France - now it gets really dirty
April 19th, 2007
Can Le Pen eat into the rightist vote?
The above story shows what could be the final attack by the far-right Le Pen and on Nicolas Sarkozy as France prepares for the first round of voting on Sunday.
For if the FN leader is to do as well as he did last time and get into the final run off he has to take votes from the front-runner who continues to hold up reasonably well in the polls. This is a tough hard fight.
For Sego Royal the Le Pen move might help her to prevent the splintering of the left vote that caused her predecessor in 2002 to fail to make it into the top two run-off positions.
In the betting Nicolas Sarkozy has tightened a touch to 0.53/1 while royal has moved to 3.2/1. I still think that this is closer than the betting odds suggest and that there’s value in Royal.
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If you think that she is now a certainty to reach the final two then then Spreadfair spread market is giving the closest thing to a free bet that there is
Under the terms of this market ten points is allocated to the runner-up in the election and 25 points to the winner. The current Royal price is 10.4. So assuming she is still there for the final your maximum loss on a £10 stake would be £4. If she ends up as winner you would get £150. Her price, anyway, will soar if she does come second on Sunday so you will be able to get out then.
Mike Smithson
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I thought the French didn’t worry about people private lives - and if they did it was the spicier the better?
Mike, go to bed! It’s 4 am. My excuse is that I’m jet-lagged and can’t sleep.
As you say though, that’s seriously dirty. I wonder how this subject came up. There’s many a story generated by an interviewer thinking of a clever question. If the interviewer dreamed (?) this one up by asking about it, then it’s almost fair enough. Le Pen will have known what the headlines were likely to be, but can reasonably claim to be giving a straight answer, although of course he always had the option of refusing to comment. What it always looks like is that Le Pen decided to make these comments and planned how and when to make them. That may or may not have been the case this time.
1 - you’re right. This has no legs and Royal can’t go anywhere with it since her own private life is messier.
O/T
**** STOP PRESS ****
A statement by the Environment Secretary.
I’m future PM David Miliband
Whose been asked once again to say “Will I stand?”
Now I won’t be seduced
Which is really reduced
To I won’t stand unless and until I stand.
Stjohn………”or until Labour take such a pasting in the elections that it gives me permission to stand.”.. except it doesn’t scan
O/T - WA Poll
The Beaufort Omnibus Poll mentioned earlier will be published in ‘Wales on Sunday’ on errr Sunday. Should be widely leaked on Saturday
1/2- Yes it is true that some blogs last week spread a “rumour about rumours” about Sarkozy’s marriage. It was not picked up by the press because nobody seems to be sure what the rumour really is : most point to new difficulties between Nicolas and Cecilia Sarkozy but nothing is really clear.
Le Pen have deliberately chosen this ugly attack in his very violent anti-Sarkozy campaign. I really can’t understand just how leftist journalists and politicians still talk with a straight face of a “clear collusion and signs of common work” between Le Pen and Sarkozy.
Le Pen is the only one that can use this kind of argument:he is generally thought to be faithful to his second wife married 20 years ago (alas, the first one did a nude photo session in the French edition of playboy!!).
Both Bayrou and Royal have enough reasons to stay quiet about that kind of things… A tacit non-agression pact therefore exists between the three biggest candidates.
French people don’t “worry” about such things…as long as they are quiet!
Polls of the day - Some help for the prediction competition ?
BVA - Lowest Bayrou score since February
sarkozy 29(+1) royal 25(+1) le pen 13(-1) bayrou 15(-3)
2nd round sarkozy 53 / royal 47
Ipsos - Sarkozy back to 30
sarkozy 30(+0.5) royal 23,50(-1) bayrou 18,5(=) le pen 13 (-0.5)
2nd round sarkozy 53.5 / royal 46.5
Update of my poll of polls
sarkozy 28,25 royal 24,00 bayrou 18,25 le pen 13,67
I think that this is really the lowest form of politics. The only time someone “deserves” this type of treatment is if they are being a blatant hypocrite in their public statements!
Sorry O/T Cameron confirms Scottish policy Vote Conservative Get Labour http://www.scotsman.com/scotland.cfm?id=600592007 . He confitmed the Tories commitment to the Union would mean that in a hung parliament Conservative MSP’s would prop up a Labour executive to stop the SNP taking power .
10 - what you mean like the LDs have done!?
12 Propping up is not the same as sharing power .
Your presumption DM is immense,
And I warn that if you’ve any sense,
You won’t mess with me,
The mighty GB,
You’re better off perched on that fence.
13. Jamie F. Touche!(cant do acute accents)
9- Precisely, Sarkozy had the good idea to refuse to discuss the subject during the campaign.
Mark - your link doesn’t work - try this one: http://thescotsman.scotsman.com/scotland.cfm?id=600592007
Interesting apology from Cameron - for saying nasty things about Brown. - Is he looking for a cabinet post under Brown? Would be the first Tory MP for Witney to switch sides!b
should of course say “wouldn’t be the first”
stjohn - I preferred yours.
I’d like to see what John Reid, Charles Clarke or Michael Meacher have to say about it all.
16 Yes apologies missed out thescotsman
Yvette Cooper has declared for Harriet H in the Deputy race.
Former Home Secretary Clarke
Feared he’d be left in the dark;
So he asked Milliband
If he’d consent to stand;
But DM was afraid of the shark.
Yes, very unpleasant and mysterious too - surely this won’t win votes? The only thing I can think of is that Le Pen thinks he gets votes as ‘the man who says outrageous things that nobody else would dare’ - question the Holocaust, for instance. But I’m not sure there are many people who admire scurrilous gossip-mongers and want to make them President.
Talking of extremists, interesting to see the BNP leader coming up with a new excuse for the Holocaust: it was a ‘rule of warfare’ that you could kill 50 civilians if partisans shot a soldier, see, so since the partisans killed 10,000 Germans that could account for the Germans killing at least 5 million Jews, couldn’t it?
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article1672185.ece
This is the cuddly new moderate BNP, eh? Now as we try not to discuss policy here but just electoral prospects, what I wonder is whether people who vote BNP are generally unaware of this sort of thing, or they genuinely don’t mind and think it perfectly compatible with patriotism to make excuses for Hitler. It affects how one campaigns against them.
22. Nick, maybe Le Pen thinks he can win over some of the social conservatives (who would probably vote for him over the others anyway.
Interesting article in the Times about GB having the wiggle room to scrap ID cards. I am not fussed one way or the other about ID cards personally - what do you think Nick? Could this be one of GB’s big changes in approach?
Unfortunately Nick, most of the people who vote BNP really dont give a damn about the Holocaust, and in fact only really know about WWII as something in films that their Grandad used to whitter on about.
22 “Talking of extremists, interesting to see the BNP leader coming up with a new excuse for the Holocaust . . .”
Very inventive in their excuses, these BNP people.
Pity that they can’t use some of this energy in inventing a way to cure themselves of this racist madness of theirs.
Le Pen plays dirty politics? Oh dear. Couldn’t happen here could it?
(Well only on a day with a Y in it)
Le Pen does have a serious chance of getting into the second round, but then so does Bayrou.
Unlike Bayrou, it is certain Le Pen would lose the second round.
Re 4, StJohn, Yes
Re 13, JamesF Very good
Not sure I have enough confidence in Ségo to take up Mike’s suggestion on the spread bets (I don’t think it’ll happen, but there’s enough of a chance of Bayrou or Le Pen making it to the deuxieme tour to put me off that).
Be that as it may - what do the panel think will happen to Sarko’s odds after the results of the premiere tour are announced on Sunday? My assumption had been that they would lengthen, especially if Bayrou were to make it through; but do people think that’s correct? And would it still be the case if it proves to be a Sarko-Ségo run-off, or would the assumption be that it would be a walkover for Sarko? (obviously if it’s Sarko-Le Pen Sarko’s odds will shorten to about 1/100!).
Re 22, Nick, the BNP are saying what?
From an electoral point of view they ought to shut up about it, as it it is not an electoral issue.
Mind you it is handy for the rest of us.
Nick - actually it would allow you to kill only 500,000 civilians. If it allowed killing one then it would be too many.
These “rules of warfare” - these days called “rules of engagement” are dangerous get out clauses that often seem to allow unreasonable activities in conflicts. They should be open to more scrutiny.
24. Most people in this country only know WW2 in films and what their granddad whittered on about.
Look I understand you wan to do the BNP and their voters down but for gods sake do them down on something substantive instead of caricature.
Re: France, no it probably won’t do either Sarkozy or Le Pen much good but it won’t do any much harm either but le Pen hasn’t said it for a laugh. There is calculation somewhere even if he’s got the equation wrong.
29- Even 1/100 on sarkozy beating le pen would be extremely generous, knowing that le pen has precisely zero chance of winning.
I think the present odds are based on the current assumption of a sarkozy/royal matchup. i would not expect huge movements if this matchup is confirmed.
22 Of course Nick, you are correct. However, you are preaching to the converted here.
Please pass the message to working class ex-Labour voters who have been undercut in wages, priced out of housing and pushed to the back of queues for schools.
According to Maguire’s column in Newstatesman, Amicus Press Officer Catherine Bithell will work as Cruddas’ spin doctor in the deputy campaign.
re 16/17 I think we can already say two Tory MPs have switched sides. Just that one changed party, the other decided to change himself and, he hopes, his party.
33 Have to disagree ever so slightly with you, Chris, as regards the odds. The current price must surely have factored in the small but nevertheless real risk that Bayrou makes it through to the final, which of course he can win. They would also allow a small margin for the more remote possibility that Royal beats Sarko in the final. His price must therefore shorten after round 1, if he’s successful - to about 1.33 (1/3) I guess.
You may not have been at the party but I can assure you that you were toasted there. Many warm words were said about your highly informative missives, particularly by Sarko backers.
Of course, if he bombs, the hit squad will be on the first Eurostar, but don’t let it worry you.
Sante!
Hi Peter
Hope you laid off on Joe’s Edge for a handsome profit.
Re: 33 - Not sure I agree with you, Chris. A lot will depend on the vote shares and the perception of momentum. If Sarkozy is clearly (5% or more) ahead of his rivals, then I think he will be fine.
If the margin is much smaller against Royal (say 1-3%), then Sego will be able to claim progress against the polls and I’m sure she will be perceived to have momentum. The same will be true if Sarkozy wins well and Bayrou comes second.
To use a football analogy, Sarkozy is the team that has finished in the top play-off position. They’ve shown the form consistently and should win but that doesn’t always happen as they are there to be shot at.
re 33 and others. yes, surely depends on the figures. The polls consistently indicate a clear but modest lead for the right if the expected run off happens. Sego could make the run off but in a situation in which the votes are clearly stacking up against her. In which case the Betfair price could drift rather than come in as one would expect. Of course, the converse could also happen. As usual, Mike has identified a very good value bet, as almost any conceivable result in which Sego gets through will not leave her with virtually no chance of turning things round. But there’s still the risk of it all going wrong this week.
Martin
No, I was so sure he would run a big race I only laid off a small amount. I thought I was for in for a real tongue lashing at the Party but in fact one or two people made money on JE simply by laying him off to an all green position. They pleaded for me and my sentence was reduced to mild mocking. Lucky, eh?
Agree with you on the French elections. I recall Cheltboy (who has been quiet of late, so I trust all is well?) telling me that the French tend to make their minds up in the last few days, so I’m keeping my options open.
Not sure about Mike’s recommendation. It looks sound, but you couldn’t entirely rule out a Sarko/Bayrou final yet.
I don’t know whether anyone has commented on this or whether it is interesting, but:
a) The BBC website now no longer has a “Politics” subsection, as far as I can see
b) in PMQs this week, the camera angle on Blair seems to show that there is no-one sitting around him; he looks all alone. A political cameraman?
37- Thanks for the toasts. And well, I’ll try to avoid the Gare du Nord if Sarkozy is not the winner…
37-39- OK, let me rephrase my analysis : the odds should not change if the votes pretty much confirm the polls (around 4/5 points lead over royal).
If a royal/sarkozy matchup do appear with either a wider lead than expected or opposingly a very narrow result (or even Royal in the lead), the odds should react accordingly.
I’m more and more convinced that Bayrou won’t reach the second round : his score has stabilized 6 points under royal’s on average and the BVA poll this morning is very bad for him. More than that, his support is still the softest : according to several pollsters (BVA, IFOP, Ipsos)around half of his potential voters still hesitate to switch, with only 4 days to go… (the percentage is between 20 and 30% for the other big candidates).
Therefore, I really think that only a gigantic surprise concerning le pen’s score would deprive us of a sarkozy/royal matchup
42 I assume you mean BBC News. If so, you may well be on the international version. Either switch to the UK version or “UK politics” can be found under UK.
Chris from Paris, to re-iterate my question from a couple of threads ago (sorry if I missed your reply):
“Are ex-pats more or less likely to turn out? How much would their votes add to the overall % of Sarkozy and Royal? It seems to me that most of the French here intend to vote, and Sarkozy supporters in particular seem to want to turn out which might help distort the result.
So Chris, if Royal wins in France but loses the overall vote, what would be the feeling?”
“Now as we try not to discuss policy here but just electoral prospects, what I wonder is whether people who vote BNP are generally unaware of this sort of thing, or they genuinely don’t mind and think it perfectly compatible with patriotism to make excuses for Hitler.”
One gets quite a good idea in the article of why some people think they have no option but to vote BNP, and I very much doubt if Griffin’s comment about the holocaust will affect their voting intentions. So, no. I think the majority don’t mind.
In the same way, people who vote Sinn Fein aren’t really bothered about the records and activities of that Party’s leaders.
42. There was no-one around Blair; no-one of any real political weight that is. Only Hilary “Hopeless” Armstrong, Hazel “Chipmunk” Blears and the Chief Whip woman, Jacqui Smith (I think).
Can I direct attention briefly to the Scottish elections, on which Hills have put up a couple of interesting markets?
One is: “Will The Scottish Parliament Be Dissolved Within A Year Of The Election On 3rd May 2007?”
It’s 3/1 for a Yes. Surely it’s inevitable if the SNP win? If so, this is a value bet.
They are also offering odds on the number of MSPs for the Greens -
8 = 9/4; 7 = 7/1.
Both the odds against options look good to me, but perhaps our Scottish correspondents would like to comment.
Finally, there was much discussion of the SNP price at the Party, particularly amongst those of us taking the air and the spirits on the beautiful NLC veranda overlooking The Embankment. It was all pretty much along the lines of 5/6 being good value. Particularly noteworthy was the encouragement from one who shall remain nameless but is a respected pollsters for a major polling organisation and an occasional contributor to PB.com.
The exchanges on last night’s threads were also indicative. I’ve had another £100 with Hills this morning.
Re 48 - The filter didn’t like my use of signs , so let me repeat, the odds on the Greens are….
46, Ah but Sean SF are generally considered to be on the left (even though they are not) so the same morality doesn’t apply….obviously.
49 I’ll get there in a minute….
six or less - 4/9
exactly 7 - 7/1
more than 7 - 9/4
I’m tempted by the two odds against options.
50 Quite right, Yokel. It’s perfectly OK to kill people in pusuit of Freedom ,but not of course for the purposes of Repression.
You’d think Sean would know that.
re 48: YouGov currently running rather large Survey on Scottish Elections with all sorts of question, including Voting intentions, Policies, Understanding of Voting methods, Support for Coalitions, and quite a few more. Closes 23rd April at 10am.
47. Hutton was there between Hilary and Hazel. And IIRC (but I’m not 100% sure) Straw was between Blair and the Chief Whip
50 I take that point, but actually my main point is that there are times when people are quite prepared to vote for political leaders with extreme views. Even under Nazi lunatic Tyndall, the likelihood is the BNP would have seen some increase in support since 2000, albeit not as much as under Griffin’s more astute leadership.
Griffin will explain this away to any BNP supporters who are concerned - probably by saying the journalist misquoted him.
re 48. You’d have to be fairly confident that the Greens will get over the threshold of 6% in all of the regions. If not then 1 or 2 is by far the more likely outcome.
re 41 They should still have been buying you a beer for a great tip. Even if not laid off, those following your advice got 25/1 on a horse with, what, a 12/1 change of winning? That’s uncommon value. Given, though, that this site attracts a lot of amateurs like me, we perhaps should be clearer whether our tips are to bet right through to the result or to back/lay and then do the opposite (’cause the odds of the odds changing in a predictable way are very high).
48. The 9/4 for the Conservatives to beat the Lib Dems is also of interest, I think.
The Green Party market is very interesting. Since they have no constituency seats their representation is very sensitive to a fairly small decline in national popularity (they could conceivably end up with 1 seat - as per 1999).
45- Expats voting abroad 820.000 voters, expats coming back to France to vote are supposed to be around 120.000.
Therefore, they represent a total of 940.000 voters out of 44.5 million registrated voters or 2.1%.
2002 election is not directluy comparable but if you take 1995 as reference Chrac beat Jospin among expats by 58.5% to 41.5%. there was only 245.000 registrated expat voters at that time. I f we consider that the recent movement of expats is mainly to anglo-saxon countries we can assume this trend still stands.
If you apply this 58.5/41.5 split to 560.000 votes, (assuming a turnout of 60% (higher than both 1995 and 2002)), the difference would be around 95 000 votes between sarkozy and royal.
Frankly, I cannot see an elction decided by so few voters. Even the notoriously close election of 1974 was decided by 430.000 votes.
A difference under 95 000 votes in the vote excluding expats would mean percentages like 50.1% to 49.9% which seems extremely unlikely.
In the unlikely event you describe (Sarkozy voted in by expats against the majority of French living in France), I think there would be some fuss from the left but the rules are the same for all and expats are not unpopular in France. for example, the idea of a special tax on expats (floated by some socialists in the campaign) was promptly abandoned by Royal : it cost a lot of support among expats and the other voters did not care!
by the way, Peter, I am sure you could make money on the long-term footie markets. I’m going to gather in a few bottles of wine when the Championship is settled, even though this has been a highly fluctuating and unpredictable season.
55. Oh I agree, people vote for the BNP for various reasons, many couldnt give a fiddlers about the Holocaust or the past. What they are looking at is today their sutuation and what they see as the causes.
They may be wrong but categorising them as stupid, ignorant, misguided or just plain racist scum of the earth (you know all the usual talk that comes out) is missing the point. If the BNP are on the rise and thats relative the question should be why.
As you know, some people don’t like the question so don’t liek to answer it because its a rality they dont’ like.
Ironcally enough, I see a great parallel between some of the SF vote in NI and some of the BNP vote, its the victim culture, the always someone elses fault concept.
59- Excuse all those awful typos…
NickP, I’m fairly sure Griffin’s asinine and bizarre remarks about the Holocaust will have little or no effect on the BNP vote - which I am sure is going to go UP.
The other day In Cornwall I was having lunch with a bunch of people, all Labour, Lib Dems types before, maybe Tory, and they ALL confessed (after some wine) that they had toyed with the idea of voting BNP. I hope and believe none of them actually will, but if educated sensible people in all-white, crime-free Cornwall are thinking of voting BNP then I really do worry about the BNP’s vote going WAY up in other areas. Those where your party’s absurd immigration free-for-all has most impacted. And this immigration is why the BNP vote will increase, almost whatever Griffin says.
Incidentally, I never got an answer to that question yesterday. You and I had a heated spat a year or two ago over the rates of net immigration under Labour. I said it had TRIPLED, you said it hadn’t. Now your own Home Office admits that it has TRIPLED. A tiny apology is all that’s needed, Nick, and then we can be the bosom pals we always were.
Re Sarkozy and Royal, and related to the other issue. If she wins France will go down the toilet, economically and possibly racially. Her policies are so insane she will fan the flames of discontent right across the Hexagon - and then we might see a real Fascist, like Le Pen or his daughter, come to power. For the sake of France, everyone French should vote Sarko. And I say that as someone who has previously taken the traditional English pleasure in relative French decline.
60 Well I’d be interested to hear more, Martin. I could only improve on previous performance as a football tipster.
56. Chris, you can win list seats with less than 6% depending on how the votes are split among other parties. For ex Colin Fox won his seat with just 5.4% in 2003
Re: 63 - Sean, I suspect, however, that Sarkozy is much closer to Merkel politically than Cameron
59. Are you saying you think that the current ex-pat vote will be as low as 60 / 40 to Sarkozy? Surely if he wins as little as 60% of the ex-pat vote, given as you say the demographic changes in the constitution of the ex-pat population (number, age, destination, &c), this would be considered a failure on his part? He should surely be looking at closer to 70% - 80%? In which case, there would be more than 200,000 votes in it.
Sean T, I have had similar experiences to yours. In fact, I’m acquainted with a former Conservative Parliamentary candidate who’s even joined the BNP.
56 & 58 - Chris A and Aaron - I seem to be hearing some interest in maybe taking the odds on. I’m surprised, but open-minded.
I have already take the 9/4 on the Conservatives beating the Libdems. It was one of Jack W’s parting suggestions before disappearing into the penumbra.
Sean -The government has no way of accurately measuring emigration. They do it by a passenger survey. There is no need to tell anyone that you have left the country or whether you care likely to come back.
Similarly EU “immigrants” can quite rightly come and go as they please. There is no way of recording how many are actually here at any one time.
What on earth the Labour minister was witterring on in Australia for I have no idea unless it is to try and appease the BNP and you will never be able to appease them enough.
Re 64 have to be another time for detail. Basically I think odds are too thinly spread and take too much account of current table rather than trends. Last year I picked Reading as true favourites well before they become odds-on. Always covering myself on Sheff Utd, this resulted in my biggest ever winnings. This year, much harder and more exciting. But for some time I made it over 90% likely that Derby, Sunderland, Bham or WBA would end up top. So I went green on all of those, trying to take individual odds when they looked on the generous side (again getting in on Sunderland after the trend emerged - so well after the best odds went - but before ‘the pack’). I generally ignored my own judgement about most likely outcome - WBA or Bham and not Derby (my team). Though I thought Sunderland would finish very strongly I judged the run they have had virtually impossible in this league…but still had sense to bet on them just in case!
Sean Fear - does Rik know someone has left the Tories?!
Re 70, Icarus, are you saying that there is no ligitimate concern over immigration?
As to no figures on emmigration, that is easy to solve. Embarcation control. We should have that anyway.
“As you know, some people don’t like the question so don’t liek to answer it because its a rality they dont’ like.”
The good thing about this site is the number of people who are prepared to tell things as they see them, not as they would like them to be. But that’s certainly not universal among people involved in politics.
67- Many expats are civil servants, either diplomats or members of international organizations.
many of the new expats voter are young : the boost in registrated expat voters is largely due to the automatic registration of young people at 18 (a law passed since the last presidential election). Those are potentially more left-wing and/or abstentionists.
Besides, even 200.000 votes would be decisive only if the vote is as narrow as 50.2/49.8 which is unprecedented… That could be fun (in a US-Germany-Mexico-Italy kind of way) but seems really unlikely.
70. Home Office figures published today, on net immigration into the UK, show that it has shot up under Labour, and almost QUADRUPLED. The sharpest increase occurred in 97-98, when Labour first took office, though it has been increasing ever since at a lower rate.
My guess is that this happened because New Labour abolished, as soon as they got into power, the primary purpose rule, which was brought in by Tories to stop New Commonwealth families perpetually entering the country by family links (chain migration) and by abuse of the marriage system (fake marriages in other words). So much of this sudden influx of migrants came NOT, I imagine, from EU citizens, but from Pakistan, Bangladesh, India and Africa etc. I think stats show this to be true.
Indeed your comment is perplexing. You seem to be suggesting that the government has no idea about rates of migration in or out, so they shouldn’t even mention statistics. Maybe they are making these figures up?
Of course the real figures are probably much more alarming, if you take into account asylum, bogus asylum, and unmeasured illegal immigration. Because of the collapse of the immigration system under Labour, Britain may have been absorbing people at the rate of half a million a year since 1997. Who knows?
Certainly people in poorer white working class areas are feeling the impact, which is why they are thinking of voting BNP, which is why we are now getting these remarks from Labour ministers - and from Blair, in his odd but little noticed speech on black crime a week or so back. They must have seen polling which shows the BNP steaing votes straight from Labour. I’m not surprised.
Actually I have no real worries about immigration. Lots of people moving about the country, to London for example, creates similar problems but you wouldn’t control where people live would you?
As any citizen of the EU can come and live here, if they want to, and we can go and live anywhere in the EU I do not see how a few immigrants from non EU countries make a lot of difference. What good would embarkation control do? - Just cost a lot.
42 Anatole I think Jonathan has the reason. Although it is also true to say the the BBC has been moving things around. The Scotland section used to have a subsection on Politics, the same for Wales and NI but not for England. Now they seem to have put all those subsection in the main Politics section and England comes under , err, err More From Politics?
The BBC really hates to mention England. It took four years to get an England section on the main listing along with the other home countries. Now, apparently, there are no English politics worthy of a subsection even when rather important local elections are underway.
Sean - they shouldn’t quote statistics such as net immigration, without warning that there is a very, very, large margin of error.
But “blame the immigrants”, or those who are slightly different from us, has been a way of deflecting analysis of genuine problems and, I am afraid, winning votes, for years.
63 Interesting that you think Sarkozy will turn France around. He has been part of the French government for years and must share the blame for the current malaise. He is the problem not the solution. Half hearted captialism and macho right-wing nationalism gives a bleak future for France. Pathetic.
France needs a change of government and a clean break from the useless Chirac. It needs Royale to give France back the energy and confidence it has lost since Mitterand. Can you imagine Royale standing next to Obama and Brown or do you prefer little Sarko hiding in the shadows.
The last thing France should do is try to pretend to be the UK or US. It should build on its strength not cross dress.
Even if you have no problems with it, the point is that much of the electorate have problems with it, and they can vote.
80. I think Mitterand was as much part of the problem as Chirac is. Of the two, Sarkozy is the more likely to pursue the sort of reforms France needs.
76 I don’t know what the best guesstimates are on net immigration but I do know that when I were a lad the population of the country was always put at ‘about 50 million’ on news reports. Now it’s always put at ‘about 60 million). As the birth rate in the UK is not quite at replacement levels then there has been a very big migration into the UK. The idea that this has no consequences is patently absurd but it is a shibboleth of the left that all immigration is good for the country and it should have no limit. The BNP will prosper as long as poor white working class people are left with nowhere else to turn. All the main parties have failed here, but Labour have failed more as they are in power and got elected with the help of what used to be their core vote.
See the Cameron PPB where he tells a BNP supporter to vote for anyone else. Admirable sentiment, but he gives no reason to that voter why they should choose another party over the one that pretends to want to listen to the white working class. The Labour PPB ignores the whole issue (just like it ignores Iraq, pensions, council tax etc etc).
re 65. Well yes, I was rounding up. In 18 seat regions (like Glasgow IIRC) the threshold is 5.3%, in the majority 17 seat regions its 5.6%.
re 69. PtP I’d wait to hear from our Scottish brethren who’ve got their nose closer to the ground on whether the actual Green level supports what the polls are saying, but if it does the 6 or fewer seats might be value.
85 Will do, Chris. There were one or two on last night but I suspect they are out canvassing right now!
84. It can also depend on how the FPTP are distributed. In West of Scotland the Greens got 0 seats with 5.7%, whilse in North East Scotland 5.2% was enough for a seat
I apologise if this is only hearsay, but at the Book Launch last Tuesday, Icarus (who has good connections to the Scottish Lib Dems) was forecasting that the Greens, varigated Trots and independents would all fall back in terms of the numbers of votes cast. The Greens only just got over the quota last time - surely any slippage will see them wiped out except in the Lothians?
85.” I’d wait to hear from our Scottish brethren who’ve got their nose closer to the ground on whether the actual Green level supports what the polls are saying”
Actually considering they will probably be just above the final seat threshold or just below it in many regions, I wouldn’t be sure that people on the ground through canvassing and all can confortably say if they are going to hold or not their seat in a region (can canvassing returns be so precise to assure us that the Greens are at 6% instead of 5% in a whole region? I doubt it)
84 / 87 - surely it is not fixed but also depends on the results of other parties (as well as FPTP results). If a lot of parties get 2% / 3% of the vote then they can bring the threshold for one seat down for the others.
88 - I dont accept that the Greens could fall back to 1 seat. They have fairly safe seats in a lot of regions. I may be biased but I would back the 7 or more than 7 options (I think they are more likely and hence great value). Will be talking to some Scottish Greens later so will report back if they indicate any differently (though I doubt they can have an accurate idea on how things are going region-wide and probably wouldn’t say if it was not going well
).
88.”The Greens only just got over the quota last time - surely any slippage will see them wiped out except in the Lothians? ”
Potentially yes. However SSP is set to fall even more than them and so they will, at least, pass them in some regions. Then it depends where the votes go. I think it’ll be close in many regions for the last seat
Remember, though, that the Scottish Greens atre not contesting any FPTP constituency seats.
89 - Indeed it could be even closer - the canvassing could be spot on at 5.45% (or something) but the other parties FPTP distribution could mean the difference…
90.”surely it is not fixed but also depends on the results of other parties (as well as FPTP results). If a lot of parties get 2% / 3% of the vote then they can bring the threshold for one seat down for the others”
yes, how votes are distributed plays a good role. And also FPTP seats (for ex if all FPTP seats go to Lab, all other parties polling more than the Greens will get seats before them. However if FPTP seats are spread among Lab, SNP, LD, the divisor for SNP and LD will be higher and so probably increasing Green chance to get a seat in that region even if they poll the same % of the region with all FPTP seats to Lab)
I guess those of us that broadly favour immigration are still in a state of bewilderment that the debate is not being conducted in the thinly dissguised racist tones that used to be the case, but insteaed with a degree of civility.
I reckon it is only been in the last 5 years that it has become acceptable to say you see the positive benefits of immigration. Previously one hoped the issue would to come up, but now it is defended from a position of relative strength. Maybe thats why some on the left are too dogmatic about it, fearing a return to the surrogate racism of the past.
90.”I dont accept that the Greens could fall back to 1 seat. They have fairly safe seats in a lot of regions”
I would have thought that just the first Lothian seat is really safe for them. Where do you think their seats are safe?
80- Johnatan
“It needs Royale to give France back the energy and confidence it has lost since Mitterand. Can you imagine Royale standing next to Obama and Brown or do you prefer little Sarko hiding in the shadows.”
Basically your criticism is based on looks (and height)?Wooah, what a nice piece of analysis.
Have you asked yourself how Royal would give France some “energy and confidence”? Have you heard even one of her speeches?
Her campaign has one main axis : compassion for all the victims of a cruel world [If you read french, i advise you to read an excellent piece of the NY times correspondent in Paris (hardly a rightwinger) called “Ségolène Royal, apostle of a nation of victims”).
I really can’t see how saying that all is going worse and worse is supposed to give “energy and confidence”.
The truth, and I say it as a convinced sarkozyst, is that sarkozy would not have stand a chance this year in a contest against a good left-wing candidate, because the right-wing governments since 2002 have been very unpopular (notably because they imposed a pension reform including civil servants’ pensions, one thing Labour has still to do…).
Ms Royal is a very bad candidate and her campaign has been very unsuccessful.
How do you explain Bayrou, the laughing stock of French politics in 2002 managed to appear as a major candidate? Only because of Royal => last fall, Royal (having still not said a word but popular thanks to good photo-ops) was around 35% in first round vote intentions. She is now around 24. Bayrou was around 8, he is now around 19… see what I mean?
96 - I would be very surprised to see them lose a seat in Glasgow or Mid Scotland and Fife for example. In Glasgow they just snuck the last seat last time but since then have galvanised there quite a bit (and Labour might lose a “bonus” seat and one of the Socialist seats might be ropey). In Mid Scotland and Fife they would have to lose nearly 1/3 of their vote to lose their seat.
What are the odds on
(a) the top two candidates being Sarkozy and Le Pen
(b) Le Pen getting more votes than Sarkozy in the first round?
Re 95, John Wheatley, How much immigration are you in favour of? And for what reason?
Re 99, John loony, (b) No chance.
97 Don’t underestimate looks and height! It is no coincidence that Cameron and Balir are tall and reasonably good looking. If they were short and ugly, they would not be where they are. Sad perhaps, but true. Polished presentation makes a difference.
Clearly, Sarkozy has a Napoleon complex. Maybe that is a good thing in France!
98.”In Glasgow they just snuck the last seat last time but since then have galvanised there quite a bit (and Labour might lose a “bonus” seat and one of the Socialist seats might be ropey)”
Labour hasn’t a list seat in Glasgow to lose.
99 - Sarkozy / Le Pen 1st & 2nd is quoted at 9/2 with Unibet.
Augustus (88) It wasn’t me!!! - even if it was, then don’t rely on anything I say.
105 - OK, Icky, but Gus has put the finger on you anyway. Now spill the beans. Tories at 9/4 to beat Libdems - value or not?
Get it wrong, and you sleep with the fishes.
105 Sorry! Even I am doing it now - I have confused you with Cicero! Humble apologies all round.
103 - Yes but if they lose a FPTP seat it wont be compensated with a gain on the list whereas the party winning it will (all things being equal) probably lose their list seat leaving an extra list seat to be fought over by everyone else (effectively reducing the threshold to win a seat).
Just to let everyone know I’ve added my latest batch of ramblings and any comments are most welcome:
http://aloadofoldstodge.blogspot.com/2007/04/thursdays-thoughts.html
Peter, if you have backed the Tories than I think, (on the basis of your past recommendations) I should put a tenner on the Lib Dems!!!
Where is that market?
100 Benedict - love to but not here, its too O/T
107 Too late, Augustus. The contract’s already been placed.
Poor old Icarus.
Nice chap too.
110 It’s Hills, Icarus. It was a Jack W recommendation, not mine. I wouldn’t have a clue.
Sorry about the contract. Once placed, there’s not much one can do about them. Mafia doesn’t do refunds.
Sure you’ll be alright though.
108. If Sturgeon gains Govan and all parties poll the same of 2003 in the list vote, SNP will keep their 2 list seats anyway (it would be the 7th seat)
I’m not saying that the Greens are likely to lose their Glasgow seat, just that it isn’t a safe seat. I suppose the scenario of a Green loss in Glasgow is if SNP grown quite well, but taking just Govan at FPTP level (giving them a 3th list seat), the Libdems gaining enough for a second seat, Sheridan and the tories beind ahead of the Greens. In that case SNP and LDs will gain seats from Green and Rosie Kane. However it’s just a suggestion. In the end the Greens can outpoll the tories in Glasgow leaving the tories battling with the Trots, can’t they?!
104. Just can’t see it myself.
114 “In the end the Greens can outpoll the tories in Glasgow leaving the tories battling with the Trots, can’t they?!”
yes, yes of course they can
Re 111, John Wheatley you can either email me or post a reply to this article:
http://aconservatives.blogspot.com/2007/04/labour-finally-notice-impact-of.html
my email is benedictmpwhite at gmail dot com
97 - Chris(from Paris), you are dead right about what a better socialist candidate could have done this time. People who see Royal through the non-French media have no idea just how bad she is. She is terrible. I still don’t think Strauss-Kahn would have beaten Sarkozy, though. It would have needed to be a Kouchner.
97, 118 - Well you can now put your predictions down on paper (or at least on-line) - Paul Maggs’ French Election prediction comp. is up. (PS - I think you have a typo - apparantly Politicos are paying the price rather than providing the prize
)
“Bon Courage” to all the Millibandistas reading this blog - see
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/magazine/6570941.stm
The LD leader in Darlington has signed the BNP candidate nomination papers after an “error of judgement”. He has now resigned his position
http://www.darlingtonlibdems.org.uk/news/000058.html
121 What???? Had strong drink been taken or something?
Wow!! What an idiot.
121, 122 - It’s a thin line.
I think the Greens will do about the same as last time. From being out and about I haven’t seen any evidence of there vote slipping or increasing significantly.
They seem a bit more organised too and they may pick up a few council seats too.
125 - Interesting, but for clarification have you been out and about in Edinburgh & Lothians, or have you been helping in other regions too? Just thinking that the Greens in Edin and Lothians are probably not representative of the rest of the country.
126 - Actually back home in the South of Scotland at the moment Lennon! Also been speaking to people in Glasgow and Edinburgh.
Re 121, 122 and 123, I know we have had mix ups with Conservatives and Labour sharing nominees in my area, both councilors and cadidates have had the brains not to make that sort of mistake!
That really is absurdly crass. Surprised he has not been ejected though it may be too late.
On the Green subject I thought wrongly that they would be stronger at this election, but at least in my part of the world there are actually far fewer Green candidates - they are pretty much gone except for Exeter.
129 Unless he was set up or something? Meets a bloke in the pub who says he is going to be an Independant, not opposing the Lib Dems, please will you sign etc. Later turns out to be the BNP, all very embarrassing etc. (You will notice that my naturally charitable self is trying hard to find some sort of justification here. probably without success.)
Totally OT. Tony Blair is to turn up at Stormont on 8th May to see the restoration of devolution.
No matter if Labour are taking a tanking in elections the night before.
The Tony legacy project reaches its end, with the resignation statement either on the day or within a few days.
Actually, it’s the week before, Yokel. Polling on Thursday 3rd (my birthday!) with lots of the results being counted on Friday 4th May.
132.
Hold on let me change my post….it don’t matter if Labour takes a tanking a FEW days before…
Nah it doesn’t sound as effective does it…
I’m actually sitting here with a diary beside me, can you believe that. Pathetic.
Anyway we all know whats due. I am guessing resignation notice will come in very very close to the devolution day, perhaps shortly after. I don’t know that he’ll want to do it just after the election losses when he can do it on a high note a few days later.
Assuming devolution goes ahead of course…
I need to go home…I mean’t in refernce to post 133…,thanks Augustus.
Yes, I can see him staying overnight, and allowing Devolved Government to get all the publicity on the day; anywhere else in the world it would be celebrated with fireworks in the evening, but that would probably be inappropriate in Belfast. Everyone will make a fuss of him, and say what a statesman he is (and Paisley, Adams et al) and he will then announce his resignation the next day.
Will Blair have left the Labour party in a better state than when he found it?
Me thinks not!
An even more pertinant question is if GB is likely to make things even worse ……then why have him?
Yokel, will HM the Queen be attending the Stormont gig? If so, it would spare Tony Blair a trip to the Palace to kiss hands or hand over Seals or collect a black bin bag or whatever it is they have to do.
139, Nah only the affable cheerleading Bertie Ahern…a man with an election campaign of his own on the go…
If the Queen turned up it would upset a few people….
S’pose you’re right. Mind you, I would have thought that most self-respecting republicans would prefer to see Her Majesty than Bertie on the Stump.
141. Well, there was the rumour that Bertie didnt want devolution make it, on the basis that the mythical Plan B would occur giving him more say in NI and also giving him a convenient big stick to beat Sinn Fein with around election time.
Just a story…
I was once doing some business in Dublin’s fair city and someone I was negotiating with said that I was behaving like a Fianna Fail Tally Man. Obviously, it was the rudest thing he could think of to call me. Should I have sued?
133.And it’s Tone’s birthday on May 6th, you see these things are all carefully planned……’Big Brother 8′ not too far away either!
You know, I better have a word with a the authorities and confirm that Michael Stone will be being held on remand….
143. Tallymen in the South were known in the past for being pretty robust and occasionally loud characters. I have no idea if they’ve calmed down.
O/T - On the France Election Thread - 28 Entries so far - Average currently as follows:
Bayrou = 18.4%
Le Pen = 17.8%
Royale = 24.0%
Sarkoz = 27.5%
(Others = 12.3%)
Re: 121 “The LD leader in Darlington has signed the BNP candidate nomination papers after an “error of judgement”. He has now resigned his position”
http://www.darlingtonlibdems.org.uk/news/000058.html
This is far worse than your pc being used to send round a cartoon on immigrants.
22-NP MP
This is the cuddly new moderate BNP, eh? Now as we try not to discuss policy here but just electoral prospects, what I wonder is whether people who vote BNP are generally unaware of this sort of thing, or they genuinely don’t mind and think it perfectly compatible with patriotism to make excuses for Hitler. It affects how one campaigns against them.
Yet, when you were by your own admission a communist, I presume you neither knew or didn’t care what was done in the name of communism? Or, as previously discussed ad nauseum, some totalitarianisms are more acceptable than others? So what was it? You didn’t know about Stalin/Pol Pot/Hungary,.. or…perhaps you didn’t care in the construction of your brave new world?
This is the new cuddly face of Labour?
148 - Curious that the link wasn’t posted by Peter Pigeon or ColinW who are usually so eager to point out such incidents involving local councillors
147- the score of “others” is far to low : there are 8 of them and they will probably at least gather an average of 2% (16% in total)
151 - It includes at least one entry which forgot about the others and thus adds to 100% for the 4… Even so I thought it looked on the low side which you appear to have confimed. How are the 8 distributed? (ie 5 to the left of Royale, 1 to the right of Le Pen, 2 independant centrists or similar?)
Peter2: When, 30-odd years ago, I was a communist, I was very much aware of people who’d called themselves commnunists and done appalling things, and it’s why I supported the Eurocommunist movement.
Nick Griffin, by contrast, is BNP leader now, and apparently prepared to make excuses for the Nazis. You see no difference?
152-
3 trostskysts + 1 communist + 1 anti-globalization + 1 green : 6 to the left of royal
1 far-right
1 hunting/fishing (mostly right-wing support)
154 - Thanks - I suspected the distribution was along those lines but good to have it confirmed.
I disagree.
Were a Tory MP to admit to having been a Nazi (but of the non gas chamber type, say a “Euro Nazi”/”Democratic Fascist”-and for that matter how often does the BNP call for the violent overthrow of the state?) 30 years ago, you’d be the first to scream blue murder.
I admire your candour but cannot admire the fact that you knew full well what signing on to being a (Euro)Communism meant. The fact you were happy to sign up for the Communist brand says enough as to what you felt about what was done in it’s name. Was