Are public sector workers deserting Labour?
March 29th, 2007
What behind these big shifts in opinion?
I’ve just come across some fascinating data on the Ipsos-Mori website which might prove to be highly significant at the next election.
For as the charts show there has been a significant move by public sector workers away from Labour in a relatively short time. If they don’t return that could present a big challenge for Gordon Brown.
For after the big expansion of the public sector jobs under Gordon’s management of the economy one would have expected that Labour would have been the main beneficiary. If this Ipsos-Mori data is correct then that is not the case.
A particular challenge is that while the public sector has been expanded so too have the public’s expectations. The case that higher taxes should be levied for better public services has generally been accepted - even now by the Tory leadership if not the party. The problem is that this has led to greater pressure in all sorts of ways on those who work in the public services and maybe this is fuelling anti-government sentiment.
It should be noted that the charts relate to Mori “all naming a party” poll numbers - not the “100% certain to vote” figures that make up the firm’s headline numbers. Given the latter are normally less favourable for Labour then this could add to the concerns.
Mike Smithson
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Yes this is a big issue. I remember a senior trade unionist telling me that less than half of their members voted Labour at the last general election. I hadn’t seen any data on this until now. Thanks for this Mike, though it doesn’t make pretty reading.
The sight of junior doctors cheering Cameron was very instructive
Mike, it is a big issue, and if you want to see why it is happening you just have to read a few blogs written by public servents.
Many had thought that the previous Conservative government was so bad that anything would be better. In particular they thought “things can only get better”
It appears now that many who have been working in the public services like health and education now think that the Conservatives were better.
That is a massive slice out of the payroll vote.
Does anyone have any thoughts about what could have happened in October and November 06 to get such a spike in support for Labour among public sector workers?
2. That was when I thought Cameron is a dead cert to win the election, his speech was empty populist fluff but the crod seemed to like it!
4 I have trouble remembering this morning’s breakfast!
2. I wouldn’t read too much into this. Junior doctors I’ve met are pretty much Conservative through and through and have always been. Many of their parents are doctors and are well off and in my experience they’re also more likely to have gone to private school. DoH made a pigs ear of the junior doctors contracts and they’re right to be angry. But I’d be more worried if it were nurses and healthcare workers cheering Cameron on.
Somewhat OT I see the good government fo Iran is putting the planned release of one of the captured sailors in doubt.
I wonder how long they do this hopes up, hopes down business?
I’m not sure the single poll finding justifies the interpretation, any more than an article in November on “Public service workers flock to Labour” would really have been sound. My subjective impression is that teachers are rather less cheesed off with us than a couple of years ago (when performance-related pay was causing waves), but NHS staff much more because of all the turbulence around deficits etc. There are also several long-running disputes with PCS members over civil service pay, conditions and pensions, and it all contributes to the lower Labour certainty to vote.
But I don’t know many public servants who think the Tories are really the answer, and insofar as the Tory lead is built on improving their standing in this sector, they’d be dead unwise to rely on it when it comes to a General Election.
I think the Tories have most certainly made inroads when it comes to employees of the Health Service. Whether through luck or deliberate strategy, they seem to have settled into a good position (the mood music is all about standing up for the employees against cuts, which seems to imply the Cameroons are actually *on the side* of the worker).
This kind of thing would have been unthinkable pre-2005, because even if a Tory had stood up and said these kinds of things, people would inevitably have come back with “well, they’re only saying it to get into power, and they’ll mess things up like they did before 1997,” etc.
In a way I think it’s a combination of three things - time (the memories of the 90s are fading), Cameron (love him or loathe him he does ‘caring’ very well) and disillusionment with Labour’s tinkering and the possibility of cuts. The only thing left for the Tories is to build trust - they’re not fully there yet but give it a year or so and they might be.
I tend not to think there’s been as big a shift in other public sector professions - haven’t seen any sign that education is moving in favour of the Tories.
3. “It appears now that many who have been working in the public services like health and education now think that the Conservatives were better.”
Yes - I am sure that there are some who genuinely think that way (and they may well be perfectly correct) - for now. But when an election campaign hots up, I’m sure that these same people will factor in the possibility that a change of government may mean that they fall victim to cutbacks.
The threat of cutbacks would be a double whammy to this group of people. It endangers their own personal futures, and cuts back on the services that they support, making them even less effective.
Of course, the Conservatives would argue that they were only cutting wastage and making everything more efficient, but that is a very difficult argument to sell. Plus we have heard it all before. Politicians always claim to be able to make vast economies to fund extra service / tax cuts or whatever.
This issue needs extremely sensitive handling by the Conservatives.
8. Hell of a result for Northern Ireland last night Yokel. Just shows what a good motivated and well organised team and achieve.
re 4. The spike in November came when the united forces of Murdoch - Times, Sun, NOTW and Sunday Times - relentlessly piled into Cameron after he had supported the move for an inquiry into Iraq. As I recall it was quite frightening- the papers were producing almost the same words and the same arguments.
It was as though Rupert had spoken and Cameron had to be punished and was a reminder to Labour, too, of what could happen to them as well.
13. Interesting. Thanks.
8. Iran has engaged in a hostile act that in previous times would rightly have been considered an act of war. The government’s response has been craven. The entire Iranian embassy staff should have been expelled as soon as Iran refused to release the captives, and there should have been immediate talks with the US administration and our EU partners with a view to imposing economic sanctions. Our supine behaviour will only encourage Iran in its regional bully-boy ambitions and especially its interference in Iraq.
The important thing about poll trends is if they show the Tories making inroads in non-traditional constituencies. They’ll need to win with groups of people, and in places, thought of as Labour strongholds. Public sector workers is one of those and this chart isn’t one poll but goes back a while. Surely it makes Labour jumpy?
re 13. I should add that Murdoch’s actions provoked a rare pro-Cameron comment from Roger.
15. I’m sure they trembled when the Foreign Office told them their behaviour was “unacceptable.”
17. But maybe it was Roger’s pro-Cameron comment that caused the spike?!
Just watched Guido make an arse of himself on Newsnight. I would have thought bearing in mind the conditions he imposed on them to appear they must have considered ‘empty chairing’ him!
Re 11, Gladstone, “This issue needs extremely sensitive handling by the Conservatives.”
I agree.
From the last Thread. Thanks for the help with HTML bold and italics are a good start but there must be a full list of codes somewhere.
I dont mind Jack W being a Geek but just remember I am the only Greek on PB.com.
On topic - The Lib Dems have a real oportunity with public sector workers - They really believe in them, not just to win an election, and actually trust schools etc to manage their own affairs - real devolution.
18. Perhaps if we forced them to go on a weekend camping trip with the woeful Beckett they may be inclinded to change their stance…
23. Should be caravaning, of course. What was I thinking!
OT. Hilary retains an edge in New Hampshire :
http://blog.washingtonpost.com/thefix/2007/03/hillarys_new_hampshire_edge.html
………………..
22 Icarus. Just beware of geeks bearing gifts !
Hang on a minute - The US siezed a number of our citizens and held them for years.
According to the chap on Today this morning, once in the open sea the border is not clearly defined. All sounds like a cock up that should have defused by everyone apologising and setting up a commission to define the boundaries.
22. It looks like that up to May 06 the Lib Dems benefitted from any loss in support for Labour, but since then it has been the Tories taking the lions share of protest.
22 Icarus. (And anyone else curious about HTML)
Try here . . . .
http://www.web-source.net/html_codes_chart.htm
More HTML than you’ll ever need.
28 Gladstone. Oh joy !!!!!
OT. Some in the GOP fear a 2008 election meltdown :
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0307/3353.html
One reason public sector workers might be moving right is mass immigration and asylum. I have a few youngish friends in London’s front line public sector - nurses and teachers - and they see the true effects of Labour’s chaotic, mendacious, and free-for-all immigration policy.
I’m sure this has an effect. These people are impeccably liberal, but get ‘em drunk and they come out with remarks about certain immigrants, and their impact on hospitals and schools, that would definitely not find favour in Islington supper parties.
Ah yes the Conservatives always handle these Middle Eastern problems so much better. There was the superb way they handled the murder of Yvonne Fletcher, letting her murderer get away scott free. Then there was the terrorist Leila Khaled, they let her go scott free as well, yes they are so much better at these things.
26. Only a Lib Dem could compare members of the British armed forces with people who took up arms to fight against their own country and have zero loyalty to it.
The recent announcements on public sector wage freezes could have something to do with it.
http://society.guardian.co.uk/publicfinances/story/0,,2024921,00.html for example.
With inflation nearing 4% it’s hardly surprising.
30,After two desperately close victories in the Elctoral College(I won’t re-count 2000),surely the Democratic Party can win the few extra votes,states-and a few more to eke out a victory-I foresee a Democrat swearing the oath of office on January 20th 2009
for those of you who don’t remember
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leila_Khaled
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yvonne_Fletcher
If anyone was in any doubt about the budget, take it from the Treasury Madarins:
(Bloomberg 28 March 2007) — Mark Neale, a senior civil servant at the U.K. Treasury, suggested that Chancellor of the Exchequer Gordon Brown’s decision to abolish the lowest tax bracket will leave 4 million people of Britain’s poorest people worse off.
30. They need Giuliani.
35-And my watching the rseults on the night of 4th November 2008,cheering-I still cherish the memory of watching Bill’s Clinton’s victory night on 3rd November 1992-I am not ashamed to admit that when Clinton made his acceptance speech at Little Rock,Arkansas,I cried for joy
37,Usually by PENCE per week
39 Patrick. Not holding a cigar at the time were you ??
41,No Jack,a cup of tea and a ciggie-phew,I’m doing well to remember 14 1/2 years ago:wink:
First, a suggestion to MORI - I think it would be better to include voluntary sector workers with the public sector: most of the voluntary sector is, in effect, a government contractor & in some cases, such as charitable clinics, follows public sector pay & conditions pretty much exactly.
More generally, Brown’s expectation that the public sector can make annual 3% efficiency savings - if he means it - represents in practice at least as swingeing an axe as anything the Tories tried on. It was always integral to the NuLab project that they should distance themselves from public sector workers - as witness Blair’s claim that if one of his sons became a state school headmaster he would consider himself to have failed as a father.
It would be interesting to have reports from Scots/Welsh Peebies as to whether public sector workers are seen as natural supporters of the SNP/PC - I would’ve thought so.
As I suggested in a guest article a long time ago now, the interests of public sector workers are now significantly different to everyone else’s, and short of the emergence of the equivalent of Canada’s New Democratic Party (a.k.a. Old-Labour-rising-from-the-grave) they will go on being the whipping boys (and girls) of all the parties.
To be fair to NuLab, their desire to reduce the number of local authorities is perfectly sensible: unfortunately every previous re-organization has increased them, due to severance payments etc, in the short term.
40 Patrick How many pence per week? The loss of how many pence does it take to cause someone on a below average salary to find life moving from difficult to intolerable?
A Labour budget takes from the poor.
Back to the lead thread:
Looking at the Lib Dem numbers from Nov-06 to Mar-07 on both public and private sector workers they increase (from 18% to 21% and 20% to 22% respectively). Comparing this to the ‘Certain to Vote’ numbers (also on the Mori website) the Lib Dems Drop from 20% to 17%. As far as I can see this means one of three things;
1) There has been a massive drop in Lib Dem support amongst those not in either catagory (presumably the unemployed, retired, etc.)
2) The increase in those naming any party has come concurrent with a decrease in certainty to vote for Lib Dems (ie there are now more people naming the Libs, but are much less certain to vote for them)
3) I’ve completely mis-read the data and some-one will no doubt point out the error of my ways very shortly.
Assuming 3) is wrong, 2) seems much more likely than 1) which would suggest that a ‘Get the Vote Out’ strategy for the Libs could work unexpected wonders… I would be fascinated by other peoples thoughts / corrections.
38 HenryG. The GOP certainly need someone from the liberal wing of the party not unduly tainted with Iraq otherwise states like Penn, Ohio and West Virginia and even some western states will tilt Democrat. Even Hilary might win !!
42 Patrick. I believe you.
[43] Last para should read “desire to reduce costs by reducing the number…” Apologies.
[40] Tripe. Abolishing the 10p tax rate = tax increase of 10p on £2000/year = £200 = £4/week.
34 and 37. Do you remember when Tony Blair said education is the best economic policy you can have?
Looks like he has failed that test anyway.
35. The only problem being that both of these losses were to Bush. Not an intelligent, influential Republican statesman. Not a unifying figure. Bush. If the Dems can’t beat him, they’d better sit and cross their fingers that another divisive figure gets the nomination and go for a “one more heave” mentality. Hopefully the pendulum will swing back to them. It has been eight years, after all, and the Clinton administration is still remembered relatively warmly, I believe.
I don’t profess to know a lot about US politics, but I was always of the impression that the candidate makes or breaks a party’s chances rather than there being this unswerving loyalty to party name.
46 I’ve been looking for some trading opportunities in the Rep/Dem nomination races. Does anyone have any view on the prices quoted on http://www.intrade.com as a comparison versus Betfair and others?
On intrade Thompson is very close to Romney already!
31. Yes I’d agree. A couple of years ago, my cousin’s wife, a newly trained teacher went to stay with my parents and hated working in a school in the S. East, as half the class couldn’t or could barely speak English and were very badly behaved. She couldn’t wait to get back to the valleys. It can’t be fun if you find yourself in the front line.
40,The large majority of peopel earning c.£12 -17K/annum will be receiving benefit of one hue or t’other,be it Tax Creds,whatever.I do take this issue seriously,BTW-furthermore it may be appropriate to not pre-empt measures a Brown premiership implements to help this sector of society
If the budget does disadvantage the lower paid will that not have an effect on many public and non-profit sector workers. Charities do not usually pay well, as I know to my cost, and despite the boastings from the government many at the bottom of the NHS heap are not earning massive salaries.
So the budget squeezes people and the government squeezes the organisations. A double whammy, indeed.
People are always trying to post tabular data. This is a test to see if we can find a suitable template.
TEST
Jacobites storm from nowhere to win General Election.
Queen abdicates. Heirs of Stewart Dynasty measure up Buck House for curtains.
Party
% vote
Conservative
15
Labour
15
LibDem
15
Jacobite
55
54. err…….no…..not yet. Sorry.
52 Patrick so you are saying the Treasury is wrong when its senior staff admit that the budget will ” leave 4 million people of Britain’s poorest people worse off.”
I am with the Treasury Mandarin on this one.
Re 52, Patrick, The majority of single people between !2K and 17K a year will not get a penny from WTC, besides which the take up of WTC is circa 20%. (See my blog for more)
54 Gladstone. Jacobite score a tad low IMO !
57: you have a blog?? you couldnt remind us of what the address is, could you?
56,57,OK,point taken-BUT even allowing for this ,over the period 1997-2007,the poorest have done a lot better than twixt 1987-1997-IMHO,one of the most callous acts under John Major was the aboiltion of Wages Councils (even Mrs.T would not have countenanced that)-some people ended up,under threat of loss of benefit,taking work at £2/hour-and that made me spit blood in fury
20. I have also just watched Guido’s bizarre appearance on Newsnight. He came across as a bit of a plonker. Paxo and Michael White turned him over big time. Quite why he did this anonymous stuff is puzzling. I think many will find it hard to take him so seriously now.
54. were you trying to do this?
[disclaimer - this mark-up might not be allowed by the comments engine… in which case I might look a bit silly :)]
Jacobites storm from nowhere to win General Election.
Queen abdicates. Heirs of Stewart Dynasty measure up Buck House for curtains.
Party
% vote
Conservative
15
Labour
15
Lib Dem
15
Jacobite
55
5. Are you a Raveonettes fan perchance?
Purely circumstantial but a couple of teacher friends of mine who have previously rated themselves as “staunch Labour” are planning to vote Tory next time round.
re 57, Gaz, as it happens I do. I don’t like to talk about it much though. I like to think of it as my little secret! But as you ask it is here
http://aconservatives.blogspot.com/
Re my 63, I did of course mean 59 Oops.!
Public sector workers haven’t moved right - but Labour has. No wonder Brown wants a coronation. He would get trashed in the trade union sector in the electoral college. And no wonder after recent pronouncments on pay.
60. ‘that made me spit blood in fury’
While an attempt to kill dozens of people by bombing a hotel apparently didn’t. Your moral sense seem more than a little warped, my friend.
61. I have never taken Guido seriously since he boasted of making money on hearing of the death of John Smith.
60 but how angry are you that both relative and absolute poverty are now worse than in 1997? How angry are you that youth unemployment is higher than 1997? Aren’t you spitting blood that the savings ratio is now only 3.7%? No, I thought not.
If you are so concerned for the poor why back a Chancellor who has provided tax breaks for the rich whilst skewering the low paid? Socialism does more harm to lower paid people in order to provide a self-satisfied glow to the bien-pensants than anything else. If you were concerned for the poor you would want people to improve their own lives. You don’t, you want to hand out enough state funds to trap them in poverty - it’s what socialists do; it’s unthinking, just like your Brighton bomb comment
67. I guess thats what you call a win-win.
The verdict’s in, and it’s a grim one for David Cameron: he broke Parliament’s rules, he raised money wrongly, he’s had to apologise “unreservedly” and he has had to make multiple promises about his future behaviour.
If a Labour minister had been so severely rebuked, do you think Conservative bloggers and MPs would by any chance be spitting blood and calling for his or her resignation? But now that it is someone in their own party, let’s see …
On, and twenty-six Conservative MPs have also been told to stop using Parliamentary resources for their own party fundraising.
http://politics.guardian.co.uk/conservatives/story/0,,2045652,00.html
69. Surely the big winner from John Smith’s untimely demise was Labour. The day it happened, an acquaintance of mine said ‘you realise we have just lost the next general election’. How wrong he was.
70 ColinW. Yawn ……ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
70. yes it was an error but it comes out only a day after MPs voted to receive £10′000 a year extra to send out glossy newsletters to constituents.
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/news/article-23390683-details/MPs%20award%20themselves%20an%20extra%20%C3%BD%C3%BD10k%20each%20in%20expenses/article.do
72. Note to ColinW’s Mum - Colin must try harder. His attempts to produce good mud slinging material for the local Focus leaflet have a disappointing tendency to fall flat, petering out in an orgy of futile teeth gnashing and blood spitting which can be quite off putting for the older members of the electorate.
70. Worse than using no 11 Downing Street for “charity” events ?
46 Jack Pennsylvania already votes Democratic in Presidential elections, although I take your point on Ohio. If the Republicans lose Ohio (and the 06 elections in Ohio were disastrous for the GOP) its over, unless they can win another big blue state. This is Rudy’s strong suit - that people argue he might be able to put New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania or even California into play where no other Republican could. If strong polling data comes out showing him carrying one of the above states I think he’ll get the nomination.
70 “We are grateful to Mr Cameron for his speedy and full acceptance of the commissioner’s recommendation, and for his apology to the House.
“We consider that this, and the undertakings he has given in his written evidence to us that he will ensure there is no repetition, adequately dispose of this matter.”
move along now please nothing to see here…. you could pop over to the charity commsisioners and ask them when charities were empowered to fund their own political party because the party’s original funder is in prison
7 Henry G: I would disagree. I believe there is traditionally a high percentage of support for Lab & in particular the LDs from Doctors. I seem to recall specific polls prior to recent GEs published in the BMJ (although I can’t be bothered to check). Similarly true for teachers.
And following that particular point the LD support amongst the Public Sector is at a particular low and for the very first time below Private Sector voters. I wonder why?
77. Are the LDs ever going to pay back that stolen loot ?
68 - read some fact before spouting off in an absurd way
1997-2004 is the longest period of declining poverty recorded in the UK (although admittedly the figures only go back to 1961).
http://www.ifs.org.uk/events.php?event_id=239
Doesn’t anyone understand there was always be poverty because its relative?
81. will always..mixing my tenses. I was so poor and deprived Inever got the proper education..because I never listened, but that wasn’t my fault, I was deprived….
80 err… might I suggest you take your own advice.
“Relative poverty has risen across the whole population for the first time since Labour came to power, with child poverty also rising for the first time in six years” from the site you advise me to visit.
you also stop in 2004 but we’re in 2007 now dear, do keep up. Socialism traps people into poverty - not on purpose but because it requires people to prostrate themselves before the mighty State.
Patrick’s point was that the poor have done better under Labour than between 1987-97 (odd selection of dates but there you go). It’s not true, and your discomfort at the fact it isn’t true is your problem not mine.
7: “But I’d be more worried if it were nurses and healthcare workers cheering Cameron on.”
Out canvassing last month someone on the doorstep said to me “Well, I’m a nurse so I’ll definitely be voting for you”. I was rather taken aback and had a “does not compute” moment, we’ve reached a point where the logical extrapolation from someone being a nurse is that they will be voting Tory?
It was over the pay rise incidentally (and before anyone else points it out, of course I’m not suggesting that nurses across the country are flocking to the Tories. Just one of them, round the corner from me
)
What we are witnessing is the long death of an evil monster called New Labour. May 3rd will be a historic day in which the final nails will be hammered hard into Tony Blair’s and Gordon Brown’s coffin. When the results come through on May 4th, it will be a day for jubilation up and down the land, for the monster will be fatally wounded.
O/T - John McDonnell is out to 250/1 on Betfair so someone should be able to make some short term profits from trading at that price?
Why are public service workers fed up with Labour?
The facts of massive job cuts in the civil service etc with even more to come - and all the stress and overwork that those who remain have to face, rumours of pay rises under 2% which have been rumbling since the Autumn budget statement (and which now look certain)
And now a tax rise for anyone under £18,000 which includes most of the lower paid grades in the publice services.
Let down by Brown and nowhere left to go - time to punch the govt on the nose and declare for the Cons…
Overall, though, public sector workers have had a much better time of it than private sector workers have had, over the past nine years.
87. Yep, starting to sound like 1979 all over again, when even the luvvies deserted Labour.
Actually - what the Hell is going on with Betfair? Anyone see anything suspicious in the way most of the odds have flown up recently?
Mike - does this or any other poll separate the profit from not-for-profit sectors in such voting intention questions?
Apologies if this has been asked or answered already.
90. Which markets ?
92 - sorry - next labour leader market
Paul M I don’t think Rudy or anyone else will take New york or California from the Democrats. In fact I saw one poll showing him doing quite badly in California. New Jersey and Pennsylvania are totally different kettles of fish. If it really is Clinton vs Giuliani the former could pick up Arkansas and maybe even Louisiana( although Katrina may have permanently depressed the black vote in new Orleans); she’s polling reasonably in some parts of the South. On the other hand she might lose some blue states including the two mentioned above. I still think the GOP nomination is wide open. One poll shows Fred Thompson a point up on Clinton without even declaring. Another poster mentioned Gingrich who is certainly popular with some Conservatives. The trouble is his negatives are higher even than Hilary’s and he’s just had to admit that he was carrying on an extra-marital affair at the height of the impeachment proceedings against Bill Clinton.
The current joke is that the only candidate with one wife is the Mormon, Romney!( who would be finished by a Thompson bid IMHO). Giuliani is on his third( his wife too) and McCain is on his second.
93. Gordo has been coming in - 1.23 and falling. Who wants to back any of the no hopers - they have zero chance of winning and may even struggle to make the 44 MPs.
88 and that is really one of many problems Brown has created for himself - the years of plenty are over and now he’s going to start implementing real terms pay cuts (such as the one announced for nurses).
pregethwr Can you compare figures that far back. I thought - but i am certainly no expert in this- that in 1998, or thereabouts, the Labour government changed over to relative poverty as a measure rather than absolute poverty as it was before that, and that both measures can be self defeating for different reasons - absolute by changes in the baseline and relative as that, as Yokel says, means there will always be someone measured as ‘poor’?.
95 - 1.23 isn’t anything special for GB - and either there’s been a lot of laying off of virtually every non-GB bet holder, or someone’s up to something - look at the admittedly non-hope Tessa Jowell price! That’s plummeted recently. John McDonnell was up to 119/1 just a week or two ago.
I don’t really understand spreads like these, but I know people can buy at one price and lay off when the price differs and make a nice profit. At these prices, some bodies got to be tempted to buy and wait till the price improves. John McD will be back to c159/1 in a couple of days time I’m sure!
98. Problem is the liquidity - you might be able to back JMc at 159/1 in a few weeks - but can you lay him for less than 500 ?
Worst excuse of the week from the BBC:
The tax rate rise for small firms was needed to counter East European scams, Chancellor Gordon Brown has said.
Well, he said it today, not in the budget speech or red book or interviews afterwards.
100. Really pathetic, and a terrible insult to millions of honest small business people. Not surprising though I suppose given Labour’s traditional contempt for that social group.
Afternoon all :). The figures on public sector works are of course interesting but the “public sector” covers an enormous range of workers - the Police, firemen, teachers, senior civil servants, traffic wardens, soldiers etc, etc. It is an enormous group of disparate people united in that the Government (directly or indirectly) pays the salary every month.
The area I am best acquainted with is local Government staff especially white-collar admin staff. All forms of opinion have always existed among this group. It is probably fair to say that in 1997 there was a big hope that the new Labour Government would fundamentally change and improve the lot of local Government workers and in some areas this has happened.
However, in many Conservative-run Counties, for example, the last five years has been a persistent squeeze on Government grant and between the rock of falling grant and the hard place of a 5% cap on Council Tax rises, it has been very difficult. There is massive disillusionment with Labour and only the hope that an incoming Conservative Government will do away with the Prescott “redistribution” of funds away from southern Tory (and LD) authorities to northern and inner-city Labour authorities.
The other change has been where local authorities, which were Labour or LD controlled in the 1990s, have returned to the Conservative fold. Among my contacts in these authorities, there is huge disappointment with the new Conservative administrations which have gone back to the “slash and burn” cuts of the 1980s. Anyone who wants, for instance, to look at how Hammersmith & Fulham have cut their Council Tax should also look at WHAT has been cut and why.
This divergence between the “sweet” words of Cameron and the “sour” words of Tory authorities is significant. Without seeking to generalise, I do think a number of Conservatives who were elected say from 1999 onward back into authorities where they had lost control during the routs of 1993-96, have behaved in a vengeful manner. Clearly, that’s not true of all but I have heard some wholly chilling accounts from senior managers about how incoming Tory administrations have basically “laid waste” to the administration in a desperate move to reduce Council Tax and the consequences of that folly.
One other point - a significant tranche of local authority workers are “winners” from this Budget but it remains to be seen whether their economic self-interest outweighs the anger they feel toward the Government and John Prescott in particular. I do think we need to hear something constructive from Cameron about the devolution of powers back to local authorities from central Government. The early comments about the use of voluntary bodies for service deliveries have been very poorly received. It shows a fundamental misunderstanding of the “political” nature of these voluntary groups.
2. “The sight of junior doctors cheering Cameron was very instructive”
The words ‘turkeys’ and ‘Christmas vote’ come to mind.
94 Blue Moon Thanks for the response. I suppose I am starting from the premise that in the current environment I don’t see Hillary losing any Blue states to a Republican, with the possible exception of PA or NJ but then only if Giuliani is candidate. If Ohio turns blue, then any potential Republican candidate has to demonstrate an ability to flip a blue state, and I’m not sure which states Thompson/Romney/Gingrich/McCain etc could flip, although I agree they might be stronger in the already red states.
Michael Barone has done a couple of pieces on this in US News & World report - I’ll see if I can find the link for you
102. I find that description of the way Tory councils are taking the axe to bloated local administrations very heartening.
I am not convinced Hilary could flip any southern state, even Arkansas. Same for the rest of the Dems. States to look out for are maybe NJ, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, and Colorado which in my view is more realistic than any southern state. If Rudy makes NJ competitive, then NH/Maine (one of the Maine votes in any case) has to be in play too. NM is not safe for the Republicans, and a Giuliani type candidacy could make Oregon (won by Gore by the tiniest of margins) in play. Basically, this far out all is in play. But I think there are at most a dozen states which are competitive.
76/104 Paul M. Good points.
105 Clearly a wealthy Conservative supporter who does not care for essential services for the disabled and elderly .
Paul M and Peter2 I was thinking of the Barone piece when I posted. I think it was a Regional breakdown of Rasmussen polling. I seem to remember that it showed the potential for significant trade between red and blue if Giuliani and Clinton were the two candidates. I’m pretty sure that he said that Clinton was doing rather better in one or two southern states than he would have expected but also that Giuliani was doing badly in California but well in one or two north eastern states like New Jersey( he surely would be competitive here) and, I agree New Hampshire. Actually Clinton does quite poorly at the moment in match ups with Giuliani but if she lost either New York or California it would mean a GOP landslide and I can’t see either falling.
109 Blue Moon
The Michael Barone article
http://www.usnews.com/usnews/opinion/baroneblog/archives/070223/newt_vs_hillary.htm
The thing to bear in mind with all of this is that apart from Nebraska and Maine, the rest of the states are “winner takes all” so losing 49-51 is no more use than losing 30-70. (although if California or New York were at least close enough to require wall to wall TV ads, it could have significant financial implications for the Democrats)
I had the strangest experience of my political life yesterday when I was cheered by a Unison picket line for being a Conservative!!!
…Andy that is, not Any
Re 111, Wow!
Well if we are swapping anecdotes: tonight in one of Labour’s heartland Reading wards an 84 year old lady told me that she had voted Labour for 53 years and at this election she was switching to the Conservatives.
Yesterday a nurse phoned the office to tell me how she was ashamed to work in the NHS because of “what Blair was doing to the NHS” and pledging her support.
The times they are achanging!
re 4 well how about a leak that we weren’t getting more than a 2.5% pay rise, or it could coincide with my hospital saying that yet another vacnacy freeze was starting and there would be more redundancies next year, or that car parking charges were to double.
I could go on.
re 22 you can use them to format tables as well as I proved to myself yesterday
Re 112 and 114, I would appreciate an email with more details if possible. Might write something up!