Is Johnson regretting his decision not to stand?
April 16th, 2007
Do his Brown coronation calls look like sour grapes?
One of the features that distinguishes leaders from normal politicians is their ability to seize the moment and go for it when the opportunity occurs. It is about having the courage to risk failure and take your chance however remote.
If by any chance that Gordon doesn’t get it this time then he might rue the moment after Neil Kinnock stepped down when he stood aside for John Smith. Michael Portillo might have made a similar mistake when he failed to respond to John Major’s “put up or shut up” election in 1995.
It is this thought process that must be dominating David Miliband’s mind at the moment.
Maybe the rather pathetic call this afternoon by Alan Johnson for Gordon to get it without a vote will help clear Miliband’s thinking? For Johnson had his chance, decided to wait and his comments simply look like special pleading
What a fascinating contest this is proving to be?
My money, quite a lot now, is on Miliband taking up the challenge.
There’s been a little movement in the with Gordon out to 0.29/1 and Miliband trading at about 5/1.
Mike Smithson
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Mike i agree, this does look rather pathetic. All these people popping up to say Miliband should not stand just make Gordon look insecure whether he has anything to do with it or not.
Johnson has missed his chance, does he want Miliband to miss his?
GB pretends to want a contest. Several voices (even some of the dimmer contributors to pb.com) pretend that ‘a civilised debate on policy’ would help the govt.
Away from the land of make believe, the SNP looks a good bet at evens to win more seats than Labour in the Scottish parliament. Why are their odds drifting?
O/T what is the nearest tube station to the National Liberal club?
Hmm oh dear I fear Montgomeryshire Liberal Democrats will have heads in hands when they see the latest Lembit pic in the Sun. When the local press re-produces the sh1t will really hit…….
I’m sure Johnson does regret ruling himself. Someone asked on the previous thread if Hilary Benn has ruled himself out. Has he? If he stood this contest would get very interesting.
2 - Embankment I believe (Circle & District, Bakerloo, Northern (Charing Cross branch))
re 2. Rogue poll much talked about here yesterday.
re 4. It was me an no-one said one way or other. I can’t remember hiom ever doing so.
Iain Dale is also fuming at the “Winning Here” antics of Cardiff Liberal Democrats. Ok for Cardiff Central, very naughty for Cardiff North, but what of the other two any views. I can see the LIb Dems making ground for the long term in Cardiff West, but Cardiff South seems to be up in the air they seem to be encountering stiffer resistance than anticipated from the Tories. Be a close thing for second with a split vote saving Labour’s bacon probably.
8. If the Tories win Cardiff North in the Welsh Assembly then, other things being equal, the Lib Dems will take one of the Conservative places on the ‘list’.
All these protestations from senior Labour MPs about how great Gordon Brown is/will be, just have the smack of desperation and whistling to keep their spirits up. They can read the polls like anybody else of course.
What will undo Gordon is the fact that a critical mass of Labour MPs who have the self realisation to understand that they will not get jobs in a Gordon Brown administration, either because their faces don’t fit or they’re not sufficiently collegiate or on message, will have to decide whether they prefer to give Gordon the job “as of right” or keep paying their mortgages after 2009.
If they choose the latter, then Milliband is game on.
That said, Brown has a formidable careerist infrstructure of people who cannot conceive of his not being Leader of the Labour Party. So if Milliband did get it, he would be undermined from day one by this hard core of Brownite refuseniks.
3 - “I fear Montgomeryshire Liberal Democrats will have heads in hands when they see the latest Lembit pic in the Sun. When the local press re-produces the sh1t will really hit……. ”
It was hardly shocking. What is the scandal if the local paper runs with “MP goes on holiday with girlfriend, kisses her and play ping-pong with her”?
11. Very true. But its the “playboy” image it feeds that it is the killer. Maybe unfair but it jars sharply with hard working Constituency MP persona Liberal Democrat MPs work so hard on. Lembit brought some of it on himself with that unwise crack in the House. They should stll hold but Lwmbit is not helping.
11. He even looks quite good in that pic
3. “When the local press re-produces the sh1t will really hit……”
if Chris Bryant managed to increase his majority after posing in yfronts and saying he was “horny as b***ery” (and very versatile, naturally), I suppose Lembit can survive playing ping pong with his girlfriend.
12 Sorry Punter , think you are way off beam here .
Rhonnda and Montgomeryshire are chalk and cheese. You can’t compare the two. The ghost of the old chapel vote still lingeres there. Rhonnda on the other hand would quite literally elect anyone or indeed anything in a red rosette.My term was a bit overblown. As I say they should hold still, but every time Lembit pops up a few more votes seep from them.
14. Any knowledge on 8.
15. “Rhonnda on the other hand would quite literally elect anyone or indeed anything in a red rosette”
apart in 1999 and anyway the point was the increased majority (which isn’t guaranted in any place)
I suppose also Montgomeryshire people have girlfriends, go on holiday with them and play ping pong. It seems that some people want to see scandals where there’s just something normal
15 Think Iain Dale is showing his naievity that caused the size of his GE defeat to be a surprise to him . The old chapel vote as you put it is pretty much a ghost these days even in Montgomeryshire and I think the result may surprise you . I am getting bullish noises from the ground in Swansea and Cardiff but no 1st hand knowledge as I have not been there .
The anti Brown plot thickens… The ABG group are really playing high stakes now. Will they get their man, will Mike get his dosh. Who knows? I said it before but it does feel like the end of King Kong. Clearly the powers that are after Brown are circling ever closer. I hope not, but we’ll see.
15. If this sort of thing loses votes, then Henley must be a marginal!
17. There is no “scandal” as such and yes you’re quite right about lifetstyles. I am saying is the “elitist” playboy image that is the hurtful aspect.
18. Yes but a ghost it is and in a low turnout election it is these ghosts that are more likely to turn out. I still hold to a reduced majority. Can you be more specific in constituencies. Cardiff West I hear good things for you. I think Rhodri will see a real cut in his majority. Cardiff South less certain you are doing well V Labour but coming up against a strong Tory candidate. I’m surprised you only put a student up in your most promising part of Cardiff after Cardff Central. If the Tory vote holds as I think it will, the split anti Labour vote should mean a comfortable hold, unless their suppport really does stay home all together en masse.
20. Turnout, turnout, Turnout.
http://www.theherald.co.uk/politics/news/display.var.1330133.0.0.php
this forum contains information of a supressed opinion poll and if released would be very interesting - go to 6.35 pm.
23 No moderation on the Herald site then, Tellem?
21 - but ping pong? You hardly imagine Leslie Phillips or Errol Flynn settling in for a best-of-7 match do you?
24 - no I don’t think there is.
26 So anybody can post any old piece of fiction and mislead readers, if they like?
…Of course on a political site, such misconduct is merely irritating. On a betting site, it can cause people to lose money.
You see the reason for my concern, Tellem?
23 mrk are the pollsters whose previous Herald poll had Labour well in the lead would appear a complete waste of space attempting to read anything meaningful in any of their polls . ICM and Yougov seem to be the only pollsters in Scotland we can take seriously .
re Jonathan 19. My bet on Miliband is that he will stand - and I make money irrespective of whether he wins.
29. We will only really find out once the votes have actually been counted of course…but there is definitely a lot of ramping and voodoo polling going on.
Re 28 & 29. Mark S is absolutely correct. MRUK should be ignored whatever figures they are showing. They are not a member of the British Polling Council and do not have to follow the transparency requirements. I say this about all pollsters which don’t subscribe to the agreed industry code.
9. Not sure but think really not. Think the VoG would have to go as well before that would happen. As it well might. Even then that is assuming against a good Plaid list performance meaning they are are benefiting.
18. Didn’t RedFlump (I think it was him. If it wasn’t you, correct me) said Labour was asking members to go and help in Swansea?
8. *When* the Tories win Cardiff North. If they only held by 500 in the halcyon days of 2003. I know of no sane person on this earth who think they will hold this time.
34. Their best hope in Swansea West is PC & Lib Dems splitting the vote. If it rallies to one or tother they’re done for. Swansea East could be interesting though……..
34 Don’t know Andrea , I do know that the LibDems have been having action weekends every weekend for some months now in Swansea West .
14 I think punter was referring to the hilarious ‘winning here’ barcharts. Again from the LibDems a ridiculous and patently misleading use of statistics which is constantly successful -
My favourte was one that got put through my letterbox when I lived in Rutland, the scaling clearly showed that Dinky was within a gnats whisker of losing his seat. How they turned 18% into something near Dinky’s 51% whilst simultaneously putting Labour in third is still a mystery but I’m sure Mark Senior can explain how it works out and isn’t at all deceptive.
36. See 21. Can you be shade more specific. I mean are people from X constituency telling you Y, or is it just based on “action weekends” occurring.
£500 says Miliband will not stand! And Lembit, not seen the picture but don’t think the Sun gets to Welshpool!
Kingbongo - It only works when it works!
Innocent Abroad (as I know you are interested in it), it’s official: Diane Abbott has won reselection
http://lukeakehurst.blogspot.com/2007/04/four-more-years.html#links
39. You have heard syndication rights right………….
40 Don’t think it will work in Crdiff North somehow.
39
You’re on Icarus
An even monkey that Miliband WILL stand after local council elections
37 Of course it is deceptive to some extent , it is called real politics and fighting to win . Other parties are free to respond to things they think are inaccurate or misleading and can and do put out misleading and false information themselves . To give just one example , Labour talking up the SNP in a constituency when they know the real challenge is from the LibDems .
38 People in X and Y consituencies are telling me bullish things .
44. Why are you so reluctant to name constituencies, your sources can remain anonymous you know……..
39 & 43
Has anyone else read article in todays Evening Standard on page 13
headed “Miliband will run—-and he can win”
by Lance Price former advisor to Tony Blair and author of the Spin Doctor’s Diary.
He predicts that he will have Tony Blair’s support if he does stand.
39/43 - Wow, you two must have had three shreddies this morning! A monkey? I’m ducking this one. Well, almost.
Anybody want 50p Icarus is right?
Accepted Prince Monowhatsit.
Does Peter hold the stakes?
Hang on - he will stand - but three or four years after!!!! I’m betting on this leadership elections!
49 I’ll hold the stakes if you like, Icarus. To me, the bet seems clear enough. We’re obviously talking about this election. Any argument and my decision is final.
You both up for it?
Fine - I really cannot believe that Tony will lower himself to support any lesser mortal!
The Murdoch Media smell blood and are drip feeding their public.
Pension Plunder…Bullion Blunder…
An article by a times commentator highlight the mistake of being a young person in Britain under Labour. Apparently there are few jobs, low salaries and high house prices…
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/william_rees_mogg/article1657963.ece
We are a bit unlucky in the betting markets available in this country. I’ve just opened an account with unibet, which seems scandinavian, because they are offering 7-1 against a Miliband win, (best tonight)?
When I saw the detailed bets on candidates 1st round percentages on the French election, it would make many of you drool.
51 Noted, Icky.
Now, do I hear anything from the Monolulu corner?
45 Clearly Swansea West is one .
55. I think I knew that! But there are 8 in SwanseaCardiff and Newport and methinks you were referring to more than that. Do you back my bet/suspicion one in the three incl Cardiff Central! will go yellow.
52: Rees-Mogg is many things (such as nearly always readable and nearly always wrong), but a tool of Rupert Murdoch he isn’t, despite being a former editor. I remember he felt very strongly about gold when he was editor, though.
Similalry, Lance Price has not for a long time been a good guide to what Tony Blair thinks. I can’t see him endorsing anyone until after the leadership election - it’d do the endorsee no good at all, since however much most members continue to like TB, we’ll want the new leader to be his own man (or woman as the case may be!).
10: Stewart Jackson - maybe Tory MPs decide who to support just from expectation of preferment, but you shouldn’t project these things. Most of us want the leader we think most likely to win.
By the way, I gather Labour hopes to regain control of Hastings next month - two by-elections in traditionally Labour wards will do the trick if we win both. (It’s otherwise an off-year for the council’s elections.)
44 Mark Senior admits LibDems are deceptive shock
I particularly like the ‘playing to win’ line - might work in some places but Rutland?!?! There’ll be a statue of Dinky next to the Butter Cross in Oakham when he retires.
Nice of Mark to admit though that when those bar charts are produced they are intended to deceive rather than enlighten; a bit like some of the Millibland articles where this patently unprepared propellorhead with a shaving problem is promoted as a serious contender for the Labour leadership.
There is only one serious contender, and that’s Blair who stupidly intends to leave office. Milliband won’t stand and if I had a monkey for betting then I’d stake it. If he does stand it’s with Gordo’s blessing to provide a contest. Clarke would love to stand but just won’t get the signatures.
Mike,
Reread my post. Not sure I wrote what I meant. Huge respect as ever regarding tips. Sounds like you could well make on Milliband standing. The pressure for a contest is huge. But where/who is it coming from really? There are so many good Labour figures saying dont do it. Such as Johnson and Denham on Sunday. I went to a Fabian event where Kinnock claimed to “know” that Milliband would not stand, he was not that “foolish”.
So who is egging him on? Is it Blair, Mandleson. Who? I am not in this particular loop at the moment. Do you understand what is going on? I appeciate the roots of the ABG movement, but where does it get its zest. Most of the cabinet are backing Brown now if you take their comments at face value. Brown’s reputation has come a long way since 2005 where he could claim to have won it for Labour.
Perhaps this is a discussion for tomorrow?
58 Sometimes deceptive sometimes not depends on the constituency a bit like the Conservatives in the last 3 GE’S campaigning and saying they had a chance of winning .
60. Point you to 56.
54 Second call for Monolulu….
52, 57 - WRM seems to be articulating most of my recent hobby-horses all at once. Which makes me suspect that maybe things are not as bad as I think.
Totally O/T - just finished ‘Pies and Prejudice’ by Stuart Maconie - probably the best book I’ve read this century. I don’t whether I’d describe it as a travel book or a character study; basically he’s spending a whole book talking about the north of England (which he defines as from Crewe northwards). He’s at his best when drawing a pen picture of the charater of each of the big cities. Would very much recommend it to the Mancunian contingent here.
60 or like Ming making the same claim about the next GE - it’s funny because of the Lib Dem line that they are different and you can’t trust the other parties, yet they are by far the worst for this sort of dirty campaigning. Abolsutely no spinning here!! LOL
Kingbongo - are we on? - I need to make up my losses on Peter’s Dogs (horses and dogs that is) - no worries if we aren’t but it is up to you.
64 In your Conservative tinted eyes the LibDems might be the worst but I have a different view .
65 It was Monolulu - don’t start getting names wrong, Icarus. It’s a sign of aging.
Sorry have my kingbongos and monolulus mixted up!!!
It is seeing Jan Francis again on TV that does it!
“It’s a sign of aging.” As is poor spelling.
Completely O/T but apparently David Trimble is set to join the Tory party. A very welcome addition IMO.
[41] Cheers, Andrea.
Re 10, Stewart, I have been saying for ages that the only thing worse for Labour than Gordon Brown winning would be Gordon Brown losing.
Which I think is your point. Labour is caught between a Gordon and a hard place.
I love it when a plan comes together
INTERNET EXPLORER USERS. The full article that has been seen on other browsers is now available to you as well. For some reason IE is not liking our software at the moment but I’ve managed to fix it.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/northern_ireland/6561353.stm
Re 30, Mike,”Jonathan 19. My bet on Miliband is that he will stand - and I make money irrespective of whether he wins.”
Is that why you feel in a position to write a book on political betting?
BTW, I am told that if I want a signed copy it’s £10, but if I want an unsigned one it is £12.99!
Is this true?
70, 74. The Ulster Unionists do seem to have a habit of losing their ex-leaders. Brian Faulkner formed the short-lived UPNI. James Molyneux appears to be firmly in the DUP camp these days. Trimble a Tory. Whither Sir Reg?
FINAL CALL FOR MONOLULU
70/74 - A very welcome addition indeed.
re 52, Serenity, The Times, and doubly so the Sunday Times are semi detached from the Murdoch view by dint of the deal on editorial independence done at the time Rupert bought it.
78. There was a lot of talk of this happening a few years ago when IDS was leader…even talk of Trimble being a leadership candidate himself. It could be that he has decided the national situation now favours a move more than it did back then, but nevertheless this is a good coup for the Tories.
I think Monolulu has had second thoughts.
Tellem has gone a bit quiet too.
Shouldn’t we be jumping up and down shouting out “defection alert” or something?!?!
re 57, Nick Palmer, “By the way, I gather Labour hopes to regain control of Hastings next month - two by-elections in traditionally Labour wards will do the trick if we win both. (It’s otherwise an off-year for the council’s elections.)”
I’d be surprised at that. The last by election in a strong Labour ward in my neck of the woods, say Labour trounced.
It was a safe Labour ward, (held by Labour) and Labour’s vote held up, and in fact they got a couple more. Fact is that both the Liberal Democrat and Conservative vote eclipsed them to a huge degree.
Trimbles statement here:
http://www.belfasttoday.net/ViewArticle.aspx?ArticleID=2706293
I understand that he is the first of a series of “new joiners” that the Conservative Party will unveil over the Summer. That should keep the cynics quiet about the defections I have long predicted!
re 73, Mike what is Internet Explorer?
And why does anyone use it?
Re 84, RikW, to be fair, I suspect you won’t wont get the headline Unionist defects to Conservative AND Unionist party!
He is a welcome addition. After all, we have had in our ranks a Nobel lauriet for Litrature, a bicky, bricklayer, and a war time PM in our party so why not add another Nobel lauriet?
A couple of Labour and Lib Dem MP’s would be good, though along with AH Matlock I am picky. Frank Field yes, Dennis Skinner perhaps not
84 - “I understand that he is the first of a series of “new joiners” that the Conservative Party will unveil over the Summer.”
Maybe so - but it seems they’ve saved the best until first. That’s a very impressive statement from David Trimble. I certainly hope that the Conservative Party will make good use of his talents and not just hold him up above their heads as a trophy.
Populus
Con 37 (-1)
Lab 29 (-1)
LD 20 (+2)
Greens 4
SNP 3
Plaid 2
UKIP 2
BNP 1
85 Why would anyone use Microsoft anything, for goodness sake, when Apple and Linux are available and safer and smarter. Both have had many of the elements that are so ‘advanced’ in Vista for some time, and you don’t have to switch off by going to ’start’ either.
And is Vista all its cracked up to be?
Went canvassing today for the first time in almost a year - a big win for the ‘what elections’ party, but also interesting to see repeated sentiments that all the parties are saying the same things, locally and nationally.
And Rik W@84 predicting defections to the Tories over the next few months…the times they are a-changing!
See you tomorrow all.
Re 89, Witan, to be fair if I am in Xwindows with a KDE desktop, I could open a console as root and type halt, but instead use the equivalent button to start the shutdown process.
Mind you the stop button is not named start
I also agree with every thing else you say though! You can use better browsers on Windows as well!
Yes, very dignified statement by Trimble. A good man, and a boon for the Tories.
And he is right that, as Ulster politics normalises (DV), it makes sense for Westmister parties to involve themselves there. God speed the process.
OT - I am now even more than usually vexed as to what to say to people when I meet them. According to the press, How Do You Do is the only possible introduction, and the fact that Kate Middleton’s parents said “Pleased to meet you” to the Queen put them beyond the pale.
However I refuse to believe that anyone under 300 years old says “How Do You Do”, other than ironically. The phrase has an arch retro feel which makes it laughable at best. Nonetheless I also accept that “Pleased To Meet You” has a certain tweeness - like “serviette” or “toilet”.
Usually I mumble “Nice to meet you” or a simply “Hi er charming yes mm hello”. Not particularly satisfying. Maybe this is why the Americans say Howdy and the Aussies say G’day. But those locutions are even worse.
Social intercourse is tricky.
RE 92, SeanT, what is wrong with How do you do?
91 Benedict I changed to Apple with the Intel chip last year and have never looked back. The slogan is true, “It just works”. What are crashes? Viruses are almost unheard of. And it closes at the push of one button. No rolling around screens tapping fingers waiting to get the thing to load the next stage. One button and a nice voice bids me farewell (well an electronic female voice anyway). Load from cold start is just as fast.
After years of corporate slavery to the Gates Imperium I am free at last.
92 - Sean can I suggest using the phrase ‘What’s up’ if you are ever introduced to the Queen. Not only will this prevent an embarrasing social faux pas but has the added benefit of giving the impression that you are ‘down with the kids’.
93. It just sounds daft - knowingly posh in an almost insecure way, like you are trying to establish how posh you are, because at heart you are worried that people won’t realise how posh you are. “I say, How do do you? Shall we have a basket of game sent up from the village?”
Puh-leeze.
The same problem applies, even more, to the smallest room in the house. “Lavatory”, the U-word, is ridiculous. Excuse me, where’s the lavatory? Sounds absurd. Loo is twee. Toilet is a bit gross. John is vulgar and American. Jakes is old-fashioned. Bog is grim, or too ironically pleb. Khazi, similarly, is repellently contrived mockney, from anyone but a rag and bone man.
“Shitter”?
Re 95, SeanT, forgive me, but I was brought up not to give a toss!
I am happy with all sorts of greetings including “how do you do”, and all sorts of terms for a place of defacation.
It depends on the company!
Sean T it depends how you say it. In RP or more ”real’ as in ” How d’ you do?”
Populus: Labour down 7 points from April last year.
Is this meltdown for Labour in the local elections?
Could they go as low as 20%
99 No, most unlikely although it would be good news if they did.
97. From now I on I am going to say “Wotcher”.
“Wotcher, Liz, where’s the shitter?”
Probably best I will never marry into the Royal Family, given my past.
poll:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article1663017.ece
95 - Sean - apologies i I’m starting to sound demented, as this must be the third time I’ve mentioned this book - but Katie Fox has a very good chapter on this in ‘Watching the English’. To paraphrase a bit: Basically, the convention is to just mumble something. We’ve abandoned ‘How do you do?’ as it is overly formal, and formality is embarassing. But informality is embarassing, too. Everything is embarassing. That’s kind of the point of being English.
Toilet, on the other hand, is an entirely functional word and needs no euphemism. Especially when talking to Americans. I certainly don’t want to use the ‘bathroom’ when I’m e.g. at a pub - that would be ludicrous.
Must say I’m rather excited about David Timble. I’m still rather sceptical about the defections Rik’s heralding, but if this is the start and end of it I’d be quite satisfied.
98 - How about Labour low twenties (was 26%)
100,Sean,hiya,hope you’re well,and that we meet,and share jokes and laughs tomorrow.As someone raised by a realtive from London’s East End (and renting two rooms in my house to guys from London’s East End,I habitually use the word ‘khazi’ to describe the toilet-I do not see that as wrong in any shape,colour or way.For what its worth,despite having lived in Bournemouth all my life I have a tinge of London in my voice-which I positively like,as do others.Again-what’s the issue?
And Tories low forties (was 40%)
That would be a twenty point Tory lead. The aftermath could be a huge opinion poll bounce for Conservatives and massive demoralisation for Labour.
re 100, SeanT, ““Wotcher, Liz, where’s the shitter?”
“Probably best I will never marry into the Royal Family, given my past.”
yes I think you are probably right
The problem with the likes of Unibet, and of course every punter’s favourite, Bet£3.65, is if you stick more than a score on they take the market down!
On the rare occasions I’ve persuaded Blue Square of Bet£3.65 to take a proper bet, they’ve taken down the price and then shoved it back off on Betfar. Try it over the phone with your laptop on - with a bit of luck you’ll see your own money being knocked back to the market!
Labour in meltdown is no longer speculation - it’s a fact. I feel sorry for all those Labour MP’s, on the doll as the economy goes into a slowdown, and huge mortgages to pay.
Ironically there is a strong chance Brown will lose his own seat at the forthcoming general election!
Is there a hint of Tory triumphalsim re the May local elections-enjoy your day or two whislt it lasts,Tory troops,then watch a steadfast Gordon Brown send Dave Cameron and George/Boy/Gideon(whatever:wink:) back to playschool where they belong:lol:
Exclusive - ‘McConnell predicted election problems two years ago’
Labour in Scotland for the first time appears to explicitly concede defeat, 2 weeks before the election. How bad must it be? And is this based on internal polling, canvass returns or both? (Note this admission is from a Labour supporting paper.)
http://www.theherald.co.uk/politics/news/display.var.1332641.0.0.php
106 SeanT “Probably best I will never marry into the Royal Family, given my past.”
Is this referring to the Sunday tabloid revelations about yourself and the former Lady Helen (”Melons”) Windsor about which you have previously posted ?
Plaid on 2% on a UK poll is equivalent to 40% in a Wales only poll, but assuming rounding of figures this is actually anywhere between 30% & 50%. I can live with that ;0)
Predictable movement to Segolene Royal on the betting exchanges today, following one poll showing her 50-50 with Sarkozy in 2nd round. At 3.3 to 1, she still looks the value bet. Socialists always have to reach out to the left in the first round. In the two weeks between the first and second rounds, expect calls for an anti-Sarkozy “popular front”, a possible deal with Bayrou and plenty of short covering as punters realise Sarkozy is not the shoo-in the market is currently predicting.