Is something big about to break?
April 19th, 2007
My voice-mail from the Mole
I’ve just picked up a voice-mail message that was left on my mobile by a Scottish sounding man earlier this evening. He said he was “The Mole” of The First Post fame.
This is the full text of the message that was left: “Mike you wont me know but I think you read my column - I write the Mole in the First Post.
I’m just phoning you to give you heads up that you should look at my column tomorrow. There’s something on it that may interest you about a certain announcement.
I’ll leave it at that but I’d love to say who I am and be less crpyptic… Read my column tomorrow.”
The Mole has been taking a fairly Number 11 Downing Street view of the Labour succession - not Number 10. I can only assume that the announcement that he refers to is the Tony Blair one about the exit time-table. There has been some speculation that Blair could make it BEFORE May 3rd - election day.
We have to assume that we are being prepared for something big for a reason. This guy did not call me to do me a favour - there is a reason why he wants us to know some development is about to come forward.
I am intrigued and I pass this on.
Mike Smithson
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If Tony Blair announces his departure before the 3rd May elections then he’s very effectively stabbing Gordon Brown in the back (or maybe the front). It’d be a very clever move from Blair - escape blame for the election results and destroy Brown all in one go.
If Labour still do very badly in the elections, even after Tony Blair has named his date, then the bulk of the blame for the defeat will surely shift to Gordon Brown.
Interesting.
I dont think Tony hates Gordon enough to want to destroy the Labour Party in the process of harming him. I think Tony still fundamentally likes Labour - witness his speech at conference. Gordon will take over as PM, Blair must know that. But announcing his resignation just before, he would be crippling Brown, even if he saved a few seats in Wales and Scotland. Deliberate crippling the next leader would be unforgivable, and I cant imagine Blair would do it.
Surely Tony Blair realises that he must announce his departure date before the elections. Doing it afterwards will LOOK like he has been forced into going after the humiliating Labour meltdown. With Tony it is always all about what is best for Tony.
1. “If Tony Blair announces his departure before the 3rd May elections then he’s very effectively stabbing Gordon Brown in the back (or maybe the front). It’d be a very clever move from Blair - escape blame for the election results and destroy Brown all in one go. If Labour still do very badly in the elections, even after Tony Blair has named his date, then the bulk of the blame for the defeat will surely shift to Gordon Brown”
uhm, I can’t see any difference in how much the bad local results should be blamed on Brown. If Blair just names the date (and the date is just after the locals), Brown won’t be leader at the time of the local elections and Labour would be held by, well, a resigning leader.
If it is an early announcement I think it has more to do with Blair’s obviously increasing disengagement from government. He’s done the Northern Ireland deal, Europen Summit and the G8 don’t look like a seal on his term but opportunities for political deals and no great outcomes. Why should he stick it out? He seems to have mentally adjusted - comments on leadership, last chance to kick me etc.- and is probably now more enthused by what he does next rather then being PM. He should just announce he’s going and step down; perhaps putting Gordon forward to Queeen as PM, leaving it to the party to decide if that should be subject to leadeship election.
Maybe it’s Brown annoucing that after 13 years trying to get the top spot, he got bored and he won’t run afterall
Or maybe it’s Tony annoucing he’ll join the Campaign Group and back John4Leader.
Or maybe it’s Cherie annoucing she’s running aways with the man next door (the one leaving in number 9)
4 - Andrea, my point is that Blair would be playing his “nothing to do with me, guv” card. (The reality, of course, is that everyone has already factored a Brown premiership into their voting intention.)
There are 3 possible scenarios:
1) Blair doesn’t pre-announce his resignation and Labour do badly
2) Blair does pre-announce his resignation and Labour still do badly
3) Blair does pre-announce his resignation and Labour do OK.
The first scenario is bad for Blair and Labour
The second scenario is OK for Blair and bad for Labour
The third scenario is good for both Blair and Labour
If it is true that Blair is to make a pre-election announcement then it suggests to me that No10 are expecting far worse election results for Labour than had previously been thought.
Interesting that Iain Dale very recently speculated on the possibility of a May 2 Blair resignation…
Maybe Tony’s changed his mind again and he’s staying?
Seriously though, I’m not sure what it’ll be and I’m intrigued. Thanks for passing the message along Mike.
7. Steven Whaley, I agree with point 1 and 3. But I don’t agree very much with point 3. Blair pre-announce his date, ok, but the ““nothing to do with me, guv” card is not so easy to be played. It’s not that if TB names the date on May 2, voters will suddenly forget everything and will all come back to Labour.
Labour electoral problems aren’t just Blair’s fault anyway, but a combination of things (Blair included, but not Blair alone).
(and btw, even if he doesn’t name the date, voters should already know he is going, shouldn’t they?)
clearly Blair has decided to run as the tory candidate for the London Mayoralty. After all, he did tell us that Ken would be a disaster for London, and he’s much more of a Conservative than Greg Dyke.
The Q2 price on Blairswitch looks to have dropped from about 2.5 to 1.55 in the last few days. Most of that appears to have been about 1500 pounds placed in one go. If Blair does announce his departure in April, Q2 is a certainty no matter how Betfair interpret the rules.
This might sound a little more dramatic than it really is - 1500 pounds is not a huge amount of money in the big scheme of things and the 2.5 was the extreme end of a spike but even so, it would tie in with Mike’s analysis.
10. True Andrea but while he’s still in office and refuses to name a date, back a successor etc voters would still like to deal him a blow. Locals are so often used to send a protest vote, I can see it happening again here. If Blair sets a date voters could start to think about the issues more?
10. Nope. But it opens Brown’s flank to his enemies. Blair knows that. If he does that knowing that. It’s because he wants that. Part of the justification for him surviving September was to take an expected hit in May. Even appearing to duck now says it all.
Maybe Labour will spin that the bad results are due on actually being leaderless on election time
12 My thinking too, David. At a modest cost, I have now squared up my Q2 and Q3 positions. I was previously a Q3 man, but this could be a Q2 announcement and it’s only sensible to cover the possibility.
The £1,500 isn’t mine. (I wish.) The smaller recent amounts are.
Did the call have a snide tone?
14 - Punter: Agree totally!
10 - Yes, Andrea - I agree with most of that. You and I both know that these elections aren’t totally about Blair. We also know that the media won’t spare him a bashing for the results whatever he does.
I still think though, on balance, that Labour will do slightly better if Blair resigns because there’ll be rather more favourable media coverage of him for the next few days.
19. Steven “I still think though, on balance, that Labour will do slightly better if Blair resigns because there’ll be rather more favourable media coverage of him for the next few days”
and it would obscure other parties for the last few days of the campaign. It would be Blair, Labour, Blair, Labour, Brown, McD, MM and Deputy contenders going around asking nominations, Labour.
20. However there would be the strong of Hazel Blears parading herself and her smile on all TV screens as Party Chairman to declare how great Tony has been. That can destroy the turnout
Maybe tomorrow is the day that Yates of the Yard comes for his man.
The other interpretation I can think of that would tie in with the message (and the market movements) is that the announcment won’t come from Blair but from Miliband, publicly supporting Brown’s candidacy. He’s been edging that way for a while and might have finally decided that it’s just not worth it this time: he’s young enough to have at least one more go when he’d have a better chance.
The two scenarios aren’t entirely unconnected. If it is Blair, then that would put Miliband in a very awkward position. If he stands and Labour does OK on May 3, Brown will walk it and Miliband will do badly. If he doesn’t stand and Labour do badly, then some will blame him for bottling it and lumbering Labour with an unpopular leader (ignoring the lack of evidence that Miliband would do better). If Blair announces and Miliband waits until after May 3 then he’ll get blamed for creating uncertainty and appear opportunistic or to be dithering (depending on how the media / his opponents want to play it).
Miliband backing Brown would clear the way for Blair to step down before May 3.
23.”The other interpretation I can think of that would tie in with the message (and the market movements) is that the announcment won’t come from Blair but from Miliband, publicly supporting Brown’s candidacy.”
Maybe Miliband will announce he has been seduced (by stjohn) and that he will run.
20. TBH obscuring other parties should be the very very last thing they want. This is a mid term election. If they make it all about them, it won’t make this electio in May any better quite the contrary.
23 B plus for effort, David, but it’s not entirely convincing.
Miliband could have easily put his position beyond doubt at the recent Robinson interview. To do so now, so soon after, looks a bit odd.
Personally I don’t see there’s anything wrong with Miliband standing, as long is it doesn’t look like he’s being pressured into it by some sort of Blairite mafia.
If Blair does make an announcement tomorrow, that will trigger a contest and Miliband could very easily say ‘ Well if Meacher and McDonnell (and maybe Clarke) are standing, I may as well too.’ That’s rather different to the previous scenario in which everybody seemed to be publicly encouraging him to bop Brown on the nose, while they held his coat.
25. well, it depends on what kind of coverage. If it’s “Oh, how great he was. We will miss him now he has gone after spending 2 years trying to get rid of him” for 2 days, he can’t be all that bad.
I’m not a fan of all his media performances, but he’s usually considered as a good media operator, I wouldn’t be surprised if he can pull off a hearth warming goodbye speech the day before the election
26.”if Meacher and McDonnell (and maybe Clarke) are standing, I may as well too.’”
MM and McD were standing also yesterday, also a month ago, I don’t think they can be used as an excuse to enter the contest.
27. The surprise would be if anyone listened.
28 Yes, that’s true Andrea, but the point is he would be responding to a definite event - Blair’s actual resignation - rather than the urgings of people who just want to see somebody take on GB.
Might be a small difference, but enough to justify a perfectly reasonable u-turn.
Anyway, it could be a lively day tomorrow so I’m off for an early nite. (There are a few Creatures about too.
)
Nite everybody.
30. Peter, I would find it pretty pathetic, more than reasonable, but it’s just a personal view (He could have chosen Reid’ strategy to say “I’ll speak when the event occours”). In the end it’s all a personal view
Btw, yesterday McDonnell was trying to spin that the best way to get rid of Blair is to vote Labour on May (and join the party and vote for him). How would a “Vote Labour, Get rid of Blair” slogan sound?
For whats it worth, and being from NI I’m hardwired for conspiracies..
I did once theorise (and foolishly posted) that, in the event that Tony lost his peacemaker legacy with the failure of the NI process he would up sticks early on the following logic:
a) He had nothing to stay for
b) He would effectively put any election defeat in May firmly in Gordon’s lap
c) He could publicly claim that he thought it was best standing down before the May elections in order to help the party and hold that stance with a straight face.
Now that the NI process is all on, I suppose the above could actually still apply.
Having said that, I think that these elections can always be said to be Gordon’s anyway and a post election date to hand in his notice is still just as likely.
The main current issue is that a Blair resignation notice just after the elections (if we assume he stays on in post until the new leader is chosen) and the apparently proposed c7 week timespan for electing and appointing a new leader is periliously on the cusp of Q2 & Q3. I’m green on both but am better off on Q2 because I estimated a) Tony would go very soon after the elections and b) it wouldnt take more than 6 weeks to get a new leader and deputy.
Bear in mind though that a Blair notice to quit before the election would not necessarily instantly trigger the succcession process and decisively swing things from Q3 to Q2. The succession process may not, and logically so, officially kick off until after the elections.
Thus finding out that Tony’s announcement date is before the elections still might not effect the actual date of succession as much as we may think depending on what way the party wants to run with it. The announcement date may be more significant in political terms than in betting terms.
Just a thought..or 10.
31. Good Night Peter
Ed Miliband, younger brother of David boosts his profile by apperaing on Question Time. Maybe he’s preparing for his leadership campaign and David Miliband knew something we didn’t when he ruled out standing.
I see that the leader of the Lib Dims in Darlington has nominated a BNP candidate!!!!!!!
So much for the LDs being the “nice” party! Some of us knew their true nature anyway.
26. Perhaps Gordon has made him an offer he can’t refuse since then?
I don’t know - it’s a piece of speculation that I thought tied in with the facts, which are pretty scanty so far. You’re quite right that Miliband could have made the announcement at a time of his choosing in the last few weeks (or months), but he’ll have to do it sooner or later. It’s Gordon’s way to try and tie things up in advance and leave as little to chance as possible. Or Blair may still be planning a pre-election announcement and this could be a bit of necessary housekeeping that he’s might be forced into.
I’m not dismissing Mike’s view by any means; simply offering an alternative. There are no doubt others that people could come up with that are equally plausible - it might have nothing to do with the leadership election (directly), it might be a policy announcment. Strange timing perhaps, but not impossible.
What does it add to the import of this story by ‘leaking’ it ahead of time to Mike Smithson’s ansafone? I can only assume that someone is trying to rig the betting markets.
35. Ed is a Brownite even if I suppose he’ll back David if he stands for leader.
Could it not possibly be something to do with Inspector Yates?
Mike,
Well if it happens pb.com can claim the scoop over first post. I posted this idea here on the 17th April, comment 140. It was picked up by Iain Dale yesterday. Is it the real deal or a just a butterfly flaps its wing. Well you will have to wait and see I suppose!
Populus-Scotland
Constituencies (and changes compared to March Populus poll):
SNP 34 (-4)
Lab 30 (+2)
LD 18 (+3)
Con 13 (-1)
List vote
SNP 34 (-1)
Lab 27 (-3)
LD 18 (+4)
Con 14 (unchanged)
Greens 3
A lot of the comments above overlook the fact that it’s a 3-stage process. TB has always said that in due course he’ll announce when he plans to step down, e.g. “I’ll step down as Labour leader on May 9″. This would be a reasonable time to do that, before we get totally immersed in the local elections. The second stage is when he and John Prescott actually resign, which will trigger the leadership and deputy elections. The third is when the new leader takes over as PM after winning the Labour leadership contest (you’re not PM till the Queen says you are). If someone thinks that he’ll just get up one morning and say out of the blue “I resign!” they’ve misunderstood.
I don’t see that it has any particular impact on the local elections - we all know he’s retiring in a few weeks’ time, and letting us know the exact date isn’t going to change many votes either way. Nor does it settle the Q2/Q3 question. If he resigns on say May 31, it could easily be July before the new PM takes over. My guess is in fact Q2, but it’s (more or less) just a guess.
the poll in the Times
Constituency SNP 34 Lab 30 Lib 18 Con 13 Others 6
List SNP 34 Lab 27 Lib 18 Con 14 Others 7 (green 3 within that figure)
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article1680122.ece
42 Changes compared to 2003 election
FPTP vote
SNP + 10.2%
Lab -4.6%
LD +2.7%
Con -3.6%
List vote
SNP +13.1%
Lab -2.3%
LD +6.2%
Con -1.5%
Green -3.9%
and with this, good night from me!
42 - dash! he beat me again.
43 - A 3 stage process, Nick?
We’ve already had 2 stages. Blair saying that he’ll not seek a 4th term and Blair saying that he’ll resign within 12 months of last year’s Labour conference.
So if you’re saying that we’ve got 3 more stages to come then it’s a clearly a 5 stage process.
Most TV sitcoms have shorter runs than this resignation process has had so far - but few of them are quite as hilarious!
43. I can’t understand the rationale behind splitting the first and second stages. Blair announced in 2004 that he’d step down this parliament, then announced last year that he’d step down this year. Both announcements undermined his authority but dealt with an immediate crisis. But to pre-announce now by a matter of a few weeks at most seems pointless; much better surely to have done with it. Does he really want people contrasting the scenes of hope and jubilation in 1997 with those ten years on, just before a set of elections? That’s not to say he won’t do it, but I do question who would gain from all the coverage.
43. Ummm, interesting…May the 9th (yes I know you put it as an example) would actually be really nice.
Last major sighting of Tony before his notice period officially starts..Belfast, Stormont watching the original Dr No and former member of the IRA (?) & former Art Garfunkel lookalike, do the the previously impossible and open the doors on a power sharing administration.
Beyond the purely political cynicism though, the issue is that the leadership & deputy selection process itself. Apparently it is taking 7 weeks which, for punters, wouldnt allow much slippage from the moment Tony actually puts in his formal notice. Any delay in firing up the selection process could, just, run us into Q3 for the official handover, assuming a notice formal period starts shortly at some point within a week of the May elections.
Announcing when he’s putting in his notice, weeks before he formally puts it in, then working his notice seems a bit pedantic in itself. Perhaps then there has to be a more substantive reason for making an announcement about an announcement, either to do with electoral fortunes for the party in May..or to do with internal politics of the party.
That assumes of course that there is an announcement in the offing.
I’m wondering if this is Tony resignation date related at all but can’t help myself but pontificate about the possibilities…I get the same condition after watching Big Brother for more than an hour….
Re Scotland - 3.9% seems low for the Greens when we were talking 5.5% - 6% previously - or is there something I’m missing?
re 42 and 44 - now I was looked for those figures too but got distracted. Anyway plugging them into my calculator gives
SNP 46 (24 FPTP)
Lab 41 (34 FPTP)
LD 23 (12 FPTP)
C 17 (11 FPTP)
Gr 1
Other 1 (FPTP)
so a retaining of power by LD/Lab a possibility. With the Greens on 3% the 6 and under bet looks appealing.
What an intriguing article Mike, its like a scene from “all the presidents men”!
If the mole does have sources in No11 is this going to be a taster for a Brown style “open government”?
If this is about Blair’s departure date then I agree with this comment @7 “If it is true that Blair is to make a pre-election announcement then it suggests to me that No10 are expecting far worse election results for Labour than had previously been thought.” Risky strategy though because we have been here before with Blair’s announcement in the run up to the 05′GE, don’t think the public will like this type of cynical manipulation.
The other option is that someone is going to announce they have the requisite amount of nominations to launch a leadership challenge. But either way, it would seem to be crazy for Blair to be announcing departure dates or candidates to announce a challenge to the leadership before the official vacancy and all in the middle of important elections?
52. Chris I would have thought that, subject to them agreeing, another Lib/Lab adminstration was almost certain, even in the event it was an operating minority.
Could it all be about Blair being “forced” to endorse Brown as his successor because no credible Blairite candidate could be persuaded to stand in the elections? Or maybe there will be announcement that there will be no contest at all, and it will be a Brown coronation with him going round the country to meet his subjects with the Deputy contenders sweating it out at the hustings while he gives the regal wave?
Better stop before I get carried away with conspiracy theories.
Those figures above would make the choice of a presiding officer interesting. I’d imagine that Lab and LD wouldn’t want it. SNP wouldn’t touch it with a bargepole because that would hand power to the LD/Lab coalition and it would thus probably be a Tory shoe-in.
52&54. Nicol Stephen seemed to get into a bit of difficulty on this very subject on Newsnight Scotland, in fact he was terrible. He did say he thought that a rainbow coalition to keep the SNP out was unobtainable. Most priceless comment was regards a coalition partnership with the largest party, contemplated even going into opposition if no agreement could be reached with either the SNP or Labour! A wee bit arrogant I thought.
55. No come on Chris give it free reign, everybody else is.
By the law of averages most of what is posted so far is probably wrong so what the hell..
57.Forgot to mention that the interviewer also pressed him on a possible coalition with Labour again to keep the SNP out even if they were the largest party. I think that would be incredible difficult to sell to the voters?
43 - Tony Blair said he would serve a “full third term.” So why are you saying it would be reasonable for him to announce he’s resigning next month? There are still two or three years of this term to go, unless you expect an early general election.
58.Yokel, I did wonder if after all this speculation we end up with a damp squid of announcement of some dry and totally incomprehensible economic announcement from Brown as he moved the financial goalposts around.
Boring, Rik (36). Very boring… Even pathetic……. This appeared yesterday or even the day before. Please try to keep up.
Presumably you are so busy struggling to win a seat from an excellent Lib Dem councilor in the Peppard ward of Reading that you cannot keep up with the latest on PBC.
57. It isnt a huge leap to see the Lib Dems and Labour between them cobbling together enough seats in May to get a majority.
I suppose it all depends too on how close the SNP get to a single party majority, but only a severe Labour sit at home would surely see that happen. If they got reasonably close but not quite enough to make a majority even with the help of a one or maybe two fringe outfits, I suppose the Lib Dems are stuck in a tough position as the likely kingmakers.
I didn’t think (someone can tell me otherwise) that they really wanted to work with the SNP but then, if Labour does take a big pasting and indeed the Lib Dems not perform particularly well themselves, working with Labour again may not do them much good.
re 63. Not on these figures. They’d only be 1 seat short.
Rik, why did you cry off from the pb.com party? Canvassing?
61. Splitting of the current Treasury functions or something gripping like that eh. Well it would be an announcement of betting significance. The next chancellor market…
Any prices on Lab/LD retaining in power after the election anywhere?
Knife edge stuff potentially.
QT tonight…. what odds on Milliband jr being next Labour leader but one?
Or next Chancellor?
63.I think that it would be incredible damaging for the Libdems to prop up a smaller Labour administration in Holyrood if there is a real swing against them in these elections. It could damage the prospects of Scottish Libdems MP’s at Westminster in the the next GE if people think that they will do the same there in a hung parliament?
What happens if no formal coalition to able to command a majority is formed, do we look at minority coalitions in Scotland?
My own instinct is that Labour & Lib Dems will get in again one way or another. My major concern in counter to that is a big Labour stay at home. That imponderable is why I havent got a bean on the elections other than a small bet on SNP as largest party because it offered value.
69. Not very good news for David Milliband that his own brother admitted that his comments about Brown when he was last on QT “had not been his finest hour”!
70. Agreed but it is the most stable running option if it can command a majority of any sort.
The Lib Dems could be rightly caught here in a difficult situation.
16 & 12
That was me and I was shocked to find it matched within 2 minutes -and I don’t know anything (other than the logic I outlined a couple of nights ago).
Fantastic analogy by BBC political reporter on the Radio 4 News suggesting that Gordon Brown must be wishing that he can do a John Major style act on succeeding Tony Blair…
There’s something for Labourites to chew on.
I don’t think Labour would go for a 3rd coalition with the Lib Dems on these figures. At present the MSP split within the coalition is roughly 3-to-1 in Labour’s favour (50:17).
If it became 2-to-1 or less, Labour would have to concede more of the ‘big’ portfolios within the Executive (at least one of Health, Education, Finance) to the Lib Dems. That would be hard for Labour MSPs to stomach.
71.I have to say that despite the sudden downpour of Scottish polls in the run up to the elections I still maintain that it is going to be very hard to call the result. I still think that voter turnout, tactical voting and the new voting system could throw the pre election polling results into disarray?
Also think that unlike the previous two elections the possible coalition scenario’s are much reduced. I really could see the SNP being the largest party but trying to run as a minority administration rather than doing coalition deals with other parties?
I honestly think that Labour are in trouble up here, there is a real sense of anger being felt by people who do not even normally get involved in politics or vote.
77. Whats the feeling on Labour getting out those who would still vote Labour but might sit at home?
76. Fair point.
78.I have to say that I am not as involved in this campaign as previous ones because of a serious family illness. But I cannot remember ever seeing so many people keen to talk politics and openly discussing and being aware of which candidate to vote tactically for to remove Labour. Hamilton Nat comments about the situation in Hamilton are being echoed to me by relatives down there and that is one of Labour’s heartlands. Up in the North East I expect them to yet again reduce an already shrinking vote.
Ed Miliband on QT came over as even geekier than his brother without the charm and with a supercillious attitude all of his own.
I really began to worry (as distinct from oppose) a Brown premiership when I saw how he, like his master, looked totally disinterested in what anyone else had to say, and was happy to peddle shameless spin about everything.
If the Labour party foist this conceited Addams family on us they will be accepting an even more authoritarian administration than the present one and the only consequence surely can be that they can expect to be out of power for a very long time.
Where are the Labour people-politicians of the past? People that you may disagree with on policy and party but understood they had the same basic democratic instincts as the rest of us? Wilson, Callaghan, Jenkins, Healey,……. even Kinnock……even, dare I say it, Blair.
Sorry to hea rof the illness, ChrisD - hope it works out all right.
81: Tories always admire Labour leaders when they’re gone…
82 - You’re a good bloke! And we all echo your thoughts.
83 - Naughty, naughty….upto a point
82&84.Thanks Nick and JohnO.
80. I’m a relatively distant watcher of this campaign. I found the issue of Labour turnout as the big issue in deciding what way my own money would go, physically and theoretically.
I felt that Labour, even allowing for a shedding of support, if they got their core out they would not be too far behind the SNP, if at all (within a couple of seats was my very rough guess). A siginificant stay at home, however, combined with the shedding of support already would equal one outcome, a thumping with the SNP coming out decisively ahead with an undreamed of number of seats.
What I wasn’t fully aware of is the potentially very high level of tactical voting that you suggest could be on the cards.
Given all that, my money is staying in my pocket at this time as I can’t make head nor tail of it other than the SNP looked a solid enough proposition to get the most seats at evens or just below even money. I wouldnt however, add to that bet at the current odds floating around for the SNP right now.
Your suggestion of things being too complex to decisively call has just added weight to that decision not to pile in to the SNP at current odds. I’ll leave any seat markets to others as well at this stage. Maybe something attractive will crop up closer to the day.
Gonna be interesting thats for sure.
24. Andrea.”Miliband seduced by St.John”. This is not a headline I’m expecting to read however it might favour my betting position!
Chris D best wishes.
57 Chris D
So its not inconceivable that the SNP could win most seats and yet the Labour/Lib Dems could retain power. Would McConnell remain first minister in that event ?
PP and Ladbrokes have alligned the first minister odds with the most seats odds - perhaps there is value in backing the SNP and McConnell ?
Ed Miliband on Question Time - a car crash. He’s even geekier than his bro’ and when someone disagrees with him he has this look of complete contempt on his face. And parrots the line..zzzzzzz
I hope to God this is not the future of the Labour Party because if it is then the LabourParty has no future. Why in God’sname don’t they get some decent back-benchers on who have not had charisma by-pass operation.
There are many:
Obviously, John McDonnell; Alan Simpson; Peter Kilfoyle. Austin Mitchell. I have sent many e-mailsto Question Time on this matter but the only left-winger who gets airtime is Tony Benn ( wonderful man but not an MP any more) Grrrrrrrr
83 I don’t admire them but I am sure those on my list are not essentially authoritarians and I can understand where they are coming from wile strongly disagreeing with them. But people like Balls and the junior Milliband are glassy eyed believers and they have no doubts that they know what is good for me and you.
And with complete conviction in their ’cause’ they will purvey any spin that suits, take useful fools with them as long as they are useful and dump them afterwards.
Forgive me for diving in without reading all the thread, but I have to wonder is this is not another Maggie is dead thread?
I can’t see Tony making an announcement tomorrow, I can’t see Gordon giving up the ghost.
The only potential statement I could see is David Miliband doing a Sherman or a Mo Udall, who said:
If nominated, I shall run to Mexico. If elected, I shall fight extradition
For more on actual denials V non denial denials see here:
http://aconservatives.blogspot.com/2007/04/if-nominated-i-shall-run-to-mexico-if.html
I don’t think you will see anything more significant.
That said if Brown manages to clip Miliband’s wings like that it does confirm my view that Brown will kill any competition potential or otherwise.
87.”What I wasn’t fully aware of is the potentially very high level of tactical voting that you suggest could be on the cards.”
In some wards Labour might have put in too many candidates and this might split their possible already reduced votes, also some voters might think that they have to fill in all their options and that could further dilute say Labour’s vote in an area?
Another interesting twist might be that despite the blitz by Vote Scotland to explain the new voting system people might not understand it and make mistakes ie put a cross instead of a number, remember we have e-counting this time.
Re 83, Nick Palmer,
and Labour leaders admire ours, when they’re gone!
Yokel - take your money out of your pocket - Labour will do enough to win the vast majority of fptp seats in the west of Scotland. This latest poll shows a too small Nat lead in the constituency section for them to win enough seats to make the difference.
The SNP are pretty useless campaigners and cannot accept targeting fptp seats (if they did they would have to accept they aren’t a ‘national’ party of Scotland).
I’m glad that finally people are waking up to the Blair resignation strategy I’ve been arguing for months.
A resignation announcement 48 hours before polling day is the only way Blair can choose his departure date on his terms. It’s unlikely to save many Labour seats, but it does gets Brown off the hook of responsibility for the fall out of these elections.
It also guarantees Blair 10 years as PM.
Blair for all his faults is not a Tory and would want to make sure that the Tories will lose even if Brown is leader…
89.Paul M, this scenario was put to Nicol Stephen tonight on Newsnight Scotland and he seemed reluctant to answer the question, I really think it would be electoral suicide for both parties and could harm both of them come the next GE.
I think that McConnell is very damaged goods and what ever the outcome I would be surprised if he managed to stay in post as leader of the.
93.Meant to add a couple of links to my comments about Labour possible putting up too many candidates in some area’s. This article on the Herald vote 2007 makes this comment.
“It carries a risk for parties if they put up too many candidates in a ward. That could split their support and let through rivals. For that reason, parties are putting up only the number of councillors they expect to get elected. Only where parties are confident of strong support are they putting up more than one candidate. An effective party campaign should tell voters in different parts of a ward to place different candidates first. Working the system that way has been effectively managed in Northern Ireland by both Sinn Fein and the Democratic Unionist Party.”
Link to full article.
http://election.theherald.co.uk/newvotingsystem/
Saw a better article explaining the link to Labour in particular but can’t found it now.
Even if Miliband were to categorically state that he would not be standing, that would not be an absolute guarantee that he would not stand. Look at Alex Salmond!
From the Guardian:
“David Miliband has told senior Blairites in the past 48 hours that he will not be standing for the leadership under any circumstances, and that he will be a contributor to, and not a critic of, a Gordon Brown government.”
http://politics.guardian.co.uk/labourleadership/story/0,,2061712,00.html
62 - Tressage there you are!! I wondered which stone you had been hiding under!
65 - SBS - sorry old boy - was leading a session! We will be down your way shortly though and hope to catch you at home
A May2nd resignation and all the huge media attention focussed on Tony as we go into the elections?
The ‘oh shit - what have we done’ impact on the elctorate? The immediate pro-Thatcher bounce that followed her standing down?
Hell, Tony would really have to like Gordon to give him that much of a gift for the elections.
Start rearranging your outcome predictions now though!
83 - Except for Neil Kinnock. I don’t think any Tory ever has had or ever will have a good word to say about Kinnock. Apart from “Awwwwriiiiiiiigggggghhhhhtttttt!”. That’s a good word about Kinnock…
Ok having read everybody’s conspiracy theories re Blair Brown Miliband etc the most convincing is Miliband to declare for Brown.
Because
The source is no 11
Blair standing down before elections would be a tactical howler / admission of defeat. A John major type tactic. Blair would never do it - totally out of character
Knifing his successor is no way to preseve his historical legacy. I suspect he is reconciled to a Brown premiership since the attempted coup last year.
On leaders - many tories grudgingly acknowledge Kinnock’s role as Moses saving his party but failing to lead it to the promised land - mainly to undermine the scale of Blair’s achievement in 97
102 - yes odd that Miliband hasn’t expressly and unequivocally declared for Brown afaik.
TBH, I don’t think anyone else will until after the Assembly / Local / etc Elections are finished.It will run the risk of being seen as presenting a divided party and contributing to the bad results on May 3rd - if there are any
Far better to stay sctum and declare after the elections that there is a need for a rethink about the parties future and allow yourself to go forward then.
Having said that, I am 70-30% that Miliband won’t stand this time - at the moment! Am nearly 99% certain there will be an election, but only c66% certain it won’t be a straight Brown vs McDonnell run off.
101. Lord Tebbit was asked what Neil Kinnock’s best contribution to politics had been, and he replied “keeping the Conservative party in power for nine years”.
Well, he’s posted it:
http://www.thefirstpost.co.uk/index.php?menuID=1&subID=1331