Has Gordon decided that it’s better to have a contest?
April 16th, 2007
Is Brown-Miliband contest looking more likely?
Over the past month all the indications from the Gordon Brown camp suggested that they were totally opposed to a contested election for the Labour leadership and everything was being designed to give the Chancellor his coronation.
We had Margaret Beckett and Peter Hain making statements suggesting it was almost being anti-Labour for anybody to consider fighting against Gordon. There was also the reported plan of Brown’s campaign manager, Jack Straw, to close down options for other possible challenges by orchestrating huge numbers of Brown supporting MPs to make their declarations for him in the immediate aftermath of the process being started.
Now we have Gordon’s comments yesterday reported above seeming to indicate that they really want his succession to the top job to have been as a result of a proper contest.
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My guess is that Brown would still prefer to have a coronation but he and his team have decided to bow to the inevitable pressure and at least appear to be wanting a proper fight. It would have been very damaging for a contested election to be seen to be foisted on him.
This surely is the right strategy for I’m convinced that a large part of the anti-Brown media campaign that has been gathering momentum has been in response to statements like Margaret Beckett’s “warning to Miliband”.
There’s a new element as well this morning - an article in the Telegraph by Irwin Stelzer, who is said to be a close advisor to Rupert Murdoch - in which he talks favourably of David Miliband.
One thing we cannot rule out is that other potential challengers could put themselves forward. For if Miliiband did stand and was beaten he could then be seen as the heir presumptive thus blocking other career minded Labour politicians.
Last night one of our regular contributors who is usually well informed on Labour matters, HenryG, posted this: “About a week ago I thought that David Miliband wouldn’t stand for the leadership. The other day I thought he was odds against to stand. Now I’m now pretty convinced he IS going to stand for leader and that the Guardian in particular will be upping their calls for him to do so after the May election results…I’m not going to say anymore than that - for those that like nice and tidy attributed sources with weblinks they can choose to disregard this if they like. But for those that think I’m more right than wrong on these matters, you may want to adjust some of your positions accordingly… So, I’d make the odds on Miliband standing 1/5. The chances of him winning 3/1 - making him about a 7/2 shot. I can’t bring myself to back him in these circumstances, but I’m sure there’s money to be made buying and laying off if nothing else.”
There’s been no real change in the betting with Gordon still at 0.28/1 and Miliband trading at about 6/1.
Mike Smithson
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Erm, how carefully did you read the Stelzer article?
“This crowd, willing to hold Miliband’s coat in any battle with Brown, and if he loses go on with their own careers …”
“Professor Mark Roodhouse of York University, who believes that carbon rationing can accomplish what clothes and food rationing did during the Blitz: create a sense of social solidarity …”
Professor Roodhouse knows that rationing not only led to the black market but made it nigh on imperative for ordinary and previously law-abiding people to participate in that black market. Crime never looked back. Telegraph readers will know this too, of course.
“never comfortable with the politics of post-war affluence — the opportunity to return to the politics of austerity”
Surely Stelzer is warning Miliband off.
It looks like Gordon’s team finally realised that he won’t actually be able to stop anyone standing if they really want to. What they do have the power to do is stop looking like they’re scared of a fight or a debate. An earlier article by Mike said that the danger of frontrunners is that they seem to treat the election as their right. Perhaps this is Gordon’s way of showing some humility.
Not sure if he’s succeeding or not.
I agree with post 2.
I am coming round to the idea there will be a challenge as Clarke will do it. whatever, what matters are the locals
I agree with post 2.
I am coming round to the idea there will be a challenge as Clarke will do it. whatever, what matters are the locals
When asked in his Guardian interview at the weekend whether Miliband should run, Gordon was reported to have said “that’s up to him”. He might (should) have concluded that this sounds rather sulky or grudging and it would have been better to say something like “by all means, I welcome a contest.” In correcting the previous comment, he sounds more confident and statesmanlike (and makes potential challengers more nervous.)
Gordon Brown won’t have a mandate from the British people, assuming, of-course, that he does suceed Tony Blair as leader, surely then it is imperative that he is seen, at the very least, to have the support of the parliamentary labour party.
The difference methinks between this situation and John Major(who likewise initially had no mandate),was that Major did have the blessing of his predecessor Mrs Thatcher, which was a huge advantage at the time… Brown certainly won’t have Blair’s blessing, which is a recipe for political infighting should he win a non contest. Its not going to be a smooth ride whatever happens, even if Miliband stands and wins.
Whether Gordon’s decided that it’s better to have a contest or not, it seems as if he’s accepted that there probably will be one, in one way, shape or form. If Miliband doesn’t stand, it’s highly unlikely that no-one else will get the nominations and Scott and Test accurately note, acknowledging that candidates can’t take anything for granted won’t do Brown any harm.
I was at a teacher’s conference over the Easter holidays and spoke to a few people there who are active or have close links with the Labour Party at member-level. I did get the impression of there being some support for Miliband, but I still can’t see the public at large taking to him. Under greater media pressure, he’ll perform badly if his efforts so far are representative - and there’s no reason to believe they’re not. The MPs ought to know this already; those party and union members who don’t will find it out if he declares his candidacy.
The quote from HenryG is pretty dramatic in his assessment of how the odds have moved - at least moderate odds against to 1/5 within a week? There’s atill a month or so to go to Blair sounding the starting gun.
I won’t go over previous ground, but I assume GB’s camp shares my view that he’ll win any contest easily, and can see advantages in a civilly-conducted campaign (which Miliband certainly would provide). For the record, since I said in public that I’d consider signing alternative nomination papers to get a contest, I’ve not come under pressure either to do it or not do it.
John O: I replied to you about the proposed bet late on last night’s thread - the terms are not quite what you thought because of the peculiarity of Broxtowe constituency boundaries. Harry Hayfield has taken me up on it, but I don’t mind having the same bet with you if you like?
Totally O/T: when I was on hoiday in Scandinavia last week, I picked up a story about Peter Brixtofte, whom I went to school with. He was a charismatic, almost Kennedyesque, Liberal politician even at school, and a pleasant guy but clearly intensely ambitious. He rapidly became a local council leader and was seen as a possible future PM, especially as he ran the council with notable success. His downfall came when the council organised a celebration of a big new local marina, and he ordered £10,000 worth of expensive wine (£400/bottle) for the top tables at local taxpayers’ expense.
That would have caused a huge row in any country, but in Britain I think it would at most have electoral consequences, and I’m not sure the electorate wouldn’t just wearily shrug their shoulders - they think we’re all like that. Not so in Denmark - he’s just been sentenced to four years in prison for misuse of public funds and related charges.
I’m not drawing any particular conclusions (let’s resist the boring temptation to finger-point at each other - every party has had a few councillors over the years who did things like this) - just thought it was interesting.
BTW, note TB’s comment yesterday that he’s in the final weeks of his premiership - as the “he’s got a cunning plan to stay on” theory has been aired here from time to time, it’s worth noting that this finally buries the Q4+ speculation.
9 - O/T Nick - thanks for your confirmation last night of my Broxtowe nuffinkness, but I’ll stay with the wager: Beeston Central (assuming that IS in the constituency) looks potentially tasty. And since we obtained our two moggies from the Cat Protection League yonks ago, I could just about bear defeat….)
see Labour’s plan…
A million immigrants can vote next month
But Miliband is getting all the publicity he needs for “Next Time” by not standing but allowing stories still to circulate. Why stand and ruin everything by failing?
re 11. So cats are going to be deprived if Labour lose? Be careful John.
12 It was the imperial Conservatives actually. I’d imagine it’s been close to a million British subjects and Irish citizens in many elections probably more in the mid twentieth century. Stupid scare statistic that undermines migrationwatch’s attempts to be taken seriously as an independent think tank.
Of course if law was changed we would have never had Patricia Hewitt.
13. Icarus - why does DM “lose everything” by standing? Surely it puts him in a better position for next time?
GB is going to have enough PR challenges when he takes over and the last thing he would want to do is appear is spiteful to someone who contested the election.
15. Not sure, it is the Conservative’s open door immigration policy.
I’m sure Labour is in power and has had absolute majority for 10 years.
Remember any policies of a previous government are the policies of the current government, if not changed
Besides, it is not the issue. The issue is how this will affect election results.
Although it is interesting if it was planned and open door immigration was part of a strategy
14 -
There must be a McCavity joke here somewhere!
11: Beeston Central certainly is in the constituency. I’ll put out a leaflet at once: “Vote Labour and save Britain’s cats!”
You think I’m kidding? A local LibDem councillor believes that cats are a menace to society and favours mass slaughter. Purely in the spirit of fun, I suggested that it should be compulsory for every household to have three. He took me seriously and was very angry indeed. Yes, I can see a campaign developing here… challenge him to a debate… offer a free moggie to every new party member… add a new Claws Four to the constitution…
Re 19 I think you would win this election by just a whisker!
How I wish that getting rid of cats (and dogs) was official party policy. My garden is infested with other peoples moggies. And Jody Dunn might support me on dogs…
If we got rid of them all surely it would help solve global warming.
21 Being fond of birds visiting my garden I have to admit my wife and I are founder members of the Cat Annihilation Society and I do symrathise. I would be very pleased in the interests of Bio-diversity if legislation was introduced making it compulsory for all cats to wear bells round their necks.
Well, I thought I was the first Peebie to mention the “reversion” factor in a Miliband candidacy, but, hey, Our Genial Host’s a journo at heart, he’s bound to nick good ideas and pass them off as his own :lol:. One aspect of it that hasn’t been mentioned is who will nominate who* - I would expect pretty much the whole PLP to nominate somebody. (I’m thinking of young Benn particularly here.) I also think that if there is to be a contest McDonnell is more likely to get the requisite number (44 or 45 - there seems to be some confusion, no doubt I’ll be enlightened).
And what is it about cats that makes otherwise intelligent and even hard-bitten people go all over gooey? Nick P, John O and everyone in my family…
***
*I think that’s the right grammar (plural case) - no doubt I’ll be put right if needs be.
[21][23] There you are, PtP - how to tell Icarus and me apart. He’s the one who hates cats…
A contest between yesterday’s man and tomorrow’s man, when the old dog is a big favourite. If the experienced man wins his last and biggest fight, he’s made stronger by the work-out?
Re 21 I also used to be a dog owner and the animal in question was indeed a major contributor to the poor air quality in my sitting room!
O/T France - Final week before the first round
TNS-SOfres for “Le Figaro”
sarkozy 30 royal 26.00 le pen 12 bayrou 17
2nd round royal/sarkozy 52/48
Update of my poll of polls
sarkozy 28.33 royal 24.33 bayrou 18.25 le pen 13.75
The order of the candidates seems pretty settled… but past errors of pollsters still give some uncertainty.
Sarkozy seems sure to be in the second round but needs to maintain a high score and to lead the poll on sunday night to keep momentum.
The ideal situation for him would be a 5%+ lead over Royal and a weakened bayrou, ideally behind le pen. It would enable Sarkozy to have the upper hand in between-rounds (secret or not)negotiations.
Royal is in a trickier situation : she needs to scare the far-left voters into supporting her, without seeming a hopeless cause to prevent more centre-left voters switching to bayrou. Carefully crafted rumors are doing the rounds on the internet to announce a le pen/sarkozy second round to energize left-wing voters, while she tries to maintain a potential winner’s attitude (yesterday she told journalists that they underestimated the “worldwide impact” of her election…). Her ideal result is a qualification to the second round just behind sarkozy (or even in front, but it seems very unlikely) with a neat margin over a 3rd placed bayrou.
Bayrou will try the whole week to repeat one message only : i’m the only one to vote for if you want to avoid Sarkozy + not too subtle promises of alliance with the left. This is the only way he can beat royal but it begins to annoy his centre-right voters (pure anecdotical findings: this week-end three right-wing bayrou voters told me they would switch back to sarkozy if bayrou chose an open alliance with the socialists).
Le Pen has a very simple axis of campaign : criticize Sarkozy to try to get back some of his former voters.Any kind of violent crime linked (even weakly) to immigrants would also instantly give him a higher score. My (very unscientific and personal) feeling is that he could still overtake bayrou this week, but not royal (bar a new catastrophe in Ms Royal’s campaign which is not impossible by any means).
The final days will be interesting…
A question to Mike S : would it be possible to organize a small prediction competition concerning the scores of the 4 big candidates? (no prize needed, just for fun) I agree to be the judge (and Excel data-cruncher) if you want.
The new pro-Miliband candidacy site mentioned in the Telegraph Article itself - ‘There Is An Alternative’ - can be found here:
http://www.thereisanalternative.wordpress.com
11.”thanks for your confirmation last night of my Broxtowe nuffinkness, but I’ll stay with the wager: Beeston Central (assuming that IS in the constituency) looks potentially tasty”
I think the election in Beeston Central has been delayed because Labour sitting councillor died after he has already been delayed until June 7th (I read it on another forum. Nick, can you confirm?)
If so, Labour can’t lose a seat there in May
Stelzer is having a bad day - not only does he get Prime Minister of Canada wrong (now corrected from Hayes to Harper in the article) he also calls Shakespeare a ‘wily politician’ - or by proxy, Brutus. Whole thing rather rushed - and poorly subbed. Meanwhile, Hilary Benn talking sense on ‘War on Terror’ - at last! If we get more of this from Broon post Blair, there may be hope yet.
30. It’s a hard life being a glove puppet.
re 27. A good idea. I’ll ask Paul Maggs who usually does our competitions.
Is it any wonder Labour are losing the plot when their so-called ‘think tanks’ come up with naive authoritarian rubbish like this…
‘Raise drinking age to 21′
http://news.independent.co.uk/uk/health_medical/article2452410.ece
A passable impersonation of the roundhead Commonwealth/Protectorate is taking shape here…what next one wonders? Banning mince pies and theatres?
Hills have now reeopened the Deputy Leadership Market according to Oddschecker but nothing yet on the main event.
No Gordon hasn’t but there is likely to be one coming so what’s he going to do? Say he’s unhappy?
This is advance positioning by saying that he welcomes a contest.
re 10. which he no doubt said in all good faith fully believing it to be true at the time he said it. It’s touching, I suppose, that there are still people who can believe what TB says at face value.
What’s the consensus view on whether Swiss Toni will be made to walk the plank for the Navygate fiasco? I’m guessing he’ll hang on as his is a more low key, less stridently offensive style of incompetence.
37. We need Roger to give us a clue on this one, the way he so admirably did with Blunkett et al.
I think Gordon would actually welcome a contest at this stage - and in my view a good (but comradely!) debate on future policy would be good for the party. Hopefully Charles Clarke will stand - only for him to be humiliated.
One way Gordon could “cut the ties of the past” so to speak. He could make a fulsome and public apology for the Iraq war, its implementation and the aftermath. He could say, yes, I believed the intelligence on WMD (as did most of the western world) and yes, I voted for the war. However, we have not had the outcome we would have liked etc etc and I now propose a timetable for full and total withdrawl from Iraq by March 2008. I shall launch a full public enquiry into the war in April 2008 (reporting September 2008 - get it over quick smart).
The last bit is less likely, but it would be a right good kick in the face for Tony (i.e. “told you you should have gone sooner”) and a total break with Iraq in the minds of the electorate. The Tories could not crow as they were even more pro-war under IDS. The LibDems may shout a bit, but their reaction would be swallowed whole by the sensation this would cause.
Any chances of this happening? Not really - although I anticipate a change of emphasis from GB on foreign policy.
Mike, your article has it about right. Gordon still does not want a serious challenge, he is just saying that he welcomes one to get people off his back.
His people will still be working in the background to make sure there is not one though.
40 Jon Reid may have a pop, you never know. If only Robin Cook were still alive.
Sky News’ Naill Paterson (sp?) was floating the possibility of a Hutton candidacy again on their Sunday bulletins. It’s been a while since he was spoken of as a possible. Contrasted with Miliband (or Cameron for that matter), his senior government experience doesn’t look so thin.
Re 9, Nick Palmer, if only our Law and order behaved like that, then perhaps people would have more confidence in politicians.
Mind you Yates is doing his bit. (Papers to CPS in next 10 days).
Re 19, Nick Palmer, sometimes people take them selves too seriously! It appears that LD is one
So how do you answer the charge I made last night that you discriminate against dogs?
43. Yates is a disgrace. How long has this thing dragged on for? Either level charges or shove off.
Re 45, Redflump, No New Labour is a disgrace, not answering questions and giving the police the run around.
The fact is this is a sensitive inqiry and takes time.
45. I think the excellent Yates has quite properly timed the conclusion of his investigations to have maximum political impact. Labour are now paying the price for their PC bullying of the police in the past.
47. Do you think it is right for the police to time their investigations to “get their own back”? I have thought this was the case for a while, but if Labour were to say anything they would be drown out by the “ooh, you are guilty and can’t take the truth” stirrers.
PC bullyinmg? Good god, the police needed a shakeup and still does (remember The Secret Policeman?) Racism is still rife in the Met.
33 Digby If I remember rightly the Interregnum of the Puritan Commonwealth which ignored so many traditional values and attempted to force radical religious, moral and political change on the British Isles, became more and more authoritarian as time went on.
It collapsed shortly after its progenitor disappeared from the scene and his apprentice took over. The Commonwealth didn’t last long after that and the whole mess was removed by an English Puritan General leading his Scottish troops south as a guard for the new regime to take its rightful place.
48. Actually, you knwo what, yes. Thats what governments do, thats what politicians do, why shouldnt their employees?
Re 49, Yes Witan, we can live in hope.
48 RedFlump Please be careful, you are tending to default to the Labour norm charging ‘racism’ when stumped for an effective argument.
52 Your arguments are usually so much better than that. Quite effective often.
52. No Witan - I was merely replying to PC Copper that the force needed a shakeup and I used racism as an example. For the police to act in a political way is appaling - and all Tories who cheer them on now need to be careful - they’ll do it to you as well.
54. Not that I necessarily think they ARE acting in an political way, but this investigation does seem to be timed at the worst possible moment for Labour. What is Yates doing?
54 I agree that the police need a shake up. That is Cameron’s policy too, isn’t it?
48. That blustering response, complete with the usual Nu Labour smears, underlines the crucial importance of Yates’ work. Nothing less than long prison sentences for Blair and his closest aides will restore faith in the political system, and Yates is the man to deliver this cleansing of the Augean Stables…
Re 54, Redflump, police acting in a political way? What you mean like taking to the airwaves in support of government anti terror legislation?
58. I mean by timing a supposedly criminal investigation to purposely damage the government. That is wrong, surely you can see that? The government is elected - who the hell is this Yates creature?
Anyway, off topic, was in Cardiff Bay on Saturday (which was hot and heaving) and was amused to see a couple of UKIP people handing out leaflets. Why do they bother? they come across as the epitome of little englishness, so they have no chance in Wales.
Back to Main Thread (and I’ll deal with the miserable moggies later.)
That was quite a bombshell from Henry G last night. This is no Herbert, proper or otherwise, chatting with ‘a mate in the Foreign and Commonwealth Office’. It’s becoming increasingly apparent that a real contest is likely in which case Miliband is a probable runner. I still cannot for the life of me see him winning but the odds much now be much nearer the 7/2 Henry suggests, rather than the double digit number I and several others formerly had in mind.
I’ve halved my exposure and taken out insurance on Miliband at 6/1 (Corals) and one or two less likely candidates (Reid,Denham etc).
Looks a livelier market now, with plenty of backing and laying opportunities coming up.
Thanks Henry. Quick off the mark, as usual.
56,
They have some clout the Police even under a fairly strong Conservative government.
Kenneth Clarke was stymied by them regarding the Sheehey report which definatley wanted implementing.
The police are the last bastion of a over nationalised public industry, with outdated working practices, going back years.
Watching leading politicians always saying “we want more bobbies on the beat” is sickmaking in the extreme, its just platitudes.
Everyone knows most police personnel don`t want to walk around town with a big hat on.
They join with university degrees to do intelligence led policing.
If you want extra patrols for reassurance employ the right staff, with the correct powers.
Before we go any further, bear in mind that the cops can’t necessarily time this too much. It has to go to the CPS who can sit on it until after the elections which is the key time.
Secondly, with Tony going, so what, he’s going. He can can just coast out 6-7 weeks as the proverbial lame duck if anything proposed by the CPS looks bad for him by association. If they wanted primarily to damage to No.10 they would have had final files to the CPS before now.
Thirdly, no one said the CPS would go ahead.
Finally, maybe the cops are just doing a difficult job to the best of their ability and because its a potentially explosive investigation are being very careful. In short you don’t kick a suspected bomb.
59 - “When the President does it, that means that it is not illegal. ”
David Frost-Richard Nixon interview, 1977
When you’re in a hole…..
Re 59, redflump, “I mean by timing a supposedly criminal investigation to purposely damage the government. That is wrong, surely you can see that? The government is elected - who the hell is this Yates creature?”
So the police are allowed to get involved in politics for the government but not against?
Either both are wrong or neither is.
For the record I don’t think Yates has delayed his investigation to coincide with these elections, I think some of those investigated have done that by accident. On the other hand ACPO openly lobbying for anti terror laws (as opposed to quietly lobbying which they can and arguably should do) was clearly deliberate.
62. Yokel - that is a very good and fair post.
I would guess the CPS is more politicised than the police. Their top brass have recused themselves from this investigation as they are so close to the political protagonists, haven’t they?
63. ukpaul, I never said that ANYONE in the government is above the law.
65 Indeed, Red Flump. Our friend from across the Irish Sea is particularly impressive on fuzz-related matters.
A few short weeks ago there was a lot of discussion about the need for role models for black kids. Well there are a couple emerging recently for all young males of whatever origin.Commmon heroes can bind people together.
Lewis Hamilton, the wonderkid of Formula 1 this season, is particularly good news in this respect: hard working, determined, modest and thoughtful and unbelievably successful.
Now it seems that there is a footballer who was a war hero who worked his way through the ranks to become an officer only to die in the last few months of the First World War.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml;jsessionid=FEZ5AHDGCXUIFQFIQMGCFGGAVCBQUIV0?xml=/news/2007/04/16/nguard116.xml
67 - But there have been a number of comments around here and elsewhere suggesting that the police should do what is best for the government. That’s what being ‘above the law’ amounts to.
Glad that you don’t agree with the other new labour posters who claim that cash for honours isn’t a problem however, the posts about how ‘everyone does it, so that’s okay’ have been particularly nauseating (and Nixonian).
RedFlump - is this the kind of ’shake up’ you think the Met need? I’m sure it will do wonders for public confidence in policing. No wonder the police are now gunning for the organised madness that is Nu Labour…
‘Politically correct police force hiring officers ‘who can’t do the job’
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/news/article-23392487-details/Politically+correct+police+force+hiring+officers+%27who+can%27t+do+the+job%27/article.do
70. ukpaul - I don’t believe the police should do what is best for the government. They should be stricly neutral.
Re 72, Redflump, do you find it interesting that whilst almost every other service swears an oath to the Queen (or Crown, IE the nation) that SOCA swears one to the government?
73. I’m not one for conspiracy theories!
I don’t believe the good people in SOCA will drag you from your beds and gun you down if you attack Tony or Cherie.
As if the debt mountain is not high enough for householders:
“Homeowners should be given special loans to allow them to make their houses more energy efficient, the Liberal Democrats have said.”
And of course shortly thereafter the work would become compulsory as people could ‘afford it’. The result would certainly be more bureaucrats and the national indebtedness as a whole, inflationary pressures…..another stealth tax that backfires.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/6558499.stm
72. Yes, the excellent example of Sir Ian Blair should be a model for all other officers.
Re 74, Redflump, neither am I, but it is an interesting departure from the norm.
41. Why is everyone so quiet around Reid. He has refused to rule out standing, will NEVER back Brown and is a truly outstanding media performer. Not to mention a holder of one of the great offices of tate. Anything might happen at the Home Office, but my guess is that as long as there aren’t any more crises coming up, his stock is ok.
Will he want to stand though? And what about skeletons in the closet? But he is becoming the forgotton man of this leadership contest.
@23 Innocent Abroad
As I understand it any MP wishing to run for the leadership/deputy leadership requires 45 nominations, but this includes themselves, so they need to be nominated by 44 other MPs.
I might be wrong, but in Andrea’s apparent absence this morning I might as well have a stab ;0)
Has Hilary Benn ever ruled himself out of the running for Leader? He seems to be making a well-time speech outside of his brief in the US today.
Des Browne to resign, more details on my blog
http://aconservatives.blogspot.com/
O/T In Scottish elections, Paddy Power make Labour 8/11 from 11/8 and SNP 1/1 from 8/15. What’s up?
[79] That makes sense. Thanks, Mike.
I manintain that Labour will not do as badly as is suggested in these elections. People are tired of giving them a bloody nose and are just waiting for the next election. Also the rvival of the tories might help Labour get their core vote out.
Scotland looks bad, but nothing is for certain. Wales looks much less than a disaster; they’ll probably form another lib dem coalition like before 2003. As for England, expect losses, but remember Blair is going anyway and there was an Iraq protest in the 2003/04 elections and the lib dems are weaker now. As bad as things may be in Baghdad, the electorate won’t punish labour again.
[81] You can’t tell a Prime Minister from a football club owner, can you? It’s that pony-tail getting in your eyes again…
Re 85, Innocent, you can?
82 thanks - I have just got £200 on
84 Labour will do very well if they get away with a loss of less than 600 in England. The fact that they’re only standing in 60% of the seats (compared to 66% in 2003, and 77% in 1999) tells its own story.
79. Mike O’Carroll, you’re rught. It’s 44 nominations by other MPs + the candidate itself being the 45th one.
81. benedict ya bollocks!
I took that seriously for a second and was nearly on the phone on William Hill on the off chance their ministerial resigned/sacked market was still up. Was thinking of a sneaky there……
78. Because, as Jackie Ashley write in the Grauniad, “I cannot see the party deciding that if Brown is the problem, Reid is the answer”.
Re 90, Sorry about that Yokel, but it is normally the way things run is it not? Blair expresses full confidence in someone who then resigns in the next day or two?
27. Presume there is a typo in post 27?
Surely you mean Sarkozy 52, Royal 48?
If Royal is leading 52/48 that would be very big news.
Re 91, Anatole, I could not have put it better myself.
93- Yes of course, sorry about that.
O.T France - Updates on the campaign
“Sarkozy is the leader of the politican scum” Le Pen told journalists this morning… confirming what I said about his strategy
Sarkozy came to Colombey les deux églises on De Gaulle’s grave (with only two carefully selected journalists) this morning to try to establish himself as national unity figure (opposing to his portrayal by the left a svery divisive)
Bayrou refused an alliance with the socialists “before the first round”. he apparently understood his error of last friday, appearing too enthusiastic about an alliance only with the left. But he lets open everything for second round alliances…
Hollande (Royal’s partner)again talked up the risk of a “very high” le pen vote and trenewed his calls for “useful votes”.
re 82. it’s the rogue poll commented on yesterday which puts Lab 3% ahead (previously they’d had the SNP 12% ahead).
Chris(from Paris), it looks like Royal has seen off Bayrou and Sarkozy has seen off Le Pen. So mentally, I’ve already moved onto the second round. Do you think Bayrou will be able to endorse Royal or will the UDF splinter if he does? Do you think Sarkozy will maintain the same campaign theme or move off the immigration, morality and crime issues back onto the economy?
98- Mister Chip
I think that Bayrou would be extremely foolish to endorse Royal officially, especially as she seems bound to lose. This would immediately provoke a flight of MPs from his UDF party to Sarkozy’s UMP. His strength in this campaign is that he has managed to build an unlikely coalition of left-wing and right-wing voters. Most of the latter would vote Sarkozy anyway so Bayrou needs to adopt an impartial tone and maintain his offer to work with both sides.
Concerning Sarkozy’s campaign themes, I think that during the second round camapign against royal, he would insist on the “credibility” issue: many French people don’t like him personally (viewed as too nervous or even brutal) but think
that he is far more competent than Royal.
98- Mister Chip
I think that Bayrou would be extremely foolish to endorse Royal officially, especially as she seems bound to lose. This would immediately provoke a flight of MPs from his UDF party to Sarkozy’s UMP. His strength in this campaign is that he has managed to build an unlikely coalition of left-wing and right-wing voters. Most of the latter would vote Sarkozy anyway so Bayrou needs to adopt an impartial tone and maintain his offer to work with both sides.
Concerning Sarkozy’s campaign themes, I think that during the second round camapign against royal, he would insist on the “credibility” issue: many French people don’t like him personally (viewed as too nervous or even brutal) but think
that he is far more competent than Royal.
82/87: a question - what if Labour and the SNP end up with equal numbers of seats? Presumably anyone betting on either of them would lose: and anyone betting on both would, likewise, lose the lot?
I notice that our good friends and allies are doing all they can again to prevent British service families from learning why their loved ones have been killed. If Brown does nothing else he must get across to George Bush (rather than TB’s yes George, no George, anything you say George routine) that this is unetirely unacceptable to the UK.
102. He won’t, as he is as much a Murdoch sock puppet as Blair.
I have just watched a news report on Sky news on child slavery in Ghana and am stunned that it seems so commonplace there. They even met the mother who sold a little girl for £50 a few years earlier. The mother did not look in particularly desperate straights.
101 Dead heat rules would probably apply, HG. They can’t both be losers!
105 - thanks, PtP: presumably that would mean the stakes simply being refunded?
106 - half your bet would win (at the full odds) and half your bet would lose. Hence odds-on backers would lose (a little) and odds-on backers would win. Backers at evens (1/1) break even.
107 - odds-against backers would win. Apologies.
104. When will the British government apologise for this disgrace?
Re 109, DaveS,
64 Benedict, any word from the inside track as to whether Blair has signed and returned his “witness statements” yet? I was under the impression that was one of the reasons for Yates’ inability to close out the loans for peerages case.
Re 111, Mark, I had almost forgotten about that!
No word I am afraid, but I suspect he couldn’t still be dragging it out.
Michael Clapham (Barnsley West and Penistone MP) to nominate McDonnell
If anyone is interested, here’s Labour shortlist in Bethnal Green:
Helal Abbas
Rushanara Ali
John Biggs
Rupa Huq
Shiria Khatun
Lutfor Rahman
114 Who are they, Andrea, any idea?
114. Which is the “odd one out”?
114. Augustus. John Biggs is the London Assembly Member for City and East. Rupa Huq is the sister of Blue Peter’s Konnie Huq. Lutfur Rahman and Shiria Khatun are local councillors. Rushanara Ali used to work for Oona and is involved in the Young Fabian
Chris (from Paris) - will get to work on a competition for the first round - if you want to drop me a line at electiongame@yahoo.co.uk, I’ll send you a preview copy for your comments. BTW, many thanks to you and also to Mister Chip for your updates on France, it’s been extremely illuminating. I presume from your comments that even if he gets a strong 3rd place, Bayrou is in no sense a kingmaker for the Elysee?
PtP - thanks again for your efforts re tomorrow - looking forward to seeing you & everyone else there. What happened to Joe’s Edge though?
117. “is involved in the Young Fabian” I meant Young Foundation. Not sure why I wrote Fabian
http://www.youngfoundation.org.uk/about/people/staff/rushanara_ali
116. RedFlump, John Biggs by any chance?
Many thanks, Andrea.
Go Rupa Huq!!! I’ve always liked Blue Peter.
Re 121 Is that the only Blue thing you ever liked?
OT. The ABC’s Lateline has just run the headline figures for the latest Newspoll in tomorrow’s Australian (which should come online in a few hours): ALP 59 L/NP 41 on the two party preferred.
More here: http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,21570079-1702,00.html
This is really bad news for Howard and a very respectable two point swing to Rudd.
Labor gained the two percentage points despite Rudd seriously copping it in the Murdoch papers and commercial TV over his role to help broadcast a fake Anzac Day dawn service from Vietnam for Australia’s version of GMTV, called “Sunrise” on Channel 7.
The story has been very low profile on the ABC and the Fairfax newspapers (Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, Financial Review) but the Murdoch papers (just about everything else) have been bigging it up, as have the other commercial TV stations (Nine and Ten).
John Howard now really needs to start turning the polls around now if he wants to survive, rather than going backwards!
120. Augustus, it’s a pleasure. I forgot Helal Abbas. He’s a local councillor (and former Tower Hamlets council leader)
122. Actually blue is one of my favourite colours!
Henryg, when you said that there were many young Labour candidates in your area (County Durham), I hope you didn’t use Councillor James Graham as a comparison to decide what is young and what not!
(note: Councillor James Graham from Stanley Urban District in County Durham is 94 year old and he has decided it’s time to retire)
118- Double carpet
Ok,i’ll send you an e-mail this afternoon.
As for Bayrou, “Le Monde” (the paper that is the nearest to him) had an article named “The political re-composition Mr Bayrou advocates will be jeopardized if he does not reach the second round”
I think it is meant to be a subtle call to vote for him… especially as it is published next to a piece criticizing Royal (from a NY Times journalist)
29: andrea, right as usual. But I won’t cheat on the bets by claiming that only May results count - we’ll wait to resolve them as necessary till Beeston Central has voted.
Benedict: cats are the tops, but dogs are very fine too. It’s humans you have to watch out for.
12 Maybe the pollsters had better find out which party the immigrants prefer? On the whole I think its the Lib Dems who do best from the immigrant voter. There are numerous reports that immigrants use the electoral register for fraudulent purposes i.e. fake benefit claims, identity checks, credit etc, etc. How they vote in elections I really don’t know and have no concrete evidence but I think the left may target the immigrant voter to oppose the BNP and this causes further problems which is one of root causes of racial conflicts in England.
118 Double Carpet - Joe’s Edge pulled up lame on the second circuit. He was lobbing along fine on the inside for about the first mile and a half but I saw him make a mistake at about the twelfth and he never looked comfortabale after that. I suspect he injured himself then but that’s all I can tell you. He was one of a number of classier animals failing to give their true running for one reason or another.
Silver Birch must be the worst winner since Red Marauder. McKelvie was the only form horse to get placed and would have won had he too not gone lame in the closing stages.
Disappointing race all round really.
127 - Chris(from Paris),
Your point on Royal’s competence is well-made given what she said today about the minimum wage - confusing gross and net pay, thereby briefly committing the socialists to a gigantic wage hike.
I’m presuming the ban on opinion polls during the last days of an election is over?
128 Nick P
As you can guess, I’m fairly comfortable with cats and dogs. My greyhound however has rather strong opinions. Whilst he has nothing against cats in themselves, he thinks there are far too many. He blames the EU, which has encouraged too many to come to this country where they are a drain on the local economy. He suspects they use the electoral register for fraudulent purposes, fake benefit claims, identity checks, etc. They also push up the cost of kenneling and pet food, making life difficult for the indiginous dog population. The left, he thinks, encourages them to oppose the Natural Dog Party and this in turn fuels Catism, a major cause of antagonism between household pets.
What is Labour doing about it? He would like to know.
114 - excuse my ignorance, but why isn’t Oona King herself running for Bethnal Green again?
127 - I think a ban on opinion polls in French elections makes little difference, considering how disasterously wrong they had things last time…
O/T - THE SUN IS OUT! Anyone got any good tips for al fresco beers this week? I’ve listed a couple of my favourites - and linked to a Standard article with many more - on my blog, but was hoping PB readers might feel inclined to leave a comment with their own suggestions - please follow this link:
Stonch’s Beer Blog - BIRRA AL FRESCO
Cheers and thank you.
128 - Nick, You are a gentleman and a scholar ;)….I’m feline good about this one.
133 - Actually Stonch, the post-2002 research suggests that it was partly due to the late opinion polls that Le Pen eliminated Jospin from the second round. Disgruntled Chirac and Jospin supporters, convinced their men were through, decided to register a protest by voting for the far left and right.
O/T. For those of us attending the launch party tomorrow will there be enough internet access points available at the NLC so that we can communicate with each other via the blog? We will need aat least 60 by my reckoning.
Re 128, Nick Palmer, Yes it is!
Swansea Evening Post has just run a story that Peter Hain was booed and jeered on ‘Any Questions’ from Swansea when he claimed that Labour had improved the city. Not many people might listen to ‘Any Questions’ but the paper is widely read in the West Glamorgan area. There is a general lack of enthusaism for Labour at the moment. Rhodri Maorgan has just produced another lack lustre performance on the Radio Wales phone in. Labour ministers have also come second best to other politicians in two TV debates in the last few days.Both Carwyn Jones and Andrew Davies who are being seen as possible future First Minister were poor.
132. I think the government would just mark your canaine as a right wing blatant knee jerk catist who
As a particularly fast type of dog that expends a lot of energy and thus has increased CO2 emissions compared to the average dog, he will also be more heavily taxed.
136 I am told, StJohn, that there are a number of internet points in the basement at the NLC, so we should be able to keep tabs on what is going on here.
It had occurred to me however that it might be a nice idea if, in a gesture of goodwill, we were to turn over the site to The Creatures for the day and just let them roam free.
On condition they didn’t trash the joint of course.
136 Sorry, stjohn, there are only about half a dozen, and they are on a different floor on the other side of the building. You could try bringing a laptop, or doing it off a Blackberry or a mobile phone or whatever. Obviously, much better than having to speak to each other face to face!
140. Sorry Peter, you missed my point. How will we communicate with each other at the launch party if we don’t have access to the PBC site? You’re not proposing we talk to each other are you?
142 Don’t know about you StJohn, but after Saturday I’m not expecting anybody to talk to me.
143. I had this Brave New World Vision of us all sat around the perimeter of the room focussed on our computer terminals silently blogging away to each other.
stjohn, I understand that the NLC is in the process of recruiting a new Club Bore for the 2008/9 season. Maybe one of our number could be a contender!
114. Stonch. After the going over Oona suffered in 2005, as well as becoming a mother she decided to let things go locally, although she was campaign manager for the Labour Party in the two Bow wards last year.
However as I am a local rsident, politically active in Tower Hamlets and involved in the 2005 Bethnal Green election, it is unlikely that any comment I might post would be of interest to PBC
I have just noticed, only 51 more visits to visit number 25,000 on my blog!
Wow how time flies!
(stjohn, strictly between ourselves I think I have just found out who it might be!)
145 Pretty fierce competition, Gus.
Peter (146),
Your insights into Tower Hamlets politics are always appreciated, although the suggestion that Oona was ‘campaign manager’ for Labour in Bow last year is VERY wide of the mark…
148. Augustus. Would your suspect be the proud but reticent owner of his own blog?
151 I think you might be right…..
Liam Fox’s inability to structure a short speech adequately means he missed an open goal. Is he the bright, dynamic right winger we were supposed to prefer above Cameron ?
Sorry, fr
Totally OT, the NUJ votes for a boycott fo Israeli goods in protest at the Lebanon conflict. No mention of boycotting any Palestinian goods given that…well..I’ll let you all see the irony..
150 Sunkenfaces. Many thanks. I think you have made one of the most valuable points I have seen recently and should be noted by many posters here.
Politics is tribal, I know my party and my group locally. I know the Boroughs That I have been involved in politically extremely well, but through the prism of my party. I should add that I have been agent or candidate in winning and losing elections in Brent, Camden, Haringey, Hackney, Tower Hamlets, Lambeth, Havering, Barking and Dagenham and Waltham Forest. I have also been losing agent in an Islington election!
For a number of years I attended all party conferences and the TUC. I would never presume to pretend to be part of another party or second guess how they react.
Hence comments on the labour leadership are redundant and irrelevant by me. Likewise the Lib Dem view on Sir Menzies is mor eimportant than inane comments from activists of the other parties. Equally one can laugh at how Labour and LD activists totally misunderstand the Conservative party.
My fellow ward councillors in Tower Hamlets have been more than amused at the comments on blogsiteson our win. Now here comes the major revelation. Who in their right mind is going to post on a public website details of an election campaign. The answer can be seen by the way in which Labour and Conservative activists do their best to get their hands on “Grassroots campaigner” and how the Liberal Democrats try and make sure that it does not fall into the hands of opponents.
Yup, Labour councillors chat to me in a corridoor BUT they tell me what they want me to hear.
I stand by my comment that the person who wrote in 2006 Labour that Labour won the Bow wards with paper candidates was completely incorrect. It was a brilliant campaign by Labour with formidable candidates, and demonstarted how poor the Labour campaign was in other parts of the Borough. Significantly neither we on the Island or Labour in Bow posted on Vote 2006.
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