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These are the figures, just published on the Ipsos-Mori website, of the first national political poll by the firm since January. As is usual the headline figures are restricted to those “certain to vote”.

It should be noted that the survey involving 1,983 adults aged 18+ at 176 sampling points across Great Britain was conducted face-to-face on 9-15 March 2007. So the poll is a little bit old and took place before the the last CR, ICM and YouGov surveys.

So we have only had two post-budget voting intention surveys and both pointed in different directions. YouGov showed an increased Tory lead while CR had a reduction.

Compared with the last Mori poll in January the Tories are up 2%, Labour and the Lib Dems are each down 2%.

The pollster does not seek to predict the General Election but rather give a barometer of what current opinion is based on their massive monthly face to face survey. So it does not adopt past vote weighting as is followed by ICM and Populus.

Mike Smithson

Tory CR lead slashed as Populus predicts a Scottish Labour collapse

The first two of three polls which are expected today have produced good and bad news for Labour.

The Indy poll will be seen as a welcome boost for Labour and should ease some of the jitters that have been prompted by the other firms in recent weeks.

From the detailed data it looks as though the main reason for the change is a big reduction in the proportion of Tory voters saying they would be certain to vote.

It will be interesting to compare the CR numbers with the March survey from Ipsos-Mori, due today, which only uses the “certains to vote” in its headline figures. If that pollster has picked up the same trend then we can expect a similar decline in the Tory position.

The Populus poll from Scotland is potentially devastating for Labour and suggests that the SNP is heading for victory in the May 3rd elections for the Edinburgh parliament.

The Times projects that the SNP will win 50 of the 129 seats against 43 for Labour, 18 for the Lib Dems, 17 for the Tories and one for the Greens.

A new betting market on who will be Scotland’s first minister after the election has the SNP leader, Alex Salmond, at 8/11. That looks like a value bet as is the 0.73/1 that’s available on Betfair on the SNP winning most seats is 0.73/1.

Communicate Research, it should be said, has built up a reputation for turbulence and unlike all the other pollsters has found Labour leads twice in the past five months. Its final poll before the last general election predicted an 8% Labour margin against the 3% that actually happened. All the other pollsters were closer including the firm which the Indy then used - NOP which got it spot on.

Mike Smithson

And will Devolution-Day be the moment they line up behind Brown?

Following yesterday dramatic meeting between Ian Paisley and Gerry Adams it is becoming clear that Devolution Day - May 8th 2007 - will play a critical part in Tony Blair’s exit time-table.

For the achievement of peace between the communities will become a major element of the Prime Minister’s legacy and provide the backdrop of his historic departure announcement.

And according to the Times this morning May 8th will also be a key moment in Gordon Brown’s plan to become Prime Minister without facing a serious challenge.

The paper reports that on the day of the announcement it has been told “Gordon Brown’s leadership team will try to deter any heavy-weight challengers by demonstrating a massive show of support for him on the day that Tony Blair announces he is going”.

May 8th is also the Tuesday after the elections for the Scottish and Welsh parliaments as well as the local council elections in England when Labour is expected to take a drubbing.

The news from Belfast and the linkage to Blair’s exit has caused a big change in the departure date betting. Because the Betfair market is on the date when Blair ceases officially to be leader Q2 2007 has now become the 0.74/1 favourite.

Meanwhile after all the goings on over the weekend the Guardian is quoting the comment on the site yesterday by Nick Palmer MP about the settled mood of Labour MPs about the Brown succession.

So given that everything is now apparently sorted in UK politics for the next few years what are we going to talk about on Politicalbetting?

But what’s that old saying - “There’s many a slip twixt cup and lip”?

Mike Smithson

This Week - Make Hay from Straw

No surprise that we’re leading off this week with man of the moment, Jack Straw. It seems to us he suddenly has everything going for him – campaign leader, the promise of High Office and the opportunity, as a former Foreign Secretary, to pronounce weightily on the Iran crisis. He looks a snip at 76.2. Buy two points.

Tony Blair’s rise in the popularity chart shows no sign of stopping. He led us to our second most successful performance ever last week – a plus of 9.9 points – and subject to anything Commander Yates might have to say, he looks good for further improvement. Go cautiously though, just in case an Inspector calls. We suggest a one point buy at 64.0.

William Hague is another who could benefit from Iran-related publicity. This consistently good performer looks a safe bet at 97.3. Buy one point.

Looks like another week in which Ming is likely to be crowded out of the spotlight. He’s due to drop back in the charts. Sell one point at 77.5.

Since we have plenty of cash in the bank (30.4 points in total), we thought we might also try a couple more speculative shots. After much deliberation, we decided that the Brown-bashing had perhaps been overdone and that his price had dropped to the point where it represents a bit of value. Buy him for half a point at 63.5. And just for fun, sell bonking Boris – half a point at 94.2. We hear he’s been on the brew and might just be suffering a hangover.

Take it steady and remember that spread betting is very volatile. We base the recommendations on a stake of £10 per point but don’t under any circumstances risk more than you can afford to lose. We’ve had a good run but there’s no magic formula and as we all should know by now ‘the value of your investments can go down as well as up’.

Have fun, but have care too.

Peter Smith (Peter the Punter)

Sadly William Hill’s 6/1 price is no more

Over the past thirty-six hours dozens of PB users have been putting as much cash as they can on Jack Straw as next Chancellor at what appeared to be the the very generous price of 6/1.

For clearly the leader of the house and the man who has been both home and foreign secretaries under Blair is going to be rewarded with a plum position if and when Brown takes over. For the announcement yesterday that he is to be Brown’s campaign manager is playing a big part in the chancellor’s “foregone conclusion” strategy.

We might all be wrong but surely the one major position that Straw has not held is the one he’ll be offered when all the changes take place.

Whatever this was much better than a 6/1 shot and dozen of PBC punters have been piling on. Alas the price has been changed and now Hills make Straw the 5/2 favourite.

Hills, who have slashed Brown’s leadership odds from 1/12 to 1/20, make Ed Balls and Alistair Darling 4/1 joint second favourite to become the next Chancellor and also offer; 8/1 Des Browne; 10/1 David Miliband; 14/1 Hilary Benn.

Mike Smithson

What’s behind Mandelson’s series of weekend announcements?

Anybody who has followed the news over the past couple of days could not have missed the presence of the former close aide to Blair, Britain’s current commissioner at the EU, and the person that Brown is said to blame for him not getting the labour leadership in 1994.

We’ve had a spate of interviews with the ex-Labour communications chief, the news of his desire to step down from his EU role in 2009 and even a suggestion that he “might want to return to Hartlepool.”

And also it’s being suggested this morning that he was behind yesterday’s stories that Blair is saying that Miliband could beat Brown

This has led to a counter accusation reported in today’s Independent that Mandelson’s move was a “botched coup” against Gordon.

If this story is right it shows the extraordinary state of mind of the Brown gang. There isn’t a vacancy yet; there is a process that will be gone through when a vacancy does occur; and any Labour MP who can get the backing of 44 colleagues can put him or herself forward.

Why is Brown so desperate that he gets the job without a serious fight? Surely a hard fought contest would invigorate the party and provide a great springboard for turning Labour round?

As it is the Mandelson moves have probably helped the chancellor because there is one thing you can say about the ex-Hartlepool MP - he’s probably less popular within the party than just about anybody.

His actions can be portrayed as someone who has looked into the future and can see a Labour government where he does not have any access to the heart of power any more.

Labour has been making light of the appalling opinion polls since the budget and the latest figures showing that Brown is now the most unpopular politician within the country. That strategy is going to be hard to sustain unless the polling numbers change.

To my mind the post-budget polls have changed everything. There are two mutually exclusive options - either Labour is toast or Brown is toast. At the moment the party appears to prefer the former and be in a collective state of denial about the numbers.

If that mindset continues then Brown’s succession is a certainty. If not then anything can happen.

Mike Smithson