Could the pollsters be overstating the SNP again?
April 14th, 2007
Are both Labour and the Tories be doing better than the surveys suggest?
With the Scottish elections less than three weeks away and almost all the polls pointing to the SNP finishing up as top party in the Scottish Parliament it is perhaps worth looking at the record of polling in Scotland.
For as the above table on how the pollsters fared in 2003 illustrates there is a strong tendency for all the firms to over-state the SNP vote.
-
Could the same thing be happening again and that Alex Salmond is not quite as certain to become the country’s First Minister as many are predicting?
In the constituency vote last time all the pollsters overstated both Labour and the SNP. On the regional list all but Populus, which got it spot on, over-stated the SNP.
The Tories were understated by all the pollsters in the constituency vote and by all but YouGov in the regional list.
The big difference between now and then is the sheer scale of support for the SNP, up to 39%, that the pollsters are finding. Labour are also doing much worse nationally than they were four years ago. Even if the polling numbers for the SNP are on the high side then it appears that there is still considerable slack.
The only polling oddity was the one published last weekend by MRUK which had Labour on an incredible 37% on the regional list - which compared with the 29% that the party achieved when the party was in a much better state in 2003. That pollster is not listed as a member of the British Polling Council, does not have to follow the transparency rules and I would be prepared to wager a four figure sum that they are wrong. Are there any takers on the Herald that published the poll or from the pollster?
Mike Smithson
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Sound analysis Mike. This campaign seems to be going in only one direction. For the Prime Minister to make ‘please don’t give me a kicking’ his main campaign pitch looks like Labour are desperate and afraid.
In your tables above, the SNP were over-polled by 2.75 points on average. Were that true again, they would still be in a strong position.
I think that we have been here many times with the SNP. They always promise much but when it comes to the ballot box wise Scots men and women pull back. Scotland has done very well by Labour and they know it. It was our party that gave the country the constitutional settlement it wanted - devolution but not the extreme SNP split that would be a disaster. Why mess things up now?
We are in the “time for a change era”.
What if the polls are actually underestimating the Labour decline.
The Scottish Polls last time were pretty inaccurate except for Yougov .This time we also have ICM and looking at all the Scottish polls ICM and Yougov are both giving lower SNP figures and higher LibDem/Con figures than the other pollsters . I would put rather more faith in these 2 more experienced pollsters than the others .
4 - Mark - nice to see you coming round to my way of thinking!
4 Tend to agree that ICM and YouGov look more realistic.
I do wonder though how much differential turnout will hinder Labour; Brown & Blair are trying to bolster their votes by dire warnings, hoping this will get the discontented to come out and support Labour in fear of something worse but I’m not sure that is an effective way of getting the vote out. I think you get more people out voting for something than against. SNP, Conservatives and Lib Dems seem to be more about “vote for us and we’ll do…”, Labour’s message is “Don’t vote for them”.
3 I’m with you. It is possible that previously, the pollsters hadn’t quite refined the relative intentions to vote - so maybe people asked were more inclined to go along with saying to a pollster they would vote SNP, than go along to the polling station and actually vote.
That may flip around this time, and the issue will be whether the pollsters have accurately measured those who say they are naturally Labour supporters but may not bother to vote. It seems to me that in these days of much lower turn-outs, people are far less inclined to go out and vote their tribal allegiance to a party, and more inclined to sit it out if they have some misgivings with what “their” party is doing - or if they expect “their” party is going to get a kicking. Hence bigger swings and a more volatile electorate.
I won’t be surprised if Labour does spectacularly badly in May. Just what reason is there for the Labour tribal vote to go out to vote? Ten years of gratitude to Tony Blair? To support the Iraq war? To welcome in Brown? It is hard to see what they are selling this time other than “keep out the ghastly Tories”. But in the age of Cameron, that dog don’t hunt.
O/T but see the Royal Family have come to the aid of the Government again - William & Kate have split up. So Des Browne will have relief from the popular press and other political news will be downgraded. Brown’s meeting with Bush already pushed down the BBC headlines (not mentioned at all I note in the White House news summary on the White House site so thats how important it is to the US).
Copious friendly coverage of Gordon in the Guardian today, e.g.:
http://politics.guardian.co.uk/labourleadership/story/0,,2057116,00.html
8 I seem to recall that Bush met William Hague at the White House too. So it don’t mean nuffink…
I think you are right Mike - the polls are over stating SNP support.
IMHO, people will state SNP to pollsters as a statement of both pride in their Scottishness and as a thumping for Labour (inter)nationally but when it comes to the ballot, they will quietly vote for stability and good government to continue.
Some money to be made for brave people in the bookies on this Scottish thing…
Looking at those data sets, I start to wonder about the reliability of the ‘certain to vote’ selection over the general response tbh.
Can anyone with the data and the computer know how test certain to vote figures vs all responses against known outcomes and see which is closer?
I was wondering now that the campaign is fully under way and also minor parties are getting more coverage (than usual), if we could see a raise of minor parties (Greens, far left, even the tories who were almost ignored until last month) in the final weeks at the expense of the big parties.
(OT. Peter Tatchell is seeking to be selected as the Green candidate for Oxford East. He’s in the shortlist against a local man. I wonder why he doesn’t try North Southwark and Bermondsey again)
13 Andrea, although from a different end of the political spectrum, I have a lot of time for Peter Tatchell. He was unfortunate to lose in Bermondsey as the victim of a Liberal homo-phobic campaign - when the liberal candidate, Simon Hughes, wasn’t prepared to come out himself. Not that party’s finest hour (but a reasonable insight into its workings…).
Plus anyone who is prepared to take on a Top-Ten Tyrant in the shape of Mugabe deserves some credit. Good luck to him in Oxford East.
13. The Greens in Scotland would do very well to hang on to their current seven seats. They’re all regional list seats, most of them picked up at little more than the minimum vote required to get a seat, so even a slight drop could lose them many of their seats whereas they’d need a substantial boost to pick up extra seats. The far left don’t stand a chance after Tommy Sheridan’s acrimonious split from the SSP. But the Cons might stage a bit of a recovery by picking up voters disappointed with Lab/Lib yet unwilling to vote for Salmond’s lot.
14 - for the billionth time: it wasn’t a homophobic campaign.
15. I meant a raise compared to late 2006/early 2007 polling, not a raise compared to 2003. So something like Greens going up from 5% to 7% (so practically going up to 2003 position) and the far left going up from 2 to 4% (so losing almost all their seats anyway) in the final weeks because of a bit more exposure.
16. for the billionth time,
Alex and Andrea. Do tell us what it was like on the streets, on the dorrsteps and at the count. I am sure your shared personal experiences of the campaign, there, in Bermondsey and talking to people can persuade us as towhat went on.
9. Yes, all the evidence of the contemporary media clearly demonstrates modern Britain’s disaffection with celebrity culture. Just this morning I noticed a pramface at a bus stop reading a copy of Kropotkin’s ‘Mutual Aid: A Factor of Evolution’ instead of ‘Closer’.
19. Peter Golds. I don’t want to persuade you of anything as I don’t really care at all about what you think.
19 Yep, the election was described by Gay News as “the dirtiest and most notorious byelection in British political history”. Being in central London at the time it struck me that was too.
I knew when I posted about Tatchell seeking selection in Oxford that some could have started the whole 25 years ago affair. I even said to myself “I won’t comment on it this time” as everyone has its opinion about it and won’t change.
But maybe the temptation was too high or maybe it’s just Alex and Peter Golds’s good efforts to irritate me, and so I couldn’t resist…
“has its opinion”
ops, his/her, not its. I didn’t want to deprive pb.com posters of their human being status
14 Agreed regarding Tatchell on Mugabe.
I also agree with him when he takes the churches on as well.
Especially the catholic church regarding condoms and Aids in Africa.
The pope with one gesture to reality could save millions of people.
24 ‘Its’ - although not normal usage is in fact perfectly logical, since it is silent about gender, and avoids the clumsy ‘his or her’.
You may have started a new grammatical trend, Andrea.
Back on thread……. Ted is on to something. The electorate in Scotland is as disenchanted with Labour as the rest of the country. They tend to express this disapproval by saying they will support the SNP. Polls suggest this support is despite the SNP’s independence agenda and not because of it.
Labour as a defence have only come up with scare tactics about what independence will cost while boasting about their attachment to the union.
There is a risk in this that voters may heed what Labour are saying and become dubious about the SNP but not swing back to Labour as this tactic does not address their basic desire to teach the government a lesson. Instead they may well look elsewhere for a way of demonstrating their distaste.
The LibDems are unlikely to benefit from this as they are in coalition with Labour and are feeling the unaccustomed heat of a governmental record.
So it will be other parties that benefit. And if those voters looking for a new home, however temporarily, want to punish Labour and demonstrate their attachment to the union then the Tories might do - relatively at least - particularly well.
The polls may not pick this up as those switchers to the Tories may be shy and make up their minds towards the end of the campaign. This may mean that the SNP vote is overstated and the Labour vote either more or less right or overstated.
26. Peter, thanks. Good to know it. So when you refer to more people of diffeerent gender, you can go for the generic “its”, can I?
Maybe it’ll become fashionable, trendy
27. “There is a risk in this that voters may heed what Labour are saying and become dubious about the SNP but not swing back to Labour as this tactic does not address their basic desire to teach the government a lesson. Instead they may well look elsewhere for a way of demonstrating their distaste”
In the Consistuency vote can help Labour though if voters leave Labour not for the main challenger (SNP in many seats) but if they split between SNP, Con and LD in those seats.
One of the reasons of big surge of SNP can actually mean that people want to punish Labour and SNP is second in the majority of Holyrood seats (I haven’t checked though, so I can be wrong in the number of second places)
(OT are there any unopposed returns in Scotland locals or do they new system eliminated that problem?)
If Peter Tatchell stood where I lived I’d be very tempted to vote for him; an honourable man with a fearless streak. He does a god job of presenting on 18DoughtyStreet as well. As long as he’s not allowed near the management of the economy he’d be a good independently minded addition to the Commons.
Mike, Interesting article. It will be interesting to see how the Conservatives get on. I must say I am pleased that we are looking much healthier in Wales. It would be good to improve in Scotland.
The Downing Street petition on the navy and PR:
“We the undersigned petition the Prime Minister to name and sack the person responsible for declaring that members of the armed services can sell their stories to the media.”
The response: The Prime Minister has already made it clear that he recognises that the Navy were trying to deal with a wholly exceptional situation. He has no intention of engaging in a witchhunt against people who acted honourably and in good faith in very difficult circumstances.
Translation There is no accountability in this government for c*ck ups of a monumental scale.
[32] So, Witan, you’ll be voting for whichever party promises to scapegoat a minister or official whenever they make an error of judgment that the media goes to town on, eh?
OT but maybe it can interest someone
Labour FPTP defence list at Holyrood
Cumbernauld & Kilsyth (2.1% over SNP)
Dumfries (3.4% over Con)
Kilmarnock & Loudoun (3.9% over SNP)
Dundee West (4.3% over SNP)
Glasgow Govan (5.8% over SNP)
Western Isles (5.8% over SNP)
Aberdeen Central (5.9% over SNP with LD not far behind)
Linlithgow (7.1% over SNP)
Renfrewshire West (8.8% over SNP with tories just behind)
Eastwood (9.5% over Con)
Edinburgh Central (9.5% over LD)
Stirling (9.7% over Con)
Paisley South (9.8% over SNP)
Fife Central (10.8% over SNP)
Cunninghame North (11.8% over SNP)
Livingston (12% over SNP)
Greenock & Inverclyde (12.7% over LD)
Glasgow Kelvin (14.9% over SNP)
East Kilbride (15.5% over SNP)
Glasgow Pollok (15.5% over SSP)
Dunfermline West (16.2%)
Clydebank & Milngavie (17.1% over SNP)
Edinburgh North & Leith (17.2% over SNP)
Paisley North (19.4% over SNP)
+ Coatbridge & Chryston (30%+ majority but with “saving our hospital” candidate running)
Hi guys, re the previous thread, I fear I may not be able to make the knees-up at the Liberal Club, due to unexpected but literally unavoidable fatherly duties, suggested by my daughter’s mother (when I say unavoidable, I mean: you try avoiding a saucepan when she hurls it at you; she’s got a great aim).
I still hope to be there for the fag-end of the bash, or maybe the pub thingy afterwards, so people might still get a chance to punch me, with a little luck. Fingers x’d.
SNP are deffo gonna win the most seats in Holyrood. Why didn’t I take evens?
*Groan*
Now back to the decorating.
29 - Not as such Andrea. But there is a guaranteed Conservative seat and a guaranteed SNP seat on Perth & Kinross council.
This is due to one three member ward having 2 Conservative candidates, 1 SNP and 1 LD. The other has 2 SNP, 1 Conservative and 1 LD.
I haven’t seen any others though.
Also noticed that Labour are allready down 10 in South Lanarkshire bringing them up to around -40 seats so far.
That wasn’t me at 16 - being 4 at the time I was a bit young to have a view
On topic, I wonder if there is a case for saying that the SNP will, paradoxically, benefit from the polls generally suggesting a lessening of support for Independence. Labour’s attacks on the supposed dangers independence are less likely to help them electorally if people don’t think that voting SNP will mean that independence will happen. (A bit similar to Hague and “Save the Pound” in 2001, once Blair had promised a referendum)
38. “That wasn’t me at 16 ”
Pendle Witch will monitoring your IT access now
37. Max, thanks.
38 - It’s Pendle Grass Andrea. You’re Pendle Witch remember.
40. Max, ops, sorry. You’re naturally right I’m Pendle Witch. My brother is standing for the tories in Gordon and I work in Scottish Tory HQ. Rumours are that I’m actually a SSP mole among the tories. Right?
38 Andrea, as we all now know from the Witch’s exposure of your secret shameful identity you are really only a (long) train journey away from the National Liberal Club perhaps you should attend in SeanTs absence
19. Anyway, maybe I shouldn’t have been so sharp at 19 with Peter Golds and I should have tried to persuade him. I post the personal experience of a canvasser at that time:
“I was involved in Bermondsey. I campaigned, canvassed and was at the count - I got Shirley Williams thrown off the counting floor.
It was an utterly vile campaign. May I quote Peter Tatchell “By the end of the campaign the Liberals were almost as tainted in their vote catchng techniques as the “Real Labour” canvassers. It was sad that they should stoop to such levels”
Had I been a Bermondsey voter I would have voted for Peter Tatchell as a protest. In fact, I know a staunch (female) Conservative who did exactly that.
by Peter Golds April 10th, 2007 at 10:27 pm ”
Is the Peter Golds opinion and personal experience enough to persuade Peter Golds himself?
35 You’ll be sorely missed SeanT, especially by those who were planning to take a swing.
Thanks for letting me know, as the strett value of Party tickets is rising steadily. If you can make it, if only for last orders, give me a ring.
You are I’m afraid a bit of a hopeless case when it comes to bettong. You can however still get 5/6 on the SNP, which isn’t a whole lot less than evens. It’s still value, but maybe your time is better spent on the decorating.
Gluck auf.
42. Ted, I can’t possible comment. My lawyers advised me not to do so.
I also deny that I’m mounting a campaign to transfer Pendle in Scotland
Re 32, Witan there are links to the petition and response on my blog, though I did fisk the response
Re 33, Innocent, firstly this was a huge blunder not a small one, secondly ministers used to resign if they made this sort of cockup with out being asked to.
Re 40, Andrea, “Rumours are that I’m actually a SSP mole among the tories. Right?” surely taht should be left?
48. Benedict, left and right don’t mean anything anymore. Everything is left and everything is right
Re 48, Andrea, but surely as an SSP mole you are more left that right?
If SeanT is still looking for a book title… some ideas here:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/entertainment/6553497.stm
After so often saying no to Mike’s headline question this time I have to say yes….kind of.
I don’t think that pure support for the SNP is as far ahead of Labour as some polls have suggested but I’m wondering how much of a Labour stay at home effect we could have on the day.
No idea if the Tories are understated or not. Modest growth is almost certain in May in Scotland for them but I have no idea if they will outperform the poll ratings.
I’d be interested in asking what people think will happen if the SNP get into power, get a referendum on independence, throw all their weight behind it, and then lose. Surely that would massively undermine them, but voters would still be too sick of Labour to return? I’m tempted to say the Lib Dems would benefit, but they’ll be tainted by Labour’s record in the SP, but not by its national record. Could a few middle class votes start going Conservative?
AHH Andrea - a secret SSP mole eh! i always though that when i worked there lol. hope all is going well. feeling quite optimistic we’ll do ok this time - AG is havig a good campaign. will just need to hope the nats are indeed overstated again.
Max there are other wards like this i would think in south ayrshire and D&G - Troon might have been one i think but not sure. i see peter duncan is standing for D&G Council which is a good move pre the next General Election for building a vote in and around castle douglas - can do no harm certainly. ive always thought MP cnadidates should do this but some probably consider being a Councillor beneath them! disappointed at only 1 tory candidate in kirriemuir and dean on angus council as we may have got 2 their last time.
OT, but hooray, my copy of Mike Smithson’s book arrived this morning.
(on yesterday thread someone asked for councils without any candidates from 1 of the main major party…other than those already mentioned yesterday, Ribble Valley seems not to have any Labour candidate too)
51 All the Scottish polls including Yougov and ICM are consistently saying the Conservatives are going to do worse in Scotland than they did in 2003 .
BTW, My take on Brown on celebrity is on my blog, you will all no dount be surprised to hear! Which is here:
http://aconservatives.blogspot.com/
Re 56, Mark, Really?
I wonder why we are on the up in Wales and down in Scotland?
re 54. That’s great. I have not seen my copy yet. A batch was sent via a parcel company yesterday which, of course, does not deliver on Saturdays.
57 Because the SNP are stronger than Plaid , Scottish LibDems are stronger than Welsh LibDems and there have been numerous gaffes in the Scottish campaign including saying they may support Labour in a hung parliament situation .
56. I doubt they’ll contract in reality, though we wait to see.
What happened to the WA poll penddu said was imminent on Thursday . My guess is that it was a Plaid/Beaufort private poll and the results were not good for Plaid hence the nonrelease of the figures .
O/T and someone may have posted this elsewhere but I swore that I heard on the radio this morning that Bayrou has said no to a pact of some kind with Royal.
Can someone confirm that?
62. Mark, I think it was. I read on WalesElects blog that Vaughan Roderick mentioned a new poll coming up and the next day it says it was a Beaufort poll. Roderick columns are in Welsh, so I can’t check!
63 I really think you need to learn Welsh , Andrea , so a bit less posting on here whilst you study it .
65
Fi ll brofi a ddysg Cymraeg
Can some one remind me what the tips are for the national? I know about Joes edge but which others have a chance?
[46] Yes, ministers did resign in such circumstances, a long time ago. Carrington resigned for having failed to prevent the Falklands war: before that I think you have to go back to the 1950s.
The “size” of the blunder is, as almost always, a matter for dispute. I suspect I might, possibly for the first and last time in our lives, speak for Sean T. as well as myself when I say that if no one is going to resign for having got us into this Mesopotamian mess in the first place, to expect a resignation on the “sailors’ tale” issue is disproportionate.
66 Your keyboard seems to be playing up Andrea
re 59, Mark Many thanks. Are you campaigning down your way this year BTW?
Don’t you think pom pom girls for Hazel at the hustings would be a fantastic idea?
http://www.salfordadvertiser.co.uk/news/s/226/226420_deputy_cheerleaders.html
67 Benedict
I’m happy with my Joe’s Edge voucher. Point Barrow is an obvious alternative. Others at a decent price are - McKelvie, Eurotrek and Bewleys Berry.
Good luck!
Re 72, Many thanks Peter, but for a laugh I already have Joes edge at 9-1, Point Barrow and hedge Hunter at 10-1 and Graphic Approach at 100-1 (for a bigger laugh).
All are each way.
In an ideal world I would get a 1-2-3 of GA, PB and HH (the last two interchange able), but I think if any come in the top three I should be happy!
What a day for campaigning. Back for lunch with a sun tan already!
How badly do we think Scotland would have to go for Miliband to throw his hat in to the contest?
New pro-Miliband Blog:
http://www.thereisanalternative.wordpress.com
[/shameless plug]
Excellent analysis again Mike. First post.
Would say consensus here seems right. ICM and Yougov probably have it very close to the actual result. SNP may get slightly less, whether Labour will benefit less likely. Labour does seem very unpopular in Scotland and a shy Labour voter seems unlikely.
Could the betting market be wrong in making the SNP such a strong favourite. An SNP landslide is not as likely for the simple reason that huge swings like that happen rarely rather than often. Yes, I think it will be much closer. So who actually wins more seats is a toss-up.
Re 74, Jonathan, how is it looking for Labour in Horsham? Do you have any seats?
My copy of Mike’s book arrived this morning - and very impressive it is too! It is a good compendium of useful information, and it also has some fascinating titbis hidden away. For example, I now know what the “IG” stands for in “IG Index”. I could tell you, but it will spoil your enjoyment of the book - so go to page 47 for the answer.
News of a Scottish Jacobite Party revival that could overturn all those assumptions on the SNP (hope Jack W is aware of this)
http://www.stornowaygazette.co.uk/news?ArticleID=2230016
Quiet here isn’t it? You could always pop over to my blog here:
http://aconservatives.blogspot.com/
I’ve been told some interesting things from a contact who has worked in the Scottish media a long time and who has won the odd wad from political betting.
Some general observations are: The polling companies get the figures badly wrong for smaller parties.
The Greens may well win a seat on each of the regions plus possibly a second in one. Scottish voice will have a higher vote than anyone reckons. There will be a large number of independents and Margo will increase her share of the vote by a lot. As for the SNP, we nationalists tend to wear our hearts on our sleeves and so our vote gets exaggerated. (my own take is that this exaggeration will be tempered this time as many SNP voters may not be usual SNP voters. Labour’s vote usually gets exaggerated too although that may well be tempered by unpopularity. For the win, it looks like SNP but with a small seat lead over Labour as the polls suggest. The big story is going to be at the bottom end of the food chain and that may alter the look of the coalition…
2 So NuLab gave the Scots the devolution they wanted. Did you point out to them that their MPs could continue to vote on English affairs after devolution. Why has NuLab not solved the WLQ? …. because NuLab despise England and the English.
You are probably right that the Scots wont give the SNP a working majority but Scottish Labour may never again dominate Scotland. If I were a Scots Tory or Scots Lib I would vote SNP to kick Lab in the teeth.
O/T
Why does Her Majesty’s Opposition not wipe the floor with Labour over the National Health Service?
NHS: Spreading infection to save 0.275p
Have you ever stayed in a cheap hotel and thought that the sheets
didn’t seem
quite as fresh and clean as you might hope? Well, under the great
leadership of
Mad Pat, you might get the same feeling in hospital.
The Times reports today that cleaners at Good Hope Hospital in
Birmingham have
been ordered to top-and-tail used sheets instead of using clean ones,
to save
0.275p per sheet. Infection control clearly isn’t at the top of the
agenda.
The NHS is crumbling. Florence Nightingale provided clean bedding for
every
patient over a hundred-and-fifty years ago. Yet, in the 21st century,
the NHS
can’t afford it. Patients are being put at unacceptable risks to fund
NHS
managers and bureaucracy, yet news programmes are more interested in
the love
life of a 24 year old socialite.
re 52. I think it was the Indy this week that had a piece saying that many of the SNP’s supporters are ex-Tories because they see it the only way of getting Labour out.
53 - Not sure about D&G (there seem to be a lot of candidates in all wards) but you’re right about South Ayrshire where we’re guaranteed three seats (Troon, Prestwick and Ayr West).
Any last minute tips on the Grand National?
9. I really do think that Mr Brown will be the fag part of Labour in power. He has even been to Washington for his first kissing of the presidential posterior!
Andrea: yr gwladwriaethol heddlu sydd rhag celwyddog gwerin bodd anfon Mark Senior ymorol chwi!
re 83. Good Hope the hospital which went from three stars to zero and the chief exec resigned because of fiddled figures - although all hospitals do it they just don’t get caught - basically you throw the patients off A&E as soon as they get to 3h50m - doesn’t matter where; you can even discharge them for them to come back in worse 30m later. Welcome to Patsy’s wacky world.
Morale amongst NHS staff is at rock bottom and it’s not just the doctors as latest polls show. Once the general public get to see their local hospital shutting becuase it can’t get the patients in via the loony choice process, and their sparkling new hospital shedding staff because it can’t afford the mortgage on it’s Brownite Enron financing deal they’ll soon get the message.
86 I stand or fall by Joe’s Edge, Will L.
Good luck, whatever you’re on.
Thanks Peter the Punter - read post above.
Two things.
Lots of stories in Scotland about lack of Labour activists (disillusioned) therefore lack of people on the ground to get the Labour vote out, so Labour vote could actually be smaller than the polls suggest.
The strategy of the SNP of postponing a referendum for several years allows ALL voters the pleasure of “giving me a kicking” as TB so eloquently put it, without committing themselves to voting for Independence in that referendum.
79 - yes, the Scottish Jacobite party is a real party:
http://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/regulatory-issues/regpoliticalparties.cfm?frmGB=1&frmPartyID=623&frmType=partydetail
I am sure JackW is aware - indeed, unlike others here, I didn’t manage to work out his identity during his recent absence… is he really John Black?!
No idea if they are standing any candidates this time though.
79 & 92
Their website:
http://jacobites.org/index.htm
Peter, where was joes edge?
Wow, 33/1 winner, as well. mind you with what 13 finishers those who sold at 25 will have done very well indeed.
94 A pretty atypical National, Benedict, apart from the Irish winner. Not too many will have got that one, so I don’t feel too bad.
And you’re right about the number of finishers. There was easy money there which might have covered your losing bets if you picked up on it.
94 Oh, and JE? He was never travelling. I guess the jockey pulled him up.
95 - Not really into the horses but put a little on Liberthine, I thought I was going to get a winner for a moment!
92. “Lots of stories in Scotland about lack of Labour activists (disillusioned) therefore lack of people on the ground to get the Labour vote out, so Labour vote could actually be smaller than the polls suggest”
That could hurt them in the marginals as they should have less activists than in safe seats in first place and the opposition should have a decent activist base.
In safish seats even if they’re less motivated, they should outnumber the rivals. However a further implication is that disillused activists can be less keen to move around and go to help somewhere else.
2 things I was wondering and I would like a confirmation or a rebuttal?
1) is SNP usually regarded as being good at getting their vote out?
2) do SNP usually go bad in postal vote?
Didnt see that coming at all.
The connections of the 2nd will be gutted. I dont think he was making up too much in the last 50 yards after looking like he was going to collar the winner though the camera angle was deceptive. That horse looked extremely fit indeed.
Big gamble on Monkerhostin went west very early. Must have been decent money to see his odds tumble so rapidly.
Thanks Peter for the number of finishers tip. I had a nice sell bet at 17.4 which covers my losses elsewhere.
re 99 so will my sister who had a tenner on him.
RE 95, had I taken your tip there I could have made £120 easily, instead I lost £18!
Still, that is betting!
Re 96, Peter, yes I noticed that, I had a bit more on Hedgehunter in the end which at least finished but for most of the race heard nor saw anything of Joes edge.
Is there a bookie willing to take bets on individual constituencies in Wales in May.
BTW Plaid were supposed to be producing another “Beaufort Poll”. Did they.
The Grand National reminds most of us why we only bet on racing once or twice a year, which is that it is a mug’s game particularly over fences.
I don’t mean to shock with the following figures. I will list them first and then explain how they were produced.
Expected Scottish Parliament GE07 Seats Distribution
SNP 30.0%
Lib Dems 21.6%
Cons. 20.3%
Labour 20.0% (Labour 4th place)
Remember these are seat distributions and not vote tallies. My poll of polls average of the last 5 polls gave the SNP a lead of only 4% (posted here last week Sunday). These figures seek to identify SEAT DISTRIBUTION which opinion polls do not accurately predict. They are based on taking the GE03 Scottish Parliament election result and adding the swing of the 2006/07 Total Aggregated Scottish Local Election % Swing. This has been a fairly accurate method of predicting the outcome of the election in the past.
Notice there has been massive tactical unwind for Labour. With tactical voting against Labour, Labour is now 7% UNDER-REPRESENTED in seats, rather than being 10% OVER-REPRESENTED, despite the existence of a hybrid PR system.
57. I would say two reasons. First Mark Senior is right about the strength of Scottish and Welsh Lib Dems. There has always been a middle class anti socialist vote in Wales. Normally Conservative, but from 1995-2003, the Conservatives were on their knees. As the Economist points out with PC on Labour’s left that leaves a space for the Welsh Conservarives in a way the SNP does not for Scottish Conservatives. Nevertheless, during that period there was a great opening for Welsh Lib Dems. They did not take it. They should really have gone all out to supplant the Conservatives in middle class and rural seats as the Labour alternative. In Norh Wales they are all but out of it. In only one Cardiff Central did they do so, which shows what might have been perhaps. With the Conservative horse have long since bolted they are targetting Wales’s three big cities, and working hard to break the Conservative vote in these places with the exception of Cardiff North, as a tactical means to oust Labour.
Second the Welsh Conservatives were perhaps Cameroon before Cameron. They ditched the by now poisonous Torch logo well before the national party, and adopted Wales’s national emblem as theirs in a clever move Steve Hilton would appreciate. That combined with the replacement of people like Rod Richards with Jonathan Morgan as their public face laid their foundations, as the pendulum swung back.
104. I would assume someone will price something up, at least for select constituencies at some point. No idea who though, no expert on the Welsh stuff.
re 106 that’s not possible and if you put your shirt on it you’ll lose it. The Scottish system is roughly proportional and Lab will win rought the same proportion of votes as they get in the regional votes bit of the poll.
re 106. I forgot to say that if you really want a bet that Labour will be in 4th place on the number of seats I’m happy (as I’m sure most people on here will be) to take it.
Sigh, if I’d picked no-hopers for the National then I wouldn’t have cared, but having listened to peter the punter talk up joe’s edge for the last two weeks, it was pretty disappointing. A good day to be a bookie I guess.
108. I’m looking for inexperienced English bookies who think Labour will hold Cardiff North or Llanelli.
111 Sorry tpfkar but he wasn’t the only fancied horse to blow out. In fact he seemed to be going pretty well until about the twelfth, when he made a mistake. After that, he was struggling. I suspect he may have injured himself but I’ll find out later and report back.
110 Chris A
That’s exactly what I thought - that under PR the results are supposed to be proportional. Only its not in Scotland. The Scottish system is actually a hybrid PR system, so it is less extreme then FPTP, but no were near as proportional as true PR. In 2003 Labour was over-represented in seats by 10% given what it got in votes at both regional list and constituency levels. As I mentioned above I am no less shocked by these figures than anyone else.
So I think it will be close despite these figures. They were only posted as a subject of interest. It will be interesting to see what happens. If you are betting I would strongly advise - ASSUME IT WILL BE CLOSE. An SNP landslide is probably something Scotland is not ready for yet.
112. Ah. I know from the NI Assembly elections that you’ll maybe be looking to locally run outfits. They still make mistakes though.
114. Am I mad or are you seriously predicting Labour will havefewer seats in the Scottish Parliament than the Scottish Conservatives.
116 - I assume he isn’t being serious. He doesn’t seem to have much of a grasp on whats going on North of the Border. Labour will lose nothing like that number of seats and I doubt the Tories or Lib Dems will end up with 20%+ of the 129 seats on offer.
Hi all- I am of course biased- as an SNP Council candidate but in terms of the SNP being over estimated in the polls as in 2003 I dont think so this time as the far left has fragmented so SSP/ Solidarity will, I think, return 1 msp- ironically I think it will be Tommy Sheridan in Glasgow- meaning there are 5 regional seats to go to others!The SNP never believed it could win in 2003, we had a lacklustre leader (who I have to admit has since been great for the party in terms of his finance role) and for the entire campaign we were no-where in the polls and the SSP/ Independents/ Greens were in the media spot light! 2003 was an election where the public wer scunnered with Labour AND the SNP and wanted a bit of variety, hence the small party triumphs in 2003! This time I hear on the door again and again that traditional new middle/ working class Labour voters who have ALWAYS backed the party are shifting directly to the SNP- our canvassing of undecided voters over the campaign has also seen a majority of undecided voters over to us! I think if anythin the Labour vote could be over estimated! I would add though that polls showing a 12% lead for the SNP maybe a bit optimistic but I think a 5-6% lead nationally will be where we end up!
54, 78 My Copy of Mike’s book has arrived. Just got home from a tiring day - what a tonic!
116 - think that outcome might just result in an anyone but Gordon shift in sentiment
If you look at the figures these just show that Labour, Lib Dems and Cons are all very close. That’s all. Probability of Labour vote collapsing, from Labour’s own canvass returns, has caused panic from Tony Blair himself.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article1652785.ece
Notice Gordon Brown has gone to meet Bush this weekend.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article1652763.ece
Does this mean Gordon Brown is not the left-winger we all assumed. Clearly someone has advised him that going into the centre will undo his left-wing image, and soften up the right of the Labour Party. Will it be enough to rescue his scandal-ridden campaign?
121. Very strange stuff again.
117. As the tories are unlikely to be over-represented at FPTP level in the great majority of regions, to get more seats than Labour they should outpoll them at list level and it seems unlikely
What assessment do those of you North of Hadrain’s wall make of the prospects of the various independents in the Scottish parliamentary elections?
117&118 I would love to know what Labour’s canvassing reports in Scotland even in their heartlands are telling them? Back in 97 after the election a lot of tories admitted that their reception on the doorsteps had led them to believe they would lose and lose big.
Re 107, Punter many thanks for that,
125- yes it would be great to know! In my parliamentary seat- Hamilton South- the Labour campaign is made up of Tom McCabe, the incumbant MSP, Executive Minister and Labour candidate, about 6 local Coucillors and 2 others that are not Cllrs! I heard today that the outgoing Provost of our Council (South Lanarkshire) who is taking the severance pay to stand down from the Council will be Tom McCabes election agent- a last minute chance as last Saturday it was somenone else! Labours leaflets all bear the name of the previous agent- I am sure there is a story there! Anyway I have heard from a mole in the Labour Party that in a central belt seat they won by 5% of the vote last time, their canvassing- in Labour’s stronger area of support- has them 9% behind! I detect a major swing from labour in their heartlands, but less so the further you are from the central, apart from the North- East, not really Labour heartland territory and where the SNP habe long been strong, the polling evidence for the SNP has been fantastic
124- I think Jean Turner in Strathkelvin will hold on only due to tactical voting!!
109 Chris A “The Scottish system is roughly proportional and Lab will win roughly the same proportion of votes as they get in the regional votes bit of the poll.”
It does seem to favour Labour in strong Labour areas though. Looking at the 2003 results
Glasgow Labour seats 10/17 (59%) Regnl vote 41%
Central Labour seats 9/16 (57%) Regnl vote 42%
W Scot Labour seats 8/15 (53%) Regnl vote 35%
Lothian Labour seats 6/16 (37%) Regnl vote 26%
When Labour sweep the FPTP seats, even if they get no list seats (as in the above 4 examples) it doesn’t fully correct.
As someone who lumped onto the 5/4 odds on the SNP this concerns me somewhat
129. I think Margo McDonald is tipped to be returned in the Lothians too
130 - I think she’ll get in fairly easily Andrea.
125 - Chris I spoke to a (Labour supporting) friend in Stirling who said there canvass returns were not good. I saw a couple of days ago someone on ConHome saying that they had removed a council candidate fairly late on which may indicate a drop in support.
81 - I don’t think that’s actually true the polls got the Green share of the vote fairly accurate last time and if anything they overstated the SSP’s support.
128. HamiltonNat ” detect a major swing from labour in their heartlands, but less so the further you are from the central, apart from the North- East, not really Labour heartland territory and where the SNP habe long been strong, the polling evidence for the SNP has been fantastic ”
I suppose that it’s likely Labour will lose all their FPTP seats in North East Scotland. Their 2 list MSPs there are safe and maybe they can hope to get a third list seat ending with just -1 in that region (but the third list seat is just a possibility)
One intesting thing to see are seats where Labour is defending the same numerical majority but with a different level of 2003 SSP support. If 2003 SSP support is going to SNP, a 15% majority with SSP at 10%+ or a 15% majority with SNP at 5% can be different for the outcome
Please can someone twist the bookies’ arms so we can get some constituency markets for Scotland and Wales??
132. Max. what are your expectations for Lothians list seats?
I would say that parties are in following range (assuming McDonald holds her seat and Colin Fox loses his one):
Lab 0-1 (1 if their list vote holds up well, but they end up losing EdCentral, Linlithgow and Livingston)
Con 1-2
SNP 2-4 (4 seems an unlikely scenario, they should go up 10% but missing Livingston)
LD 0 (I can’t see them getting a list seat, especially since they can gain Ed Central)
Greens 1-2
what do you think?
134 - Looks about right to me Andrea. Definatley can’t see Colin Fox hanging on.
Any feedback on the Chancellor market. Straw favourite correct?
Straw’s around the 2/1 mark which is about right.
Henry 137 - do you think that Miliband will keep Gordon on as Chancellor?
Anecdotal chatter department, no claims to scientific precision: I’ve been comparing notes with two other Nottingham area Labour MPs - we’re all encountering the same pattern of virtually no swing since the same people were canvassed four years ago. I’ve reported that before; a new development is that Labour certainty to vote seems to be rising, mainly in reaction to the “Tories gallopping ahead” reports. Whether that’s true in other areas (or indeed whether we’re deluding ourselves) I don’t know, but nerves round here are pretty steady. We have a sprinkling of new Green candidates who are getting a bit of interest, though this seems to be hurting the LDs more than us. The BNP are leafeting busily - always difficult to judge what if any impact they’re having as their supporters tend not to admit it.
138. Working on the assumption that David will stand and win (which I think is odds against on both counts) I’d imagine he would offer him it. But would Brown accept it - I don’t think he would actually. I think Darling as Chancellor would work - a conciliatory offer to a Brownite and having a Scottish Chancellor under an English PM isn’t a political impediment than under a Scottish PM.
So Peter the Punter, are you with me and Guido in the dark corner on Tuesday?
Interesting day out to Ayr and back today. Husband not too pleased I diverted him through various constituencies. You could tell when one constituency started and ended as the posters on the lamp-posts changed. A lot of SNP activity in Kilmarock, about 20 members all in snappy SNP T-shirts handing out leaflets and balloons in the Town Centre. I spoke to a couple and they said are very encouraged by their canvassing figures. only one window poster in Ayr in a house (SNP). It’s vote ‘re-elect Tommy Sheridan’ with Solidarity in small print in the Glasgow area. Bellshill must have the most SNP posters concentrated in a small area every lamp-post seems to have one. Labour posters in Airdie - didn’t see one poster in that seat for any other party. The Christian Party has a lot of posters attached to lamp-post in the Glasgow Area along with the Greens. As we all know posters don’t vote. Surprised that I did not see one Tory or Lib Dem poster at all today.
“Surprised that I did not see one Tory or Lib Dem poster at all today. ”
In Guildford there’s nothing else!
139.”we’re all encountering the same pattern of virtually no swing since the same people were canvassed four years ago.”
Nick, are you not a bit surprised at that considering the drop in Labour support in the monthly polls and this is the middle of a third term Labour government?
The only reason I have query this is because even in Scotland there is a marked change in mood with the voters, and I can’t believe that it has passed your area by completely.
142. Posters should not be on lamp posts.
It is fly posting.
Must be that the Conservatives and LibDems are better behaved than Labour or the SNP.
143. Paul, it is a sad sad state of affairs when your only choice is Labour or the SNP. Thankfully both of these parties seem confined to Scotland these days…
Re 145, DDC, who knows what the rules are in Scotland?
BTW, email me. (please)
139 - so you’ll be giving no truck to any thoughts of the Labour high command setting the bar too low then…
145.”The only reason I have query this is because even in Scotland there is a marked change in mood with the voters, and I can’t believe that it has passed your area by completely. ”
Chris, there’s always been areas that seem to go against the trend (for ex last year in London Labour had a pretty solid performance in Hackney and Islington whilst it was a carnage for them in next door Camden, Haringey and Brent).
Here in the East End of Glasgow - where they traditionally weigh rather than count the Labour vote - SNP activists have climbed many false summits and witnessed many false dawns over the years/decades. We generally expect that when the polls go our way early in the campaign they will take an apparent downturn (whether genuine or somehow manufactured) before the big day.
However on the stumps things are looking more positive than usual this time around. Knocking on doors putting out survey sheets we get a high rate of return and of these at least 50% support us. At our Saturday streetwork in the local shopping centre we get people of all ages crowding round our table to sign the petition, put money in the can, and generally wish us well.
It’s likely, therefore, that the SNP have won the argument amongst the folk who take an interest in politics.
However there is a swathe of people out there who don’t read political leaflets, don’t read about politics in the paper or watch political programmes, are - crucially - unlikely to agree to participate in political surveys (and so are under-represented in surveys) but who turn out every election to vote Labour because that’s what they’ve always done.
This time around Labour will have to rely on this unthinking tribal vote more than ever before. Only time will tell if there are still enough of them to carry the day.
Round the doors you get the impression that the disillusion has seeped through even to some of them so that they will stay at home (although they will not commit the blasphemy of voting for another party). They are the people who give the stock answer: “Uch politicians are aw the same. They’re no worth votin fur.”
145 - it depends on which local authority you are in. North Lanarkshire and Glasgow appear to be very tolerant. Not allowed in the Tayside area.
144: Yes, Chris, frankly, I’m deeply suspicious of the canvass results - but they’ve been consistent for a couple of months now, and I’m comparing like with like (often the same people who I’ve personally canvassed before). My explanation up to now was that the worm in the bud is going to be differential turnout, but my current impression is that this is becoming less of a factor. An alternative is that Nottingham is for some reason diverging from the trend (I do think Scotland’s by-elections have suggested a stronger anti-Labour trend there), or simply that we’re getting a series of misleading samples. Dunno.
139 - Nick P - that is surprising. Here in Reading (East) we are seeing approx a 5% increase in our share of the vote in our target wards, which is consistent with the change in the national polls. In one or two wards we are doing even better.
I do agree however that a lot depends on the resilience of the