Price update 1730 BST: The money goes on Royal
April 22nd, 2007The chart shows the price movements on the Betfair market over the past six hours. Royal, who was at 3/1 this morning, is now at 1.95.1.
Mike Smithson
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(from previous thread) 87% turnout is remarkable, if it’s anywhere near true. Just goes to show that politics ain’t dead, and people will vote if there is a clear decision to be made, and serious differences twixt the parties. Roll on something similar here, it would be good for all of us. A nice EU referendum would do it, but of course we won’t be allowed that…
*sigh*
Anyone have any basis for thinking this turnout favours Royal? Or is that just presumption?
Please note Traffic is absolutely massive at the moment and shorter threads reduce the demand on the server. I have also reduced the number of posts showing on the main page.
Yeah basically people wanting to stop Le Pen voted for Royal, mostly Bayrou supporters, also you have the exit polls showing her and Sarko on 26%. Personally I think she’ll get the most votes in this round
1. SeanT, I said earlier on that I thought high turnout may favour Royal, as I think more casual voters would like her than Sarkozy if forced to make a decision.
However, this afternoon I’m now thinking the high turnout may favor Sarkozy - maybe the electorate are turning out in an attempt to secure his promises of reforms instead of “the same old”? But part of me cannot see the French voting like this so easily.
One thing I’m sure about is that the turnout doesn’t favour Bayrou.
According to Belgian radio Rtbf it’s Sarko and Sego at the second round with Sarko having a small lead over Sego in first round
86,5% of participation, according to TNS Sofres
The rate of participation in the first turn of the presidential election Sunday in France was 86,5%, according to an estimate TNS Sofres/Unilog for TF1 and RTL.
For Ipsos-Dell, for France 2, Europe 1, 20 Minutes and the Point, the participation was 84,2%.
In the first case, the figure would beat the record of participation in the first turn of a presidential election, established at the time of the first poll of this type, in 1965, with 84,8%.
In 2002, the participation in the first turn had been 73%.
mf/agences
Accrording to Dutch Radio, the Swiss media reports that exits polls show Sarko ahead with Sego and Bayrou close.
Swiss newspaper reporting first exit poll results
http://www.letemps.ch/
Sarko c.27%, Royal c. 26%
4. Maybe it doesn’t favour anyone! Maybe it’s just that people have been energised into voting by a polarised, important and intriguing campaign - so they are voting as they would have done, but in greater numbers.
8. Incroyable!
Er, is anyone able to answer my previous question… do we trust French exit polls? Or do they also suffer from shy Le Penists? Or what?
I’m trying to Google an answer but the brainiacs on here will surely know.
I think some who said they voted Sarko may have gone for Le Pen
Its not so much who it favours as who it doesn’t…if that makes sense. A huge turnout would suggest that most candidates got a decent vote out but…some candidates vote probably has a lower top end compared to others.
Re 8
And to make it even more incroyable it is being referenced by lemonde.fr so not exactly a secret in France
7 “Sego and Bayrou close”
Anyone who believes that can currently back Bayrou on Betfair to win the second round at 50-1
I don’t think so somehow.
It just goes to show, never trust the Swiss
Am I right in thinking that the Swiss exit poll implies a possible Sego win in the 2nd round? She’ll have the big Mo, now, having done better than expected. And with more Bayrou votes than Le Pen votes she has more gravy to mop up…
Or am I talking les testicules?
Either way its win/win for me. Sarko wins and the British left has conniptions, which is always good, or Sego wins and she totally screws the French economy, which is equally agreeable, from a traditional British point of view.
15. I don’t know they have their own version of the Echelon communications spying system you know….
15. or maybe it’s never trust Dutch Radio reporting Swiss polls about France.
FWIW Italian media reported that Swiss media showed Sarko and Sego at the second round with Le Pen and Bayrou close for third place
Well, my debut day of playing the Betfair game has gone well. I am all green providing the next president is Sarko, Sego or Bayrou.
Royal’s odds slipping from 1.9/1 to 2.25/1 over the past 30 minutes.
20. Profit taking at all?
I have a network of extremely reliable informants in France who are telling me with ultra-extreme confidence that the top two will be Laguiller and Besancenot.
Princes often used ‘royal seals’ and sometimes were ‘independent’ with their own sovereignty: examples are Monaco and luxembourg today.
But before 1500 the laws of feudal fealty were the main guide and thinking about allegiances in modern national terms is misleading. If I recall correctly, the King of Scotland, for example, even in Tudor times, could be argues to be bound by fealty to the King of England.
Royal now at 2.5/1 - the market thinks Sarko is a shoe-in.
16- seanT-I am keeping all my cash on Sego for the minute- although tempting to cash in for a nice windfall now- I think you might be right and the big mo may come sego’s way this week.
Sky News saying Le Pen deffo fourth. And Sarko doing a bit better than the Swiss say - poss 29%.
So not that incroyable. Actually v close to the polls on the final days. Sarko to win.
Turnout favours Royal as the less controvertial candidate who is actually more conservative, I suspect. We’ll soon know
8 - it now says different
25. Hey, welcome back dude.
I’ve changed my mind though (already!) - see 26. Sarko will win from here, methinks - he’s well ahead in the new exit polls. Best cash in yr Sego chips now.
23 Yes indeed the Kings of Scotland were said to owe fealty to the Kings Of England but that was extracted when David II was captured and held captive by 13 years by Edward III . It did not stop pretty constant outbreaks of warfare between the 2 countries over the next 200 years or so .
Come on Sarko!
25 Tyson - If you believe that, then take the 2.5/1 now available!
22. “Parieurs, parieuses!!! On a gagné!!”
Isn’t the high turnout simply a reflection of fears of a repeat of the last election where LePen got to the second round. A lot of voters in both camps will want to ensure there is no repeat, socialists to ensure their candidate gets through to the second round, and the right wingers to ensure that socialist determination does not knock their man out of the race.
Indeed - letemps.ch now saying Sarko on 30 and Royal on 25,5
tsr says:
18h59, of Paris. First estimates, according to information of the TSR.
NR. Sarkozy: 29,15%
S. Royal: 26,2
F. Bayrou: 18,6
J. - M. the PEN: 10,8
O. Besancenot: 4,7%
35. If these figures are correct, Le Pen is very low.
I think its important to be very careful in taking the outcomes of the 1st stage as offering a definitive prediction for the 2nd.
So we’re sure of a Sarko-Sago second round, right?
Does the “I won’t admit I vote for Le Pen” characteristic extend to exit polls. 11% seems low. Maybe all the scores in the opinion polls were weighted for secret le pen voters that don’t exist.
seanT and peter from putney- thanks for the advice- sako is the man to beat, yet there may be still some more tightening around sego once getting into the second round.
Don’t you all just love election nights though- betting on them just makes them even more fun.
38 Absolutely certain!
37 Yes. Especially if the front two have finished within a few percentage points of each other.
Still, I think you are OK to go confess to Mrs Yokel now.
I think everyone today who hasn’t backed Bayrou must have done well
29 see 241 previous thread.
40 Sure thing, Tyson. And don’t you notice how few Creatures, Astroturfers and Tarquins drop in when there some real action!
If le pen’s votes comes a low as 11% sego will be pleased- less votes to splinter sako’s way 2nd round
My guess is that Le Pen is doing better than the exit polls are predicting and that Sarky is doing worse. Exactly the same factors that apply to ordinary polling apply here and many of those who support the FN leader remain reluctant to admit it even aftetr they have left the polling booth.
43 Poor old Jack W. I can just visualise him now, reaching out to switch off his own life-support machine.
47 - I entirely agree, surely to a larger extent if anything (you might admit over the telephone, but not to a person in the street)
That should of course be a
and not a 
. I feel desperately sorry for the old Jacobite. Honest. 
42. Oh god shes no Mrs yet….whilst she has no understanding of this betting business she does appreciate proper champers as opposed to some fizzy wine.
It’s all looking rosy here. I’m just relieved that I didn’t go into Bayrou at all.
What time do the polls close?
52. Between 6pm and 8pm Paris time.
47 - my thought too. On the current info, it looks like sarko by a whisker in R1, making the second round quite exciting
Mike - Thanks for spotting the value in Royal at over 3/1 yesterday - it was possible for a while to exit below 2’s.
If there’s only 2%-3%, between Sarko and Royal - how do you now rate Royal’s value at 2.5/1 please?
47. Interesting. Personally I’d be ashamed to admit support for Segolene’s ludicrous economic policy.
Can we have some predictions for the next round on the basis of this one? I know I’m being impetuous, demanding and immature, but plus ca change.
54 I think that’s probably right, John, and if I were really, really greedy, I think I would start buying up the 3.5 on offer for Mme Royal right now.
54. If you are right, the market is wrong. With Sarkozy at 2/5 and Royal approaching 11/4, the market seems to be pointing to a final ballot of around 53 to 47. Having said that the market’s been wrong before, and it will be wrong again.
56 You are also encroaching, Sean T. Stick to the invective and personal abuse. Leave the betting to others.
I think most Bayrou voters will go to Sego, I think she’s value at the minute
According to BBC report from Paris Bayrou hasn’t made it to the second round.
re 55. PtP. Assuming my reading of the Le Pen exit poll understatement proves correct I now rate Sego’s chances of winning on May 6th at about 50%.
Extension past 8pm due to turnout.
More exit polls:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2007/04/22/wfra322.xml
The aggregate Le Pen/Sarky figure in the exit polls is 2-3% LESS than almost all the polls of the past month. So the right is doing worse tnan expected.
In that case Mike, I hope you are lumping on at 2.55/1
I don’t think it is anywhere near 50% but she should tighten a bit
Chirac picks up all the candidate slips so who did he choose behind the curtain eh??!!
From the Swiss TSR website:
18h59, de Paris. Premières estimations, selon les informations de la TSR.
N. Sarkozy: 29,4%
S. Royal: 26,2%
F. Bayrou: 18,6%
J.-M. Le Pen: 10,8%
O. Besancenot: 4,7%
Ph. de Villiers: 2,5%
M-G Buffet: 2,1%
D. Voynet: 1,6%
F. Nihous: 1,2%
J.Bové: 1%
G. Schivardi: 0,4%
(but Laguiller seems to be missing)
62 Think you might be right, Mike. There’s certainly a big margin for error there - or Value, as us betting buffs like to call it.
56 The market thinks Sarko is a certainty at 0.4/1, but if there is only 2or 3 percentage points between them in the first round, I’m not so sure - hence my Q to Mike above.
Very impressed with your lively participation in the French Presidential betting market Sean, I can never previously recall you mentioning any interest whatsoever in betting.
65. Are you including all the tiny candidates in this? And, how do you divide the Bayrou vote? Is he centre-right, centre-left, centre-spot, what?
The Sky guy just said he thought most Bayrou voters will tack to Sarko.
65. Mike, a couple of per cent is surely just statistical noise. Arent exit polls more susceptible to self selectin bias?
57. Thats good odds. The best I ever got was around 4.5-4.9 during her dark dark days so at 35 after a bit of a come back and, so it appears, a berth in round 2 is pretty useful.
I do not believe that Sarkozy will run away with Round 2, in fact I’m guessing that a decent perfomance my Royal in Round 1 will actually see some in the media suggest she’s in with a great chance even though I expect Sarkozy to come home. As a result I would expect Royal’s odds to contract soundly below 2.5, if she gets through.
Thats 3.5…
63 - Matthew - do you have any more info or a source for this? Cheers.
The France24 coverage is surreal - the presenters and guests clearly know the exit polls, but aren’t allowed to say anything. Having live coverage starting well before exit polls are released is bizarre.
71. Am not betting! Don’t have the time to understand how it works. Just anorakky interest in politics.
The market is right. Sarko will win from here, barring some weirdness. At least half of Bayrou’s votes, all of le Pen’s and all of de Villiers will go to him, which nudges him past 50%, I think, without any further assistance.
Watching TV5 and the interior ministry has released a statement.
I think that most of Bayrous support is basically like his political party which is centre right so Im guessing that at least 50% of Bayrou support goes to Sarkozy.
Lets remember the debates. I believe that Sarkozy will destroy Royal who isn’t the best communicators.
76. Reported by BBC News24 earlier today that some polling stations in Marseille where vandalised overnight, had to open late, and one close late as a result.
Assuming these numbers are correct, Royal’s score is the best by a PS candidate in the first round since Mitterrand’s 34% in 1988.
Right I will be off to deliver leaflets but it does look like a sarko sego final.
50 peter the punter- really am sorry to hear that Jackw has taken a turn for the worse again- I didn’t know.
Anyway- have to go- but will turn on next week.
71 He’s hopeless, PfP. A few weeks back I sent him off to Willam Hills to back the SNP at 6/5. He came back with a tin of dulux.
83. Delivering leaflets? Bloody hell that guy is really going all out to promote his blog…..
80. Yup, agreed. Sego is just insubstantial - a big girlie - and the intense scrutiny of mano a mano will do for her.
OT, while we’ve all been wonking away a la Francaise, the attorney general has said, on Sky, that he will still have the final say on Cash for Honousr prosecutions. However, we can all rest easy, he says, because he reassures us that he will be “properly impartial”.
Unbelievable. Can you imagine the howls of outrage from the left if the position were reversed, and a rightwing legal crony of Thatcher or Major was gonna decide the Tory’s PM’s judicial fate?
And Labour wonder why they are increasingly despised.
Advice to Attorney General: change your mind.
Assuming these numbers are correct, Royal’s score is the best by a PS candidate in the first round since Mitterrand’s 34% in 1988.
by Double Carpet April 22nd, 2007 at 6:42 pm
Not surprising considering what happen to the Socialist in 2002.
85 And a replacement saucepan wasn’t it?
87 - I don’t think there’s any suggestion that the PM faces “a judicial fate”.
85 - but was it tartan paint?
87. If the investigation stops at his decision surely there would be a massive popular turn away from Labour?
88. And that we have fewer candidates this time.
We must remember that by the time the Attorney General decides, it may well be Brown’s AG, not Lord Goldsmith. For a Brown appointee to block prosecution would look even worse.
What was the ‘gap’ between Le Pen and Jospin in 2002? I can’t remenber,thx.
89 & 91
:-)
95. Under 200k
Official exit poll coming up….
90. Indeed, but I was trying to keep my post pithy and concise. Natch.
I really don’t think the AG has realised how this looks. How awful and rotten and decomposed and corrupt. Is it really worth the anger and hatred his position will engender, just to preserve some constitutional nicety? Or is he actually trying to save his master’s hide? What’s the point? If he blocks prosecution it will just cause a huge scandal, even if he genuinely feels it is the right thing to do. Far better to tactfully withdraw now, unless he is indeed corrupt.
Labour increasingly remind me of Major’s Tories. Just lacking in basic political common sense, and making continual errors of judgement.
SBS - we canvassed your road today and got some excellent results. The best was a man in Onslow Gardens who said he had voted Labour for 35 years but was now going to vote Conservative because Blair had screwed up and the Lib Dems were a waste of time!
Thought I should share that! hehe
98 - Hurry, I’m still holding my breath!
As expected, surprised at Le Pen’s low numbers.
Not bad at all for Sarkozy, still holding my negative position on Royal.
Sarkozy 30%
Royal 25%
Bayrou 18%
Le Pen 11%
what is the exit poll?
I doubt Le Pen is that low
Sarko is a shoo-in.
Sarkozy seems to out preform the polling while Royal seems to do has expected same for Bayrou
A french analyst on News 24 has just said the exit poll is accurate because it is not a poll, it shows votes actually cast. Not quite sure how this could be. Anyone?
GAME OVER
I think I’ve blown my all green position in the last 30 minutes by backing Royal and laying Sarko; hopefully their odds will move in the right direction!
109 Baffling and suspect. I still think Mike’s idea is likely to proved right.
Whoever was whingeing about Le Pen can rest easy now. Sarko has lanced the boil, by addressing voters’ fears about immigration, crime and identity.
I wish the left would learn from results like this. The way you prevent the far right gaining in strength, is not by screaming racism, and sneering at the humble voter as a Nazi, its by actually discussing issues like race and migration.
Mrs Thatcher nixed the NF by her tough-but-fair stance on immigration. Britain may need some of the same medicine soon, to shoot the BNP’s fox.
111 You’ll have a good idea fairly soon, Noisy. Sarko would have to be at least 4 points clear to feel really confident.
109 - French exit polls are based on a sample of actual votes cast, and tend to be quite accurate.
100 - I have been in most of the day awaiting Tory canvassers. I would not have kept you more than a couple of hours. Glad to see you were spending time in Thames ward; must mean it’s a two horse race! NIce to see you picking up the left wing vote - solid Labour people who voted for Michael Foot etc. Looks like Cameron has compromised more than I thought!
(PS: Like the bar chart on your latest leaflet! Am I right or was it based on last local elections in Reading East bit of Reading Borough Council?)
109 The presenter has now repeated this.
Figures to a decimal place are -
Sarko 30.0
Royal 25.2
Bayrou 18.3
Le Pen 11.5
Aren’t French election nights boring?
Get the exit poll, all go to bed.
arrrggghhh, Sarko’s odds are now tighter than Eva Green’s derriere!
115. They still don’t account for people being ashamed of voting for the Far Right and not admitting it.
109 - presumably it’s just a confused translation. The exit poll is not a poll because it is based on people who are known to have cast votes.
Last Betfair price matched on Royal - 4.0 (ie 3/1) and lengthening, and for Sarko 1.33 and closing. The punters don’t seem to share Mike’s view it is 50-50.
121 - Huh? They were so ashamed of admittig to voting for Le Pen that they actually didn’t vote for him just in case?
Le Temps now showing at 1915
NS 29.4%
SR 26.2%
http://www.letemps.ch/
118
I think it is because it is a first round vote and nothing shocking has happen in that vote.
Also will someone please tell me why the French don’t have parliamentary along with the Presidential elections together?
Would that not make more sense?
121. They do account for that - they are largely based on counts in the small towns and villages where the polling stations close at 6.
118. We still have the excitement of seeing how individual departements balloted, and the dominions overseas, with their payroll vote. How can you call that boring?
Is the official poll likely to be the most reliable? The problem is that we don’t know second preferences of e.g. Bayrou voters. On the face of it Sarko has a slight edge for round 2, but not enough for the odds being quoted on him.
Timothy at 219 in the previous thread - no, there is no mechanism in Britain for ‘recalling’ an MP. Some American states have it, others not, I think.
126. The president appoints the pm and obviously you have to get the presidency settled before you can dissolve parliament.
Not for the first time but that does not mean I am wrong. Wait for the results
128. And the site competition Sean, there’s a book up for grabs…..!
129 - 4-5% more than justifies the odds quoted on him IMO.
O/T Sky News current trailer (headlines every 15 minutes). Can’t think that was run past the Labour Party for approval!
18. OK, it is quite boring. I’m going out for a beer. Sarko is SO going to win its unbelievable. Vive le petit Hongarien demi-juife.
France24 reports Bayrou’s supporters shouting “No way Sarkozy!”
Does anybody have a link to actual vote count?
if Le pen is underestimted then surley it is sarkozy that is coresspondingly overestimated, i think that if royal gets within two percent of sark then she has a chance
135 - like thats going to change anything
When does Blair endorse Sarko?
135 - and how about his voters?
137 - Not if they just refuse to say how they voted.
120 & 131 - Sit tight, Noisy and Mike.
Somebody just made the point that it looks like Sarkozy snatched a lot of Le Pen’s vote. If that’s true, there are fewer ‘easy votes’ left. Also, Sarkozy has galvanised the left, so a lot of the also-rans will swing behind Royal.
That 3.5 Royal still looks good value to me.
131 Hope you’re right. I’m green on both but Sarko’s odds lengthening and Royal’s narrowing would suit me now.
I’m wondering why there seems to be no exit poll which asks about second preferences.
http://www.premier-ministre.gouv.fr/information/les_dossiers_actualites_19/election_presidentielle_2007_900/presidentielle_2007_pas_pas_58063.html
That might help you Jan.
Where do Sky get their presenters from? One of them just said “Sarkozy has got 29.6% of the vote”.
Royal out at 4.2 on the exchanges. if that exit poll is coirrect, the one showing Sarkozy 5% ahead then it becomes a little more tricky to make a big case for backing Royal below 3-3.5.
I reckoned, mere minutes ago that she would fall below 2.5 on a decent performance but now…
Make that 4.1 and £38 at those odds, interesting.
First official estimates on 33,6% of the bulletins:
Nicolas Sarkozy 3.758.869 30,58%
Royal Segolene 2.986.879 24,30%
Francois Bayrou 2.230.522 18,14%
Jean-Marie Le Pen 1.415.017 11,51%
Olivier Besancenot 521.741 4,24%
Philippe de Villiers 326.277 2,65%
Frederic Nihous 227.724 1,85%
Marie-George Dresser 214.958 1,75%
Jose Bove 190.160 1,55%
Domenica Voynet 189.127 1,54%
Arlette Laguiller 180.134 1,47%
Gerard Schivardi 51.548 0,42%
If this speech is anything to go by sarko is certainly going to be tough to beat.
How do you say “no way” in French? Huis clos?
145. Mail order service….
149. That sounds like what they were shouting.
No way is Sarko gonna lose. The lead is widening by the minute. Au revoir Sego, you crazy loco socialiste maman.
148. It’s Mrs T, 30 years on isn’t it?
149 - Too much Sartre there - that means ‘no way out’ I think!
147. Do we have idea of what areas are reporting?
Slightly O/T but I am gagging for Sego to win. I visit France regularly and recognise it is only a nice place because of the CAP and excessive statism that keeps it locked in the past.
Sego is most likely to keep them that way - Long live the state subsidised bakeries! Long live Sego
147. Small towns and villages mainly.
156 - could we compromise and get them to open the odd shop after midday on a saturday?
157 - has to favour Sarko surely.
158 - now you ask too much!!
159. I assume that explains the gap between the results released so far and the official projection.
156. The question now is - presuming Sarko wins, which he’s gonna - having willed the means, can the French will the ends? He’s still gotta introduce lots of painful reforms, which will have the farmers burning cockerels on the Champs Elysees. Your stagnant, decliniste France may survive yet…
4.1..gone..4..gone on Royal…below 4 now..I wouldnt play too much if it got too much lower myself.
Le Pen: “We won the war of ideas”
My final post before beertime. Does this mean anything for Britain, or is it just the French catching up with Thatcherism 30 years late?
Can we expect a rightward shift in the UK, or are we stuck with the gaylording ponceyboots and Broon Sauce and their tedious middle-of-the-roadosity? Can my language get any more baroque and absurd?
I’d vote for Sarko if he were a Brit pol. The French are lucky to have him.
162 stagnant, decliniste places are quite good for holidays and retirement
Does anybody have a link to live web coverage of the election? Radio is OK but TV is better? Also any official/unofficial election results webpage where the %s for different departements will be posted when they have been counted?
165. I thought you were ALREADY drinking Sean,cheers and enjoy your travels.
Le Pen’s percentage is very low, but his numbers aren’t much lower than last time.
134 - seanT, you remind me enormously of Kieron Quirke. Although I disagree with your general political stance (and his), I mean that as a compliment
OK, these are just exit polls, but even if the precise numbers are a bit out I think we can assume that the ordering of the candidates is about right: Sarkozy - Royal - Bayrou - Le Pen.
If that is indeed the case, it makes me happy. Le Pen is showing up worse in these exit polls than many of us (myself included) had predicted, perhaps due to Sarkozy’s tough attitude on crime and immigration as seanT suggeseted; and almost all the polls so far have shown that if ‘Sarko and Sego’ go through to the next round, the former will beat the latter.
It’s still not certain - if, say, most of Bayrou’s voters go to Royal while most of Le Pen’s go to Sarkozy, the second round should be very close. But I think the markets are right in giving Sarkozy the lowest odds here.
167. france24.com
172 cheers.
Also a far left candidate got about 4.5% which should be Sego’s
Hold the phone. Le Pen not as high as many thought. Has Sarkozy picked some of that off?
If so, this suggests that the assumption that Bayrou’s vote may split in favour of Sarkozy is a touch optimistic if Sarkozy has been really pushing a fairly hard agenda. Not that it has to split in his favour, just enough.
Interesting also that perhaps Sarkozy’s strength is outside the likes of Paris. Where are the media largely based? Paris. Is there a possibility of a skew from the media towards Royal based on what they hear and see?
Just hypothesising.
Very Similar result to the one Mitterand’s first victory in 1981! Sego has the mo.
Change of topic,but are there any constitutional lawyers who read this site?
If so, any comments on Goldsmith after his interview on Sky today
174. France24 reports 36% left/far-left and 42.5% right/far-right.
Voting in the second round is not compulsory if you voted in the first… remember
They have kept LePen out so the job is done? So in the second round those that came out specially can relax as the horrible one is out of it?
176. Different time. Take the rose tinted’s off, its nto that straightforward.
Is the done thing that Bayrou actually suggest where his voters should go in round 2?
Yeah but I think Le Pen voters are less likely to turn out than say Bayrou voters
176 - Of course in 1981 Bayrou’s party was the party of the Right
From listening to the coverage it sounds as if Sego is going to campaign on an anti-Sarkozy ticket, whereas Sarko is going to portray himself as campaigning on an inclusive ticket. Only one winner there?
Sarkozy is the smarter politician, a quick rousing speech, a walk in the street both demonstrating his popularity, dynamism and all on prime time .. and in the meantime the lady is…?
181 Different time yes, but “the mo” point is fair. The best Sarko the frontrunner from the start can do is to stay level. He will lose his margin over Sego. The question is by how much. As Mike says don’t rule out France to give a woman the presidency for the first time. Sarko reminds me of Nixon.
176-Where are Marchais’ 15% then?
Sarkozy’s security detail is awful, the helmeted photographers could be anyone. Surely he has a government detail especially now he is now the front runner let alone a minister?
Apologies for going off topic, but Gordon Brown is available to back at 1.20 on Betdaq and to lay at 1.15 on Betfair and as this situation might not last long, punters might want to make the most of it.
De Villiers (2.5%, right) refuses to back Sarkozy.
186 - Nixon the twice elected president?
Bayrou’s voters will not go to Sego by any means. Historically i think i am right in saying his is a party of the right, and the commentators are saying that many of his MPs will go to Sarko. It is true that his vote was probably boosted quite largely with left wing voters seeing him as the best option, but the fact that he got the votes rather than Sego presumably says a lot.
And as we saw from Sarko’s speech it appears he has been very quick to tap into the “inclusive” platform that Bayrou represented. Sego simply cannot do that, so dependent is she on strong anti-Sarko votes.
186. I’m not concerned either way, I win on either of them.
186-You mean winning a landlside in 1972?
Is it possible that Bayrou also attracted a lot of right wing voters uneasy about some of Sarko’s more hardline stances? But who will come back into line now he has failed.
191 He lost the first time he tried!
Bayrous party is more akin to the Germen Free Democratic Party liberals.
191 - I suppose Nixon had to lose before he won. But I agree, I think the second round is close to a foregone conclusion now.
I ca’t see Sarkozy losing this now; looking at the polls it’s conceivable he might actually move ahead to a 6% lead. It would have been a nice windfall to have had Bayrou in the second round but, hey, not enough people voted for him.
Pollsters were pretty accurate. Wonder who won the PB contest? My impression is that most people overestimated le Pen.
http://elections.lesechos.fr/elections2007/presidentielle/flash/fr/2007/index1.html
results map
200 - Mr Chip looks pretty close. I had Le Pen down at 14%, I hoped it would be lower but wasn’t brave enough to go with it.
Now we know why Le Pen was launching the recent attacks on Sarkozy, he knew he was shedding to Sarkozy.
Thanks, double carpet - this also shows the actual count, which after 2% counted looks extremely different from the polls…but no doubt just an unrepresentative set of districts…
196 - I think very few politicians in France follow that kind of market liberalism, and those that do are predominantly in the UMP. Historically the UDF has been the non-Gaullist centre-right; if there has been one key difference it’s been that Gaullists are much more EU-sceptic. But with the advent of the UMP, much of the UDF’s right has gone across to Gaullism, so the centre of gravity of the UDF has moved leftwards.
This is the best I can make of it anyway - certainly no expert on French politics.
I’ve just heard a BBC reporter suggest that Bayrou’s support is considered to be 60 leaning right, 40% leaning left.
Not sure its a simple as that but interesting all the same.
202. TNS are sayong Sarkozy ate big time into Le Pen support.