Could the postman stop Royal at the first fence?
April 11th, 2007
Will Bescanot prevent Sego getting to the final run-off?
This is Olivier Besancenot, the 33 year old postman who might have a crucial part to play in the French presidential election a week on Sunday. He’s standing for the Ligue communiste révolutionnaire (LCR), the French section of the Fourth International and five years ago he gained 1.2 million votes or 4.25% of the vote.
This was several times the gap that the far right leader, Le Pen, had over the Socialist’s, Lionel Jospin. In that fight, as we all know, Jospin got squeezed into third place and did not make the final run-off.
Some polls show that his current support is at 2002 levels and given the recent polling set-back for the Socialist’s Royal Olivier could cream off enough support to deny a socialist candidate a place on the final ballot yet again.
One of our regular contributors, Chris from Paris, posted this afternoon that Le Monde has published an interesting paper with interviews of major pollsters :- “… explaining the difficulty of polls, they seem to try to cover themselves in case of a new shock. in particular they all consider “possible” an elimination of Royal through a surge of votes for far-left candidates and/or le pen. They continue to announce a royal/sarkozy 2nd round but…they “hedge” this prediction with a “plan B” : a Le pen/Sarkozy 2nd round”
So the Le Pen scenario discussed here yesterday is being given some credence. If the polls show that Royal is struggling then it might encourage far left voters to stick with their man.
Whatever it’s going to be an interesting final 11 days and the postman could yet have an impact as big as he did in 2002.
Mike Smithson
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Re - Labour Leadership Change Date
It is impossible for Blair to resign the leadership while remaining Prime Minister for two reasons.
There is no precedent for a Labour Prime Minister to resign the leadership first and remain PM. The only prior Labour PM to resign as PM while in power is Harold Wilson. He was very clear in his resignation announcement in 1976 - he announced his ‘intention’ to resign the leadership and asked the party NEC to trigger a leadership election. There was no ‘acting leader’ for this reason. And there was no need for him to resign on the spot (as some have wrongly claimed). Harold Wilson remained leader of the Labour Party until the election of the new leader and his formal handover at the end of the election.
(Under the Labour Party constitution there must be an ‘acting leader’ if there is no elected leader, and an ‘acting leader’ can only be appointed if the elected leader has become ‘permanently unavailable’ through death or illness.)
The second reason is that it would undermine Blair’s authority as PM if he ceased to be leader while remaining PM. It will take 2 months for the election of the new leader - hardly the length of time one would want to be PM without being leader. Blair has shown a strong desire to provide leadership - why create an ugly end to the handover through stripping himself of the leadership before the new leader is even elected - it would just undermine the Labour Party.
(Also another commentator raised the issue of whether there are constitutional implications of remaining PM while no longer leader of the Parliamentary majority)
Thus Blair will resign in exactly the same manner, through an almost identical announcement as Harold Wilson. He will follow the precedent already set. This means Q3 is inevitable. Those putting their money on Q2 are highly likley to lose it.
Short answer: no
The extreme left are nowhere in this poll.
Being quoted in one thread is the crowning achievement of my career as pb.com poster.
Concenring the far-left menace to Royal, it is all too easy to spot the tightrope on which Royal is now : she cannot sound too centrist because the far-left (virtually invisible in the polls for the moment except for Besancenot) could go up again and deprive her of a second round appearance, but she cannot sound too leftist if she wants to get the vote of those from the centre-left tempted by Bayrou.
Therefore, the brutal changes of tactics in royal’s campaign cannot only be seen as a sign of her personal inconsistency: in a way she has to do this constant changes to try to woo two very different group of voters.
The Sailors’ Tale really is a big deal, even the Guardian is spluttering.
http://politics.guardian.co.uk/foreignaffairs/story/0,,2054198,00.html?gusrc=rss&feed=19
3- My poll of polls for “small” candidates :
besancenot (troskyst) : 4.08
buffet (communist) 2,42
laguiller (trotskyst) 2,17
bové (anti-globalization) 1.92
de villiers (far-right) 1,42
voynet (green) 1,33
nihous (hunting-fishing party)1,25
schivardi (trotskyst) 0,42
so the average total of candidates to the left of Ms Royal is 12.33%
in 2002, non-socialist candidates had a total of 26.71%. If you exclude the parties not standing this time, and supporting Royal, the total was 19.06%
So the “useful vote” speeches of the socialists ever since Jospin got eliminated basically helped them to have the direct support of people representing 7.5% of the votes and to reduce more left-wing candidates’ total by another 7%;
this shows the incredible weakness of the Royal cnadidacy : with this 14% boost + jospin score (16,18%) + the advantage of being the main opposition candidate to a very unpopular government Royal should get at least 30% in the polls [mitterrand got 34% in 1988]
Her average is now 23.33% in my poll of polls. therefore, at least 7% have fled to Bayrou, offsetting half of the advantage obtained tha,nks to the “useful vote” strategy.
Without over-simplifying, it can be said that her electorate is now in majority composed of “useful voters” (14%) and not from the remaining part of the jospin vote not yet fled to bayrou (9.5%).
This is a real danger because those former far-left voters still have time to change their minds… and go home to their former parties.
This is the scenario imagined by the pollsters that would lead her score to go down to jospin-like ratings… and risk the same fate.
I still think she will go through but I think her vote will get a bit more “balanced” in the end : some bayrou-supporting socialists will come back at the last minute while far-left supporters will leave…
Anyway, only 10 more days and we will know!
5- Of course I meant non-socialist *left-wing* candidates
Is there a new Welsh poll due out or not.
Well, it seems rather odd. The French system essentially allows the far ends of the spectrum to scupper the more centrist end.
What is interesting is that the left seems keen on making sure it does not get power. Ah well.
8- I thinkt his would be a just sanction for imposing on us the rules of “equal time of speech in all media” meaning that the far-left can use freely half if the spéaking time on TV… it becomes unbearable to follow the news!
2. Spot on.
The alternatives for Round 2 are..Bayrou who I think can only make it if there is truly coherent anti-Sarkozy approach by the left (broadly abandoning Royal) and the centre, which I’m not sure quite exists at this moment. As a counter if that coalition did get going Bayrou would probably be the big chief in fairly short order.
Le Pen, whos big time was the last election. This time I don’t think he call pull off the same.
Thus that leaves us back where we were, Sarkozy, Royal.
2. It’s something which we all aspire to Chris. You should be honoured!
11- I am!
1. Will L. Nonsense. See my 204 previous.
The posts from chris in paris are useful. Perhaps the most interesting poll I have read is the one that suggests 42 per cent of those polled could change their minds in the last two weeks. If that’s correct, and Le Pen’s showing last time could be evidence of the identified trend, then the final result could be very different to that we expect.
Chris, your posts are very useful and illuminating. It’s great that we have our own correspondent on France, just as Andrea was for Italy.
If Sego does not make it to the second round, would the left ever push for a change in the electoral system for the presidency? Even though I hate first past the post, I do think that AV (and similar systems like two stage FPTP) are pretty dire too.
15 - actually AV would work a lot better for the presidency. (It’s for parliamentary elections I hate AV - too many landslides.) The cut off between second and third candidates for the second round seems far too arbitrary. M Jospin would probably agree.
Without sounding too much like Sean T, but what is it with postmen and trotskyism?
Is it the uniforms, or do they all like early mornings? Perhaps the weight of the heavy postbag makes them feel downtrodden and therefore in touch with the proletariat?
Hoow refreshing, a proper commie postman - they used to be ten a penny but our one now is more interested in his allotment than ovethrowing capitalism. I’d definitely lend him my vote in the 1st round.
17 - just spent a few days in Prague, my first visit in 10 years. Very much changed since I lived in that neck of the woods, almost all for the better. Real sense of customer service now… except from those apparatchiks who were uniforms. Gallery staff, metro staff, police… all still Commies, mark my words. Sour faced, unfriendly, authoritarian, unhelpful.
Yes, there is a link between uniforms and extremism.
I know I’m getting ahead of myself but I can’t wait for the odds for next Labour leader once Brown’s been elected. Who will be the one to watch - will it be David Miliband, will it be the new Deputy Leader or will it be John Denham? It will also depend on whether people think Labour will lose the next election and Brown will resign, or will he confound the pundits and serve a full parliament or two. More importantly, it should keep Mike fully stocked with articles!
13. Jack W. Just looked at your post 204 on the previous thread.
I don’t doubt that constitutionally you are correct. Blair could cease to be Labour leader but remain as Prime Minister. But it’s not going to happen. Will L is correct. The Labour party would not allow their Prime Minister to cease leader of the party while they are in limbo.
But it’s a very unclear market to bet upon. Betfair’s interpretation cannot be relied upon and it’s not certain that it will be after July 1st when the next leader of the Labour party is in place. But my feeling is Will L is probably right in his assessments and this could be someting we are all after on PBC. “Free money”.
20 - after Ming was elected, there were odds on the next LD leader. But they disappeared. Why? Was Clegg good value to succeed Foggy?
Is it certain to be Clegg? If Ming hangs on for a bit, I would say Jo Swinson is a good dark horse.
re 22. I gather that there is already an ABC movement - anybody but Clegg. (well anybody excluding Lembit)
23. The thought of an election between Miliband v Cameron v Clegg would drive the nation to despair.
24 - how about Boris v Lembit v the lovely Diane Abbot. That would be fun!
re 1. (Also another commentator raised the issue of whether there are constitutional implications of remaining PM while no longer leader of the Parliamentary majority)
There are no constitutional implications in this at all. There is absolutely no requirement for the party leader (or acting party leader) to be Prime Minister.
25. Now we’re talking!
24: Compared to the gripping contest between Brown, Cameron and Campbell, you mean?
Thanks from me also to Chris for his Parisian posts - a great commentary on the unfolding campaign.
And England look on course to scrape a Cricket match victory….champagne time!
I’m surprised to see people tipping the Tories to outpoll Lib Dems in Scotland. Is this in seats or votes. Is either realistic.
I’m looking at some Scottish council nominations. In the Midlothians Solidarity is standing as “Solidarity-Tommy Sheridan”. SSP is standing as “Scottish Socialist Party – Scrap Council Tax”
re 19, SBS, “except from those apparatchiks who were uniforms”
What are they now? Casuals? Or did you mean wear?
Further to my comments on the disproportionality of the Scottish system in the last thread. As you can’t have negative list seats if you do better in the FPTP in any region than your vote share allows then you’re depriving the smaller parties of top up seats. Using the poll of poll figures in today’s Indy and assuming UPS (i.e. Baxter) then this would apply if the LDs and Tories won more than the following FPTP seats in each region
Central Scotland LD 1/ C 1
Glasgow LD 1, C 1
H&I LD 3, C 2
Lothians Ld 2, C 2
Mid Scotland LD 2, C 2
NE Scotland LD 3, C 2
S Scotland LD 1, C 3
W Scotland LD 2, C 2
The only region where on these figures then this will apply is to the LDs in H&I where they should win 5 FPTPs. Therefore for an equivalent LD:C list vote we could expect the Tories to be 2 seats behind. How this relates to which way you put your money I don’t know.
Re 21,StJohn the point is Labour does not get a say unless they want to force a vote of no confidence, the Queen does.
SeanT for PM!
Re 23, Mike,
32. Sounds like if you want to bet on the Tories v Lib Dems better then put the money on the popular vote than seat numbers as the system favours Lib Dems.
O/T but I notice that Dr Crippen tips the boy David to replace Hewitt at HEalth. Cue general rejoicing all round if he does.
20. I think Yvette Cooper could be one to watch as the next Labour leader but one.
@ Centrist
This is because the centre hasn’t existed to a great extent before (they used to be indistingishable from the right).
The problem is that the left has painted so much as right wing (includeing for instant paying one’s ticket on the métro), that there’s now no way for them to row back.
One even wonders if the Socialist party will survive, I think it will but they’re looking like Labour under Foot.
In fact, all things considered, Ségo isn’t doing that badly. The very timid centrist stuff she’s come out with hasn’t gone down well with the left all, so getting such a response in the polls is rather a tour de force.
The truth is, the left isn’t willing to give France what it wants on issues like law and order, it would rather be in opposition.
Recently a band mugged a whole metro train, stealing possessions and sexually assaulting the women. The left going “poor dears, victims of society” is no-longer going down well.
36. Nice touch by GB to screw him. Just like Chirac’s attempt to run Sarkozy over by making him Finance Minister.
Has a future Prime Minister ever been Health Secretary?
40 - John Moore was, I believe, Heath Secretary in the 1980s and was widely touted as the Thatcher’s successor.
David Miliband would be a very good Education Secretary. He was well thought of as School Standards Minister.
41 - I meant an actual future PM, not an “actual future PM”
43 - I know, and I think the answer to your question is no.
Shetland Islands nominations: all Indipendents except 2 Libdems, 1 Con and 2 SSP
44 SBS. Actually Chamberlain was in the Cabinet as Health Minister in the National Government.
I remember it well !!
Jack W is 104.
45 in Dundee it seems to be 2 SNP 2 Lab 1 Con 1 LibDem 1 SSP and 1 Solidarity per ward with a few independents thoughout the 8 wards.
re 46. Chamberlain was MInister of Health on several occasions and for a prolonged period so the answer is probably yes. List here
Political car crash TV - watch a haplass Cathie Jamieson being interviewed on Newsnight Scotland yesterday.
http://www.tartanhero.blogspot.com/
48 Chris A. The answer is yes. Chamberlain was Minister for Health in the Cabinet for the first few months of the first National government from August to November 1931.
Clegg taking over from Ming this year would be good news for Brown. Cameron’s only USP- that he is younger than his competitors-disappears and Brown becomes the only leader with experience age and gravitas!
Browne’s little local difficulty has the great advantage that if he doesn’t lose his job because of the ’selling the story’ fiasco at least the next leader will be able to sack him with no questions asked. Reid can replace him. Reid’s ‘talents’ would suit being incharge of the military and the Home Office could be taken over by a human being. Denham perhaps?
Re 51, Roger, Reid has f*cked up defence before, so no thanks!
Roger - Reid’s done the Defence job - remember his quote about not a shot being fred in the British deployment to Helmand? He’s running out of Cabinet posts to try out - Foreign Sect, Chancelor or PM needed for full house.
Milliband on Newsnight now. Singularly unimpressive. He’s a well-meaning and waffly geek, at best - to be outcharisma’d by Chris Huhne is some achievement.
If Labour choose him they are even stupider than they appear. Brown at least has gravitas, even if he is doomed to defeat. Milliband is the bastard child of Adrian Mole and Bill Gates.
re 50 Jack, according to Wikipedia (so pinches of salt ready) he was also MoH in the first half of the Bonar Law government (after the initial appointee was defeated in the resulting by election) and throughout the first Baldwin government.
54.”Milliband is the bastard child of Adrian Mole and Bill Gates”
seant, who delivered him between Mole and Gates?
Re 54 SeanT, At the end of the last thread, JackW suggested you for PM after Blair, Patrick with an A level in economics has offered to be your chancellor. What say you?
re 55. In fact Griffith-Boscawen seemed to make a habit of losing by elections when beign appointed to ministerial office because the year before the Minister of Health one he lost the by election after becoming Minister of Agriculture as well. If only we hadn’t amended the rules in 1925, imagine what fun could be had these days!
“I didn’t know about this decision until it had been taken.”
Tony Blair on the 15 hostages being given permission to sell their stories. How carefully worded was his statement?
49.Marcia, I have to agree with you about Cathie Jamieson. I am a fan of “only an excuse” so I just can’t take her seriously.
57. Benedict, in the event of a Hung Parliament, I am confidently expecting a phone call from the Queen. I hear she is already a keen toffeewombler. You will be Minister for Unexpected Ponytails.
BTW If anyone doubts the complete veracity of the Bible, can I - a la Benedict White - point them in the direction of my latest blogpost:
http://toffeewomble.blogspot.com/2007/04/my-visit-to-paradise.html
60 - wonder if her campaign rooms are in Lidl’s or Primark?
Re 61, SeanT, I would of course be both proud, honoured, and indeed ponytailed to serve
62.Don’t forget TKmax.
64
goodnight all
62.Marcia I came across this on Scotland roundup.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HuvLVXXKt6I
59 - Indeed so.
It’s absolutely impossible, in any circumstances, to know about any decision before it’s been taken. Up until that moment it’s merely a suggestion rather than a decision isn’t it?
However, it’s entirely possible to know about a decision after it’s been taken but prior to it actually being implemented…
Re 67, yup, that is about the size of it.
I should also have added that you can’t know about a decision until it’s been taken even if you’re the one who’s taking the decision.
Example: I didn’t know about my decision to have a cheese omlette for dinner tonight until I’d taken that decision…
SNP will be called “Alex Salmond For First Minister” in the regional vote on ballat papers (at least in Highlands and Islands Region. I’ve seen just their regional lists nominations).
I read about going with “”Alex Salmond For First Minister” , but I thought they would have left SNP before it
70. I think they’ll use that name everywhere in the regional vote.
70 the SNP Party symbol will be on the ballot and will have SNP under it. The election count for Lothian may have to be manual as the machines can only count these if there are 21 candidates on the list - 22 are standing.
I can see using “Alex Salmond for First Minister” or “Solidarity-Tommy Sheridan”, but what’s the point of ”
Scottish Socialist Party - Lorna Bett”?
Is this Lorna so vote appealing?
49 - truly shocking media performance. Way worse than CK’s drunken election press conference - perhaps because it went on for so long - and she has no charm.
Question 1: If there is an SNP / LD coalition in Scotland, could they introduce Local Income Tax, or is it a Westminster decision?
Question 2: Are the Tories planning to find an alternative to council tax? They harp on about it, and campaign against any reform of it. But an alternative? I think Cameron may need to pull a rabbit out of the hat on this some time in the next 3 years.
74. “truly shocking media performance”
She’s Labour’s campaign chairperson. That explains many things of the campaign…
74 - with politicians like Cathie Jamieson, I do despair about Scottish Holyrood politics. Donald Dewar, Jim Wallace, even David McLetchie were giants of the political stage next to her. In fact, Nicol Stephen, Annabel Goldie and Nicola Sturgeon are giants next to her - which says something.
Alex Salmond is of course the biggest giant of them all.
75 - “She’s Labour’s campaign chairperson” - so she can’t even blame other people for her being badly briefed.
76. Denis Canavan looks a political giant too next to her. Ah, wait Labour panel thought it wasn’t good enough for Holyrood, whilst apparently Jamieson was…
http://www.guardian.co.uk/frontpage/story/0,,2055127,00.html
for heaven sake,is he or is he not? i can’t take this anymore…
Re 79, As I reported here, his official position is that he will not run unless he does. (Is that clear?) See here:
http://aconservatives.blogspot.com/2007/03/miliband-will-he-or-wont-he-run.html
79. Blairites look a bit too desperate…
I see setting the ‘benchmark’ game has started in the press. The Indie thinks Labour will lose 600 seats n the locals and that if Cameron …… well you read it.
Cameron’s test is to secure Tory votes ‘north of Watford’
http://news.independent.co.uk/uk/politics/article2442001.ece
re 80
is this becoming a little bit boring or is just me?
“he will” “i’m not”….and the same old thing every day.
for how long the blairites are going to look for a “credible” candidate?.
re 81
a little bit?they’re very desperate
Re 83, and indeed 84, Me. they are very very very desperate. They think that Brown would be a disaster and lose them the next election. They are correct on both counts but the problem is that there is no credible alternative who would be better or win the next election.
re 85
i think is too early to say who is going to win the next GE,but i do believe that brown will be the next labour leader,because that is no credible alternative,and i’m not saying that brown is,but he is the only one that has the necessary support…and if miliband does win(i find very improbable) what would he do with the brownites?
Re 86, Me, “and if miliband does win(i find very improbable) what would he do with the brownites?”
Cry, and wish he hadn’t won.
83
Miliband. To slightly change the adage
“the cat would eat fish but he will not get his feet.”
I actually think he could beat Brown but he won’t unless he tries and any opportunities in the future will doubtless come with rivals in the fresh face stakes.
88 that should be “… feet wet” of couse
89 couse = course
Too many typos. I think I will get some sleep.
87
laughs…
is the only option
re 88
why do you think he can win?
Re 88 et seq, HenryH, quite possibly.
re 91, Me, The Brownites would become a more malignant cancer than they have already been. It would not be a sign of weakness to cry in those circumstances.
“It would not be a sign of weakness to cry in those circumstances”
is understandable to cry in those circumstances …
labour has two malignant cancers,blairites and brownites,things can only get worse if miliband wins
re 94,Me, “labour has two malignant cancers,blairites and brownites,things can only get worse if miliband wins”
Should be:
Things can only get worse.
re 95
and the other side:
what would brown do with the ultra blairites?
Re 96, Me, I refer you to the answer I gave at 87.
re 97
laughs…
so i refer you to your answer at 95
“things can only get worse”
in a certain way i think brown can “control” better the blairites(not the ultra),but i don’t think miliband can control the brownites…strange thing
Re 98, Me. I agree. In fact, Me too!
laughs
the only thing we can do now, is wait to see the news tomorrow
“Miliband under pressure”…it seems to me that who is under pressure now is browne,but not for the leadership…
re 100. me, yes.I think he ought to go, but then so should I, to bed. Goodnight!
goodnight for you too
Sarkozy v. Le Pen is more likely than Sarkozy v. Bayrou.
Sarkozy v. Royal is more likely than either.
7. Yes there is another Welsh Poll due shortly (thursday I think??) - a Beaufort Research ‘Omnibus’ poll. Results apparently very different from the earlier NOP poll, but how much faith can you put in any of these Welsh Polls.
Plaid has been polled at 8%, 20% & 30% so far. Of course, when this poll has us at 35% it will be the most accurate ;0)