. ”
Which meant ‘But just in case that basta*d Blair think’s he’s going to stiff us by staying on or backing someone else in the light of Browns relentlessly disasterous poll ratings, then despite what we just said, we’re going to start the campaign now. But don’t worry it’s only “preparatory” work - and it starts tomorrow, and is focussed on burying Milliband in a “preparatory” way’
re 8. Everybody is in a state of denial about the opinion polls which underline the fact that Brand Brown is contaminated. There’s almost nothing he can do to recover the situation. Just look at the budget reaction - people simply don’t believe him.
If GB continues to look like an electoral liability, which it does at the moment, then the Buggins turn case on which Brown’s campaign rests is hard to sustain. Mind you - I’m not laying Brown at these price but I got on yesterday with some of my BrandIndex profits.
12. Rory Bremner has just described Miliband as a ‘Mini-Me’ version of Blair.
14. Mike, it’s not just the Brown brand which is contaminated; it’s the New Labour brand. Blair-Brown is new Labour, along with the lesser lights - of whom Miliband is most definately one, having been there just about at Genesis, joining the team when still in opposition.
Trying to get Betfair to open a market on whether the next election will be conducted under a different electoral system…
15 - possibly true in theory but your average member of the public, who couldn’t care less about such a westminster village charge, wouldn’t be bothered about that. it would seem like a clean break from the past. not that i’m saying it would be an electoral success.
14 Mike - one of the interesting features of this election is that Brown the polls are being discounted so assiduously by Labour.
In any “normal” election there is a relationship between the polls and the betting price (at least an association, if not a direct correlation). In this case the polls seem to have zero effect on the betting prices (and candidates’ standing), from what I can see.
I guess this is because there is such a strong sentiment of “It’s Brown’s turn after all these years” and the absence of a credible challenger with better poll ratings. Despite the current ratings I just can’t see anyone else beating him. The ratings have been so awful for so long, that surely we would have seen an effect on the race by now, if it was going to build?
The internal civil war that will be unleashed should Brown be beaten, coupled with the distinct unattractiveness of Labour’s electoral prospects (ref Major’s 4th term should they win) is enough to put off any credible challenger. They’re far more likely to bide their time for a couple more years and run when Brown loses the next GE.
should read “the Brown polls” in first line - doh.
O/T
Anyone other poster think that Tony might link up with Mr Bush to invade Iran,particularly in view of the BBC’s choice of words.
Sad to say but an invasion involving the U.K. might boost Labour’s poll ratings
It strikes me as interesting today that BBC News 24 is referring to Iran’s detention of 15 Royal Navy personnel as a “kidnapping”, which seems to me to be extremely loaded language.
Iran contests that the boats involved in the incident were in Iranian waters, while the UK and US state that they were within Iraqi territory, so it appears one word against another. If the Iranians are right (and it is very hard to tell in such disputed territory with complex divisions), then they are well within their legal rights to detain the Royal Navy personnel, so to describe them as “kidnapped” in this rather less-than-clear situation seems unfortunate at best.
Most other news organisations - including their own website - are using diplomatic terms like “seized” or “detained” which, in themselves, do not imply that either side is right. So why is BBC News 24 deliberately choosing to do differently? I hope, not least for the renowned journalistic standards of the Beeb, that this wasn’t a decision taken because “kidnapped” fits better on a headline graphic.
Some of their presentation decisions are already irritating and somewhat questionable, but if presentation is the reason for this decision, then standards really have reached a new - very depressing - low
Telegraph reporting that Blair effectively threatend to resign if interviewed under caution when police spoke to him for the 2nd time after Christmas.
20. Unfortunately it appears many people would take the word of Iranian regime over that of British forces.
22 It is widely known that the Iranians have been conducting a week of naval training exercises in the area. Now, far be it from me to suggest that the Navy were being provocative by having Marines on the border/just inside Iranian waters to see how the Iranians would react to an unplanned incident - discovering true command structures, signals intelligence etc - but it is not beyond the bounds of possibility. Anyway, my thoughts are with our detained troops, who are having an unwelcome adventure.
Remember those buzz words ‘renewal’ and ‘Brown bounce’? It seems like even the loyal aren’t describing the Brown succession with much anticipation at moment, Jack Straw aside.
I’ve long been rubbishing the ‘Brown’s blown it’ posts on here, but things do seem to be moving against him from all sides. Particularly in the week where he should have shone - and in my opinion the Tories messed up but he has been savaged by the press -je looks more like a liability.
So now wonder what the tipping point for another challenger would be - although everyone’s talking Miliband I’m not convinced he’d be any more popular - perhaps we’d need to see a poll showing that he’d cause more people to vote Labour before he becomes a relaistic challenger.
23. What our forces were just sacrificed by their commanders to see how the Iranians would react? OK then..
23. Now we really are in grass knoll territory
If the Iranian thing gets out of hand could a PM in good health resign in the middle of the prolonged crisis?
I think its most likely this could escalate and I think it would be very likely Blair would hang around a while.
Why is no-one talking about Jack Straw as a potential leadership candidate? Very puzzling…
re 21
Good tactic from Blair, Yates couldn’t caution him or there would have been a constitutional crisis of epic proportions, if in the endgame Blair was not charged, but it does make you wonder what Yates has if they wanted to caution Blair. NO 10 of course has denied the story, Well they would would’nt they >>>.
29 - because he’s effectively ruled himself out in return for the Chancellorship. Whether he’s regretting that now or not is another issue. (It is rumoured that he may have personal reasons for not wanting the top job as well).
30. Why would there be a constitutional crisis? The PM resigns. The Labour Party would then be obliged to choose a new leader. The Police investigation continues. You are misusing the term I think.
31. If the ‘personal issues’ are not insurmountable, then given the current situation of a desperate search for a non-Brown candidate his odds seem incredibly generous.
OT. The SNP set 2010 as the year for a independence referendum :
http://www.sundayherald.com/news/heraldnews/display.var.1284323.0.nationalists_earmark_2010_for_referendum_on_independence.php
There is so much anti-Brown feeling coming to the fore. There must be reasons for this - and more than we already know.
Scotsman reports Gordon plans to put himself at the heart of Labour’s campaign in Scotland
http://news.scotsman.com/politics.cfm?id=462002007
High risk I’d of thought if Labour do as badly as forecast.
26 Given that the same thing happened three years ago - with Iranians capturing a group of British troops - you might have thought that the Navy top brass would be aware of the threat and keep our boys away from any areas of the border where there was potential for “confusion” as to who claims what. That they didn’t could at least be viewed by the Iranians as provocative - and the Iranians’ subsequent actions eminently predictable.
Also bear in mind that these “swarming” Iranian fast patrol boats that detained the Marines have given US military planners a major headache in working out strategies to defend against them. Keeping up to date with their tactics is a priority.
Now if you want me to get REALLY grassy knoll….
Ted That must be the best news the SNP have had for some time. It didn’t work well in by elections. There were too many arguments with the Scottish party and egg all over Brown’s face. And if the polls are right this time it will be the whole omelette.
Adam Boulton on Sky seemed genuinely astonished at Julie Kirkbride’s assertion that Brown’s budget had received a bad press. He seemed to think that the Tories were like rabbits caught in his headlights.
35. Yes there is a sense that what is being played out in public with reference to Brown (and other candidates e.g. Straw) is something of a charade, obscuring the real issues and motives.
37. Yes they were kidnapped in Iraqi territory then and have been now. Why should they keep away from border areas, they have an Iraqi gov’t and UN mandate to be there. If they are not released it is most definately an act of war. Blair would have multiple reasons to go for it..
17. Thanks BE. I probably wasn’t being very clear in what I meant re Miliband and New Labour - apologies. It’s not that he’s associated with New Labour as such; as you rightly point out, few people know who he is now, never mind his political biography. What I should have said is that he thinks and acts New Labour. If Labour is going to revive in government then the public needs to see a real change of style; not just new face, same methods, same policies.
Miliband has operated within the Blair-Brown machine (essentially the Blair machine for him), and I don’t think could provide that crucial change that Labour need. The reports that Blair is bigging up Miliband’s prospects reinforce my scepticism that he could pull off the ‘change’ thing. And if he can’t do that, it is worth passing over Brown?
30 - The issue of Blair not being questioned under caution raises several interesting issues. See my thoughts here:
https://www2.blogger.com/comment.g?blogID=30194186&postID=519218865265170327
OT. Meanwhile former Conservative cabinet minister John Patten wants a soup kitchen in the proximity of his £800,000 London pad closed.
Reports that blue rinse death squads are raiding homeless shelters and killing inmates with rubber chicken cannot as yet be verified.
http://scotlandonsunday.scotsman.com/politics.cfm?id=462632007
41 - the issue of those boundaries at the northern end of the Gulf are far from settled, as I understand it. As for “Blair would have multiple reasons to go for it…” - with what? Short of using Trident, what is he going do? March on Tehran? With what troops? With what kit? Get real. It could be the pretext the Bush neocons have been looking for, but even then, Iran is no Iraq. Iraq had been weakened initially by the destruction of land and air forces in the first Gulf War and by a decade of sanctions on re-equipping. Iran in contrast has a massive land Army and some interesting new toys it has acquired from Russia in particular. Try googling “Iran sunburn missile” if you want to get an idea of their capability.
I have little doubt our troops will be released in due course. Unless someone does something stupid in the meantime…
5
Is that like, ‘Miliband is to young and inexperienced’ compared to say, David Cameron?
I see that Hartlepool CLP is re-acting with joy to Mandy’s suggestion that he can return to Hartlepool (their reply is “there’s no vacancy here”)
http://news.independent.co.uk/uk/politics/article2390883.ece
Miliband may be in his forties but he looks like he’s 20 years younger. He might ‘look’ too young and inexperienced. He might appear to be a lightweight. John Reid appears to be a thug. John Denham is the best man for the job. Obviously Blair would not want Denham, like he would want Reid or Miliband. To do well in the next election is it a good idea to have a Blairite?
46. Cameron will have a number of years as leader of the opposition before the next election (as Blair had), leading a party with the responsibilities and profile that brings.
49
How do you know we have years to the next GE? Gordo, (if it is he) could go for a snap GE, claiming he wants his own mandate!!
OT. Another take on TOSS*R - Tories Obscene Soup Scandal Egotism Report.
http://news.independent.co.uk/uk/politics/article2390882.ece
More confirmation that Straw is one of the favourites for Chancellor. I think I wrote on here some time ago that I thought Straw would be the person to run the Chancellor’s leadership campaign too.
This is the key bit:
‘The appointment almost guarantees that Straw, currently leader of the Commons, will be given one of the top cabinet jobs after Brown’s expected takeover as prime minister in the summer.
Straw, who served as both home secretary and foreign secretary under Tony Blair, could be rewarded by being made chancellor of the exchequer or with a return to the Foreign Office.
Straw cannot, however, expect to run a department as powerful as the Treasury has been under Brown. Some of its strategic powers — for example, setting spending priorities — are likely to be transferred to No 10, which will become Brown’s new “super ministry”.
Putting Straw back into one of the senior posts would also lessen Brown’s impending “Scottish problem”, which could have seen politicians from north of the border holding three of the top jobs in government.
John Reid may stay on as home secretary. Alistair Darling, another Scot and a Brown ally, had previously been considered as a leading contender for the chancellor’s job. Hilary Benn, the international development secretary, is considered a candidate for a post such as foreign secretary.’
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article1563908.ece
For those that haven’t got on you can still get 6/1 with willhill.com - the price is live now - TAKE IT (along with the 4/1 they have on Darling)! It’s not often these markets are available at the weekend with Hills to move sharply. Paddy Power have cut Straw to 11/4 second favourite.
Where’s Snowy? I know she takes a great interest in the private lives of our leaders - certainly Dave Cameron’s “druggy” past. And I know she has insider knowledge of the Labour leadership.
Perhaps, therefore, she can shed some light on a curious sentence in a Sunday Times article about the Blairs’ new Bayswater home. Talking of the house’s lavish sun-terrace, the article says:
“It is here that Carole Caplin, a lifestyle adviser, may hope to be welcomed back into the intimacy she once enjoyed with the family”.
What a strange sentence. What on earth can it mean? Snowflake?
Denham would be a good viable alternative. As I put on here last night, Millibland and Benn are nice guys in touchy feely jobs. Nobody hates International Development or the Environment. They’ve never had to take anybody on in this country. It’s a shame, but they have not yet had to prove themselves in a tricky situation.
Denham actually showed some balls to resign over Iraq. Reid has made tough decisions, but unfortunately he is an authoritarian thug - and would never win back Labour votes lost to the LDs. Straw has effectively rules himself out.
Mentions have been made of Thatcher only having been Education Secretary prior to becoming leader. But that is a job where you have to take on a fight. Remember all those grammar schools she shut down! It was a tough decision to follow Labour party education policy!
Cameron too has had to fight to push his neo-liberalism up the totem pole of Toryism.
But when have Benn or Millibland ever had to fight for something, or take somebody on?
Hills have restricted the stake on Straw.
55. Telephone them Yokel
3. I wouldn’t say those seats mentioned are on the same planet as Islwyn and Rhonnda if they fall. I’m surprised Plaid are getting a free run in Swansea West, would have thought the Lib Dems wld be een to build on GE2005. Yns Mon, really would have thought at best Rogers splits the vote with one of the other parties winning. In Mont interesti ng, will Lembit bu under threat if this goes Blue. What other news though. Most crucially are Labour under threat in any of the Valleys heartlands as in 99. Will the Tories take any more Seats in the South.
O/T of political but on-topic of betting: Am I missing something here?
On betfair, there’s £500 available at 6 laying England to reach the Cricket WC final, £25 at 10 for backing them to be runner up, and lots at £15.5 backing them to win.
If I put say £45 on the first bet, £25 on the second, and £16 on the third, am I right in thinking that my winnings would be (£270, £250, £248) respectively, and my profit (£229,£189,£178)
Is this free money or am I missing something?
a short article on a few marginal Holyrood seats
http://news.scotsman.com/politics.cfm?id=462832007
Regardless of what i put above, I do just wonder a bit if Chancellor is where Jack Straw would want to go. Surely he would want Foreign Secretary (he was said to be very disappointed to lose the job), and it might suit Gordon a lot to have him there (such is his inexperience)?
It has been said that Foreign Secretary has almost reduced in status in recent years, because Tony Blair has done the job himself. But by the same token, it is not far-fetched to say that Foreign Sec under Brown could be a MASSIVE job, whereas it will surely be Chancellor that is diminished?
Re:57, could you please avoid using text lingualize, makes it very difficult to understand your point.
Mike, I have to say that the only think worse than electing brown as PM would be not electing him. There would be the biggest sulk in history!
55 Yokel - URGENT - Ring them. I couldn’t get on through the internet but they just gave me £100 at 6/1 over the phone.
58 - and if they get knocked out in the super eights/semifinal?
57 Mr Punter , that report is pure tosh , LibDems have had campaign weekends in Swansea West every weekend for the last 2 months and are continuing them until the election in May . Montgomery is not under any threat whatsoever .
You have to try and distinguish between Plaid and Conservatives talking up their chances and the fact that there is no outside evidence that what they are saying is anything but spin .
60. Foreign Sec. No way. The things he is on the record with recentlymean Brown can’t have him there. As for Chancellor why not, its better than HOme Sec, and any case a question of not what Jack wants but whatr suits Brown, if he is looking for soimeone to keep the seat warm for Ed for a couple of years Jack fits the bill perfectly. As for Foreign Sec, this already clearly marked out for Benn surely.
60. Yes it’s possible, but wouldn’t signify a fresh move forwards with Brown seeks. I think Hilary Benn’s style and approach would help inject a little more of the ethics into foreign policy - something some of us dreamily held dear when first elected. He is the strong favourite for Foreign Secretary in my mind.
66. Snap.
65. I confess Mr Senior I would have been severely surprised if you were not putting up a fight there given it is premier gain opportunity for you in GE09/10. AS for Mont I have repeatedly said I don’t think a Con win is on the cards, but I do think you are a touch complacent to think a reduced majority is not on the cards.
59. Marcia, have they really given up in DW? (since you’re from Dundee, you can witness how much work they’re doing)
59 The SNP make a few gains in the central belt, maybe a bit up on their 99 position. Labour will simply swap constituency seats for top-up seats so I can’t see the SNP being the largest party after the election.
66 - What statement? The stuff about the veil?
I don’t think you should dismiss the possibility that having Straw as For Sec could be what Gordon wants. It depends on the extent to which he really has an interest in Foreign Policy. If he wants to be a PM concentrating mainly on domestic issues then it would suit him to have someone with huge Foreign policy experience who can effectively run the show themselves.
I also think that Straw as For Sec under Brown would be somewhat different to Straw as For. Sec. under Blair. I think that he would be in favour of an ethical foreign policy given a free hand.
51
Let them eat cake!!
72 (con) - also some deal has clearly been done. What Straw wants is not a complete irrelevance.
69 Mr Punter , I am not complacent re Montgomery but quietly confident . The danger for Plaid and Conservatives talking up their prospects is that one or both get decent results and some gains but come nowhere near their wilder forecasts .
64: alex, if England don’t reach the final I make the biggest profit, as the first bet is laying them to reach the final!
OK - whoever takes over as leader, which Cabinet ministers will get the chop? Beckett?
70 - I haven’t seen that much Labour activity.
71 - not so - if they lose seats where they are vastly over represented at consituency level they won’t get seats on the list such as Glasgow, West & Central Scotland. Also depends on the % of vote they get in the end.
Now off campaigning.
76- Have England beaten any test nations in any cricket world cup since 1992?
I just got £100 on Straw with William Hill. What a joy dealing with big firms!!
76 - If you lay a bet at 6 for £45 to reach the final then you lose 225 on that bet if they make it.
So (using your numbers):
England don’t make it: Win £45 lose £41
England come second: Win £225 lose £241
England win: Win £248 Lose £250
79 - Sri Lanka and Zimbabwe in 1999, Pakistan in 2003
78. Marcia, yes, in some areas they won’t pick up list seats if they lose FPTP constituencies (even if their list % is holding up decently according to polls). In Glasgow if they lose Govan to Sturgeon, it’s an overall loss as they’re over-represented anyway. In Central Scotland, if they lose Cumbernauld & Kilsyth and Kilmarnock & Loudoun, they won’t get list seats. They can gain back Canavan’s seat though. So they can end up with just 1 loss in the area.
Anyway the seats mentioned in that piece as seats where SNP is doing well aren’t surprising.
Dundee West (4.3% majority), Kilmarnock & Loudoun (3.9% majority), Cumbernauld & Kilsyth (2.1% majority and SSP polling 7.5% in 2003), Govan (5.8% majority and SSP at 11.2% in 2003)
81: oh yeah, sorry for wasting your time.
It’s a Sunday morning, the fingers are working furiously but the brain is still fast asleep.
77. As I said yesterday, I can see Beckett moving to leader of the House instead of Straw. The woman is tipped to get sacked from years, but she’s always there.
If it’s Gordon as leader, please get rid of Armstrong….
BTW, Just in case anyone has not seen it, more on cash for peerages on my blog:
http://aconservatives.blogspot.com/
85 It’s a crying shame there’s no market on it. That’s a great tip, Andrea.
80. Is that Straw for Chancellor or leader?
63. All done, they took a reasonable bet.
85 - Struck me that best chance for a Gordon bounce if getting rid of Hewitt - Charlie Falconer will also be gone along with Prescott which will bring a further benefit. As long as he doesn’t bring Timms, Red Dawn into high profile jobs, puts Balls somewhere where he doesn’t have to appear on media and keeps Kinnock away from any Government post he might just present enough of a change. Straws used to being the frontman for the PM (his role as Foreign Sectretary) so won’t be a problem as Chancellor; though Osborne will have fun with him. Benn as Foreign Sectretary and the poisened chalice of Home Sectretary to Miliband (a subtle knifing)?
Hills have pulled the next Chancellor mkt now
Some weeks ago on this site I was roundly castigated for suggesting that GB was not absolutely certain to be the next PM. No one now knows how things will pan out, but I wonder what those people (such as PtP) think now.
A bet on prescott as a temporary emergency leader might be a worthwhile investment; after all it is JP who has all the dirt on everyone else, and this gives him all the aces. He also lacks any insight, which is a potential advantage (in an odd sort of way)
re 88. Chancellor. £100 on Straw at 6/1. Plus an insurance bet of £50 on Blair being their after October at 40/1.
And even with that outlay and my Brown lays yesterday I’ve got more than £550 net cash coming in on the week. The BrandIndex buy on Blair proved to be another nice earner.
Am I sticking my neck out ?
Here goes and yes I have put my money where my mouth is
Brown will be the next Prime Minister.
He will call an Election Autumn 2008 and will be returned with around a 30 seat majority.
If there are skeletons in his cupboard they would have been outed by now.
Bye Bye I am off for a liquid lunch now
91 Shame. It was free money for a bit.
Hills strike me as the best bookie for politics. They take decent size bets and respond reasonably to telephone requests. Once they take the market off the internet though, you’ve had it. You won’t get on.
Secretary not sectretary
Must remember to hit only one key when typing.
No serious candidate have put themselves forward for leader other than Brown (I assume he has said he will stand). Straw, and Miliband have actually said they wont stand - Straw is running Gordon’s campaign for goodness sake. Even the Labour Party wouldn’t have Prescott as leader.
It must be Brown unless illness or a bus strikes.
92 Barry - If you want to know what I think now you have only to ask me.
The answer is that I think pretty much the same as I have done for a very long time. Of course, nothing is a certainty so I always try to state the probability in odds, or percentage terms. I rate GB about 90% probable to be next PM. That’s about 1/10 in betting terms.
90 - that sounds about right to me. But I think that before long as Chancellor, Straw would not be facing Osborne. More likely Willetts, or, if we are to believe Rik, David Laws
Tories to get the chop from their current posts before GE - well, there will be some, won’t there? Ozzy is top of my list, also Maude, May (no longer the token woman), Fox (a loose cannon). Also think Letwin will lose interest once policy review is over.
SBS - Once you’ve got rid of that lot the only Tory left is Boris.
93
Mazeltof Mike, you got an excellent price about Jack Straw
Here is what Paddy Power are going,it’s a bloomimg disgrace
Offering for Next Chancellor
Next Chancellor of the Exchequer
Next Chancellor of the Exchequer Next Chancellor of the Exchequer
Singles Only. Others on Request . **Applies to the candidate who becomes the Next Chancellor of the Exchequer after Gordon Brown.
Alistair Darling 7 - 4 Alan Johnson 20 - 1 Patricia Hewitt 25 - 1
Jack Straw 11 - 4 John Reid 20 - 1 Des Browne 25 - 1
Ed Balls 3 - 1 Hilary Benn 20 - 1 Charles Clarke 33 - 1
Stephen Timms 10 - 1 Ruth Kelly 20 - 1 Alan Milburn 40 - 1
David Miliband 10 - 1 John Hutton 20 - 1 John Healey 40 - 1
George Osborne 16 - 1 Peter Hain 25 - 1
101 Brown does split the job and there isn’t a Chancellor after him until Cameron, after our glorious victory in 2009, recreates the post and puts Osborne in it (16-1 pays out).
83. Mentions only one Tory gain.
Re Soup Runs in Westminster - see this:
http://www.westminster.gov.uk/councilgovernmentanddemocracy/councils/pressoffice/news/pr-2858.cfm
Some 65 soup runs are known to operate in Westminster – that’s around one soup run for every two rough sleepers.
…
the vast majority of soup run users are not rough sleepers, with one provider commenting “we’ll feed taxi drivers if they want”.
I know it is counter intuitive, but most of the officials with the well-being of the homeless at heart want to stop the chaos of these soup runs. Noises off in Scotland on Sunday don’t help reach the right answer.
o/t but exactly thirty years ago Jim Callaghan survived a vote of no confidence according to Tall’s Blog, proped up by the Lib(Dems). A govt led by Chancellor turned premier, will never happen again, will it……….
Mr Senior (we have all gone formal today) - Swansea West is beginning to look like one of those seats which behaves differently at GE and WA - The seat is definitely vulnerable to a concerted attack but I personally belive that Plaid & Liberals will split the opposition vote and let Labour escape. Same as in Bridgend only with Conservatives & Liberals this time.
Mr Punter Sir - if you are looking for other possible Plaid gains in the South, they are polling well in Cynon & Caerffili, but I predict the breakthrough will come in Neath.
My tip for a Plaid surprise in the North is in Clwyd West - the Tories are being a bit complacent here, and this could be sneaked from under their noses while they are looking at Delyn…
65 Mr Senior… Pots & Kettles??
You have to try and distinguish between Plaid and Conservatives talking up their chances and the fact that there is no outside evidence that what they are saying is anything but spin
106/107 Penddu , I have not talked up anyone’s chances in any seats even LibDem chances . I have questioned where is the outside impartial evidence for some of the wilder claims for Plaid and Conservative gains and am happy to wait until May to see who is correct in the absence of some published authentic opinion polls which may give us a better clue .
106. Yes I thnk you maybe right on Neath. The look on Peter Hain’s face should be something. Could he ever be vulnerable one day. So you think Swansea West could go Plaid at WA and Lib Dem at GE like Ceredigion. Be highly surprised if PC took Clwyed West, if the Tories don’t take it find it more likely the incumbent will cling on thanks to a split vote. On Lib Dems I am looking at Newport East and Cardiff South for them to spring a surprise. Finally are the Tories in play in Clwyd South and Vale of Clwyd, there were whispers really…………
6. I noticed that as well, did you notice the look in millies eyes? He looked really pised off!!!
Did you see angry Brown telling Cameron to “get lost” - that was a bit before i think! That was funny as well.
Straw to be the next Chancellor then? That is my reading of the “Straw to run Brown Campaign story”. Frankly i think Straw would be barking to be Chancellor - Brown has left a real poison challace - probaby monouvered to do this to qwell any rival!
I saw Johnson on the politics show, much better than Brown he even joked about his arse!!! I would say though that Johnson let himself down at the end after a good bit of guiter struming (Guiter playing to the kids was good - very sunny!!!). He said that he had charisma etc although he was doing this as a ironic joke, think he will have to avoid that in the future.
Still think Johnson is more acceptable than Brown!
105. John Major!
85. If Brown becomes leader Hilary Armstrong will stand down at the next election.
110. Was referring more to the Lib(Dem) propping up of said Govt.
Aha - Well you are probably right there!
I doubt the circumstances will come up again with that in the next 10 years!
111. I am right in thinking her seat is on a 5k or less majority over the Lib Dems and thus on their target list anyway……….
Mandelson really does not want Brown as the next PM. He has twice this week said something about Brown taking over:
“First there was he cannot sack me”
Now a coded reference to Milliband - “younger Labour MPs should decide on a new leader” link -
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/politics/6492417.stm
What ever peoples view of Mandelson, he does not say stuff like this by mistake - he has intent and purpose!
114. No, her seat is a 13,000+ majority (over 34%)
111. Henry, I won’t miss her. Am I the only one who finds her uninspiring (let’s be diplomatic)?
114. No, you’re thinking of Roberta Blackman-Woods in Durham City. Hilary has a huge majority.
106, 108
I think the only thing that we should be able to agree on is that there will be surprises in May, simply because of the lack of opinion polls……
I personally would love to see the look on Peter Hain’s face if Neath were to be lost - well not so much the look as the colour….
112 - surely the Tories would be more likely to prop up Labour in a coalition. There is history there - Iraq, foundation hospitals, education reform, Trident. The Tories prop up Labour half the time already in fact ~:
119 sorry about the ~: - still learning smileys ;(
111. She was a painfully poor Chief Whip, one of the worst. She’s been quite low profile in her current role, I thought it would help rehabilitate her. Ed Miliband seems to be much more high profile.
121. Talking about Chief Whips, what do you think will happen to Mme Dominatrix if GB becomes leader?
118. Will comment on the seats mentioned at 109 perhaps
122. Not sure. She’s not got a big majority (a couple of thousand from memory).
124. yes, she naturally risks to lose her seat. She even has unfavourable boundary changes.
I was thinking in terms of Cabinet position in between a possible GB takeover and the next GE
She’s better than Hilary as Chief Whip (well, you don’t need much to outperform HA) even if her “yellow cards” threat seems to have disappeared
Ed Miliband, Yeah but he comes across as being arrogant, something his Bro does not. If milli become leaders that would cause a problem wouldn’t it if his brother became a minister or cabinet minister! How would you sack them if the need ever arose?
I think milli has another problem - his age - straight into job of PM at 40, even if he last 10 years, which realistically i doubt Labour will win another election, nevermind 2! - what is he going to do after wards at 50 / 51?
If cameron becomes PM it will be 2/3 years down the line plus his party has not been in government for 10 years! So he potentially could do 10 years! To be politically neutral the probability of Cameron becoming PM for 10 years at this place in the political cycle is higher than milliband anyway!
122. ?
119 - From what I’ve read the Welsh Conservatives want to be seen as Welsh rather than fall into the English Party trap (which to some extent Labour are in danger of). So if opportunity arose to to ‘govern for Wales’ it’s worth considering.
Would be strengthened by possible disagreements with Westminster and it would be a joy beyond measure to see Peter Hain’s face when he realised he was Secretary of State without any real influence on Wales - anything he did to stymie the Assembly would backfire.
125. DTI? There’s no law that says Brown has to keep her. He’ll certainly ditch her as Chief Whip and replace her with a fist clunker.
122. Jacqui Smith.
126. If David runs, will Ed back him over Gordon even if he’s a Brownite, right?
129. who do you think will become Chief Whip?
130. Seat and second placed party………
128. Think he was referring to Westminster.
131. Interesting point that! Had not thought of that! I was thinking if David won. What a paradox there! A case of Family or future career there me thinks!!!
129. Possibly Nick B but not a certainty. They’re going to need someone to keep the hard left in check.
132. Redditch, less than 5% over the tories
133. If Ed backs brown, his brother is not happy - If Ed backs david, Brown will have the mother of all grudges?
134. Do you think they’ll manage to keep the hard left in check? McDonnell and Corbyn are hopeless causes for the whips. Lynne Jones and Alan Simpson are retiring, so they can’t do anything to them.
The rest can be at least “contained” though
136. I know both the Milibands and family comes first.
135. Where’s that. In the South increased vulnerability.
138. I don’t think that GB, could really hold a grudge on that score - could he! Certainly, you would have to support your sibling. The interesting thing would be if David won and Ed was a minister and there were problems.
Brothers have worked succesfully together in top government relationships before. Most succesfully the Kennedy’s - they saved the planet from Nuclear Holocaust! But the brother’ parellel in my opinion would end at the example of President Kennedy & his brother - no camelot!!!
Are Labour going to have any seats left after the next election?
140. People may say correctly that the Bay of Pigs preciepted the Cuban Missile crisis but it is my belief that had the Kennedy’s not been in power then war would have ensued!
141. Alex, from some talks here, I’m not sure. Maybe they can hold Bootle
143 - No chance Andrea. It too will revert back to it’s true blue colours it’s just a matter of time.
Starting to get a few more leaflets from parties up here now. Including being handed a leaflet from the Scottish Unionist Party as a parade of 10,000 Orange men and women paraded through Edinburgh yesterday!
143. From who. I am just saying a 5% Labour majority in the South is far more vulnerable than the same 5% in the North.
144. The Scotsman is tipping you in Dumfries. Doing well in other places…….
144. Max, for your joy, I read that SSP is planning to stand in all council wards in the Lothians. I’m sure you’re waiting for Colin Fox and his megaphone
“…As a parade of 10,000 Orange men and women paraded through Edinburgh yesterday!”
Ten thousand people attended an LD rally in Edinburgh yesterday? Wow! Impressive.
I don’t know why all this surprise about TB supporting DM, i mean, i never expected to see TB supporting GB, and that’s exactly what is happening, TB is supporting the person he thinks is the only one than can win against the guy next door. But until now i don’t see why. Is DM more liked than GB? I don’t think so , because not a lot of people know who he is. People will say that he can build a new DM, but so can the opposition do it for him, and i’m sure that will not be good , for GB we already now something about him, so is not so easy for the opposition to build something much different ….
146 - I’m not sure how well the party are doing outwith my own part of the country to be quite honest. But we seem to be doing fairly well across the South of Scotland.
I had assumed we were doing fairly well in Dumfries as we’re putting up quite a large number of council candidates particularly in the rural parts of Dumfriesshire.
I’m not sure why we’re doing better down here compared to the rest of Scotland. If we win Dumfries and hold Galloway & UN and Ayr we’ll have more seats in the South of Scotland than we would have done in 1992 (Ayr was notionally Labour).
148 PtP. Don’t be silly …. it’s these orange men :
http://www.tvwhirl.co.uk/images/tangovote1997.jpg
Despite pb.com headline definitely some good copy for Brown in the Sundays. Excellent cartoon of Cameron in the Observer.
150. Closer to England the stronger the Tory Unionist tendency perhaps……..
151 Oh. Makes a bit more sense now.
153 - Perhaps. Although the SNP do well in Galloway.
I think what’s helped has been a rebuilding of our local goverment base and the fact that Berwickshire, Roxburgh etc, D&G and DCT are our three largest constituency parties in Scotland.
155. That seems to be the pattern in Wales. The closer the English border the stronger the Tory party,
Miliband now 8/1 with Betfair and as short as 4/1 with the bookies.
It is frequently argued here that unless Labour go with Brown it would be a disaster, the biggest sulk in history, civil war etc.
What could be more disastrous than going forward with an unelectable leader? He is damaged goods and Labour need to take a chance on an alternative leader to have any chance of winning the next election. It is not about there being a more popular alternative. It’s about not sleepwalking to inevitable defeat at the next GE.
156. Possibly true but you ignore Preseli-Penfro which is as far fron England as you can get in Wales. Of course, south Pems. is also known as little England beyond Wales so maybe the point holds.
156 - “That seems to be the pattern in Wales. The closer the English border the stronger the Tory party.”
Oh, were it that simple here in Alyn & Deeside!
John Reid is very quiet at the moment. The Home Office is so unpredictable but he’s not had too much flak of late. He seems to have more gaul than any of the others; I think he’d enjoy taking on Brown.
Must also be said that former friends of Reid’s, Frank Field and Peter Kilfoyle have been amongst Brown’s critics and he has allies in Clarke and Milburn. Reid helped to persuade Milburn to come back into the cabinet and when Clarke was asked on QT for an alternative to Brown, Reid was the first person he named (then Johnson - which got a few laughs).
158 & 159. There are always exceptions! Any other constituency news.
Re 160, Frank Booth, “John Reid is very quiet at the moment. The Home Office is so unpredictable but he’s not had too much flak of late.”
That is because getting FOI answers out of them is like pulling teeth!
Further to my comment above, I now firmly believe that if Miliband is brave enough to run he will win. Most of the media would get behind him and the exposure he would receive would allow the Labour electorate to get to know him.
The more the public know Gordon Brown the less they like him and this perception increases by the day.