Did you join the great Jack Straw gamble?
March 26th, 2007-
Sadly William Hill’s 6/1 price is no more
Over the past thirty-six hours dozens of PB users have been putting as much cash as they can on Jack Straw as next Chancellor at what appeared to be the the very generous price of 6/1.
For clearly the leader of the house and the man who has been both home and foreign secretaries under Blair is going to be rewarded with a plum position if and when Brown takes over. For the announcement yesterday that he is to be Brown’s campaign manager is playing a big part in the chancellor’s “foregone conclusion” strategy.
We might all be wrong but surely the one major position that Straw has not held is the one he’ll be offered when all the changes take place.
Whatever this was much better than a 6/1 shot and dozen of PBC punters have been piling on. Alas the price has been changed and now Hills make Straw the 5/2 favourite.
Hills, who have slashed Brown’s leadership odds from 1/12 to 1/20, make Ed Balls and Alistair Darling 4/1 joint second favourite to become the next Chancellor and also offer; 8/1 Des Browne; 10/1 David Miliband; 14/1 Hilary Benn.
Mike Smithson
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Can I claim to be the first to see this? My New Years entry had Jack Straw for Chancellor - I believe that it was unique in that
Pity one can’t lay Miliband as Chancellor at the 10-1 price you quote - now that really would be free money!
Alas no I didn’t but yes he does look favourite to be Chancellor under Brown 9a poisioned challice if ever there was one) if Brown becomes PM, which I still think is a forgone conclusion no matter how bad a decision it actually is.
Tonight on TV Peter Hitchens is going to do a character assassination of David Cameron. From what I hear it’s pretty hard hitting. But before we spend the next five days declaring him ‘toast’ it’s worth pointing out that politicians have good days and they have bad. The electorate rarely remember either.
They start to concentrate a month or two before they are asked to make a choice and then they make a simple judgement. Which party’s victory is likely to be in the best interests of the country and themselves over the next four years? The fact that the leader Labour are going to choose has uniquely produced 44 quarters of consecutive growth is likely to stand the party in good stead but nothing is certain.
And the fact that Peter Hitchins is portraying David Cameron as a phony wont matter a jot. All he has to do is wait three years, produce better looking policies and then convince people that he’ll deliver them better than Labour.
4. From what I read “the Hitch” is going to be concentrating on Cameron’s class and backgroun - i.e. Eton and coming from a wealthy family.
My response - so what ? The only people who get excited about that sort of irrelevant are sectarian and unworthy of any platform especially national tv.
I don’t think that the Chancellor under Brown will one of the high profile rising “stars”. Strong case for an unknown - Douglas Alexander or Des Browne perhaps. I think Straw will be offered the chancellorship but either take the FO or more likely stay as Leader of the House where he seems to be happy and has Lord’s reform to push through.
Jack Straw and Darling are now level pegging as next Chancellor on Betfair, with Ed Balls a very close third.
7. Money money money…
You’ve got to laugh. Hills cut Straw’s price in the Chancellor market to 5/2 before going off air! Presumably somebody gave the Youth Opportunities Lad in charge a kick. Wonder what price he’ll have in the morning?
Ladbrokes have Straw at twos - Darling at evens! Balls is sixes but they will only take £25. Fantastic betting opportunities!
Who would you rather have as a next door neighbour, Peter Hitchens or David Cameron ?
4 - If Roger is correct, I wonder if this will influence ptp’s views on this week’s BrandIndex selections?
Re 4, Roger, Are you alright?
4. Roger seems to be close to chucking in the towel at last. Must have been a depressing few months for him.
Straw still looks great value for the top job to me…remember Hague and Howard. He is now in the best possible position to benefit from any ‘unexpected slip’ by GB.
Can anyone tell me on ID cards are they a devolved matter or not.
11 PfP - That’s funny, I’m just writing my BrandIndex piece! As it happens, the answer is no. We have Cameron marked down as a No Bet. A Hitchens knife job wouldn’t make me change my mind. Might even help the bloke!
Must dash now…copy to write.
15,
No they’re not.
Re 15 Punter, No it isn’t, ID cards are UK wide.
Great minds think alike! Not sure is you have checked my gambling blog (which has run for > 1 year now) at kickingbets.blogspot.com
I posted thsi as a great bet yesterday, I have also completed analsisys in the past 3 months on
- French Presidential Election
- US Presidential Election
- Tony Blair leaving date
Let me know what you all think! (Either here or on my blog).
10. Peter Hitchens without a doubt. No token windmill on my chimney top for a start.
16 - Peter, forgive me taking this out of turn and out of flow with the thread, but I’ve been wanting to ask you for some time now exactly what your own politics are? Your reference to ‘the Boy David’ on the previous thread gives me a pretty good idea, but I think you have been rather careful not to be too specific to this point.
15 - no and yes. They are part of the immigration and nationality directorate at the Home Office, but how they are used to access public services is devolved.
The Scottish Parliament has already said they won’t bother with them - I guess saving a substantial amount on the bureaucracy (that won’t work) of ‘checking peoples’ papers’.
18, 17&22 So why is this focus leaflet that arrived asking me vote Lib Dem in May because inter alia they oppose them.
1. Andy - you were the first but not the only.
Three people besides yourself nominated Jack Straw in the start of year predictions: Brian, Ted and Manjit.
Mike - is there any chance of a permanent link to the 2007 predictions? The 2006 page is still there.
24,
Ah well - so I was unique for a while, until these three turned up
21. Ptp has on a previous thread owned up to being a former Labour activist. In addition, his leftish bias can be seen from a) rather sentimental pro-EU posts talking of growing up playing in bomb craters in the East End and b) his frequent defences of the odious Snowflake - though this latter trait might just be the chivalry one still finds among gentlemen of a certain age.
19. Chris Trinder. Hi.
Do you have an analysis of how your betting tips have fared since you have been running your gambling blog. Up or down?
BTW, I may have caused mayhem on this market yesterday as, at approx. 11 a.m., I tried to put £250 on at 6-1 yesterday. William Hill did allow me £50 and took down the market!
27. St.John, Yes, I posted my analysis after 1 year (i.e. in Dec 06). I was approx 48% in profit for the year! I can send an .xls if anyone wishes…. I’ve changed my strategy this year for fewer, larger bets and concentraing on ‘Special Bets’.
26,
Steady on, old chap. I didn’t know ptp’s politics for a very long time. His occasional (very rare) pro-EU posts do not identify one as a Labourite - there are prop_EU elements in all parties, and would tend to support a pro-LD theory if any.
His defences of all (including snowy) are positive for the site; he has also chided snowflake on many occasions for her confrontational attitude damaging her arguments.
He will be Foreign Sec. Why do a job in which you’ve little experience to bring to bear, and which will be micromanaged by Brown anyway, in favour of a job of which you both loved and of which you have vast experience.
If he gets the choice then it won’t be Chancellor he goes for.
23 - Because the Lib Dems oppose ID cards (and did so when David Cameron was trooping through the aye lobby with Nick Palmer).
It was a Lib Dem minister in Scotland (Jim Wallace) who introduced the ‘non cooperation’ policy north of the border.
29. Well done. Hope it continues for you. I will keep an eye on you!
Regarding Peter Hitchens:
Surely Hitchens must be pretty high up on the list of people who most self-respecting politicians would love to be attacked by?
If you’re lucky enough to get yourself savaged by all three of Hitchens, Crick and Heffer then you’re really onto a good thing…
31. He won’t get the choice. At every press conference past quotes on Iran will be brought up. Brown can’t afford it. He will be Chancellor.
35 - you mean the past quotes saying that going to war was unthinkable?
19 - Chris, I’ve just had a look at your blog - interesting.
From its name, I had imagined that you specialised in football bets (the round one that is), but I didn’t really see any.
With the season drawing to a close, I believe there are some good opportunities on Betfair to back and lay - for example on the Championship title, which is very close and individual results can therefore move the odds dramatically - e.g. two weeks ago PNE were 40-1 now they are twelves for the title. Any views on this league?
& wasn’t Straw supposed to have been moved from the Foreign Office after upsetting Condi? Now Gordon is not going to pick a fight with Washington in his first week.
Given the agreement in N Ireland, does this firm up the date of Blair’s resignation? on the basis he has part of his “legacy”, if you can call it that? What Price resignation the day after the N Ireland parties meet for the first time?
39. Will he want to come back again when the NI agreement inevitably falls apart 12-18 months later?
38 - Is your only basis for ruling out Straw going to the Foreign Office the possibility that the Americans might not be happy?
That long? Paisley and Adams have just made sure that their pay keeps coming for another 6 weeks. Watch out for another fudge then.
42. Perhaps I was being a little optimistic…
31, 35 I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. Straw is tainted with Iraq. As Straw was Foreign sec at start of war surely Brown would not want to reappoint him to that position and thereofore connect his Government in the minds of the electorate with the Iraq war/debacle.
If I was Brown I would have someone unconnected with it all in as Foreign Sec, though I have to say I would not be surprised if Beckett stays.
41. Since Straw left the Foreign Office, the US mid-terms have taken place. Both Condi and Bush are on the way out and the influence of the current incumbents at the White House is on the wane, as it always is for all soon-to-be-departed leaders. In any case, while there was a disturbing degree of credibility to those reports, the notion that British cabinet appointments have to be run past Bush is not something that Brown should have any truck with.
Even so, I think a return to the Foreign Office is unlikely though not impossible. I’d certainly expect Brown to offer him the Treasury; the biggest uncertainty is whether he’d take it - he does have real work to do in his current job as well. That said, my bet is ‘yes’ (though not with Hills, I got 6/1 on Betfair some time ago).
Steven Whaley @ 34 re Hitchens on Cameron — almost no-one will watch.
Trouble is, among the people who will watch are journalists, so it remains easily possible Hitchens can influence the zeitgeist despite the low viewing figures for political documentaries on Channel Four.
46 - Do any *journalists* actually like Hitchens? If you’re a pariah among journalists then you must be pretty close to the bottom of the gutter. Can’t stand the guy, he thinks he speaks for the people when, in fact, he just speaks for obnoxious loud mouthed bores across the land.
For political balance can I also reiterate my loathing for Rebekah Wade, the hypocrite in chief at The Sun.
Love him or loath him, Peter Hitchens is always good value. As for next door neighbour, I would give anything to have Hitchens living next door, you’d never be bored. Hitchens, is bound to be dissapointed in politicians, they’re never going to live up to his high standards. PH did leave the Express, when Desmond took over, because of his anti-pornography views. Hitchens does not court favour, or trim his views to be thought of as popular, how many politicians can say that? I rarely agree with him, but I’ve got a lot of time for him.
Who for the Foreign Office then?
49 - Consensus on here seems to be Hilary Benn.
I should add that I am of the view that Gordon should want Straw as For Sec, as well as Straw wanting it himself. There isn’t much indication that Brown has much interest in foreign affairs, and he certainly has next to no experience in it, so it would, it seems to me, make extreme sense that he would want someone who had experience in the post, and could to some extent be left to their own devices.
49. I think Jimbo Jones makes an interesting point that Beckett may stay on - Brown will want a woman in a relatively high profile job, but if Straw becomes chancellor she’d be favourite to take his place as Leader of the House.
Douglas Alexander would be another obvious possibility - Foreign Office experience and close to Brown. But we’re back to the Scottish question then with potentially three of the top four jobs filled by Scots, unless Reid is moved - and I don’t think he will be. The same goes for Darling and Des Browne, both of whom could be in the running.
If Benn gets the deputy’s job, then he’d be another in with a shout. Like Browne, he’s in a department which is good training for the Foreign Office.
David I really would be gobsmacked if Straw stayed as Leader of the House. He won’t actually get the Lords reform job done before the election anyway. I’m sure he will be offered Chancellor but I agree with those who say he loved the Foreign Office. On balance I suspect it would be difficult to say no to the Treasury and it would round out his career nicely. Also GB will have to be a little careful about stories emerging from any direction that he’s behaving like a stalinist control freak so Straw might get more latitude than some people are suggesting. On balance he is favourite for the job but not a racing certainty. One thing about GB’s first cabinet is that it’s one of his biggest cards to play in selling renewal to the electorate so he’ll be agonising over every detail. There’ll be some eye catching newcomers ( Yvette Cooper?) and some high profile departures; Margaret Beckett?
51. I think Benn is a good call for the FO - he has a good image and personal manner to sell an “ethical” foreign policy (which I suspect will be non-interventionist)
The interesting thing will be what actually happens in Foreign policy over next year. It is not beyond the wit of man to see full scale withdrawal from Iraq of British Troops or at least that being started. Does Brown want to have Straw at the Despatch Box with Tories saying he is cutting and running and that his 2003 Foreign Policy was a failure etc he is responsible etc he should resign. It just seems to much of a risk to me. I wouldn’t rule out Straw getting DCA if not Chancellor and some interesting constitutional Battles being prepared - HoL reform - PR in General election.
24 - Forgotten I’d tipped Straw - hope he gets it if only to balance out my risky gamble that Lembit would be splashed across the Sundays for other dalliances so would be gone by early January
House of Lords reform is a long shot to happen any time soon, and the it’s surely impossible to think of PR happening before the next election (which i don’t think is in Labour’s favour and Straw is opposed to anyway).
hahaha, you don’t think Straw is daft enough to want to become Chancellor do you? he’s far too canny. he wants to go back to the Foreign Office. I fear you may have thrown your money away…
53 - it was Blair’s foreign policy and everyone knows it. Sure Straw could have resigned, but then in not doing he’s no different to anyone else.
Changing the subject, has anybody noticed the steady move from Sarkozy and Bayrou to Royal over the last few days. A couple of polls on Sunday and this afternoon show her drawing level on the first round and either even or two points behind on the second ballot.
But nobody seems to have noticed this in the domestic market. Segolene out at 3/1 with Betfair. Sarkozy at 0.7/1.
Must be value here.
58 I agree - she did come in about half a point on Betfair, but then started to drift again. There were a flurry of posts on here last week, explaining that there was “free money” available by opposing her and backing the other two front runners…..but I’m not so sure.
21 A H Matlock
Sorry for the delay in responding but I had to write something for Mike.
I’m flattered by your interest and also pleased that you weren’t sure. I try not to be too partisan in my comments, which on the whole is fairly easy for me because I am not heavily committed to any particular Party. I would describe my Politics as centreist, or maybe a bit to the left. It follows that I’m generally supportive of Blair, although I think Iraq was a terrible mistake.
Since the political scene now seems to have become focused more on the centre I would be quite comfortable under Government by any of the three main Parties, or a coalition of any two. I would not have said that during the Thatcher years, so you can take it that I approve of the direction in which David Cameron is leading his Party.
Does that answer you satisfactorily? If you come to the Launch Party I will be happy to elaborate until you wished you had never asked me!
Thanks for your interest.
re 40. I’m cycnical too. All this guff from Peter Hain and others about an historic agreement. Are they forgetting that we had a similar historic agreement a few years ago and it all went tits up over some bugging allegations. How’s this executive going to survive if that’s all it takes for someone to take their ball away?
I’m looking for a possible outsider for the Republican nomination - the odds available, leaving aside the two strong favourites neither one of which I think will make it, possibly make it worth backing 3 or 4 from the field.
Peter from Putney. Fred Thompson, if he runs, which increasingly I think he will.
60 - Peter, I noticed you took a lively interest in Cheltenham and indeed attended the festval if I remember correctly. I assume, therefore that your betting interests are fairly catholic. Do you have your own blog or are you planning one?
63 -Thanks for that Blue Moon, I’ll take a look see.
61 Don’t be cynical. Now is the time for Irishmen from both sides of the divide to unite in the common task of getting shed loads of money from the English.
58 Careful, Arthur. I think the issue is that Bayrou was a threat to Sarko. Now he’s falling away, a run-off with Royal is more likely and Sarko is very likely to win that.
If you can, check with Chris from Paris before you start punting. He’s the House expert.
62 PfP - I agree entirely. I’ve had a punt of Fred thompson but there’s quite a few possibilities.
67 - except she’s rapidly narrowing the gap in the second round polls.
Chris may be French, and a great asset to the site, but he seemed to have dismissed Royal’s chances ridiculously early.
All these assumptions are based on the premise that Brown becomes PM. I seem to remember that after Margaret Thatcher announced that she would “fight on” after the first ballot against Heseltine and after a disasterous campaign led by Peter Morrison (? I think )Hurd and Major were quick to support her publicly and lend their support to her campaign. They were then quick off the mark to put themselves forward as candiates when she resigned. The point I’m making is that campaign managers can quickly turn into candidates. I wouldn’t rule that out in this case.
Trivial point: Did Mandelson make his tie and Jack Straw his waistcoat out of House of Lord cushions?
26 Textual Analyst
You’ve a very good memory! Yes, that’s pretty much all correct. As for Snowflake, my politics are fairly close to hers, although I wish she were less strident. The ‘chivalry’ to which you refer relates, I think, to an occasion when somebody was very rude to her. Can’t stand rudeness. It had nothing to do with her being a woman. I don’t think she would approve of being patronised in that way.
28 That’s not illegal, Chris.
Must visit your site soon.
The French like opinion polls even more than we do with the result that there is generally at least a poll a day, with endless analysis of second round votes on differnet scenarios. Reuters do a very good summary every day, if you have access to a terminal.
Until a week ago, Sarkozy was winning 54-46 or better. Bayrou is drifting which pretty much guarantees Royal makes the second round. And the most recent polls are 52-48, 51-49 and 50-50.
30 Andy Cooke
You’re dead right about my pro-Eu beliefs. It’s probably the strongest political belief I hold, unfashionable though it may be.
You are also right about me having LD sympathies. I approved of their tax proposals in the last election and have always been strongly in favour of PR. In fact, I voted LD in the past few elections, but it was largely tactical. (Guildford, you see.)
Now I’m back living in solid Labour territory I will probably vote Labour next time, but only because the incumbent is a hard working constituency MP (Harry Cohen) with a solid record of voting against Iraq.
64 Peter from Putney
My first love is jumps racing but I take an interest in most sports and am always on the look out for a decent bet whatever the subject. (I made a few bob on the White Christmas market last year!)
Naturally I enjoy talking about politics too so this site is heaven sent for me since it combines two of my passions.
No, I don’t have a blog but am beginning to think I should. Can’t get my arse in gear though…and I’m not very tecky.
73. The relief at Bayrou’s slippage is palpable in this house. I decided after being a click away from backing Bayrou fairly strongly during the big rush to actually shift to Royal as I couldn’t see where further slippage in her vote was going to come from.
I now have decent odds on both Sarkozy & Royal thanks to her many wobbles.
75, Start a blog? And end up a self promting genius like yer man Benedict White? No no no!
76 On reflection Yokel, I’m sure you’re right.
77 - If Benedict’s counter is right he should hit 21,000 visitors tonight (Cash for Peerages certainly helped someone)
Well, I was tempted by the Straw bet and ended up sticking a tenner on on Betfair at 4.1 - not sure it was a very good price, but a nice little bonus if he does get no.11.
However - I think that, as 73 implies, the French race is looking less bleak for Royal than it was. Accordingly, I’ve hedged by taking out a side bet at Ladbrokes on her: £26 at 3/1. That’s to add to my flutters last week at William Hill on Bayrou (£25 at 5/1) and Sarko (£50 at 11/10).
Which I think means for a total outlay of £101 on the présidentielle, I get £104 (£3 profit!) for Ségo; £105 (£4 up) for Sarko; and £150 (£49 up) for Bayrou. OK, piddling amounts (and apologies for describing this at overmuch length), but I suddenly got cold feet about the prospect of losing my initial £75 if Royal did make it, and I quite like the prospect of a certain profit, however small, on every remotely likely outcome. Is this an example of arbitrage? - it’s not really a term I understand.
re 78, Ted, that milestone was passed at 9.48 PM today, with a visit from Andrea!
Peter the Punter if you want some advice on a blog, email me.
80 Thanks Benny but got too much else on my mind at the moment..not least that frigging Betfair price on Gordo.
Re 81, Peter, It is either Ben or Benedict. Please
Got in when Straw was around 13.5 on Betfair - that was the accumulated odds anyway. £70 on. Come on, Jack!!!