Mori puts the Tories 8% ahead
March 28th, 2007
These are the figures, just published on the Ipsos-Mori website, of the first national political poll by the firm since January. As is usual the headline figures are restricted to those “certain to vote”.
It should be noted that the survey involving 1,983 adults aged 18+ at 176 sampling points across Great Britain was conducted face-to-face on 9-15 March 2007. So the poll is a little bit old and took place before the the last CR, ICM and YouGov surveys.
So we have only had two post-budget voting intention surveys and both pointed in different directions. YouGov showed an increased Tory lead while CR had a reduction.
Compared with the last Mori poll in January the Tories are up 2%, Labour and the Lib Dems are each down 2%.
The pollster does not seek to predict the General Election but rather give a barometer of what current opinion is based on their massive monthly face to face survey. So it does not adopt past vote weighting as is followed by ICM and Populus.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
I saw this story in my local paper and I thought that it was a damning indictment on the state of Britain today that people think they can get away with such crimes. How the Government can continue when these things occur is beyond me.
http://www.thisisthelakedistrict.co.uk/mostpopular.var.1151898.mostviewed.chair_destroyed.php
Such figures on polling day might give the tories an overall majority (18 on electoralcalculus). I’ve never believed that the tories couldn’t win the next election. Labour had a huge swing in ‘97, so why not the reverse.
Despite these encouraging polls, i still think there is a good deal of unease amongst the public about Cameron - he’s all style no substance, we’re bored of spin etc. Makes me think that Labour coud still challenge if they stop shooting themselves in the foot all the time (cash for peerages, the budget etc).
I don’t get how that is not a GE predictor though.
OT. Poor Admiral Penketh will have kittens !!! …. pass the rum !!!
http://www.nypost.com/seven/03282007/postopinion/opedcolumnists/hostage_sailors____britains_impotence_opedcolumnists_arthur_herman.htm?page=1
Frank consider that the Tories will gain many more motivated activists and Labour will lose them as the cllr tally changes after May 3rs, that would make a GE difference, I would guess.
Is that the correct explanation for Mori not weighting by recalled past vote? If so, I’m not convinced that measuring current opinion is fundamentally different from predicting elections.
Isn’t it more that Mori do good old-fashioned quota sampling on demographic grounds (10% women wearing hats, 50% working class men who just happen to have the day off to talk to market researchers in shopping centres, and so on) whereas the phone pollsters do random-ish sampling followed by weighting to simulate quotas?
Iran’s FM is being quoted saying the female british sailor will be released today or tomorrow.
5 Not necessarily , newly elected councillors may have much less time to be a motivated activist as they have to devote more time to dealing with the problems of the people who elected them .
What have #4 and #7 above got to do with this thread? Is there a moderator to this blog?
Interesting poll, but fairly useless as it was pre budget. Why do they bother releasing old news?
I was not impressed by the CR poll, as they are all over the place and this poll provides more comfort, but it woul dbe nice to see some real post budget polls.
Re 9, Not as such no.
Meanwhile …. over at Mrs Dales Dairy the head milk maid is reporting that “Guido” will tonight appear on “Newsnight” to discuss political blogging, the lobby and being a neo con conspiracy cnut !!
Or comment 9 for that matter !!
If you want to take part in a blog as dull as yourself then bugger orf to LabourHome !!
7. There apeears to have been some back tracking by the Iranians in the last 48 hours which is why I nearly had kittens when Tony came out with his ‘different phase’ idea.
What I suspect is that the part of the Iranian regime not privy to the initial action is in catch up mode, hence the statements coming out about everything being o etc.
Having said that, I’ll believe the release when I see it. Delays, deliberate or circumstantial, are not unsusual.
Comment #13…All I’m trying to do is get the debate relevant to the topic. To say “If you want to take part in a blog as dull as yourself then bugger orf to LabourHome !!” is really sad…What on earth makes you think I want to go to ‘labourhome’ - wherever that is.
It’s posters #4 and #7 who are so off-topic that this potentially useful thread gets sucked down too many avenues.
That’s all.
15. Labourhome Paul is a the new name for the old style workhouses isn’t it?
1 - lol, Jimbo!
Sorry their full name should be New Labour New Opportunities Homes.
Re 13, JackW
15 Paul. If you had known PB for any length of time you will have realized that part of its’ charm and strength is that a broad range of political and other topics are discussed within the main thread. It’s one of the reasons why PB is one of the most widely read, enjoyed and respected blogs on the net.
If you really want to see a topic to go of thread wait till we discuus abeyant Jacobite peerages !!
15 - In this forum of exultant loveliness, discussion weaves artfully and seamlessly from forensic examination of the topic at hand to, well to the farther shores of decadence, deviancy and destitution (and that’s just ColinW’s mum). And then back again. And Heaven forbid we should ever Mike Smithson as a ‘moderator’
Ms Nuala on the other hand…
Fret ye not.
Yokel Obviously we must all hope you’re wrong. Paul This is a fairly relaxed site on which people express their views on a wide range of topics. If you want a site that sticks rigidly to one topic this isn’t it. My intervention was very short and you could easily ignore it and move on to the next one.
#20 Jack W:
OK - Got it now, silly me. It’s just a vehicle for people to fart out loud in public. I just missed the point. Doh!
Back to Guido…
(Scandalously O/T) but if Parisian Chris is about…how important will be this story about the ‘riots’ at the Gare du Nord following the detention of a ticket dodger
http://uk.news.yahoo.com/28032007/323/station-riot-puts-french-election-focus-violence.html
At least we had the Poll Tax
22. So do I. There is backtracking going on by the Iranian government its just whether part of it is backtracking or all of it.
Greens are doing quite well… Surprised they havent got into the paper more.
Female Tory MP walks naked into the H of C chamber:
http://news.sky.com/skynews/article/0,,30000-12576884,00.html
Labour MP helps drunk Tory in cover up.
MORI are what MORI are… candid camera, red-eye snapshot artists. However, they do back up the trend that the Tories are pushing the 40% barrier. What I’d love to see would be a large enough sample survey to judge where, geographically, the Conservatives are gaining their votes. As has been said many times, it’s no point doubling majorities, it’s marginals that have to be won, and deep inroads made into the North, Scotland and Wales.
O/T Someone mentioned Sarkozy’s wooing of the French expat vote. Did anyone else notice the Conservative Party ad - on here if my memory is correct - in the past couple of days, urging overseas Brits not to lose their vote. It was a simple animated passport setting out how to ensure you kept your right to vote while working or living abroad. It was carefully apolitical - even linking to the Lab and LDem websites, but was clearly imprinted “published by George Bridges on behalf of the Conservative Party”. Clearly no compacency at the new Millbank. I wonder if they have any breakdown of where overseas voters are registered?
23 Paul. Leaving PB for Guido is surely missing the point !!
OTOH “a vehicle for people to fart out loud in public” is surely a description on a government limo with “Two Jags” aboard.
Missing you already ….
24 Actually, Jack, now that the Courts have decided that lap dancers must pay VAT, there are threats of Pole Tax Riots in certain parts of Soho.
28-I agree, but how many marginals in th North, Scotland, Wales do the Tories really need to win to get a majority? Also, from a previous thread there are plenty of southern seats that are winnable that could compensate for these Northern, Scottish, Weksh seats not won. Indeed, I think they could win a majority with no more than 1, 2, or 3 Scottish seats. Plus devolution would blunt nay suggestion that this is unacceptable…
30 Augustus. Not I. I think you’ll find John O has a more intimate relationship with pole dancers than moi. You can’t move in some Surrey Conservative Clubs for them !
32 - Just me and my plumber from Gdansk.
32 So I have heard tell, Jack. But is it true that Liberal Clubs now have Non Smoking Smoking Rooms?
For the Libdems the poll appears to have been there worst result in at least 5 years. The Menzies Campbell effect at work I wonder.
“I agree, but how many marginals in th North, Scotland, Wales do the Tories really need to win to get a majority?”
45-50.
24- John O
Actually this story is quite important because it shows that a part of the population is now resisting any move from the police against “one of their kind”.
Such protests (with automatic accusation of racism against the police) create violent environments that gangs of looters can use at will for hours…
This moment is important for the campaign because :
- sarkozy was immediately accused by the Left of “creating a climate of hatred”
- he answered that the Left encouraged hatred by systematically choosing to defend ticket dodgers, illegal immigrants and convicts (the man at the origin of the riot is part of each of these categories) against “normal people” and police.
I think on the whole, this is good for le pen (can bash leftist angelism and sarkozy’s “ineffectivity” as Interior minister during the last 5 years), average for sarkozy and quite bad for royal if she seems to side with street gangs against police…
24- John O
Actually this story is quite important because it shows that a part of the population is now resisting any move from the police against “one of their kind”.
Such protests (with automatic accusation of racism against the police) create violent environments that gangs of looters can use at will for hours…
This moment is important for the campaign because :
- sarkozy was immediately accused by the Left of “creating a climate of hatred”
- he answered that the Left encouraged hatred by systematically choosing to defend ticket dodgers, illegal immigrants and convicts (the man at the origin of the riot is part of each of these categories) against “normal people” and police.
I think on the whole, this is good for le pen (can bash leftist angelism and sarkozy’s “ineffectivity” as Interior minister during the last 5 years), average for sarkozy and quite bad for royal if she seems to side with street gangs against police…
37- sorry for double posting…
I don’t think Scottish seats are needed, Northern and Welsh certainly are
40 - with one or two exceptions how likely are the tories to ever win back parliamentary seats in scotland?
33 John O. Not, I hope, your medical plumber John O ??
34 Augustus. Who knows the wierd workings of Yellow Peril Institutions ?? ….. the last time I vetured into the National Liberal Club there was a distinct whiff of tofu, sandal soap and beard clipping and that was coming from the Ladies Powder Room !!
Re:21 “In this forum of exultant loveliness, discussion weaves artfully and seamlessly from forensic examination of the topic at hand to, well to the farther shores of decadence, deviancy and destitution [ ] and then back again” rather good that and well worth repeating!
From Anthony Wells (to use an example), Tories start on 214, and need 111 for a mojaority.
On a quick count, I make these:
North: 25
Scotland:7
Wales: 5
=37, and we think the Tories are on the up in Wales…
Off the top 111, of the next 37, 24 are in the South. These seats include places like Chatham, Hammersmith, Tooting, Warwick to give some of the more obvious seats which could/should be Tory gains. After 147, there are admittedly less obviously Tory seats, but these can be offset by the fact they would surely (?) pick seats up in the North…
37 The Socialists’ response was pretty weaselly.
41 If the Conservatives were to win an overall majority, I imagine they’d gain about half a dozen Scottish seats. Who knows though? Scotland might suddenly do a Quebec.
38 - Chris, Many thanks. I guess the polls will tell us shortly
You dirrrtteee old man
42 -
43 - I remain, sir, your humble and obedient servant
Chris The man in question apparently vaulted the ticket barriers ( what is the french word?) and then assaulted two railway policemen who were trying to apprehend him. There are the inevitable posters on Liberation who claim that the police reinforcements used excessive force. What is indisputable is that within a very short time hundreds of hoodies and others piled in and there was a full scale riot which must have been terrifying for innocent bystanders. No doubt some riot police were extremely vigorous in dealing with the rioters who also got involved in significant looting. The air was full of’ f**k Sarko slogans and even f**k France was heard. Sarko’s line is to support the police; Sego said that of course people had to pay their fares but the riot showed the atmosphere Sarko had created as Minister of Interior. I would have thought that Sego is skating on thin ice because most people will tend to support the police but if there are lots of reports of police brutality it still could swing the other way to some extent. Whatever, this is a potentially important moment in the campaign and we’ll have to await the polls over the next few days to see what effect it has.
Electronic Polling Day problems forecast…
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/6499597.stm
44 By my reckoning, the Conservatives need another 35 or so Northern seats to be in the position they were in in 1992.
40.”I don’t think Scottish seats are needed, Northern certainly are ”
North West in particular: quite a lot of 5-15% Lab majorities there for the tories to try and get
4,7, 9, 13 etc Everyday this blog has 3 or 4 mini threads within the thread. For example anything to do with France
As it is mainly blokes here - I have always seen such multi tasking as sign of evolutionary progress
re 51. I’ve never been sure what sex people are. I even once thought that Andrea was female.
re 52 and I once thought that Snowflake was a woman…and Nuala
Mike S
52. And I thought ChrisD was a gay man. I was unsure if he had been married with some children from that marriage or if he had adopted
And I thought JackW was a Big Issue vendor
Snowflake is a man???
I used to get Sean F and Sean T confused. Not any more, though.
53 That’s not nice, Mike. Just because she’s got a deep voice…
Circumstances change. Who knows what the future holds for the Tories in Scotland? Sometimes these strange little electoral quirks happen. It’s not inconceivable that their fortunes in Scotland may improve as memories of the 80s weaken, especially should the SNP get into power and not be as popular as hoped.
All this said, however, it’s still a very long shot in the next 20-30 years or so, I would have thought, (should the Union still exist then). The Tory Party could still wither and die in Scotland, they need to be doing a better job than they are at the moment. I think some people on CONtinuityIDS suggested the Scottish Tories breaking from the main Conservative Party to create a kind of CDU/CSU situation.
1. Brilliant, Jimbo.
WIndies in …and struggling. No sixes yet.
52. The first time I ever logged on to pb.com I thought Andrea was a Tory woman. The misunderstanding was due to he and Sophia discussing the relative attractiveness of certain Tory MPs.
I used to think that Tony Blair was a socialist
63. I used to think Peter Hitchens was a Trot.
Andrea Hi, On the previous thread someone made a comment about expat votes(a rough breakdown would be good). Has any work ever been done to analyse what effect is has on Elections, has it ever tipped a seat one way or the other hope you dont mind me asking you seem to be most knowledgeable about these things… I’m just interested to know!!
I use to think Benedict W was shameless plugger, still do in fact…!
I thought this was an online collaborative fictional soap opera…
Oh god Snowflake is Ed Balls
61. Lara still in tho Ptp
(he’ll be out next ball now)
69. Or not - WOOOSH ! 7 up…
soddit…another tenner
71. Prob the last one of the game and IG takes both our fivers
RE- Tories needing Scottish MP’s.
Tactically for the Tories not gaining seats in Scotland maybe a good thing. If Labour are sending most of the MP’s to westminister from Scotland and the Tories are upto 40 -50 seats short. Then the West Lothian question really comes into being.
If a defeated Brown voted down a minority tory administration - Cameron could simply point to his mandate from the English people to govern with a majority. In this position to be 40-50 seats short the tories would have outpolled Labour nationally by quite a few percent.
I think Scottish Independence or certainly total self-government is not that far away.
Many people forget that the tories got the popular mandate in England at the last election even if they did not get the seats (90 less than Labour due to the inherirant bias in the electoral system).
73 The Tories already have plenty of Scottish MPs, problem is there are all in English constituencies!
73. Tories 37 short!
2005 Seats Pred Votes Seats
CON 33.24% 211 37.50% 289
LAB 36.21% 346 32.00% 272
LIB 22.65% 64 21.00% 56
Did this on electoral calcus
…Meanwhile in Antigua…
Another 6…
and another wicket…
76. Nice - into profit at last . Poor match in the end tho - pity neither Gayle nor Chanderpaul got going.
http://news.sky.com/skynews/article/0,,30000-1258062,00.html
More scottish dumping on their nearest neighbour!!!
Perhaps this is the Labour parties new election Logo?
Communication Allowance
Would this money not be better spent on kitting the Police or troops properly. It would be better to skip giving MP’s this new communication allowance and give the money to troops & police instead. It comes to something when parents in London have to buy body armour for their kids and military and police personnel are not kitted properly.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/politics/6502331.stm
Another interesting point is does this allowance roll over i.e. An MP in a marginal seat purchases the materials or services in the years leading upto an election but keeps them to one side - for the election? Or they claim the money and keep it to one side till election year. There is all manner of “creative accountancy” they could employ - no wonder Labour want Brown as their leader he is an expert at creative accountancy!!!! Just look at his recent budget!!!
Talk about an unevenness in democracy, Labour Chair blears complains about Tories outspending the Labour incumbent and then Labour uses taxpayer money to protect their vulnerable MP’s. Nothing short of hypocrisy, double standards and cheats! They deprieve money from essential services and waste it on this rubbish!
73. Total rubbish. The Tories did NOT get any sort of mandate.
You are typical of the Tory dissemblers that pollute this site with their ludicrous spinning.
These are the figures for England at the 2005 GE:
Labour 286 0 -37 -37 8,043461 35.4 -6.0
Conservative 194 +32 -3 +29 8,116,005 35.7 +0.5
Lib Dem 47 +12 -5 +7 5,201,286 22.9 +3.6
Respect 1 1 0 1 67,422 0.3 +0.3
IKHH
1 0 0 0 18,739 0.1 0.0
UKIP 0 0 0 0 592,417 2.6 +0.9
Green 0 0 0 0 251,051 1.1 +0.4
BNP 0 0 0 0 189,570 0.8 +0.6
Veritas 0 0 0 0 39,044 0.2 +0.2
Lib 0 0 0 0 17,547 0.1 0.0
Others 0 0 0 0 177,343 0.8
80. Sorry about the weird formatting errors…..
73 Martin Day. “Many people forget that Tories got the popular mandate in England in the last election …..”
They forget because it isn’t true !!
Sorry, what are you trying to prove? That the Tories won more votes than Labour? 35.6% is no more of a mandate than the 36% Labour got UK wide though.
WIndies all out. Eight sixes. £3 down. Bugger.
Oh well, the greyhound will just have to go without food tonite.
65. Maggie Thatcher Fan, sorry, but I didn’t know much about expatriate voters statistics. I thought that the Electoral Commission could have had some stats (at least the number who registered to vote and where), but a search in their website didn’t produce anything interesting. If you’re really interested, you can try and email the Electoral Commission to see if they keep some stats about it.
I found an old Telegraph piece though where it is suggested that the Vale of Glamorgan 1992 restul was determinated by expats (apparently 38 expats voted Tory and swung the seat to them. The final majority was 19 votes) http://www.telegraph.co.uk/global/main.jhtml?xml=/global/2003/09/11/expatvote3.xml
23,583 expats registered to vote in 1997 GE
There’s this piece by Phil Tether about the subject too
http://pa.oxfordjournals.org/cgi/content/citation/47/1/73
Hope this comes out OK….
2005 GE England
Labour 286 8,043461 35.4 -6.0
Conservative 194 8,116,005 35.7 +0.5
Lib Dem 47 5,201,286 22.9 +3.6
Others 2 1,285,765 6.0 +2.4
59. 5 years ago, the Conservatives had been wiped off the Welsh electoral map, to an even lower level than in Scotland. They are now clawing their way back, mainly by establishing a clear Welsh identity instead of a UK unionist one, and using their base in the Welsh Assembly which only exists because of PR.
Ironic really given their opposition to PR, Devolution, and anything Welsh…..
Thank you very much Andrea, most interesting. Given that so many Brits have appeared to move abroad, it will be very interesting to see what effect it might have in a GE. In the past expats tending to be Conservative leaning voters in the “colonies” but that’s all changed with second homes being within reach of many more people.Personally I think the Toroies will be the largest party in the next election come what may, and in many constitiencies the votes could be really close (like Crawley ) and ex pat votes might be quite influential. It’s all supposition of course but interesting nevertheless.
86. Tables never come out very well as posts because all horizontal white space gets shortened to the same size. You’re better off using tabs for the parties with similar lengths e.g. Con / Lab / L.D. Of course, even that doesn’t always work if the other columns have data of differing length, but it does give a start. You can also pad out using hyphens or full stops where that doesn’t confuse.
87 opposition perhaps to Swansea born Heseltine but Llanelli Grammar school old boy Michael Howard did OK in this anything but Welsh party.
In response to comment #6 John L March 28th, 2007 at 2:10 pm:
Ipsos MORI does not weight by recalled past vote, as we do not believe that this is necessary in order to achieve accurate data. In addition, the evidence shows that the public are very poor at recalling how they have voted in the past, so ‘past vote’ responses are often inaccurate.
As Mike points out, our polls take a ‘snapshot’ of public opinion and do not purport to predict the results of future elections. Asking people how they would vote in a general election ‘tomorrow’ (as our question does) cannot accurately predict how they would vote on unknown dates in the future, as political opinions and circumstances are subject to constant change.
To answer your second point, our sampling methodology is based on sampling points. These are ward-sized (4,000-8,000 households), and each sampling point is in a different constituency. The constituencies are chosen to be collectively representative within each region on a range of demographic and social characteristics, including gender, age, class, tenure, car ownership, ethnicity, work status and rurality. Wards within constituencies are chosen to be collectively representative within the region on the same variables. We have separate quotas for each sampling point, on gender, age, work status and tenure, and upon completion of the survey we weight the data to the national population profile.
I hope that this helps to explain how we do set quotas based on a range of demographic characteristics — although none relate to hat-wearing! All of our omnibus (hence voting intention) interviewing occurs in-home, and not in the street or in shopping centres. We conduct interviews during the day, in the evening and on weekends, which allows us to reach a wide range of individuals, and not just those who are at home in the daytime on a weekday.
I hope that this answers your questions. I am happy to discuss further. You may get in touch with me via our website http://www.ipsos-mori.com/political.
Kind regards,
Julia Clark
Head of Political Research
Ipsos MORI Social Research Institute
87. Quite. The Scots Tories got an MP back in 2001, while the Welsh Tories drew a blank until 2005. Howevert They are doing rather more than claw their way back. It is a banker there will be six Tory MPs next time. Good chance of seven, outside chance of eight. This is not Scotland. With good reason the weakness of the Welsh Lib Dems mean’t they never usurped Tories as the Labour alternative in many seats as they did in Scotland.
OT. Obama continues to work New Hampshire :
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0307/3309.html
[92] The Lib Dems are usurpers, are they? I didn’t know they were the Hanoverian party, but it does explain Jack W’s view of them…
Looking at the details of that Mori poll, interested to see that Labour are leading among all respondents 39-37, as opposed to the 8 points behind (33-41) on certain to vote. Since the sample only has 49% certain to vote, could you interpolate that the “not certain to vote” population would be approximately 45 Lab- 33 Con. And since turnout will likely be much higher than 49%, that things are closer than the headline poll suggests and that Nick Palmer’s thesis that Labour’s challenge is to get its vote out rather than win it back may have some merit ?
94. OFGS, figure of speech! My point holds though does it not. The Lib Dems in Scotland displaced the Tories from their rural niche in the Scottish political spectrum in a way the Welsh Lib Dems never did. Bit of an indictment of the Welsh Lib Dems really considering the shellshocked state of the Welsh Tory party for so many years after 97. Max thought the the relative strength of PC/SNP explained the difference. My theory is it is the relative strength of Welsh Lib Dems/Scottish Lib Dems that explains it. Watching them try to blow Swansea West is a case lesson.
Notice the skynews story is temporarily unavailable mmmmm.
I’ve never trusted the certain/not certain adjustment, how do you know, that the certains are certains, anymore than you know the, not certains are not certains. Come the day, the certains might not be certain, and the not be certains, certain: if you follow me!
[96] Come to think of it, they are the Hanoverian Party - didn’t the then Tory leadership go into exile (in France of all places) when George I came to the throne?
I still remember writing an entirely made-up essay on the politics of the reign of Queen Anne in my Oxford entrance exam, well I don’t remember the essay but I do remember the grilling I got at interview.
97. I missed the story when it was linked, but suspect the “unavailable” might be more accurate than the “temporary” in the message.
98. The early-18th Century Tories were somewhat suspect when viewed by the Hanoverians (though of course the Hanoverians were rather suspect when viewed by many Tories). Projecting the Whig / Tory split on to the present party structure doesn’t really work as that first one broke down around 1760/1770 by when the Tories had more or less ceased to exist as a coherant group; the Tory Party that grew out of Pitt the younger’s government was essentially a new creation. There have also been at least four big splits or mergers between parties or factions since, which complicates matters further.
Tessa won the vote in the Commons. But not in the Lords
110. Majority of 24 (I think) in the Commons, but defeated by 3 in the Lords.
Lots of abstantions in the Commons looking at the vote tally
The new poster Paul wasn’t really made welcome earlier on this thread, was he?
102 I suspect he’ll be happier on Guido’s site, Witan.
29. Jack W what a good a idea, I’m fascinated by an ya beyant peerages and don’t get me started on the Lord Great Chamberlainship which can be inherited by some families once per several thousand years. If peers had more legitimate sons the problem would be solved.
Pthe P Maybe, but he was shot down in flames on his first practice flight.
80.
82.
83.
Firstly the Tories did outpoll Labour in England. They got 90 fewer seats.
Secondly, we were talking about the number of Scottish Tory MP’s required for the Tories. I put in some hypothetical figures, which were consideralby lower than the Tories have got in recent polls and considerably higher numbers for the Labour party and LD’s. My case is that there is already an anomaly in England, which may cause serious problems at the next election. I then went on to outline how the strategic merits of this situation would be resolved in my opinion and why it would not matter for the Tories given the Westlothian question. I did not mention the humilating defeat of the Labour / Liberal democrats in the forthcoming elections as outlined by the SNP polling dominance in recent polls.
If i had the time i would look to see if you thought Al Gore won the 2000 election? He certainly won the popular mandate if not the electoral college.
LOL, well he’ll get over it, Witan. Anyway, don’t you think he had a bit of a cheeking comiing onto a well-established site and complaining about the way it is run?
I suspect a Tarquin.
Bloody hell, typing a bit awry this evening. Pre-Andorra stress.
106 -
In post 80 Colin shows the Vote numbers for Lab / Con / Lib and the Con vote number is lower than the Lab vote number. Stating an untruth again doesn’t make it true.
102 Witan. As indicated below I think we can do without the odd Guido-ista !
“OK - Got it now, silly me. It’s just a vehicle for people to fart out loud in public. I just missed the point. Doh!
Back to Guido… ”
by Paul March 28th, 2007 at 3:03 pm
re 89 what about using html table formatting tags like this. Course I’ll look pretty stupid if this doesn’t work
Cell 1Cell 2>
Cell 3Cell 4
and it didn’t
on second thoughts it has - it just hasn’t drawn the border
109. Labour 8,043,461 35.4 -6.0
Conservative 8,116,005 35.7 +0.5
Simple maths, which is higher?
The Tories outpolled Labour in England, they did not get as many seats though. Think it is you who has the problem?
I get it you have been watching one of theose quiz programs, where they try and trick the public and you think it should be transposed to here?
re 101 those who made a killing on Manchester will be glad the bookies paid out - I at least presume they did
re Jimbo Jones @1
Perspective is needed here. If, as it appears, you live in South Lakeland, not only do you have the benefit of the wonderful scenery which we enjoy, but you also live in one of the safest places in the country. I took great delight when our CDPR recently released data which shows that not only do we have the least crime in Cumbria, pushing Eden into second place (I think too many apples taken in Eden), but that in the whole of the North West region there is only one place safer…….somewhere up the Trough of Bowland where they have even more sheep than ourselves.
Perspective, Jimbo……….perspective.
114 Martin. You said @ 73 that the Tories “got the popular mandate in England.”
That is palpably incorrect. They received a little over 35% of the vote. You mean they received a plurality of the vote.
Repeating drivel remains drivel !!
114 - isn’t first past the post rubbish, Martin!
1 & 116 Jimbo & Ian.
It amused me and reminded me of when we moved from the East End to Guildford. The local rag, The Surrey Advertiser, had a local crime section which featured an incident in which ALL FOUR hubcaps were stolen from a car. Wild area, eh? I showed it to the kids and they fell about laughing. All four! The bas**rds!!
117 - I remember asking candidates at a hustings (what are they? do they happen now?) in the 1992 GE: “If your party got 40% of the vote, and a 100 seat majority, would you regard it as a mandate to steamroll through anything you wanted however unpopular.” The Labour candidate more or less said yes. The sitting Tory MP had already left the hustings early, so I also asked how the other candidate thought he would have answered it. Cue a lot of waffle from Labour candidate.
35% is certainly no mandate.
120-Not the first time politicians are less than honest. I remember Paddy Ashdown campaigning in 1997 saying it would be unhealthy in a democracy for the same party to win 5 times in a row. Presumably were the LDs on the cusp of their fifth straight electoral victory he could be wheeled out to proclaim how it would be unhealthy for them to win for the fifth time running. Shaemfully noen of the press pressed him on this piece of hocum.
what is the likeliest outcome of the casino thing now?
104 Chris A. You think the position of the Lord Chamberlain is a problem ?!?!?……. one of Scotland’s Great Officers of State, The Keeper of the Lord Privy Seal of Scotland has remained unfilled since vacated by the Marquees of Breadalbane in 1922 !!!!
Info on Jacobite titles here :
http://www.chivalricorders.org/nobility/jacobite.htm
Completely o/t but I just noticed how favourable boundary changes in Derby are to Labour. Derby South which should have been a prime target wiped into a safe Labour seat again at the stroke of a pen, and Derby North an almost certain Labour hold as Lib Dems and Tories fight again for second place. Is this a correct reading.
122. Kicked into the long grass,
4 “OT. Poor Admiral Penketh will have kittens !!! …. pass the rum !!!
http://www.nypost.com/seven/03282007/postopinion/opedcolumnists/hostage_sailors____britains_impotence_opedcolumnists_arthur_herman.htm?page=1 “
Thanks for the link… Paul at 9 cries for his mummy but the storey is very relevent.
The article puts it very well. Bliar and Brown-nose have committed Britain to War but Slashed the Defence Budget. Labour cuts have taken out more servicemen than the Taliban. Political Correct dictats, Purges and Political Prosecutions have undermined what is left.
Those Sailors & Marines are captive because of Labour.
The people reward Victory at the polls. The people will not reward Needless Deaths, Insecurity & Humiliation.
Just as Victory in the Falklands led to Argentinian Democracy and Landslide for Mrs Thatcher, Labour’s incompetence and impotence will have a similar but opposite effect.
re 122 well as it was an indicative vote then the PAs (1911 and 1949) can’t be used to steamroller it through, so either Tessa can throw a six and try again or the committee be asked to reconsider.
Another table test
Cell 1 Cell 2
Cell 3 Cell 4
4, 126 - Is the author of the NY Post article that same Arthur Herman that wrote ‘The Scottish Enlightenment : The Scots Invention of the Modern World’ ?
126 The NY Post article, is very clear about blaming Labour for the Hostage crisis and the weakening of British defence.
What is interesting, is that the NY Post is owned by Rupert Murdoch.
124 The LIBDEMs have a strong Council base in the new Derby North I think - with the Tories in coalition with Labour on the City Council there is much to go for here for the LIBDEMs. May 3rd may well give some clues.
124-Wasn’t a safe Tory seat created from somewhere?-Mid Derbyshire?
It is worth noting that even with the new boundaries,Labour would have won more seats-this is explained in depth in a link on electoral calculus.
(It is often overlooked that the 92 election result skewed the seat/vote equation in favour of the Tories-although Labour lost the national vote by 7.5% in 1992,they targetted marginals very effectively indeed,gaining 39 seats from the Tories instead of the 19 uniform swing would have yielded.
Indeed,the Tories would have lost their overall majority with a national lead of 6.6% in 1992,and Labour would have only needed a lead of 0.6% for an overall majority of 4.
Source of Data-Butler/Kavanagh Guide to the 1992 GE
132. yes, Peter2, Mid Derbyshire is created taking parts of Derby North, Derbyshire West, Erewash and Amber Valley. It’s a notionally Tory seat (it could have fallen to Lab in 1997 landslide, but the tories should win it easly next time)
131. Any views on May.
131. Hmm. They do but they’re left fighting to re-establish 2nd with the Tories in the North surely meaning Labour are safe next time at least. While in the south the changes surely mean MC can no longer worry about a portillo moment assuming she chooses to stand of course.
132. Yes.
135. Oops “MB” of course.
121 - “I remember Paddy Ashdown campaigning in 1997 saying it would be unhealthy in a democracy for the same party to win 5 times in a row”
I think you rather miss the point here. Wasn’t it some Tory cabinet minister who suggested that overwhelmingly large majorities in the 1980s were unhealthy? (Pym? Heseltine?)
137. Prior.
137 Punter. It was Francis Pym before the 87 election. Mtr T sacked him after the election !!!
138,During the 1983 election campaign Jim Proir said ‘Landslides on the whole do not produce successfull government’-as it turned out,once the Conservative govt had a majority of 144,there were some quite tasty backbench rebellions-Keith Joseph’s plans for tuition fees for university saw 180 backbenchers sign a Early Day Motion opposing this,and obviously there was the Sunday trading defeat (admittedly on a free,unwhipped vote) in 1986
OT. Any odds on McClaren being given a knighthood ….. of the Golden Order of the Eagle of Andorra ??
141,McClaren a knighthood?? There’s more chance of Arthur Scargill and Maggie Thatcher having sexual relations:wink:
Plucky little Andorra
Labour’s poisonous incompetence in foreign and military matters is underlined by the column in today’s Guardian, which shows that, pace Blair’s remarks at the time, government experts believe the Lancet’s reporting of 650,000 dead in Iraq may well be accurate.
650,000. It bears repeating. 650,000.
650,000. Tony Blair, Gordon Brown, Geoff Hoon, Peter Hain. Nick Palmer. 650,000. You voted for 650,000 dead. You denied us an inquiry into 650,000 dead. You did this. You.
650,000 dead. Your doing. Your watch. Your war. Your legacy. 650,000.
We only know this figure has veracity, because of some FoI ferreting. You wouldn’t have guessed it from Labour spinning last year. So at the same time as destroying our ability to defend ourselves, Labour have committed the greatest war crime in British history - and then tried to cover it up.
Labour is beyond inept, they are snakes, skunks, and viral plague rats. Every single one of them. They shouldn’t just resign, they should be fumigated out of the House of Commons, and every seat once occupied by a New Labour MP should be ceremonially burned and replaced, and the ashes buried in a pit of lime.
142. Disturbing mental picture you’ve just provided me with there!
Sorry chaps Pym in ‘83 is the right combination
Murreeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee into Semi-Finals !!!!!!! …… and
Andorra O England Haven’t turned up
I need a third one for an interesting treble !! …. Ah Yes …
seanT says Vote Labour !!
snakes, skunks, and viral plague rats…
Funny, those are the very words that in our house we use for Tories………
146 John W. Yes, it was the 83 election. IIRC He retired at the 87 election.
144 “650,000. Tony Blair, Gordon Brown, Geoff Hoon, Peter Hain. Nick Palmer. 650,000. You voted for 650,000 dead. You denied us an inquiry into 650,000 dead. You did this. You.”
You missed Cameron, Howard and IDS from your list.
I no longer hate the Tories as they’ve been out of office for 10 years (in a strange way I feel a tinsy bit sorry for them),but I would not like to say what I used to call the Tories pre-1997
149. Foreign Sec in 83. Was it Pym or Pryor.
149-But Pym would still have wanted a Tory government. My point about Ashdown is that had the LDs been on a straight fifth win would he have claimed it’d have been bad for democracy. My guess not. Pym was merely saying he thought a LARGE Tory win would be unhelpful. Quite different methinks.
144. “Labour is beyond inept, they are snakes, skunks, and viral plague rats.”
There are some pretty solid grounds for the viral plague rats to sue you for comparing them to the Labour Party, I’d have thought? Even viral plague rats have their standards you know…
150,And every other of the 90odd percent of the Parliamentary Conservative Party- and a side issue,not having a dig at any poster but
(a)How many died on NHS waiting lists
(b)How much ill health ,both physical and mental happened through mass unemployment,poverty in the Tory years?(Quite a few people probably took their own lives)
Its off-limits to say,but there are still people out there who look at the Brighton bomb as a justified act
153 I think that after the fourth win we will probably et around to introducing PR. Maybe earlier, you never know.
147 Jack - How about NI 2 Sweden 1 ?
Yokel must be ecstatic!
152 Punter. Pym was FS in 82/82. Prior was never FS, but he retired in 87 alongside Pym.
157 PtP. Indeed !!
150 “You missed Cameron, Howard and IDS from your list. “
And you missed the point Labour have an absolute majority. Everything that happens, is their fault.
Labour are incompetent, impotent and financially incontinent.
Murdoch has woken up.
155. I have already said, time and again, that the Tory party should hang their heads in shame, and never stop apologising, for supporting this dreadful war. And that includes IDS and Cameron et al. They were wrong and very wrong and they should grovel for the world’s forgiven4ess.
But the fact is, Iraq was a New Labour war, hatched by Blair, spun by Campbell, sold by Brown and Hoon and Hain and the rest of thise venomous crew. This is their doing, they are the government, they decided, they voted, they asked us to trust them on WMD. They must pay the price.
It beggars belief that Blair is strutting around the world making statements of noble contrition about slavery and apologising for this and that and the other medieval incident, when in the last five years his government has illegally started, fought, and lost a hideous war of invasion which has led to the deaths of more than half a million people. And does he apologise about this? Does he f*ck.
160 seanT. So that’s a no to vote Labour then ??
159 Labour have an absolute majority if there is no rebellion. There was a rebellion on Iraq, and so Blair needed Tory support to get it through the house of Commons. He got it.
Sean T I saw this recently ( a link on this site, I think). Very interesting.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/Iraq/Story/0,,915932,00.html
161. lol. You read it right, Mr W.
162. Who F-ing cares? The war was devised by New Labour leaders, they concocted the reasoning, they span the evidence, they sold us the dossiers, they attacked the BBC for doubting them, this awful war is their doing - theirs theirs theirs. In British democracy if a government commits a terrible and appalling error, then the government should, I think, carry the can, not say ‘oh but the opposition voted for our policy, too, so you can’t just blame us’.
Grotesque.
Yes, Tory MPs should be ashamed of their behaviour on Iraq. But Labour ministers should be prosecuted.
155. Obviously you do. Perhaps An Phoblacht have a forum for such perverted justifications of murder.
155 - This is quite one of the most odious postings for a long time. No doubt you admire Alastair Campbell and probably feel the death of Dr David Kelly can be “spun”.
155-Presumably the Holocaust was justified “for some people” because Bolshevism “was invented by Jews”.
155 How much ill health ,both physical and mental happened through mass unemployment,poverty in the Tory years
perhaps we could compare it to the growth in both these things over the last 10 years of Labour government. The new name for unemployment is ‘Incapacity Benefit’ so the number of working age people economically inactive has grown. The degree of social mobility has fallen. Relative and absolute poverty has increased. Youth unemlpoyment has increased (and runs at over 405 inparts of ionner London).
Apart from your odious piece about the Brighton bomb you also have a sick view of poverty if you think the statist nutter in charge of the Treasury has improved things. Socialists like to feel morally good and assume any other view of the world is morally bad. I can’t compete on invective with SeanT but this kind of drivelling idiocy why socialism sets out to do good and only ever does harm.