Will this allow Tony to go out on a high?
March 27th, 2007-
And will Devolution-Day be the moment they line up behind Brown?
Following yesterday dramatic meeting between Ian Paisley and Gerry Adams it is becoming clear that Devolution Day - May 8th 2007 - will play a critical part in Tony Blair’s exit time-table.
For the achievement of peace between the communities will become a major element of the Prime Minister’s legacy and provide the backdrop of his historic departure announcement.
And according to the Times this morning May 8th will also be a key moment in Gordon Brown’s plan to become Prime Minister without facing a serious challenge.
The paper reports that on the day of the announcement it has been told “Gordon Brown’s leadership team will try to deter any heavy-weight challengers by demonstrating a massive show of support for him on the day that Tony Blair announces he is going”.
May 8th is also the Tuesday after the elections for the Scottish and Welsh parliaments as well as the local council elections in England when Labour is expected to take a drubbing.
The news from Belfast and the linkage to Blair’s exit has caused a big change in the departure date betting. Because the Betfair market is on the date when Blair ceases officially to be leader Q2 2007 has now become the 0.74/1 favourite.
Meanwhile after all the goings on over the weekend the Guardian is quoting the comment on the site yesterday by Nick Palmer MP about the settled mood of Labour MPs about the Brown succession.
So given that everything is now apparently sorted in UK politics for the next few years what are we going to talk about on Politicalbetting?
But what’s that old saying - “There’s many a slip twixt cup and lip”?
Mike Smithson
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They look as if someone has stuffed their mouths with gold.
Sorry to start to comments on a cynical note, I really hope that the troubles are at last over. But from the Guardian Leader today.
“…. There is public money to be squeezed out of the Treasury. There are local residents to be protected from imminent - and now suspended - large hikes in water charges.”
It sounds to me that one, or both, of them will threaten to end the agreement, unless the money keeps flowing. If the Treasury says enough is enough, what then?
I fear that the mistake has been to allow the delay to 8th May - Their bluff should have been called - Toy Blair should have stopped their pay until 8th May.
Tony Blair - sorry!
3 Actually, Toy Poodle says it all! (Well he certainly wouldn’t be one for Standards, would he?)
No Tony Blair won’t go on a high. On May 3rd Labour will get the worst local election vote ever. The great British public are not going to give Blair credit for anything in Northern Ireland. It isn’t high on their agenda. There are more important issues than that to ordinary people. Tony Blair will go as the most disgraced British PM in history. His legacy will be Iraq, lies and the damage he has done to Britain.
“Tony Blair will go as the most disgraced British PM in history.”
Are you sure about that? Are you sure there haven’t been more disgraced politicians hounded from office for greater offences than cash for honours?
Surely we should talk about GE and local election spreads and outcomes. If Miliband is saying that the fantasy trip of the ABGs is over.
4 I’d put it rather differently, Mike. Were it not for Iraq, he would have gone out with the reputation of being one of our greatest Prime Ministers. Now I admit Iraq is pretty big, but in a ten year stint, it isn’t quite everything.
Not really the right day for Tony-bashing, is it?
Tell the poor sods in Iraq that.
5. You’re changing the terms of the question from ‘PM’ to ‘politician’. You’re also assuming that cash-for-honours will snare him before he leaves office; I doubt it will, not least because of the position that would put the police in.
The timing would enable Blair to announce his leaving on something of a high, though as that will also be a pre-announcement with him actually going in June or July, he still can’t stage manage his final exit.
On that subject (the two dates), it is absurd that BetFair still haven’t clarified their position on what the market is about: what ‘official leader’ means in the context of the period of the leadership election. They would have made life so much more simple had it been about his going as PM.
This deal is frankly unbelieveable in the historical context of NI and is thanks to the work (started by Major) of Tony Blair.
10 Many, many people, most of them unknown to us, will have worked tirelessly to bring the Agreement about. Major and Blair are however properly acknowledged as bookends at the beginning and, hopefully, the end of the process.
Some people reading all this might start to think that certain people are banking on a 2009/10 defeat for Labour and are positioning themselves for a 2010 leadership bid…
O/T France - Daily Ipsos tracking poll
sarkozy 31 (+1)
royal 25.5 (=)
bayrou 18.5 (-0.5)
le pen 13 (-0.5)
second round
sarkozy 53.5 (+0.5) royal 46.5 (-0.5)
Update of my poll of polls
sarkozy 28,17
royal 25,67
bayrou 20.00
le pen 12.75
second round sarkozy 52.08 royal 47.92
Makes sense to me. I’ve always thought that solving a centuries-old civil conflict on our own territory was an enormously valuable prize if we could do it, and much more likely to be in the history books than anything else we do or don’t do. That doesn’t necessarily mean it will have great significance in how people vote in May. It’s a simply a good thing in itself.
Peter Hain was due to speak in Broxtowe tonight, but we’ve conceded that leading the debate on the agreement in the Commons takes precedence over talking to us in Beeston. (Big of us, don’t you think?) We’ll get him next week instead.
O/T: Bayrou is starting to look like a busted flush - came close but hard to surge back again. Come on Sego!
‘Not really the right day for Tony-bashing, is it?’
Yesterday we had speculation that a Falklands-style event would save Labour, now we are expected to grovel at the feet of Blair for his ‘historic achievements’ in NI. It’s all getting pretty desperate, isn’t it? Reality check coming in May.
15 - Actually voters in my area are swarming to Labour in response to the news in Ireland, and I expect support for Tony to be reflected in an 80% swing from Tory to Labour as a result.
There’s talk of street parties and the bunting is already going up - though there is debate over which flag is politically correct in such a sensitive moment.
We’re not sure if the music should be Broitish or Irish so we’ve compromised and will be blaring out Steeleye Span which is sort of Irishy-sounding English folk.
Who said ‘grovel’, Cynic?
Who said ‘historic achievements’?
Who is desperate, Cynic? You?
14- Nick
Don’t rejoince too fast, Bayrou looks like he won’t beat Royal, but she still doesn’t look like a winner. Actually I think most members of her team would settle for a “reasonably good” score in the second round (ie over 47%) like Jospin did in 1995.
As you are the most prominent politicain among the contibuters of this site, I wanted you to ask a personal question : how do you cope with the incredible physical efforts a campaign seems to impose on a candidate? For example Royal looks (and sounds) more and more tired every day, and there is still one month to go…
Do you allow yourself day-offs?
The fact that Adams and Paisley can talk to each other like - well, a couple of Scottish politicians trying to form an administration after an inconclusive Holyrood election - without either losing more than an iota of support back at the ranch is simply huge. Which of us would’ve supposed that ten years ago a Northern Ireland election would be fought over the issue of water rates?
As to Our Genial Host’s fear that he won’t have anything to talk about - cheer up, mate, there’s always articles to be written on why the Lib Dems have picked the wrong leader
18: Chris - no, I know Sego still looks an outside chance.
Personally, adrenalin keeps me going during a campaign. In each of the last elections, I reckoned to be out on the doorstep or doing something else campaign-related for at least 14 hours a day, 7 days a week. One can question how much difference it all makes in the final month, but it’s such fun - a month of sheer colour to remember. I remember back in 1995 when I was a Euro-candidate in a hopeless seat still haranguing the silent streets of Rye 10 minutes before polling closed through a car loudspeaker, till my girlfriend at the time gently leaned across and disconnected it. Another abiding memory is pounding up a hill in The Vista, Stapleford, chasing one more voter who hadn’t turned out, and getting him to the polls with seconds to spare.
Not everyone feels that way. Some politicians really hate elections. Poor things.
19 Innocent
If Our Genial Host wins much more money on his BrandIndex bets he won’t be with us much longer. He’ll be off to his retirement home in Bermuda, leaving somebody else to worry about the next thread.
Any volunteers to replace him? What are The Creatures doing these days?
The fact that GB will be a bad, non-consensus, control-freak, busted-flush premier is now such a paradigm amongst Tories on this site that a half-good performance from Gordon would be a triumph!
Don’t write him off! I wrote Major off in 1992 and it still haunts me to this day.
Also, well done Peter Hain for forcing the sides together. He correctly used the full range of his powers to show “well, if you’re not going to make decisions for the people of NI, then I will and see how you like it!” Very effective.
20. Nick, I suppose the knowledge that your career may be over due to not “knocking-up” one area or even one street keeps you going to the end. Democracy can be brutal!
[23] But not half as brutal as perfectionism…
Credit where credit is due. Sure the process was started by Major, and it will be very expensive for the English taxpayer (though that has never mattered to TB).
However, on the plus side of his contribution as PM, I can’t think of a bigger one.
If Blair wants to go out on a high - perhaps he should just have a quiet word with David Cameron!
(Someone had to say it!)
Credit should be given where it’s due. Whatever the flaws and the faults in this agreement, hopefully its brought an end to violence in Ulster, that should be recognised. Tony Blair played a major role in achieving this.
Chris - if Sego gets to the final she should have a good chance of winning. Almost whenever voters have had the chance of voting so their country gets a woman for the first time they have taken it - why should France be different?
My guess is that Sarky will poll less than his poll numbers in the first round and Sego more. The current prices look attractive
If it is true that Blair sees Cameron as his more natural successor then perhaps the best thing he could do to secure his legacy is to make ABSOLUTELY sure that Gordon takes over! lol
29. This is just a Tory myth. TB wants Labour to be the natural party of government. To say he would like to see DC win the next election is just not true.
16. Nice post. The hagiographers on here may not like it but this ‘hand of history’ moment will have zero influence on the mainland political scene. Blair is thoroughly discredited by Iraq and cash for honours, and may yet be disgraced by the latter. Manufacturing a short-term armistice in NI via huge bribes to local politicians in an attempt to ‘go out on a high’ is pure vanity.
28- Mike
Concerning the first round I think Bayrou is the most overrated candidate and le pen the most underrated in the polls. I think both royal and sarkozy will poll a bit less than their present scores.
Anyway… it’s the second round that matters. And sarkozy has created a very sustained lead in the polls over Royal.
This has nothing to do with Royal as a “woman candidate” (besides we already had a female Prime minster in 1991-1992) or Sarkozy’s personal appeal (many electors are uncomfortable with him).
The major factor in any presidential election is the credibility factor : in the last weeks of the election “looking the part” is very very important. Chirac lost in 1988 because Mitterrand seemed more experienced and wise, he won in 1995 because he looked like the only real statesman among the candidates.
In every single poll concerning either “credibility” “statesmanship” or “who seems able to be president”, Sarkozy crushes Royal, even among left-wing voters. I think this will guarantee him victory if he faces Royal in the second round.
Good article Mike. Interesting to see that the Brown camp still want to limit the challenge!
Perhaps the “legacy” will make Tony stay a while
31 Cynic - You again respond to points that nobody has put. It makes you appear rather desperate.
Blair certainly deserves credit for carrying on Major’s work. Most of us never thought it could happen but this is certainly to Blair’s credit. Paisley also deserves more praise than he gets because he got Adams and McGuinness to go further than they had originally wanted.
I hate to say it but Hain deserves a bit of credit too. His idea of foisting comprehensive education and water metering on NI really seesm to have galvanised both sides into working harder (and threatening to take their salaries didn’t do any harm).
I don’t see this as a party political issue and for this reason I can’t see any real beneift accruing to the government over it. It might briefly boost Blair’s popularity rating (which will keep going up as people realise he’s aboutto be replaced by GB)
35 Kingbongo - “It might briefly boost Blair’s popularity rating (which will keep going up as people realise he’s aboutto be replaced by GB)”
That’s what we thought when we recommended a Blair buy on the Politicians Brandindex. Get on. It’s looking an increasingly sound bet.
Re 5 Robert “Are you sure about that? Are you sure there haven’t been more disgraced politicians hounded from office for greater offences than cash for honours?”
as PM?
Re 14, Nick “Peter Hain was due to speak in Broxtowe tonight, but we’ve conceded that leading the debate on the agreement in the Commons takes precedence over talking to us in Beeston. (Big of us, don’t you think?) We’ll get him next week instead.”
Very big of you. I would have demanded he turn up!
37. I wonder how Thatcher would have fared if Special Branch had investigated her links to Azil Nadir and her other assorted foreign backers?
[38] How’s your own search for a seat going, Benedict?
Peter bit late looking at you suggestions for th YouGov popularity index on IG. Your suggestion of a 2 point bet on Jack Straw has already moved the market by 0.5 - Is it the weight of PB money of their fear of you? I have sold 2 Camerons - if he stays the same as last week I win and I would have thought he should be tending South.
Re 22, Redflump “The fact that GB will be a bad, non-consensus, control-freak, busted-flush premier is now such a paradigm amongst Tories on this site that a half-good performance from Gordon would be a triumph!
Don’t write him off! I wrote Major off in 1992 and it still haunts me to this day.”
We are not writing him off, we just think he would be our easiest to defeat. (Well apart from McDonald, but you aren’t going to elect him now are you?)
39. Pathetic.
Re 39, Redflump as far as I am aware you could take foriegn donations at the time, so she did nothing even remotely questionable in that regard. (Politicaly maybe, legaly no)
Re 40, Innocent, good. I am sat on one right now
Whilst we’re handing out the plaudits I think we should not forget two of the pre-eminent architects of the peace process from earlier days.
John Hume and David Trimble. The former to much odium at the time brought Gerry Adams into the process initially. The latter inched his way through the process but in doing so saw the eclipse of his own position and party.
16 - I used to share a flat with the girlfriend of the bass player of Steeleye Span.
26 -
29 - Reading Election Focus: “Tory Candidate says no difference between Cameron and Blair”
35 - the depressing thing is that what we have now is pretty much what Sunningdale offered 33 years ago
39 Redflump. Mrs T would have hand-bagged “Special Branch” back to the Met and they would have thought gladly of her that she had let them off so lightly !
[45] I walked into that one …
41 You touch on a tricky point, Icarus.
The market is very thin so even small trades can move it. It’s probably the case that most of the bets are coming from PBers. The predictions therefore have a certain self-fulfilling tendency. It may be possible to exploit this phenomenon. You could for example wait until the price has moved and then bet against the PB recommendation. I know a few people did this last week after Brown’s price leapt 1.9 points. They cleaned up. (I wasn’t one of them.
)
I would have thought Straw is such a good buy that you could ignore the 0.5 movement to date, but maybe tone the stake down - to 1.5 say.
I agree with you about Cameron. I was tempted by a small sell but deferred to my colleagues on the selection committee, for whose views I have developed a healthy respect.
47 Tabman - The BBC referred to it last night as ‘Sunningdale for slow learners’.
Well, maybe, but better late than never. Some people *never* learn.
re 32. Would you not say that the questions you refer to are ones designed to elicit a response for a man over a woman? They are typical of how Jim Callaghan sought to dismiss the Maggie threat in the late 70s.
Don’t underestimate the gender factor - it’s very powerful and the result will be a lot closer than the polls suggest.
I recall the question marks that arose over whether Sego would get the nomination yet she got it by a thumping margin.
Yes, I think we don’t want to overdo the Blair praising on this issue. He followed on Major’s work diligently and thoroughly, and used all his skills to effect. Kudos to him and Major.
But a greater honour, if such it is, must go to Paisley and Adams for so skilfully bringing in their diehard parties - it sticks in the craw for me to praise Adams, and I’m sure lefties find it very hard to praise Paisley, but that’s the way it is. It took Nixon to go to China, as they say.
But the very largest credit must go to the people of Northern Ireland who have suffered and grieved for thirty years and finally said enough. In the end, it’s their deal. Let’s hope it lasts.
To return to TB, finally, I’m afraid, despite Northern Ireland, that its wishful thinking to believe his legacy is going to be any other than Iraq and cash-for-peerages and the rest.
Iraq is a monstrous moral mistake, (at best), cash-for-peerages a squalid and depressing embarrassment. Together they sum up the way New Labour has destroyed the relationship of trust between the people and the politicians, with their ceaseless lies, spin and evasions.
New Labour and Blair have poisoned the well of British politics for a generation. Shame on them. The first job for whoever comes next is to try, somehow, to rebuild that trust. We need to clean the air and get rid of the stink of this awful lying government.
43. Oh dear cynic - touched a raw nerve? The fact is that ALL parties have dirty hands on this - Labour is just unlucky to be in the hotseat. And only Labour has brought in much more transparent rules governing party funding. But never mind, it doesn’t suit your agenda.
47. Tabman - on Newsnight one wag declared the agreement “Sunningdale for slow-learners”
Re 49, Innocent
52 Mike S. So you’ll be splashing the Smithson cash on Hilary then ?!?!?
47. Incorrect. Sunningdale was a much better deal as it did not force democratic politicians to share power with unrepentant murderers and racketeers.
I find this whole debate over the leadership election funny in a strange sort of way. One day Brown is a shoo-in, next day his political career is over and Tony Blair is going to stay until 2008, the next Brown will be coronated on May 1. I know a week is a long time in politics but this is ridiculous. The fact is that Brown would make an excellent Prime Minister. However, there are several candidates who are simply better that he is ; Miliband, Reid, Johnson and Milburn to name a few. It is inevitable that one of them will challenge him and will beat him. Even if no Blairite comes forward initially some candidate from the left, such as Meacher or McDonnell, will do so and force a contest, allowing Miliband or Reid to announce without being seen as divisive.
To be honest, seeing a bunch of Tories on Lib Dems on this site claiming to know the mood of the labour party is quite strange. Even Nick Palmer, who as a Labour MP, is the one insider in this forum is only a backbench MP who has been a strong Brownite since day 1.
While we’re handing out the plaudits for the NI peace process surely Osama Bin Laden (for 9/11) and George Bush (for stamping down on jolly craicsters Noraid after 9/11) should take the stage with Blair ???
This is a good milestone - but I’m amazed that everyone seems to think that this is the last paragraph in the story of N Ireland! Anyone who has followed the story over the last 15 years must surely know that there is bound to be more disappointment. The nay-sayers in both parties (DUP, SF) will be looking for reasons to throw their toys out of the pram at some point for political advantage. We’ve seen it dozens of times before, and to believe now that this is a happy ending would be unwisely setting oneself up for future disappointment when there are rocky times, which there will be. Time to keep a reality hat on I think - this event is much less significant than the first IRA ceasefire for example…
58. Milburn? MILBURN??? Please say you are joking! I would love him to stand - and be crushed. He has absolutely no following in the Party whatsoever! Milburn!
58.”Even Nick Palmer, who as a Labour MP, is the one insider in this forum is only a backbench MP who has been a strong Brownite since day 1£”
He’s usually “accused” to be a Blairite. Now a Brownite…what next?
OT. Our Ken says that the Tories should return to traditional Cabinet governmemt :
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/6497751.stm
M Partridge is a) a spoof; b) a Blairite “ultra” - which means that he considers anyone who isnt also an ultra to be a Brownite!
[53] I largely agree with you Sean, on Northern Ireland.
The story is told that not long after the Good Friday agreement there was a bank robbery in Belfast that had nothing to do with politics - just crime, plain & simple. No one in the city could remember such a thing. Whether you view the various cease-fires as genuine or cynical, they did at least show to the plain people of Ireland that many of the paramilitaries were the same people as formed the criminal underground in other places.
It’s because it took them (and others) so long to realise that, that the process has taken so long. But I believe that they have seen through the “men of violence” & that is why Paisley and Adams are able to do the business.
64. A well established spoof I think.
63. Does David Cameron have a handbag or a Norman Tebbit?
65. How do you square that judgement with the continued growth in the Sinn Fein vote?
68. No of votes cast or no of voters ?
OT. Youngster tells Scots use your vote !!!!
Jack W is 104.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/6494685.stm
…………………..
67 ChrisD. Cameron has a man-bag …. whilst our Ken has man-boobs and the Chingford Skinhead is all man, and all in the best possible taste !!
Yup, you are pretty much on target today, SeanT.
When do we get the old Sean T back?
OT. The SNP hit a snag in the Western Isles :
http://www.theherald.co.uk/politics/news/display.var.1287163.0.0.php
70.
68 - Has anyone checked the accuracy of the register in Northern Ireland recently?
Is it true that to vote you have to show some form of identity there? If so, does it have to be an identity card (sorry, driving license)?
Whatever I would not put it past some of the political parties in NI to have found a way to swell the numbers of votes cast in their favour.
62 -
Ok, I should have said a supporter of Brown rather than Brownite. I agree with Nick Palmer on 98% of the issues (as I would with any Labour MP). However, it isn’t correct for PB.com and the Guardian to claim that his support for Brown is evidence of a shift in MPs opinion since he’s been saying that Brown will be unopposed for the past two years. Let’s remember that a recent Guardian poll found MPs split 50/50 between GB and another candidate, which is pretty bad news for GB given that he’s got very high name recognition.
There’s nothing wrong with GB - just that Miliband, Reid et al will make better leaders.
One of your exs Jack?
O/T Cricket WC : WI v Aus - total sixes (ie sum of both teams)available at 7.75 (IG)- I’m buying.
Last 3 games Aus have scored 11,13 & 9
Windies have scored 7,6 & 7
et al might be OK but the others - you must be joking.
77 - How big is the ground in Antigua in comparison to the previous grounds? (I know Warner Park (previous Aus matches) was tiny).
Tonight Quebec had their provincial elections. Results:
Liberal 48 seats (-24 compared to dissolution)
ADQ (Action démocratique) 41 seats (+36)
Parti Quebecois 36 seats (-9)
Others 1 (-1)
77. That looks excellent value Jamie.
Antigua isn’t a very big island! Have invested a bit though bowling may be better.
80- Andrea
Terrible results for both Liberal and PQ… the minority government will be very weak.
however, good news for PB.com : a new general election is likely, as Harper will be heartened by ADQ results (they’re very near conservative on policies).
80. ops, others is 0 after this election, not 1.
(To recent cricket posts) I could not fail but notice the smallness of many of the grounds in the first round-so its little wonder world-class batsman were plundering 6s here,there,everywhere-I should think the cricket lovers on this site would have scored a fair few:wink:
63 Good work Clarke! If only he was leader of the opposition - the man knows what he is talking about. Brown vs Clarke would have been fantastic for politics and genuinely good for Britain. What a shame.
85-Going on,I recall Bob Willis used to take a 45-50 yard run-up,so some of the grounds would scarcely have been big enough for Bustling Bob (who remains one of my all-time cricket heroes)
Andrea: Interesting that the ruling federal party didnt get a single seat in the Quebec elections! Do you know the percentages polled for each party?
76 Icarus. Far too young and callow for my taste !!
83 Chris(Paris). Do we have figures on the % of electorate who have made their mind up ?? …. and do you recall turnout in 02 ??
Another gaffe by Mike’s favourite Sego. She said that any illegal immigrant who got his child/children into school should be regularised. Now she’s backing down and saying that, of course, people should be dealt with on a case by case basis. For Mike to say that competence for the job is a ‘masculine’ question is completely absurd and sexist. It is surely one of the most important questions about any of the candidates. Personally I think a) none of the three main candidates is guaranteed a place in the second round yet given the quite large margin of errors in these polls. Sarko could be squeezed a bit by the Front National but remember he has a pretty tough image on law and order and immigration. Sego could be squeezed a bit by Besancenot and Bove now that they get equal time. A lot of far left voters think Sego is far too right wing and wouldn’t care tuppence if Bayrou beat her which anyway looks less likely now. Bayrou himself could be squeezed by either of the other big two. In the second round I think the balance between left and right precludes an easy victory for Sarko ( I know some polls suggest differently but I think Sego will have an underpinning). When it comes down to it Sego’s gender may well hurt her. There are plenty of older women who won’t vote for a woman and the feminists will vote left anyway. Her main problem is that she simply hasn’t demonstrated that she is up to the job. Sarko, for all that he troubles some people as a divisive figure, is full of purpose, energy and intellect; clearly someone you could imagine running France with competence and purpose. Sarko 52 to 48 over Sego.
PtP
If I open up an IG index account what is the best way of going about it? Is there a link from this site and are there any introductory offers?
88. MBoy. I don’t think they stood at all
The % are: Lib 33%, ADQ 31%, PQ 28%
91. Just seen the link down the side of PBC page.
St John 91. Click the IG link in the links bar.
89- Jack W
you mean the % of electorate who have made their mind in France?
well according to ipsos 62% of voters have made up their mind (74% os sarkozy voters, 66% of both le pen and royal voters, 41% of bayrou voters).
According to LH2, 47% won’t change their vote before the first round, 31% have picked a candidate but say they might change before the first round, 22% haven’ made any choice.
94. Thanks Mike. This time next year we’ll all be millionaires!
Bill Olner (Nuneaton MP) will retire at next GE. He was born in 1942 and he was elected for the first time in 1992.
Antigua - brand new ground (so small risk the wicket may be unplayable) but the pitch size isn’t exactly the Oval. Good luck all.
97. Cluck cluck cluck
Andrea It will obviously be very bad news for Labour if MPs in marginal seats like Nuneaton start retiring in droves. Is there a pattern developing yet?
100. We should watch the Lib Dems in this regard too…Keetch already ‘gone before his time’ surely a few more likely to follow…
95 Chris(Paris). Thanks.
Unitary bids that are going forward have been announced:
* Bedfordshire County Council - for a single unitary authority for the county
* Bedford Borough Council - for a unitary Bedford
* Cornwall County Council - for a single unitary authority for the county
* Cheshire County Council - for a single unitary authority for the county
* Chester City Council - for two unitary authorities for the county
* Cumbria County Council - for a single unitary authority for the county
* Durham County Council - for a single unitary authority for the county
* Exeter City Council - for a single unitary authority for the city
* Ipswich Borough Council - for a single unitary authority for the borough
* North Yorkshire County Council - for a single unitary authority for the county
* Northumberland County Council - for a single unitary authority for the county
* Northumberland Districts - for two unitary authorities for the county
* Norwich City Council - for a single unitary authority for the city on existing boundaries
* Shropshire County Council - for a single unitary authority for the county
* Somerset County Council - for a single unitary authority for the county
* Wiltshire County Council - for a single unitary authority for the county
100. Blue Moon, there are some Labour MPs in marginal seats retiring. However some of them aren’t actually young anyway, so maybe they would have retired even if they had been in a safer seat. There’s just 1 Lab MP retiring in a marginal who isn’t old, so my malicious mind would think he’s going because he’ll lose next time.
In Olner’s case, he has served at council level since 1969 and then as MP since 1992. Being born in 1942, he’ll probably be 67/68 by next GEs. Nuneaton is getting positive boundary changes for Labour; still a marginal, but a Lab majority of around 10% (compared to the 2005 5% maj)
Didn’t the tories suggest something similar a while back?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/6498379.stm
Will there not be even more pressure than normal not to have any MPs croak it after the next GE ?
A hung parliment could quickly be become unhung with a bye election or two !
77 - your previous game stats include matches against Holland & Scotland (for Australia) and Ireland & Zimbabwe (for Bangladesh), as well as a complete run-fest (Aus v SA) on an absolute belter. There’s also a possibility of some rain today.
Also I would advise you that usually the value (if there is any) on such markets with spread firms is to sell; they take vastly more buy bets from casual punters so adjust the spread in that direction (and restrict big-hitters who wish to sell).
Good luck anyway, but be cautious.
107 - sorry!!! - for Bangladesh read West Indies, don’t know where that came from!
75 - “I agree with Nick Palmer on 98% of the issues (as I would with any Labour MP).”
Is that a joke? How can you agree with 98% of the issues of the Blairites, like Mr Palmer, plus 98% of the issues with Labour rebel MPs who oppossed Iraq war, Trident replacement, foundation hospitals, anti-terrorism bills, ID cards, top up fees etc?
105: And the Lib Dems…
Andrea I agree that it would be unfair to characterise Bill Olner as going because of fear of loss but nonetheless if Labour loses the incumbency advantage in a number of marginal seats- for whatever reason- it can only be good for the Conservatives. The same point is even stronger in the case of Tory/LD marginals where LD MPs, to generalise , tend to rely more heavily on a personal vote to keep their seats. Are there more Paul Keetchs?
and furthermore:
http://weather.yahoo.com/forecast/ACXX0002.html
107. I hear you but IG has consistently under valued the 6s in this tourney. As the minimum is 0 in a game there is not a lot of downside (7.75 units).
Ponting said that after some initial juice the Antigua pitch looks “a belter” but bet at your own risk etc.
Surely this will be a massive boost for Hain’s Deputy leadership chances????????
111. Gidley would be an obvious candidate, plus perhaps the non-entities who sit for Carshalton and Sutton. David Heath must be getting on a bit too…
100. Blue Moon. Labour MPs retiring in less than 10% majorities so far are:
John Grogan (Selby and Ainsty, notional Con seat)
Christine McCafferty (Calder Valley)
Doug Naysmith (Bristol North West)
Des Turner (Brighton Kemptown)
and now Bill Olner in Nuneaton (Wells gives a 9.7% majority, Baxter a 11% majority, don’t know what figures R&T give)
Olner, McCafferty, Naysmith and Turner will probably all be over retirement age by next GE (well, 3 of them already are), whilst Grogan is still young.
Anyway your point at 111 is valid. If they’ve a personal vote, their retirement will damage Labour.
115,Living in Bournemouth East,I have heard local positive press for Sandra Gidley as a conscentious,hard-working MP-but any adverse swing would unseat her-in the likely event of her losing Romsey and Southampton North,I would wish her luck in finding a new berth
88 - I think that you will find that the Conservative Party of Canada does not fight Quebec Provincial elections. Furthermore, the Provincial Liberal Party is not exactly attached to the Federal Party as exampled by the Premier, Jean Charest, being a former leader of the Progressive Conservative Party.
The Federal Governemnt shovelled money into Quebec to shore up the Provincial Governemnt.
112. Furthermore
buying 6s have made the spread on 18 out of the first 24 matches of the WC with 5 of these being double the spread.
Wasn’t Jean Charest, the current (and outgoing?) Liberal Premier in Quebec, once the Federal Leader of the Conservatives (when they were massacred to 3 seats or so)? Now, that’s a cross dressing that would make even our salty sea-dog, Jack W, blush with envy.
115 Tom Brake and Paul Burstow are both only around 45 so will be MP’s for another 20 years or so LOL . David Heath is I think 53 so another couple of GE’s in him still .
The love of Hartlepool CLP for Mandy is growing…after suggestions he can come back to them, the CLP procedures secretary said: “We are very happy with our MP. He said he would be Hartlepool’s voice in Westminster and he has been. I always regarded Peter Mandelson as Westminster’s voice in Hartlepool.”
Looks like the DUP have their first resignation of any note over deal making with Sinn Fein. Jim Allister MEP.
Wouldn’t like to be in his shoes, the party will turn on him. It’s also not the first time Jim’s resigned over stuff with the DUP either.
Completely O/T, but loved this - will it affect the voters??
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xx8Tv-S7W5I
I see we have moved the 6s market a quarter of a point without a ball being bowled! This is my second 6s bet - my only other one lost badly !! Hope I am not the Jonah.
74. You need photo ID. Those who dont have the regular fgorms of photo ID can get a registered voters card from the Electoral Office.
It makes me laugh about identity cards in mainland UK when we’ve had partial ID cards for a long time, called the photgraphic driving licence long before the rest of Uk went down that route.
I think we confuse the Tony legacy with the electoral boost idea. They can be exclusive and they can interlink. I’ve long, as many posters have probably noticed, ranted on about this legacy project idea. Nothing I’ve seen over the last 4 days has suggested otherwise.
Electoral effect, not a lot probably. Effect on Tony as a peacemaker, global standing and love of the party faithful? Greater.
118 – That’s right Peter. The Liberals in Quebec are IIRC not unlike the BC Liberals (although not as right wing). The BC Liberal’s are a coalition of Liberals and Conservatives (against the left-wing NDP) and don’t, so far as I’m aware, have anything to do with the Federal Liberal parties. The Quebec Liberals similarly contain a number of ex-Progressive Conservatives.
It is decades since the Conservatives last won seats in provincial elections in Quebec. There have however been a couple of successful right wing parties such as the Union Nacionale (now defunct) who held power in the fifties and sixties.
The ADQ also have links to the Federal Tories and a number of the Tory Mp’s elected in Quebec in the last general election had formally been members.
The result may make an election more likely as the areas the ADQ did particularly well (in and around Quebec city) are exactly the same places the Tories need to pick up support.
With Miliband’s repeated statements in support of Gordon Brown I am becoming increasingly resigned to the fact that he is unlikely to stand. Shame.
The only scenario I can now foresee is if someone else stands, as has been suggested by others here, a heavyweight, that he then feels able to stand, since there would then be a contest anyway.
What if Reid were to stand? Could this open the door to Miliband?
re 4. This is assuming that the power sharing exectuive takes over on 8th May. We’ve had deadlines before, we’ve even (as most people seem to forget) had a power sharing government in Northern Ireland before and how stable was that? The two constituent parties will now be more extreme than the last attempt.
Surely Mandy could find someway of disposing of or discrediting Iain Wright - Is Wright still turning up at the House of Commons? he hasn’t made much (any?) impact.
Then we could have a Mandy vs Jody election!!
Just the thought has brightened up my day.
re 14. Nick why is it more “solved” now than it was in 1998. Don’t you remember the “historic” handshakes, pictures and photocalls then?
If two stood would need 88 stupid Labour MPs.
Is that very likely!!!
I’m surprised no one has mentioned Peter Hitchen’s hatchet job on Cameron last night. It’s strange most of the real hate for Blair comes from the left, most of the real hate for Cameron comes from the right.
Re 132, Icarus “If two stood would need 88 stupid Labour MPs.
Is that very likely!!! ”
*cough* yes?
109 -
If you look at the voting records you’ll see that a vast majority of Labour MPs actually supported the Iraq War/Public Sector Reforms/Trident etc. Similarly, if you look at the cross tabs on opinion polls you will find that Blair has a far higher approval rating within his own party than Cameron or Ming within theirs.
Obviously when I say that I agree with most Labour MPs 98% of the time I am not saying that this applies to John Cruddas or Dennis Skinner. However, the core of the Labour party is either ‘Brownite’ or ‘Blairite’ (I’m the latter) and the difference between the two wings is minimal.
Just because the Democrats in the US are currently extremely polarised and drifting away from the politcal center doesn’t mean that the same is happening across the Atlantic.
130.”Is Wright still turning up at the House of Commons? he hasn’t made much (any?) impact.”
Icarus, he became PPS and then he resigned as the main occupation of PPSs now seem to resign
133,Or maybe it shows a mathematical symmetry;both political extremes disliking their leader taking a centrist stance.
(It may well be that HItchins is considered ‘too way out’ to represent a real threat to DC’s credibility,although saying the word ‘credibility’ does make me think of an ice cream melting in hot sunshine:wink:)
“It’s strange most of the real hate for Blair comes from the left, most of the real hate for Cameron comes from the right”
Not really strange. If I were a socialist, I’d hate Blair. And people who hate New Labour are unlikely to warm to a Conservative who admires them, and their legacy.
WRT Quebec, ADQ’s success is very encouraging for the Canadian Conservatives. Rather like Scotland, Quebec has lacked a popular right wing party at Provincial level for decades.
WRT Quebec, I once read an interesting article by Mark Steyn in which he quoted a Quebecois priest ” At some point in the 1960s, the people walked out of Church and never came back,” a social change which finished off Union Nationale. It seems quite a few historically Catholic societies swung very heavily leftwards in the Sixties (eg Massachussetts, Catholic parts of Holland and Northern Ireland) and I wonder why that should be so.
RedFlump at 23: It’s not really a career thing - I do the same in local elections and will be pitching in at the same sort of level shortly, and I did the same before I was an MP. I just enjoy working for the cause - it’s as corny as that.
Chris A at 131: A conflict is only solved when you get the main extreme factions accepting each other as partners. 1998 was a good step forward, but it didn’t include the DUP and the IRA had reservations too. What the current agreement does is have mutual acceptance of the democratic acceptability of Sinn Fein and the central role of the DUP, which is what they were both after. Even if they fell out in the near future, that’s something you can’t undo - it’s merely two democratic parties squabbling rather than a possible prelude to renewed armed conflict.
BrandIndex - yes, for those who bet I think that TB is likely to see a good rise this week as well as Jack Straw.
Peter Hitchens, a former Trotskyite, who joined Labour in the 1978 - 83 period and then started on a journey going further and further rightwards, a model of political stability. He was also educated at a pretty posh school,The Leys, which charges £22,000pa for a boarder.
Frankly Cameron neither boasts about nor hides the Eton connection, which is how it should be. It has been known for years and the public are more than aware of it and took into consideration when they made their judgement on him. These class based attacks appear petulantand will not work.
With enemies like Peter Hitchens, David Cameron can afford to smile.
And just as I was giving up hope! Labour slump may spark Miliband challenge at Telegraph online.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2007/03/27/nlabour27.xml
TOAST ALERT******TOAST ALERT*******TOAST ALERT****
Yet again Andrew Neill disgracefully uses facts to puncture New Labour spinners: Martin Salter (Crime), Yvette Cooper (housing).
142 The Daily Torygraph , a really authoritative source for reliable information on Labour Party leadership news .
144. Mark Senior. I did think that too. But it’s not inconceivable.
145 I expect Will herbert or several of his aliases will be along shortly with much more convincing evidence LOL
132 - the same 44 Labour MPs can each nominate as many candidates as they want. If that makes them “stupid”, there only needs to be 44 stupid Labour MPs.
142 - Where were you at 3.24 this morning? - This was on the last thread from Macavity. My reaction to it is still:
Quote from telegraph -
“The comments could be seen as a pitch for a top Cabinet post such as Foreign Secretary in a Brown Cabinet.”…..
“Until recently Mr Miliband told friends he had no intention of standing against Mr Brown. His line was that the Labour Party had a very good “prime minister in waiting.”
However, when asked yesterday to confirm he would not stand, a spokesman for Mr Miliband said: “We do not think it is necessary to say that. He has said what he intends to say.”
Someone seems to be building a story on not much.
I prefer Jackie Ashley’s piece yesterday in the Guardian- Note she spoke to Miliband himself - not “a spokesman” “……Miliband, shows no new enthusiasm for jumping into the ring. He’s a very bright, optimistic and straightforward man and, when I spoke to him yesterday, he sounded deeply irritated about the campaign to draft him. His position hadn’t changed at all, he insisted. He just was not standing.”
141,Bloody hell-I am shocked at Hitchins’s hard-left past-and he belonged to the Labour Party when I would may well have defected to the SDP-words fail me
Anyone see or hear seanT’s outburst at the service …. he’s certainly got that Black and White Minstrels make up off to a tee !! …..
Go seanT ..go !!!!!!!!!!
148. Apologies for missing that Icarus. Remiss of me to have gone to bed so early!
It seems to me Northern Ireland could completely break away from Britain. That could be part of Blair’s legacy: the destruction of the union. It looks like the SNP will take control of Holyrood, because of the Iraq war and unpopularity with Blair, inequities created by devolution. There will be a referendum on independence. Once the ball starts rolling towards a referendum it will be unstoppable and the Lib Dems will likely support it. The pressure will be impossible to control from Westminster and Scotland will break away if the vote is a yes. Inevitably pressure will be enormous from Northern Ireland to also demand a referendum to leave the UK if it sees Scotland moving to independence.
Time for some definitions:
A spokesman for “X” - someone I met in the pub who said he knew “X” really well.
Desperate - e.g. a member of the Labour Party who doesn’t want Gordon Brown as leader.
OT. Can the GOP become a national party again ??
http://www.opinionjournal.com/columnists/bminiter/?id=110009837
153. And Labour are out of power in England for decades - ironic eh ?
152 Mike Wilson. Incorrect on two critical points :
Firstly there is no nationalist majority in Ulster …. indeed a small proportion of SDLP voters would vote to retain the union.
Secondly the SNP are way off winning a majority in Holyrood and as for the Lib Dems they are a federal Unionist party and like the Tories are vehemently against an independent Scotland.
re 140. Nick thanks for that. But hasn’t the settlement just crystallised political apartheid in the province. Imagine all the contenders for the Labour deputy being told that they had to be Catholics whereas all those vying for the leadership spot were told that they had to be protestants - that’s what we’ve now got in NI no Catholic can be first minister and no protestant can be deputy. Why cannot NI have real politics Lab/Lib/Ld even loony UKIP like the rest of us? The problem is a lack of political will from the main parties.
157. “no Catholic can be first minister and no protestant can be deputy. ”
That isnt true. If SF had won most seats at the recent election then Gerry Adams would have been First Minister.
Here on the Mainland, the voters never blamed the UK political parties for the mess in Northern Ireland. I cann