politicalbetting.com

What will be the Tory vote share on Thursday?

There’s no doubt that all the parties will be spinning like mad in the next couple of days to talk up the prospects of their opponents and to dampen down expectations about themselves. We have this silly game every year so that whatever the outcome all the parties can claim that they have done better than expected. Yawn…Yawn.

But what performances should we be expecting and what, in particular, will be a good result for the Tories. The numbers I will be looking for on Thursday night and Friday will be the national party vote share projection from the BBC based on the outcomes in up to 1,000 key wards.

Last year this gave:-CON 40%: LD 27%: LAB 26%: OTH 7%. If the polls are right and there has been an increase in the Tory position since then then I would expect a share something in excess of 40%. A share below 40% would be bad news and show that the momentum has not been carried forward.

In the Scottish Parliament election and that for the Welsh Assembly I would expect bigger Tory shares than current projections. Polls in those parts of the UK have traditionally overstated Labour and the nationalist parties and understated the Tories.

Mike Smithson

How prices change in the final few days

One of the features covered in my book “The Political Punter” is what happens to betting markets in the final few days before an election when the small body of knowledgeable political gamblers is joined by many in the wider betting community.

They tend to follow favourites resulting in the prices of the most fancied options getting tighter and others moving out. So according to the book “If the person or party you want to back is a strong election favourite the early you get your money on the better. If you want to bet on anything other than a strong favourite wait until after the polling booths have opened to get a better price”.

This applies very strongly this week and these are my approaches to some of the key markets.

Locally in Bedford where I live we are in the final three days of a bruising battle for the Borough’s elected mayor. Last time a multi-millionaire retired local newspaper owner won it on an independent ticket with the Lib Dems in second place. Unlike Thursday that election took place on its own without council seat elections at the same time and had a very low turnout. Things could be different on Thursday when the ability of the incumbent to hold on will require a lot of voters to switch from their normal allegiance.

The Tories appear to have been using their national direct marketing operation and the Lib Dems have produced the best election literature that I have ever seen. I’ll be trying to find a local bookie to offer me a good price against the incumbent winning again. As with all bets everything depends on the price and whether your assessment of the probability of something happening are better than the odds being offered.

Mike Smithson

Have the “funny surveys” been over-stating Labour?

The table has been adapted from Wikipedia and shows the incredible variation in the polling surveys of the regional or list vote ahead of next Thursday’s crucial election for the Scottish Parliament.

On the one hand there have been the surveys by those pollsters which are listed as members of the British Polling Council which are required as part of their membership to follow strict transparency rules. Within two working days of a poll being published the BPC code requires basic detail to be made public so it is possible to analyse how the headline figures were arrived at.

From the above table YouGov, ICM, Populus, and TNS System Three are BPC members and have been carrying out political opinion polling for some time. Just compare their findings for Labour with those from the non-listed firms - MRUK and Scottish Opinion.

During April the BPC members have found Labour shares within a solid 25-27% band. Three of the surveys from the non-listed firms have found shares of 38%, 37%, and 34%. These numbers stretch credulity when you consider that in the Regional list in 2003 Labour chalked up 29.3% of the vote.

A lot has happened over the past four years to Labour and the idea that the party might be securing more than a quarter more votes this time is a total and utter nonsense.

A couple of weeks ago I proposed a wager of £1,000 here to MRUK and the Herald that the predicted Labour shares would be proved wrong. Surprise surprise this has not been taken up.

Mike Smithson

How well can the PBC community predict the elections?

William Hill has betting markets up on the party seat totals for the Welsh Assembly and the Scottish Parliament. Betfair makes the SNP 0.31/1 favourite to pick up most seats in Scotland with Labour on 2.35/1. In Wales Labour are the 1/20 favourite to win most Assembly seats. The Tories are now second favourites on 15/2.

Mike Smithson

Should Sarky backers worry about polling creep?

Taking the polls as a whole it’s clear that there has been a slight erosion in Nicholas Sarkozy’s lead since his triumph in the first round of voting last Sunday. This has been reflected in the betting in the UK.

In the immediate aftermath of Sunday’s voting Ségolène Royal moved out to about 3.7/1. That’s been edging back gently and is now at 3.1/1.

If the daily poll from Ipsos - the pollster that runs the Mori organisation in the UK - moves to 52% or 51% to Sarkozy then the final few days could create a lot of jitters in both camps.

A complicated story is developing over a planned presidential TV debate which has now been cancelled. The event was being seen as something that could benefit Royal but now Sarkozy is being accused of sabotaging it.

This is dangerous territory both candidates and who wins the spin war could benefit.

Mike Smithson

The main development in the Labour leadership this morning is the above story about a possible deal between the rival left-wing candidates, Michael Meacher and John McDonnell that only one of them would stand in the coming contest.

For punters the question is which. For whoever it is then the chances are that that person will get the nominations and be in a position to challenge. Almost certainly the agreed candidate would see a tightening of their price and that means there might be a profit opportunity.

Currently Meacher is at 199/1 and McDonnell is at 249/1. This is hard to read but McDonnell has been in the race for much longer and, unlike Meacher, did oppose the Iraq war.

No doubt we will know soon.

What do you think?

Mike Smithson