Are we heading for another Betfair mess-up?
April 11th, 2007
How will the betting exchange settle the departure date market?
Anybody who had money on last November’s US MidTerms Senate market with Betfair will know what happens when the rules are not tied down tight enough.
Then Betfair settled the election on the basis of a tie even though the actual outcome was that the Democrats took control of the Senate. Then the problem was the position of two senators who had not gone into the election as Democratic candidates but had said they would caucus with the party.
An added complication for Betfair was that the Labour MP, Nick Palmer, had written to Betfair ahead of the election asking for clarification about Lieberman’s position and had received a written reply confirming that if he won he would be regarded as a Democrat. Palmer had posted this information of this site influencing, no doubt, a number of other punters in the process.
So how are they going to interpret the rules (reproduced above) of the Blair exit market? If, as many suggest, Blair has to resign as leader in order to trigger a contest then that looks like a 2007 Q2 winning option. But if it is on the basis of when he steps down then, assuming that everything goes according to current reports, the winner should be Q3.
The current betting on the two outcomes is evens on Q2 and 0.99/1 on Q3 - so punters are totally split. For what they are probably gambling on is not the date but how Betfair will interpret their rules.
You might think that writing to them might be the best way forward but having seen what happened to Nick Palmer’s correspondence how do we know they will stand by anything they say?
Because of the uncertainty I am no longer involved with this market and have closed down my positions.
As an object lesson in how to tie something like this up properly Betfair ought to look to the Cantor Spreadfair betting exchange. Their market rules state explicitly “If Tony Blair announces his resignation for a date in the future, but carries on as Prime Minister in the interim, then the market will be settled on his actual final day as Prime Minister, not the time of the announcement.”
Mike Smithson
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What precisely does the Labour Party constitution say about this? Is that, also, open to interprtetation about what constitutes the “leader” of the Labour party? Does it make any allowances or distinction for an “acting” leader, or an “interim” leader, or any other form of words?
My guess is that Betfair will, when Blair does announce his resignation, phone the Labour Party and ask the duty press officer whether Blair is still leader. That is how they decided the Alastair Campbell market (another one they got wrong imo).
The trouble is that because Betfair is the winner whichever way the market is settled, there is no immediate financial penalty for them in getting it wrong; no incentive to make the market rules unambiguous and correct.
Indie says Brown fears Scottish results
http://news.independent.co.uk/uk/politics/article2439540.ece
“Mr Brown and other Scottish members of the Cabinet were absent yesterday when Jack McConnell, the Labour First Minister, launched a manifesto” Macavity
Blair refuses to say if he authorised payments
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml;jsessionid=IOXADYHGLQTTHQFIQMFCFF4AVCBQYIV0?xml=/news/2007/04/11/niran11.xml
The Betfair market is I believe relatively simple. Blair will announce his rsignation of the Leader of the Labour Party either with immediate effect (e.g. 8th May 2007) or for a date in the future (e.g. 1st July 2007). In the former case Betfair should settle on Q2, on the latter Q3.
I personally think he will announce his resignation as Leader of the Labour party with immediate effect (triggering the contest for Labour Party Leader), but remain as Prime Minister. This will allow him to reamin in control of the country whilst the Labour Party Leadership campain takes place.
He will thus leave the Labour Party Leadership in Q2 and Prime Ministerhsip in Q3 (1st July 2007… hopefully not 30th June!). This is important for me as I have backed with William Hill (at 25/1) 6 months ago for Blair to stop being Prime Minister in July 2007, now an 8/11 chance.
My thoughts on this haven’t changed since I posted this on my blog six months ago…. http://kickingbets.blogspot.com
This was the reason I moved out of this market. I love Betfair but every now and then they infuriate and they can be quite unresponsive to their customers.
On a related topic, the fact that there seems little prospect of a deputy labour leader market leaves us fighting over small percentage changes to Brown’s price for leader - not anyone’s idea of fun. As well as a market for the winner of the DL contest, they could allow a market for which candidates will get onto the ballot paper and a tricast for the order in which candidates will finish in the poll. Come on Betfair grant us our wishes!
O/T - French election.
The new Ipsos/Dell tracker for SFR/Le Point shows no real change despite the whole Sarkozy/eugenics fake row began. He takes the first round 30% (-0.5), with Royal at 23.5% (+0.5), Bayrou 19% (-0.5) and Le Pen at 13.5% (+0.5). All the far-left candidates are getting their votes squeezed by Royal, Bayrou and Besancenot, who is bagging over 4% of the vote.
6- Royal said this morning that her victory was “not impossible”, and François Hollande played again the “useful vote” card, saying that “the left’s participation to the second round is not guaranteed”.
The Le Pen/Sarkozy row continues by proxy : Marine Le Pen (daughter and advisor of Jean-Marie) said on TV she was “shocked” by a 2004 interview of Cecilia Sarkozy (wife of Nicolas) in which she stated her “pride” for having “not a drop of French blood in her”. I think this stunt is even less useful for the le pen camp that the first “sarkozy is an immigrant’s son” attack.
O/T http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/education/article1637534.ece
“Alan Johnson, the Education Secretary, is being sued by Britain’s largest teaching union for refusing to talk to them about teachers’ pay, working conditions and key school policies.”
Well that is one group of Labour voters that will not want him as its Deputy.
Speaking to GMTV, the Environment Secretary did not deny he had been approached by party colleagues who suggested he stand.
“It’s very flattering, but it’s important that you don’t let flattery go to your head,” he said. “I’m not going to be seduced.”
http://www.blackpooltoday.co.uk/viewarticle.aspx?articleid=2693345§ionid=4068
An important link from Andrea. Mike S take note. That’s the end of that!
7 - the PS campaign is all over the place. The point of the eugenics row seems to be to try and label Sarkozy as, as Royal’s shadow PM Jean-Marc Ayrault put it yesterday, inspired by the “conservative American right”. The neocons are a dog whistle to the French. Maybe this will stick but I doubt it. Much better to scare people about his “Americanism” on economic and foreign policy.
11- Meanwhile Royal is still convinced of her victory according to the “Canard enchaîné” this morning…
The same paper (more or less equivalent of Private Eye) continues its anti-sarkozy campaign by pretending that Sarkozy have promised to Chirac an amnesty of all its judiciary problems through legal reform. Of course they deny it. Knowing the sheer hatred between them,I’m inclined to think that this is a hoax, or that Chirac is very naive to believe this kind of promises…
10. “I have no plans to stand” is not a denial.
What is interesting about Milliband is that he just can’t bring himself to say:
“I would not stand against Gordon Brown for leader”
or
“There are no circumstances in whcih I will stand fro the leadeship”
and until he does the speculation will continue.
13 Agreed Marcus, and it’s perfectly reasonable of him to leave open the possibility, however slight.
Milliband used the Gordon Brown line on GMTV ‘Don’t covet other people’s jobs’, ‘getting on with being Environment Secretary’. He looked like he was enjoying it though. I don’t think there’s any chance of him standing but he is certainly going to expect a big job in Broon’s cabinet.
He still can’t shave properly and his ears are a cartoonist’s dream.
In order to trigger a leadership election Bliar would have to resign as leader. He couldn’t say “I’m going to resign in the future and I want you to elect a successor before I do”. Once he’s resigned there’s no constitutional problem with him remaining as Prime Minister. It’s up to the Labour party to decide whether it needs an acting leader in the interim - after all just what exactly does the Labour party leader do distinctly from the Prime Minister. That suggests a Q2 settlement to me.
With Q2 and Q3 showing a healthy profit at the moment I’m still torn (given the nature of the beast) to shore up the position with the tempting 39/1 on a Q4 departure.
16 Chris A
Check out WillHills. LAst time I looked, they had 40/1 for October 07 and later - a hedger’s dream.
Ladbrokes say Scottish elections too close to call :
http://www.theherald.co.uk/politics/news/display.var.1319545.0.0.php
Peter - it must be very hard, the opportunity to go from nought to Prime Minister in four weeks must be deeply tempting for any politician.
Just the speculation - the remote possibility that he might be PM soon - will have elevated his status massively.
No wonder he is not in any hurry to shut down that avenue 100%
What is a voter to do? You don’t want to let Blair go without a good kicking but at the same time the alternatives to Labour are unpalatable. This is surely the last chance we as electors have to give him the send off his recent foreign policy deserves and it shouldn’t be wasted. The only solution is the minor parties. Look out for the Libs the SNP the Greens Respect etc. They’ll never have a better chance.
Incidentally does anyone know if Yates is still poring through his emails? He must be one hell of a slow reader!
Dirty tricks against a dirty dog … woof woof !
http://www.thisisnorthscotland.co.uk/displayNode.jsp?nodeId=149664&command=displayContent&sourceNode=149490&contentPK=17080176&folderPk=85696&pNodeId=149221
21. And 2 of them seems not to have found anything
21. That’s very funny. I can just imagine someone breaking into Angus Mcneils office in Westminster
22 - I was just about to say that Andrea. Looks like paranoia to me and an attempt to draw attention away from Angus McNeill.
20. Roger, I’m sure a man of the world like yourself will appreciate most voters do not share your unfortunate dilemma.
Loved watching the local news yesterday (Wales Today). Showed Ieuan Wynn Jones on a ‘walkabout’ in Llanelli town centre - no one knew who he was! Poor thing - he’s not a patch on Dafydd Wigley.
21 cont.. No wonder nothing was stolen. Can he write?
23 - Perhaps some women just can’t help themselves Roger?!
24. Max, I think being a bit of a Drama Queen is a SNP tactic until they find something that can stick. For ex in Moray byelection they spend quite a lot of time being outraged by one thing or another until they found something that was reasonably “outraged” (the Con letters and LD leaflets quote)
20 Ever thought of voting Conservative, Roger? I mean, I know it’s not something one does lightly but it would not exactly bring the end of civilisation as we know it.
30. Oh. My. God. Wash your mouth out with soapy water! Voting Tory is akin to murdering little babies - everyone knows that!
29 Andrea. There’s only room for one drama queen in British politics :
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/arts/graphics/slideshows/lizzie/liz003.jpg
Brighton Labour selections.
28 people applied for Brighton Kemptown (council leader Simon Burgess is the frontrunner)
Brighton Pavillon (an AWS) saw “just over a dozen candidates” applying
[30] Don’t wind him up, Peter. He’s still convalescent
29 - I agree Andrea. I suspect this story is bollocks. But on the wilder fringes of Scottish Nationalism I’m sure some of them would believe entirely that there are evil forces at work against McNeill.
If the Nats do lose the election I can’t wait to hear some of the conspiracy theories that will abound.
Andrea in general how many applicants are Labour seats getting?
25. I think a lot do. Labour have improved most peoples lives greatly-in spite of Blair- and memories of the Tories will take a lot longer than 10 years to fade! Nonetheless Iraq and Lebanon were a sufficient blot that many voters will be prepared to cut off their noses to spite their face. And apart from Scotland it is without significant cost.
PtP. “20 Ever thought of voting Conservative, Roger?”
I thought Jack was the comedian!!
William Hill have some interesting Scottish election bets. With the polls showing the Tories and Lib Dems close, then the most seats price on the Tories of 3.25 is tempting :
http://www.willhill.com/iibs/EN/buildcoupon.asp?couponchoice=PO1632052
38
I’m not sure if it says No 10’s press office is finally opening up, but after being refused a petition on the same issue three times someone else has finally got one up:
http://petitions.pm.gov.uk/saudiarmsdeal/
Liverpool Lib Dems come over all Walsall …. or is that Warwsaw :
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/news/news.html?in_article_id=447759&in_page_id=17
28. Max. Or one of his floosies going back for her underwear?
35 - Max, do you know if counting machines (as opposed to people) are being used down your way for the count on election night or is it just the Highlands that is being at the thrusting forefront of technology (see here for the local story of iffy counting machines - personally I suspect the recent ‘Microsoft Lib Dem Dodgy Charting’ upgrade is to blame)?
I fear the new system will seriously muck up my spreadsheets with the ability to detect in which areas we’re most hated as we probably won’t be able to correlate votes to areas this new way. On the plus side, we might all get home early.
39. Thanks for that Jack W, looks like a misprice indeed. All we need now are some individual constituency markets and we can have some real fun.
44 - Stephen I think it’s nationwide. I have no doubt that should the SNP lose it will be because of ‘Unionist’ counting machines.
Out of interest are we putting up council candidates in the Highland and do you think any will get in?
26. Luckliy for Plaid, most voters in Llanelli know who their local candidate Helen Mary Jones is, and even have a nickname for her (Hairy Melons !!).
But IWJ is useless. Even with him PC should win 14-16 seats, but if DW was leading it would be 20+.
Trainspotterish point - it’s the Liberals in Liverpool, not the Lib Dems.
42 - interesting story. I note Philip Davies, Tory MP for Shipley, vehemently opposed this. Does he think you should not be able to have a say on local affairs (for example provision of English Language classes) unless you already speak English? Should local politicians only be able to communicate with the local non-English speaking Poles in the Polish Press (ie. Kronika Reading where I live).
It is interesting that it is the Liberal party (not the LDs) doing its leaflets in Polish. The Liberals are one of the most anti EU parties in the UK.
The article also mentions bemused locals in places where road signs have been put up in other languages. I come from Kent, and there are quite a lot of road signs in French, German, Dutch, Spanish, Polish and Czech reminding people to drive on the left. I think they serve a purpose.
I want a petition urging the government to open discussions with the US at federal state & city level to create a system whereby this country would get royalties for all the town, city & county names that are directly taken from UK places.
The state of Virginia is first, we’ll bankrupt it it.
On this Betfair issue, I’ve posted it before and I’ll post it again, Betfair don’t actually know because the labour Party didnt actually know and may still not know what the process will be. The logical route is that Tony hands in his notice and stays on until the successor is chosen. If nothing else, it will make for a smooth looking handover, Labour don’t want it looking messy.
Cantor have accounted for this, Betfair havent yet.
What annoys me more is that I am much more heavily in profit on Q2 than Q3. This was based on an estimation of Tony handing in his notice very soon after the May elections (now probably certain with the devolution business in NI conveniently timed by the DUP, unless something dramatic happens) and a six weeks period to select and appoint a new leader, taking us just to the end of June. Plenty of time, thinks I.
What do Labour decide on? 7 weeks. 7 weeks for the Leader & Deputy Leader. They are obviously run by people who spent their time in the public sector….
Mike, I suppose this is the problem with getting the office junior to set the markets!
They do need to learn from past mistakes, and it appears that they have not.
Re Deputy race - heard a rumour that Peter Hain has not agreed to do hustings with the other candidates - true or baloney ?
48 Augustus. Thank you Fat Controller !
46 - Max, yes we have a full slate of councillors (at least in the area that the local association is responsible for - Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey and I’m assuming that other associations have done the same for the rest of the Highlands). I think we stand a better chance in some wards than others and serious effort is being directed accordingly were the ground looks more favourable to us.
I’ll stick my neck out and speculate that the Comhairle nan Eilean Siar won’t have a Tory majority though.
54 Stephen B. Tough prediction there !
Morning all :). Re: 48 and others - I think that last year in Newham, there were leaflets produced in other languages but I suppose in wards with ethnic minority levels of 40% or more that’s not surprising.
I do find it strange that we seem to insist that people coming to and working in this country should be able to speak English yet when British people emigrate to Spain and set up businesses, many of them do so without even a rudimentary grasp of the language.
Yet I don’t sense the French or Spanish getting anywhere near as worked up about it as we do.
If you want to hear a respectable gamut of languages, try walking along East Ham High Street - you might even hear English if you’re lucky !!
12 - Chris (from Paris)
What do you think of Gilles de Robien’s comment this morning that he is leaving the UDF together with André Santini and Christian Blanc to form a new centre party? Will this dent Bayrou?
56 Stodge. You think the English speak English …..
http://images.easyart.com/myspace/lg/7/2/72240.jpg
56 - agreed.
Having lived in two other European countries - both with bloody inaccessible languages, if I had had the right to vote in local elections, I would have liked to have had access to election materials in English. What’s wrong with allowing immigrants election material in their own language? Of course we want them to learn English, but we shouldn’t exclude them before they have learnt it. I look forward to the Polish versions of Focus / In Touch / Labour News.
59. If the parties had any sense they would issue foriegn language version - we dont need a law for this tho.
[56] Hey, Stodge, anything East Ham High Street can do Queensway can do better
55 - Jack, I must admit I thought long and hard about this one…but I think the way the Tories regularly lose their deposit there that swayed me in favour of this prediction.
O/T are there any Fulham fans on this forum?
63 They run with The Creatures, Yokel. Not out before nightfall.
52. I think Hain said he, Benn and Johnson wouldn’t do hustings until after the election contest formally began. If he’s avoiding them after then he’s nuts.
63. I am not a happy bunny with Fulham FC this morning let me tell you.
63 Yokel. Not buying your morning pinta with the Egyptian grocer then ??
62 Stephen B.
Are you still attending the Perth Racing Festival ?
57- Mister Chip
It might hurt Bayrou in this way: he needs to keep aboard his traditional christian-democrats electors while trying to seduce as many socialists as posisble.
This will get more and more difficult if senior members of the party leave the UDF.
It is also very important for the survival of an UDF group in the natinal assembly. you need to get 20 MPs to set up a group and the UDF has currently 29 only.
Except in case of of a Bayrou victory, UDF will struggle to keep them :
- minus Robien+Santini+Blanc, UDF is down to 26
- 5 UDF MPs have majorities under 800 - the group would then be reduced to 21 if the left gets a bit higher vote than in 2002 (most creduible scenario)
Thus Bayrou should be under huge pressure from his MPs not to break away too much from the traditional alliance with the UMP. for the moment, the UMP has not named candidates in UDF-held constituencies. If it does, the group will be wiped out (the seats most probaly going to the socialists, so it’s a tricky call for the UMP).
67. I’ll stick my boot up his conspiracy obsessed rear if I ever see him…but I won’t, so its a safe threat to make…
Ah well, if we lose our manager long term I’d bring Coleman in as a replacement. That guy is useful, has kept a perennial relegation fight side up and I think would have done so again.
67. You might get to share Sanchez until the end of Euro 08 qualifying.
Best result could be Fulham lose next 5 and you get him back..
42 Jack, there’s also SNP material in Polish. In Polish SNP becomes Szkocka Partia Narodowa
O/T Ian Dale is reporting the Lib Dems have delayed their London Mayoral selection.
Will Ken be unopposed?
70. I ‘m not sure he’ll keep them up. If they stay up its because of the points in the bag under Coleman’s reign, I’m not sure Sanchez will make the difference to be honest. I reckon Coleman would have kept them up.
Anyway, a Coleman (just in case) for Northern Ireland campaign starts today….as does my royalties for USA/UK place names campaign..
69 Yokel. Didn’t Fulham supporters realize that Coleman was in the pay of Prince Philip ?
71 Andrea. In Jacobite the SNP translates as the Scottish Numpty Party !
71. legend had it that SNP used to stand for ‘Soon No Pope’ in days of yore….
68 - Thanks Chris(from Paris), that’s very useful. What you have said means that if Bayrou is eliminated in the first round, Sarkozy will have more leverage with him to obtain UDF support for May 6 than I had assumed. Robien’s comments about Sarkozy’s assurances on centrist ministers means I’ll have to tweak my cabinet line-up. I go for Blanc as minister for economic strategy. I’ve always thought Sarkozy would like Kouchner as foreign minister too but the problem is how does he keep everyone happy with a cabinet of only 15 and 7 of those women?
9. Andrea. On last night’s thread I expressed the hope that Miliband would not be seduced by the offer of a super ministry.
Today he is quoted as saying “I am not going to be seduced”.
I think it is fairly clear he is following the discussions on PBC very closely and is speaking to us in coded messages.
74. At his current rate of going, he might well just claim that….
65. Henry, the Tony and Steph Booth supporting Hazel in her endorsements page are Cherie’s dad and her step-mother?
77. Stjohn
72 - this is interesting. I really don’t have a clue who may stand for the LDs. Susan Kramer was an unknown and a good candidate - she did creditably even though quite a lot of LDs voted for Ken. Simon Hughes was more of a name, but was a weaker candidate. Relatively speaking his result was poorer given that there was not independent standing. Where do you go from here? Lynne Featherstone would be excellent, but I think she’d rather stay an MP.
I guess the Tories want a name, but are desperately trying to avoid Mike Read.
who are the 4 LD applying for the Mayoral selection?
72/81 LW/SBS. The problem for the Tories and the Lib Dems is that their “names” are well aware that Our Red Ken will beat them hollow and that just leaves second division candidates !
Ideally, mayoral candidates should emerge from members of the London Assembly. But who, but the most diehard London party members, has a clue who these members are?
76- Beware with any prediction concerning Christian Blanc. He is a complete megalomaniac and has a reputation for being totally uncontrollable. Besides, he was elected in a bitter by-election against the UMP and his campaign has left him with few friends in the powerful UMP clique from the western-suburbs of Paris (of which Sarkozy is of course the undisputed leader)
Therefore, I seriously doubt Sarkozy would name him to such a high-profile ministry (he may promise him now to do so, but that’s another thing…). Robien and Santini would be safer bets for (junior) ministries.
83 - exactly!
67 - Jack, funny you should mention Perth Races as I was thinking about it yesterday as a suitable venue to waste my massive (ahem) probable winnings from the French Presidential elections! Not sure which day though.
Does your impending presence mean that your tenants should start cowering and quaking?
72 / 81 - They are delaying selection in an attempt to convince Lembit to put himself forward?
88. Maybe the Oatens can run as dual candidate
88 - you’re too cheeky!
89 - fantastic! And the Hamiltons could run for the Tories!
71 - Leaflets in Polish are also being distributed for the Welsh Assembly elections by the “Partii Walii”.
Just out of interest do we know when any decent polls are due?
87 Stephen B. How dare you Sir !!
The acclaimation as I returned home last time was perhaps low key … but heartfelt !
http://www.first-to-fly.com/History%20Images/1906-1909/1909%20Bleriot%20salutes%20crowd%20Dover%20station.jpg
Put your money on Fulham going down. Coleman was all that saved a cash strapped (I mean starved) side from the drop. Mind you losing £40 million couldn’t happen to a nicer grocer!
Many thanks again to Chris from Paris for your regular updates. I’ve got one of my biggest bets ever on it (Sarkozi and Bayrou) and the fact that few comment on it doesn’t mean we aren’t interested. I for one am really interested!!
79. Yup.
94 - I’m sure they will still be smiling after you have moved them to a new home…
And speaking of the Grocer, will the SNP grant him citizenship in the event that Scotland becomes independent?
96. Great. The first lady’s dad is important. Who will be next to declare? Sarah Brown? Reinaldo? Shawn Woodward’s butler? Blunkett’s dog Sadie? Ken Follett?
71, 92. It doesn’t matter whether election leaflets are in English or Polish. Spin is still spin, regardless of the language.
In London, you get leaflets in all sorts of languages - often custom delivered. My in-laws are Greek, but since they have lived here for 50 years feel somewhat patronised by getting stuff in Greek all the time.
It’s the Lib Dems mostly. I’m sure that their heart is in the right place, but it’s almost as if they are saying “You are still an outsider”. This seems more racist to me than just treating everyone the same.
The Labour leaflets are better. In English, with a sentence in multiple languages at the back offering a translated version, but only if you want one.
O/T France
no poll this time but the French answer to Iowa electronic markets : newsfutures.com is a website (entirely in French, sorry) that is based on the online trading of vouchers representing the outcome of news events (politics, sports, weather, stock exchange…).
It respects the French law against betting and gambling : people are allowed same allocations of a virtual money at the beginning (and gain a fixed amount every day under a threshold) and can only use it to buy gifts from sponsors.
It has a lot of markets concerning the presidential election.
The main ones are the candidates’ scores : the last prices are sarkozy 29, royal 24, le pen 19, bayrou 16.
Thus the traders on newsfutures agree broadly with pollsters regarding sarkozy and royal but think that le pen and bayrou are respectively under- and overstated.
The price of a royal/sarkozy matchup in the second round is however only 77%, proving that the markets are not always rational…
95 Couldn’t agree more, Roger. I may not reply often but I never fail to read any of Chris’s letters from Paris. Naturally I am in the same happy position as you as regards my bets.
97. Tony Booth spent most of his career as a soft porn actor. If Hazel could get the DVD’s on giant screens she might start to attract some interest.
Hello from Halmstad (Sweden) - just checking in. To reply to the query from Anatole yesterday - I’m not sure if there will be a contest, but I am sure that GB will win either way. The figures for Labour supporters in recent polls on the subject (such as that odd Observer ICM one which was actually 3 weeks old) are pretty overwhelming, and the dominant view of Labour supporters who I talk to is that they aren’t going to be talked out of it by what they see as an unfair media assault.
HenryG: yes, I agree, I understand the “no hustings” agreement between several deputy candidates only to apply until the contest is called. Afterwards of course there will be hustings and I’m sure al lthe candidates on the ballot will take part.
Local news here judging from a few papers seems to be that the Swedish centre-right government is seen as drifting and falling behind the opposition in the polls - but early days still.
We’ve been relaxing for a few days in a forest cabin - lots of cranes, deer, elk, geese, etc. - very nice! Back Saturday.
101- Nice to hear that. I will use it as a proof for my wife that my pb.com “hobby” is not useless after all!
104 Shame you can’t make it over for the PB Book Launch/Party, Chris. Only one ticket left. Sure you don’t want to bag it?
103. Sounds like a good holiday Nick. There’s no chance Mrs G would allow me to visit PB.com if I were on holiday overseas!
What has heppened to Nick Ferrarri for the London Mayorals? He sounded firm to stand a couple of weeks ago. If so is he Tory or independent.
If he then won on a platform of “No congestion charge” it will be curious to see what happens next
He is an objectional t****r.
103. Nick P. Hope you didn’t object to me acting as your UK representative during your exile, in answering Anatole’s questions. I think I read your views correctly.
I will now step down from my role as we can hear directly from The King over the Water.
107 John W - I don’t think the Congestion Charge is particularly unpopular in London, despite the Evening Standard’s relentless campaign against it (and Ken L.)
109 - surely a lot of people in London live so far from it that it does not impact on them at all one way or the other. Why would it affect a teacher in Uxbridge, a shop assistant in Dagenham or a cleaner in Enfield?
110. It doesn’t affect diplomatic staff either.
109,110 - And even for a fair proportion of those of us who do live close enough (I’m a couple of streets outside the zone) it doesn’t really affect us - I don’t own a car and catch the bus into the city for work. If anything the bus journeys are fractionally quicker than previously.
OT. Tom Daschle lends his support and 85,000 donor base to Obama :
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/18041590/site/newsweek/
113. Now that is very significant news and will be noted internationally.
95,Probably one more win would almost secure Fulham in the top flight,although they are being sucked towards danger-as it looks Sheff Utd are nose-diving to destruction,and Wigan’s Premiership status looks perilous.
Charlton are now tipped to finish 4th bottom ie survive-if my West Ham pulled it off,I would party big-time:wink:
Back on topic - ish… this Betfair mess-up may reoccur if they give a market on the next Russian President.
I continue to tip strongly that the constitution will be changed and Putin will be allowed to run again, will be persuaded to run again and will win easily.
This means that any bets on the “next” Russian leader - and bet365 are offering odds - may be very long term investments. Putin is youngish, very popular, and can easily manage another one possibly two terms.
On a personal note, despite many misgivings about Putin, I think it is in everybody’s interests if Putin stays. The last thing we want is weakness in Russia - as that could spell disaster. We don’t want another Yeltsin.
116. I see Ivanov is down to 5/2 with bet365 and 3s with unibet.com. Got a nice bit of 12/1 in my back pocket thanks to Blue Moon and Jan (from Norway).
117 - 12/1 was great for Ivanov, but you may have to wait ten years to see your money. And by then Ivanov may be yesterday’s man.
116. SBS - what was disastrous about Yeltsin, from the British point of view?
I see Des Browne has now accepted responsibility for selling the stories. More on my blog, of course!
http://aconservatives.blogspot.com/
I note that England are the same odds to beat Bangladesh today as Gordon Brown is to be next leader of the Labour party !
Back to the main thread, I understand there may be one or two representatives of Betfair at the Book Launch Party. Whilst I am sure nobody would be rude, I do hope PBers will take the opportunity to voice some constructive criticism.
118. Probably not since the Unibet market is labelled ‘2008 election: to succeed Putin’. I’d ask for a void bet if Putin changed the constitution to stand again.
122. So does that mean I’m going to resist the tempation to lock them in a cupboard until they agree to have a deputy leader market?!
124 We are at the National Liberal Club, Henry. One does not do that sort of thing there.
119 - Yeltsin was weak. Russia was unstable. Yeltsin could have been toppled in a coup, and a military dictatorship could have emerged in Russia. This may have been led by Cold War loons or their protegees, and could have been very dangerous for the West. Putin may have played a bit of market economics to influence things in Ukraine to his advantage (just as he will surely hang out Lukashenko to dry in Belarus sooner or later), but he has not invaded.
The Russian economy is booming, because Putin is not so prone to cronyism as Yeltsin was. Unsurprisingly, many of Yeltsin’s cronies have left Russia.
Chechnya, however, remains a very black mark. Like a mini-Iraq really.
Putin may be a nasty piece of work, but we can do business with him. I also believe that a strong Russia can help us as we seek solutions in places like Iran and North Korea.
116 yes we do want another Yeltsin, or at least a sober version. Putin is an updated Tsarist. There will be no democracy and he will use energy as a weapon for Russian agrandisement and power. This will keep Russians in the dark ages.
The biggest threat to our democracies is the acceptance by the West of totalitarianism in China Russia and the Middle east
126. Business? You tell that to Shell or BP!
126 - Yeltsin’s endless sacking of PMs was also ridiculous. In 1998-9 the role call was Chernomyrdin, then Kirienko, then Chernomyrdin (acting), then Primakov, then Stepashin, then Putin.
It’s a bit like Home Secretaries over here.
127 - so we should have for a Russia plagued by weak leadership, cronyism, infighting, jostling for succession…
In short they should adopt the British model!
Who says its booming? It always takes 10 years for major macro economic changes to work through. It would have been chaos in the 90’s no matter who was in charge. You have to remember that Chinese capitalism is largly confined to the south eastern quarter and is highly state run, so don’t look there for a better way. Its still the same old story in north west China.
Putin and his successors is not to be underestimated as a potential threat to UK economic stability in 15 - 20 years time. The more it is integrated into the EU the better, and Putin’s policies make that impossible
#39 Jack W.
Nice to be able to agree with you for a change-which is probably why we are both wrong
I think you are on to something in suggesting the Tories will get more seats that the Lib Dems. The Tories are being largely ignored in this election, which means no-one is bothering to atack them, and they can simply focus on getting their core vote out. Their only vulnerability on the the constituency level is probably Galloway-but a loss here would be compensated on the List. Gains at Dumfries, Eastwood etc are possible. Lib Dems are clearly vulnerable in Tweedale, Gordon, Argyll etc etc. The assumption that the Lib Dems will beat the Tories seems to require a setback on scale for the Greens which is by no means certain
131 - “Putin and his successors is not to be underestimated as a potential threat to UK economic stability” - any country with oil is such a threat, as that has been clear since the 1970s. But given a choice between Ahmadinejad (strong and very bad), Putin (strong and a bit naughty) or the House of Saud (weak and waning), I would say Putin is the reliable one. If we in the UK had huge amounts of oil, I am sure we’d be less internationalist too.
Change topic - BBC reports “Police in Bangladesh have filed murder charges against former Prime Minister, Sheikh Hasina.”
126. SBS - what a disturbing reply. You appear to have fallen hook line and sinker for the ‘Russia needs a strong man’ nonsense that successive authoritarian regimes have used to justify their excesses there over the last few centuries.
For someone who calls themselves a ‘liberal’ to be supporting a man who has systematically muzzled the press, rigged elections and organised ‘accidents’ for his domestic political opponents is extraordinary. Enough to have ColinW choking on his spliff/muesli/sandals methinks…and rightly so on this occasion.
Hey! my blog has just had its 24,000ths visitor! To think it was below 10,000 visitors at the begging of February!
Re 135, Sugar, I should have written:
Hey! my blog has just had its 24,000ths visitor! To think it was below 10,000 visitors at the beginning of February!
136 - All the more impressive given the impressive way you refuse to induge in self promotion of your site Benedict.
I hadn’t heard of your blog before but am looking forward to being the 24,001st visitor.
132 - whether the Lib Dems beat the Tories has nothing to do with the Green performance.
There’s one seat separating them at the moment - and the Lib Dems have at least 6 extra fptp constituencies in their sights. These are not really reliant on the absolute vote level, so unless the Tories are going to poll significantly more this time round they are unlikely to make the gains needed on the list.
Re 137,Max, no you would never indulge in self promotion like this:
Hey,have a look at this blog!
http://aconservatives.blogspot.com/
That would after all just lower the tone
137 Yes, just imagine what the number would be if he were less furtive about it.
135 - Begging - a bit of a Freudian slip there Benedict
125. The sort of place with thick oak cupboards where no-one can hear you scream.
135. The begging of April seems to be going well too, Benedict!
re 132/8. As I’ve metnioned before basically the units in Scotland are large enough to achieve proportionality and so the only think that matters is the list vote %ages. If the Toreis score higher than this in than the LDs they’ll get more seats.
Re 140, PtP, 141, Ted, and 143, Matt J,
Completely O/T, I wonder if the fuss over Gordon Brown’s Scottishness is a bit overdone. Nobody today seems to be complaining about Alex Ferguson’s Scottishness.
146. Good point. It’s not like the Scots were behind 7/7.
O/T France
This afternoon “Le Monde” published an interesting paper with interviews of major pollsters.
Except explaining the difficulty of polls, they seem to try to cover themselves in case of a new shock. in particular they all consider “possible” an elimination of royal through a surge of votes for far-left candidates and/or le pen.
They continue to announce a royal/sarkozy 2nd round but…they “hedge” this prediction with a “plan B” : a Le pen/Sarkozy 2nd round
The same people who complain about Gordon’s Scottishness seem to be the same people who push John Reid for leader. God forbid!
149. Reid has a hand-grenade for a heart.
146 - I don’t think the two positions are directly comparable.
I also think it’s a bit disingenous to portray the attacks on GB as being anti-Scottish. It’s not the fact that he’s a Scot it’s that he represents a Scottish constituency.
148- to be perfectly honest,and to comfort Nick P, Mike and other Royal supporters, they also consider that, if she can access the second round, she could still win against sarkozy if she plays well her less divisive profile.
138. Dan “There’s one seat separating them at the moment - and the Lib Dems have at least 6 extra fptp constituencies in their sights. ”
What are those 6 seats in your opinion?
I can think of 3, maybe a 4th FPTP seats in their sight, but what are the other 2 seats you have in mind?
153 - I’ll hazard a guess Andrea.
Aberdeen Central
Edinburgh Central
Edinburgh North
Inverness etc
Strathkelvin & Bearsden
Glasgow Kelvin?
154 - Sorry I’ll swap that Glasgow Kelvin for a Greenock & Inverclyde!
154 - I’d also add Dunfermline West and Coatbridge.
Although my information may be duff about one of these…
154. Max, I would give them more chances in Dunfermline West. The Westminster byelection gain should boost their chances, enought to make them the main challenger there.
I agree about Edinburgh Central.
I suppose he can include Greenock & Inverclyde (even if they didn’t do well in 2005 GE there).
As for Edinburgh North, Kelvin and Abderdeen Central, SNP is ahead of them. If SNP is 10%+ up compared to 2003, I find it difficult to see them passed. Naturally someone can argue that SNP vote can be significantly up in some areas and less in others, but the increase seems quite big and so where the hell is all this increase if it’s not in Edinburgh, Abderdeen and Glasgow? (a 50% increase in Moray to compensate?!)
As for Strathkelvin & Bearsden. Yes, it includes part of Jo Swinson’s seat, but I suppose Jean Turner can take away people who could have voted Libdems. IIRC she waited until early 2007 to confirm she would stand again, I suppose she tested the “ground” before deciding.
156. In Coatbridge & Chryston there’s the “save the hospital” candidate who can do well. She’ll probably take voters who would have gone LDs otherwise (the Libdems were beaten even by SSP in 2003 in C&C)
“The same people who complain about Gordon’s Scottishness seem to be the same people who push John Reid for leader” - RedFlump
A few months ago, the Tories did some polling that found voters held Brown’s Scottishness against him but not Reid’s. Strange but true.
158 - Coatbridge forms part of Scotlands picturesque ‘Buckfast Triangle’.
If you’re ever in Scotland it is a must visit location.
Lib Dems in Coatbridge? That’s a bit like expecting Tommy Sheridan to win in Royal Deeside. Awa’ wi’ ye!
132 Tom R et al. Scottish elections - Lib Dem/Tories.
I think they are pretty close, so the 3.25 on offer appears the value in the market. Gordon for the Lib Dems looks dodgy but other seats appear in the possible column. In many ways the Lib Dems in Scotland have managed what their English counterparts failed for so long in that they were able to concerntrate fire on targetted constituencies and win.
For the Conservatives the trick has to be to push the right buttons and pick up more list seats and perhaps the odd FPTP. For the punter one must evaluate whether the pre election travails have denuded any Cameron and opposition bounce. Tricky, but as I said the value appears to lie with the Tories.
162.” In many ways the Lib Dems in Scotland have managed what their English counterparts failed for so long in that they were able to concerntrate fire on targetted constituencies and win.”
Apart Aberdeen South where Ann Begg survived again in 2005. But the national tide can be too much even for her un 2009/10
In the Scottish FPTP Elections, there are six different permutations of the two parties that are currently in first and second place in the different constituencies. That is just one of the reasons why the contest on 3rd May is so interesting, and all the more surprising that the bookies haven’t opened any markets on individual seats.
163 - I’m not sure how much damage was done prior to the election to be quite honest. But since then things seem to be going better than previous camapigns and I think that Annabel Goldie in particular is having a good war. She is much more ‘human’ than her opponents and ut’s not often you can say that of a Tory leader.
A lot wil