Have the markets got Scotland right?
April 20th, 2007
Populus shows big Lib Dem surge
Our best betting price chart shows the changes since January in the best odds that are available on the SNP and Labour in next month’s election for the Scottish Parliament.
A new Populus poll in the Times this morning has the following shares for Scotland compared with a similar survey last month.
Constituencies SNP 34 (-4): LAB 30 (+2): LD 18 (+3): CON 13 (-1).
List vote SNP 34 (-1): LAB 27 (-3): LD 18 (+4): CON 14 (nc) GRN 3
The significant feature is the big growth in the Lib Dem vote. A worry for the SNP and Labour is that Scottish polls have a history of over-stating the two parties and of considerably understating the Tory share.
In 2003 the Tories got 16.65 in the first section and 15.5% of the list votes - both figures which are higher than today’s survey. Given that there have been big changes nationally in the past four years I think it’s safe to assume that the totals that Populus reports today are very much on the low side.
The question is whether there is any overstatement of the SNP and Labour votes and if so by how much?
My guess is that the SNP will still end up as winners but that this race might be tighter than it appears.
Mike Smithson
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I always think that a 4% change is the point at which you can’t put it down to sampling error.
1 - that may be arguable, although i can’t remember the last time a Scottish poll didn’t result in one of the parties moving by at least 4%.
Well a 4% surge is always welcome, but the feeling I get reading posts re: Scotland here is that the swings may be local rather than national - there may be an anti-incumbency factor as we saw in the locals last year.
And I was in Norwich with work yesterday, so volunteered my services to do some canvassing in the evening. Substantial Green support as they have piled resources into Norwich, but LD support seemed to be as strong as it has been before, and I think there is quiet confidence. And I saw my first ‘Vote Saxon’ poster as well
I’ve been pondering all inght about the Mole (see last thread) and two thoughts emerge -
could Gordon be planinng to go for the World Bank presidency if Paul Wolfowitz has to step down over his current problems?
Is John Denham - the minister who resigned over the Iraq war - going to be Gordon’s favoured choice for deputy?
3 - tpfkar - we have a Roman party candidate in Reading, so I suppose we could have “Vote Roman” posters soon!
Mike (4) - No, I think the President of the World Bank is always from the US.
Have you a bar chart showing sales of the book, Mike - selling out here!
Rik at 5,
What is the Roman party’s stance against alien invasion?
(The “Vote Saxon” posters are a running theme in the latest Doctor Who series (and were also spotted at the end of Torchwood))
Mike, the mole believes that Miliband (is he just DM yet?) has made the ‘best decision of his short political career’, by not standing for the leadership. Possibly. History suggests otherwise. Us punters take a fair bit of notice of history: we call it, self-importantly, studying ‘form’.
If you say the mole has good sources, then he has good sources. Maybe we should use the mole’s information rather than his tips.
Andy - It is OK, Rome is in the EU - All EU citizens have a right to come here. And we can go to Tuscany etc.
O/T France - Last polls
Publishing polls will be forbidden starting tonight at midnight.
Last 4 polls
Ipsos for Le Point
NS 30(=) SR 23(-0.5) FB 18(-0.5) JMLP 13(=)
2nd round NS 53.5 SR 46.5 (=)
IFOP
NS 28(=) SR 22.5(=) FB 20(+1) JMLP 13(+0.5)
2nd round NS 51(-2) SR 49(+2)
TNS Sofres for Le Figaro
NS 28(-0.5) SR 24(-1) FB 19.5(+0.5) JMLP 14(+1)
2nd round NS 53(+2) SR 47(-2)
CSA for Le Parisien
NS 27(=) SR 26(+1) FB 17(-2) JMLP 16(+1)
2nd round NS 50 / SR 50 (=)
Miliband has had his “Portillo moment” ?
7 - I won’t name them, but someone at the pb.c party said to me that ‘you don’t look much like the person on my signature link!’
O/T France - Last update of my poll of polls
sarkozy 28.17 royal 23.92 bayrou 18.08 le pen 13.83
2nd round sarkozy 51,92 / royal 48,08
I’ve looked at the entries in the prediction competition and I understand that these polls are not considered accurate by many of you.
I will post an entry before saturday night and hope that I won’t lose all credibility on sunday night!
14 Some wide variations in those polls, CfP. Looks like somebody is going to have oeuf sur le visage.
re 13. Thanks Chris for everything - you have done a great job.
Mike Smithson
4.”Is John Denham - the minister who resigned over the Iraq war - going to be Gordon’s favoured choice for deputy? ”
Mike, but if Blair goes just after the locals, there would be just few weeks to launch a bid and I don’t think it’s realistically achievable
4. When is the Mole’s column out, what time of day?
14- Yes indeed… IMHO CSA is tryning to cover itself for any accusation if either bayrou is behind le pen or royal in front of sarkozy. The others deliberately announce wide leads for sarkozy and le pen under 15%… we’ll see who has best estimated the le pen vote (always the main challenge for French pollsters).
O/t. There may be value in Q3 on Blairswitch.
David Herdson pointed out at post 12 on last night’s ‘Mole’ thread that the Q2 price had moved in sharply over the last couple of days with the bulk of the money coming from a single bet. The implication, I think, was that someone might have inside knowledge. Others may have reached the same conclusion - including PtP? - thus entrenching the original move in the price. But at post 72 Alexi says that the large bet was his and was not based on any inside info. If this is true then the market has been distorted by the view of a single punter and there may be value in Q3.
19 Seems to be that Tony Blair will announce on May 9th. See First Post.
Switch date July 2nd then
20.Link to the mole’s article in first post.
http://www.thefirstpost.co.uk/index.php?menuID=1&subID=1331
Interestingly Nick Palmer made this comment last night and the date he used as an example was May 9th!
“A lot of the comments above overlook the fact that it’s a 3-stage process. TB has always said that in due course he’ll announce when he plans to step down, e.g. “I’ll step down as Labour leader on May 9″. This would be a reasonable time to do that, before we get totally immersed in the local elections.”
19 You could be right, James F. Can I just clarify my own position, so that nobody gets misled?
I’ve already won plenty on Blair Switch and since the end of March I’ve just been tinkering about with my Q2/Q3 positions to see if I could squeeze a few more pennies out of the market, without risking much in the process. I’ve been fiddling about with flipflopping favorites (always an amusing pastime
) and backing whichever is above evens, hoping that the position reversed so that I could lay off at a risk free profit. It worked, up to a point, but unexpectedly heavy backing of Q2 rather scotched my plans and I ended up longer on Q3 and shorter on Q2 than I intended.
Last night’s mysterious call raised the possibility that the game could end suddenly with me holding the parcel in the form of a couple of hundred pounds worth of Q2 liabilities. At a small cost, I was able to hedge this and am now back to a small profit (about £80) for either result.
As to what will actually happen, I really don’t know. I’ve changed my mind three times in the last week, so naturally I wouldn’t be sticking my neck out either way.
Interesting article Mike. I would comment but I don’t know enough about politics in Scotland.
That said well done for selling out on Amazon!
You’ll be a best selling author soon!
What day of the week in May 9th?
Thanks for link Ted and comments ptp. Seems to confirm my opinion.
O/T - seeing a few more Labour posters in Swansea West. Only a couple of LibDems. I have seen no others.
Received what looed like one of those free rags through the door yesterday - “Wales Observer” I think it was called. Blue masthead, little Welsh flag in the corner. Turned out to be a LibDem propaganda rag! They are clever, aren’t they?
“looked like” even - or was that a Freudian slip?
Re 25, Andrea a Wednessday. (Day after restoration of devolution.)
William Hills have this morning made David Miliband 4th favourite at 5/1 for DEPUTY leader ahead of Hain, Harman and Blears who are confirmed candidates. Ladbrokes are 16/1 in contrast if anyone think’s he would now be interested in the number two job they’re the place to look. Maybe running for deputy could be a way of Miliband denying Johnson the deputy crown and put him ahead in the pecking order for Brown’s successor? Who can tell.
On the prospects of a Miliband leadership bid I think Alan Johnson’s and Neil Kinnock’s forthright interventions this week have made a difference to the dynamics of it all - David would want and need a broader platform of support other than Blairite ultras and ex-ministers. If David Miliband doesn’t stand for leader, then he came very, very close to doing so, office and staffed campaign team identified etc.
New thread on the Blair exit
re 25 - it’s a Wednesday.
back to topic - as I was saying last night this latest poll points to the possibility of Lab/Lib holding on 1 seat short (solved by getting a Tory to stand as Presiding Officer). The coalition could hardly have said to have lost its mandate if it’s only lost 3 seats (that’s a far smaller percentage than Lab lost in 2005), despite the SNP overtaking Lab as the largest party. Someone mentioned a SNP largest party, McConnell First Minister double - sounds interesting.
Even if I were a betting man, I’d've stayed clear of the “Blair switch” market, since obviously none of the principals care tuppence whether he actually goes on June 30 or July 1.
As to Brown’s future, when does Wolfowitz’s term of office end? Despite Icarus, I don’t think there’s a rule that his job has to go to a Yank, and ISTR positive noises from parts of the US establishment about Brown as a candidate. I can certainly imagine a Democratic president looking on him favourably (they don’t use the position to reward fundraisers, do they?) once he’s lost the next election.
35 - Yes, assuming he looses the next election!
Re 30, Henry G, What he had an office already? Wow!
Re 34, Redflump, how did you read my mind and answer my post before I had posted it?
29/31. Thanks Chris and Benedict.
30. Henry, how is the Deputy race going in terms of nominations?
I see you had Harriet up in County Durham (Sedgefield/Bishop Auckland) for the launch of lcoal campaign
Mike - so are you already working on a second edition of the book, for post-transition?
36. Benedict, I just can’t let statements like that go by without challenging them!
I predict a 30-40 seat majority for Labour at the next GE. You mark my words!
Re 39, Redflump, an overall majority?
Yes! You Tories will underestimate the Power of the Gord!
Re 41, Redflump, you think we underestimate the power of the dark side, but we know good will triumph in the end!
Coming back on thread.
To me it looks like the SNP will be up, but possibly only back to where they were at the first Holyrood election. Journalists love reporting the SNP because independence is such a good story. However, as Dan notes elsewhere, the Nats are generally pretty lousy campaigners- full of fightin’ talk but not very well organized. Meanwhile Labour still have a very strong grip in the West of Scotland FPTP seats. The demise of the far left might also help Labour hang on in several places along the Clyde.
Other interesting battlegrounds will be in Edinburgh, where Labour are facing a much stronger Lib Dem challenge and in the North East and Inverness, where the Lib Dems and SNP are going toe-to-toe.
As for the Scottish Conservatives- they continue to die out, but I do know quite a few formerly staunch Tories who will vote SNP this time. So the SNP may get a few more votes in Perth and Tayside, but not improve enough to knock out Labour in the West.
I think that only a rainbow coalition can deliver the keys to Bute House to Alex Salmond (who I do not think will win in Gordon, BTW), and I think the Lib Dems would even prefer a minority Labour government to that particular eventuality.
The problem in predicting Scotland is that there is not one single national election: there are a series of intensely regional contests, and polling information does not catch this, which is why Lib Dem support (strong in North and East- very weak in West) and Tory support(stronger in South and Tayside) is generally underestimated and the SNP overstated(more evenly distributed).
42. It will be like 1992 all over again - but on you! (except not followed by fag-end administration, but 4 years of Golden Brown, followed by someone nice and perky like DM or Yvette C. May have to bring in PR then!)
Re 44, Redflump, the difference between now and then is that David Cameron is no Neil Kinnock!
45. That remains to be seen!
45,Agreed in as much Neil Kinnock,in hindsight talked to the manual working classes,and did not realise sufficiently the need to reach out to the lower-middle classes,as was shown in the 92 election-for there to be a 7.6% gap between the two main parties was an unexpected shock.
It may be that DC and Kinnock share youth,spontaneity,and that DC may come across as insubstantail,a flip-flopper ,up against GB when he is ensconced in No.10
Re 47, Patrick, yes all we can do is speculate!
That said Cameron seems to be comming across reasonably well so far!
re 46, Redflump, OK we can agree on that
48,I would candidly admit,based on recent history,it may well turn out to be a bad thing for Labour to win a fourth term-looking back,I know a couple of Tories who wish they had narrowly lost in 92,in the hope Kinnock would have imploded in ome term (FWIW,I believe he would)But as you say,specualation-its too nice a day in Bournemouth to spend too long on a PC,so I’m off for now.Byeee!
Many thanks to Chris from Paris.
37. Well it’s going to be quite fluid but I don’t think Hain, Harman, Benn and Blears are assured a place on the ballot paper.
48 - OK Benedict - let’s agree on that!
49. Patrick - yes, 1992 was in retrospect a bad election for the Tories to win. However I would always prefer more years in office doing at least some of the things you were elected for, rather than the impotence of opposition.
51. Thanks Henry. Nick seemed confident about Hain.
I see that Cruddas has gone to visit MEPs. How many MEPs do you think he can get?
Is Michael Meacher bid dead or what? Who is supporting him (apart Simpson and Hopkins)?
49. It may well turn out to be a bad thing for them to have won a third term.
Re 52, Redflump in many ways I agree with you about 1992. Those years meant Blair had to become Thatcherite, or quite posibly more Thatcherite than Thatcher which locked in the progress of the previous years.
That said I think you will be beaten at the next GE.
55. And in the same way Cameron has to at least sound all social democratic, love the NHS, no tax cuts to get elected. Swings and roundabouts.
53. No idea on the MEPs for different candidates. Meacher’s bid has died. McDonnell is running out of time to get sufficient MPs.
Re 56, Redflump, you assume that the Conservative party doesn’t love the NHS, when in fact it does. That does not mean we don’t think there are things that could be done to make it better!
We have not promised “no tax cuts” we have in fact promised tax cuts over a parliament. Just not wreckless ones.
57. So far I think 7 MEPs out 19 have declared their support for some candidates (Honeyball, Skinner and Kinnock for Harman, Titley for Blears, Morgan for Hain and Cashman and Claude Moraes for Johnson).
I could have missed some declared though