The Political Punter on 18 Doughty Street at 7.30pm
March 29th, 2007
I’ve just recorded a 30 minute programme on my book, The Political Punter, which will be shown tonight at 7.30 pm on the 18 Doughty Street channel.
I had a good discussion with fellow blogger, Iain Dale, who presents the programme.
The book itself will be launched at the PB party on April 17th. It can be pre-ordered from here.
UPDATE - The programme can be view by clicking this link.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
Shameless Plug !!!!!!!!!! Call yourself Benedict ……
I think you’re allowed to plug on your own blog…
3 IA. Don’t italics me …. I can do bold now !!
Are we it? Can we order copies direct through Paypal or something. As Woody Allen said the worst crime in his family was buying retail. I dont mind paying but rather that Mike had the money.
Lord Bonkers’ Diary 317
29 March 2007 (09:31:26)
Monday
I must apologise for my unwonted absence from these columns in February, though I was pleased to see that the amusing young people at Liberator magazine had the good sense to reprint some of my more informative diary entries – I hope you enjoyed them as much as I did. I have been gratified, too, by the cards, flowers and jars of calves’ foot jelly that have arrived by every post, and only this morning Meadowcroft brought me a pineapple from his glasshouse. As a rule I enjoy robust – even rude – health, and I have long attributed this to my mother having Nurse dip me in the Spring of Immortality that bubbles from the mountainside about the Birchcliffe Centre in Hebden Bridge when I was still an infant. Unfortunately, the silly goose held me by a part of my anatomy whilst she bathed me, with the result that nowadays it sometimes gives me gyp. You will be pleased to learn, however, that my strength is fast returning: only this morning I walked unaided to the village school to hear the children sing selections from the work of T. H. Green.
Tuesday
Whilst laid up in bed, I heard our own Dr Evan Harris on the modern wireless defending scientists’ production of chimera – or is it pronounced chimera? One never knows – that is, hybrids between man and rabbit. I am not surprised. When last helping at an election in Oxford, I noticed that the bulk of our election literature was being delivered by creatures that walked upon their hind legs and sported long floppy ears. One simply handed them a map and a bundle of leaflets, and off they went lippity, lippity. I asked Harris if there would be any problem in my getting a few of these fellows to deliver in Rutland, but he assured me that they breed like rabbits.
Wednesday
What a boon these mobile telephones are! One must, however, remember to leave them switched on. At Harrogate, for instance, I obtained a copy of Sir Menzies’s speech just as he reached the rostrum. Scanning it quickly, I found it to contain some nonsense about Gordon Brown embracing liberal democracy, with not a mention of Proportional Representation – a subject without which no speaker ever roused an audience. As he was not far into things, I naturally prepared to give him a bell and suggest some rather more suitable material. Just as I was dialling his number, the delightful Elspeth informed me that she had just told him to turn his phone off – with results that were only too clear from the following day’s newspapers.
Thursday
Quite the saddest event of the year so far has been the ending of the engagement between the delightful Sian Lloyd and our own Lembit Öpik. The Member for Montgomery, you will have read, has instead taken up with one of the Cheeky Girls, though I am not convinced that even he could say which one with any confidence. One must be wary of continually harking back to the ‘Good Old Days’, but I have to say that I cannot recall having trouble of this sort with Clement Davies and the Beverley Sisters. I am sure we all wish Miss Lloyd all the best, and I have to say that if I were her and, in the course of my meteorological researches, spied an asteroid heading for Lembit’s head, I should not mention it.
Friday
Advised by my doctor that I should not overtax my strength, I spend the day in bed, dictating letters, sending orders to Meadowcroft and so forth. Quite an exhausting day.
Saturday
I am pleased to see the Irish cricket team doing so well at the World Cup; indeed, one wonders whether poor Ed Joyce did the right thing by throwing in his lot with England rather than continue to appear for his native land. Joyce, incidentally, comes from a distinguished cricketing family. One thinks of James Joyce, who was the author of Useless (which, I must confess, I was never able to finish) and an accomplished cover point. I fear, however, that William Joyce’s achievements as a lower middle order batsman have been quite eclipsed by his treachery during the Second World War, when he earned himself the soubriquet ‘Lord Haw Haw’. (By coincidence, I was known in my younger days as ‘Lord Ha-Ha’ because of my love for landscape gardening). No such obloquy should be attached to Ed Joyce’s mother Joyce Joyce , who was for many years a mainstay of the Irish women’s team.
Sunday
And so to St Asquith’s for a Service of Thanksgiving for my recovery. People are Terribly Kind.
Lord Bonkers, who was Liberal MP for Rutland South-West 1906-10, opened his diary to Jonathan Calder
Well done Mike. Please post a link to the program when it is available.
Anyone any information on what appears to be the only by-election today, Basingstoke and Deane DC, Rooksdown -vacant due to death of the former conservative councillor
3 or even bold italics Jack
7. Isnt there an election in Neath today??
9. Refer you to Charles Clarke thread.
7. There should be something in Buckinghamshire CC (Stoke Poges and Farnham Common ward; Con won it by around 1,800 votes in 2005) and one in Powys (Independent seat)
11 Kingbongo-I wish to remind you that I quite clealy said ‘Some people condoned what happened at Brighton’-I was not saying anyone in particular,not me,the neighbour’s cat,whoever-it is an opinion I have heard repeated by a few people-point is the opinion exists.
The logic of your subtext seems David Cameron was right to sack Patrick Mercer,because Mercer said something a bit close to the knuckle,that is ‘not acceptable’-even though I oppose DC’s party,I sympathise with Patrick Mercer over,well,over-zealous political correctness,in my view
Now I don’t care if someone is a communist or a raving fascist-I have friends from all shades of the political prism.My point is -does freedom of speech exist on this site-I am beginning to wonder
I’m watching you on 18ds and you’re pretty good, Mike.
12. Mercer’s racist outburst illustrates the real nature of the Tory party & how it remains essentially unchanged. That this came from a shadow cabinet member, hand-picked by Cameron is telling.
Hang on though, it was Cameron who wrote the ultra-rightist manifesto for the 2005 GE, so yes, he would want to be surrounded by those who shared his views, so that’s why he gave Mercer the job.
12 try and pick on someone who really criticised your Brighton Bomb posting, I only ever said it wasn’t well thought out.
Quite why you’ve suddenly responded to that and not to the substantive point I made is curious. The context in which you made your point about Brighton certainly led some people to suggest you sympathised with that view (including JackW IIRC). I didn’t; I just pointed out your bleatings about poverty were laughable in the face of 10 years of a Labour government that just keeps making the problem worse.
12. I find it sad that *anyone* would condone attempting to blow up a government they didn’t like, to be honest…
13 - I agree, it was a very entertaining half hour.
Well done Mike.
Well done on 18DS, Mike - or shall we call you Alvar now? And my thanks to Iain Dale, too - there are many worse interviewers in the MSM.
Well done, Mike - great advert for the book and the site. Much more successful and enjoyable than Guido’s effort last night, although in truth Ian Dale is marginally less scary than Paxo.
er, it’s 8.07. Is there any means of viewing after the event?
15.O.K,there will always be relative poverty-obviously in a capitalist society there will be richer and poorer
14 -Under DC’s,admittedly well-intentioned attempt to put orange and green into Tory blue,I suspect the hard-right head-bangers are alive and kicking-I do hope a Howard Flight-like character opens his mouth just at the wrong timne for DC:wink:
16-I do recall reading in ,I think the left-wing New Statesman that ‘police were investigating 40 million suspects for Brighton’
re 19 as just indicated, I missed it. But ‘well done’? Surely, Peter, the better are the book and Mike’s promotion thereof, the worse our chances become of making money on these markets?!?! [smiley face if I knew how to do one!)
Thanks everybody. I thought Iain Dale handled that brilliantly. We should get a link in the next hour or so in order that people can watch it at their leisure.
Patrick please stop digging. There are plenty of holocaust deniers around. Do you feel obliged to quote their views? The implication of your post was that even if you didn’t agree with the views of IRA brighton bomb apologists ( very few brits among them, I suspect) you could understand their feelings. Tell that to poor Norman Tebbit’s wife crippled ever since. You went too far and it would be better to admit it or at least drop it.
23. Congrats. Pleased you agreed with me on tactical voting trends! BTW How’s about doing a regular periodical piece like that. I’d pay money for that, better by far than rubbish like the Racing Post!
24 I will drop it.
Can anyone quote the list of tonight’s QT particpants?
21. Patrick your attempts to backpedal on this bombing issue are pathetic, especially as you have made clear your sympathies for the IRA in the past. Strangely enough that was late at night too, no doubt after a jar or two.
26. Hazel Blears, Sayeeda Warsi, George Carey, Yvonne Thompson, Nigel Farage
27(a)I am sober (b)I am delighted normality and democracy is returning to NI-for all sides
22 Martin - First things first. Smiley faces are easy. It’s colon/hyphen/close brackets. Now come on. It’s time you got this. Young Jack is already onto bold and italics. You don’t want to be left behind, do you?
The point you raise is interesting and very relevant. Most of my betting is on the horses. Horseracing is a very mature market. Because it’s been going so long, the serious players have well-established methods and stratagems. Volumes are high and margins are low. This means that to make a serious profit, you have to be exceptionally good, like professional punter Dave Nevison, or have some special angle, like the late Alex Bird who made a fortune betting on photo-finishes.
Political betting is an immature market. Volumes are low and margins are high. You don’t have to be very good to succeed nor do you need any specialist knowledge. Lack of liquidity is a problem but things are changing.
I would say that we are in a sort of golden period where the competition is weak, the margins high and the volumes are growing. I reckon for the next few years those who take their political betting seriously can make a bit of a killing. Gradually though the market will mature and margins will shrink. The main driving force will be increasing turnover which will bring in more and more serious punters with more professional methods. The amateurs who populate the field at present will either professionalise or be driven out. In its own small but significant way, Mike’s book will contribute to this proecess.
27,One day,I hope no-one hates for race,religion,sexual orientation,whatever
29. Do abortion laws become a devolved matter. I think both DUP and SF want banning I think.
31. Very noble of you. We’ll see how long such sentiments last before we get another outrageous outburst shall we?
Well done Mike. Very enjoyable half hour. You were relaxed and avuncular. I was also impressed by Iain Dale’s interviewing. Seems a nice guy- for a Tory!
Best of luck with the book and I look forward to purchasing my own signed copy at the launch party.
Yokel
I have sent you an email bearing good news .
33 Oi, Scally! I thought I was the ‘moral arbiter’ around here!
36. Fair play Peter..
31 indeed but I’m sure you’ll go on hating people because they’re tories - relative poverty will always be there (no sh1t Sherlock) -
Your point was the gap between richest and poorest had improved under Labour. I merely pointed out it hadn’t, it has got worse. The budget will make it worse still but you will still go on hating tories and seeing socialism as the answer; you can’t beleive people should be trusted to better themselves and the state’s role should be to foster and encourage their ambitions, not trap them in state-controlled poverty.
On Thread - if I buy Mike’s book will it finally enable me to fully understand spread betting markets? I know this week I’m going to miss out on a Blair bounce on BrandIndex.
31-Even political affiliation?
and a Cameron bomb!
38,You may be intrigued to learn I no longer hate the Conservative Party(I never have hated anyone for their individual views)
I full y realise a democracy needs a helthy Opposition to work properly-from 1997-2005 Great Britain frankly lacked that.(If only Ken Clarke had been elected leader in 1997,he would have probably got to Downing Street by now,and even I would manage a weak smile:wink:)
I admit many things happened between 1979 and 1997 to relatives,friends,myself,that made me INCANDESCENT with anger.But,that was then,now is now.I’m not saying I’m going to fall in bed with the Tory Party-stable economy,low mortgage rates,well-funded public services,the end of the World War I restriction on licensing laws(backed by DC);in my view Great Britain is a more liberal,mature,vibrant place than in 1997.Oh,I have bettered myself through my own efforts-admittedly I was on Tax Credits for a while-this was a springboard for my vaulting forwards.(I DO concede I am worried the forms are so complex that even as someone with A levels,I had to scratch my head-how might someone else cope-the sysyem does need simplifying)
37 LOL Scally!
Btw, I did deal with your points on the other thread but to be frank I’m tired of the issue and if you’re happy to leave it there, I certainly am.
OK?
Andrea I finally saw the Populus poll on the Scotsman website but I can’t see the Mail poll on their’s. On the Welsh elections other more knowledgeable posters have pointed out that Labour will likely be compensated for losses in the constituency vote, at least to some extent, by gains in the regional vote. That being so the best measure to look at would be the number of constituency losses by Labour and perhaps also their share of the Welsh vote.
1999 Labour 27 constituency seats
Plaid Cymru 9
LD 3
Con 1
2003 Labour 30
Plaid Cymru 5
LD 3
Con 1
Labour look likely to go well below the 27 they got in 1999. Can Plaid get into double figures? Can the Tories overtake the LDs as the third Party in terms of constuencies won?( they are already in terms of overall seats).
43.”I can’t see the Mail poll on their’s.”
probably not worthy to look at. The pollster doesn’t have a great past record. And they even included the Greens in the first vote choices even if they don’t stand there.
41 which is why the Treasury budget for them being less than 50% taken up. Tax credits weren’t the springboard for improving your economic position, you were - stop giving all the credit to the State and take some of it yourself.
The springboard would have worked better if you could have entered the labour market at a decent rate without paying any tax at all. The other ways Britain is better since 1997 are great things to debate over a pint but I wouldn’t give credit to any politician for vibrancy or maturity. As for ‘liberal’ I find that hard to accept in a country with 20% of all the world’s CCTV and a law allowing the police to arrest you for reqading out the names of people killed in an illegal war.
43.”On the Welsh elections other more knowledgeable posters have pointed out that Labour will likely be compensated for losses in the constituency vote, at least to some extent, by gains in the regional vote”
It’s in Mid and West Wales where Lab should gain list seats. They can end up with 0 FPTP seats there (all their constituencies in that region are marginal) and so they can pick up a couple of list seats
And they use new boundaries. So the constituency tally is a bit different. According to T&R notionals it should be Lab 29 and Plaid 6
32 - I thought abortion was banned in NI already.
Noone can call you obsessed with Gordon Brown Mike, you call him Des Brown by accident!
43. Can Plaid get in double figures. They will hold all present seats barring a massive shock in Yns Mon. Llanelli is a stone cold gain for them. Will the Tories overtake Lib Dems, unless Lib Dems make som surprising gains from Labour highly likely. You have to throw in the two seats won in 2005 GE but not 2003 WA. Don’t buy the nonsense the Lab AM in Cardiff North is putting it out. She is pulling out before she is crushed. Clwyd West will me far tighter, but I still cannot see how he will survive. Preseli Pembs- Con gain. Chances in Delyn and Bridgend so yes is your answer. Refer you to Charles Clarke thread.
Mike good interview - Liberal Democrats are such nice people and are so reasonable - not sure why we aren’t in government - maybe next time!
49.”They will hold all present seats barring a massive shock in Yns Mon.”
Weren’t you doubting about their chances in Aberconwy in the previous thread? It’s a notional Plaid seat. So I think it can count as a loss if the tories win it
Punter Thanks for that. I seem to remember that the story of 1999 was of Plaid gains in the Valleys. Is there no chance of some surprising gains by Plaid in Labour’s heartlands? If not why not? Labour seem to be vulnerable everywhere else. How low could Labour go if things are very bad( in terms of constituency losses)?
51. Seats they hold as of now. Not counting newly held notionals. Re Aberconwy, merely said I doubt they can take that AND Carms West & SP. Have picked you up on that thread I think.
50 Agreed, Icarus. I think on balance Mike was right not to have his face blanked out. Perhaps we should send Guido a copy so’s he can see how it should be done.
Thanks for your note on html, and your kind concern about my doggy. He runs again Saturday. Law of averages says he should win soon. We’re going to try feeding him to see if that helps.
53. I think that the “official” gain/loss tally will be made on the notionals not using results on old boundaries.
It will shortly be disclosed that David Miliband has been “persuaded”
I am unable to comment further at this stage but will keep you all posted.
52. blue moon, the thing is that there’re no polls and you should rely just on parties’ “sources” and as you pointed me out a couple of threads ago they can spin a bit
52. It will be very bad for them. In 99 the Tories were still all but wiped out. Now they are back with a vengeance in what used to be their “natural” seats in Wales. That is bad enough for Labour. The big unknown barring a poll! is whether Plaid will eat into Labour’s heart as they did briefly in 99. If both occur together, as they did not in 99 then that is the perfect storm for Labour. But I am not precicting that yet!
57. Yes everything is with a health warning, but thus far I have seen the average Lab prediction 24-26 seats which seems fair enough.
Peter the P Hmmm might slow him down or is he a little emaciated after your less than stellar Cheltenham festival?
Re the Valleys seats.
2 of the seats lost by Labour in 1999 were gained back in 2003 with a huge majority.
Rhondda: 34.6%
Islwyn: 35.7%
And Labour won the 2005 GE there with increased majorities.
58. Slight retraction “bad” not “very bad.” That would be a repeat of Plaid’s 99 Valleys breakthrough in conjunction with a Tory revival.
62. the “disaster” situation would be losing marginals to the tories, a 1999 type Plaid performance in the valleys and a 2005 style LD perfomance in the cities!
60 We’ve all been on bread and water since Kauto Star trotted up, Blue Moon.
63. Agreed!
56. If David Miliband has been persuaded then I am a Dutchman.
The bloke is sensible, for a Labour politician that is - Oh dear have I just made a £400 mistake?
63 Then ther’re always some seats where there’re “unknown” variables and so they won’t follow the general trend.
For ex Ron Davies will stand in Caerphilly. How much will he poll? And who will he get votes from?
The tories did lots of problems in Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South (a potential 3 way marginal). First their candidate was forced to resign after some homophobic comments. Then Eric Howells (former Welsh Conservative chairman) accused the association to have been taken over by Countryside Alliance and said he could back another candidate (he was suspened by the party). Then the deselected candidate backed him and his view.
Then there’s Wrexham. Marek is holding it. Whilst back, it was reported that Labour had some hopes to get it back. Last time they chose their candidate at the last minute, this time they selected the same candidate of 2003 and she had more time to campaign.
In Ynis Moon a former Tory AM is standing as independent (he did it in 2005 GE too and he polled quite well outpolling the tories).
67 Andrea - “For ex Ron Davies will stand in Caerphilly. How much will he poll? And who will he get votes from?”
Well I understand he goes down well in the Clapham area.
It will be interesting to see here as elswhere whether voters identify the Party most able to give Labour a kicking and vote accordingly. If they do Labour could do much worse in Wales than some people think. I suppose voters may not get an accurate picture of how to vote tactically in some seats if there is potentially more than one challenger. Andrea. If Labour have given any estimate of how many seats they will get I would assume they will do rather better than that as for the other Parties they will likely do better than they’re saying, too. My suspicion is that everyone is sticking to generalities; ‘difficult election’ for Labour, ’should hold on to what we’ve got and hope for a gain or so’ for the Others.
68.PtP, but how big is the “cottaging” vote in Caerphilly? And is it bigger among Labour or Plaid voters?
32,47 Abortion is effectively banned in Northern Ireland except for extreme circumstances. The DUP would keep this status quo. Sinn Fein surprisingly perhaps is in favour of relaxing the abortion laws, although they keep a low profile on the subject.
What is the Italian for cottaging, Andrea?
67. He is standing is the answer. Goodness only knows is the answer to that.
CWSP. Yes but it is the South. Plaid has far less manpower than the North, as I say as Labour weaken they will face increasing dilemmas as to where to deploy.
Wrexham, easily the best chance for a Lab gain. I don’t expect their vote share to rise by much if at all, but a Lib Dem push with an eye to the long long term Westmin seat could be M’s undoing.
Ynys Mon. Yes if enough people realise electing him quite a popular figure, would ensure the election of Wigley an overwhelmingly popular figure, then it is just possible Jones could be in trouble, but I don’t think enough do know. Again picked you up on Clarke thread I think.
Peter the P. On no boyo there were no sexual activities of any kind. He just went for a curry with a stray Rasta he met on the Common. Don’t tell me you haven’t done the same many times.
69.”I suppose voters may not get an accurate picture of how to vote tactically in some seats if there is potentially more than one challenger”
yup, for ex there’re some seats with Plaid second in 2003 AE, but with the Libdems doing well in 2005 GE. So it can be confusing, especially if both challengers will campaign locally
“If Labour have given any estimate of how many seats they will get I would assume they will do rather better than that as for the other Parties they will likely do better than they’re saying, too”
uhm, so far they seem to have made (more or less) realistic suggestion in terms of expectations.
Plaid said 17 seats. Libdems said between 7 and 12 (I think). Tory “strategists” briefed BBC with seats they think they’ll gain or where they’ve hopes (they all look reasonable suggestions).
70 Andrea, Labour - bigger in every respect.
74. Correct terminaolgy please, Blue Moon - it’s a Ruby Murray. And no, I’ve never had a Rasta. I’m more of a vindaloo man.
France Presidential Election Poll
BVA March 29.
Round One
Sarkozy-28%
Royal-27%
Bayrou-20%
Le Pen-12%
Others 13%
Round Two
Sarkozy 51%
Royal 49%
Ipsos March 29
First Round
Sarkozy-31%
Royal -24.5%
Bayrou-18%
Le Pen- 12.5%
Others-14%
Second Round
Sarkozy 53.5
Royal 46.5,
Bayrou 51.5
Sarkozy 48.5
74 blue moon. The only stray PtP is involved with is the anorexic mongrel with more reverse gears than an Italian tank and that is fast becoming a PB financial black hole !!
64. Peter as you know I have been in good spirits since Kauto Star trotted up. Fine merlot has been on tap in Cheltenham since KS obliged. Ruby and Paul Nicholls can do no wrong in this household. Glad we managed to meet at Cheltenham.
Peter the P Right thanks for putting me right. Not sure I like vindaloos. Tends to cause a dreadful pen and ink afterwards.
78: Startling gap in the French polls persists. Are there differences in methodology that we can dissect in our learned way on this site?
The other striking thing is how stable each poll is within its own series. You’d expect the MOE to mean that Royal would pop in front now and then, or Bayrou would show 2nd.
79 He’s running again on Saturday, Jack. He’s told me he’s going to run really fast this time. Honest.
80 You do realise, Cheltboy, that whilst you quaff the finest Merlot, me and my poor dog are subsisting on starvation rations. No wonder the poor animal takes an hour to do a lap at Walthamstow. You have our address. Please send us a couple of dog biscuits.
Great news for Tories. The new seat of Hammersmith (notionally Labour) tonight selected Shaun Bailey, a charismatic local youth worker who runs a charity that works with ex-offenders. Any bets on a Conservative gain?
81 Too true, Blue Moon, and third degree burns around the Khaiba next day.
[83] Your pooch talks?
Andrea I promise you that all the Parties will be extremely conservative( with a small c) in their seat projections. If Plaid are saying 17 that means that they’re very confident of doing better overall than in 1999. Ditto the Conservatives and the LDs with their projections. Do you really think any of the Parties want to spend the whole night on the results programmes and the day after defending ‘ worse than forecast’ results?
86 He doesn’t just talk, Icarus, he posts regularly on PB.com.
83. You planning to race instead of your dog then………
Peter the punter I hope you gather up the Richards after him.
87. Blue Moon, adding that Labour is trying to suggest they can hung on in some marginals (BBC reported that at the conference the mood among delegates were thinking they can save the 0.1% majority they have in Llanelli), there won’t be enough seats if all parties will do better than what they say.
I think that sometimes parties exagerate a bit their prospects (in public) to give themself a winning image. For ex teh Libdem Scottish leader claimed they can be the largest party at Holyrood after May and, well, it won’t happen.
91. TBH that Llanelli story was so laughable it surely can’t have been a serious one. When parties run a hare it usually has a kernel of truth and Labour saving a 21 vote majority in year like this ain’t it.
71. ‘Sinn Fein surprisingly perhaps is in favour of relaxing the abortion laws, although they keep a low profile on the subject’
Why surprising? they have never had a problem with killing innocents of any age, surely.
89 It is just possible i might have more chance, Punter.
90. Fraid not. Makes me tom and dick. Leave it to the trouble.
92. I think that in the run up of elections (especially in public speeches) parties sometimes hype themself to show the “winning here” image and to energize their activist base.
re 8 what’s the matter with red, bold, underlined italics?
well the font tag doesn’t work then
95,Peter,I posted my cheque to you last Saturday lunchtime-has it arrived yet,please?
91. Blue Moon, maybe there’s the third option. A party’s real estimations are wrong, they lower it to spin to the press and then the spinned one turns out to be true as the real one was wrong!
99 Yes, Patrick, thank you. I thought I had emailed an acknowledgement but I must have forget. I’ll email again.
99 Hang on a minute. I have two Patricks. Which one are you?
68 not forgetting the badger fanciers - surely they’ll be solidly behind him
Andrea in an individual contest you often get hyping of prospects; the LDs are masters of that. However, when it comes to overall local election results Party HQs are traditionally very cautious indeed in their forecasts. Could Labour forecast say 20 seats in Wales and end up with 19. It’s possible but usually you find the Parties making sure they’re forecasts are low enough to leave them able to say on election night that, however bad the results they’re better than expected. If Labour can use stupid and over excitable forecasts by the other Parties on election night you can be sure they will be very happy to do that.
102,Patrick O’Connor,in Bournemouth
105 That’s what I thought. Another email on its way.
104. Blue Moon “It’s possible but usually you find the Parties making sure they’re forecasts are low enough to leave them able to say on election night that, however bad the results they’re better than expected”
I don’t think what parties spin after the election is so important. What it is important is how the media report it more than the parties. You’ll have Hazel Blears on TV after May and I’m sure she’ll say it all went so well and better than expected. But it’s how the media will portray it the most important thing.
New french poll by CSA
Sarko 26(0)
Sego 24.5(-1.5)
Bayrou19.5%(-1.5)
Le Pen15(+2)
Second round Sarko 52 (+2) beats Sego 48 (-2)
This is the highest figure for Le Pen I’ve seen( a reaction to the tube riot the other day?). Bayrou is not only losing vote share in this poll but also seeing the gap between he and Le Pen shrink. If Left voters have any fear of a Le Pen emergence in the second round Bayrou’s hopes of a tactical vote by Left voters disappears immediately. At the moment Sego is well clear of Le Pen so that doesn’t look at all likely but you can be sure that the Socialist campaign will be happy to play heavily on fears of Le Pen if they can get away with it.
Arb alert
Most sixes in tomorrow’s match:
England 4/6 with Totesport
Ireland 11/2 with Skybet
Tie 13/2 with Blue Square
88.7% book
Suggested staking for levelish profit:
£100 on England, £26 on Ireland, £22 on the Tie (for at least £17 profit)
Personally I’d weight your profit onto the tie, could easily be 0-0.
Andrea Sorry but I’ve been involved in UK politics for a long time. Let’s just drop the subject.
Basinkstoke- Rooksdown Ward
Con 156
LD 122
Lab 18
Con Hold (after a quick look it looks as a swing to LD)
106,Just sent you an e-mail in reply to yours-it is possible I was over-zealous in clearing old e-mails t’other day,hence possibly my missing yours.Roll on April 17th:wink:
Rooksdown, Basingstoke & Deane BC
Con 156
LD 122
Lab 18
turnout 33.7%
Con hold
Yet another Scottish poll is coming out tomorrow. This time in the Telegraph done by Yougov - I don’t know the exact figures but BBC Scotland say SNP leading Labour by 6%.
111 - 2004 result was Con 231 LibDem 132 no Lab candidate .
Andrea - you just beat me to it!
It’s a tiny ward - I think it was about 200-100 last time, so a few 10s of votes really are important.
Re 84 Herman, Really? I have quoted Shaun on my blog! He is an interesting chap!
110. Blue Moon, I think it’s you that brought it up again. And well, you can have been involved in UK politics for all the time you like, but frankly I’m still entitled of my opinion. Thanks.
115/116 On raw voting figures,a 9.1 % swing Con-Lib Dem
Re 111, Andrea what an appalling turnout,
112 No probs, Patrick. I’ll be pleased to see you there.
Benedict - it is actually a 33% turnout.
116. Andy G. I beated you by a minute! But you can spin that it’s just because you added the turnout
122 Yes it is a very small ward indeed .
119. Check your arithmetic.
121,Kind regards Peter,looking forwards:wink:
125,You are quite correct,and I thank you for pointing me out-a 7.9% swing(to the nearest tenth of percent)is the correct figure-I misread a 3 as a 0 when quickly reading the previous election’s figures
Re 122, and 124, Andy and Mark, I see, small? Microscopic surely?
128 The electorate in 2004 was 901 . It may have gone up a fraction since then .
With a total electorate of about 1000 - this is not that small a ward (presumably rural) - typical District Council Wards have about 1500 electors per councillor
128 - yes. But there is lots of development going on in it, just in time for the next boundary review, which I think comes in next year!
Re 130, Round my way we have 2,000 households per ward.
ON THREAD - sort of….
Since this thread touches tangentally on the Launch Party I’ll take the opportunity of listing the names of the confirmed acceptances to attend. There are fourtythree in total, which means we still have seven spare places (although that number may increase when people realise SeanT is coming.) If anybody thinks they should be on the list and they are not, please contact me immediately on arklebar@talktalk.net
I will repeat this post tomorrow for all those who go to bed at a sensible time.
Amelia Gudgion
Augustus Carp
Baskerville
Benedict White
Chris A
Christopher Squire
Cicero
David Douglas
David Herdson
David Kendrick
Dominique Lazanski
Double Carpet
George Crozier
George Little
Gideon Hoffman
Ian Jones
Ian Lang
Icarus
Innocent Abroad
John O
John Wheatley
Julian H
Kieran Barry
Martin Coxall
Matt (and partner)
Neil Foster
Neil Walsh
Nigel White
Patrick
Patrick Rock
Penelope Spiller
Peter from Putney
Peter the Punter
Richard S
Rik W
Sean Fear
SeanT
StJohn (and partner)
Tom Hunt
tpfkar
UK Paul
132 But how many councillors per ward?
88 that was IA - no connection. Who is the jockey on Saturday? What grade are you in?
Oh, I should add that the MPs Nick Palmer, Stewart Jackson, John Hemming and Dan Rogerson are also attending, as guests of Harriman House, and some guy called Smithson is also coming.
Should be a riot.
133.”John O”
You’ll be my spy at the party…don’t miss anything
Thanks for that, my mothers maiden name, and my third name, is Crozier - is George Crozier from Barrow?
Where are Tabman, Jack W, Snowflake, Nuala? I would pay good money to meet some of them.
135 I dunno why but I always get you two mixed up. Maybe it’s because you both take the p*ss out of my dog.
The jockey is Jimmy Saville and the grade is Lower 6th. (Never made it to A levels.)
130. Rooksdown ward isn’t rural it’s on the outskirts of Basingstoke. It’s claim to fame is that it has the lowest life expectancy in England.
137 We still haven’t given up on getting Alan Duncan there, Andrea. Sure you’re not tempted?
Milliband is shortening - who will be chancellor if he runs and wins?
Everyone takes the p*ss out of you dog!!
re 132. Round here wards are 20,000+
142 - Miliband will not stand, Miliband will not even run.
138 But I could be a double or triple agent, feeding you all sorts of scandalous misinformation e.g Sean Fear’s Damescene conversion to the Tory Reform Group
Re 136, Peter who is this Smithson guy?
143. Poor dumb beast. What’s he done to deserve it?
Now the owner, I could understand…..
140 - I find that hard to believe. It’s mainly a middle class ward, though it does contain Basingstoke’s hospital!
145 So Gordon will be coronated with no contest? How do you think that will go down with the Labour Party as a whole let alone the electorate of the Nation?
Re 140, Deane not a record I suspect other wards are after. Why?
141,Peter,in 2001 I won on the Grand National with Red Marauder-by the scientific method of jabbing a dart in the central spread of ‘The Sun’ where the runners were listed.Would you agree that for the Grand national,once you eleimante the obvious donkeys whom run at 100-1 plus,it is ‘hit and hope’(Yes,I know Foinavon won at 100-1 in 1967:wink:)
142 Goupillon - The only question you have to ask yourself is how low will Milliband’s price go? When you have answered that you wait, and when his price touches that point, you lay him till the cows come home.
Read Icarus’s post at 145, memorise it and repeat it to yourself hourly.
152 Patrick - Please don’t get me started on the Grand National! It’s late and I’ve got to go to bed some time. Let me just say that I backed Red Marauder too, but in 2000, when it fell at the fourth. It was, by common consent, the worst jumper ever to win the race.
Professionals love the GN. It is one of the easiest races in the calendar to figure. This year I have backed Joe’s Edge. It may get ballotted out, but if it sneaks in, it’s great value at 20/1. Most firms are going no run/no bet now so no harm in backing now if you like.
And that’s all I’m saying - for now.
154,Cheers,Peter:wink:
147 Some freeloader I expect, Benny.
153 I agree about watching Milliband’s price because that is just business but it is very dangerous to be as certain as you are that Milliband will not run.
Re 156, Peter
BTW, what do you know about world cocoa prices over the last 30 years? Have they remained broadly static?
158 Well according to Newsnight, yes. Wouldn’t surprises me.
Re 159, Peter that was the price at the Ivory Coast farm gate, but given your experience I wondered if you knew about the world prices.
157 I’m not certain, but I think it unlikely for a number of reasons, notably that a) he’s said he won’t run and b) he isn’t daft. Even if he does run, he’ll get beat, so I hope his price continues to drop, so that I can buy at nice cheap prices.
That’s my strategy anyway, Goupillon. If it backfires, I’m prepared to take it on the chin.
You know I really love that name Goupillon. It’s very sexy. Are you married?
160 Sorry benny, I’m a tax man, not a dealer. I could find out, but you could probably do so yourself just as quickly.
Re 162, Peter, well, if you would just google yes I suppose so.
133. The Patrick Rock isn’t the Tory by-election candidate from Portsmouth South in 1984, is it? Wow! always wondered what happened to him…..
161 I do not think it is daft for him to run even if Gordon beats him - it will raise his profile with the electorate and he will reinforce his position to take the leadership if Gordon loses the next election. Also in the interests of Labour Party unity Gordon would be very stupid not to give Milliband a cabinet post (such as Foreign Secretary) assuming he beats him. Or is Gordon really like Stalin?!
165 I guess it depends how he runs. If he does it as a stooge for the ABG persuasion, it could be disastrous. If he runs ‘on his own merits’, so to speak, OK - it could raise his profile and strengthen his position within the Party. Only he can judge what’s best for him. From my distant vantage point, running seems to carry a lot of risk and little upside.
From a betting viewpoint, it matters little. He can’t win, although I suppose by running he gives Brown backers the chance to mop up some more decent prices.
165,It is more than likely David Milliband would get a very senior Cabinet post in a GB govt;presumably this may add to the feeling he is GB’ s heir apparent.
Next point-IMHO,over-excited chatter has abounded on this site r.e the imminemt demise of the incumbent govt:
(1)As someone who has followed UK politics since c.1985,I can..
(2)Draw reference to when Mrs.Thatcher’s govt was approacing its 10th birthday-then,there was the start of a real ‘mid-term-blues’,but ,admittedly with her unpredicted departure,her govt recovered
(3)I know you will say ‘GB IS predicted!’ Fair playI can’t argue,but,IMHO, he does come across as a middle-of-the-road statesman who is trustworthy,and at the next election he will be able to patronise DC as a ‘whiper-snapper’,a ‘wannabe’-sorry if that sounds harsh
167 Can relate to that, Patrick, but I can hardly keep my eyes open any more.
Been good craic on here this evening. Accursed Creatures seem to have found somewhere else to go.
Nite everybody!
Herman@84 Where did you hear that, or were you at the selection? Very good news.
What about the other byelection results?
166 We will leave it there for the time being - I am sure Milliband will continue to maintain his present position until after the May local elections and then we shall see.
BTW - I am married and sorry to say not very sexy these days!
PtP@141. There’s just no luring some people, you know. Work. Haarrumph. The youth of today…
What is the betting on Labour coming third in Swansea West?
O/T,but: I have delved into the data of a historical book of UK PMs;by my calculation,the present Labour government has to hold office until Friday 6th March 2009-wait for it;
See the Tory/Conservative Party(whatever name they have used since 1721,when the office of PM was invented) to have their longest EVER time in opposition
174. And, let us not forget, the longest period of IMPOTENCE for any such opposition….
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UK_by-election_records#Longest_period_without_an_opposition_gain
WA: Plaid prospects:
Plaid Hold 5: Carmarthen East, Ceredigion, Merionydd Nant Conwy, Caernarfon, Ynys Mon
Boundary changes would replace Merionydd NC with Merionydd Dwyfor, and Caernarfon with Arfon. Would also see them ‘Holding’ new seat of Aberconwy, so Plaid hold 6.
They are certainties to win Llanelli, and look likely to win Carmarthen West & South Pembrokeshire. So Plaid probably take 8 seats.
They are also performing well in the following seats which are Possible Gains:
Swansea West, Neath, Cynon, Caerffili, Islwyn. So Plaid possibly finishing on 13 seats.
In an exceptional poll, they could also take any of the following:
Preseli, Gower, Ogmore, Rhondda, Pontypridd, Merthyr, Clwyd West, Clwyd South. Plaid potential seats 21
WA: Conservative Prospects:
Conservatives Hold 1: Monmouth
Certainty of gaining Cardiff North, and looking likely to win Preseli & Clwyd West. So Conservatives probably take 4 seats.
They also have possible gains in Vale of Glamorgan, CWSP, Delyn, Aberconwy. Conservative Possibles: 8 seats.
On a good night they could also look at Newport West, Bridgend, Brecon, Montgomeryshire, Vale of Clwyd, Ynys Mon. Potential Seats 14
WA: Lib Dem prospects:
LDs hold