Sean Fear on the local elections
April 20th, 2007
This week he makes his predictions
Last week, I explained the background to these local elections. This week, I shall outline my predictions.
Scotland is relatively easy to predict. The introduction of PR means that Labour would lose at least 100 council seats, even if their support stayed at its 2003 level. In all likelihood, Labour’s support will be lower than in 2003, and their loss of seats will be around 150. The SNP are likely to gain a similar number and there should be small net gains for the Conservatives and Lib Dems.
Labour are unlikely to retain overall control of more than three authorities, Glasgow, North Lanarkshire, and Midlothian. It is unlikely that any other authority will remain under the overall control of any one party, although several authorities should continue to elect majorities of independents.
In England, I would expect the notional vote shares to be Conservative 40%, Lib Dem 27%, Labour 24%.This will be different from the actual vote share, as the smaller parties and independents should win at least 15% of the total vote, and there are no elections in London.
I believe the Conservatives will gain around 750 seats, net, the Liberal Democrats will be broadly unchanged, and Labour will lose around 850 seats. The difference will be made up by gains for minor parties, principally the Greens and BNP.
I expect the Conservatives will gain the large majority of Gravesham, Lincoln, Corby, and Plymouth (from Labour) Bournemouth, Torbay, Uttlesford, and Shepway (from the Lib Dem.), and Chester, Crewe and Nantwich, Rugby, Bath & NE Somerset, South Gloucestershire, Braintree, South Derbyshire, Dover, Dartford, Crawley, Gedling, Waverley, and Mid Suffolk, (from no overall control). I believe the likeliest Conservative losses are Hyndburn (to Labour) and Thurrock (to no overall control). I do not anticipate the Conservatives winning overall control of Brighton & Hove.
I think the Liberal Democrats are likely to gain Rochdale, Hull, Bristol, Harborough, Woking and North Somerset (all from No Overall Control). In addition to the councils mentioned above, I consider they are likely to lose St. Alban’s to no overall control.
I believe Labour are likely to win Hyndburn, where they have performed very wll in by-elections. As well as the Councils mentioned above, I anticipate they will lose Blackburn & Darwen, Blackpool, Oldham, NW Leicestershire, Barnsley, Middlesborough, and Sheffield to No Overall Control.
There was just one by-election last night. Rhondda Cynon Taf CBC, Aberaman South. Plaid 675, Labour 667. This was a Plaid gain from Labour on a big swing.
Sean Fear, a London Tory, writes weekly for the site.
MessageSpace Advertising
I’m increasingly thinking that terrorism could become an issue in the closing stages of this campaign. The Operation Crevice trial is likely to end soon, and this will mean that damaging information regarding 7/7 will no longer be sub judice. If the jurors can reach a majority verdict in the next few days, this new information will spark a new debate about who knew what when, which could be very damaging to the government.
Luton could swing to LD - currently NoC (22-21-4-2 (Lab-LD-Con-Ind)), but LD would only have to win 3 more seats to gain control.
There are rumours and reports in Birmingham that Respect has become an ‘ethnic’ party. With the mass of positions and selections belonging to the same clan and the trots effectively being squeezed out.
While this development if true may bring them an extra seat or two It may also be the beggining of the end.
The next two weeks will be really interesting to see if they can restrain themselves from an overt harvesting of Clan votes.
Anyone heard anything similar , I know its unlikely with no London contest ?
In Luton, there are 4 Respect candidates - two from ethnic minorities, and two trots.
Sean - I agree with you re: smaller parties. I think the Greens and the BNP will pick up 40 seats each.
This is what the BBC are saying (worryingly) about Sandwell.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/6575333.stm
BB
Sean - do you think that the Tories will gain Vale of White Horse DC? They were ahead of Evan Harris in this area in 2005 (Evan won because the Oxford City area gave him a massive lead), and there are lots of close wards, with Labour are contesting some of the marginal wards (which will hit the Lib Dems). It’s also next door to Cameron’s seat, which should presumably help the Tories. Quite an interesting bell-weather council for how the Tories are doing in reviving against the Lib Dems, anyway.
4 how long can the trots and the islamists keep working together? One lot wants a centralised state controlled by an elite few that ensures perpetual poverty and misery for all in the name of a greater utopia at some future date and the other lot… oh, they’re the same.
hm - I think your seat share for the Tories is a little low in view of the large numbers of extra candidates, and the increase in unopposed Tories elected. I would guess that the Tories will gain between 750 and 1000 seats.
A number of those would be at the expense of Indpendents, so I think your gains for Others are at the top end of the scale. But a few strong local performances (Tendring First Sheppey First People First Party etc) would soon affect that.
I’m not convinced that Labour will go as low as 24%. Their support is pretty soft - but not softer than at the same time last year.
With local elections so much depends on relative turnout that I always think a lot rides on the news story dominating the media that morning. I suppose it will be Blair - and I don’t rule out people feeling a little premature nostalgia.
PS: Shepway is NOC isn’t it?
5. Interesting. Sandwell is certainly somewhere I would expect to see a significant gain for the BNP.
6. I just don’t know enough about Vale of the White Horse to predict it.
I suppose I ought to describe Shepway as NOC, although the majority of its councillors were elected as Liberal Democrats.
With the cash for honours file handed to the CPS the next few days could be very interesting. If the charges are dropped, I wouldn’t say Labour would benefit particularly (though they’ll be relieved) but if charges are brought I could very easily see this further damaging their local election prospects (a bit like Nanny Hewitt’s run in with the nurses and Prescott’s affair last year)
11. Sorry, should say “if no charges are brought” of course, not “charges are dropped!”
10 This is correct.
Last year gains and losses (councillors as well) were generally calculated on the position going into the elections. I prefer to take the last election outcome as the starting point, but I don’t think it is practical these days (especially given the varying dates councils were last elected).
8,”I think your seat share for the Tories is a little low in view of the large numbers of extra candidates, and the increase in unopposed Tories elected. I would guess that the Tories will gain between 750 and 1000 seats”
I would have thought that the majority of unopposed returns and assured seats for lack of opposition are in their safe wards and so the great majority of them are “hold” and won’t impact the gains prediction.
3. 4. The inevitable final stage of Labour’s disastrous multiculturalism…overtly ethnic political parties. The weird alliance of islamofascists and trots was never likely to last.
the cash for honours file has been handed to the CPS
11.”but if charges are brought I could very easily see this further damaging their local election prospects (a bit like Nanny Hewitt’s run in with the nurses and Prescott’s affair last year) ”
I wouldn’t want to be in Lab local candidates’ shoes if cahrges are brought 2 weeks before polling day. I would be very, very, very angry with those charged….
11. Key point here is surely that the contents of this file will leak out…probably bad for justice but not necessarily good for Labour electorally speaking.
Many thanks for the article Sean, I hope my election will be a Con gain!
Police hand honours file to CPS
Scotland Yard’s Assistant Commissioner John Yates
Assistant Commissioner John Yates has been heading up the inquiry
The file from the police investigation into whether people were nominated for honours in return for money has been handed over to prosecutors.
The year-long probe had widened in recent months to look into any attempt to pervert the course of justice.
Scotland Yard said that 136 people had been interviewed. They include Tony Blair and some of his closest aides.
The Crown Prosecution Service will now decide whether anyone should be charged. All involved deny wrongdoing.
A Scotland Yard spokesman said that what they consider to be their main file on the investigation was “a 216 page report with supportive material”.
He said there had been extensive consultation with the CPS during the inquiry, and this was the 12th police submission - in total they have handed over 6,300 documents.
He said it was now for the CPS to decide whether any charges should be brought.
The police inquiry began after it emerged that secret loans had been made to Labour before the 2005 general election, and that some lenders had subsequently been nominated for peerages.
The probe was widened to include the other main parties. Four people have been questioned under caution during the course of the inquiry, including Tony Blair’s chief fundraiser Lord Levy and Number 10 aide Ruth Turner.
No-one has been charged with any offence.
11 Matt1 - How quickly do you think the CPS are likely to move? What would be a reasonable, or normal time for them to make a decision and bring charges, if indeed any are brought?
21. Surely it will take weeks if not months for the CPS to decide? After a year’s investigation the file must be pretty big.
216 pages - 10 pages an hour ? Monday I would guess
23 The CPS works weekends?
Re Predictions, I agree with Sean Fear on the +750 Conservatives but only -800 Labour.
The Lib Dems are more of a puzzle because they have slipped a bit since 03 and this cycle of seats has them more stretched than any other group of local elections with half their councillors just trying to get re-elected.
Because the Lib Dems rely upon their ability to bring in resources from a wide area, that strength is diminished at these elections. So because of the stretch and their low polls I forecast 100 losses for LDs.
Re 21, Peter I think somewhere between 1 and 3 months, though what is in it is unlikely to be a surprise to the CPS so it may be on the quicker side.
A little taster of what Tony B and Gordo can expect if they pursue their Constitution-without-a-referendum plan:
The Sun leader today:
EU phoney Tony
TONY BLAIR wants Brussels to dump its disastrous plan for a written constitution.
Good idea, Tony. Nobody wants a federal superstate — which is what this grandiose scheme is all about.
But it seems the PM is not actually opposed to the treaty itself.
He just wants to sneak it in by instalments through the back door.
And avoid the referendum he promised the British people — knowing we would give it a resounding NO!
This is a warning shot across the bows. If they try to sneak in anything like the EU Constitution without a vote, they will be torn apart by the press. Either they will have to back down and agree to a vote (as before, ignominiously) or they will have to veto the Constitution, unless it is miracuously slimmed down to nothingness.
Tough call.
Gordo will lose the support of all Murdoch papers, esp the Sun, if he signs up to this, likewise the Mail and sister papers will savage him. Can he risk this with a knife-edge G/E ahead?
What happened to the freedom of Information for all except anything about Tory MPs bill this afternoon?
Your usual excellent summary , Sean , Portsmouth may just go LibDem from NOC only 1 gain is needed and they are making a big effort in 1 of the 2 Labour wards being defended and the Conservatives seem to be having some internal arguments between the Portsmouth North and South branches . Coventry may be a surprise Conservative loss as they have problems with 2 councillors having been deselected/resigned and standing next month . I am sure there will be 1 or 2 other surprises on the night .
Chronically Off Thread….
…but I just noticed how far the price of Nine de Sivola has contracted. It was 8/1 for tomorrow’s Scottish Grand National when I put it up. It is now best price 11/2, only with Paddy Power. If you are interested, take that price.
I hear that the horse is fit and well. I’ll be hearing more about tomorrow lunchtime and will try to report again before the off.
Re 25: -800+ Lab -100 Lib Dems +750 Cons
Who gets the other 150+ gains?
28 - it’s been talked out. Gone to the back of the queue so it’s effectively dead. But the government clearly likes the idea, so it wouldn’t surprise me if it appears in a piece of their legislation soon enough.
Thanks Eddie.
19 Benedict , the amount of time you are spending posting on here and your blog instead of canvassing/campaigning gave me the impression that you were the proverbial paper candidate LOL
Sean you missed Bury. M.B.C I’m shocked :0
26 That was my thinking, too, young Benny. I should think the CPS must pretty well know exactly what’s in it already. You could hardly blame them though if they thought about it a bit…and a bit more…and then some.
Sean, in January you were suggesting the LDs to win S Gloucs. Why have you suddenly changed your tune?
sorry should be
14 I wondered about this, Andrea. But some of the unopposed wins are in seats previously held by independents (and indeed other parties) - and of course it gives the Tories more resources for those wards where there is a contest. So it is a significant boost.
I’m not sure labour will lose oldham. There’s certainly some political tension in rochdale next door and I do think there will be damage done to the lab/tory coalition there but in Oldham cllrs seem to be fairly relaxed. The libdems did manage to get into power for 2 years not so long back in Oldham and failed to bed themselves in and they’ve been on the back foot since
Re 34, Mark, In the ward I am standing in we are out delivering them 3 to 1 at the moment.
What is more we are canvasing hard!
Re 36, Peter I do hope they give it some thought, we don’t want any cockups!
40 LibDems gained 2 seats from Labour last year and 1 from Conservatives , I would expect 2/3 more gains from Labour this year to make LibDems the largest party and the council NOC .
Good to see Nelson Mandela getting his second statue in London. I think there should, in fact, be statues of him in all cities and towns across the UK, and we should have a national Nelson Mandela Day, when people are forced to throw garlands in the air and weep with joy at the ending of Apartheid.
Then we must erect a five mile high Winnie Mandela fountain, in place of St Paul’s Cathedral, where blind and crippled black orphans can do ritual necklacings.
40 I thought the Lab Tory coalition had come to an end in Rochdale after a labour councillor had defected to the lib dems.
45. it has the libs control it now
I don’t know how long the CPS will take. Probably a while. In fact, the more I think of it it’s pretty unlikely any charges will be brought (if any) this side of the local elections, unless there’s been a clear plan of action already settled.
If charges are brought, the thing that’s going to be damaged the most is the Blair departure/succession. It could hang over the whole process and threaten to overshadow it and leave the whole Labour Party looking pretty grubby.
Poor Tony. You get the feeling that he’s not going to go “with the crowd wanting more” at all. Instead he’s going to look like a sleazy premier who clung on too long and sold Britain out to Europe as his final act.
Police hand honours file to CPS report BBC
re 48, Robin, *cough* so does my blog
48. Queen Victoria reported dead
50.
Damm when did that happen
Any chance of getting Westminster to change their mind? We need a Vaclav Havel Statue, not another Nelson MAndela.
There was another by election in Wales - Vale of Glamoran, Llantwit Major Other gain from Ind
“I see Mafeking has been relieved”.
Hancock’s Half Hour - magazine, dentist’s waiting room
51.
39.”I wondered about this, Andrea. But some of the unopposed wins are in seats previously held by independents ”
yes, I’m sure in some cases it’s in that way (for ex IIRC Labour has actually gained a couple of seats in Eastington because of Independents retirements and no-one else standing)
“of course it gives the Tories more resources for those wards where there is a contest. So it is a significant boost”
yes, I agree with this (even if it partly ties with the safety of those wards. If they were safe wards, they probably hadn’t an intense campaign even last time)
Is it mere coincidence that the file has gone to the CPS today, the same day that, we are told, 9th May has been settled as the departure announcement date? Has the latter followed on from the former?
Still, lots of leaks and speculation to look forward to over the next few weeks and months over the contents of the report, with a decision on charges (fingers crossed…) being made just as GB is setting in.
Was ‘94-’97 as enjoyable as this from the Labour side of the fence?!
44. Sean T - tut, tut, tut………
Surely you know that if the ‘left-wing political elite’ approve of the ends - then murder, terrorism, torture and genocide is ok (think Soviet Union, South Africa, Ulster ..etc,etc).
BB
57 - “settling” that should be
re 57, now Bob, you are just being cruel
52 Surely it impinges Havel’s human rights if they don’t put up one to him too? And what about our human rights? Shouldn’t we all have statues?
Leicester has had a Nelson Mandela Park for some years.
Re 61, Peter, have you seen my photo’s?
Just between the Prison and the Rugby ground!
‘We need a Vaclav Havel Statue, not another Nelson MAndela.’
No chance. He opposed communism.
50 & 54 and I hear it’s not looking too good for General Custer either…. we await more news eagerly.
should have checked further up the thread…
64. Then up past the rugby ground to Filbert Street.
63 Shhh..Benedict. Not on the site please!
62. Harlow has a Nelson Mandela Avenue. I never knew he used to live in Harlow. Perhaps he moved to Soweto for a quiet life.
Hardly at the political cutting edge, but C have every chance of gaining Elmbridge from NOC.
Certainly should strengthen minority control and take it overall in 2008.
29 seats would give effective control with Mayor’s casting vote.
I would say C certain to gain 2 from Residents but may lose 1.
C could easily gain up to 5 seats overall but 3 more realistic.
The more important election in Surrey is the possible challenge to Nick Skellett as County leader, within the ruling C group.
Now with cross party support - the LD victor of the recent Claygate by-election on Elmbridge has publicly called for Roy Taylor to make a bid.
67…And adjacent to the University?
32 It’s not actually back of the queue as I understand it. In theory it is up first for debate next Friday, unless another bill comes out of committee in the meantime. But David Maclean may pull it, given that all he will be letting himself in for is more of the same from Baker, Hughes and co.
If you are tired of Mandela Park, you are tired of life.
Re 68, Peter,
69. Thinking back to my student days, this plethora of Mandela dedications is quite ironic. The ridiculous trot councils and student unions who proposed these namings did so in the belief that Mandela was a far left revolutionary who sooner or later was going to do Mugabe-style things to the evil white South Africans. As it happens, he turned out to be something very different - how disappointed his erstwhile fans must be.
Jack Straw for Chancellor is strenghening a lot on Betfair. Has something leaked out, or is it because of strong endorsements (e.g. on ‘This Week’, etc.)?
I’ve been very surprised at the number of wards in Canterbury where Labour are either not fielding a candidate or only fielding one in a multi-member ward, where in the past they have contested the ward. If this is similar in other areas of the south east, then we may well see the Lib Dems taking some Tory seats that had not previously been target wards. If Lib Dems can get Labour voters to vote for them we could see some surprises.
I now think that we could see Lib Dem gains (and holds) that we didn’t expect before.
70 - Nick Skellett has been re-elected as Surrey Tory Leader
75 et al…
I wonder why people find the plethora of marks of respect of mandela so odd. After all, I’ve never heard complaints about the statues of Lincoln in parliament square and manchester and edinburgh, the Kennedy memorials in Runnymede and marylebone road. I except the Roosevelt statues dotted around the place as he was, after all, a wartime ally.
can’t think what the difference is personally.
70/78. Thanks for this confirmation. It is quite typical of the local rag to run a story and then provide no follow up on the outcome.
I think you are well set to gain Hersham North and Ambleside.
I would throw in Weybridge North as your surprise gain as the area super-gentrifies - if such a thing is possible.
That would make 29 as I assume Molesey East is lost back to RA and Walton North is too close to call.
77. Perhaps the thought of running into ColinW on the campaign trail put possible Labour candidates off.
79 - I suspect the problem is less with Nelson Mandela himself and more with the sorts of people who name things after him.
80 - Actually, the vote was at 2.00pm this afternoon.
You’ll not be surprised that I’m spending all my time in Hersham North and the signs are encouraging….but there’s no complacency.
Hello there!
You asked to be sent a notifcation when something new was posted on
sjhoward.co.uk, and I’m happy to tell you that something called ‘Cash
for
Honours file handed over’ has just been published.
A basic text version of ‘Cash for Honours file handed over’ is included
at the
bottom of this email, but to view any associated video, audio, or
images you’ll
need to visit
http://sjhoward.co.uk/archive/2007/04/20/cash-for-honours-file-handed-over.
‘ello, ‘ello ‘ello
76 Will L
Yes, I noticed that. It’s a fairly recent move too, though it’s not the most liquid of markets so may not amount to a lot of betting. No, I know of no reason for it but am pleased to see it.
What I did notice is that for months the main bookmakers have had the price of Straw and Darling nailed to the floor. There’s been a huge discrepancy with the Betfair price. It suggests to me that they believe it’s a two-horse race. Personally I’d have thought Timms had a decent chance, but the money says otherwise.
67 fr - Filbert Street has been bulldozed - Leicester City moved to the Walkers Stadium AKA the Crisp Bowl . But Leicester City are likely to go down to division 1 (division 3 in old money) then go bust and leave the league all together.
Ah, the wonders of capitalism.
83.
Are you at liberty to divulge the margin of victory or unanimity?
A previous challenge was reported here as being close.
Apathy reigns in much of Walton and all incumbents will probably benefit, including your new recruit.
Apart from Molesey E, I’m assuming no change on other side of the Borough where RAs are much more dug in.
84 Hello Herbert! You have been absent so long I was beginning to worry about you.
Have you and your friend at the Foreign and Commonwealth Office anything new to report on the attempts to persuade Mr Miliband to stand against Our Gord? I checked out the Sunday Papers a couple of weeks back, as you suggested, but could find very little on it. Perhaps this weekend?
Cash for Honours, you say? It must be at least six months since it was first suggested here that the PM was about to be led away in handcuffs. Still, better late than never. (He has been arrested, hasn’t he?)
Have a good weekend. And let us know if you find anything interesting in the papers…You know …Miliband… ‘persuaded’ …that kind of thing.
I have invested a bit on Douglas Alexander for chancellor - a mate of Gordon Brown but relatively low profile.
I think a new face at No 11 would help Gordon appear fresh. No doubt if my theory is right, I will have picked the wrong outsider as per usual.
89 - Whilst I agree with the sentiment, Gordo is so paranoid about his Scottishness (hence all the ‘Britishness’ etc stuff) that he would never have someone who represents a Scottish constituency at 11. Think again… (Prawn Dimarolo…
)
89 Well if you have, Icarus, that will be two of us.
Any feedback on the cricket world cup?
90 Nah. Friend of Share Clort.
92 So that’s where Herbert has been!
88 - “Hello Herbert! You have been absent so long I was beginning to worry about you.”
Oh no, he hasn’t.
By the way, haven’t I seen someone link to the sjhoward website before?
Check out the merchandising link on his site, I’m astonished that he only sells merchandise with just a one name logo though. Missing out on marketing opportunities there I feel.
87 - Oops, I’ve been moderated :(. Anyway, upshot is I’d rather not on this public forum.
Yes, I too don’t yet sense much excitement, but then I didn’t last year either, and look what happened.
81 - Cantware, I think that you will find ColinW is a Liberal Democrat.
88. Ptp and others. I have been “persuaded” that Miliband will not run. Certainly very unlikely now given his repeated denials, barring bus accidents involving GB etc. So I have jettisoned my position on The Miliband today and bailed back into Brown.
Still have a Green Book but now make a very nice profit if Brown wins as opposed to a BIG profit if I’d stuck with The Miliband. If the Miliband drifts out to 20/1+ I will probably back him again just in case.
So I am no longer the voice in the wilderness for The Miliband.
96. Quite understand - the local rag will catch up next week.
I suspect some of the few Ambleside voters may vote for more candidates than they are entitled, out of confusion.
We had both the leaflets co-delivered by postman or private contractor.
O/T Techi tips needed:
I recently bought a Blackberry phone and although I can read the main article of pb.com it’s not letting me read the comments or sumbit a comment. Is this normal for Blackberry phones? I was under the impression that some bloggers can even post articles off their Blackberry phones. It’s a Blackberry Pearl and Orange network.
The main article is the best bit.
99 - Can I ask what leaflets these are? From the candidates or polling cards from the Council? If the former, surely they would have been hand delivered by the poor bloody infantry
98 Perversely, StJohn, I would say it’s not necessarily the end of the road for the Milibandwagon. Have a look at the mini-thread on Henry G’s blog.
re 9. I suppose it’s not inconceivable that the BNP could win in Birmingham Kinsgtanding as well.
I am afraid we will certainly lose Medway, Sean
Another byelection result from yesterday Vale Of Glamorgan Penarth Plymouth Con hold Con 724 LibDem 290 Lab 207 Plaid 89 - 2004 result 2 seats Con 1171/1064 Lab 570/521 LibDem 290 . This ward is in Cardiff S and Penarth
Sean re English Locals.
Vote share notional vote share as announced by BBC is based on a sample of 3 party contests. I agree with your figures broadly but think Tory share will be nearer 42% Lib dems 26% and Labour 23%.
Actual vote shares which is influenced by the large number of non mainstream cadidates will show lower shares for the main parties - my guess would be Tory 40,lab 20 and LibDem 24.
In terms of seats the main difference with sean is that I believe the lib dem will go backwards with losses in the South more than offsetting gains in the north.
Overall I give Libs 180 losses,Labour 790 lossses,Conservative 900 gains and other parties, 70 gains.
To your list of conservative gains I would add Brighton, East Riding,North Somerset,Maidenhead Bury, N Tyneside from The Unitary and metroplitan councils.In the districts additional to your list Colchester,Epping,Harborough,Harrogate,Ipswich,Newark,N kesteven,N warwicks,Northwqwilts, Nortmanpton,Scarborouugh,Sribble,Vale Of White Horse and Warwick.
On Lib dem gains I,m not convinced about Woking or Harborough.
I would add to losses to NOC in Malvern Hills,Oadby,Restormel,and S Norfolk.
On Labour losses I would add Nottingham and Wear valley but see Labour hoding on In Middlesborough.Labour wpould be left with Control of only 25 councils outside London
Overall a triumph for Mr C!
Roger H
105 Kent Tory
“we will certainly lose Medway”
Isn’t that what Bob Marshall-Andrews thought election night ?
106. Mark, LD were at 531 in 2004 (in between the 2 Lab candidates)
106. I imagine Hull and Bristol are particularly important for Hull East and Bristol West and Bristol East. But how are you doing in Newcastle. Theoretically all the City seats should be on your a radar but I think you’ll really need a crushing victory this year.
re 76. He’s not as tight as he was because I notice that having backed him at 4. I laid him at 2.84 a while ago. I’m currently all green on the chancellor market
107 - I would dance in the streets if that were a reality! Sadly I am thinking that Labour will not do nearly as badly as people are predicting. I would personally be happy with 500 Tory gains…
… as long as 2 or 3 of them came from Wakefield!
106. As I suspected the Tory vote is holding firm in CS&P. The Lib Dems were probably going to have to break Tory support to take it this time. I suspect you will come close thanks to a Labour collapse but not close enough. But I do think it was odd that you chose a Student. The Tories by contrast chose a very strong candidate, former Welsh Woman of the year 2005 no less.
109 Yes Andrea put in yesterday’s figure twice .
100. Henry G. I have a blackberry. I’m not very clued up with it but by clicking on B for bottom of page and then HTML it allows access to PBC and the comments pretty much as via normal internet access. Don’t know if that helps.
See 98 above. I have jettisoned Miliband. Have you revised your assessment of the situation following your thoughts last week?
110 Newcastle North wards were a crushing victory last year , Newcastle Central the most marginal of the 3 .
107 As I have said before there is no chance of overall Conservative control in Brighton , the Greens will scupper that but they will be largest party .
116. I know but Labour still looked pretty in 2005. I’m saying you need to crush again this year, and build a massive lead over Labour to shaken their hold on Newc Seats.
116. Newcastle Central (on new boundaries) should be pretty safish for Labout at next GE even if they’ll do bad overall.
118. I think he was talking about 2006 locals with LDs leading in Newcastle North and East wards (in North doing better than 2004, whilst in East having a smaller lead compared to 2004) with Central wards having Labour just ahead (by a small margin) even in 2006 locals
Won’t a large number of “Conservative unopposed” potentially reduce their “percentage share” of the vote because they won’t be used as atypical seats. Or have i misunderstood how the %share is calculated?
120. correction, LDs just head in Central wards, not Lab (less than 100 votes). I went by memory. It was practically almost a tie anyway.
120. You’re right, but the Labour culture is so entrenched that I think they have to hammer Labour every year until the election to bring any of the seats up. BTW How does Bristol East look. Can theselocals help them.
This Plaid result looks very strong. Could 1999 hapen again
Mr Senior how do you do candidate selection. I’m still puzzled by some your choices in Wales.
No one has mentioned West Devon - certainty to go to Tories from NOC.
123.”This Plaid result looks very strong. Could 1999 hapen again”
If you’re referring to the Rhondda BC one, it’s an 8.1% swing and the ward is in Cynon Valley constituency
103. Yikes Ptp! It’s never over ’til its over.
To clarify my comments above, when I say I have jettisoned my position on the Miliband that isn’t strictly true. He still wins me a sizeable sum and more than Brown but much less than this morning. However I was facing a very modest profit on Brown this morning and now the book is much more balanced with a good profit available in the event of the most likely outcome. I no longer have all my eggs(profit) in one basket.
I still feel that Miliband can win if he finds his backbone but reports in the press that he has told Blair’s camp that he isn’t standing don’t suggest its likely to me. As I’ve said before in my view the gigger hurdle of the two is whether he stands because he will only stand if he has a big chance of success. Despite Henry G’s thoughts I think his odds of success are now at least 12/1.
125. If you know the Cynon Vallet it is the epitome of the safe Labour seat held even in 199 quite comfortably. That means reasonable to assume they are in bigger trouble in other Valleys seats. 8.1% is a good swin for that Seat.
123 All the Bristol East wards have elections this year so that should give us a good idea ( not all wards are contested every year ) . Sorry not privy as to how WA candidate selection was done .
127. “held even in 199 quite comfortably”
It wasn’t a comfortable hold in 1999: they just held it by 3.2%
“That means reasonable to assume they are in bigger trouble in other Valleys seats”
You said they were in troubles even when they did well in the Rhondd and Caerphilly.
The Rhondda AM sounds quite confident about his chances on his blog anyway. Then take it how you prefer it!
56 Second point is more significant than the first I think.
121 I think the calculation is based on a sample of wards contested by all three main parties. So probably not. Obviously it will affect aggregate votes, but these tend to be smaller wards.
107 Malvern Hills is NOC already .
Great result for our team in Cynon valley we will probably be up in RCT but we woke Labour up in 99 and they are better organised these days. Our surprise results this time will be in North Wales combined with a very strong performance in the Mid and west region.
Am hearing good reports from Neath but not hearing much else from the South.
89, 90 - Douglas Alexander or Dawn Primarolo for Chancellor.
Not a chance of a chance. He’s too young and Scottish, she’s too nothing at all. Ken Clarke and Brown (along with Callaghan and Healey) have shown that broad policy strokes combined with bluster are all that’s required to be Chancellor. No expertise required. Yet it is a great office of state so you don’t give away to any Douglas or Dawn. The next Chancellor will either be a trusted Brownian (Darling/Balls) or a Labour oldtimer who’s owed (Straw/Hain).
133. Maybe he meant Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster for Dawn!
133, 134 -
Sorry - I wasn’t being serious about Dim Dawn - thought it was such an obvious non-starter nobody would get confused…
Realistically, It’s Jack Straw’s if he wants it (but I suspect that he doesn’t and wants Foreign Sec when it’s a proper job rather than a gopher under Blair). It might be Miliband’s in exchange for not running (a geeky persona wouldn’t be so bad as Chancellor, and Ed Balls would be doing all the hard work behind the scenes anyway)
135 - I get the impression that Miliband is a bit too honest, or at least tries too hard to affect honesty, to be Chancellor.
Too young? He’s only 2 years younger than Miliband.
We will see.
Re: Orginal Article
Of the councils you have listed I believe that:
Plymouth: Lab loss to NOC
Shepway: Lib Dem loss to NOC
South Gloucestershire: NOC
Suffolk Mid: NOC
Hyndburn: Con loss to NOC
Oldham: Lib Dem gain from Lab
I would also point out that you seemed to have missed North Warwickshire off your list of Con gains.
Wondering if anyone saw McCain’s embarrassing, stumbling performance on Sky, singing Bomb Iran to the Beach Boys ‘Barbara Ann’?
Is there a credible challenger to Giuliani? Nobody so far has come close - McCain (see above), Romney (not liked), Gingrich (too divisive) Thompson (too diffident). All the social conservatives must realise that time is running out, anyone that they are likely to try and draft in at this stage? Any value anywhere in the betting?
138 Shepway is NOC now with Con as largest party not LibDem controlled . I think they will be 1 seat short of overall control in Oldham
I need a recap of Scotland count.
Are the machines ok now? (IIRC in Lothian there were too many lists and the machines weren’t able to count all of them. Has the problem been resolved or will they count by hand?)
Are the Scot local elections counted over-night or on Friday?
115. Thanks Stjohn. Working now.
134 - apocryphally (though it’s not very likely) when Churchill became Chancellor of the Exchequer in 1924, he came out of No 10 thinking that Baldwin had offered him the Chancellorship of the Duchy of Lancaster.
141 - So far as I know they are working OK. Despite the new technology it means that the first declaration will likely be later than usual and is likely to be Glasgow Kelvin rather than Hamilton South (which is usually the first Scottish seat to declare).
Not 100% sure about the council election but IIRC they are going to be counted over-night.
144. Thanks Max. Kelvin can be an interesting seat, so it’s not like having Sunderland South as first declaration.
107 - not a chance in North Tyneside I’m afraid. We will likely gain one seat from Labour but no other seat is remotely in reach. There are at least a couple of Conservative held seats which are actually very vulnerable and it’s not impossible that we could go backwards.
In any event, North Tyneside has a Labour elected Mayor and so even if the Conservatives gain a majority of the seats, it’ll still be a Labour-controlled council.
This looks like another attempted bribe: and if it is such a brilliant idea why only in Wales. Indeed, why do these goodies not come the way of English voters? Taken for granted for too long?
http://icwales.icnetwork.co.uk/0100news/0200wales/tm_headline=brown-pledges-to-extend-child-trust-funds%26method=full%26objectid=18936527%26siteid=50082-name_page.html
126 OK, St John. Got it.
Not in the mainstream but Topry splits and Lib Dem by election gains could see the Consevtaives going back In Twekesbury and the Lib Dems being at least the larges party
Do you think Brown realises that people outside Wales might hear what he says? Apparently the asymmetrical devolution is a good thing as it represents a “healthy diversity”.
About the the loss of pensions by workers whose employers went out of business, he said every one of the 125,000 people affected would receive help from an £8bn fund. So they get better treatment in Wales? Must do as in England large numbers of these people seem ineligible for aid, aren’t they?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/wales/6575279.stm
144 isn’t it brilliant the way automation of a process seems to slow it down? I helped design and build the first web application system for the passport office - farcical, you fill out an online form which somebody then prints off and puts in the post to you.
If the tories gain over 500 seats I’ll be very happy. I think Vale of the White Horse is going to go blue.
Miscellaneous catching-up after 5 hours on doorsteps and a lot of media stuff on Boots today.
- May 9: yes, my post on this wasn’t a coincidence. In general I know what I’m talking about on PLP-related issues, but I’d heard it at one remove and thought it wasn’t up to me to do more than use it as an example.
- Betfair: can’t be bothered to scan all the different replies they’ve given people! I don’t think they have a financial interest, it’s just that the subject is of marginal interest to them so they’ve not given all staff a definitive ruling. It’s an annoying human trait that people who don’t know something (’where is the fish department?’) confidently give you any old answer anyway.
- Canvass returns generally not much change from 2003 as usual, except for one horrid pocket on a street that we discovered nobody had had a Labour leaflet for years - unsurprisingly, half of them had switched to the LDs. Urgh - wait till I find out who was supposed to be delivering there… Around 1 in 3 LibDems and a scattering of Tories said they’d vote for me at the GE, though that’s obviously prone to ‘be nice to the chap on your doorstep’ syndrome. FWIW, the background was usually de-ideologisation - ‘you’re all much the same so I’ll vote for you as you do the job OK’.
144- It depends on each authority! My Council, South Lanarkshire are counting both through the night- Returning Officer advised yesterday that Hamilton South Parliamentary seat will be expected to declare at 1AM (Probably the first seat of the night to announce- has been historically under manual counts) East Kilbride at 2AM; Glasgow Rutherglen at 3AM, Clydesdale 5AM, Council count will start circa 5AM, should all be over by 7AM- a long long night-my ward is the 17th out of 20 set to be declared so I wont have a result ’till nearer 7AM I guess!!
153.
I think we will all have to bring some coffee perhaps somethings stronger. Or just catch the early bus!
153 & 154 - Do either of you know if recounts are going to be allowed or is the new system considered infallible.
re 153. Why? Is it really in the interests of having an accurate count using a new method with the tellers half asleep.
153. Thanks.
I guess that I will spend that Friday in bed
The system itself is not being used to it’s full extent, or so we are told. Great trust is placed in the system and it was made clear that the possibility of a recount was pretty much slim to none. Humans can make an 100 vote error, but a margin of 100 votes this time round at Holyrood would probably not result in a recount.
Don’t look at this pic if you don’t want to risk nightmares tonight, but it’s apparently Mandelson dancing at the Indian Party during the Annual Meeting of the World Economic Forum this January:
http://cache.gettyimages.com/xc/73600763.jpg?v=1&c=NewsMaker&k=2&d=17A4AD9FDB9CF1935B3684F2B7A07BEB791595C3C0C74427
Interesting Guardian piece. Brown has 217 MPs ready to nominate him. 95 are undecided and 35 have refused to nominate him.
Brown’s supporters think Meacher’s bid in dead in the water with McDonnell doing better but being short of 44 signatures (apparently he can be in 30’s). Brown’s camp is trying to convince MPs not to nominate McD (why? I had thought Brown has nothing to fear from a McD’s bid).
MPs who are thought not to be willing to nominate Brown are:
John Hutton, Stephen Byers, Alan Milburn, Adam Ingram, Joan Ryan, Pat McFadden, Claire Ward, Jim Murphy, and Janet Anderson.
(Not particularly surprising names)
ops, I forgot the link
http://politics.guardian.co.uk/labourleadership/story/0,,2062309,00.html
To show your support for Alan Johnson please add the following banner to your blog.
160. ops, 93 undecided, not 95.
Meacher is thought to have just 3 supporters.
And Hilary Armstrong is also among the ones not nominating Gordon.
Now being my 4th comment in a row, I retire in my dark room until someone else posts
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/theeditors/2007/04/how_you_can_help.html
163. “Meacher is thought to have just 3 supporters.”
Including himself, I assume?
165. Steven, probably just himself, Simpson and Hopkins…
I’m suprised at the figure for McDonnell. I am torn between wanting him to get on the ballot paper through sheer bloody-mindedness. On the other hand I’d have thought he has chance he has nil chance of getting close to Brown and the venture is entirely pointless.
160 - Is Adam Ingram a noted Blairite? And/Or is there a connection with his role as Armed Forces Minister?
167. Henry. The piece says “most optimistic suggestion”, so he can have less.