Has Murdoch’s flagship paper abandoned Gordon?
April 2nd, 2007
The Times steps up the pressure on the pension row
One of the aspects of media behaviour that is hurting Gordon this morning is that newspapers never like to under-exaggerate the impact of their own scoops.
So the Times follows it revelations on Saturday about the Chancellor ignoring the advice of civil servants in 1997 about the so-called “£5bn pensions grab” with today’s front-page splash, reproduced here, on the possible impact of its actions on the Labour succession.
And as Michael Ashcroft, the ex-Tory treasurer, would no doubt vouch when Rupert Murdoch’s main UK quality paper gets its teeth into something it does not let go easily. This one will run.
The paper says the “scandal” fuelled speculation that Brown “will face a serious challenge” and that he faces a Commons move by the Tories “to have him made personally accountable.”
Unnamed “senior MPs” are reported as saying “that the furore had increased the chances of a serious challenger stepping forward. They said that it sowed serious doubts about Mr Brown’s judgement and economic competence.”
What has made the story worse for the Brown camp has been the two year fight by the Treasury to stop these documents being made available and the suggestion, as the Times leader writer describes it, that they were only released “on a day when Parliament was not sitting and with the Iranian hostage crisis distracting attention. These were documents that the Chancellor wanted to stay secret.”
So with Betfair’s Labour leadership market now reaching the £1m mark what should punters do? I have long thought that the one thing between Brown and Number 10 could be what the ex-Tory PM, Harold Macmillan, once described as “events, dear boy, events”.
The main problem is that it is hard to make a case for an alternative candidate. I’ve yet to be convinced of David Miliband though I have got some covering money on him. My main reaction has been to reduce slightly my exposure if Brown does not do it.
A lot now depends on how relentless the Times is in continuing the story during the crucial next few weeks ahead of the May elections and whether this approach has Rupert Murdoch’s backing? If it does then other parts of the stable will ratchet up the rhetoric. The Brown price has tightened to 0.22/1.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
But have you seen this in the Guardian? Looks like you are over-stating media opposition to GB.
http://politics.guardian.co.uk/comment/story/0,,2048151,00.html
And this, those hoping for jobs are rallying round:
http://politics.guardian.co.uk/labourleadership/story/0,,2048023,00.html
Murdoch applying pressure regarding the Ofcom enquiry, perhaps?
I still think that, apart from his own (mis) handling of things, that the way the Murdoch papers helped force Byers from office, was Murdoch’s revenge for Byers having blocked his bid to take over Man Utd. It was also very much pour encourager les autres, ie ‘This is what happens to politicians who cross me’.
I’m not, on the other hand, someone who sees Murdoch’s influence everywhere, when, as other people have noted, he tends to identify (likely) winners and back them, rather than creating them. The Sun’s front page didn’t help in 92, but Labour would have lost anyway, when it was behind the Tories on leadership and economic competence. There were also all the Labour voters who’d left the electoral register to escape the poll tax (in each of the eleven seats on which the Tory majority rested in 92, the number of people who had left the electoral register was greater than the Tory majority).
As for Brown, he’s suffering what David Davis went through (though it probably won’t have the same outcome), namely the media’s dislike of tall poppies and foregone conclusions.
Douglas Alexander the transport minister called for a challenge, surprised pb did not cover that, unlike Clarke and Milburn Alexander is credible
My sense of the pensions story is that it might be of interest to people it affects but they will have made their decision on where the blame lies by now without help from the Times. I had money with the Equitable and It lost a quarter of it’s value overnight but it wasn’t the Treasury’s fault!
I loved this bit from ‘History Boy’s’ link talking about Brown and Dacre;
“It may also, as one Mail journalist suggested to me, be an example of how the two weirdest boys in the playground are often drawn to each other. But there is, I think, a natural affinity in the two men’s moral outlooks”
Test - if it’s the interview I saw, the question put to him was whether he agreed with Margaret Beckett that any challenger would be a ’sacrificial lamb’ and he was merely distancing himself from what she said.
It seems to me that although there’s a lot of anger on this story, it’s as much the Times making the most of their story as anything else, I don’t think there’s a lot of votes in attacking the man who blocked FoI requests to release details of how he made decisions 9 years ago, although it doesn’t reflect well on him.
And many thanks to Roger for your kind words yesterday - I’ve been a bit down about the level of discussion here recently - so was much appreciated.
Test. Was that on Marr yesterday? He spoke well of Miliband but I didn’t hear him actually call for a contest. I think he said he wasn’t against one.
Re 5 & 8. Alexander actually said: “people should feel entitled” to stand as long as they had a “positive” agenda. That does not sound like a call for a contest - rather a limitation.
6 - quite right Roger. And the evidence of the polls on who they blame is…. Gordon Brown!
Kenneth Clark is definately the best leader the Tories never chose. He’s giving a much more nuanced account of the Times story despite the fact that as chancellor he didn’t remove tax relief whereas Lamont and Brown did.
I’ve never thought Cameron would win the next election but always thought Clarke could have.
re 11. And Ken Clarke, unlike most in his party, was against the war.
12. Exactly! Fortunately you can always trust the Tories to choose unwisely!
I would be very surprised if the public don’t tire of Cameron’s syrupy and self regarding and I don’t rate his chances of surviving the kind of scrutiny a leader in an election has to face. Clark always seemed a man of the people and more importantly has the experience to be trusted.
Ken Clarke admitted in an interview that had he won he would have been devisive.
And as far as the Labour leadership is concerned I suspect that their problem is that private polling doesn’t produce anyone who gets a better rating against Cameron than Brown ( or Blair).
Roger,
“I don’t rate [Cameron's] chances of surviving the kind of scrutiny a leader in an election has to face.”
And what would Brown’s chances have been of surviving that scrutiny if he had been Leader of the Opposition? Fortunately for him he won’t have to face it. Brown should expect to be tested by fire - either by a real vote of his party against a meaningful opponent, or through ordeal by the media. If there is a coronation of Brown, then the risk is that his ordeal by media will be protratced, distracting and a cause of great damage to both Brown and Labour.
Despite being in the public eye for ten years, we really know very little about Brown (and arguably that which we know many don’t find attractive). In that ten years he has seen very little of the “heat of battle” - although you do have give credit to his diary secretary, whose crystal ball has enabled him to be somewhere else every time the sh1t-flinging starts. There doesn’t seem to be any enthusiasm for the idea that he is the best Prime Minister to-be that Britain has - rather, he had first dibs and if you don’t give him the job he’ll pull a Violet Elizabeth Bott and “scream and scream until I’m sick”…
So it’s anything for the quiet life, let him have a go… which may work for internal Labour politics, but risks a heavy price with the electorate. What they will have pointed out by the media is a party that, because of its refusal to have a proper contest, has foisted upon them an evasive grumpy, dour, spinning Scot who has embraced Enron economics.
13. how many months have you been saying people will tire of Cameron for now?
Anyway, never mind the pensions; here is something to brighten Cameron’s morning. He’s been voted Britain’s second best dressed man (after Daniel Craig). Maybe I should start cutting down my tie usage!
15. I think that’s a very good point. If Labour were now in opposition Brown would probably not even get on the ballot. It is always the Government’s to lose and the electorate is so conservative (small c) that unless the government have really disgraced themselves they prefer the devil they know.
tpfkar at 7 is about right, I think. As I mentioned on another thread, the Times asked me for my views, but then left them out, only printing the views of MPs who supported the story. But this is standard operating procedure if you think you’ve got a good story - you try to find things that extent it and people to support it. I think the Times is just being a newspaper.
Regardless of the merits of the issue, “Who said what in 1997?” seems to me unlikely to run for long. The number of people who raised it in yesterday’s canvass was zero.
“He’s been voted Britain’s second best dressed man”
…..And many thanks to the readers of Conservative Central Office review!
17….
and the Govt have disgraced themselves innumerable times.
The best analysis of Cameron that I have read came from two Labour mp’s in the midst of a bit of puff about New Labour in the future in The Observer last week
Cameron is a continuation of the “Emminent Churchillians” in their view. Andrew Roberts argues in his book of that name that in the 40’s and 50’s the country lost its way because of a lack of dynamic leadership on the political right. “Emminent” is entirely ironic.
By this analogy Cameron will win power by accomodating with the new left wing agenda - on environment for instance - but will have no agenda of his own and lack the dynamic leadership to confront the world as it is.
Cameron is a tribal Tory. As long as they are in power, he has achieved his purpose. What he does thereafter is all a bit vague
21. That’s interesting, personally I should think he is more interested in the immense power being PM will bestow on him rather than for the sake of getting the Tories back in office
OT - I dont think this has been reported before:
http://www.peterboroughnow.co.uk/ViewArticle.aspx?ArticleID=2194418&SectionID=845
20 Clearer evidence of a Tarquin you will never see! The lady’s name is ThatCher, MTF!! LOL
On the SCottish elections this is a useful summary of key seats to watch:
http://news.scotsman.com/politics.cfm?id=505592007
23 That’s good news Rik W, but hardly surprising.
Looking forward to meeting Stewart, and you, at the PB Party and Book Launch on the 17th.
18 Nick Palmer it will run as long as the couple of million or so pension holders who suffered still remember.
Rik (23) - I see why your leader is encouraging his MPs not to wear ties.
18. But if Labour can get through that, then by enserfing an even larger chunk of the population by obliging them to turn to means-tested benefits, the policy will have been a success.
27 Nick Palmer forgets this is a local election. Come the GE, all the sleaze and other misdeeds will be paraded before the electorate.(and there’s LOTS of it
A change of leader will make no difference IMHO. History is repeating itself. If Brown gets it, the Blairites will be in revolt and vice versa if it’s a Blairite.
25 - strange Dundee East is not on the list - we are defending a majority of 90.
Peter the Punter.
Have you thought of changing your dogs name to see if that improves your luck?
How about Mighty Winter Day ?
26 - you too Peter. I must send you a cheque!
32 We thinking of Mud, St John. That’s what his name’s been lately.
The question about the Brown pensions matter is whether this story has legs? Will it be in the newspapers one week after it started last week?
We will soon see if by Thurs the story is still going and if it is then Brown’s reputation will be incurring damage.
I still hold to my view that the bulk of pensioners that will be affected by this are those retiring in the 2020s and beyond.
33 Would that be for the Party, Rik, or you just feeling sorry for me?
30 MTF, Can you please correct the spelling of Lady Thatcher name in your byline!
Thanks.
Mike S I have tried twice to post a comment on the pensions row and its side effects, and twice it has not appeared, probably caught in the spam filter. I can see nothing in it that is an obvious cause.
35.
yest but there are countless 000’s, of pensioners coming up to retirement in the next 5 yrs who have lost all or part of their pension, the FAS and PPF only help to a certain extent (max 80% methinks) and help doesn’t kick in till your 65. So if your retirement age is 55 60 or 62.5 yrs, you are caught in the pensions trap twice.
I agree that there will be millions affected post 2020, largely because final salary pension schemes are/have closing/closed in huge numbers. The real pensions time bomb as you say is post 2020
38. There are some spam blockers to stop people offering financial services - maybe you’ve violated one of those with relevant terms.
39. Showns how much more efficient Gordo is - too Blair years as PM to get a legacy (Iraq). GB has managed to ensure his even before he gets the job
37. He might have a speech impediment…
The dog’s last race was an open one - Can you not try a closed race only open to no hopers with 3 legs?
38 Witan - email me a copy and I’ll see if I can find what’s wrong.
23 Rik W. I’m sure Stewart will be thrilled that you posted that awful picture of him. Frankly he looks like a prime mover in the Kray twins fan club.
…………………
OT. From the latter part of last nights thread it appears, in “Poly” I have another fan in the “Who is Jack W Club ?”
Apparently “Poly” is working on the interesting theory that I am Rik’s long lost twin brother, seperated and lost at birth. So far she’s found out that :
1. Rik is tall and ex SDP and I’m devilishly handsome.
2. Rik is ex SDP and tall and I’m witty and debonair.
3. Rik is taller and former SDP and I’m rich and affluent.
4. Rik is former SDP and taller and I’m upright and pure.
So Poly’s made a deal of progress !!
36 - I cant afford any donations other than to my election campaign!
O/T this thread, but which have been commented on in the last couple of days on this blog
The vitriol on this blog is irritating. I’m an old fashioned liberal, so I have no party at all to speak for me, although clearly one to be against. I like hearing the right wing arguments, but not the personal b****x. The so called “creatures of the night” don’t add anything but are blissfully brief. Not so others……………
The quality of dispassionate comment here is the main reason for not being on Guido, Dale etc. The web is full of ranting; you don’t have to look for it too hard. All power to Palmer, Herdson, Benedict White, Snowflake, Yokel, Rod Crosby (where has he gone to lately?), and even SeanT (when brief). Ditto Mike.
Mike’s politics are obvious – I don’t care because he does not rant and it’s his blog, so what’s the problem? As GB is the first ever politically successful Labour Ch of Ex in its history MS perhaps does not give him due credit and is a bit obsessive compulsive about the man. I have a profound moral objection to Mike’s thoroughly amoral view of the Iraq war, but let’s not go there, as it is old ground.
If this contribution is historical it is because I have had to copy Saturday’s blog into Word so I can use an hour on the train to read it on Sunday. How do you guys find the time?
The real damage to GB in all this is trust. Coming after his ‘too tricky by half’ budget the whole question of truth and trust in politics is right there in the front line.
The public are sick of politicians who are deceitful and untrustworthy and the pensions raid looks to have been yet another attempt to deceive us all which is being unpicked and revealed by the media at precisely the wrong time for him.
Well it serves him right.
Brown has managed for too long to be shielded by Blair on the question of trust but now he is being exposed as more of the same, without the charm.
46.” I cant afford any donations other than to my election campaign! ”
but if you donate to PtP’s party, he can be so grateful that he’ll send his dog to leaflet Peppard for free
45. Jack W - did you really just post a comment under ‘Poly’?
“I have tried twice to post a comment on the pensions row and its side effects, and twice it has not appeared, probably caught in the spam filter”
That figures!.
43 That’s a bit extreme Icarus (aka Innocent Abroad).
His problem is not lack of speed. He is in fact very fast. Unfortunately, he’s not very good at taking bends. (I sympathise; I have the same trouble in my car.) Now obviously this is a bit of a handicap for a racing greyhound, since straight dogtracks are rarer than Brown supporters on PB.com. However, we have hit on a possible solution. If he fails to deliver next time, we’re booking him in for surgery and having his two inside legs shortened.
We think this is more likely to produce results than your own rather radical suggestion of having a whole leg removed, although we may revert to that if the shortening remedy does not assist.
[52] 43 was Icarus, PtP, although - eerily - I had been thinking about posting along the same lines. I’m not convinced by your solution, though - he’ll have trouble on the straights if you do that. Perhaps if you can find a circular track …
You may be right about Alexander! Violet Elizabeth Bott, ha ha that is brilliant, although I’m showing my age!
Good article Mike, but as you say it is a question of there being a credible alternative. If David “I won’t run unless I do” Miliband doesn’t run, and he won’t unless he is going to win and win the following GE then who is there?
Mike S Email sent.
If you think the ranting’s been bad recently, you should have been here when Sarah J was around.
If you want a(nother?) fairly rant-free blog, try Paul Linford. http://www.vote-2007.co.uk was also fairly civilised the last time I went there (though its predecessor blogs were notoriously vitriolic).
Re 24, Peter I suspect that was a typo. Maggie Thatcher fan also contributes to my blog.
BBC News 24 reporting that Adair Turner, head of CBI in 1997 has said that Ed Balls’ story about CBI lobbying for change in Pension Tax credits is ‘completely untrue’…..this is not going to go away anytime soon. Having read the documents while some warn of issues, others say its manageable…the issues here are I suspect not so much what was the advice at the time (it was mixed) but why did the Treasury try to keep it private for two years, and why are they dissembling (at best) now.
There is no cvredible alternative because there is no credible alternative dialogue within the Labour Party. That is why it dumbs down to GB’s character.
Alexander, Milburn, Clarke, even Milliband are all saying basically the same thing as Brown.
Is it only me that thinks Milliband would be a a complete PR lightweight if elected leader?
53 Innocent Abroad (aka Icarus) - As I get you two confused regularly, I have decided to twin my posts.
It’s true the remedy may not work but at least we’ll be able to catch him. At present, when the other dogs turn left at the first bend, he goes straight on, hurdles the rail and tears off down Walthamstow High Street. It’s a bugger finding him and he’s costing us a fortune in fines for traffic violations.
60 No. Not just you, John.
[61] At least you can console yourself that there are no dog tracks inside the Congestion Charge zone…
The one thing that people seem to be missing in response to Mike’s question is the obvious. He says - “The main problem is that it is hard to make a case for an alternative candidate”, which is probably very fair. But if I was to phrase the question in this way - an election of all current Labour MP’s to be Leader - who would win. I would expect, by a landslide, one T. Blair He is the serious, credible, alternative to Brown, as he has been for the last few years. I do wonder at what point the majority of the Labour party will wake up to this fact and ask him to ‘reconsider’ his timetable for departure.
Re 60, John, “Is it only me that thinks Milliband would be a a complete PR lightweight if elected leader?”
No. I agree. He can’t shave either
BBC News is stating that Adair Turner (CBI) has denied the Ed Balls claim that companies backed the pension tax decision in 1997.
Maybe the story is getting legs because the rebuttals made by Labour are being challenged?
50 Scallywag. I have several “house guests” presently and one forgot to take their details from one of my computers and I didn’t notice it first thing !!
“Poly” is also a chap …. clearly a case of a Poly Fella !!
…. I’ll not let him forget this clanger in a hurry !!!!!!!.
Who’s a pretty boy then !!
IA and I are two completely different people, you may be confused because we both post sensible balanced (ie Lib Dem) pieces. Sorry I have not actually seen your pooch race - not being allowed in the betting shop after 6pm (or any time at all in fact!) I thought he had lost a leg already.
I admit I once posted under the pseudonym “Kenneth Clarke” which fooled a few people for 10 minutes or so and am tempted to issue an “I am definitely standing” signed David Miliband and see if the press quotes it; but to keep using different identities is silly.
I claim Mike used lots of names in the early days, to make the site seem more alive than it really was. Some of his inventions Jack W and Rik W (note the common factor) then took on existences of their own, as can easily happen in cyberspace
60. John Wheatley. I think the opposite is the case. I think its only me, on here at least, who thinks Miliband would grow into being a great leader.
Blair would be a disaster if he continued. His foreign policy has reduced him from the most popular Prime Ministers ever to one of the most unpopular. Even his domestic work is now looking shambolic with Trident and schools relying on Tory votes….and that’s before we get on to the botched Cabinet changes that saw Margaret Beckett promoted to Foreign Secretary during the Lebanese crisis.
He should have gone before the last election
59. I think you are right. The issue is now hardly relevant, but the fact that GBs right hand man is alleged to have said something that is `completely untrue’ is going to get the media excited, particularly as it is from a man who is in a position to know.
The story will now move on to integrity and that is much more damaging for Brown than the pensions issue (where I happen to agree that the policy was not responsible for the the `demise’ of final salary schemes - a stock market crash and other factors were far more significant).
67. Very naughty of one of your ‘house guests’ to sneak into your study, come on here late at night, and threaten to unmask you.
64 - quite right, it’s got to the stage where I actually want Blair to stay on. He’s certainly the only senior figure in the Labour party to have a prayer of keeping a majority.
65 Millbore will never get a proper job in cabinet, let alone be PM until he learns how to shave properly.
OT. Scottish Tories to set out their manifesto. Awful pic of Goldie used by the Beeb, she badly needs a shave !! :
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/6516425.stm
………………..
68 Icarus. Any comparisons between Rik and I are absolutely …… libellous !!
68 - IA and I are two completely different people, you may be confused because we both post sensible balanced (ie Lib Dem) pieces
Not sure IA is going to return the compliment if you say things like that
PtP,
That idea of leg shortening may be closer to the truth than meets the eye! Does he literally have problems changing direction smoothly?
Also, have you had the dog’s eyesight checked?
[68] Watch it. I am not now nor have I ever been a Lib Dem - I most certainly do not want Jack W and that awful squawking parrot of his coming round
72 Scallywag. Amongst family and friends my participation and anonymity on PB is a standing joke and I take endless ribbing for my “art” !!
However I’m sure one day a “PB Peter Tatchell” will out me and the puzzle will be solved …. and a good chuckle will be had by all !!
68 Icarus/Innocent Abroad
You say you are two separate peole but has anybody ever seen you together in the same room? I think not.
As for Jack W and Rik W, I have long suspected they are not real people but in fact ethereal creatures conjured up in cyberspace by Mad Mike Smithson. Your post confirms this.
The other part of the Ed Balls defence also fell apart yesterday and tried to claim Brown was only following Lamont’s example so the Tories were doing the same thing in stages.
But the Tories put out a statement saying that:
” Kenneth Clarke, had received representations in the mid 1990s to do what Mr Brown did in 1997 - and had rejected the move as likely to damage the economy.”
And if I were Ed Balls (which thank the Lord I am not, sir) I wouldn’t tangle with our Ken on these things. Not if he wants to keep his namesake.
76 That’s an interesting suggestion, Yokel.
Do Specsavers accept greyhounds as clients?
The Times’ hostility to Brown is almost certainly being driven by Mary Ann Sieghart who has been trying to launch a Miliband campaign for months.
I question your description of The Times as Murdoch’s “flagship.” Murdoch has made clear that the Sun is his flagship. Whichever way it turns, that’s the way Murdoch is thinking. The other News Corp papers have much more of a licence to disagree.
Jack - when were you last in Scotland - a fizogg like that on a woman is I believe highly prized north of the Tweed.
I’m off to Cornwall tomorrow, for Easter. Here’s the weather forecast.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/5day.shtml?id=3729
Almost unheard of. Kernow bys Vyken!
“Do Specsavers accept greyhounds as clients?”
If they do he can get two pairs for the price of one if he’s quick!
79 - You say you are two separate peole but has anybody ever seen you together in the same room?
I think I have actually, at the first PB party…
83. Lol (despite myself!)
What we are looking at is an econonomic disaster with the REAL national debt bigger than the GDP (including PFI, rail and pension liabilities) with a Robert Maxwell style pension situation. This is why the Tories are now ahead on the economy and why Brown is dead meat as a possible election winner. It is a myth that he has run the economy well and things can only get worse.
81. Just wondering if his peripheral vision is a bit wonky.
IIRC what you said he a) likes to literally be right behind the hare and add that to b) has issues taking corners (I assume he travels on a bit to far at each bend then over adjusts by crashing across towards the rail).
Thank you - Sorry book value I was confusing you with Innocent Abroad!!!!
P the P Yokel is right. If the dog does this all the time then you might have a serious physical problem with him. I have dog with bad eyesight and under street lights he skitters all over the place when off the lead because he sees shadows oddly. Dog racing is under lights mostly, isn’t it? That could be a contributory factor as he ‘loses’ the hare and pack on corner lighting changes? Then fixes on something else that appears to move?
Just a thought.
83 Icarus. Perhaps in parts of Glasgow and some of the Edinburgh pubs that Max frequents. However I tend to prefer my wimmin not to have the appearance of a box of spanners with twelve layers of polyfila …. or indeed “poly fella” !
89 - blinkers or a visor?
90 - I know, I know, all the non-Tory-propagandists merge into one after a while
82 Indeed MAS has been gunning for an anyone but Brown candidate for months. It is fascinating how much hostillity Brown manages to stimulate in the establishment.
Can the establishment stomach a non-English, non-Oxbridge PM who is intellectually more gifted than them? Probably not.
So Brown is a risk for Labour, because he is an outsider. And yet that is a very good reason to elect him. The very last thing the UK needs is another lawyer or low grade oxbridge PPE clone in no 10.
Discuss.
93. Contact Lenses? Or how about a monocle?
Sorry for being off topic but perhaps fellow PBers can elighten me on this.
The Iranian hostages. The UK says that they were in Iraqi waters, Iran says Iranian.
Surely in these days of constant satelite tracking etc, someone independent knows the “truth”.
With recent memories of WMD the Iranians are playing on the minds of many in UK who will now question whether the UK government position is the truth. The longer it goes on, the more doubts will be raised.
Is there no country (or organisation)in the world that could independently review the facts? Have we really created a world that polarised?
What are the odds on a UK backdown and apology due to “faulty equipment”? Iran would appear to be holding the Aces.
94 - BV, Please, please don’t merge with ColinW. A cross between Charles Hawtrey and…..
indeed :horror:
Re 70 Roger, “Blair would be a disaster if he continued. His foreign policy has reduced him from the most popular Prime Ministers ever to one of the most unpopular.”
No, Blair has never been the most popular prime minister, that was John Major, who gained the most votes ever in 1992.
Labour Leadership 2007 - Leader Changeover Date July 26th
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Labour_Party_%28UK%29_leadership_election%2C_2007
100 - if the contest is called on 31 May! Hardly a scoop.
‘Latest News’ on BBC News website:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/6516861.stm
Interstingly does not refer to Ed Balls’ claim, but describes him as ‘The Treasury’. Whether this story runs will depend in part on whether editors think it resonates with their readers demographics - step forward Torygraph and Times……
Roger, do you believe Gordon Brown would be a better bet electorally for the Labour Party than Tony Blair? On current form, I don’t think he would. Are you assuming there is a vast body of lefties who have deserted Labour who would come back, and that this would replace the loss of the ’soft’ Labour vote which is basically dependent on TB?
A Polish greyhound went to the optician.
Optician: “Can you read the bottom line”
Polish Greyhound: “Read it? That’s my trainer!”
103. A lot of Brown supporters do think that. They are making exactly the same mistake the Tories made after 1997…many times the refrain was heard ‘if only we had more robust policies on Europe, crime, etc. the traditional supporters who deserted us in 1997 will come flocking back’. They didn’t.
88. Interesting you raise the Robert Maxwell connection - Browns right hand man during the time when this decision was made was none other the Geoffrey Robinson, whose credits include being MD of Jaguar (when they filled fields across the Midlands with Harvest Gold XJ12’s during the petrol crisis), working for the aforementioned Maxwell and of course the bankruptcy of the car parts company he founded, Trans Tec.
In fact Robinson has a lonmg and dubious track record:
http://www.cwn.org.uk/politics/mps/geoffrey-robinson/index.html
I suspect pensioners everywhere will be thanking Gordon for bringing the Robinson ‘golden touch’ to their retirement income.
97. Mike I believe that the BBC or someone went to where the vessel that they were searching was moored and lo and behold in Iraqi waters according to a handheld GPS.
103.Cookie. I don’t think Blair has much of a personal vote anymore. I think a lot of Labour voters went elsewhere at the last election or stayed at home. Many of them are likely to come back depending on what the next leader does. They would never have come back with Blair. Again depending on how the next leader shows themselves I don’t see any reason why they should lose many votes that came Labour’s way in 05
89 If you’d posted that yesterday, Yokel, I would have known it’s a wind-up but I’ll take it seriously.
He does indeed try to follow the behind the hare. When the trap opens he veers right. That’s OK because he’s a fast starter. He then cuts in sharply to the point of the bend on the first turn (he doesn’t really hare off down the High St - I was making that up) which is fine, for him, if he has the lead, as he just carves up all the other dogs. He then swings wide out of the turn and runs the back straight directly behind the hare. That’s OK because his straight line speed is very good. The real problem comes at the next turn, when he slows up, regardless of whether he has other dogs about him. It’s as if he thinks he’s going too fast and slows down to take the corner better, rather like a not-very-good driver. This has cost him a few races now and we’ve puzzled over it. One theory is that he is distracted by the kennels, which are at that part of the course. Another, similar to your own, is that the lights confuse him. Whatever it is, it costs him vital yards.
Finally, he does swing wide again off the last bend but he runs on and is back up to full speed by the time he crosses the line, so it’s not that he fails to stay.
I’ll mention the ‘eyesight’ theory to my co-owners. Not sure if there is anything could be done about it, but it’s worth thinking about.
96 Ian. Or a pince-nez ??
97 - Conspiracy Theorists here we come… Clearly someone took the idea from Bond - Tommorow Never Dies
Re 84 SeanT I quoted you on my blog as Sean Thomas, but could not confirm the spelling of your surname from your blog, is that correct?
104. I don’t get this. I also didn’t get the “saffron” crossword puzzle answer, a day or two ago.
Er, does early fatherhood impact on IQ levels?
100/101. Holy good god, why so long?
If my guess is right, Tony will announce he’s standing down within days of the May elections and conveniently with devolution apparently up and running in Northern Ireland.
That guess may be completely wrong if it takes them 3 weeks to announce a contest.
112. Well that’s a new and clever way of getting people to check yr blog!
Yep, spelling right.
113 - The Saffron crossword clue was an anagram - “bananas” = anagram, “for fans” being the thing to be anagrammed, “Yellow” being the answer. As for the Polish ‘joke’, I’ve no idea…
Sean T. Polish names have few vowels and read like an eyesight chart. It was used in a Beer ad. I got it but a lot didn’t
Re 115, SeanT *cough* Innovative marketing
Those of us who feel short changed by the efforts of PtP’s dog appear to have been vindicated :
http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/40456000/jpg/_40456151_specs_dog203_ap.jpg
[117] I always knew Lech Walensa wasn’t a proper Pole…
116, 117. I hate crosswords. “the refuge of an idle mind”. At least that’s my excuse for being so dim.
I have no excuse for not getting the Polish joke. Apart from the fact it’s probably meant to be seen with a picture of a dog looking at a row of consonants.
Senility beckons.
109. Nah, I wouldn’t wind you up about him Peter, as a dog lover myself its obvious he’s a genuine animal, just needs a bit of luck.
The only other thing that comes to mind is indeed an imbalance. When he runs wide thats ok because he has more turning space but if he’s tight he can’t. That doesn’t seem to fit with how he runs however.
Is the Stow right or left handed?
119 LOL!
At least nobody’s suggested a white stick yet.
119 -
Curiously, that’s always how I’d imagined Ms. Nuala’s four-legged companion to look.
I thought a cartoon might help explain things even further just in case - http://www.cartoonstock.com/newscartoons/cartoonists/pre/lowres/pren48l.jpg
122 Thanks Yokel. Glad that somebody is actually being kind about my dog. He tries his heart out every time, which is more than can be said for some of the horses I back.
It’s left-handed. I thought all dog-tracks were?
125 Bravo Jimbo!
O/T, but could we have another article about France, Mike, soon?
121. Apologies to Sean T. I was the purveyor of the Saffron clue.
126 PtP. OTOH …. perhaps your pooch isn’t too keen on the outfits he runs in !!
http://www.gettysburgvillage.com/images/Supergirl.jpg
128 - especially now that Le Pen seems to be attracting support from a small section of the muslim community. Sarkozy seems to get a lot of people’s backs up, so the elction could be much closer than the polls appear to indicate
117-Interesting Polish jokes are still ok a long time since gay, black, etc jokes were banished.
Roger, if Poles were black, would you still be making these jokes? Guess not.
126. Not a backer on the dogs even though one of my bets pals father is a dog racer of many a year, so track direction is a mystery to me.
Does he stay tight at the 3rd bend whilst swinging wide everywhere else and does he tilt is head noticeably when he is swinging wide, a la like a horse when it head hangs?
131 Great, Jack, but the Stow has no telephone box for him to change in.
Nick Palmer is wrong not to believe that this story hasn’t got legs and will run and run.The long term damage can only be accessed after the Easter recess when today’s Tory newspapers suggest that the Tories will go on the attack.It will be easy to blame Gordon Brown for the poor returns many pensioners are now getting when they retire. There is also the issue of the problem with local government pension schemes and the knock on effect on the council tax. Every year my own council is putting an extra £1m into its pension fund because of the shortfall. This is equivalent to a 2.5% increase on the council tax
PENSIONS CRISIS (unless you are an MP)
ITV News have announced they will assess the damage to Brown’s leadership credibility at 1.30
That picture of Annabel Goldie makes her look like a refugee from ‘Prisoner Cell Block H’.
On topic, I think it’s time for opposition parties to back off Brown, if they’re not careful he might not become PM and somebody more electable will be in his place.
132 I wondered how long it would be before someone complained about Roger being racist, greyhoundist or optometrist….
He comes in tight at all the bends Yokel, and always swings wide off them. He doesn’t appear to slow on the first two bends though - not noticeably anyway - but the way he slows into the third bend is very striking.
Haven’t noticed him ‘hanging’ but I’ll watch for it next time.
According to the Glasgow Herald all the opposition parties are going to use the pensions issue in the Scottish election. An article in the paper directly links poor pension returns to Gordon Brown.
On the constant attacks on Brown, this is undoubtedly a full on attempt to cripple the man.
The problem is that the lethal blow is not being struck so I’m guessing his opponents have goen for the living hell approach.
It appears that many in his party are lukewarm on the man BUT, he still looks on course for the top job fairly easily. It’s when he gets the top job that the real problems are going to be.
For me the other interesting thing about the `PENSIONS CRISIS’ is how badly team Brown are handling it. It would be so much better for them to focus on how the cut in corporation tax (paid for by tax credit abolition) has stimulated a strong economy. I actually think Brown’s case on this is perfectly defensible so why are they getting in to territory about what the CBI said and so on. It is a schoolboy error to talk about who said what in private meetings because you can’t win on that ground. Brown is normally so much better at handling these things - he is a master. I think he needs to get back from Afghanistan as soon as possible because Balls is ballsing it up.
139, So I take it then, he swings wide of the corners then makes his way in down the straights or cuts in right on the corners before swinging wide on the way out.
97. Iran hostages: “Like most senior Royal Navy officers, Commodore Nick Lambert has great reserves of professional expertise and common sense. The Coalition task force commander was aboard HMS Cornwall when 15 Royal Navy personnel serving on the frigate were seized at gunpoint by Iranian forces on March 23. A few hours after the 15 were seized, Cdre Lambert said: ‘There is absolutely no doubt in my mind that they were in Iraqi territorial waters. Equally, the Iranians may well claim that they were in their territorial waters. The extent and definition of territorial waters in this part of the world is very complicated.’ ”
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/news/newscomment.html?in_article_id=445896&in_page_id=1787&in_a_source=
There isn’t international agreement on the boundary line. So GPS data doesn’t resolve it. Blair was very forceful on saying there was no doubt the Brits were in Iraqi waters. This is his mini-Falklands. Should greatly help Labour in the May elections.
peter the Punter My wife is a dog trainer (agility and obedience) and collective further thoughts are:
- is the furniture around the tracks he runs all the same (kennels in the same place, punters taking photos etc). Something might be disturbing him (dogs need shrinks too, sometimes). For example, it is noticeable in agility how many fast dogs go slow on the ramp and stop and look around from seven feet or so in the air and seem to say,’ Oooh, what are they all looking at me for’ and after that their rhythm and pace are lost
- Greyhounds are sight hounds. If you put your hand over one eye and move your finger in front of his nose- about two feet away- does his uncovered eye follow your finger?
- is there more noise ( or different noise) on the sides of the corner he moves away from? He may have a sensitivity in one ear or both ears? Or their be a noise that has left a pavlovian response in him.
-have you ever thought he has taken a bribe to throw the race? Bonios are expensive these days and a dog in kennels has to bribe the guards more and more for them.
144 Barnesian. “Should greatly help Labour in the May elections.”
Save one teensy weensy fact …. It’s part of the most unpopular war in British electoral history !!
141 The establishment really are going full throttle for Brown with rumour, innuendo and half truths (e.g a Pensions “crisis”, which has as much to do with payment holidays and the dot com bubble).
The establishment is truely awesome to behold. Increasingly this all feels like the end of King Kong. Let’s hope we get a different ending.
OT: WA Poll
Cant confirm how accurate this is (will have to wait until Thursday) but apparently showing L:35% PC:24% C:24% LD:11% Oth:4%
[145] You have an agile & obedient wife, Witan? Does she have any unmarried sisters?
” This is his mini-Falklands. Should greatly help Labour in the May elections. ”
Falklands - War won quickly against a small force in an alien environment to them.
Iraq/Iran - War not won after years, things going very badly, fought by the UK in an alien environment.
This can only hurt labour in any forthcoming election, they are already blamed for this and the blame just becomes greater when anything adverse happens, anything else is wishful thinking.
The absolute worst situation would be if the US decide to attack Iranian nuclear facilities or something, this would create a massive rift in UK/US relations and put our troops in unnecessary danger. What are the chances?
Jonathan I can see Brown at the top of the Docklans tower now, fighting off the Cameronian biplanes and trying to save his Prudence.
149 Icarus No, less and less agile with the passing day. And she trains dogs in obedience, so I do what I am told.
148. Not good for the Libs.
24% for the Tories, a bit of an improvement then!
I suppose that the odds of David Miliband contesting the Labour leadership are as remote as Robbie Williams rejoining Take That !
146, 150. Sunday Telegraph poll yesterday:
“How far do you trust Blair and Beckett to resolve the [Iranian] crisis?”
66% trust them 28% don’t trust them.
This incident is playing differently from the Iraq war. If you are betting on any of the May elections, IMHO you should factor this in.
How can a reputable polling company do this?
http://www.arbroathtoday.co.uk/ViewArticle2.aspx?SectionID=5908&ArticleID=2217550
yougov did a Scotland poll four days later and found zero support for scottish voice. From 19% to 0% in four days!
This is not Blair’s Falklands war - it’s where he shows that he is as powerless as Jimmy Carter.
There is little chance of the Iranian captive issue helping the government out much. Not least with the tide against the government over Iraq, people are going to pan them from all sides of the argument if it drags out.
The Iranians know how to play this kind of game but, thankfully, I have seen some sanity coming from the government with the comments of Beckett that seem to have lowered the belligerent noise. It wasn’t helping.
156 - This is inextricable from the Iraq war.
156. On current form its next to irrelevant to voting intention. If they get home soon it’ll be forgotten by May.
If on the other hand it drags out the impact is pretty much one way, negative. There isn’t much gain in matters such as these at this stage.
Uk Paul
The chances of an attack on Iran this summer are high, if you read the chatter, whether this is pysops or not, who can tell.
132 The joke about the Polish greyhound is pretty innocuous. And don’t tell me you’ve never laughed at a joke involving any of the groups you mention!