Should Miliband learn from the Gordon of 1992?
April 10th, 2007
Is Miliband going to do it or not?
If the young environment secretary wants a good example of the dangers of not taking leadership chances when they occur he need look no further than Gordon Brown himself.
For one of the clear messages to come out of yesterday’s marathon showing of the 1992 general election results programme was the powerful position that Gordon had in the immediate aftermath of Labour’s defeat. The eventual replacement for Kinnock, John Smith, was being blamed for his pre-election “budget” and the potential leader that was being talked about was Brown.
It was not to be and after the sad death of John Smith two years later the party’s attention had turned to another blue eyed boy - Tony Blair.
Now, with a leadership election once again in the offing there’s just a hint that Gordon’s bid might unravel. The polls and the growing media hostility to Brown could just persuade David Miliband to go for it.
The careful wording of his denials have just left enough wiggle room should he decide to go for it in the aftermath of Labour’s likely losses on May 3rd.
Is he going to do it? I think he just might. Would he beat Brown? A lot depends on the media and the polls. Is he worth the current 6/1? Just about.
Mike Smithson
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I can’t get my head round it - on paper GB is a shoe in - mainly due to the electoral system.
But the bad news keeps on coming for Gordon - and the Brandindex and polling data is awful.
The future leadership of the Labour Party was decided by a private agreement in 1994. Surely you’re not suggesting that some ungrateful person might object to this?
The problem for Gordon Brown at the time was that in those days - before John Smith introduced One Member One Vote - the union leadership had a very big influence and John Smith had all the big unions on board.
However, I totally agree with your cental point - in politics you have to seize your moment. If Miliband does not go for it there will almost certainly be another blue eyed boy or girl to take his place in a couple of years time. A Gordon Brown cabinet will have at least 5 or 6 new faces in it, probably more by the time of the next election. His brother might want to take him on next time and that would be fun!
Was it Autumn 2004 when Tony Blair said he would not seek a fourth term? That makes nearly a 3 year leadership election campaign….no surprise it is getting bitter after so long, just that all of the candidates who could have had a good chance against Gordon seem to have fallen by the wayside for various reasons…on paper Miliband is probably not in the top 10 most qualified to challenge, but all others have died/resigned/given up/gone to Europe/been caught with their pants down.
As for what it means to be a LD, we should celebrate the diversity of thought in the party. Remember that we’re the only major party where the members set policy at conference, unlike the others where the leader ultimately decides. It’s refreshing to have a broad spectrum of opinion within the party - my views on some moral issues are minority views in the Lib Dems, but when it comes to big issues such as environment, social inequality, education, Iraq, taxation, I know why I am a Liberal!
I’d second Chris Took’s previous comments that he believes in a party which trusts people to think for themselves. As a result the various links to local issues are worth a passing mention as there’s an interest in what is happening in the fringes of the parties, but the abuse of the people who post them, as well as the claims that the parties are in meltdown over these local issues, adds little to the debate.
In case of interest IC Wales is running a dail Constit focus piece and prediction. Unsurprisingly they predict Bridgend as a Labour hold. Unsurprising as the anti Labour vote is hopelessly split between Liberal Democrat and Conservative.
re 4. what is a qualification for challenging? TB had had no ministerial experience at all in 1994 so Miliband is already one up on that.
to comment on the previous thread there aren’t going to be any election posters in Birmingham this year - which is I think a great pity. Apart from anything else they showed where the ward boundaries were.
{4} And the other reason that there are no senior credible candidates is….GB and his mates have been quick to undermine a colleague who seems to be getting his act together.
Miliband certainly ought to take a chance while he has one. GB’s political allies would be happy in any cabinet: the view would be ‘the king is dead, long live the king’.
If Miliband won, there’d only be one person sulking, and, like when Ted Heath sulked, it wouldn’t matter.
Excellent article Mike! No surprise to regular readers that I should applaud you on this one.
When The Mighty Smithson pronounces for Miliband all should listen. I know you are just short of that position but we are getting there. And the proponents of the “shoo-in” position shood(sic) take note.
4 members set policy but the leadership just dismisses those it knows are barking mad, so I wouldn’t crow too much about that.
All the major parties are full of members that claim people should be trusted - in power none of them actually wish to do so in case they make the wrong decision - no USP there.
The selling point of the Lib Dems is that they agree with you; a remarkably effective tactic that really shouldn’t work but does (albeit in a limited way).
We know that MP’s nominations are to be public, but I’m not sure still whether their votes are published or whether it’s secret ballot. If the latter, then it’s quite conceivable that Miliband’s vote in the PLP would be a fair bit higher than the number that would nominate him - reflecting the fact that everyone and his dog has pledged allegiance to GB and they don’t want to publicly move away from that.
I think the Yougov poll on members was interesting and showed a strong result for David Miliband among trade unionists - even though he wouldn’t expect to pick up (m)any official endorsements. The trouble for Brown is that it’s impossible for him to pick up any momentum - everyone has been convinced he’ll win and do it unopposed - anything less than that is going backwards.
What Miliband would have to do is spell out how he would be different from Brown. He doesn’t strike me someone that would enter a personality contest to win and needs to have a clear and appealing message to the party and to the country. I have no idea whether he will stand or not - I’m sure May 3rd will play a big role - but the person we should feel for the most at this moment in time is his Brownite brother Ed Miliband!
My hunch is that David is playing hardball with Brown to nudge him into taking different positions and make himself integral to the direction of a Brown government. I’m not convinced it will be effective and I think there’s a 25-30% chance he will end up standing. However from a punting perspective I see no merit whatsoever in backing David Miliband prior to him announcing his candidacy. He is still a likely non-runner and does not appeal at single digit odds.
Andrea re: the preceding thread
Nigel Farage has claimed ukip will field 1000 councillors plus
But a ukip person has said “if you include parish councillors”
Do you have national data, can you tell how many real council candidates (district/borough level), the kind we mean when we say “Labour loses 319″, ukip are fielding? if not dont worry but you seem the king of this kind of trivia
11 Out of interest Henry, what do you think his price would/should be if he declared ?
One quick question for Nick Palmer, should he be around:
For the record, do you think that
a) there should be a contest
b) there will be a contest
c) that if there is a contest Gordon Brown will win
d) if Gordon does not win, who might?
I think we will all be interested to see how these will weather the test of time. Don’t worry - we won’t dig it up too much in the future!
Incidentally, it was Gordon Brown’s failure to stand in the 92 leadership contest which, alongside Mo Mowlam’s malicious reaction to being rebuffed after she made a pass at him, led to all the speculation that he drove on the other side of the road.
14 All the MPs are off on their Easter holidays, poor lambs.
The short answer Mike is that if you get a shot you go for it. You don’t count your chances you make your chances count.
If not now then it may be never for David Miliband,Gordon has had his day.
If Miliband bottles it I think Hillary Benn would make a very viable candidate for the future.
14. Anatole. In Nick Palmer MP’s absence, I would predict his answers would be as follows:
a) Yes b) No c) Yes d) Not applicable
based on his previous contributions here.
11 So, Henry G, that’s a 30% chance he will stand? And shall we say a 30% chance he would win if he stood? That’s a 9% chance he becomes next PM, i.e. he’s a 10/1 shot.
Like you say, no value at single digit odds.
13. Well it all depends on how he handles it Paul, how much immediate momentum there is, whether Blair is seen to support him and most importantly how Brown reacts. I have no idea how much money the bookies have taken on Brown, I don’t imagine very much so I imagine Miliband’s price would be around 7/2 if it was to be a run-off between the two. My own view is that in reality he should be bigger than that since there’s a difference between runnig a credible bid and actually winning. I’d probably mark him up at 5s or 6s particularly if it looks like Brown has half the PLP nominating him.
1. “The problem for Gordon Brown at the time was that in those days - before John Smith introduced One Member One Vote - the union leadership had a very big influence and John Smith had all the big unions on board”
That’s what, more or less, Gorgeous George said on 1992 election night. The unions wouldn’t let Brown win over Smith
11. Henry “We know that MP’s nominations are to be public, but I’m not sure still whether their votes are published or whether it’s secret ballot”
Last time their vote was released.
15. Richard “Mowlam’s malicious reaction to being rebuffed after she made a pass at him”
It’s not that he refused Naomi Campbell, but Mo Mowlam!
12. Test, I don’t know the figures now. But I’m sure they’ll surface as soon as all councils will publish all people nominated
20. Bigger than that Peter - he should be 18/1 today. I might start laying him on Betfair Miliband fans!
22. If MPs votes are published then add another 4 or 5 pts onto Miliband’s odds. It’s sad that MPs would vote differently in secret but that’s politics.
22 Andrea, you sure you meant Naomi and not Ming Campbell?
BBC Scotland is holding a series of online webcasts and I thought that members might be interested to know that on April 12th 2007, they will be discussing the betting for the Scottish Parliament. You can find out more details at http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/6511017.stm
23 I was bending over backwards to be fair to Miliband, Henry G. As you know, I’m a fully paid up member of the Gordon’s A Shoo-in Society, and I was just trying to see how low I could make Mili’s odds, on the most favorable possible assumptions.
Somewhere between 10/1 and 16/1 feels about right.
11.”think the Yougov poll on members was interesting and showed a strong result for David Miliband among trade unionists ”
Miliband did better in the union section in the Brown/Miliband forced question. In the question with more names he didn’t better, Brown did worse than in the CLP section and both McDonnell and Meacher did better in the trade union section.
More than Miliband doing strongly among trade unionists, it was Brown not doing so well among them.
Infact among trade unionist in that poll Miliband was barely ahead of MM and McD (15%, 13% and 10%).
In the forced question McD and MM supporters seemed to switch to Miliband against Brown and there were more MM and McD supporers in the trade unions
Henry G and Ptp. There’s nearly £700 worth of punters stakes available to lay against Miliband on Betfair at single figure odds. Plenty of opportunity for you both.
29 StJohn - I’ve already laid him to lose £3k. There are limits even to my exceptional resources!
30. Ouch! Sorry to hear that Ptp. Hope Joe’s Edge does OK for you in that case.
I’ve not been paying much attention recently, but can we not expect Clarke to have a tilt “for the sake of a proper debate” if Miliband doesn’t?
24. I don’t if they’ll do it again though
32. Yes possibly but Clarke has little chance of doing well - it could end up very embarrassing for him.
32. James F. The latest and arguably likeliest contender if Miliband can’t find his backbone is John Reid according to weekend newspaper reports.
david kendrick @ 8 — you can’t blame Brown for the lack of rivals.
Where might the candidates have come from?
Soul of the party: Prescott — too old; Mo Mowlam — RIP.
ex-Chancellors: Brown — candidate.
ex-Foreign Secretaries: Cook — RIP; Straw & Beckett — too old.
ex-Home Secretaries: Blunkett — self-destruction; Clarke — failed to get a grip; Straw — see above; Reid — unpopular with party.
It is hardly Brown’s fault that Miliband is his most credible challenger. If Tony Blair wanted to stop Brown, he should have stepped down earlier.
36. ‘It is hardly Brown’s fault that Miliband is his most credible challenger.’
Neither is it Miliband’s fault!
Looking at some votes in 1994 contest. Some MPs voted Beckett for leader and Prescott for Deputy and other did the opposite.
If you think Prezza is good enough to be leader, you should consider him good enough also for Deputy, then why do you vote Beckett for Deputy? What’s the logic behind it?
I’m sure there must be something behind it, but I’m slow as you know…
I think everyone is completely ignoring a third scenario for Miliband. If Gordon is crowned leader without any serious challenge then there will be no moral mandate for him to be allowed to fight the next election should he not produce an upturn in Labour’s fortunes. There are still as many as 3 years until the next election - give Gordon a year and then launch a challenge.
31 No worries, StJohn. I’m perfectly comfortable with that. It’s not as scary as it sounds. In the event it starts to go seriously wrong, I can salvage something in lay-backs. I’ve also got some hedge bets on other possible candidates.
Anyway, you can’t say I don’t put my money where my mouth is!
As for JE, even the best horse in the race needs luck in the National but I’m feeling confident.
38. A protest vote against Blair for Leader, and in Deputy with a wider spread you vote for the candidate more in tune with you that’s why.
Refer you to 5 for WA predictions, if interest.
38. Different qualities required for different jobs Andrea. Hattersley was a lousy deputy leader and only wanted to be leader - Prescott on the other hand was a good deputy for a number of years but would have been the most appalling leader.
Personally I think Alan Johnson wants to be leader much more than Deputy, but clearly someone like Jon Cruddas has no inclination in being leader but a clear idea of what he’d do as deputy.
39. Labour’s rules make it even more difficult to launch a challenge against a sitting leader never mind PM than the Tory rules do, and look how hard the Tories found it to get rid of IDS, and they didn’t have to call a special conference of the entire party!
41. “protest vote against Blair for Leader, and in Deputy with a wider spread you vote for the candidate more in tune with you that’s why.”
well, but why don’t you vote for said person in the Leader race if you’re in tune with?
thanks. I’ll look at icwales. I’ve missed it
39. Alex, if Miliband isn’t going to launch a leadership bid against Brown during a formal leadership contest, he’s hardly going to try and bring him down once elected by the entire movement as leader. The Labour Party just doesn’t do that kind of thing!
BTW on the odds thing - Brown is 1.2-1.25 in the context of a situation where he is not expected to face a serious challenge. If Miliband joined in he would sure be at worst 7-2 probably closer to 3-1
What a start by Man U…3-0 against Roma after 18 mins!
Because it may not be a candidate 44 running for leader in tune with your idealogical views who has in anyway realistic chance of winning. Voting for Prezza who had no chance was simply a way of marking that. In Deputy more candidates with more chance of winning you vote for who you want. Plus of course you may prefer one or other to Prescott on a personal level possibly.
6-ChrisA, yes the right candidate may not be the most qualified. Cameron is surely a better example of taking a gamble on an inexperienced leader - 4 years as an MP compared to 11 for Blair, and 4 months as Shadow Education Secretary compared to however long as Shadow Home Secretary for Blair. I was saying if you write the ‘leadership CVs’ of the possible runners that Milibands is one of the less impressive - whether they would be any good as a leader or not is another matter.
8-my own view is that a couple of years in a more senior office will prepare him better for a leadership tilt, but I claim no inside knowledge.
And kingbongo @ 10, every party has their oddballs, especially parties you don’t agree with I suspect! The LD leadership is bound by conference votes - so not too much danger of a minority in the party taking over and setting policy - which is how it should be. And you can take cheap shots at the LDs all you like, but we’re the party who have stood up to the Government on issues such as Trident, Iraq, academies, spoken out on ID cards and the environment before anyone in Blue did, and haven’t suggested demonising or hugging hoodies. So I think I’ll wait to see some of your party’s policies before taking any lessons in not agreeing with whoever you’re speaking to!
42. Maybe you’re right, Henry.
The people with the split vote were:
Tony Benn (Prezza/Beckett), Roger Berry (Prezza/Beckett), Ronnie Campbell (Prezza/Beckett), Mick Clapham (Prezza(Beckett), David Davies (Prezza/beckett), Peter Hain (Beckett/Prezza), Terence Lewis (Beckett/Prescott), William McKelvey (Prescott/beckett), Andrew Mackinlay (Beckett/prescott), David Marshall (Prescott/Beckett), Terence Rooney (Beckett/Prescott), Brian Sedgemore (Beckett/Prescott),Llewellyn Smith (Prescott/Beckett) and David Winnick (Prescott/Beckett)
48.”Because it may not be a candidate 44 running for leader in tune with your idealogical views who has in anyway realistic chance of winning. Voting for Prezza who had no chance was simply a way of marking that”
it’s not that Beckett had any chance of winning the leadership
46 That’s not inconsistent with what Henry G and I have been saying about the odds, Alex. Obviously some would pare the Miliband price down more than others but it’s hard to make a case for backing at less than 10/1 as things stand.
51. I voted for Beckett. I wonder in what year will Labour have a female leader. It’s been 32 years since the Conservatives elected Thatcher. It’s pretty embarassing really for a party that prides itself on equality of opportunity. But with the likes of Harman and Blears, what can you do?
53. Correcting myself: ‘full-time and elected female leader’. Beckett of course regards herself as a former Labour leader when she stood in after Smith died.
53-”. I voted for Beckett. I wonder in what year will Labour have a female leader.”
Confess you did it just because you were a bloody leftist
(was she on the Left at the time? It’s sometimes difficult to keep track on Beckett’s movements on the political spectrum)
“It’s pretty embarassing really for a party that prides itself on equality of opportunity. But with the likes of Harman and Blears, what can you do? ”
Henry, we should champion a gay leader. ChrisBryant4Leader
39. You may have a point there - either Brown calls an election to coincide with the locals in May 2008 or he is under pressure to deliver Labour gains in those elections.
5. Punter, is that piece online?
46. Alex. And he’s only going to join in if the tide continues inexorably against GB. The first leg of the double is the hard bit. Whether he is prepared to stand? He would need to feel confident of victory to stand and to be overwhelmed by supporters. Hence his keeping the door ajar while we await the local election results. If these and the subsequent reporting against GB continues to be awful then he should and hopefully will stand.
My appraisal is that the odds against the first leg of the double presently are around 2/1, ie that he will eventually stand. Agreed here with Henry G and Ptp. The second leg I put at 6/4 or less that he would win having decided to stand. So the current odds on the double I would rate at 13/2. The bookies and Betfair currently agree pricing him at these odds or less.
I don’t think he will decide until after the local elections and then will have to decide quickly. If he goes for it the conditions will be right, the press and the public will be behind him and I would expect him to win.
I voted for Blair as leader,Beckett as Deputy Leader in 1994,as I felt Prescott would come across as a bit too thuggish,coarse to some people (not myself at the time:wink:)
55. I’d say she was centre-left (that year). I’ve never been a leftist, just never been that impressed by Blair. I worry that we have an appalling lack of talent on the back benches and that the PLP is quite apolitical at the moment. Full of middle managers.
58 That’s a pretty fair appraisal, StJohn.
And now, I’m going to watch the football. Who’s winning?
61. Great match Peter - Man U now 4-0 up!
60. “I’d say she was centre-left (that year). ”
Probably. The left generally supported her (but some went for Prescott) though (probably for lack of alternatives): Abbott, Austin, Banks, Canavan, Cohen, Corbyn, Fyfe, Gerrard, Lynne Jones, Mahon, Primarolo (she was in the Campaign Group at the time), Simpson, Skinner and Audry Wise voted for Beckett.
“I worry that we have an appalling lack of talent on the back benches and that the PLP is quite apolitical at the moment. Full of middle managers.
yes, I think you already voiced this concern in the past when we were talking about future selections and what type of candidates will be picked up.
53. “It’s pretty embarassing really for a party that prides itself on equality of opportunity.”
I’m not sure that I understand that argument, Henry. You don’t need equality of outcome in order to demonstrate that you have equality of opportunity. We can all see, perfectly clearly, that you have equality of opportunity already.
Your next 5 leaders might all be male, they might all be female, they might be some of each. It doesn’t really matter. Whatever the outcome of these contests the equality of opportunity exists for candidates of both sexes.
63. A lot of the Campaign Group backed her because he was ex-Campaign Group. I know you’re a fan of Katy Clark Andrea who is one of the more interesting and credible members of the grouping. Has she declared for leadership and deputy yet?
57. Maybe not. I had the gist emailed. So assumed it was. Not a big one apparently.
51. True so if you’re voting for a no hope Prezza was the next best thing particularly on the left wing of the party.
65. Henry, yes, I like her. I agree she’s one of the best of the group (and the youngest). I don’t think she has declared yet. Do you think she can go for Cruddas?
IIRC last year Max told me that one of the Scottish tabloids had a piece on her and someone in the party wanting her deselected (because if Tony says Christmas is in December, she would disagree). I’m not sure if it was just a “central” hope or if there was something local (the chair of her CLP is a left wing as he’s backing McDonnell, so there should be some left wing support in her CLP)
68. ops, not the CLP chair, but the CLP Secretary
68. Someone always wants to deselect someone. She’s probably got a seat for life there. I have no idea who she’ll support for leader and deputy, though if I had to put money on it I’d say Brown and Cruddas respectively.
re 58. My guess is that we might see something clearer from Miliband when he returns from his French holiday. If he’s decided to rule a challenge out completely then I sense that he would indicate something shortly after his return. If not then the chances of him going for it must increase.
He’s had plenty of opportunities to rule himself out completely and he has not done so. I put his chances of a run at about 40% and would put his chances of winning at 40%.
Re 71. so that’s a 5/1 shot then.
71. I’m surprised you think his chances of winning (if standing) are as high as 40% Mike. What’s your thinking for the different parts of the college?
70. I don’t even know if they’ve started the trigger ballots in Scotland, but I doubt (I suppose they would wait for the end of the Holyrood elections considering the party is busy with the campaign there now).
I wouldn’t be surprised if Wareing will be the only MP managing to lose the trigger ballot in the end.
49 the LD leadership specifically refer people to the manifesto not to Official Party policy. This is why Charlie didn’t have to fight the last election campaigning for abolition of the monarchy. As I said agreeing with everyone at a local level has proved a remarkably good tactic. I wasn’t criticising your party for it, I was expressing surprise that it still worked. I think it’s the faux pious humility that’s simultaneously adopted that swings it for you.
On Thread - Milliband is said to be smart and able, neither quality comes over on TV or in his record at defra BUT assuming all the pundits know of what they speak it is surely obvious that he will allow GB to pick up the poisoned chalice - even with a giant ego, to go from being a cabinet whipper snapper to PM in charge of what would be a deeply divided party is a big ask. If Joe’s Edge comes good I might roll the profit into selling Milliband (if I can work out how to do it).
71. Thanks Mike. I’m glad to see we’re roughly agreed. Also I agree an unequivocal statement from Miliband on his return that he won’t stand would make a hole in my hopes and in my pocket.
Is Manchester-Roma a tennis match? 6-0 game and set
77 - if it is tennis, Roma are a game up in the second set.
76. I think it’s often overlooked these days but younger male politicians are much keener to consider their spouse and children in the career decisions they take. In this case I don’t think it would increase his likelihood of standing but the reverse.
According to SSP manifesto, working in sex industry has a raunchy glamour now (which is not good in SSP eyes) and so they propose to punish people using sexual services (if they’re called Tommy Sheridan, in particular)
The editorial for tomorrow’s (Glasgow) Herald - not that complimentary if you read the last paragraph.
http://www.theherald.co.uk/features/editorial/display.var.1319401.0.0.php
80 - naughty Andrea
It’s one all in the second set now, Andrea. Going with serve.
I’ve just seen this video on Youtube from Armando Ianucci’s Time Trumpet highlighting the startling similarities between Blair and Cameron. It really is funny!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mYkGThMYmbk
Last matched price on GB now out to 1.30. Seems like good value to me.
A humiliating night for Italian football it seems…
Staying on topic for a change. May as well make hay while the sun shines. One major obstacle to Miliband standing is that he ruled himself out much earlier and strongly endorsed Gordon Brown. So it would be tricky for him to renege on that position?
But remember a key part of his reasoning? That it’s either Gordon Brown or a railcrash for Labour! In other words GB would throw such a monstrous sulk if thwarted that it would have seismic consequences for the party.
Since then Brown’s character has come under intense criticism and has been repeatedly questioned as to its appropriateness for the highest office.
The very reason Miliband gave for there not to be a contest is now part of the compelling need for one. Like the Question Time quip, which personally I think was simply that, a quip, these remarks on Brown’s character and popularity are more evidence to oppose him than crown him.
Has Tony Blair given his endorsement to any of the leadership contenders yet?
In my humble opinion that will have a profound effect on the betting market and I agree with Mike that the present price available for David Miliband is good value.
Will Tony Blair endorse “Boy David”? We should know very shortly
86. Jack Straw’s biggest achievement as Brown’s campaign manager has been to get Blairites like Andy Burnham, Liam Byrne and James Purnell to publically back Brown. These are exactly the sort of people that Miliband would be having in his campaign team. David won’t want to find himself away from his political bedfellows and left with the bitter crackpots like Frank Field and Charles Clarke.
Still reckon Straw is worth a few quid himself…
Look are there any “dream ticket” bets out there. I would be willing to bet that Brown and Milliband run as a unifying double act.
90. Nah. You’ve got 3 right-wingers already standing for deputy with financed campaigns up and running. What would be the point?
88. Henry G. Agreed that hasn’t helped Miliband’s cause. But if the climate of political opinion after the May elections is overwhelmingly pessimistic regarding a Brown premiership things could and should change.
91. Who’s the third right winger?
(mind you, I would have troubles to place some of the contenders in the right-left Lab Party axis)
92. Under what circumstances would young and ambitious Ministers who have publically pledged support for Brown change their minds? They’d have to be pretty convinced that he was not going to win and I can’t see that. If Labour collapses in May the blame will be pinned on Blair more than Brown.
I was thinking of Benn junior, but in reality Harman’s on the right of the party too.
85 - I agree - let’s sling these Italian thugs out of European football now…
92. Henry G. Maybe those particular individuals would feel obliged to stay loyal but the remaining Labour MPs who had not signed their names in blood to Brown would need to act in their’s and the party’s best interests.
Didn’t this excat scenario happen to David Davis in the Tory leadership contest?
There is an interesting article on the local elections in Birmingham here:
http://icbirmingham.icnetwork.co.uk/birminghampost/news/tm_headline=tories-scent-victory-%2D-but-will-anything-change%26method=full%26objectid=18884154%26siteid=50002-name_page.html
98. From that article “In Hodge Hill, normally a safe Labour seat”
erm, it was a 4.something majority last year, hardly a safe seat
97. Who knows what will happen. Should be an interesting few weeks. Just as long as we don’t end up with Prime Minister Reid I’ll be quite relaxed.
A view of the election in Central Fife from the Guardian
http://politics.guardian.co.uk/labour/story/0,,2053436,00.html
95. Though I think I agree with Alan Milburn on this one - Harman belongs to the ‘f***ing hopeless’ wing of the party.
http://news.independent.co.uk/people/pandora/article2165433.ece
75. Lib Dems never voted to abolish the monarchy. Debated it yes, but voted down the relevant amendment. They did then go on to defy the leadership by voting in favour of a minimum wage later in the same conference (1994). Crazy idea of course - could never work.
Incidentally, on the subject of wacky Lib Dem policies, I see the government have now introduced a ban on giving goldfish away as prizes to children at funfairs.
102. Henry, you’re too tough with Harriet
101. Marcia, is SNP getting 100%? It almost sounds so
The Times tomorrow suggests Brown will offer Miliband a super-ministry and a key role in his government. Also reiterates my point earlier about the significance of Burnham and Byrne backing Brown.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article1637354.ece
104. Do you think? Not as harsh as a Hilary Benn supporting site (backingbenn.com) is on Peter Hain…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e3sL4V4p6xo
106.
Hain and Harman are the ones getting more “bash”. Maybe it’s the H! 
104 - I would think not - but having been in hospital for a week I have missed a bit of the campaign. Some of the members in Dundee West & East are now working in Central Fife which is not that far away from here.
107. Since I’m in Youtube mode Andrea I thought you’d like this Time Trumpet clip featuring poor Harriet.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_RijHglapOQ
105. Also Newsnight tonight flagging up a debate tomorrow night between Miliband and one of their journalists who has been on a carbon footprint personal journey. This will help improve his profile. On the other hand he undoubtedly enjoys his ministry and could be seduced by the offer of a more powerful ministry. I hope not.
109. Henry LOL
108. Marcia, it looks as Labour will end up with 0 FPTP seats in North East Scotland. The only one happy would probably be the third placed in Labour regional list as he/she would have some hopes to get in at that point
108. Btw, I hope the hospital visit wasn’t for anything too serious
110. I get the sense he’s enjoyed all of his jobs so far. Which is quite rare among ministers. He gets under the skin of a brief pretty quickly and isn’t prone to initiative-itis which helps.
108 Hope you are feeling a whole lot better now, Marcia.
114 thank you - much appreciated. Now off to rest.
115. Good Night Marcia
115.Sorry to hear about your spell in hospital Marcia, hope you are feeling better.
109. Very funny.
Also enjoyed the earlier one where Cameron is portrayed as a mere mimic of Blair. I had the effrontery here once to paraphrase Llyod Bentsen by stating that Cameron was no Tony Blair. “Senator you’re no Jack Kennedy” etc. Well that sent Seant T off on one! Never addressed me before or since.
I’m coming to terms.
58. Stjohn,
I don’t think, having decided to stand, Miliband would be anywhere near as short as 6/4. Somewhere around 3/1 seems far more likely. Of course this makes the implied price for DM to stand at current odds look remarkably skinny.
This is why I think backing Brown / laying Miliband is a very attractive punt, and I continue to accumulate. My reservation price to back DM would be around 15s at present.
It cannot have escaped DM’s notice that the people encouraging him to stand are a rather desperate bunch of people who’ve made irreconcilable enemies of Brown, but who still hanker after Cabinet places. DM has a long and promising career ahead of him - nailing his colours to the mast of disgruntled old Blairites seems far from sensible - not least because his own politics stand squarely to the left of his old boss, and certainly to the left of the likes of Field, Byers and Milburn.
One interesting thing about the Labour leadership is that some of the better candidates are definitely not standing. Hilary Benn oozes leadership potential; Alan Johnson has many of the qualities of a leader, as does Peter Hain; and Jack Straw would make a more convincing PM than John Major.
stjohn Its the punchline at the end that is the killer with Campbell saying of Cameron ” Even when he became PM he was only copying Tony. Tony thought of becoming PM first!”
It conceded the job and highlights the shallowness of the New Labour dream.
119 Arbseeker “It cannot have escaped DM’s notice that the people encouraging him to stand are a rather desperate bunch of people who’ve made irreconcilable enemies of Brown, but who still hanker after Cabinet places”
It sounds reminiscent of when John Redwood stood for the Conservative leadership against Major. I think at the launch he was surrounded by a collection of Tory misfits like Teresa Gorman and Tony Marlow in his boating jacket and hence lost momentum from the start.
As we are in video mode tonight …… Brown being furtive about the sailors’ story story (AWOL with all the rest of the cabinet mind you).
http://www.bbc.co.uk/mediaselector/check/player/nol/newsid_6540000/newsid_6543400?redirect=6543453.stm&news=1&nbwm=1&nbram=1&bbram=1&bbwm=1
101 - a poorly researched article. The journo has described Brown’s Westminster seat as Dunfermline East (which was his pre 2005 seat). It also states the LDs won a by-election in Dunfermline West - but it was actually Dunfermline and West Fife.
Having found these two errors, I have doubts about anything the article says. It was probably made up a a nine-year old in London, who has never heard of Scotland.
That said, the SNP are looking good up in Scotland.
119. Arb Seeker. Thanks for responding to my views. Your assessment is probably more objective than mine. I have to admit that I am very influenced in my judgment of this contest by my instinctive assessments of two human characters.
Firstly, many here recognise the fact that Brown is not going to be an asset for Labour and will not win us a GE. His persona and character are flawed. He lacks charisma and the common touch. This much may be agreed upon.
Secondly, (sotto voce, pace Andrea), I see in Miliband the potential, the observed nascent ability to be an outstanding politician. No-one else in his party excites me politically in the same way in terms of his intelligence, integrity, enthusiasm and ultimately decency. Rather like Tony Blair did in his early days. The charisma has to develop and will never be comparable but it is there. Here I know I am a relatively lone voice.
As far as the odds go, my point is that Miliband will only stand if Brown looks likely to self combust. That part is the longer part of the double. I don’t think Miliband has to do very much to succeed other than contest, if we reach an electoral tipping point after the May elections. If he risks his hand it will be because the circumstances are such that he is likely to win.
Stjohn,
I think that assessment is right - DM will only stand if he assesses himself likely to win. And that is only likely if there is a very serious blow for Brown (would have to be much more than the pensions issue) over the next few weeks.
This is a possible, but far from probable scenario - hence why I’d look for mid-teens on DM and strongly oppose at current prices.
125. … and the Polls! Esmerelda the Polls!
124/125 Arb & StJ - There’s a great deal of consensus here. The different odds we’re all coming up with don’t actually represent very different views. If you take StJ and Mike at one extreme - say about 5/1 - and Arb/HenryG at the other - say 15/1 - you are only talking about fairly modest differences in percentage terms - i.e 16% as against 6%. It’s enough for a healthy argument but not to start a fight!
I’m about a 10/1 man myself, so somewhere in the middle.
It’s been an interesting discussion but I’m off to Uncle now. Nite all.
re 73 and others. Just catching up but my reasoning is that once Blair’s big news comes the media will go crazy demanding a proper contest - particularly if there has not been much improvement in Brown poll ratings in the meantime. Just look at how Labour has caved in on the navy cash for story row to show how sensitive they are.
We are already starting to see it and the growing hostility of the Times to a GB coronation is a good marker.
DM will be pressed constantly and the idea that he would be destroying his career by competing would only add to the growing negatives about Brown.
I remain to be convinced, however, by Miliband’s qualities and my choice would be John Denham - the minister who resigned over the war.
According to Vaughan Roderick (BBC Cymru Political Editor) there is another poll on the way in Wales, showing a very different result than the last one. Presumabaly published on Thursday??
So far there have been three published polls: NOP giving Plaid 20%; Yougov giving Plaid 8% (on Welsh subsample - very dubious); Beaufort giving Wales 30% (Plaid releasing private poll data).
With this amount of variability is there any point in looking at the new data??? Why cant the pollsters get Wales right???
The problem with Welsh polls is that most of the voters are not that interested in the assembly election. All the manifestoes have now been launched and have hardly caused a ripple. On BBC Wales last night two of the BBC 60 gave a distinctly lukewarm reaction to the Labour launch. Most Welsh voters do not even know the name of the party leaders including the First Minister. In these circumstances what would your reaction be if NOP phoned up and interrupted your favourite TV programme. You’d probably tell them anything to get them off the phone.What probably sums up Welsh politics is the list of pledges one of Labour’s so called stars Carwyn Jones has placed on his first leaflet. Turn to Arsembly which has a link to it. Read it and weep for the Welsh voter.
Carwyn is my local AM, and I have a lot of respect for him - or rather I did until I read this nonsense.
BTW Manifestos dont make any difference with the general public - they are only read by anoraks, journalists and opponents…..
I’m not worried who will beat Brown, I have always been convinced someone will emerge purely because Brown is self-evidently such a poor candidate. My position has been consisently to lay Gordon Brown on the betting exchanges and I will continue to do so.
22 - Brown turned down Naomi Campbell? Is that how he lost an eye? LOL
Is Iraq likely to be much of a factor?