Is Gord making ground on the Bullingdon mob?
April 24th, 2007
Big boost for Lib Dems in latest ICM poll
The ICM April survey for the Guardian tomorrow is just out and the headline figures show a reduction in the Tory lead and a three point increase in the Lib Dem share. The totals with changes on last month are: CON 37%(-4): LAB 30% (-1): LD 21% (+3). Of the minor parties both UKIP and the Greens are on 2%.
There was also a drop in the Tory lead when voters were asked the “named leader” question - “who would you vote for if it was Cameron’s Tories against Brown’s Labour and Ming’s LDs?”. These are the shares compared with last month - CON 40% (-3): LAB 28% (nc) : LD 20% (+2).
The survey took place at the weekend after a bad week for the Tories when there was a series of poor Commons performances and the Greg Dyke issue.
The big winners in the polls are the Lib Dems who have seen a big increase in their vote share in the two surveys that have come out today. CR had good numbers for Ming’s party this morning.
UPDATE: Other points from the poll:-
Mike Smithson
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Wow, minus 4 is a big drop, perhaps I was too harsh on CR.
But if you want a prediction, mine is that the Tories will get 42% in the locals (notional national).
36-37% just does not chime with what I am hearing on the doorsteps
I’ll still take 40-28 though!
tory party in panic Lib Dems surging to victory as Labour swim around doing nothing - situation normal
But how many real voters have really been swung by Commons performances or Greg Dyke?
1. This is not a surprise. Cameron has a relatively quiet couple of weeks media wise. As Mr S points out when this happens Tory share always always drops. Thrown in pisspoor performance by Fox and the London thing hardly surprising is it. But I still don’t think that a twelve point although this cannot be stressed enough notional deficit is much for Gord to write home about. Your’re right about Locals. If last time is any guide the success and consequent Cameron media profile should very much push them back above 40% I think to say.
1. These are NOT polls for local elections. I repeat, these are NOT polls for local elections. Stop commenting on them as if they were.
The ICM poll sounds about right to me.
I only believe polls during the run up to elections - because that’s the only time they can mean anything.
Good lib dem performance reflects the strength of the council base, you can’t move for orage diamonds round here, such visibility is paying dividens in terms of votes.
For the sake of my Brown no-bounce prediction I’d prefer it if labour stuck above 30%, I wasn’t expecting them to descend this far, even Brown might pick up from here.
‘orange’, ‘dividends’
Is this this not more likely to be due to LibDem local campaigns for the local elections reminding voters less interested in politics that there is another opposition party?
1. Test “But if you want a prediction, mine is that the Tories will get 42% in the locals (notional national)”
you won’t probably be off mark.
April 2006 ICM had Con at 34 and the notional national figure of the locals had them at 39.
Now they’re at 37, so 42 looks likely.
Should we start to write the obituary of the Conservative party? They seem to be in free fall!
Rik where are you we when you are needed?
average movement in ICM polls since Dec
tory -0.75 points
lab -0.5
LD +1 point
this is remarkably similar to the Jan ICM poll except in that one the LDs went up 5 points not 4. It does mean though that it is possible to create a bar chart with the LDs in the lead and the tories last!
5 - Fox really is rubbish, I can’t see how ConHome keeps coming up with figures saying he’s doing a good job. A good job for other parties, yes, I’d agree.
He can make all the ground he wants the question is can he make up enough.
The question posed was pretty much answered by the substance of the article, the Tories had a crap period recently. The gap is not purely Labour’s to close, its the Tories advantage to lose.
12 Icarus, I think on May 4th Lab and LD will be wearing the shrouds and we’ll be hanging out the bunting.
Kingbongo - Lib Dem Bar charts always show us as just second - one more vote (yours) and we will be there!
Delighted that the weakness of the Tories position has been exposed by a real election!!
17. Icarus, “Lib Dem Bar charts always show us as just second ”
Even when you’re in first?
17
but I don’t know what ‘real election’ you’re talking about - it doesn’t happen until next week!
18 Especially when we are in first…the number of by-elections where we have been accused of exaggerating our chances when in fact we are downplaying them!
Anyway two nice polls, but still a long way to go.
Andrea Read your theory and practice of Lib Dem Bar Charts:
Chapter 3: The Bar Chart as incentive to turn out.
“… even if you are well in front, a bar chart showing the Lib Dem just behind motivates your supporters to come and vote.”
20. Peter
Has Diane managed to learn the Chopin prelude or not?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/music/playitagain/programmes/series1/dianeabbott/
16. In take issue with you both. The Tories will do very well, but Test such is the beating Labour will take I think that the Lib Dems will do more than enough to compensate for Tory gains in the South. So while I predict a big smile on Cameron’s face I think you are unwise not to think there will be a at the least small grin of satisfaction on Campbell’s face.
14 Montgomerie and Fox are ideological blood brothers what do you expect. Guido has already claimed that the “Shadow Cabinet” source that snipes at Cameron is not a million miles away. But then that’s Guido’s opinion.
Another prediction - the LibDems will do so badly in the local elections that Labour won’t be the only party going through a leadership change.
24 So define what level of losses you expect , Test .
24. See 23. I do not preclude the Lib Dems replacing Campbell before next General Election but if you think it’ll be as a direct result of May when a modest net gain is vey much on I think you are way way of beam.
25. In the past you have also predicted the demise of the Tories more often than not. So allow Test his moment of fun, even if he is equally off mark I think.
I wouldn’t mind if Fox was just rubbish. He, and the wing of the party he claims to represent actually scare me. Fortunately i’ve got a choice between a Libdem and Zac, who may turn out to be rubbish, but definitely couldn’t scare anyone convincingly
A party that claims to be THE opposition dropping well below 40% in the polls, imploding in the Commons - Fox, Osbourne and Cameron all failing recently. With the Government not covering itself in glory. And to cap it all Rik thinking you’re doing well!- I think you should be worrying Test!
26 True Punter , I have always said my preference is that that Campbell would go this autumn to be replaced by Lynne Featherstone
Meanwhile, Andrea, it’s 3-2 at Old Trafford. Match seems to be going with serve.
28. Oh dear Punch and Judy again. Carry on Test/Icarus.
29. I still remain to be convinced that is wise. Harrogate was a blunder of the first order in political positioning but I think Ming will get the year to redeem himself. If you finish at 19-22% average by this time next year I do not see what you would benefit. Remember Australian Labor’s ridicule at changing Leader more often than their shirts. I also think you are suffering Segeolene syndrome. Laws I think if you did get rid of Ming is your stand out candidate.
30. PtP. Ah.
I’m sure you’ve followed the tennis matches of your female team in FedCup last week. They managed not to get relegated from their current division (even if they managed to lose against Luxembourg)
I understand the term Tories is an insult, apparently a Gaelic term meaning thief.
If the poll was phrased as “Cameron’s Conservatives” or “Gordon’s Socialists” or even “Ming’s Whigs” a different result could be achieved again.
You should expect the Guardian to use language to achieve their best result
A party that claims to be THE goverment flatlining at 30% and below in the polls, imploding in the media - Blair, Browne, Hewitt all failing recently. With the opposition not covering itself in glory…
It’s at times like this when I think Ming really is doomed - a distinct climb in the polls is greeted by talk of his departure.
Strange.
32 Women are allowed to play tennis, Andrea? Whatever next?! They’ll be letting them drive soon.
32 I answer you previous thread.
33 - plenty of Conservatives are happy to use the term themselves. I suspect what the word meant 300 years ago isn’t really a live issue.
25, 26. I am not at all joking, I predict 100 net losses for the LDs at a time when they should by rights make very big gains from Labour and the second disastrous locals in a row should see a cry for change.
I should admit I’m not as strong on this as I am that the Tories will do very well indeed and much, much better than 36-7%
36. Peter, yes, and the Jordan women were trashed by all teams (even Kazakistan and New Zealand)
Very O/T
Paging Peter The Punter
Good Evening,I have some encouraging news concerning “Dubai Twilight” running at Epsom tomorrow in the 2.20.
Have you any thoughts? I need some cash for the weekend!!
39.?. So you think Labour will hold the line v Lib Dems when the LIb Dems are on the up in the Polls, when they always perform better in Locals. I think you’re way off base. I think they will ship to you in the South and gain from Labour in the North.; the ant Lab mood is strong, and in many areas they are the only alternative north of the Trent. I think 1-100 Lib Dem gains.
If only there was some way we could all quantify our predictions; perhaps even in a financial way.
42. Punter “So you think Labour will hold the line v Lib Dems when the LIb Dems are on the up in the Polls, when they always perform better in Locals. I think you’re way off base. I think they will ship to you in the South and gain from Labour in the North”
The scope of LDs gain from Lab is in authorities last up in 2003. In the ones 1/3 they will probably exchange seats as they did last year.
Is there a scottish poll out?
If so does anyone have the figures?
45 no
29
“Campbell would go this autumn to be replaced by Lynne Featherstone”
About as likely as the discovery of the Congo icecap?
41 Well, hello there Prince Monolulu! I didn’t expect to hear from you again.
I may indeed have some views on the 2.20 at Epsom tomorrow but before we get into that, can we have some clarification please of the bet you struck with Icarus? A monkey, I believe?
On - or not?
Not sure this tells us anything about Gordon, it just seems the Lib Dems have gained a few points as a few people who will vote LD in the locals (Where they will do better as usual than in other elections) claim they will also vote for the in a General Election, even though they probably wont.
44. Which of these 2003ers are north of the Trent. These should be their best chance, with the notable exception of Bristol.
BTW I replied to you on WA.
One interesting element of the poll is:
“A majority of voters, 54%, say the next general election should bring a change of government. Only 21% think Britain should stick with Labour.”
The “time for a change” meme is an important one at General Elections (usually against the “Let us finish the job/Don’t let them ruin it” meme.
This is the element that should cause most concern to the Labour supporters, because once it gains traction, it tends to be pretty much irreversible (cf Jim Callaghan’s comments in the approach to the ‘79 election).
As to whether Big Gordo could act as the face of change:
“Mr Brown’s dominant role as chancellor means that voters inevitably connect him with Labour’s decade in power: only 22% think that his arrival at No 10 would represent a fresh start for the government. Most, 71%, including 53% of Labour voters, think he would offer continuity.”
… it looks difficult. It is, however, completely necessary for him to pull it off. If I were him, I’d be steadily dripping stories into the media about his being overruled by Tony on certain issues[1] but having to go along in order to get other things[2] done.
For [1] insert “unpopular” or “obviously-flawed-in-retrospect” initiative.
For [2] insert “popular” or “obviously necessary” initiative.
Repeat and rinse.
He has to separate himself from a big chunk of the last decade - regardless of how well or badly it is perceived - because the “time for a change” tide is rising.
(Disclaimer - I obviously hope that he doesn’t succeed there, but I’ve tried to analyse impartially)
Things are going to be DISASTROUS for the Lib Dems. I know of at least two major local authorities where they are going to make more gains than they want to and will end up taking control of snakepits whose financial situation would make Robert Maxwell blush, and where the senior officers are to governance what Pinky and Perky are to nuclear physics.
“Oh it all makes fun for the bureaucrats to do….”
43.
48.
PtP I am waiting for a ruling from the stewards as it appears David Miliband reared up at the start and took no further part in the proceedings.Perhaps blinkers will do the trick next time out.
54 Hmm…few crimes greater than welshing on a bet, Monolulu, where I was dragged up.
42
‘I think 1-100 Lib Dem gains.’
Little chance of you being wrong with a prediction like that!
So what’s your definition of a good result for the Lib Dems in terms of net seats gained?
35 I fully accept that my view is a minority but not lone one in the party but it has been consistent since befor Ming became leader .
I suspect the rising Lib Dem trend is being caused by the fact we are in electoral season and increased coverage and lots of leaflets/canvassing is reinvigorating their vote. The falling Tory share is probably being caused by the fact that Cameron has not really been in the news.
However that is not to say that Cameron does not have some worries. Recent attempts by his juniors to derail labour over defence/pensions were not particularly successful and remind us that the shadow cabinet remains pretty weak. He needs to reinvigorate it and bring in some more natural media performers. Only David Davis can be said to be making a success of his role.
The lack of policy is also troubling. I can see why he needs to wait for the commission reports on some matters, but I cannot see why on a subject like constitutional reform he need stay silent. I would personally like to see him come out strongly for a fully elected House of Lords, which I believe to be not only right from a meritocratic point of view but also a method of demonstrating that the Tories are continuing to change.
56. Not according to Test. Results, acceptable 1-50. Good 50-70. Very Good 70-100.
57.
The first part of your postulate is perhaps a pleasant dream. The second, a nightmare at point nine on the Richter scale. Bring back Mr Oaten and his cheeky boys!
Looking back on last years local elections, how near the mark were YouGov and ICM in their last monthly poll before them?
Am I correct in thinking that some of the pollsters have adjusted their methodology since the Conservatives started to lead Labour in the polls, didn’t they often overstate Labour while understating the Conservatives?
58. He has done, but let’s be honest Joe Public doesn’t give a toss re HoL reform. I think Rifkind will play a role, he may not be Mr Charisma but he knows vewry well how to handle a brief and the media.
On Policy well he won’t show his hand before GB shows his. He would be downright mad to do so. See 5 think.
61 I don’t think there has been any change in methodology over the last year by the major pollsters . The last Yougov poll before last May’s locals was not too hot Con 35 Lab 32 LibDem 18 .
***NEWS FLASH***
Calculations made on Yougov poll data published 22nd April 2007(the most accurate pollster in 2003), show that the SNP poll lead WILL NOT TRANSLATE INTO MORE SEATS IN THE SCOTTISH PARLIAMENT.
Simply take the Yougov figure, and adjust by the error in 2003 (pro-Labour and negative SNP) and this wipes out the seats lead when plugged into the Scotland Vote’s seats calcuator.
In other words - although the SNP are set for an historic win of the populator vote, they will have less seats than Labour in Hollyrood, based on the Yougov poll adjusted for the ‘2003 error’.
58: My understanding is that the Tories are hoping to match Gordon’s expected policy blitz with a blitz of their own, and have been holding back for that. I don’t think that will work, though - for a little while Gordon’s new policies will be more newsworthy. They had two main jobs in the interim while waiting for Labour to change its leader: to persuade people they were worth a fresh look (succeeded) and that they were a substantial alternative (missed).
Re 62: I agree with you about HoL. But by stating something like that it gives another indicator to those who are feeling warmer towards the Tories but are not ready to commit yet that the party is changing and are not solely out to look after the Upper Class elite.
Re 64.
The SNP needed a lead of 10% in the Yougov poll which would put them comfortably ahead in seats, but they have got only 7% which puts them just behind in seats, when adjusted for the 2003 error.
63.Thanks Mark, I just seemed to remember possible Mike Smithson? mentioning something about the pollsters adjusting their methodology to take into account the new phenomenon of shy Labour voters and people incorrectly remembering how they voted?
Conservatives now only 3% above the result managed by Michael Howard at the last election. Slightly less on this mornings poll. Obviously if I suggested a leadership crisis in the Tory Party at this stage I would just sound like a gloating Labour supporter so I’ll resist!
Nonetheless anyone who can tell me they havent heard rumbles about Mr Cameron and team should get out more. The bubble hasn’t yet burst but it’s thinning fast. If he asked for my advice I’d tell him to start trying to look like a serious politician because at the moment he and the shadow chancellor look like a joke.
54 “few crimes greater than welshing on a bet”
Hang on, mate. This looks a bit racist to me. I suppose you Saeswn never fail to honour a gambling debt?
64/67 I am sure there are many punters on Betfair who will welcome you putting your money where you belief is by laying the SNP as largest party .
65. I can hardly wait for all these thrilling new policies from GB…ASBOs for those fail to top up their child trust funds…more choice about what strain of MRSA you get in hospital…90 day detention for dangerous pensioners (tagging having obviously failed)…
69. No they’re not
Roger (at 69) is quite right. Cameron and his front bench team are really pretty pathetic.
I have been finding quite a few disillusioned Conservatives recently. Have they been turning up elsewhere (except in Reading, of course)?
65.Sorry Nick, but I think the lack of a Labour leadership contest with at least 2/3 credible candidates will be a missed opportunity and will be looked back upon as a mistake.
It will fail to persuade people that a Labour government under Brown is worth a fresh look or that there will be any substantive sense of renewal.
65 Gordon is putting a lot into his 100 day policy blitz - events though….the possible NHS / nurses industrial action? other state employee unrest? Scotland? Iraq? EU Treaty? IMHO by October we will be back to the around same picture in terms of polls but with the added benefit of real politics at play. Then Cameron needs to show substance. If he fails most likely a hung parliament.
The answer to the question Mike posed is most likely no - Gordon isn’t winning back support (Labour -1 might be better than Conservatives -4, but Labour are getting to core vote territory so each percentage loss is more significant) the LIberals are making a pre-locals charge and others are getting a look in.
Just out of curiosity is it the government who would set St George’s day down as a public holiday in England?
71. I have only just discovered this. If you’d like to go with the SNP, put your money on Betfair, as I am laying now. I am getting out.
78. Also will publish the detailed figures tomorrow.
The picture of GB on Guido’s web site seems to suggest that he is trying to cultivate the freemasons.
I have a vote in the Welsh election. Will the Welsh blindly vote for the Labour party again or might there be a change? Labour can only form a coalition with the Lib Dems I would have thought. Might Plaid be tempted into a coalition with the Tories?
I agree with those who see the Lib Dem bounce as being the result of increased loacl activity around the country with the local elections due next week. London is the only major area without elections so Lib Dem leaflets and canvassers will have been out in force. Visbility obvioulsy brings votes so Lord Rennard will be pleased that members practice what he is preaching.
80.
“he is trying to cultivate the freemasons.”
I would recommend he do this by pouring horse manure over their heads.
69. Great stuff Roger. After your brilliant matinee performance earlier, I hadn’t expected an evening entertainment of such high quality as well.
76. “Then Cameron needs to show substance.” Class A or Class C?
70 Small ‘w’ , cymru - no insult implied or intended.
And no, I have never failed to honour a bet - whatever verb you use.
Was just watching Newsnight and if Cameron doesn’t find better media representatives than Theresa Villiers then Conservatives will definitely not going over 40%. Faced by Angela Eagle (Snowflake?) she was completely at sea. It’s obvious that a Treasury minister will dredge up Black Wednesday & comparisons with the 18 years of Tory Govt - so be ready to fight back not stutter out a weak offence. Cable wasn’t much better - silenced by one Eagle response in terms of Lib Dems annually forecast house price disaster.
87. Ted, Angela Eagle is not a Treasury minister (she isn’t a minster at all) but she sits in the Treasury Select Committee
69 - Roger’s note begs the question, If Cameron is in crisis at 37%, what is Brown at 30%???
87.Agree with you there Ted, so many open goals and every opportunity missed!
Re 87: Is there a market anywhere on what the average house price in the UK will be in say 1 year’s time? I am very confident there is about to be a drop in house prices.
Why is Will L trying to convince us that the proportional part of the Scottish election system will behave irrationally and give victory in seats to Labour?
Interesting numbers in that poll!
This is what happens, when you go out campaigning it all happens!
Still I have penned this on the election in my ward:
http://aconservatives.blogspot.com/2007/04/liberal-democrats-on-run-in-ashenground.html
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article1701553.ece
Riddell acknowledges the genius of the cameroon masterplan.
89.Would have thought that the success of the last Conservative leadership contest and the subsequent reversal of polling fortunes for us would have made him less eager to advocate another one!
69- “Nonetheless anyone who can tell me they havent heard rumbles about Mr Cameron and team should get out more.”
Pfft, what rot… I work with and around these people day, in day out and I haven’t heard a sausage! Even the usual suspects on the Right are relatively quiet, if not exactly over the moon. If you keep hearing the rumbles I’d invest in buying a packet of Rennies, seems a little more plausible
91. Try Cantorspreadfair if you are keen to lose your money.
It’s true that Theresa Villiers didn’t seem to know what she was talking about but wasn’t it refreshing to see a real Sloany representing the Tories again!
87 - “Cable wasn’t much better - silenced by one Eagle response in terms of Lib Dems annually forecast house price disaster” - Cable can be very dull and “we’re all doomed”-like on TV. I also wish he would stop shutting his eyes; Ashdown did it and it drives me nuts.
74 - “Cameron and his front bench team are really pretty pathetic.” - no, not all of them. There are some good ones; Cameron, Willetts, Rutlandboy, erm…
This week, I have to say Osborne has been been trumped. Liam Fox, you are the weakest link, goodbye. It may well be Fox briefing against Cameron. He’s always been a backstabbing bastard!
What some deranged postings this evening!! Icarus, Icarus you do make yourself look a fool when you post like you have tonight (and last night).
Come to Reading and see in a seat which the Lib Dems only last year were talking of as a “three way fight” next time, and I challenge you to find a SINGLE Lib Dem poster any where. I have yet to see one and I am standing in a ward they are allegedly defending!
The truth is that in areas like Reading and Wokingham they are collapsing. Only a couple of years ago the LDs controlled Wokingham and were the official opposition in Reading. This year, despite Labour’s difficulties, they are unlikely to make any advance in seats in Reading and will lose more seats in Wokingham. They will prob go backwards in West Berks and Windsor & Maidenhead!
It is very likely that in Reading we Conservatives will come close to doubling our representation on the Council!
So whilst I would prefer to be +4% rather than -4% in an ICM poll, I am hardly feeling down right now. The canvassing returns are consistently good, wherever I go and the Lib Dems are an irrelevance!
96 - Peter you are absolutely right! But one thing that never troubles some posters on here is the truth!!
To those in the know?
How does the improvement in the Tory perfomance affect SNP - who hold the old Tory seats? Theer is no Labour vote to squeeze in some of those seats.
Prince Monolulu - I think it was an ante post bet. We are nowhere near the stalls yet.
99.I have to admit that I got pretty irate at both of them, neither Villiers or Cable have impressed me when they have been involved in this kind of debate.
Eagle droned on and on giving them both plenty of ammunition and the two of them just did not appear interested in the debate, never mind attacking some of Eagles claims!
O/T - French theme driven by Will L.
As someone said on the last thread, a 50/50 prediction isn’t that weird given that every exit poll Sunday gave Sarkozy a lead of something like 52/48%. The latest Ipsos tracker (the best predictor in round one) has him with 54% and her with 46%. More interestingly, with 91% of those questioned now firm in their choice, there is little room for manoeuvre between now and May 6. Ipsos found that three-quarters of the non-PS left vote would go to Royal and 80% of the non-UMP/UDF right to Sarkozy. Bayrou’s vote would split 38% for Royal, 35% Nicolas Sarkozy and 27% either abstaining or refusing to answer.
Is there a risk Royal pulls this off? Of course. Sarkozy can be ill-disciplined sometimes and he can scare people. She might even pull off this attempt to appeal to the centre. But I really doubt it. Bayrou can’t make the leap without destroying his party. She is facing a rebellion from the left for reaching out to Bayrou. And, unless she and Sarkozy break the habits of the entire campaign, she cannot beat him in the TV debate. So, while the risk is there, it’s still hard to see Sarkozy losing.
99- Agree on completely on Fox, personally I think he’s a waste of space. He didn’t do himself any favours the other week responding to Des Browne either IMO. The problem is that it’s politic for the leadership to keep him relatively sweet so it’s difficult to get rid of him entirely… From what I’ve heard it seems unlikely that he’ll stay in Defence beyond the next reshuffle though, although god knows what they could move him to.
It would be rather nice to see some of the more effective Junior Shadow Ministers move up the chain- Mark Harper, Nick Gibb etc. Really think that Rifkind is under-utilised at the moment as well, although I suppose it’s difficult if his heart is set on being Shadow Foreign Secretary.
Have we had much reshuffle speculation yet around here actually? It always seems to provide endless fun…
100 - “Come to Reading and see in a seat which the Lib Dems only last year were talking of as a “three way fight” next time” - which? Or would that be telling?
106 - Impossible to under-utilise Malcolm Rifkind.
107. To be honest it isn’t saying much if a seat the fib Dems claimed was a target for them in reality turns out not to be, is it?
106.”Really think that Rifkind is under-utilised at the moment as well, although I suppose it’s difficult if his heart is set on being Shadow Foreign Secretary.”
It is a shame that he would only accept the shadow Foreign Secretary post, he would have been a passionate and vocal defender of the military at Defence.
“So whilst I would prefer to be +4% rather than -4% in an ICM poll, I am hardly feeling down right now. The canvassing returns are consistently good, wherever I go and the Lib Dems are an irrelevance!”
- the operative phrase Rik is “whereever I go”. I know Cameron has a “Hello Clouds , Hello Sky” reputation but I think you should keep your feet on the ground.
“It is very likely that in Reading we Conservatives will come close to doubling our representation on the Council!”
Shame we don’t have stickies on this blog.
Rik when I joined the Liberal Party we had 6 MPs From my point of view it has been all good since then. Wait until we get PR for Westminster.
The Tories are an unelectable minority!!
111. Icarus have you been in the south of France recently?
The problem for the Tories with the likes of Fox, is that he reminds people why they stopped voting Conservative. Cameron should really keep him off the TV. However, pompous ass though he may be, Rifkind was generally well-received by the public. And while backstabbing coniving bastards like Fox and Iain Duncan-Smith held their seats in 1997, the benevolent Rifkind and Ian Lang did not.
Well, that’s my opinion anyway… goodnight.
110- Agree completely, I think it would be a role that would suit him very well indeed!
107/109 - I mean the Reading East constituency. Last year several posters were talking up their chances at the next GE. Now they can barely put up a credible local govt fight.
SBS - we canvassed your road at the weekend and there is not one Lib Dem poster!!! I cant remember which is your house but I would have thought that a Lib Dem candidate would have managed an orange diamond!!!
110 - “It is a shame that he would only accept the shadow Foreign Secretary post, he would have been a passionate and vocal defender of the military at Defence.” - no doubt he’d have been become Shadow Foreign Sec if either:-
- the Tories had opposed the Iraq invasion
- Rifkind had backed the Iraq invasion
Rifkind just does not fit with the Tory line that invading Iraq was “sort of” OK. Shame!
113- Going to bed too I think, but generally I’m with you on that one. Depressingly I’ve heard talk of Fox being made Shadow Foreign Secretary if he’s moved from Defence. God forbid! Fox vs Beckett would be a deeply depressing commentary on the state of Britain’s foreign relations…
115 - can’t see a Tory poster either. There’s usually one down the bottom.
I will put a poster up. But the big orange diamonds get nicked. Society really is going to the dogs. I blame the council, and my local councillors.
No scallywag (112) why? The fact that the useless Labour Party (useless for putting up, with the policies of this Government) will not do as badly as it should because the Lib Dems have almost been (not quite) as ineffective as the Tories is I accept a problem. I hope I problem we can cure.
100 Rik , every year your postings get more deranged the nearer it gets to polling day . Has it not struck you that the more canvassing you seem to do the LibDems seem to go up in the polls and the Conservatives down .
Re 113, SBS, Stop doing that, you know how I hate agreeing with Liberal Democrats!
113.I would not class Fox and IDS together these days, unlike Fox IDS has proved himself a stalwart team player under the present leadership and he has grown in stature as a politician with his sterling work at the Centre for Social Justice.
I would be surprised if Fox became shadow Foreign secretary, he is not a team player and that has further weakened his already poor shadow cabinet performances.
120 - lol Mark keep taking the tablets! What precisely is “deranged” about what I have said? Anyone who has visited Reading this week could see that what i have said is accurate about posters.
What has surprised me is the number of Conservative posters I have seen up today in houses or cars that we did not have down as a member or supporter.
You may not like what I post but you can test my predictions against the results after the count!
119. Well it was just that you have sounded disturbingly like Roger for the last couple of days. Are you in fact the same person?
This poll seems to show that the with-Blair and then with-Brown voting intentions are beginning, not unnaturally, to merge. Both show Tories down a bit, Labour about the same and LibDems up a bit. and thats about the only interpretation you can make when the MoE is about 3% and the changes ( on the with-Brown figures) are within that.
Boring really.
Re 124: Rik - I agree you might do well in Berkshire but I very much doubt the Tories will do as well as they seem to expect over the country as a whole.
Re 126: Sorry - Rik at 123
126 - well unlike some posters I only tend to comment on areas that I know about. I am sure you are right that for all parties there will be good and bad but I cant help feeling that nationally it will be a good May 3rd/4th for the Conservatives, bad for Labour and indifferent again for the Lib Dems.
re. the earlier post about an SNP lead of 7% not meaning that they would not be the largest party seems completely bizzare to me! True, a lead of 7% would not mean the SNP had the largest number of FPTP seats (with Labour circa 2 ahead,but if the SNP are 7% ahead on both votes then of course they would be the largest party!! I dont know how Will L has worked this out!!
119.”the Lib Dems have almost been (not quite) as ineffective as the Tories is I accept a problem.”
Got to disagree with you there Icarus, the election of David Cameron has brought a real change to the political landscape. He has effectively turned the Conservatives fortunes around and has caused real concern in both the Labour and Libdem camps.
re 129. Hamilton Nat I agree his logic seems completely up the spout and he repeats it on here I’m sure to try and convince himself that he’s right.
Is there any indication that the great Edinburgh sewage crisis is benefiting the Greens?
131 havent heard anyone tell me they are voting green at all, plus their manifesto proposed to abolish Catholic Schools, resulting in the Bishop of Motherwell ( and others I understand) ensuring parish priests advise their flock of this fact- here in sunny Lanarkshire that has not gone down well with Catholic voters- although I would say that the Priest’s influene on their flock will be minimal nowadays? They are also reminding Catholics that the Labour Party ” appear to be in conflict with the Church as Mrs Thatchers Conservatives were” So basically they are taking a swipe at Labour, Tories and Greens in this open letter! The sewage issue may benefit the Greens in their Lothians “stronghold” but here in the West it isnt an issue
129. He’s assuming that the pollsters will be as wrong this time as they were last time - which is utter lunacy, as you might imagine. The pollsters will surely be wrong again, but they will be more accurate and have certainly improved their technique since 2003. This is not an infinite regression of improvement, but now the pollsters have two elections to work off of compared to only one in 2003, and that makes all the difference.
133. To add on, we just saw how making the assumption that pollsters would be wrong in the same fashion can be wildly mistaken. Jean-Marie Le Pen, anyone?
Last Labour matched price to win most seats at GE 2.54 - almost the highest ever (since the market opened, less than $200 has been matched higher out of $181k).
Funny isn’t it? A number of posters on here think things are going wrong for the Conservatives but the market thinks they are in their strongest ever position since the market opened.
I think I’ll trust the market.
74 & 99
‘“Cameron and his front bench team are really pretty pathetic.”
Does anybody actually know (or more importantly care) who is on the Lib Dem front bench apart from Gramps?
100 Rik - one assumes you’ll deny you’ll ever made this post when it goes tits up like all your other ‘predictions’.
I cannot bring myself to be terribly excited about this poll either way. It isn’t one of the better ones that ICM have recently come out with for the Tories and a four point drop with the polling firm which has a reputation for being the most accurate in the industry will be of concern if this lower level is sustained, but hitting bedrock 30% is hardly cheering news for Labour. The Lib Dems have some reason to be pleased with themselves on these figures, but we will see if they can translate them into electoral success a week from tomorrow, won’t we?
105. Mister Chip. Good to hear your reassuring analysis of Sarkozy’s position. And in light of your resounding success in the competition I respect your views.
Will L. If I recall correctly you and I were both wrong in predicting success for The Miliband? Remember him? Was that you or was it Herbert Propter or Will Herbert? Can’t remember exactly. But your predictions appear to go against the tide and are not backed up by convincing evidence. Correct me if I am wrong.
Please cite an instance where you have been correct in your predictions on PBC and I will happily apologise. Though not necesarily in the unreserved mea culpa penitential style of sean T.
I think the LD rise in a national poll can be put down to the exposure they’re getting in campaigning for the local elections.
140. It’s worth noting that, as far as I remember, we saw no such rise last year. On the other hand, there hasn’t been any major news to which we might otherwise attribute the Lib Dem surge.
38 “plenty of Conservatives are happy to use the term themselves. I suspect what the word meant 300 years ago isn’t really a live issue.”
And your point is what exactly?
I understand many Afro-Americans and Afro-Caribeans use the term “nigger”. It is still used as an insult.
A survey “Would you mind if a family of Afro-Caribeans moved next door” would result in a positive response. Changing it to use the n word would result in a different response.
re 140 and 141. There might be something in that. Last year ICM April poll showed a 3% move to the Lib Dems compared with the March figure. Mori also recorded a boost to the Lib Dems of 6%.
143.Key thing about Lib Dem share as faras locals are concerned is comparison with 2003and Tory share.
The swing since 2003 to the Tories from Lib Dems is now 3% whereas last months figure was c 7%.On this basis Lib dem losses to Tories may be contained at at around 100.
RogerH
RogerH - you have to be careful about applying national poll swings to local elections; the situation on the ground in many authorities will be of more importance to voters than who they think should be running the country, particularly where you have straight (or nearly so) Con-LibDem fights, as in many authorities in the south east particuarly.
[101] Rik- You little scallywag you! The vast numbers of Lib Dem defectors lining up to join the Tories was your last little nugget of “truth” wasn’t it?
Piling on votes in Wokingham does not matter one jot, however triumphalist you may feel about it. The Tories will doubtless make some progress in their southern heartlands, but in large areas of the country you are where you were under Howard- and in Scotland you are actually worse off!
105. Mister Chip did the results of the first round cause any soul-searching amongst the pollsters (particuarly I guess CSA) and / or any adjustments? Have there been any stark changes in methodology or results?
123 - I haven’t seen a single poster for any party anywhere in E Reading (although I haven’t been north of the river. The election is invisible round where I live.
Are people round where you are canvassing complaining about the one way IDR a lot or are there other more important issues?
146. Not in Wales they’re not Cicero. It’s the Lib dems who are where they were. They mgight pull off one surprise gain, but you’d best watch yourselves in Montgomeryshire even you should hang on.