PBC Combined Book Launch and Party
April 13th, 2007-
Tuesday 17th April – National Liberal Club – 3pm – 7pm
Harriman House, publishers of Mike’s book, are offering a bottle of champagne to whoever gets closest to guessing the amount of the advance to Tony Blair for his political memoirs. Entry is free. Just email me at arklebar@talktalk.net. If you want a copy of the book to collect at the Launch, you can get it for the knock down price of £10 by contacting Tom Orchard through this link.
When you arrive at the Club, just give your (real) name at reception. I will try to organize name badges, which will give your ‘stage’ name, where applicable. The function is being held in The Lady Violet Room. There is a dress code of jacket, collar and tie (no tutus) at the NLC.
It is relaxed for visitors but those not suitably clad will be restricted to the party room and will therefore be unable to join the Tour Party which has been promised or wander around what is a magnificent building.
There will be nibbles and some wine but there will be journalists there so we cannot reasonably expect the alcohol to last beyond 3.15pm!!!
Above is the final list of attendees. If you think your name should be on it but it is not, please contact me immediately.
If you have any problems and in particular if you can’t find whichever pub we repair to after the event, do give me a ring on 07880 553351.
See you there.
Peter Smith (Peter the Punter)
MessageSpace Advertising
Harriman House are responsible for inviting the MPs, journalists and other riff-raff, so I don’t have a full list of them, but expect it to include the following:-
Nick Palmer MP
John Hemming MP
Stuart Jackson MP
Dan Rogerson MP
Ian Dale
Anthony Wells
Paul Staines (Guido)
If anybody has second thoughts about attending, can they please let me know as we may be able to fill the vacancy.
Oh, and your guesses for the Blair Advance - I’ll need them by 12 noon Tuesday if they are to be included. (By the way, helpful hint for this is that the amount is thought to be more than SeanT is getting for his next novel.)
The address of The National Liberal Club is Whitehall Place, SW1A 2HE which is just off Whitehall but if you need a map I suggest you try Multimap. If desperate, ring me and I’ll talk you in.
Can’t think of anything else but no doubt you will let me know if I have.
Matt (and partner) - I feel sorry for the partner
Just kidding, hope it’s a good laugh guys!
I’m coming and, frankly, find your 3.15 pm wine deadline a little over optimistic
2 Well presumably Matt’s partner will be Mark, and St John will be bringing Luke?
3 On reflection, you’re right Nick. I’ll open a spread betting market on it, I think. Opening spread is 3.05/3.07.
Looking forwards to Tuesday!
(If anyone is interested in eating beforehand,there is a very nice cafe at the top (Trafalgar Square end) of Whitehall that does very nice gammon+ chips-I recall from a day in London in 2004)
damn. i know what the advance is (roughly). shame i’ll miss the champagne…although who knows if Joe’s Edge comes in each way tomorrow
Really hope to make it. I have a meeting in Oxford at 12 - and I hope it doesn’t scupper things. In any case, I’ll make it to the pub afterwards if all else fails.
Patrick@6
eating beforehand might be a sound strategy. Although with journos and MPs around the potential for self-harm may be somewhat mitigated. I’ve not had the opportunity to watch a feeding frenzy at first hand before, so it should be interesting!
9,Its kind of a shame that I have a ultra-strict policy with myself-NO alcohol before my evening meal (I have had a serious drink problem in the past,abstained totally for 3 1/2 years,then on the advice of middle-aged friends,went back to evening drinking only.But I will enjoy myself sober !
Quite a do! Not only do we have Christopher Squire (bass player with “Yes”), we also have Neil Foster (former Essex and England medium pace bowler).
Have a nice party…and take lots of pics!
OT. We pb.comers already noticed it, but now BBC has covered Deputty contenders on facebook (and myspace)
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/politics/6551689.stm
They seem to have not found Jon Cruddas Facebook fans page, but it exists (it’s called “Cruddas 4 Deputy!”. Maybe they didn’t find it as they kept on calling John in the piece, but he’s Jon without the H
4. Very good Peter! I assume you will be holding the keys to the pearly gates of the National Liberal Club?
Best of luck with Joes Edge. I’ve already backed Dun Doire but the ground appears to have gone against it.
Backing the National winner. 4 easy steps.
1. Choose a horse aged 9 or 10,
2 Carrying 10 stone 12lb or less,
3 Which is trained in Ireland,
4 And that won last year’s Irish Grand National.
Or simply follow step 4. Applies to the last 2 English Grand National winners.
Solution. Point Barrow. (FPTP)
Thanks again for organising the party PTP.
Must have involved a lot of hard work. Look forward to meeting you all.
If all the booze and grub is expected to be gone by 3.15pm, what pray are we expected to do for the following three and three quarter hours and by the way is it a non-smoking establishment?
BTW - Please would remind us of the NLC address and the nearest tube and, should we get fed up as with the absence of food, drink and ciggies, perhaps your suggestions as regards a suitable local hostelry.
14 Sorry - I see you’ve included the address above.
14 As a smoker (intending to give up for the pub ban on July 1st),I share your concern.
(BTW,the smoking ban will co-incide within days of GB probably becoming PM-I wonder if he’ll be blamed?)
14 Seriously, there’s nibbles and about half a bottle of wine each. Maybe you could put in a bid for Patrick’s share.
I think The Sherlock Holmes is a pretty popular pub in Northumberland Ave, but it’s a while since I was there.
No idea about smoking but I would imagine it’s OK. It is a liberal establishment, after all.
PtP Yes, many thanks for organising this event.
Just one little itsy bitsy little point I feel I need to raise with you - on the basis that Journalists never pay for anything or, if they do, they claim double the amount back through their expenses - might I enquire whether they are getting into this bunfight for free, whilst we mere mortals have each stumped up a tenner?
If the answer to the above question is “Yes” - then my supplementary question would have to be - PtP, are you or have you ever been a journalist?
13. Oops. Last year’s English National winner Numbersixvalverde had won the previous year’s Irish Grand national but this stat does not apply to 2005 winner Hedgehunter. Does apply to Bobbyjo winner in 1999.
I’ll shut up now.
17,Paws off the grub-I’d gladly donate the wine to a fellow guest though:wink:
Is this place Liberal Democrat HQ on electionnight.
17 “there’s nibbles and about half a bottle of wine each”
Hmm - you really weren’t kidding about it all being gone by 3.15pm were you?
Looking forward to meeting you all! I thought that I’d wangled a work visit in London in the morning (i.e. getting my travel expenses paid for!) but alas no more….
Anyway, we had a Grand National sweepstakes at work today, and I entered 2 horses. My first was Homer Wells, however my second, would you believe it, was Joe’s Edge! Reputations are about to be made or broken peter the punter…
Have a good time everyone. Wish I could be there but no chance this year. There is a good pub opposite the Whitehall theatre. Lots of interesting people go there.
13 St John - The Grand National, more than any other race I know, lends itself to a formulaic approach. I won’t bore you with the details but by applying the usual criteria, I got it down to Joe’s Edge, Point Barrow and Hedgehunter. I’ll probably have a small saver on on Point Barrow and Hedgehunter, whilst laying off part of the win portion of the bet I placed on Joe’s Edge at 20/1 a couple of weeks back.
There’s another speculative bet you might like to try too. Sporting Index run a market on the number of finishers. It is currently 16.5/17.5. That’s a bit high. It seems to be based on the unusually fine weather and consequent quick going, but I was watching today and the going isn’t all that quick. I think the maximum number of finishers ever is 23 and a fast pace often leads to more fallers, not fewer. Also, the weather is forecast to be hot and that will inconvenience all but the true stayers.
I reckon 16.5 is a safe sell - but go steady. Worst case is a loss of 24, so even at a modest £10 per point you are risking £240.
19 I think I’ll plead the Fifth Amendment on that one, PtP.
27 pFp!!! Bloody hell, I’m doing it now.
27 Even as I was keying in my post, I rather thought you might!
22 - no, that’s Cowley Street.
24 tpfkar - Homer Wells is no hopeless case either. The trainer had a winner at Aintree today.
Cheers Ptp. I think I’ll stick to my usual formula of backing 5. A nap bet Point Barrow. Medium sized bet Dun Doire as I’m stuck with it as already on antepost. You never know with his trainer. A saver on your’s, Joes Edge. And 2 speculative each way longer shots, to be decided. Could be Bothar Na and Bewleys Berry?
Should be a great race.
Grice was spinning yesterday that if the Lib Dems shipping seats to the Tories in the South, but gain seats from Labour in the North to compensate this is not good news fir them but is it. I think the majority view is that some Lib Dem slippage of seats to the Conservatives in the south is all but inevitable at the next Election. So look at it another way if the Lib Dems are eyeing Labour seats north of the Trent to compensate where should we look to see them make gains. I know Newcastle is the obvious one, but any others. WRT Wales I think the elections this May in Cardiff, Swansea and Newport and again next year will be critical as to whether they can really be a force to be reckoned with.
22 and 30,And you may recall in 1997 the Lib Dems celebrated their results at the Pizza On The Park (as it sounds,a pizza parlour) on election night
34 There’s green for you!
31: Glad to hear that. There are prizes for 1,2, and 3, so if I get a 1-2 that will do nicely! Of course, if they both take each other out at the first fence you will know who I am on Tuesday…
34. Was the NLC founded in response to the Carlton club founding.
37 No idea, but I am told the Liberal Party was once large and important. Must have been a long while ago.
Jack W at 104 must be the only PB.commer to remember the last Liberal government…
39 Hmmm…Mike?
Hi - first posting and a bit off topic but I’d like your wise advice please.
On the Blair Switch Market on Betfair why is Apr-Jun 07 not much shorter. If he resigns in May which seems by far the most likely outcome they will settle based on this. The only way I see that this is not the case is if a replacement is elected at the beginning of July and despite Blair’s resignation he still nominally remains ‘official leader’. Does anyone have any thoughts. Thanks.
40, How did you guess that was my first name?
38. Fascinating what if on 18 Doughty street. If Herbert Gladstone hadn’t been dumb enough to give the LRC its first foothold in Parliament they could have strangled almost immediately. I wonder if Labour will rue the decision to give the Liberal Democrats a helping hand ahead of the 1997 landslide as much as Liberals did helping the LRC aheadof the 1906 Landslide in times fullness…
41 -Alexi - Many, many posts have been writtrn on this subject, inluding a lead thread by our host very recently.
It really all depends when TB formally relinquishes his position as leader, as opposed to continuing as PM and your interpretation of Betfair’s rather muddled rules wording - good luck!
42 Hmm…Mike Scallywag. Cool name.
Alexi @ 41, welcome. Betfair’s Blair Switch market is a somewhat hoary old chestnut. In short, no-one knows.
The consensus is that Blair will announce his resignation shortly after May’s local (and Scottish and Welsh) elections, and that his successor will take over as Prime Minister in the autumn.
Now, whether in the interim, Blair is leader or acting leader or chief cook and bottle-washer is less clear, and whether Betfair will settle on the Q2 announcement or the Q3 succession is totally up in the air. This is why Q2 and Q3 are roughly equal in the betting and why people should steer clear of this market.
41 Welcome Alexi - Not much to add to what my fellow PBers have told you except to confirm that I wouldn’t back either option at less than evens precisely because of the uncertainty. Even if the rules were clearer, the consensus seems to be that the formal departure will take place end of June/beginning of July.
It’s a dead market really.
Re 1, Ah Peter, I finally get to meet Iain Dale! (I have met Guido before)
I will of course bring a writ for discrimination, as I was hoping to wear my tutu!
44 Peter - thanks for the reply.
I have an email from them saying they will settle when he either resigns or is replaced - whichever happens first.
On this basis (ie that they honour their word and assuming he does resign in May!) the bet will only lose if he says in May that he will resign on the appointment of the new leader which after 2 days of nominations, 7 weeks of hustings/voting and perhaps 3/5 days of waiting for an official appointment meeting might just take the date of replacement into very early July.
Or am I missing something else.
Thanks
Alexi
49 - You are missing the fact that Betfair’s word is worth less than that of Mr T. Blair - or any other slippery politian you care to mention.
49 LOL Alexi!
No, you are missing nothing, but you wouldn’t be the first to receive an email from Betfair saying one thing only to find later that they rule differently. Mike’s book relates one such famous episode. I’d tell you about it, but then you might not buy his book!
47 PtP - Here we go again on this! It’s surely not an entirely dead market whilst ever one can get odds against both Quarters (I thought that’s what is called “free money” here) and also for as long there is still some movement in this market which is still the case as you yourself have recently noted.
52 LOL! Yes, there are still a few coppers to be picked up off the floor by backing flipflopping favorites, but I think Alexi is after some real money!
Re 16, Patrick, “BTW,the smoking ban will co-incide within days of GB probably becoming PM-I wonder if he’ll be blamed?”
Well I am working our a way to blame him for the First World War, so I am sure I can pin that on him
51 - thanks Lennon but personally I haven’t had any problems with Betfair (I know others have).
I took Sporting Index to the FSA a couple of years ago. I sold Cambridge United season points 4 days before they went into administration (which automatically loses you 10 points) and they said I knew it was going to happen and voided the trade (the rules on this market have subsequently been changed because of this) they said I had inside knowledge. The only thing I knew was that they were in a dire financial position and it was a possibility and on that basis I’d been selling their points all season. Guess what the FSA found in their favour!
Btw and OT, did anybody else notice a News 24 report from Paris on a Sarkozy rally there? It struck me as very favorable to him. Whether coincidentally or not, his price has contracted further.
He’s starting to look a bit of a shoo-in.
This time to wine used spread idea is interesting. With a couple of paid insiders I could rig that and clean the bookie out….
53 PtP - I think you’re right, Alexi IS after the big money and based on 55 he sounds pretty canny to me!
55 The main problem we have, Alexi, is with their weak definitions and poorly-framed rules.
I’m surprised the FSA found against you. I found them very helpful when I had a dispute with IG Index. The matter was settled amicably in the end.
57 Whilst about it, Yokel, have a word with Ian Jones. He’s running in the London Marathon and for a small consideration, I’m sure he could be persuaded to throw it.
55 & 37
Peter they were very helpful but unfortunately they came to the wrong conclusion!
With regard to the Carlton Club I have a friend who joined purely on the basis that they are sitting on c£100m (he reckons) of prime real estate and that at some stage (David Cameron won’t be happy)it will be sold.
60. I see he’s attending the event too….could be a double coup!
What charitee is he running for again?
I’m still recovering from Aintree today Peter. I keep looking at Jack the Giant tomorrow though I do fear Fair Along.
62 It’s a North London hospice. Haven’t got the link but I’m sure Ian can provide it.
That looks a tricky race. Pass.
Our friend Detroit City is out again but I’ve got a sneaky fancy for Afsoun, which ran very well in the Champion and might find conditions here more to his liking.
63. Funny you should mention Afsoun. I wondered whether the extra half mile might be the making of him as he’s a kind of an almost but not quite there kind of horse. Not sure on the going though, I thought he liked it better softish, though he has a fast going win to his name last year.
64 The going is nowhere near as fast as people seem to think. Wichita Lineman didn’t get home and nor did Blythe Knight later on, even though it won. The stimp was reading 7.8 - that’s good, no more. Afsoun may not win, but if he doesn’t, it won’t be because of the ground.
Looks good!
Just back from Sweden, where I was being pursued by calls from the Sunday Times and Channel 4 on who I wanted/expected as Labour leader - interestingly, for the third time recently, the journalist had picked up my comments on pb.com, suggesting that the forum is getting increasingly widely-read (hasn’t happened to me in the past).
Looking forward to Tuesday - Have been away in Vienna - have I missed anything? - apart from disaster re Blairs YouGov rating
Hoping for great things from Joe in the National!
66 Fret not, Nick. One day you may be as well known as Mike Smithson.
67 - “Hoping for great things from Joe in the National!”
Hmm…beginning to think that if this animal doesn’t do the business tomorrow, I might be throwing a sickie on Tuesday.
PtP @ 1: “Harriman House are responsible for inviting the MPs, journalists and other riff-raff”
Well, I’m not an MP or a journalist so by a process of elimination I’ve worked out which category I fit into
Nick you might want to know Brown announced he is withdrawing from the campaign, due to personal reasons.
(XXXXjokeXXXX)
65. Thats interesting. Everyone has a reasonable chance then unless they are specialist on one extreme or the other..the odd thing is that I’ve been backing horses who I think have proven form on good to firm!
NLC here. I used to be a Multimap fan but have recently been seduced by Google Maps.
Was it love at first sight? Sources close to the chancellor told the BBC the meeting with the president was completely unplanned.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/6554561.stm
69. Look at the plus side, you clearly arent the only one who fancies this horse looking at the weight of money thats been going on him.
Ptp. I agree Joes Edge and Point Barrow are the 2 profile horses. So hopefully we can hold our heads high come Tuesday if either succeed?
Just wondering about Graphic Approach? Charlie Egerton came close a few years ago carrying my money. He’s no Don Quixote. Certainly no fool.
74.”BBC the meeting with the president was completely unplanned.”
Did they meet by accident on the street whilst shopping?
11. Sorry to disappoint! I’m just a bit of a lurker and huge fan of this site.
Hope everyone enjoys the PB.com party and book launch, best of luck with the book Mike.
76 Egerton gets great results from a small string. I wouldn’t put a line through any of his horses without thinking carefully, and certainly not Graphic Approach.
77. Andrea, they seem to be desperate to emphasis that the meeting was unplanned. The supposed next UK PM just happened to be passing and Bush said “Yo Brown” pop in to the White House since your in town.
81. Chris
Do you know that I’m now a Scottish Tory? 
(look at this morning’s thread…afternoon comments)
81 Gordon just “happened” to be in the White House, George just “happened” to hear he was visiting and surprise! there just “happened” to be a space in the diary!
82.
But Andrea, I thought that you were a soc1alist with a soft spot for the best dressed tory MP.
66 “Just back from Sweden”
Would that be from one of those well-trodden fact-finding missions, Nick, aka freebies?
84. Chris, it seems that I had a big secret. I was almost scared this afternoon…
86. What an utterly bizarre post from this character, saw they had an equally baffling pop at Mark Senior as well.
70 Oh no, Anthony, please don’t misunderstand. Politicians, journalists, and others - all riff-raff. I like to insult without discrimination.
Re 86 and 87.Which thread?
84, Best dressed Tory MP? Ken Clarke then………
89 - It at no. 98 two threads back Benedict. It’s quite bizarre but very entertaining. I would love to see Pendle Grass being given a guest slot.
89.It was the thread from this morning “Do you fancy being a “trader” on the general election?”. I think the first post was 98?
90.Yokel, I don’t think they do hush puppies in Milan.
90 - Not a chance it has to be Bill ‘Biggles’ Walker.
http://www.centraleast-atc.org.uk/photos/main%20photos/news_Walker-Reid1.jpg
I see that last week’s WA poll is being rubbished by having it’s methodology questioned here
Many thanks for the answers to my 89.
BTW, any one fancy visiting my blog? Go on, you know you want to! it is here:
http://aconservatives.blogspot.com/
(Could do with another 6 visitors before 1 am!
The Guardian has an interview with Gordon Brown today.
http://politics.guardian.co.uk/labourleadership/story/0,,2057104,00.html
“Courage and caution, driving forces behind man who would be king”
I smiled at the combination of courage and caution in relation to Brown the politician, does not fit with the reality.
Benedict what’s the etymology of the verb “fisk”?
87. Chris D. Poor Mark Senior was driven to mid afternoon urgent consumption of repeated Bacardis and Coke. I have personal knowledge what a G and T is but hadn’t heard of a B and C before.
Given Ptp’s implicit encouragement I’ve had a sneaky £7 on Graphic Approach to win the National at odds between 160-180/1!
Good night and good luck.
Re 96 ChrisD, yes I am aware of that article.
He may be right that the time of celebrity is gone, but that does not mean his time has come!
Oh, and I still need at least another 4 visitors in the next 6 minutes so get on with it!
99. Benedict got to disagree, the time of celebrity is still here but NewLabour and the Blair/Brown projects time has come and gone to late for Brown to get enough of a bounce to deliver him a GE.
O/T I, for one, will definitely not be watching the Grand National tomorrow. I really don’t enjoy seeing proud animals breaking their legs or necks and having to be destroyed or, if they’re lucky enough to survive, being flogged twice around a merciless course to the point of total exhaustion - evidenced by the fact that some years only a handful actually complete the race.
No, not for me thanks.
Re 97, ChrisD, It is a term for line by line or point by point ripping apart of a load of tosh,named after Robert Fisk of the Independent.
See here for more:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fisking
re 100, ChrisD, I think my point was based on hypothetically conceding that the time of celebrity may have ended, rather than saying it had, as it were, for the sake of argument.
101. Pfp. It’s an important point that you make and one that I have personally wrestled with over the years.
Most years the majority of horses come home safe and sound but I acknowledge that one or two fatalities do occur some years. Horse welfare has improved considerably over the years and jockeys’ fair treatment of horses is scrutinised intensely.
It is argued that most racehorses have a tremendous life day to day and that they enjoy racing. And without racing most wouldn’t be bred and therefore wouldn’t exist. A similar argument of course applies to the rearing of sheep/cattle etc for meat produce. Although those animals lives are of course much shorter.
But I take your point and share your admiration and concern for these noble animals.
102.&103. Benedict you are getting your Chris’s mixed up, I had to look up etymology.
Re 105, ChrisD,
Well, you have got two bits of information then!
104 stjohn - Please don’t get me wrong, I’m not again racing, far from it - it’s a fine sport and I agree that the horses, generally, really appear to enjoy it.
My distaste and disgust is directed specifically towards this one race, which I consider goes way beyond the point of reasonable endurance into the realm of cruelty. But for its long tradition and the power of the betting industry, I doubt it would have survived in this so-called enlightened age.
107 “But for its long tradition and the power of the betting industry, I doubt it would have survived in this so-called enlightened age.”
I agree, PfP. If the race didn’t already exist, you certainly wouldn’t invent it.
The general public that has no special interest in National Hunt but gets excited about it once a year tends to see this race as the epitome of the sport. It is not. For a start, it’s a handicap, albeit a pretty decent one. Secondly, it is over an extreme distance. There are few races above 3m 2f; 4m 4f is therefore truly exceptional. The extraordinary fences add to its peculiarity, contributing to the view of regular NH fans that it is something of a novelty race.
The sport has responded to entirely proper concerns, such as yours, by modifying the course to make it as safe as practically possible without altering the fundamental nature of the race. The result is that the attrition rate is no worse than in any other long distance (>3m) chase.
Personally, I wouldn’t give a stuff if the race were abolished. We could perhaps then give more status to fairer and stronger races such as the Gold Cup and King George. Of course, there is no question of this happening so the continued reexamination of the conditions of the race is the right way to go.
Your other points have been ably and fairly answered by St John. I have little to add except to emphasise that National Hunt supporters are horse lovers. Without us, these wonderful animals would be a rarity outside of zoos. I decided long ago that it was preferable to have the racing with all its risks than to consign the species to the history books.
All this does not however detract from the main thrust of your argument, PfP, which is that we are responsible for the well-being of the horses and we should show that their trust in us is not misplaced by ensuring that a proper balance between risk and sport is maintained.