French Presidential Election 2007 1st Round Competition
April 19th, 2007
Win this biography of Sego provided by Politcos
For each of the candidates listed, predict their percentage share of the vote in the first round of the French Presidential election. Make your predictions to up to one decimal place.
Your score for each candidate will be the absolute difference between your prediction and their actual result, and your overall score will be the sum of your four candidate scores combined. (Your score for each candidate will be calculated to one decimal place.)
The entry with the lowest combined score will win the competition.
Tie-breaker
What will be the highest percentage vote score by any candidate (not just the “big four”) in any of France’s 106 départements? Make your prediction to up to two decimal places.
For the purposes of the competition there are 106 départements in total, 96 in metropolitan France (mainland + Corsica), nine in the DOM-TOM (the overseas territories), with French Overseas as an additional département.
The competition will use official final results as released by the Interior Ministry and as verified by the Constitutional Council. In the event of any dispute, the Organiser’s decision is final.
Entries close at 9pm BST Saturday 21st April.
Special thanks to Chris (from Paris) for his assistance with the competition and to Politicos for providing the price - more details of which can be found here.
Paul Maggs “Double Carpet”
MessageSpace Advertising
François Bayrou (UDF) - 19.8%
Jean-Marie Le Pen (FN) - 20.3%
Ségolène Royal (PS) - 24.4%
Nicolas Sarkozy (UMP) - 27.1%
Highest percentage - 64.21%
François Bayrou (UDF): 22.0%
Jean-Marie Le Pen (FN): 20.0%
Ségolène Royal (PS): 27.5%
Nicolas Sarkozy (UMP): 28.5%
François Bayrou (UDF): 22.0%
Jean-Marie Le Pen (FN): 20.0%
Ségolène Royal (PS): 27.5%
Nicolas Sarkozy (UMP): 28.5%
Highest Percentage: 66.66%
Ignore Post 2 please
François Bayrou (UDF) - 15.9%
Jean-Marie Le Pen (FN) - 12.2%
Ségolène Royal (PS) - 25.3%
Nicolas Sarkozy (UMP) - 29.4%
Highest percentage: 55.5%
FB - 21.6%
J-MLP - 17.3%
SR - 28.2%
NS - 32.9
Highest % - 73.6%
Sarkozy 26%,
Royal 24%,
Le Pen 17%,
Bayrou 16%.
Highest vote 60%.
Sarko 24%
Sego 20%
Bayrou 18%
Le Pen 17%
Highest vote 64.5%
François Bayrou (UDF) - 18.0%
Jean-Marie Le Pen (FN) - 15.3%
Ségolène Royal (PS) - 25.86%
Nicolas Sarkozy (UMP) - 28.33%
Highest percentage - 64.21%
sarko 25.1
sego 20.7
Bayrou 22.7
Bic 19.1
Highest percentage 63.5
Sarkozy - 31,1
Royal - 25,4
Le Pen - 15,8
Bayrou - 14,1
Highest percentage - 66,4
Sarkozy 29.3
Royal 24.1
Bayrou 20.3
Le Pen 17.3
Highest percentage: 71.00% (Sarkozy overseas …)
Sarkozy 28.1
Royal 22.2
Le Pen 18.1
Bayrou 17.1
HP : 73 %
François Bayrou (UDF): 27.0%
Jean-Marie Le Pen (FN): 15.0%
Ségolène Royal (PS): 26.5%
Nicolas Sarkozy (UMP): 31.5%
Highest Percentage: 60.0%
Sarkozy: 29%
Royal: 25%
Le Pen: 20%
Bayrou: 15%
Highest percentage: 75% (just to have the highest estimate yet!)
14 Sarko 28.2%
Sego 24.3%
Bayro 18.2%
LePeno 14.8%
HP 74.9%
Correction to mine (completely forgot about the other 8 candidates):
FB - 19.6%
J-MLP - 16.3%
SR - 24.2%
NS - 28.9
Highest % - 73.6%
NS-26.8%
SR-24.5%
J-MLP-17.8%
FB-17.5%
Highest-65.5%
Sorry to hijack the post, but this is now running on the Press Association wire:
Bookmakers Ladbrokes today cut the odds on the SNP winning most seats at next month’s Holyrood elections.
It is the first time ever that the bookmakers have put the Nationalists ahead of Labour in a Scottish parliamentary election.
And a spokesman explained they had made the decision after receiving a flurry of bets on the SNP.
Ladbrokes spokesman Nick Weinberg said: “It’s been one way traffic.
“We’ve seen only a handful of bets on Labour, whilst the SNP are being backed at all prices.”
Ladbrokes now have the Nationalists at 4/7 to be the party largest in Holyrood after May 3.
The firm had reduced the odds on the SNP from 5/6 to 8/11 earlier this week, before cutting them again today.
Labour are currently at 5/4 to win most seats and Ladbrokes has both the Liberal Democrats and the Conservatives as outsiders, with odds of 66/1 and 80/1 respectively, on them being the largest party.
Sarko - 28.5%
Royal - 23.5%
Bayrou - 18.5 %
Le Pen - 17.5%
Highest -62%
Sarko - 26
Royal - 25.8
Bayrou - 17.1 %
Le Pen - 17 %
Highest - 70%
Nicolas Sarkozy (UMP) - 26.4%
Ségolène Royal (PS) - 23.3%
Jean-Marie Le Pen (FN) - 16.9%
François Bayrou (UDF) - 16.2%
Highest percentage: 58.5%
Sarkozy - 26.1%
Royal - 24.4%
Bayrou - 20.3%
Le Pen - 16.6%
Highest- 64.72%
Nicolas Sarkozy (UMP) - 20%
Ségolène Royal (PS) - 13%
Jean-Marie Le Pen (FN) - 40.9%
François Bayrou (UDF) - 16.2%
Highest percentage - 48%
Sarkozy 27.7
Royal 24.4
Bayrou 19.8
Le Pen 17.9
Highest percentage 63.6
Sarkozy - 27,1
Royal - 22,4
Le Pen - 16,8
Bayrou - 20,1
Highest 65.3%
Sarkozy -26.5
Royal -25.5
Le Pen -18.5
Bayrou -17.5
Highest -65%
27 Bonjour mes vieux. Je vous souhaites tous la bonne chance. J’estimes….
Bayrou - 18.9
Le Pen - 17.5
Royal - 24.5
Sarkozy - 27.3
Plus haut - 69.31
Merde au quinzieme!
François Bayrou (UDF)-17
Jean-Marie Le Pen (FN)-16
Ségolène Royal (PS)-26
Nicolas Sarkozy (UMP)-30
72.11
18 Further to Jay Gee’s very helpful post, Will Hill are STILL going 5/6 SNP, but surely cannot hold out much longer. I’ve had £400 myself today and there is no indication yet that they are restricting stakes.
François Bayrou (UDF): 16.0%
Jean-Marie Le Pen (FN): 14.0%
Ségolène Royal (PS): 27%
Nicolas Sarkozy (UMP): 32%
Highest Percentage: 58%
François Bayrou (UDF): 17.4%
Jean-Marie Le Pen (FN): 16.2%
Ségolène Royal (PS): 25.9%
Nicolas Sarkozy (UMP): 27.5%
Highest Percentage: 63.2%
Bayrou: 18.9%
Le Pen: 18.3%
Royal: 22.0%
Sarkozy: 24.2%
Highest Percentage: 55.7%
François Bayrou (UDF) - 17.9%
Jean-Marie Le Pen (FN) - 16.8%
Ségolène Royal (PS) - 23.8%
Nicolas Sarkozy (UMP) - 26.7%
Highest percentage: 68.85
Reference point - the highest département vote last time was Chirac’s 62.38% in French Polynesia…….
34- the highest percentage will almost certainly come from overseas territory again
Useless - I ignored the “others” but I am not alone. Can we have another go?
36 Icarus - Just submit another one under the name of Innocent Abroad, or Cicero. Nobody will notice.
FB.UDF 22.0
JMLP.FN 22.0
SR.PS 22.0
NS.UMP 25.0
HIGHEST% 62.8
Bayrou 19.6%
Le Pen 17.5%
Royal 25.4%
Sarkozy 30.7%
Good luck to all.
I forgot - Highest percentage 56.8%
Bayrou 20
Le Pen 20
Royal 20
Sarkozy 26
41 scallywag- enjoy rounding up?
My prediction is
François Bayrou (UDF) - 17.8%
Jean-Marie Le Pen (FN) - 14.2%
Ségolène Royal (PS) - 24.3%
Nicolas Sarkozy (UMP) - 26.1%
highest turnout- 63.4%
Sarkozy 28.4%
Royal 24.6%
Bayrou 17.8%
Le Pen 16.8%
Highest turnout 61.23%
François Bayrou (UDF): 17.0%
Jean-Marie Le Pen (FN): 17.0%
Ségolène Royal (PS): 20%
Nicolas Sarkozy (UMP): 26%
Highest percentage: 66.8%
Bayrou 20.4%
Royal 19.8%
Le Pen 15.5%
Sarkozy 28.8%
Highest percentage 58.5%
François Bayrou (UDF): 23.0%
Jean-Marie Le Pen (FN): 14.0%
Ségolène Royal (PS): 21.5%
Nicolas Sarkozy (UMP): 27.5%
Others 14%
Highest Percentage: 60.0%
If this is right please ignor post 13.
Thanks for your advice Peter - but it is the prize I am after!
Le Pen 21.1%
Sarkozy 26.1%
Bayrou 16%
Royal 25.9%
Highest Percentage - 59.3%
Might as well take a risk on this one.
Sarkozy: 25.4
Bayrou: 22.1
Royal: 21.9
Le Pen: 19.6
Highest: 58.7%
François Bayrou (UDF) - 16.9%
Jean-Marie Le Pen (FN) - 20.5%
Ségolène Royal (PS) - 19.5%
Nicolas Sarkozy (UMP) - 25.7%
Highest percentage: 68.85
Le Pen 22%
Sarkozy 21.5%
Bayrou 18%
Royal 25%
I see Chris from Paris has got us all well trained. Does nobody think Sarkozy will not win?
Whatever the UMP are paying you, Chris, it’s not enough.
51 Yes PtP, Mike above has him THIRD!!!
Ségolène Royal - 24.8
Nicolas Sarkozy - 23
Jean-Marie Le Pen - 18
François Bayrou - 15.5
Highest percentage - 63%
50. Spoof post? That’s not really you is it Mike?
51 PtP - That’s two in ten minutes. Do they know something the rest of us don’t?
Re 50. Yes it is me - the real thing. My rationale is that in five sixths of all polls since January the aggregate Le Pen/Sarkorzy total has been within one point of 42.5%. Also last time the nearest poll to what Le Pen actually got was 4.5% short. I reckon that if Le Pen does better than expected Sarkorzy will be the loser.
I also reckon that the left’s desire to have a candidate in the final two will keep Sego there.
Finally this outcome is just wonderful for me from a betting perspective. I bought Le Pen when he was 0.4 on the Spreadfair market and am on Royal at 10. With this betting you get 25 points for first place and 10 for second place so with my predicted result I win both ways.
Bayrou 16.4
Le Pen 21.1
Royal 19.2
Sarkozy 23.8
tie-break 63.71
Sarko 28
Sego 25
Beyrou 17
Le pen 17
Highest 69
Sarkozy 25.9%
Royal 23.6%
Le Pen 16.5%
Bayrou 15.5%
Highest Vote - 59.5%
55. As far as I can see, that’s only one person predicting that Sarkozy will not win (not two).
60 - Check out both 50 and 53 above!
Sarkozy 27.1%
Royal 25.4%
Le Pen 16.6%
Bayrou 15.1%
Highest share - 64.22%
New thread - Is something big about to break?
For those interested, the story so far (especially as Mike’s put up another thread). I’m ignoring the post at [23] and the first posts of those who reposted after they remembered that these aren’t the only four candidates.
Averages: Sarkozy 27.06, Royal 23.71, Bayrou 18.16, Le Pen 17.5, Others 13.57.
Highest: Sarkozy 32 (Cicero), Royal 27.5 (Harry Hayfield), Bayrou 23 (Icarus), Le Pen 22 (Mike Smithson and AJ), Others 21.0 (Cookie).
Lowest: Sarkozy 21.5 (Mike Smithson), Royal 19.2 (JohnLoony), Bayrou 14.1 (Jan from Norway), Le Pen 12.2 (Mister Chip), Others 2.0 (Harry Hayfield).
Nearly everyone has Sarkozy to finish first ahead of Royal in second.
AJ and Scallywag are predicting constitutional chaos with a three-way tie for second.
The largest predicted lead for Sarkozy is 9.0 (Arnie) and the biggest for Royal is 3.5 (Mike Smithson).
François Bayrou (UDF) - 18%
Jean-Marie Le Pen (FN) - 14%
Ségolène Royal (PS) - 24%
Nicolas Sarkozy (UMP) - 28%
Highest percentage: 65%
41. Oops forgot my tiebreaker - 66%
Francis Bayrou ( UDF ) - 16.7%
Jean-Marie Le Pen ( FN ) - 22.6%
Segolene Royal ( PS ) - 22.1%
Nicolas Sarkozy ( UMP ) - 27.9%
Highest percentage: 58.9%
Bayrou (UDF) 17.1%
Le Pen (FN) 17.8
Royal (PS) 26.1
Sarkozy (UMP) 26.6
Highest percentage: 57.4
Bayrou - 17.4%
Le Pen - 16.5%
Sarkozy - 27.5%
Royal - 24.5%
Highest percentage: 64.7%
61. 53 does not predict that Sarkozy will not win.
64. Why ignore 23?
Sarkozy 28.9%
Royal 22.3%
Le Pen 14.5%
Bayrou 18.0%
Biggest single win - 59.4%
Good Luck everyone.
Bayrou - 17.6
Le Pen - 18.5
Royal - 24.3
Sarkozy - 27.5
Highest- 63.9
71. Because it’s someone calling themselves Adolf Hitler and predicting Le Pen a stupidly high 40%? Clearly a joke.
Bayrou 18.2%
Le Pen 17.5%
Royal 23.7%
Sarkozy 27.0%
Highest 63.5%
74. That is blatant censorship and intellectual imperialism against the unconventional. Why shouldn’t someone predict 40% for LePen? It’s more likely than the person/people who predicted a total of 2% for the eight “others”.
76. “Why shouldn’t someone predict 40% for LePen” no reason as such, but as it’s come from a poster with no previous posting history who presumably has their own reasons for wanting a big FN performance given the name and scores, I don’t see why people should be able to manipulate a consensus. I have included everyone else, including the other first time posters.
Also, to have included it would have dominated the highest / lowest scores, which otherwise are very consistent - and I thought that was something worth commenting on.
Sarko - 27.4%
Sego - 25.2%
Bayrou - 16.9%
Le Pen - 16.8%
Highest percentage - 63.87%
I’ll go for:
Sarkozy: 27.5%
Royal: 23.2%
Bayrou: 17.1%
Le Pen 19.6%
And the tiebreaker: 60.1%
Sarkozy 27.9
Royale 23.4
Bayrou 18.9
Le Pen 17.9
Highest for tie-breaker 58.6%
Sarkozy: 24.5%
Royal: 22.7%
Bayrou: 19.3%
Le Pen 21%
Highest percentage: 65%
Sarkozy: 25.6%
Royale: 22.5%
Le Pen: 20.1%
Bayrou: 17.8%
Highest: 56.5%
sarkozy 26.8%
royale 24.2%
lepen 19.2%
bayrou 15.8%
highest 65%
FB - 15.3%
JMLP - 16.5%
SR - 22.8%
NS - 28.9%
67%
Incidentially, I’m running a couple of polls here if you have a second:
http://oxfordliberal.blogspot.com/2007/04/new-poll-french-presidential-election.html
71 - Oh dear, now le’ts take this nice and slowly - post 53 above has Royal at 24.8% and Sarkozy at 23%. Now 24.8% is a larger percentage than 23%, thereby putting Royal ahead - got it?
Sarkozy: 28.6%
Royale: 23.5%
Le Pen: 15.1%
Bayrou: 23.8%
Highest: 57.5%
Sarkozy: 26.5%
Royale: 18.5%
Le Pen: 21.0%
Bayrou: 19.0%
Highest: 66.1%
85 - I am predicting Sego to win the first round, maybe 71 is assuming I am not actually predicting a 2nd round win too. Or maybe I am being too generous??
François Bayrou (UDF) - 18.6%
Jean-Marie Le Pen (FN) - 15.1%
Ségolène Royal (PS) - 23.8%
Nicolas Sarkozy (UMP) - 26.7%
Highest percentage: 62.7%
François Bayrou (UDF) - 19.4%
Jean-Marie Le Pen (FN) - 18.1%
Ségolène Royal (PS) - 24.8%
Nicolas Sarkozy (UMP) - 25.2%
Highest percentage: 68.4%
Sarkozy 27.6%
Royal 24.2%
Le Pen 19.2%
Bayrou 18.5%
Highest % - 67.2
Sarkozy 27.9%
Royal 23.6%
Le Pen 17.5%
Bayrou 19.2%
Highest % 69.3
François Bayrou (UDF) - 18.2%
Jean-Marie Le Pen (FN) - 17.8%
Ségolène Royal (PS) - 22.6%
Nicolas Sarkozy (UMP) - 27.4%
Highest percentage - 71.2%
Le Pen 17%
Sarkozy 24.5%
Bayrou 19%
Royal 23%
Highest % 63.5
Sarkozy: 26.4%
Royal: 22.7%
Le Pen: 17.7%
Bayrou: 16.7%
Highest percentage: 59.8%
Sarko 28
Ségo 25
FrouFrou 20
Le Pen 15
Sarkozy - 27.4%
Royal - 24.1%
Le Pen - 19.1%
Bayrou - 15.2%
Highest Turnout 64.7%
85. I will explain this slowly because you are obviously very illogical.
I “got it” in the first place; it is you who has not “got it”.
The combined content of your statements (in messages 51 and 55) was to say that there are two people predicting that Sarkozy will not win.
The only prediction that Sarkozy will not win is the one in message 50, which predicts that the second round will be between Le Pen and Royal.
The prediction in message 53 says that the second round will be between Royal and Sarkozy. Therefore it says that Sarkozy will be in the second round. The opinion polls have consistently said that the second round (if it is between Royal and Sarkozy) will probably be won by Sarkozy. Therefore Message 53 does not say that “Sarkozy will not win”, which is what you incorrectly stated in 51 & 55.
You are now trying to move the goalposts by referring to the completely irrelevant fact that message 53 predicts that Royal will get more votes in the first round than Sarkozy. The question of who comes top in the first round is irrelevant to the question of who wins, unless it is so overwhelming as to make one candidate certain to win. Even message 23 (who predicted 40% for LePen) predicted that Sarkozy will win.
Do you now understand that 24.8% is less than 50%? Or will I have to come back later to explain it to you yet again?
88. No, you did not predict Royal winning the first round.
You predicted Royal coming in first place in the first round.
24.8% is not enough for a candidate to win in the first round.
Nobody “wins the first round” or “wins in the first round” unless they get 50% or more. If there is no candidate in the first round with more than 50%, then the top two candidates “are the top two” or “go through to the second round” or “come top” or “come first and second” but nobody “wins”.
Bayrou - 20.0%
Le Pen - 20.0%
Royale - 20.0%
Sarkoz - 20.0%
(Others) - 20.0%
Max % - 62.83%
- Italy all over again - & Electoral Chaos… but great for punters
88 Matthew - with one notable exception, I think we all know that PtP in 51 was referring to the first round “winner” and I’m just not prepared to continue this pointless argument with JL - I imagine you feel likewise.
101 - yep.
Bayrou - 18
Royal - 22
le Pen - 18
Sarkozy - 28
Tie-breaker. Hmm. Something like 70%. As it’s a tie-breaker, to make sure it breaks the tie, I’ll call it 68.7%.
I am not having a pointless argument.
I was merely pointing out the inaccuracy in what you had written.
There is no such thing as “the winner” in the first round, unless he/she gets more than 50%.
If you want to talk about who comes first in the first round, then that is a completely different thing.
The point is that you started this conversation by stating that message 53 was predicting that “Sarkozy will not win”. The only way that Sarkozy can “not win”, i.e. “lose”, in the first round, is by coming third or lower. Sarkozy coming third or lower is NOT what message 53 predicted. Message 53 specifically predicted that the second round will be Sarkozy vs. Royal, i.e. that Sarkozy will probably win.
If you want to continue to believe that you are somehow correct and accurate in what you wrote in the first place, then that is a matter for you. But everybody else knows perfectly well that in the French presidential election system it is necessary for a candidate to get 50% in order to win.
The person who wrote the original prediction at 53 has come back in message 88 to confirm that he did not predict either way whether sarkozy would win or not.
If you think that getting 24.8% counts as “winning” (i.e. being elected as President of France) then you are insane and evil, and should be ruthlessly exterminated.
101. I don’t know whom you are referring to as the “one noteable exception”, but it absolutely certainly definitely is not me. As far as I can tell, you are the only person on this thread who does not understand the French Presidential election system, and who thinks that 24.8% is enough for a candidate to win. The rest of us all know that the first round of the election is about losing, not winning.
With 71 Entries the Average, Min & Max are as follows:
Bayrou - Avg: 18.2% (14.1%-23.8%)
Le Pen - Avg: 17.6% (12.2%-22.6%)
Royale - Avg: 23.6% (18.5%-27.5%)
Sarkoz - Avg: 27.0% (20.0%-32.0%)
Others - Avg: 13.6% ( 2.0%-31.0%)
Bayrou 15.3
Le Pen 15.8
Royal 22.7
Sarkozy 29,1
tie breaker 59.1 (probably in Wallis or St Pierre et Miquelon)
François Bayrou (UDF) - 17.3
Jean-Marie Le Pen (FN) - 16.8
Ségolène Royal (PS) - 24.8
Nicolas Sarkozy (UMP) - 27.9
Highest percentage - 60.3
Complete guess work so apologies if I am anywhere near close.
Bayrou 17.1%
Le pen 16.2%
Royal 25.2%
Sarkozy 28.4%
Highest percentage 62.7%
François Bayrou (UDF) - 17.9%
Jean-Marie Le Pen (FN) - 16.7%
Ségolène Royal (PS) - 23.9%
Nicolas Sarkozy (UMP) - 26.7%
Highest percentage: 70.85
François Bayrou (UDF) - 16.5%
Jean-Marie Le Pen (FN) - 17.5%
Ségolène Royal (PS) - 24.0%
Nicolas Sarkozy (UMP) - 27.0%
Highest percentage: 66.5
Sarkozy 27.9%
Royal 23.0%
Le Pen 17.1%
Bayrou 15.6%
Highest percentage: 57.50
I’ve missed the cutoff - damn. I thought it was midnight.
Never mind, I’ll put them in anyway:
Sarkozy: 26.8%
Royale: 23.2%
Bayrou: 17.7%
Le Pen: 16.6%
Highest percentage: 54.2%