Should I take the profit on my free Sego bet?
April 25th, 2007Last Thursday I suggested that a good French election bet was to buy Royal on the Spreadfair 10-25 spread market. This gives 10 points to the runner-up and 25 points to the ultimate winner.
I bought at the 10 level taking what proved to be the right gamble that she would make the second round. This means that the bet cannot be a loser. If Sego loses I break even. If Sego wins I make 15 times my stake level as profit.
The question I now face is whether to close the bet down at the current 13 level making a sure profit now of 3 times my stake or do I hang in to a week on Sunday and hope to get the full amount.
- Which way will the polls go? Does Sego still have a chance?
My knowledge of French polling is limited and certainly at the 49-51 splits there must be a chance.
There’s also the gender issue. Will France vote for a woman? In other countries when faced with the prospect of a female leader for the first time voters have tended to back the woman.
My instinct is to stay with the bet but to keep watching it closely.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
I still think Sego will win…but I seem to be in a very large minority.
Mike, maybe it’s just because of my surroundings here in the City, but I don’t think Royal will win. The fact is that there appears to be something of a sea-change in attitudes, not about the French way of life but about the recognition that so many unemployed young people just isn’t good for anyone, for the economy, for national identity, for security or anything else. This hasn’t been a battle about left versus right solutions to the problems; in people’s minds it is a clear choice between reform versus stasis. I get the sense that too many French are feeling that, rightly or wrongly, time is running out.
Well, compared with sitting tight you gain 12 if she wins and lose 3 if she loses. So in effect you are sitting on a 4-1 bet. If you cash it in and put the money onto her elsewhere, you can get slightly better odds, I think?
As for whether she’ll actually win - I would think it less likely than not, but 4-1+ seems to me pretty generous for such a tight race.
New IFOP poll
sarkozy 53 (-1) / royal 47 (+1)
the non-choice from bayrou and the more and more desperate efforts of royal are beginning to annoy leftists both in the PS and in the far-left parties.
she asked for a public debate with bayrou to try to obtain his support. But he only agreed if this would be on TV, thus using a large part of Royal speaking time on TV…
I backed Royal on Mike’s advice. He made the point at the time on the ‘gender issue’. Coyly put. Nouns have gender: people have sex.
4.This is hardly surprising from Bayrou if whoever wins gets a rollocking in the next five years he is perfectly placed come 2012. Let’s face it Chirac practically bored the French into electing him. How many attempts was it three or five.
BTW Are you aware of those stories about Sarko being reported here. Its distasteful but Sarko had better be prepared for dirty tricks as Giscard was not in 1981.
I notice that the gap is closing in all the polls. Sego is gaining. Sarko is pulling back.
Mike can you not cash in say half your original bet and leave you in profit whatever happens ?
7 - we’ve noticed you’ve noticed
Has that WA poll been leaked yet.
9. What do you mean, Alex.
No way will Royal win. No way.
How many polls have had here in the lead?
None.
11 - pretty self-explanatory i would have though. Barely 20 posts have gone by the last couple of days without you popping up to tell us how support is racing away from Sarko and Sego is going to win.
Re. 12
Only takes one poll - the actual vote.
13.
At your service.
I don’t think Royal has the time to turn it round - no real momentum through the first round, and not appearing any more presidential or knocking chunks out of Sarkozy.
She’s done well to get a good second place in round 1, and that’s probably as far as it goes. Bayrou’s expected call this afternoon was probably her last big shot had he declared for her.
Anyway this is all meant as a bit of good humour, on a rather boring day. Polemic is always more interesting than narrative. I’m off to watch a film. Have a good evening.
I may have to revise my predictions for Lib performance in Wales in May. The attempts to sideline Lemsip have fallen apart. He’s returned from the beach and is embarking on a leaders tour of Wales. Just what they need, well all the other parties need anyway.
16. Indeed. Given that the polls alleged Royal to be gaining on Sarko before the first round, it is he that has the momentum with a gap over Royal more than most predicted and a final tally definitely more than most predicted.
Royal would need a significant stunt or clear agenda. Where is she going to procure one from when her campaign so far as been lacklustre and empty? And, with the televised debates yet to come?!
My colleague, Jonathan M.A. Hall, sitting next to me, suggests that another swim-suit stunt is what is needed.
http://uk.reuters.com/article/domesticNews/idUKL2317545420070425?rpc=401&
Gordon is having a little local difficulty
18
‘ The attempts to sideline Lemsip have fallen apart. He’s returned from the beach and is embarking on a leaders tour of Wales.’
That sounds like a tough assignment,all those MP’s to look after & lead in Wales.
12. She was consistently in the lead before the campaign started.
Mike, Personally I would cash in, and place a bet elsewhere. Move on and have some fun with another bet
24. I am in a similar position you Mike and I am not going to lay yet. The “mood music” seems to be for Sego at moment. Also I wonder why a European punter put 20000 euros on Sego with Ladbrokes this morning?
24. Remember the Chris Huhne betting.
25 Yes - I occasionally post on this site As “return of the Huhnie monster” when similar circumstances occur.
I don’t think Sego has more than a remote chance of winning. So, I’d close my position now, if I were you.
Big backers can be losers as well. People bet for a lot of reasons.
Sofres earlier today had only 25% of Bayrou voters transferring to sarko and the overall lead down to 2%. May be more mileage in this one yet.
When is Waller on 18 Doughty Street. Rennard is a good watch.
20. Comedy gold from that article: “Gordon is real fun. He comes through warm, genuine and amusing”
As has been pointed out before the French are “unpredictable” and I do not think its over yet.
Mike - do you want to go for a big profit or make a safe gain?
What sort of punter are you - safe and steady or hold out for the bog one - sacrificing many little ones along the way?
This is what we need to know before offering the meister advice!
When does the monthly Yougov poll for the DT usually come out?
A poll in tomorrow’s Herald is mentioned here - alas by that firm that is not a member of the polling council - it has reversed the one that Labour was in the lead to SNP now in the lead.
http://www.theherald.co.uk/features/editorial/display.var.1355570.0.0.php
re 33. During the Tory leadership fight in October 2005 I had a big spread position on Cameron that I had bought at 9 in a market where 100 went to the winner. A really nice bet. However on the last weekend of the month there were widespread reports that the Mail on Sunday was going to turn Bullingdon Dave over for coaine usage. I chickened out of the bet and sold at 52. If I had not lost my nerve I would have been several thousand pounds richer.
Does that give you your answer? I like taking profits.
In this case, however, I’m still staying in because I do think that this is not the foregone conclusion that many are suggesting. My stake level is only £50 and at the latest level my profit would be £125. I’m going to wait and hope for the full £750.
One factor that I cannot assess is the impact of Sego’s stunning good looks. I find her anormously sttractive and I assume that others do as well. But how will this work out electorally?
It’s an obvious point but I’ll make it nevertheless. Any polls showing a neck-and-neck race are good for Sarkozy. The greatest danger to his victory is complacency (have you seen the numbers when people are asked: “who do you expect to win?”!!). I agree with most of the other posters here - Will L excepted - that she just can’t do it unless Sarkozy screws up.
3. I almost agree with and am impressed by Nick P’s assessment. This looks like an opportunity to collect now at 3/1 on the first part of the bet. Or else as Nick P correctly calculates let the bet ride at further odds of 4/1. The original 50 pound stake has been saved and there is a potential 150 pound profit. This is what now is being risked for a return of 750 pounds. So precisely as Nick P calculates 4/1 against.
Depends on Mike’s other positions. Given Bayrou’s statement today and the polls I feel Sarkozy is at least a 1/4 shot so I would bank the profit unless I had other bets on the event to balance.
At last - here are the figures for the poll in tomorrow’s Herald
http://www.theherald.co.uk/politics/news/display.var.1355636.0.0.php
Re 38: Its a no lose situation, profit taking at present does not result in a significant return and the momentum currently appears to be with Sego. If the next poll shows the gap narrowing again I suspect her odds will shorten rapidly. Does anybody Know when the next poll is due?
i personally cannot see anything other than a sarkozy win. the fact that bayrou has not come out for royal must help him too.
mike (36), i don’t think that you can equate cameron with royal. it was obvious from early on that cameron was the only game in town for the tory party, and i won handsomely on him myself. sego, for all her attractiveness, is not, as far as i can see, the answer to french worries about the direction their country is heading in.
i would also imagine that most le pen voters will go for sarkozy, giving him a decent no. of extra votes.i also cannot see the french electing a female president.
now is the time for strong leadership- sarkozy to win. take your profit and run!
38. But Nick P is incorrect in his view that Mike could cash in his bet and back Sego at bigger odds elsewhere now.
And Mike Smithson is incorrect to describe his bet as a “free” bet. It is now but Mike risked 500 pounds to get to this position which, happily, is now safe.
30, If that’s a reference to the programme on the 8th edition of The Almanac of British Politics, it was due to be recorded tomorrow, but Iain has postponed it until he’d had a chance to read some of the book (it’s 1100 pages, so it may be a few days …!)
I was on 18 Doughty Street in an hour’s programme on the counterfactual history Lib-Lab pact (in President Gore and other things that never happened, ed Duncan Brack)a couple of weeks ago, but I doubt anyone saw that one!
Not sure about France (win on Sego lose on Sarko) but notice my Betfair account has taken a major change for the better and my Labour leadership market gone all green as my 1.1 lay was taken (just in case of a bus).
Re 44, Icarus, sorry, has Charles Clarke got a PSV?
44.45. Icarus and Benedict. I gather Prince Monalulu has been taking bus driving lessons!
Re 46, StJohn, having you been helping out?
“Britain has the longest national tax code in the world after 10 years with Gordon Brown as Chancellor”
http://www.accountancyage.com/accountancyage/news/2188566/uk-longest-tax-code
Mike,
Quite why we, your readers are asked to give *you* advice I don’t want to imagine. Those without the benefit of a market-swaying blog should profit-take on Spreadfair asap and pause for the next big poll to buy Royal under 3.5 on Betfair. Sell her three days (maybe two) out from the election and invest your profits in a betting website.
Oh and buy Mike’s book - he is clearly a genius. Amazon is out of stock but Harriman House have stock and you get £3 off your next purchase!
Has anyone seen how pathetic,nay ridiculous the maths requirements of our university students compared to China’s?
See this and weep:
http://aconservatives.blogspot.com/2007/04/appalling-maths.html
…Quite obviously that should say buy Royal OVER 3.5 on Betfair.
Oh Dear…
The only thing that can help ségo win now are events, dear boy, events. And they seem to be piling up for Sarko, a strike, and a sit in ofartists on the unemployment office roof, which forced it to be closed to the public.
Also she has added some new benefits to her programme, which is all benefits already …
I don’t see how she can do it. She needs threequarters of the Bayrouists. At the moment she has less than half but many will vote Sarko and many will spoil their votes, so I don’t see her upping their numbers. Plus they are economic liberals and Ségolène is turning into an old style just giv’em more pocket money person.
I put it to you this way - Sarko is more likely, but I sense some momentum against him since Sunday. He’s lost both media cycles since, especially today, where Bayrou gave a pox on both houses type speech, but actually was much more personally damning of Sarkozy - called him dangerous to democracy, like Berlusconi. Also, the first UDF candidates have come out and backed Royal. Sarko then looked worse than Royal by refusing to debate Bayrou.
Now, keep in mind, I still think Sarko is the favorite. But I don’t think Royal’s position is as weak as some here think. I’d say her odds of winning are about 25% to 33%. Not bad, and you could make some money. Its definetly a risk, but it doesn’t sound like you stand to lose too much anyway.
30. and 43.
8th edition? Where is the 7th? I’ve got the 5th and 6th. I must have missed the 7th.
It is amusing to read the descriptions in the 5th edition of some of the constituencies which were won by Labour in 1997 with small majorities:
e.g. Sittingbourne & Sheppey
“could be described as a marginal only in the opposition’s wildest dreams”
e.g. Harwich
“will remain safely Conservative in all foreseeable circumstances”
e.g. Thanet South
“No-one could seriously conceive of Labour actually winning a Thanet seat, and South will remain safe for its notabel MP, Jonathan Aitken”
Re 54, JohnLooney *cough* it was an exceptional election!
(Must make amusing reading)
Fair Play to William Hill - they must have read this site and are now offering odds on number of seats won by each party in the Welsh Assembly elections
Labour Under (26.5) 8/11
Labour Over (26.5) 1/1
Conservatives Under (13.5) 5/6
Conservatives Over (13.5) 5/6
Plaid Cymru Under (12.5) 8/11
Plaid Cymru Over (12.5) 1/1
Liberal Democrats Under (7.5) 11/10
Liberal Democrats Over (7.5) 4/6
Similarly on the Scottish elections Hills are offering 5/6 on the over or unders at the following seat levels
SNP 42.5
Lab 40.5
LD 22.5
Con 15.5
Any insights as to where there may be value welcome…
Looks like William Hill are going to look after some of my money for a few days - I would put Labour at 24-25; Conservatives 13-14; Plaid 14-15; LDs 6-7
Labour Under & Plaid Over look good bets - Libs Under could be worthwhil, but leave the Conservatives alone
Mike, if you get a 13 bid in Cantor Spread hit it for me as well. I smacked the bids all the way down to 12.6
“One factor that I cannot assess is the impact of Sego’s stunning good looks. I find her anormously sttractive and I assume that others do as well.”
Oh, hello!
So much so, you mis-spelt the “enormously” and “attractive” parts - hehe!
The momentum has always been with Sarkozy. The French know it’s time for a change and that Sarkozy will deliver it.
And remember - he’s a far better debater and media performer than Royal. She may be pretty, but the French aren’t going to vote for that.
Cynical view, but is this not just a teensy-weensy bit of playing her up to shorten her odds on Betfair so some profit can be taken on a lay?
I would not rate Sego’s chances at all, were it not for Mike’s post a while back that no democracy, when first given the chance to do so, had failed to elect a woman leader.
Is it this hunch that’s persuading you to stay with the bet, Mike?
It will turn out like your U.S. 2004 predictions.
You are betting on what you want to happen.
There are no prizes for coming second Mike - if nothing else lay enough off to buy yourself a nice case of French wine to toast whoever eventually wins!
Avec 48% des intentions de vote, la candidate socialiste est en hausse de 1,5 point par rapport à une précédente enquête menée le 22 avril. Le candidat UMP perd de son côté 1,5 point.
>>
Latest CSA poll published tonight - continues recent trend of Royal up, Sarko down