Populus puts Labour at its lowest ever level
April 17th, 2007
But are the Labour succession details being held over?
The Times Populus survey for April is out this morning and shows that Labour is at its lowest ever level with the pollster. The only consolation for Blair-Brown is that the deficit behind the Tories has remained the same. The headline figures are with comparisons on last month: CON 37%(-1): LAB 29%(-1): LD 20% (+2).
There’s no sign in the report of responses to the named leader question - how people would vote if it was Brown’s Labour against Cameron’s Tories and Ming’s Lib Dems. My guess is that this is being held over until tomorrow when other key information about the Labour leadership will be published.
The Tories will be disappointed with their one point decline but the Lib Dems will be delighted by the increase in their support ahead of the May 3rd elections.
Alas - for the real meat from this survey we are probably going to have to wait a day. I cannot believe that at such a time as this no questions were asked that related to the Labour succession. It could have been that the paper wants to lead on what the pollster has found but decided to hold back because the US university massacre is dominating everything.
The poll is much later in the month than usual because of Easter. In the past very strange results have been found when polling has taken place over a holiday weekend and Populus decided to wait. Normally we get this survey after the first weekend of each month.
Mike Smithson
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Essentially it’s a no change poll.
“My guess is that this is being held over until tomorrow when other key information about the Labour leadership will be published.”
what information?do you now?is something that can change,and change a lot,a contest(if there is one)?.Is it going to be a poll(ICM) on guardian this week(19)?
2. +2 is at least maarginally good for the Lib Dems and may show some change. -1 each, however, is just statistical noise.
Part of what matters is what the papers say though isnt it. The headline just adds to the sense of Labour down the pan.
Plus I think most Tories that have been out canvassing will be amused to hear that we have dropped a point, I dont think so, wait til the locals are in
4. Yes, the Lib Dems’ share often does quite well in election periods when their profile increases in the media and on the doorstep - I’d expect the rise to be at least partly ‘genuine’ (as opposed to statistical). In the context of the next general election - the question usually put - it’s likely to be less significant.
5. Ah, but were you canvassing throughout late Feb/early March as well? Perhaps the local elections have come a month too late
Actually, I should be so lighthearted. The message I’m getting on the doorsteps is that there’s still a lot of disenchantment with the whole process. I’ve never known so many people complain about MP’s salaries and expenses, for example. The feeling towards Labour is bloody, but there’s no great enthusiasm for anyone else yet that I’ve detected. Perhaps that’s just the ward(s) I’m helping out in, but I doubt it.
Populus did do a special poll om the Labour leadership at the end of March ( without apparently a headline voting intention question ) so it may not be that there are things held back till tomorrow .
Unfortunately TB’s “last blitz” of reforms could include an attempt to “lock in” the move to school academies and trusts - almost as unpopular with Labour activists as Iraq. If so there could be an almighty battle within the party which would only benefit the conservatives. Hope I’m wrong.
Does anyone know how this poll relates in terms of seats?. The perceived view is the Tories need more than 40% to get an outright win at a GE, but what happens to this poll seatwise if Labour are only on 29% . Could The Tories win a majority?
9. O/T (sorry!) No great swing away from Labour detected in Swansea West. I believe Andrew Davies will hold the seat here. The recent announcement of Amazon opening the warehouse in Jersey Marine (with up to 2700 new jobs) has been mentionned time and time again by people - as well as the (Labour plabnned) SA1 development now in full swing. People can see Swansea growing and getting better. And Andrew has made sure he has kept his mug in the media to be associated with good news!
From Will Hutton in today’s Guardian:
“David Miliband is not going to stand as the Anybody But Brown candidate, backed by disaffected Blairites. Therein lies defeat, political oblivion and a split party. Brown will succeed Blair. So he is likely to be the object of massive vilification, of which this week’s debate is just the hors d’oeuvre. He and progressive Britain should beware.”
If you go down to the Club today you’re in for a big surprise.
Today’s the day the PBers have their party
The mixture as before, but disappointing that it’s not got any better. David Herdson’s view sounds reasonable, as usual, and although I’m not picking up a Tory lead on the doorstep I can confirm another bit - there is definitely some interest in the Greens. This seems to be a combination of not being a major party - which is a popular thing not to be right now - plus having been first on the scene about climate change, which most people now accept as a big issue.
There’s a bit more Populus hidden in this story - the public not inclined to blame the Government for the “sailors selling stories” row:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article1663012.ece
Re missing Herald poll. You say “ignore” mruk ,but The Herald gave prominence to the mruk poll whish showed Labour well ahead of the SNP. Curious or sinister?
Icarus 11 - is that not the same Will Hutton who on Sunday was telling us “…And on Friday, a suppressed official poll suggested that the racist Jean-Marie le Pen, who once described the Holocaust as a detail of history, will come second in next week’s presidential ballot”?
This, as I recall the thread, was later shown to be nonsense.
13. Oh really? 41% blame either Blair, Browne or MoD aka the ‘government’, vs. 24% blaming media, 13% Navy and 6% sailors…NP spinning here again.
13 Nick - how do you work that out? 41% blame the MoD, Blair or Browne (plus 16% the Navy) v 24% the media. Looks pretty much an inclination to blame the Government.
13 - that is interesting. It seems the public was Des Browne to stay, and largely blame the media. I’d like Browne to stay as there are not many I admire in the Cabinet, but Browne is one. I feel he is his own man, and is quietly efficient, rather than full of bravado.
Am I right in thinking Osborne is organising a debate to no-confidence Gordon over pension tax credits? This is madness; such a move will unite the Labour party behind Gordon. (Of course some Tory spinners will claim this is what they want, but I don’t believe them).
Interesting note that pensions expert - and former Tory adviser - says the move on tax credits is not among the top three reasons for the pensions crisis. I have not seen any polls on the subject, but I am unconvinced the public have taken on board Osborne - and Murdoch’s exaggerated message.
17 - (41% blame the MoD, Blair or Browne) not sure this is right. Perhaps the question would allow multiple responses (ie. tick as many as you like).
re 14. On the previous MRUK poll I issued a £1,000 wager challenge here last week to the pollster and the Herald that their findings would be proved wrong. Neither body has responded - draw your own conclusions.
13,
Think most people believe parts of the media are the biggest hypocrites especially the Daily Mail which had false outrage because their 100k was turned down.
If it was morally wrong to take the money, surely the same applies if you offered it.
Thought the Lib Dem defense spokesman got the tone about right, where Fox went for the pantomine angle, of over the top anger on a minor issue, and should have concentrated on the initial military failure of why they were captured.
14 - I’m not sure if it’s sinister or the Herald not wanting to make themselves look ridiculous by running two polls that are so wildly different (if indeed this poll exists).
They had enough trouble with the accuracy of their previous pollster (system 3) last time round.
You are right, SBS, in thinking Osborne is organising a debate to no-confidence Gordon over pension tax credits. And indeed, this will unite the Labour party behind Gordon. The Tories are starting to believe their own propaganda.
21. Everyone knows the media are amoral - no news there. The cluelessness, flip-flopping, and dodging of responsibility by government is the real story. Further reinforcement of the growing belief among voters that Labour are incompetent and untrustworthy.
22. Yes - remember the SNP posters on here attacking those System 3 polls as ‘voodoo polls’….?
13 and previous threads - Are the memoirs of Sir Tubby Tufton Bufton DSO & bar telling of his heroic gin drinking from Suez to Port Stanley also to be banned.
Of course not - he’s an officer and gentleman and they are mere squadies.
And before anyone says anything there is a long tradition of officers writing for money while still on active service.
Incidentally, in S Wales have seen NO Tory or PC posters (and I drive around quite a bit. Quite a few Labour banners in gardens in Cardiff North (esp on North Road and suburbs), a few LibDem diamonds here and there. Apathy as usual.
25 this true - I found the whole affair squalid but I think it’s more the cringe making nature of what they said - Winston Churchill charging at Omdurman or escaping the Boers or Andy McNab fighting in Iraq are somehow not an embarrassment; crying over having your i-pod taken off you is humiliating; especially as other service men and women are out there doing amazing things every day fighting a war they know lacks a moral purpose.
It’s not apathy, RedFlump - it’s a two horse race, according to your observations.
25. I see we have a new addition to the Lib Dem ‘chippy’ squad.
“The result of all this was that the only person to lay a glove on him - the Tories were, as ever, quite hopeless - was a Labour MP, Kate Hoey.”
Simon Hoggart in today’s Guardian - maybe with the Tories failing to move out of their heartlands in the country and failing in parliament, is now the time to start backing Labour again?
26,
Red Flump too true apathy as usual around York too, no posters of any description yet.
Thought outer York might see a Conservative revival, of places in the North where they used to be strong.
However the Lib Dems who run the council are very good at protesting in leaflets about planning applications they have approved.
Good tactic to get upset householders in suburbia out to vote.
To be be fair though they are the only party out there keeping local people updated, so they deserve their success.
Think they will win this new seat at next GE.
Max,
On Sunday you said: “Completely O/T but the Scottish Mail on Sunday had a poll by Scottish Opinion that put Labour slightly ahead. The same firm had the SNP 12% ahead just a few days ago. Which doesn’t seem very likely!”
You don’t happen to have your copy of the Scottish edition of the Mail on Sunday still kicking about the house do you? I ask cos Anthony Wells is reporting that “Scottish Opinion” found identical levels of voting intention in both the 1st and the 2nd vote, which I just find very hard indeed to swallow:
http://www.ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/scottish-voting-intention/
What seems to have happened is that “Scottish Opinion” (note: not a member of the British Polling Council) have just given a headline to the MoS, but not actually asked about constituency versus regional list voting intention. That is exactly what they had done in an SNP-commissioned poll published in SoS last year. Pretty damn useless!
If you, or anyone else out there, still has the MoS from two days ago, please provide as much detail as poss, eg fieldwork dates, sample size, did they give separate constituency vs list numbers, anything!! (I have scoured the MoS website, but in common with the Sunday Times Scotland, Scottish Sun, and every other Scottish edition of an English newspaper, they refuse to publish their Scottish content online! Truly bizarre.)
Ta in advance.
32 - Sorry can’t remember Stuart and I think the paper is allready in the re-cycling. I think these polls (as Mike S) has said should probably be ignored in any case. It just doesn’t seem credible to have that amount of movement in a week.
Had a look at the poll in the Times (bad, but no surprise really!) and caught an interesting article about how Tories treat Cameron in the North.
Looking at the introduction to this thread, am I the only one to be a tad nervous at the news that “Blair promises last blitz of reforms to ensure he goes out with a bang”.
Hmmm. “Blitz” and “Bang”. Does Iran need to get worried?
Seriously though, I wouldn’t put it past Tony Blair to do something spiteful and leave a mess, as a parting ‘gift’ for Gordon Brown to sort out when he takes over.
35 “Blitz” and “Bang”. Does Iran need to get worried?
Yes, we do need that IPOD back. (It’s a better excuse than WMD, as we know Iran has the IPOD.)
That poor bloke is going to get crucified when he gets back to his ship. He will be known as Mr Bean for the rest of his career!
36 - O/T (ish) but talking about Ipod’s and Iraq etc…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rw2nkoGLhrE
Many thanks for teh article. I predicted last Tuesday that Labour would go sub 30% in this article:
http://aconservatives.blogspot.com/2007/04/how-low-can-labour-go.html
So am feeling somewhat smug for a change
That said I would like to see a yougov and ICM poll.
36. Great! A 21st Century equivalent of “The War of Jenkin’s Ear”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_of_Jenkin%27s_Ear
39 - so how low for Labour in the notional national share in the locals? 23%?
39. See Benedict, you were right!
You mustn’t hide your light under a bushel so much. You ought to plug your blog more!
39 “That said I would like to see a yougov and ICM poll.”
Sad case of opinion poll addiction. A visit to the The Priory may be required.
Mike
Best wishes for your book launch
A bit surprised no one’s mentioned this yet (perhaps you all did it to death in the wee small hours):
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/6561989.stm
Good presentational skills by the Tories, I’d say, even if it does remind me of Lib Dem leaflets and planning applications
Talking of which, any councillor-Peebie who’s ever served on a planning committee knows that, if the officers really want one to go through, they threaten the councillors with personal surcharge if they vote it down (”unreasonable behaviour” rule).
[6] Yup, cussed lot, the voters. Do they want intelligent, hard-working MPs? They say they do - do they want to pay for them? Absolutely not. No wonder, as my Treasury source pointed out to me the other day, that the Government introduced State funding by the back door (councillors’ allowances) - we’d never have let it in through the front.
I’m not surprised that people are finding cynicism on the doorsteps. ‘Twas ever thus. I reckon if Boris Berezovsky ran for London Mayor on a promise to fund the precept personally for a year he’d be a shoo in - no one would give tuppence for anything else he might or might not do, up to and including raising a private army…
Right. I promise to be (a bit) less cynical at the party!
Re 25, John, “And before anyone says anything there is a long tradition of officers writing for money while still on active service.”
And there is a long tradition of Conservative governments doing anything they can to prevent them. It just goes to show the moral climate of this country that Labour have created that because one wrong doer gets away with something everyone else must be allowed to.
re 30, Icarus “Simon Hoggart in today’s Guardian - maybe with the Tories failing to move out of their heartlands in the country and failing in parliament, is now the time to start backing Labour again?”
What on the basis of a Guardian opinion piece? Get real!
Re 36, SBS “Yes, we do need that IPOD back. (It’s a better excuse than WMD, as we know Iran has the IPOD.)”
CPI just printed @ 3.1% (RPI @ 4.7%) - The MPC letter due @ 10.00 am !
Re 37, Redflump, “That poor bloke is going to get crucified when he gets back to his ship. He will be known as Mr Bean for the rest of his career!”
Which is about 10 minutes, but is also why he should have been debriefed properly and told to shut up about certain things.
Re 42, Gladstone, what this blog,
http://aconservatives.blogspot.com/
?
Couldn’t possibly do that, it would be just too showy!
UK CPI for March has just come in at 3.1%, which means the BoE will have to write a letter of explanation to Brown and almost guarantees a May rate rise. The RPI came in 4.8%, the highest level since July 1991. Oops…
48 - Correction - the ‘Dear Gordon’ letter due @ 10.30
44 - see 18.
You also mention Boris Berezovsky. Loathsome man! I note that his recent comments about funding a coup in Russia have been roundly condemned by the opposition in Russia. The Tory MP Mark Field, in whose constituency Litvinenko died, also had a pop at Berezovsky. Yet the media love Berezovsky and are very keen on printing every titbit he makes up about conspiracies. How did Berezovsky ever get British Citizenship?
51 etc. Is the letter public?
53 … when Al-Fayed is consistently denied it?
I see that Lord Trimble is expected to confirm that he will be joining the Conservative Party benches in the House of Lords.
Potential Shadow Cabinet role for him in the near future?
I would say I called it right months ago, when suggesting that the entire membership of the Monetary Policy Committee should be forced to resign. They are all a bunch of useless idiots. With interests far below where they should be because of their desperate desire to flood the UK with cheap cash causing an inflationary bubble. May be we can sue the committee for causing high house prices!
Completely Completely Off Thread - Voting Systems for obscure elections:
Apologies, but I wonder if anybody here knows which voting system is meant to be used for Church of England elections to the Parochial Church Council (should there need to be a vote). Having glanced through the Church Representation Rules I can’t see that it is specified. Essentially you potentially have 4 spaces to fill and 6 people nominated. The one time previously I have seen it done through FPTP in a single multi-member ward (each elector has 4 votes, can only vote for each person once, 4 people with the most votes win) but I wonder if there is an ‘official’ or ’suggested’ voting system. Much appreciated if anybody knows,
57. Well in my view it certainly calls into question the decision of the MPC to hold rates earlier this month. The March hold was to some extent understandable given the equity market selloff at the end of February (though Blanchflower’s call for a cut was eccentric to say the least) but the case for a hike in April was in my view very strong.
The risk now is that the BoE looks behind the curve and that the breach of the 3% level by the CPI will reinforce inflationary expectations among the public. This may ultimately require the BoE to tighten policy further than would otherwise have been necessary.
Stuart @ 32: Oops! I think that actually means I buggered it up. Hold on and I’ll correct it
[53] Apologies - I’m getting too old for speed-reading
58 I understood that the House Rules for the CofE require preferential voting. I made them do it at our Church once, and was very unpopular as a consequence. They even made me carry out the Count, because no-one knew how to do it.
Thereafter we reverted to the more traditional CofE way of doing things - if there are not enough people, some get leaned on, and if there are too many, some get co-opted. Seems to work just as well…..
The last MPC meeting that minutes are published for (March) had Blanchflower voting for a CUT - might his appointment be used to bash GB again ?
59 “…the case for a hike in April was in my view very strong.”
Fred, I agree. However the timing for a rate rise in April was too sensitive, given the coming elections in early May.
The MPC may be technically “independent”, but pressure can always be bought to bear . . .
62 - we had an election at work a couple of years ago for a staff forum. There were two reps to be elected in my department, and three candidates. The system used was FPTP with ONE vote. I called ACAS, who said this was wrong. I informed the HR Director who said “I have been organising elections for X years, and it is always done this way.”
so we basically have a real interest rate of 0.8%. No wonder the economy is zipping along; a reversion to long term mean would clearly crucify large swathes of the economy so now the BoE has created a situation it likely cannot control without significant interest rate hikes. It won’t do this as the pain will be too great so prepare for a weaselly get about how inflation will fall significantly in the near future. It won’t.
63. There does seem to be good reason to question one or two of the recent MPC appointments, certainly.
64. There’s no evidence I am aware of that the MPC has been so swayed at any time in the past, nor do I think they were this time.
“You say “ignore” mruk ,but The Herald gave prominence to the mruk poll whish showed Labour well ahead of the SNP. Curious or sinister? ”
I thought it was Scottish Opinion giving Lab ahead.
MRUK also has a poll for North Scotland. I think if their figures are right, SNP would barely have enough list candidates to fill all the seats they would win.
62 - Well that was kinda why I was asking - I think that it should be STV, but given that I am standing, and there will be a vote, I am loathe to suggest it given how unpopular it will be. (Beside the fact that I dont want to have to do the count if I am a candidate, but nobody else will have a clue how it works
)
66 - I agree, the MPC will have had a few days to prepare the letter, they will also had an advance estimate of CPI/RPI at their meeting last week (although this could have been too low of course) so they might need to do some explaining why they didn’t hike in April.
There must be thousands of elections every year organised by people who do not have a clue… PTAs, parent governors, school councils, work forums, PCCs, various committees…
Lennon, many are called, but few are chosen to get a quota. So declare four (any four) to be elected, and co-opt the other two. And be very grateful that your congregation is so enthusiastic and diligent.
68 - So did mruk Andrea.
Couple of stories in the Scottish press. Labour claim that there support is strengthening in their heartlands and the SNP had to delay the distibution of 1,000,000 mini-manifestos (which was supposed to happen on Sunday) due to ‘technical and political’ problems.
70. Tomorrow’s BoE minutes will certainly make for interesting reading. There is some talk of a 0.5% rise next month now…Cantorspreadfair has 0.25% priced in, with about a 20% chance of another 0.25% in June.
Interesting activity on Betfair at present. Somebody has been laying Gordon at 1.3 for sometime now.
If its Peter the Punter I claim my 50p.
[65] I take it your HR Director is Japanese - that’s how they do it (or used to).
I assume that any rise in May would be after the elections ?
73. Max “Labour claim that there support is strengthening in their heartlands”
Not sure if it’s so good for Labour in the end. Yes, it should see them home in their safe seats, but if their support is not strenghtening in marginals, it can be a bloody night for them anyway
72 - Thanks for the suggestion, but not quite that simple… will explain later…
Of course inflation is now at its highest since before 1991.
Ouch.
77. May 10 is next BoE decision.
The Reverend C.L.Dodgson proposed a system like STV, except that surpluses and transfers were determined by the elected or eliminated candidate - an opportunity for an exercise in charity?
78 - I agree. What they were saying was that they were no longer as worried about seats like Paisly South which is 11th on the SNP target list. I would be astonished if they didn’t lose a number of marginal seats but if they can keep the losses down to around 10 constituencies they could still emerge as the largest party.
3.1% is hardly meltdown people!
77/81 - The MPC could always hike between meetings
84 - 4.8% RPI is pretty tough for nurses limited to 2%
85. Nice thought…but sadly very unlikely.
87 - I know but markets very frisky at the moment - perhaps more likely would be a 50bp hike in May.
84 no, but it’s 50% above target and inflation expectations are going up, so people will start to accept price rises in shops and start thinking they need a bigger pay rise.
The target was changed so that it would be easier to meet and it’s still gone over. RPI is the nearest thing to a measure of real inflation for most people and that’s at 4.8%. Such low real interest rates cannot help but cause a bubble in a number of sectors.
so after ten years we’ve got higher inflation higher borrowing and higher youth unemployment, thanks Gordon.
Morning all :). I hope the book launch goes well this afternoon, Mike, and that everyone enjoys the party. I’m sorry I can’t be there.
oh and real interest rates are 0.45% not the 0.8% I stated previously (in my head the 0.25% rise has already been discounted). Interest rate of 6% would probably do it but that would cause a lot of pain and exporters would really suffer.
Kingbongo - for all of the present difficulties - we are a world away from 2 recessions in 10 years, 3 1/2 million unemployed etc etc. Let us just keep our feet on the ground - we aren’t Zimbabwe yet
re 84, Redflump, 4.8% on the other hand is hardly brilliant is it?
When it hit 4.4% (RPI that is) in January it was a 15 year high. See:
http://aconservatives.blogspot.com/2007/01/inflation-hits-15-year-high.html
Hope you all have a good time this avo - I’ll be trying to find a tv in Amsterdam showing the cricket
84 - core CPI is only 1.9% - so everything is ok.
83. Max, do you have a link?
I thought you were referring to 20% type of majorities. But Paisly South is 10% maj. If it’s just spin, I’m not sure what the reasons behind it are (I suppose that if you’re neck and neck in 1 seat you shouldn’t say you’ve already won it as your disillused supporters can decide to stay at home)
95. Yep, and if you take out all the items that are going up, the index is negative! amazing !
Which is why Gordon is absolutely right to be hard on public sector pay - no matter what the opposition says.
98. I’m sure all those public sector workers will be thrilled to discover the crucial part they are playing in bringing down inflation by accepting a real-terms pay cut.
real pay cuts for nurses and firemen and teachers and council workers doesn’t sound like a great way to get out the payroll vote. I’m afraid however it’s spun this knocks the economic competence meme that Labour have spun for so long.
the great thing about ‘core’ CPI is it excludes energy and food - what’s more ‘core’ than that!!! The whole CPI measure is mad.
Re 94 I’ve never had any problem finding a tv in Amsterdam myself
Enjoy the party everyone!
101. Heh heh - what ever floats your boat
Anybody know whats happened to the IG Index politician popularity market this week?
Cheers
Alex
[100] Yup, if only computers were edible everything would be rosy.
Re 95, Blue Spartacus, people experience RPI, not CPI core. So they will feel scr*wed.
RPI is now the highest it has been since july 1991. You will know we are in deep trouble if it gets to be the highest it has been since 1990.
For more see my blog,
http://aconservatives.blogspot.com/
I suppose you would just give in to all the pay demands then?
98/106 - I was joking !
Enjoy the party everyone.
Re 108, blue Spartacus,
Sorry, didn’t quite spot that!
re 107, No, but then I wouldn’t do a lot of things Labour have done either.
Out of interest the old target measure RPIX reached 3.9% in March, the highest since September 1992 and up nearly 2% since December 2005. This is the steepest inflation rise since the spike in Q2 of 1990…
110 - haven’t sussed how to do an ironic smiley !
112. Is there a smiley list anywhere ?
?
107 - In the context of previous pay rounds and the public sector pensions settlement does the current insistence on a below-inflation public sector pay deal right now not strike you as gesture politics? I would have thought that it was the wrong kind of gesture to make in the context of trying to shore up core support as well (certainly the party in Scotland cant be happy that they only just managed to get the endorsement of the Scottish TUC).
96 - Afraid not Andrea. It was in the Scottish edition of the Times. They also claim the SNP won’t make a break through in Glasgow.
113 - You missed
116. Max, the Glasgow thing was claimed by Labour or by The Times? It’s interesting because SSP was strong in Glasgow and if they’re losing votes, where is the former SSP going? I thought SNP, but maybe all those “businessmen supporing SNP” thing is not appealing to former SSP voters.
111. Yes depends which measure and the consequential “basket of goods” in the inflation definition.
The Retail Prices Index without any exclusions i.e. Mortgage rates is actually 4.8%
This is a worry as the economy is going to have to put up interest rates, thus today’s rise in sterling.
A bad day for Brown, the opposition are also calling for a vote in confidence on the pensions issue. Of course people like NP will vote for him in any confidence vote but it could provide interesting ammunition in a GE, if and when Brown is leader!
ONS figures for economy:
http://www.statistics.gov.uk/instantfigures.asp
“the opposition are also calling for a vote in confidence”
Clearly a measure to firm up support for Brown in the PLP.
120. Cons running scared of Miliband ?
120. A more significant confidence vote can be expected in May.
119. This is a worry as the economy is going to have to put up interest rates, thus today’s rise in sterling - sorry meant B of E will have to put interest rates up! It would then be a worry for the economy.
Can anyone take this all seriously? One last blitz of reforms to ensure he goes out with a bang? The phrase dead duck is insufficient in describing Blair. There has been a rotting corpse in Downing St for months, yet nobody has had the decency to throw it out. Not even the man who wants to take over! If these weren’t people dealing with daily life or death issues, our national reputation and our children’s future, I’d be laughing out loud. Tony always said he didn’t want to be dragged out of office like Mrs T; well at least she knew when the game was up and allowed the country to move on.
Remember the advice to Blair on the manner of his departure? To leave his audience wanting more, with everyone (except Gordon) desperate for a nice encore. Actually he is the equivalent of a tired old rocker, whose lost his voice and his enegry, with the crowd booing him off the stage, asking for their money back, but he keeps on performing in total ignorance if only to maintain his denial of lost stardom and of course, collect the royalties.
Re 120, Johnathan, ““the opposition are also calling for a vote in confidence”
Clearly a measure to firm up support for Brown in the PLP. ”
yep!
re 121 Jamie, “120. Cons running scared of Miliband ? ;)”
No, we just don’t waht any danger of Labour picking someone electable by accident
It’s worth reading the BoE letter and Gordo’s reply - the most interesting bit is the admission by Gordon that he blew a lot of money on inflationary pay rises which he is now trying to grab back and also the Bank’s surprise at continued strength in consumer spending - how can they have been surprised by this? They do say they will do what it takes to get inflation back down so 50 basis points must be a possibility in May (albeit a long shot)
the big felt tip used by Gordon to write with is a bit weird as well.
I don’t think the tories are running scared of milliband. It is actually in their interests for him to be damaged by the the ferrets that will be in Labour’s sack - come Blair’s announcement!
I reckon Blair will go at 12 o’clock on the the friday after the local elections (Next Day). This will be to ensure Labour’s probable defeat in the super thursday elections is pushed out of the number one news slot! It would be a good way to bury bad news!!!
91. Exporters would surely be more worried about what happens to the exchange rate. Admittedly high interest rates might push up sterling as overseas investors sought to profit from a pick up in yield, but the slowdown in the domestic economy might scare away inward investment. Sterling has been to strong for to long, higher interest rates in the US haven’t stopped the dollar from falling against the Euro.
Higher interest rates are more likely to hit companies exposed to domestic demand, like retailers and the construction industry. Also many companies aren’t as highly geared as they used to be, that is one reason, why private equity keeps buying up quoted companies.
126. He only has the use of one eye!
It probably makes it easier to read to be fair!
The only thing that impresses me about Brown is the fact that he lost one of his eyes and it did not hold him back! I’m impressed by that, he has gone along way inspite of that! For the same reason Blunkett is impressive in that respect! In hindsight i can understand why he was kept in a government appartment in 2005. He is obviously a sitting duck as a terrorist target!
But the metaphorical blow job of Labour must end there!
127: would hardly bury the bad news of the election defeat, given the headlines would likely be “Blair quits after mauling from electorate” or “Blair quits as Scots turn to SNP”. Well, that might be how the public perceive it anyway. It’s hardly going to be “Blair finally announces his departure” - “…and in today’s other news, a donkey died - and Labour suffered massive losses in the local and Scottish elections”.
OK, that might be how the Daily Mirror sees it…
124. If Blair is not just marking time, then he must be really scarred of Brown screwwing things up! It’s either that or he is looking for a legacy - He has nothing tangeble.
130. I know what you mean! LOL!!!
What you will get is PM interviews etc etc. I do think the elections will be mentioned but Blair will want to talk about his whole tenure in office!
Expoerters won’t like the fact we have just gone through $2 a pound for the first time, since 1992.
I wonder if there will be any defections in the last few days of the Scottish elections. Bet they (SNP) have something up their sleve for the last few days as a demonstration of momentum!
127. The number one lesson in burying bad news is to do with an unrelated news story. If you do it with something related you will simply get them reported together. e.g. “Blair leaves amidst Labour meltdown”
120. I think the real purpose is just to draw more attention to the pensions furor. The Cons are having a drip-drip-drip approach to try to erode Brown’s image as a safe pair of hands with the economy.
A good summary of the Conservative target of Elmbridge BC, Surrey - a possible gain from NOC.
http://www.yourlocalguardian.co.uk/news/elmbridgenews/display.var.1327467.0.battle_lines_drawn_for_may_elections.php
Much will depend on turnout here, especially in the 5 or 6 wards which could change hands, where it can be as low as 25%, and how low the already derisory Labour vote drops , whether more of it switches to Con, rather than (other)middle of the road alternatives, or joins the apathy vote.
So far, have seen a couple of Residents posters but most activity is doorstep and leafleting. RAs are fairly complacent about postal votes, which probably cost them 1 seat last year.
Con may lose one seat to RAs (Molesey E) and may need to gain from Lib Dem to ensure overall control this year - both the seats LDs are defending look vulnerable but Labour is not standing in one of them, Weybridge North.
UKIP are not standing in Claygate where they polled 63 votes in the recent 99 vote LD by-election hold in March, so this might give C a slight boost, but Parish voting in this ward may complicate the district poll.
Does anyone know if the C leader Roy Taylor is challenging Nick Skellett for leadership of Surrey CC as well ?
53 “his recent comments about funding a coup in Russia have been roundly condemned by the opposition in Russia. ”
What opposition?
“How did Berezovsky ever get British Citizenship? ”
The same way that every other Tahm, Deep & Hari get it.
Re: 137 - I have some information on events at Surrey CC through a very good friend who works there. Apparently, relations between the Executive and the Senior Management Team (led by the Chief Exec) have all but collapsed following a series of disastrous initiatives.
The view is that Nick Skellett is going nowhere slowly and has been all too easily led by the nose by senior officers. Skellett has been challenged in the past by Andrew Povey, who leads a significant minority faction within the Tory group which is more Right-wing than some of the current leadership.
Skellett threw a bone to the Right-wingers when he sent back the first officer Budget with a Council Tax rise of 4.9% and asked for further cuts (the final rise was 4.4%). The proposed new set of cuts have included school maintenance and this has been widely leaked to the local Surrey press.
Roy Taylor is one of the 2005 intake (Povey was elected in 1993) and no one knows how much support he has within the Conservative group as a whole. Skellett and “the Oxted Mafia” as they are known within the authority, have run the show since 1997.
The Executive may be up for some changes apparently - Andrew Crisp is highly thought of and seen as a potential future leader and MP.
Now, what if Blair resigned the day before the election?
O/T - The Order implementing the new Parliamentary Constituencies recommended by the Boundary Commission report was approved by the House of Commons last night.
It now goes to the House of Lords.
137 It is most unlikely that the Conservatives can gain enough seats for an overall majority in Elmbridge . As you say Molesey East is a likely loss and the defector from Walton Res in Ambleside is by no means certain to retain his seat . Most likely outcome is Conservatives remaining as largest party with minority control .
140. Interesting - It would be without precident! Don’t think it would change anybodies mind though! But you would get large profiles of Blair and the interviews. Would that be a good thing? Doubt it would be in Scotland!!! England & Wales - probably not!
The only thing i can really think of is it might enable stay at home Labour voters on certain issues go to the polls! But i would doubt it!
It would shaft Brown though! He would get blamed for scotlands likely rejection!!!
Hello all… back from Holiday… and the news that David Miliband has announced he won’t run.
Glad I’ve not wasted the last two weeks reading all that speculation!
144 Poor Mike… Won’t be a good way to start his party. Perhaps he can drown his sorrows. Can’t say he wasn’t warned though.
70. Blue Spartacus: “I agree, the MPC will have had a few days to prepare the letter, they will also had an advance estimate of CPI/RPI at their meeting last week (although this could have been too low of course) so they might need to do some explaining why they didn’t hike in April.”
Inflation responds to interest rates with an 18 month to 2 year lag. Hence interest rates in April 2007 will be influencing inflation in late 2008/early 2009, rather than in May 2007. They will hike only if there is a chance of inflation in 2008, not in response to political considerations or to cover for BoE mistakes in the past.
The “mistake” if that’s what it was, was to have cut rates from 4.75% to 4.5% in mid 2005 (after the general election).
100. kingbongo: “the great thing about ‘core’ CPI is it excludes energy and food - what’s more ‘core’ than that!!! The whole CPI measure is mad.”
The target inflation is headline CPI, not core CPI. But the reason that central bankers like to look at core CPI is precisely because they are trying to influence inflation in 18 months to 2 years time. Food and energy prices are often down to weather and short term crises. The spike in energy prices last month for instance, was down to the markets thinking that the hostage situation might lead to war. As it happens, the hostages got released (so it was a temporary phenomenon).
Central bankers like to filter out this “noise”. Imagine if a drought this year hiked food prices and hence headline CPI - you would only hike rates in response if you were sure that similar drought conditions would in place in 18 months time. If you hiked willy nilly, and ended up with lots of rain in 18 months time, you’d end up with deflation in food prices, plus deflation in other prices due to the hike, which would impact overall CPI (and if the CPI falls too low, you also need to write a letter to the BoE).
There is nothing any central bank can do about the weather or international crises (despite what many on here seem to think!). They can only really influence the elements in the core CPI.
Regarding the rate decision in April, I imagine the BoE held rates in April because they are uncertain about how the US economy will do in 2008. Traditionally an American slowdown slows the entire world. Even if it doesn’t (for the first time since the Great Depression), a slowdown in the American economy means a slowdown in demand for oil, which will impact prices, which will impact CPI.
Another chicken eh?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/politics/6563747.stm
Gordon has stitched up the labour party! I wonder if any Blairites will jump ship to another party if Brown as looks likely take over?
139 Conservative travails in Surrey may spill over into Mole Valley and it is possible that the Conservatives may lose overall control which they won last year for the first time . One of their newly elected councillors defected to the LibDems and the council is now Con 22 LibDem 16 Ind 3 . This year one seat is vulnerable to the LibDems and Ashstead Village to Independents , loss of both with no compensatory gains would leave them as largest party but without overall control .
144, 145, 147: Oh dear, not another doomed attempt by Millibland to rule himself out of the leadership battle…
When are the phone lines going in?
146. You make a lot of assumptions - if the us economy slows down then it does not necessarily equate that oil will go down. Opec could cut production, US forces or more likely iserali forces may attack Iran. India and china due to large growth in their respected economies for things like car use etc is not just going to go away!
The other problem is cost push inflation, people seeing their incomes eroded and wanting higher pay deals! Once inflation starts creeping it is downhill! In 1990, they thought that was a temporary thing as well. I will be in the shit if we have another recession, so hopefully it won’t happen……………………..
And lo it came to pass that Miliband went from 5.6 to 11s on betfair..
El Gordo went from 1.3 to 1.25.
Snowflake - CPI does not include council tax - why are public sector workers not given pay rises to include this rising cost ?*
*Apart from those lucky enough to live in one of the conservative areas where council tax is falling or frozen…
133. “Expoerters won’t like the fact we have just gone through $2 a pound for the first time, since 1992.”
We don’t export much to the dollar-zone. Most exports are to the euro-zone and our exchange rate against the euro has been stable (more stable than when we were in the ERM).
I am surprised the Trimble announcement has not seen greater debate:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/northern_ireland/6561871.stm
What a marvellous candidate he would be for Mayor of London. He certainly has the experience from being first minister!
153 - London has a lot of colourful fairs and parades. I hear he has extensive experience of organising and attending parades.
150. Everytime the US economy slows, demand for oil falls (as they consume an inordinate amount of oil). The Indian and Chinese economies are small and crucially dependant on the US economy. Hence if the US economy slows, it’s likely to take the Chinese and Indians with it. It’s only Europe that has a degree of independence.
As for Opec cuts, Opec is notoriously bad at enforcing cuts, and they are hampered by the fact that oil inventories are at an all-time high (i.e. consuming countries have been stock-piling). And some of the biggest producers, Russia (the world no 2 producer) and Norway (the world no 3 producer), are not part of OPEC. The world is very different from how it was in 1973.
139/142. Thanks both.
C overall control in Elmbridge more likely in 2008 than this year.
I would expect C to gain Hersham North from RA, given a 250-odd C majority last year, but this would be cancelled out if RA regained Molesey E.
Other seats may not change but I would be surprised if C did not gain at least two others, possibly 1 from LD.
Including the Ambleside Walton defector who being an ex-gents barber and 8 year incumbent is better known than his former RA colleague, who works more with social housing tenants who may not vote.
The RAs are not as well dug in in Walton/Hersham as they are in Molesey and Ditton where the tradition dates back well beyond 1974 reorganisation.
Local press reported Roy Taylor as considering standing against Skellett, with nominations closing 13 April. Unclear whether for an internal party election as C group leader or the position of Council Leader at the annual meeting - when other parties and the independents could vote/abstain.
The state of the roads (SCC under Skellett took back delegated responsibility from Elmbridge so it is a particular bone of contention there) and failure to manage highway contractors is another issue affecting Skellett’s popularity. In Elmbridge 2 adult education centres are proposed for closure.
153 Having lead his party to a big defeat in 2005 losing his own seat and 3 others in the process , don’t you think he is a little overrated .
We don’t export much to the dollar-zone
err yes we do - go back to your briefing notes. Large amounts of international trade is dollar denominated even where it is not directly with the USA. There is a reason 60% of the world’s foreign exchange reserves are held in dollars you know.
you either cut and paste partial statistics to give the impression of ‘proving’ a point or you make ridiculous sweeping claims that don’t bear the least examination.
I do applaud your ability though to convince some posters you have the vaguest notion that you undestand what you’re talking about.