Which poll will Gordon pick this morning?
March 28th, 2007
Tory CR lead slashed as Populus predicts a Scottish Labour collapse
The first two of three polls which are expected today have produced good and bad news for Labour.
The Indy poll will be seen as a welcome boost for Labour and should ease some of the jitters that have been prompted by the other firms in recent weeks.
From the detailed data it looks as though the main reason for the change is a big reduction in the proportion of Tory voters saying they would be certain to vote.
It will be interesting to compare the CR numbers with the March survey from Ipsos-Mori, due today, which only uses the “certains to vote” in its headline figures. If that pollster has picked up the same trend then we can expect a similar decline in the Tory position.
The Populus poll from Scotland is potentially devastating for Labour and suggests that the SNP is heading for victory in the May 3rd elections for the Edinburgh parliament.
The Times projects that the SNP will win 50 of the 129 seats against 43 for Labour, 18 for the Lib Dems, 17 for the Tories and one for the Greens.
A new betting market on who will be Scotland’s first minister after the election has the SNP leader, Alex Salmond, at 8/11. That looks like a value bet as is the 0.73/1 that’s available on Betfair on the SNP winning most seats is 0.73/1.
Communicate Research, it should be said, has built up a reputation for turbulence and unlike all the other pollsters has found Labour leads twice in the past five months. Its final poll before the last general election predicted an 8% Labour margin against the 3% that actually happened. All the other pollsters were closer including the firm which the Indy then used - NOP which got it spot on.
Mike Smithson
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Chuck Hagel this evening voted with the Democrats against the Bush line - he still hasn’t announced but this suggests he may be positioning himself as the “anti-war, anti-Neocon but-otherwise-right-wing-family-man-low-tax-American Dream” Republican candidate. Worth a few bob, I would have thought…
Presumably the Communicate Research fieldwork/finger-in-the-air done since last month’s poll would have caught the period since the Tories annonced their green flights tax plans? Might be a factor in the decline in Tory “certainty to vote” numbers. If so, likely to be a short-term blip - they won’t be trotting that particular policy out again in a hurry, I am reliably informed…
this is pretty much the CR result in Jan and actually despite the headline moves the average change across CR/YG/ICM/POP since December is CON +0.66 LAB -0.9 LD + 0.16 which looks a lot less dramatic.
Still a LOT of work for tories to do but the Scottish polling looks disastrous for LAB and not the sort of thing to steady nerves
this is pretty much the CR result in Jan and actually despite the headline moves the average change across CR/YG/ICM/POP since December is CON +0.66 LAB -0.9 LD + 0.16 which looks a lot less dramatic.
Still a LOT of work for tories to do but the Scottish polling looks disastrous for LAB and not the sort of thing to steady nerves
apologies for double post - Radio 4 is headlining the Scottish polling and thus helps cement the idea of ‘failing Labour’. The BBC doing Steve Hilton’s work! not often that happens.
CAPTION PICTURE COMPETITION :
Gordon (Thought Bubble) :
“This MacDonald’s Double Bogey with fries isn’t a patch on my own nose candy ! “
BTW …. who gets up at this unearthly hour normally
…. back to bed …..
Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
When you consider that only two parties can possible gain control of the Scotish Paliament, SNP and Labour, surely the findings of the Times poll should bring about a somewhat unusual betting market from the traditional bookmakers. How about something like this.
SNP 5/6
Labour 6/5
Others combined seats 8/1
Marquee Mark - dont worry everyone else will make sure the electorate keep hearing about the Tories quarter-baked tax the tourist plans.
8 - £1200 @ 5/6 please
Why the collapse in the projected number of Green MSP’s?
11 - Mark there is IIRC a fairly thin line in terms of %age of the vote that means the Greens end up with 1 seat rather than 6 or 7.
I excpect thet’ll do better than 1. Maybe 3 or 4 but possibly not as well as last time. I also think that a couple of ‘others’ will get in as well.
11. Mark Goodair
We will have to wait until Populus publish the detailed datasheets (The Times do not give a figure for the Greens). However, it is extremely easy for the Greens to lose nearly every single seat just by dropping 1-2% of their support. Only one of their seats is “safe” - the Lothians list seat of Robin Harper.
Conversely, it is also extremely difficult for them to gain more than two seats. We can predict with a high degree of certainty that the Greens will have between 1 and 9 seats. Any less, or more, would require a momentous shift in support.
Is anyone else having problems with the Scottish seat predictor? I wanted to check The Times’ seat distribution projections, but the predictor has gone haywire! Even if you make the list votes add up to exactly 100% it still says “6% over-allocated” - weird…
http://www.scotlandvotes.com/
11 - it’s to do with “thresholds” in AMS; once your vote falls below a certain level you end up getting 0 seats in each region as opposed to 1.
11 - Because all the Green lists seats are right on the margin of the quota required , roughly 7% of the vote would give them 7 seats , 6% 6 seats and 5% only 1 seat .
I would be a bit cautious of the Populus Scottish poll as they do not have much experience of polling in what seems a tricky country to get a good sample but ICM’s regular Scottish poll should be out at the weekend and clarify things .
Communicate not really worth discussing .
That ScotlandVotes.com website is very user-unfriendly, but after trawling over their miniscule predictor map, I have worked out which constituencies they predict will change hands with this new Populus/Times data:
SNP gain from Lab:
Western Isles
Aberdeen Central
Dundee West
Stirling
Falkirk East
Dunfermline West
Central Fife
Kirkcaldy (please note Gordon!)
Cumbernauld and Kilsyth
Clydebank and Milngavie
East Kilbride
West Renfrewshire
Paisley North
Paisley South
Glasgow Govan
Kilmarnock and Loudon
Clydesdale
Linlithgow
Livingston
Edinburgh East and Musselburgh
Edinburgh North and Leith
Edinburgh Central
Tweeddale Ettrick and Lauderdale - SNP gain from Lib Dem
Galloway and Upper Nithsdale - SNP gain from Con
Falkirk West - SNP gain from Ind (Canavan standing down)
For the sake of argument, let us assume that the SNP manage to form a (minority) government in Scotland, and the Conservatives win narrowly in a General election in 2009/20010.
The SNP have promised to hold a referendum on independence at the end of the term of the Scottish Parliament (2011). This would be the ideal scenario for them. A Tory government in Westminster with only a handful of seats north of the border would add weight to their argument that only the Scots should run Scotland. (Though of course they also seem quite happy to let Brussels still have a major say in their affairs!)
After years of one-sided Labour dominance, Politics is getting more interesting, thank God.
16. What type of method do they use?
I would have supposed that with UNS Glasgow Kelvin would have fallen before than Kirkcaldy
16-But no Gordon! A win Aberdeen C, would mean no list sits for the SNP probably so no Alec Salmond at Holyrood. Is that bet on him being First Minister really that good? Who would be the SNP’s default candidate if Salmond does not make it to Holyrood? There may be real value there!
16 Stuart Dickson. Oh … I don’t think so.
Another seat calculator about as much use as 11 Englishmen and a round leather article against a tiny Franco-Spanish enclave in the Pyrenees !!
19-Apologies for the pidgin English!
Further to 16.
It is worth noting that even with Labour dropping over 7% on the constituency vote, neither the Lib Dems nor the Tories would capitalise whatsoever.
The Tories would still miss their key targets of Dumfries, Eastwood, Stirling and West Renfrewshire; and the Lib Dems would still miss their key targets of Edinburgh Central, Aberdeen Central, Greenock & Inverclyde, Strathkelvin & Bearsden and Dunfermline West.
Probably the Indy poll was taken after Peter Hitchen’s hatchet job on Dave, if that is the case, arise Lord Hitchens of Spleen!!
As for the Scots thing, agree with 17, no political party should think any part of the UK is their ‘natural territory’ Labour in the north, or Tories in the south, always give the b*****s a good kicking now and then, keeps ‘em on their toes.
“Compact of Hexham” time, when the English Tories realise that Unionism doesn’t actually work too well for them electorally, and that a lot of Tory support is, sort of, English nationalist with no great objection to Scottish independence?
19. Peter2. With this poll, I think they should get 1 list seat even with 2 FPTP gains. FPTP seats in NE Scotland would be 6 SNP and 3 LD. He should get in with the 6th list seat.
18. Andrea
My god!! You are right again!!! When do you ever get it wrong?
Yes, Now that I examine their tiny, tiny wee map once again, I see that you are correct: they also predict Glasgow Kelvin going SNP (from Lab) too.
19.
This is very old hat. If you study the AMS electoral system, it is actually perfectly feasible for Salmond to pick up the 6th, 7th or 8th North East list seat, even if the SNP gain Aberdeen C and Dundee W constituency seats.
19. “Who would be the SNP’s default candidate if Salmond does not make it to Holyrood?”
I suppose Nicola Sturgeon
26 Andrea was wrong about something a few nights back. CAused my computer to crash.
26. Stuart, I recalled Kelvin was something like a 15% majority. Then I checked Kirkcaldy was a 22% majority.
Leaving aside uniform swing and co, seats like Kelvin with a 2003 strong SSP vote up for grap are probably better chances for SNP than seats with similar majorities but a less strong SSP.
29. PtP, there’s no need to recall it everyday
Re 16
I’m reminded of that 1970’s Gilbert O’Sullivan classic: “I’ll believe when I see it”.
Simon Heffer is a big Peter Hain fan..
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jhtml?xml=/opinion/2007/03/28/do2801.xml
O/T France Ipsos tracking poll
sarkozy 30.5 (-0.5)
royal 25 (-0.5)
bayrou 18.5 (=)
le pen 13 (=)
second round sarkozy 53 royal 47 (=)
Almost no change to my poll of polls then :
sarkozy 28,08 royal 25,58 le pen 12,75 bayrou 20,00
Interesting article this morning in “Le canard enchaîné” (french equivalent of Private eye) about pollsters’ methods of treatment of raw data.
According to them the raw data obtained by all pollsters is on average this : sarkozy around 35 %, royal behind bayrou and le pen between 5 and 7%.
The “shy lepenist” phenomenon is still the central problem for every French pollster : in a recent Ipsos poll, only 5.1% admitted to have voted for the National front in 2004. The real far-right vote (including smallish non-lepenist parties) was 16.6%!
Other major problem : the polls published ignore overseas territories with around 1.5 million electors and French expatriates (around 800.000 votes).
Glasgow Kelvin would be an amazing seat for the SNP to gain. It:
- contains all 3 of Glasgow’s universities (Glasgow, Strathclyde and Caledonian);
- encompasses the entire city centre and West End;
- is the successor seat to Glasgow Hillhead (of Roy Jenkins famous SDP gain from the Tories - yes, you read correctly, there was a Tory seat in Glasgow as recently as 1982!)
- was held by a certain George Galloway from 1987-2005
Re 16. Health warning for all Scottish polls. There is a huge regional and sub regional variation in which parties are in contention in different parts of the country. This makes seat predicitors in Scotlands notoriously fickle.
This means that there could be a massive swing to SNP in Central, Glasgow, South of Scotland, and West of Scotland, but less of one in Highland and Islands or Lothians and seat predictors based on the Times poll would not show it. Is there any regional data yet.
The numbers of SNP gains may be right, but I doubt the Edinburgh predictions. Livingston and Linlithgow seems on the money though.
I suspect there will be a lot of variation from constituency to constituency. For instance the SNP are under a lot of pressure from the LibDems in Inverness East - their vote collapsed in 2005 when the LibDems gained the Westminster seat from Labour.
Likewise the Tory position in Galloway and Upper Nithsdale is probably stronger than the 99 vote majority indicates. I would also be very surprised if the SNP took Tweeddale, Ettrick & Lauderdale - they have very little base in terms of local govt representation.
On the other hand, Argyll & Bute might be a lot more vulnerable than it seems. Although the LibDem MSP had quite a good majority last time, the SNP “won” it on the regional list vote.
35.
Sorry, I’m mixing up Holyrood and Westminster seats! (easily done)
Glasgow Kelvin is currently held by Pauline McNeill MSP, a Labour backbencher.
Whoops-a-daisy (I’d insert a blushy face if I knew how)
33: Right, UKIP fan Simon Heffer and the Sun don’t want us to select Peter Hain. Too left-wing, too nasty to grammar schools, too tough in pushing for devolved government. I’m shocked! Labour supporters please draw appropriate conclusions.
On topic: I don’t follow Scottish affairs closely, but isn’t it generally true that polls and by-elections have both shown us doing worse in Scotland than elsewhere, compared with previous elections? Naturally there are exceptions (like that Notts by-election last week) but overall? If so, it’s possible that both polls show the trend correctly.
Thnaks for the article Mike, I can’t see a CR poll on its own providing any comofort. Lets see what the IPSOS Mori poll produces. That said ICM and YouGov are still my most trusted.
Interesting numbers in Scotland. Has anyone done a poll for Wales?
‘The Indy poll will be seen as a welcome boost for Labour and should ease some of the jitters that have been prompted by the other firms in recent weeks’
Relying on corrective polls by second rate pollsters for a boost suggests the bunker mentality Labour has is deepening.
34 Chris. So most of these French polls are “le cobblers” !!
Sounds like my ARSE should expand its Paris operation ?!?!
re various. You could always use this seat predictor - very user friendly, which will tell you the winner in every FPTP seat and every region.
http://www.cabg05071.pwp.blueyonder.co.uk/ARADiv5/Scottish_predictor.xls
40. Benedict, it seems us in Wales are not worthy of a poll! Why doesn’t the BBC or the Western Mail commission one? It would prove quite interesting reading, because I don’t think Plaid are going to do as well as the SNP, that’s for sure!
37-Inverness East-I think there are 2 non-coterminous seats here between Holyrood and Westminster. 2003 results indicate a SNP-Labour marginal, though presumably not now. However, you have a point, realtively small electorates in some of these seats mean swings can be quite large.
43. Chris A - you are a star! That ScotlandVotes.com website is total sh*t*. But now I can play with your superior one
it’s just occurred to me that I’m getting almost as shameless as Benedict here!
36.”There is a huge regional and sub regional variation in which parties are in contention in different parts of the country. This makes seat predicitors in Scotlands notoriously fickle.”
A voice from lothian, you are spot on with that observation and it is going to make it an exciting roller coaster of an election on the day.
38.”Sorry, I’m mixing up Holyrood and Westminster seats! (easily done)” Stuart I do it all the time, I mix up Wendy Alexander and Nicola Sturgeon all the time too because their debating style can be similar to a fault! :blush:
45. Peter2
You are quite correct! There is a massive boundary difference between the Westminster and Holyrood seats. Namely, the Holyrood seat encompasses Lochaber (the Lib Dems are very weak in Fort William, Mallaig, Kinlochleven etc), but excludes a large chunk of urban western Inverness (which is strong Lib Dem territory - Charlie Kennedy’s old base).
#41 - More to the point that fact that any poll that shows them on only 31% should be a “boost” only goes to show the depths to which they have recently fallen.
Chris from Paris your point about the poll leaving out overseas voters and the DOMTOM is very interesting. I would have thought that Sarko would do well with the overseas vote; better off voters by and large. On the other hand wouldn’t the Socialists do better in Reunion, Guadeloupe and Martinique? On your figures the latter are much more numerous. I suppose a lot depends on turnout in both categories. As far as IPSOS polls are concerned, it’s only fair to say that, at the moment, Sarko is polling under 30% in, I think, every other poll with a much smaller margin between he and Sego( in one case a dead heat). In the second round almost every poll for well over a month shows Sarko beating Sego, usually comfortably.
Re 44, redflump, You may be right abour Plaid, but we just don’t know! I woudl quite like to see a poll though!
48. ChrisD
I think that Nicola Sturgeon should actually take what I assume you intended to be an insult as a compliment! In my humble opinion (as a strong opponent of the Labour Party) Wendy Alexander (the Rt Hon Douglas Alexander MPs’ sister) is the brightest and best personality in the Labour section of the Holrood “hemicycle”.
When Joke McDonnell (thanks for the larfs Patricia Hewitt!) falls on his sgian dubh then Labour would be nuts to turn to anyone other than Wendy.
49.Stuart, I would not rule out Charles Kennedy’s personal popularity in those area’s. His plight over the Libdem leadership gained a lot of sympathy in some area’s up there.
53. Stuart, it was not intended as an insult but simple a personal observation which has often made me mix them up.
In 2001 the Scottish polls predicted that Charles Kennedy would lose his seat.
Nobody should vote for a bloke who is orange in colour, a coward and not fit to represent anyone, even Welsh people. He voted for the war, voted against an inquiry into the war and then came out and said it was all a load of rubbish and he thought that from the start! Just to ‘appeal’ to left wing labour voters.
People like him must be purged from politics and I think that, on ethical grounds, punters should only profit on Hain short positions. He makes Blears looks sincere.
55. ChrisD
Mmmm… but they do not really look, or sound, alike, do they? Not unless you have a “all Chinese people look alike” attitude towards wee Glesga bachles
**** PB Exclusive **** JNN/ARSE Poll of Polls **** PB Exclusive ****
JNN is reporting exclusively to PB a new ARSE poll of polls comprising MORI, CR, YouGov, Populus and ICM :
Con 38.4% .. Lab 31.6% .. LibDem 18% .. Others 12%.
The PISSED Baxter/Wells Index with added SOAMES weighting and unwind gives :
Con 304 seats .. Lab 267 .. LibDem 48 .. Others 31.
Conservatives 22 seats short of a majority.
…………………………..
Sources :
JNN - Jacobite News Network
ARSE - Anonymous Random Selection of Electors
PISSED - Political Intelligence Seat Selector Election Determinator
54. and 56.
But you must acknowledge that there is a world of difference between the plight of the Lib Dems at Westminster and Holyrood. They had a free ride during the Westminster GE 2005; whereas for Holyrood GE 2007 they have massive problems:
- 8 years of failure in the Scottish Executive coalition with Labour
- Nicol Stephen is just not of the calibre of either Kennedy or Campbell, in fact he has proved surprisingly weak
- almost zero media coverage, which cannot be countered “on-the-ground” because they have by far the smallest number of members of the 4 big Scottish parties
Nat posters yesterday suggested a couple of big shocks which might be under the radar at the moment. One was Coatbridge and Chryston where a ‘Save Monklands hospital’ candidate is apparently doing very well. Another is Hamilton South where Michael McGlyn is standing as an Independent and might split the vote enough to allow an unlikely SNP victory. Also one poster doubted that the independent MSP in Strathkelvin and Bearsden would lose to Labour in the present climate. One other point. One poster suggested that Labour’s relatively better position in the list vote might be because some people wrongly think it’s a second choice vote. Any thoughts Stuart?
Ralph at 41 - “Relying on corrective polls by second rate pollsters for a boost suggests the bunker mentality Labour has is deepening.”
Surely this is Mike Smithsons statement, I dont see the Labour Party stating this!
61.”Also one poster doubted that the independent MSP in Strathkelvin and Bearsden would lose to Labour in the present climate”
I don’t think models are predicting S&B to go Labour anyway
If the SNP polls as strongly as Populus is suggesting, I cannot see Alex Salmond failing to win the Gordon Constituency. He has a decent vote base on which to build, and the electorate are unlikely to turn down the opportunity to be represnted by Scotland’s First Minister.
As for sympathy for Charles Kennedy I would agree that it exists, but I see no reason for the electorate to turn away from voting SNP because of this-it was his own party who deprived him of the leadership after all.
In Tweedale, Ettrick and Lauderdale the SNP candidate is one of very few SNP candidates who had a swing in her favour in 2003. The lack of a council powerbase is not as significant in the Scottish Border areas as elsewhere because for many decades elections have often been competion between independents. I regard this as even more likely to be an SNP gain than Galloway and Upper Nithsdale where the SNP have been trending downwards over recent elections (though I still think they will just scrape in).
Andrea Is Strathkelvin the one independent suggested by the poll yesterday?
44,52 Plaid are not going to do as well as SNP, but they are still set for healthy gains - as are Conservatives (although how any conservative gain could be described as healthy I dont know…). Labour are in a lot of trouble and LDs are just knowhere to be seen.
But I was told by a man in the pub that there is a WM poll next week….anybody know anything???
60. Stuart, I would not underestimate the Libdem vote in that area whatever their performance in Holyrood or Westminster. I think that part of Scotland is now one of their strongest heartlands, just as Moray has become one of the SNP’s strongest bases over the last 20 years.
Totally agree with your assessment of Nicol Stephen who is IMHO the weakest of the party leaders in Holyrood. Voter turnout and tactical voting will be the key on election day. It could just deliver the shock result that some still think is impossible because of labour’s consistently strong performance in Scotland over the last 20 years.
65. Blue Moon. well, it depends on what method The Times used to get the seats breakdown.
If you use Chris A’s predictor at 43, you can leave the Indy vote unchanged. The model works even if there’s an over-estimation, so it wouldn’t create problems.
If the SNP are ever going to win independence, then this is surely the election, and the next five or ten years is the crucial time.
There is a perfect storm developing that aids them. The natural and Uionist party of government in Scotland - Labour - is historically unpopular because of the squalid mistake of Iraq, cash-for-peerages, and the general malaise of an ageing government. Plus there is the Trident issue, which impacts particularly in Scotland.
Also: the SNP probably have the most capable politician in Scotland in Alex Salmond; he faces a lot of pygmies by comparison.
Then there is oil, reaching record prices. And the West Lothian Question, unsolved by Labour’s botched Devolution, is now coming back to haunt the left. Likewise, the Tories are dead in Scotland, and the economic circumstances are benign, which paradoxically makes it possible for people to think of risks like independence.
But these unique circumstances will not last. The latest results in Quebec show that secession is not inevitable even in the most rebellious of provinces.
In five or ten years time the oil will have dwindled that much more. Salmond and the SNP will be shopsoiled by governing. Labour’s present unpopularity will have been cleansed by electoral defeat. The economic circs may be very different. Iraq will, one hopes, be a memory, likewise the Trident decision. Someone will come up with a solution to the WLQ.
So this is the moment for the SNP and Scottish secessionists. They need to win this election big, and then get a referendum, of some clever kind, won within their first term of office, to prepare the way for eventual independence. The wind will never blow so kindly again.
That’s my tuppen’orth anyway!
61. blue moon
No, sorry, I have no insider info whatsoever about those seats! - and even if I did, I wouldn’t discuss it here
Personally, I hate chicken-counting, and I sometimes wish that my fellow SNP posters and commenters would keep the euphoria knob turned down a good bit. There is nothing more off-putting to electors than activists hooting like American talk-show audiences (please note Mark Senior and your back-up team of Lib Dem hooters).
Plus, if you look at the polls, there is scant evidence of a “Labour-collapse” (this Populus/Times poll actually has them up a smidgin on the list vote!) It may yet happen though, unless they can turn things around very quickly, cos they are running out of time. It could go any way in my opinion, but there does seem to be a growing possibility of a significant SNP breakthrough in the key central belt this year.
On this “second-choice” issue, I think it is overplayed too: voters aren’t as daft as politicians like to think - please note whoever it is that writes Gordon Brown’s cringe-inducing “Britishness” speaches - lord preserve us…
SNP economic policy thrown into disaray by academic report :
http://www.theherald.co.uk/politics/news/display.var.1289792.0.0.php
70. spelling - “speeches”
Is the Labour party unpopular in Scotland because of any particular policy/delivery problems within the Scottish coalition, or is it more to do with disillusion with Blair/New Labour/Iraq.
#71
I do not think anyone in Scotland is much impressed by this sort of report nowadays for at least 2 reasons:
* The producers of any such reports are always found to have deep links to the Labour Party.
* The deception by the Labour Party in the 1970s over the value of the oil (revealed via the freedom of information legislation) was so preposterous that Labour analysis now of Scottish economy has minimal credibility.
Also, Gordon Brown during his Budget speech tried to downplay the value of North Sea Oil but it is now clear that even on his revised figures £55 billion will go to the Treasury over the next 6 years as against £34 billion over the last 6.
69 Sean T - Will you please stop writing sense. It does my head in.
Whatever next - a mistake from Andrea?
Re:49. I certainly acknowledge that Inverness East etc has different boundaries from the Westminster seat. But the LibDems would have won the Holyrood seat comfortably on the basis of the 2005 figures. It’s also worth pointing out that the Tory vote is bound to be squeezed from the 17% they got in 2003 with Mary Scanlon not standing - they are very likely to go LibDem as they did in 05. Also the LibDems are flooding the seat with leaflets etc - no evidence of a lack of resources. I’m also not convinced that Fort William, Mallaig etc are weak for the LibDems - they have at least one councillor down there and Charles Kennedy is the MP for that area.
Asso note the Lochardil by-election in Inverness recently. A very easy win for the LibDems - SNP miles behind.
I’m not saying Fergus Ewing won’t hang on but he has a real fight on his hands.
73.
I think that Labour’s current difficulties in their North British fiefdom has much older roots: basically, they have not lost a single election - Westminster, Holyrood, Euro, or overall council - since the 1950’s (if you exclude their hiccup in the 1979 Euros).
They have been in constant power in Scotland for half a century, and quite frankly the populace are revolting! I cannot think of another democratic European country with such an entrenched Establishment (except Wales). Only totalitarian regimes, or the absolute monarchy of Liechtenstein can surpass it.
69.SeanT I agree with most of your analysis, but we seem to be missing the other interesting pointer which the populus poll has shown.
“A majority of Scots (52 per cent) are in favour of more devolved powers for their Parliament in Edinburgh and only just over one in four (27 per cent) backs full independence.”
I think that a good result for the SNP in the elections in Scotland is more about Labour’s unpopularity rather than a desire for independence. They would lose a referendum in the short term, in fact they have to prove themselves if they become the largest party and that would in IMHO take at least one parliament before they could successfully try and make their case.
[69][75] But you’ll notice, PtP, that when dear old Sean does write sense, he thinks it’s only worth tuppence!
74 Tom R. What are Prof Mcleans links to the Labour Party …. or was that just a cheap smear ??
Re 64. The LibDems suffered some reverses at the last council elections but it was not the SNP that gained but the Conservatives who now have the highest number of seats in the Borders region, excluding Independents. Also worth noting that David Mundell - Scotland’s only Tory MP - now represents Tweeddale.
Tweeddale Ettrick & Lauderdale will be very interesting indeed with three MSPs contesting the seat: Jeremy Purves (sitting LibDem), Christine Grahame for the SNP and Derek Brownlee for the Tories.
Any one of them could win - probably by a very narrow margin.
It would be interesting to see which seats the various parties are concentrating their resources in in the last month of the campaign.
For ex is SNP concentrating in “real” marginal or are they campaigning hard in “outside” chances too (for outside chances I meant those 15-20% majorities that could fall if recent polls are right)? Is Labour still pulling resources into ultra-marginals or are they moving into the next tranche of seats leaving ultra marginals at their destiny?
#69
I agree that your analysis is excellent. I make a couple of points, however.
The biggest difference in my view between Quebec and Scotland is that the existence of the EU with 27 states (14 of them with populations less than Scotland)gives the SNP a ready answer to the “you are cutting yourself off/where will you go type of opposition to Scottish independence.
My other point is the obvious one that saying that “… The wind will never blow so kindly again…” cannot ever be said with any certainty in the world of politics, can it?
82. Andrea
Now that is a very good question! Unforunately for all us gossipers we are never going to get an objective answer to that query. Just hearsay I am afraid. But I too would love to know exactly where Labour and the Lib Dems are actually pouring their (rather meagre) resources. It will be in far fewer seats than they actually let on.
It is pretty obvious where the Tories are concentrating (eg. they seem to have given up all hope in Perth) and there is a risk that the SNP could over-stretch as more and more of their targets become viable
80 - I have no idea about Prof Mclean’s connections, if any, but it was an IPPR seminar and they have in the past been somewhat boastful of their links with and access to new Labour ministers and their advisors.
18 - I think that list says more about the failure of seat predictors in general than anything else.
It is fanciful in the extreme to imagine 3 SNP MSPs in Edinburgh for example.
But I suppose anything that encourages a sense of hubris in the Nats has to be welcomed…
Jack - he does seem to have been a councillor on Tyne and Wear county council - doesnt say which party but - the odds would be on Labour I think.
Could you give us an example of an expensive smear?
Jack. Is your pile up for sale?
http://www.savills.co.uk/residentialSearch/aadd8a15-58b7-46d0-b87d-7aafa57dedfc-0-1-0-viewDetailsSubmit/residentialSearch/propertyDetail.aspx?pID=99202
87/88 Icarus/peter j. Comment 88 is an example of an expensive smear !!
51- blue moon
Regarding expatriates, Sarkozy is sure to get a majority of their votes in the second round. In the first round they tend to give very low scores to le pen and have stronger scores for “big” candidates. Th sarkozy campaign is courting these voters who are much more numerous this time : their number more than double since 2002, from less than 400.000 to 800.000.
As for overseas territory, the situation is less clearcut.
New Caledonia and French polynesia are usually more right-wing.
Reunion (the biggest)is in general voting more for big candidates and has a leftist regional administration. But its leader (supposedly communist) is now openly campaigning for sarkozy… Reunion should then give big scores to both royal and sarkozy in the first round. in the second round, royal could get the majority.
french Caribbean islands, Guadeloupe and Martinique, are trickier to analyse. they usually produced very low turnout(around 35% in 2002) because the result was often known in Paris before the vote closed there. To solve this, they will (as smallish french guyana)vote on saturday 21 april this year.
re 68. I think that in getting my numbers out, I assumed that the left over others in the regional vote would split SSP 1%, Greens 5%, others 1%
84. It is pretty obvious where the Tories are concentrating (eg. they seem to have given up all hope in Perth)
Is it? I presume in gaining Dumfries, Stirling and Eastwood. Also in holding Galloway & Upper Nithsdale. But I would suspect effort will be going into Perth and North Tayside, if only to maximise the number of council seats they win.
It is worth remembering that the change to STV will transform the political landscape at council level. This could have quite significant implications for the Scottish political parties, breaking Labour’s dominance in the central belt to the advantage of the SNP, and leading to a wider spread of LibDem and Conservative councillors.
PR for Holyrood helped save the Tories from oblivion in 1999, STV may provide them with essential building blocks for rebuilding their organisation at grass roots level. Time will tell.
When do nominations close for the Holyrood elections? I wonder if there will be any surprise candidates and/or surprise retirements.
Andrea I’m not sure how many resources Labour can push or pull. There comes a point when you pull the lever and nothing happens as the Tories found out in the late 1990s. I was surprised at Stuart’s kindness towards Labour; a score of only a little over a quarter of the vote in Scotland would be dreadful. This is, of course, just one poll but it’s a very bad one for Labour and suggests they will do little better in their former heartland than they will in England and Wales. Interestingly the Scotsman is happy to give coverage to the Communicate Research poll but I saw nothing about the Populus poll which seems pretty extraordinary. Is the Scotsman a very pro Labour newspaper?
94 I would suggest Pro Establishment rather than Pro Labour per se.
94. No. The Scotsman has been talking up the SNP for months. The Herald seems to provide a more balanced coverage.
Augustus presumably the establishment in Scotland is largely Labour, though. Don’t you think it strange that they don’t give the Populus poll at least as much coverage as the Communicate research poll?
94.”Andrea I’m not sure how many resources Labour can push or pull. There comes a point when you pull the lever and nothing happens as the Tories found out in the late 1990s”
well, I often wondered what the tories did in 1997 campaign. Did they stay in marginals like Edmonton (lost by a landslide anyway) or did they move in safer seats like Enfield Southgate to try and save them?
“but I saw nothing about the Populus poll which seems pretty extraordinary. ”
maybe it’s because they’ve their ICM out soon
Andrea fair point!
#80 Jack W
I do not do smears Jack-of any type.
Per Professor McClean’s CV:
“Member and Group Leader Oxford City Council 1982-6
Tyne & Wear Metropolitan Coucil 1973-9 (Chairman Economic Development Committee 1976-8)”
Off topic but, what are the odds on the casino bill going down today? Can you bet on it?
Sounds like Brown wouldn’t be too upset.
79. 2p or not 2p?
62: ‘Surely this is Mike Smithsons statement, I dont see the Labour Party stating this!’
It was Mike’s report on how Labour will see this poll dear.
At the risk of repeating myself….
Anyone who doubts that the CR poll is rogue ought to consider the Independent’s own analysis of the poll:
“The Tories are ahead in the South-east, the Midlands and Northern England but Labour holds the advantage in Scotland, Wales and the South-west.”
The Tories ahead in the North of England? Labour ahead in the South West? Does anyone really find that credible? I think not.
#101 - To be honest, if Brown was culpable for killing off the Casino Bill, that would go a little way in repairing his reputation.
105. which may also make it a risk free rebelion, as the new Brownite regime wouldn’t hold it against you.
The Institute of Public Policy Research is New Labour’s accademia arm. Among its trustees are Lord Kinnock, Lord Eatwell, Lady Williams, Chai Patel, Nicki Gavron, Lord Puttnam and a constellation of dons/ politicos with social democratic and Blairite Labour links.
#104 - Further to this, though, the article also says that:
“..sample was also weighted by how respondents said they had voted in the 2005 general election.”
I thought CR were notable as being one of the firms that didn’t weight by past vote recall. Any more info on whether this is the latest in their series of methodology changes?
108 - Quite. I’m no psephologist, but does it not seem rather peculiar for a polling firm to constantly be changing their methodology from one month to the next? That suggests to me that even CR themselves doubt the veracity of their results.
109 AHM - O/T You enquired on an earlier post about my political preferences. I did reply but some time after you posted. Did you pick it up?
100 Tom R. 1980’s !!!!!!!!!!!
Twenty years ago Rik was in the SDP and the LibDems were a bunch of deceased multi-coloured birds !
Anything more recent ???
104 AHM. Young Matlock … out before Midnight ??
104 - CR = Completely Random, courtesy of their computer called ERNIE.
110 - Thank you, Peter - I did. You’re a Labourite, as I suspected. What a pity.
111 - Indeed, Jack. Mrs Matlock is away again!
113 AHM. I thought as much !! …. Mrs Jack W is away too. I’ll ascertain on her return if her route took her anywhere near Sarratt !!
PMQs …. Stewart Jackson !!!! What a tie !!!!
#111 Jack W
That is a very weak response
You say “anything more recent”. I think we have just seen it-as I suggested-in the article you quoted.
There are no grounds at all for thinking McLean’s politics have changed.
“… pointless search for the Environment Secretary’s backbone” — lol.
never mind jackson’s tie - what’s going on with his hair! let it go man - you’re bald!
94. blue moon
Actually, in the 4-party system which we have in Scotland, a quarter of the vote ain’t too bad! Fredrik Reinfeldt’s Moderate Party won last year’s Swedish GE on only 26.2% of the vote (their 3 Alliance partners got 7.9%, 7.5% and 6.6% too). Remember, the UK is highly unusual in having the “winning” party gather over 40% of the vote. In most European countries, which have true multi-party politics, it is normal for big parties to gain support in the 10’s, 20’s or 30’s. Indeed an actual vote of 38% for the SNP would raise a lot of eyebrows in mainland Europe, where it is unusual for a winning party to get close to 40%.
The Scotsman is a Tory paper, but they just do not have any pro-Tory material to run, so they like to give both Labour and the SNP a bashing. They love the Union.
113 Well, I prefer to think of myself as a Centreist, but whatever. Not a lot of difference these days.
120. I was about to observe you seem a floating voter that could possibly be converted to the Tories
119. Who thinks the winning party at the next UK General Election will get over 40%? Or even 35%?
122 - who thinks stewart jackson’s hair will cover less than 40% of his head by the next election?
121 - Peter is a fine chap and my post at 113 was not in any way intended to be belittling, but he has already said he was going to vote for Harry Cohen at the next election.
well, I often wondered what the tories did in 1997 campaign. Did they stay in marginals like Edmonton (lost by a landslide anyway) or did they move in safer seats like Enfield Southgate to try and save them?”
My understanding is that Edmonton was written off, so no one outside Edmonton did anything much there. Southgate was thought to be safe, so quite a few people from Southgate helped out in Enfield North, which was thought to be the marginal.
In the last week, people suddenly woke up to the fact that Southgate wasn’t safe.
57. I hope that is a joke about the Welsh and not another sign of the increasing in-your-face English nationalism.
As regards there being no polls on the Welsh elections, i think it just shows the lack of interest in them compared to Scotland.
Labour won’t do well (incumbency, Blair etc), though not sure who’ll pick up the support. Plaid’s socialist stance might give them a chance but alienate some of their natural supporters, Cameron will probably make a big effort so he has some concrete signs of progress (after all, Hague and IDS made gains in council elections - which shows their predictability) and the Lib Dems are hard to judge. Lembit is their leader in Wales, but he is dividing opinion to say the least!
125 Mind you, I doubt if the level of activity in a given constituency in a general election counts for as much as hard work in a given ward in a local election. I’m pretty sure Southgate would have been lost however many people had worked there in the 1997 campaign.
126. In your face nationalism is just nationalism…all depends where it comes from doesn’t it?
Yes, I too am sick and tired of seeing the “new” seanT writing posts that I completely agree with. He is confusing me, and I dont like it at all! Sean, get back to your old ways of writing bile, please… :S
re 34, Andrea, you seem to have you finger pretty much on the pulse. Has any work been done on how ex pat votes play in an election. Are they significant? have they ever decided anything? / Thanks
125,127An ITN documentary,that telescoped 1997 GE night into one hour,with a preview,interviewed Michael Portillo-you may recall on the final weekend an Observer poll put the Tories just 4% ahead in Enfield Southgate-Portillo says ‘he took that seriously’-and on polling day,there was no evidence of Tory activity whatever-it sounds like to Portillo ,on a constitency level,his defeat was not that big a shock.(His defeat has been voted the 3rd favourite TV moment of all time in a TV poll:wink:)
129 It’s since he became a Dad, MBoy. His brain has gone spongy.
Having looked carefully through what bets are on offer I cannot find one for ‘who will be the next Labour party prime minister? ‘; is there the opportunity to bet on this?
78. I agree that the plurality of Scots would, probably, rather vote for increased autonomy as against outright independence, but clever Alex Salmond isn’t going to offer this choice. Indeed he isn’t going to ask for immediate secession.
If you look at the wording of his proposed referendum, it deftly asks whether the Scottish government should have powers to negotiate some kind of seperation etc etc…. nicely blurring and soft-pedalling the issue.
The SNP would surely get a No if they asked the people to vote for total and immediate independence. But they could easily get a Yes to the more devious referendum Salmond has in mind, and if they gain that they will have the power to seek true independence if they ever win another election in Scotland.
Salmond is a wily fox. Someone please shoot him before he dismembers the country. I speak metaphorically of course.
Re 122, Rod, I certainly think they will get over 35% and am fairly certain they will get over 40%
116 Tom R. I’ve tried to post Prof Mclean’s impressive cv but it’s been banned !!
He left the Labour party in the mid 80’s and was Alliance group leader in Oxford later that decade. Since which time he seems to have been a non party political social democrat …. so he’d fit into todays liberal Conservatives, NuLab, LibDems, Plaid and the SNP !!
“Line of the day: Cameron said Blair should use his last period as First Lord of the Treasury to cut tax on small business, instead of spending his time in a “pointless search for the environment secretary’s backbone”.
Ha ha ha!
100, 116, Actually Iain MacLean was elected to Oxford City Council as a SDP/Liberal Alliance candidate. I know because the b*gger just beat me
(If only JacoMilano electoral consultants had been around then, the whole sweep of human history would have been unending sunlit uplands)
121 & 124 Test & AHM
It’s unlikely, Test, though not inconceivable. I’ve only ever voted Conservative once and that was for the type of Councillor who should be supported regardless of Party. If Ken Clarke had become Tory Leader, I would have seriously considered switching but I perfectly well understand why he was rejected. (What’s the point of winning my vote if you lose two others?)
Harry Cohen gets the nod this time. His anti-Iraq voting record swings it. Otherwise it would probably have been the LDs. The Tories don’t really enter the equation for me here in Wanstead and Leyton but I must just say a word in favour of Cameron.
I applaud his attempts to reposition his Party. As for being policy-lite, that strikes me as perfectly reasonable and sensible at this stage of the electoral cycle. There will be plenty of hard fights to come, more within his own Party than with Labour and the LDs, I suspect.
Thank you both for your kind remarks. It’s civilised discussion with the likes of you two that makes the site such a pleasure.
Stuart. Labour got 44% in the 2001 GE. I think Labour supporters will be absolutely dejected if they go below 30% in the Parliamentary elections this year. If the SNP can get 38% then so can Labour. This is a really bad poll, albeit just a poll. Alex Salmond raised a laugh when he said he wanted to engage in consensus with the PM. Blair had said that the election in Scotland was going ‘excellently’. I agree, said Salmond! Incidentally one SNP poster last night suggested you were only putting up council candidates in carefully selected wards in Glasgow. Surely, although it’s an outside bet, you can’t afford to miss the chance of picking up enough wards in surprising places with the result that Glasgow goes NOC. It would be an historic defeat for Labour. In an election like this there may well be wards that fall on enormous swings with very little effort from yourselves and against all expectations. Don’t you have to make sure you make every conceivable gain you can?
March Ipsos-MORI poll:
Con 41
Lab 33
LD 17
Oth 9
(certain to vote)
Con 37
Lab 39
LD 16
Oth 8
Sorry - the second set of figures is all naming a party
138 John O. Indeed the combination of Jacobite dirty tricks and Andrea’s computer tricks would have swept all before them !
Western civilization would have been transformed and Nick Soames would have been a male catwalk model and seanT would have been LibDem diversity spokes-person !!
Ahh 41%- Much more like it.
Fieldwork was March 9-15 though - before the budget!
145 - Ah, spoke to soon I see !!
134. seanT “… clever Alex Salmond isn’t going to offer this choice”
Errr… just like “clever Tony Blair” did not offer the Scottish electorate the very obvious 3rd choice of independence on the 97 referendum ballot paper?
What is very notable about those Populus/Times figures is how low a return to the status quo ante is!! Scottish devolution, and therefore the West Lothian Question, is here to stay. So anyone who truly wants to maintain the Union had better start advocating a realistic West Lothian Answer. I can see only one feasible solution:
- true, symetrical federalism, ie. not the regionalisation of England, à la Lib Dems, but the establishment of a devolved English Parliament with identical powers to the Scottish one; and granting the NAW and NIA the exact same powers
If, on the other hand, you just let the WLQ, and therefore English nationalism, gather momentum, then the Union is finished. That is why I love it when people like Nick Palmer MP and Jack W pooh pooh the WLQ. The stench of Unionist complacency is the first whiff of sweet victory for those many people who have devoted their lives to Scots regaining our sovereignty.
Do MORI not weight the figures by past vote recall? (refering to the second set)
143 -
But we shouldn’t confuse ’sunlit uplands’ with Dante’s Inferno 
A quite important methodological note on the Ipsos-MORI website for those of us who take an interest in these things:
As we are still running methodological tests while merging the Ipsos and MORI field operations, we are not publishing a full Political Monitor in March, but to maintain the trend on voting intention, we are releasing the voting intention results from a parallel omnibus survey we run (Capibus, a face-to-face in-home survey). Question wording and weighting are identical to the Political Monitor voting intention surveys.
129. Lol. Maybe my recent trip to Jerusalem has made me a better person.
But you want some bile? OK, I was thinking today about those people who oppose Trident and nuclear weapons, and what putrid piles of moral vomit they are.
Because. Look at it this way. Imagine we gave up our nuclear weapons. Then imagine, as is very very conceivable indeed, that Iran gets nuclear weapons and the missiles to deliver them to the UK.
Then imagine that Iran threatens us with nuclear attack unless we do something (renounce Israel or kick out Jews or whatever). What would we do? We’d have given up our nukes. Maybe we could righteously wave our CND placards at Tehran and say, Nuke us if you like, but at least we will die knowing that we were morally superior to people on the right and Bruce Kent is with us.
Or maybe we wouldn’t do that. No, maybe we would prefer to live. In which case we would have to grovel to the Americans - or the French! - and ask them to protect us from Iran. So we would be even more in hock to America than we are now.
This is the truth behind the posturing of the CND, anti-Trident left. They are shiny little pustules of smugness who haven’t really thought through their policies because they don’t actually care about anyone else, they just care about feeling good, morally.
You know, when I was a kid I used to go “worming” to make a buck. After an evening of rain you would dig up thousands of worms that were writhing about on people’s lawns, then you would sell the worms to fishermen.
I still remember the sight of the old tin bath full of slimy, grey, wriggling old worms, mired in their own peculiar grease. That to me is the perfect image of the people who make up the British left.
Is that better for bile?
151 - Nah, revving up, but still only 70% on the bilio-meter.