Is Labour a certainty in Wales?
April 26th, 2007
Could there be a shock west of Offa’s Dyke as well?
While all the focus for the May 3rd elections has been on the possibility of an SNP win in Scotland is there a possibility that Labour’s position might not be as secure in Wales as the betting and the limited number of polls have suggested?
Certainly, unlike Scotland, the battle for the Welsh Assembly has failed to attract the interest of punters, as the above Betfair prices show, with barely £2,000 having been traded since the betting exchange opened its market three months ago.
The real problem is that there has been very little polling data about and what there is has showed Labour to be holding up remarkably well. A new survey is expected in the next couple of days which might give us a clearer idea.
Betting interest has probably been dampened by the one major voting intention poll that showed that Labour was only down 2% in the top-up list section on what it achieved in the totally different political environment of 2003 when the party was enjoying a 42% share in the national opinion polls.
Polling in Wales has a history of inaccuracy and I simply do not believe that the Labour vote in the Principality is immune from the massive decline that has taken place nationally.
I never let a UK election go by without putting some money on and I have risked a tenner betting against Labour. This seemed a much more interesting bet than putting the same sum on the party to win a maximum of 50 pence.
Mike Smithson
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Fair Play to William Hill - they must have read this site and are now offering odds on number of seats won by each party in the Welsh Assembly elections
Labour Under (26.5) 8/11
Labour Over (26.5) 1/1
Conservatives Under (13.5) 5/6
Conservatives Over (13.5) 5/6
Plaid Cymru Under (12.5) 8/11
Plaid Cymru Over (12.5) 1/1
Liberal Democrats Under (7.5) 11/10
Liberal Democrats Over (7.5) 4/6
What do “back” and “lay” mean?
Looks like William Hill are going to look after some of my money for a few days - I would put Labour at 24-25; Conservatives 13-14; Plaid 14-15; LDs 6-7
Labour Under & Plaid Over look good bets - Libs Under could be worthwhile, but leave the Conservatives alone.
MInd you, this could change dramatically over the next few days….
I reckon that one of the untold stories of this campaign will be the impact of the Independents in SWE region.
I expect Trish Law to hold Blaenau Gwent (despite being useless); Ron Davies is having a big impact in Caerffili - maybe enough to win himself, certainly enough to split the vote to let Plaid through - Similarly in Islwyn where the sitting Labour AM is utterly useless and is being challenged by s strong local councillor - another three way split with Plaid on the cards here but I can not tell who is going to push through. A lot of Independent votes in Merthyr as well, but not enough to cause an upset
And because of the way that they are all standing as a loose grouping of independents not as a party, they are also looking likely to win a list seat (from the LDs).
There could be between 2 & 5 Independents after May (including Marek) and I expect that they will then have to form some sort of formal grouping to replace Forward Wales (Wales Voice??)
2 - Invest in Mike’s book.
The new poll will be published today at either 1800 BST or 2300 BST on ITV1 Wales news or Wales Decides 2007. It’s embargoed until then so even if I did find out today what that poll was I couldn’t report it until then anyway.
The reason for the lack of polls is the cost. I asked NOP how much a Welsh poll would cost and they quoted me £7,500 (which means that for an election campaign of four weeks with two polls a week is £60,000 and that is clearly too steep for either ITV 1 Wales or BBC Wales).
My personal view is that we can call the following seats with some degree of certainity:
Conservatives: Monmouth, Cardiff North, Clwyd West, Aberconwy, Preseli Pembrokeshire
Labour:Aberavon, Alyn and Deeside, Bridgend, Caerphilly, Cardiff South and Penarth, Cardiff West, Clwyd South, Cynon Valley, Delyn, Gower, Islwyn, Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney, Neath, Newport East
Newport West, Ogmore, Pontypridd, Rhondda, Swansea East, Torfaen, Vale of Clwyd, Vale of Glamorgan
Liberal Democrats: Montgomeryshire, Brecon and Radnorshire, Cardiff Central
Plaid Cymru: Arfon, Dwyfor, Carmarthen East and Dinefwr, Llanelli
Independents: Blaenau Gwent,
If I was forced to call the others I would say:
Ceredigion: Lib Dem edge over Plaid (but it could be even smaller than 2005)
Carmarthen West: Plaid gain (but as we know from 2005, Independents in a Plaid target can complicate matters)
Swansea West: Lib Dem edge over Lab (by as little as 100)
Wrexham: Should be an Ind hold given Labour’s suggested downturn.
Ynys Môn: is really impossible to tell. Three way marginal, Con, Plaid, Ind in my opinion with any one of those three winning, if really pushed I would say Con by single figures.
Labour should hold Caerphilly and Cardiff South and Penarth, but they are not “certainties.”
BTW You seem to have missed one Newport Seat.
re 2 & 5. Thanks Icarus. My book “The Political Punter” which was published only last week can be obtained here.
http://www.harriman-house.com/pages/book.htm?BookCode=131104&ginPtrCode=&identifier=9e13992383897a443da93dc58546551f
Andrew Davies will hold Swansea West for Labour.
GOt a grottly little photocopied leaflet from Plaid through my letterbox - with a graph! Seems like they’ve got a few tips from the LibDems!
Oh, and Ron Davies is a joke - he will get nowhere near enough votes to win.
9 based on postings on this site we Tories put out a leaflet showing how the LibDems couldn’t win in our ward using a bar chart and the wording “It’s a two horse race” and “Only the Conservatives can win here”!
Ha ha
Would give a pound to see the looks on Lib Dem faces when they pick that up!
2: yes, buy the book, but briefly “back” means “bet that they’ll win” and “lay” means “bet that they’ll lose”.
One of the oddities of British politics is how llittle Westminster and the devolved bodies have to do with each other. I once met an MSP; I’ve never met an AM. You’d think that there’d be lots of meetings comparing experiences and discussing what works, but no. Accordingly I probably know less than most people on the site what the Welsh outlook is…
11 - well, what’s sauce for the goose…..
To be fair to Plaid, they actually used a pretty representative graph, showing the 1999 and the 2003 WA Election results, not just the last council results (which resulted in Labour being voted out of Swansea and the present rag-tag-and-bobtail coalition moving in).
O/T France 2 new polls
BVA sarkozy 53(+1) royal 47(-1)
Ipsos sarkozy 53 (-0.5) royal 47(+0.5)
So we have some consensus between the two most acurate pollsters of the first round.
I actually don’t understand royal’s second round strategy : all she gets the media talking about is the possibillity of talks with bayrou. But as he already said he would not serve as a minister under her and that he won’t call his voters to support her, i cannont see the point…
All the while, sarkozy, mechanically in the lead, just has to wait and repeat that the only second round debate French voters voted for was the one between him and Royal.
Royal does exactly what bayrou dreams of : let him stay in the news as if he was one of the second round candidates.
Oooh I wish I could see that WA poll! £60k isn’t that much for the BBC!
6 - if any bookies are offering odds on individual seats, a flutter on the Conservatives picking up either Delyn of Vale of Clwyd would be worth a punt.
So much of next Thursday is going to be decided by the level of Labour stay-at-homes in Wales, it is quite difficult to call.
Delyn, *or* Vale of Clywd, not “of”
16 - Yes Robin. If that Western Mail poll showing 64% “definate” turnout were to be correct, Labour would get a majority as much of the fall in support comes from Labour supporters saying they were much less likely to vote than others.
We shall just have to wait and see!
12 If you represented a Scottish or Welsh constituency you would have had plenty of contact with them. Maybe you should look at getting some devolved powers for Nottinghamshire so you could make some new friends!
6. Your projectsions look realistic for a GE but not WA - You are overestimating Conservative & LD gains - but lets wait a few more hours for the next poll….
One thing is for certain there will not be a 64% turnout in the Welsh assembly election.As for the results it looks as if with a week to go Labour still has to get out its core vote on the day. In many areas this is difficult because of the age profile of the local Labour organisation. In many ways it is has the feel of a council elcetion where most people are not that interested. Caerphilli and Islwyn are interesting because last time the local council was Plaid controlled and this had an effect on the 2003 result. There are local issues in the area such as possible school reorganisation which can be exploited by Labour’s opponents. Cuthbert in Caerphilly is a lack lustre candidate who was a former member of the militant tendency who has mutated into a new Labour robot and people should not under estimate the Ron Davies effect. He is a very effective campaigner on the doorstep. He might not win but he could split the Labour vote.
That mruk/Herald poll - that has been trailed for a couple of days now as “having Labour ahead” - was finally published this morning. For all you Tories and Lib Dems out there: it is not happy news for the minor parties I’m afraid! The big squeeze is on.
Sample size=1000
1st, FPTP vote
1. SNP 38 (+14%)
2. Lab 34 (-1%)
3. LD 13 (-2%)
4. Con 11 (-6%)
2nd, PR vote
1. SNP 37 (+16%)
2. Lab 36 (+7%)
3=. LD 11 (-1%)
3=. Con 11 (-5%)
5. Grns 3% (-4%)
“best First Minister”
1. Alex Salmond 25%
2. Jack McConnell 19%
3. Annabel Goldie 5%
4. Nicol Stephen 4%
http://www.theherald.co.uk/news/news/display.var.1355621.0.0.php
“… nearly six out of 10 told pollsters they are certain to vote” - this is yet another sign that turnout is going to be well up this year, which is almost certain to disproportionately damage the Tories and Lib Dems.
Nicol Stephen’s poor performance has been one of the most remarkable aspects of this campaign, for those of us who are reasonably well-informed about Scottish politics. I personally thought that they had made a good choice when Jim Wallace retired. But nope…
(Health Warning: mruk are not members of the British Polling Council. In everyday speech: there is no reliable evidence that they know their ar*e from their elbow when it comes to public opinion polling.)
22 Stuart, I believe the correct expression with regard to incompetent Scottish polls is that “they cannot tell their Erse from their Alba.”
welshgoat: “with a week to go Labour still has to get out its core vote on the day” - well, probably unwise to get them out a week ahead!
4. Penddu “And because of the way that they are all standing as a loose grouping of independents not as a party, they are also looking likely to win a list seat (from the LDs)”
which region are you referring to?
16 - Agreed on Vale of Clwyd. Labour vote looking rather soft up there (a lot of this was lost Cons voters from 1992 and 1997), and Conservative pledge base has been built significantly. Following a couple of good by-election results things are not looking too bad for them.
23. Augustus Carp
Very good…
Unfortunately though, I myself got a bit of egg on my face at the last UK general election. I spent a considerable amount of time and effort vigorously slandering the numerous polls by “Scottish Opinion” (not a BPC member) conducted on behalf of the Daily Record/Sunday Mail. I took great relish in my task of ridiculing them. But… after polling day itself, it did not take a genius to see that Scottish Opinion were more consistently closer to the actual result than any of the big boys (ICM, TNS System Three, YouGov etc.). Whoopsadaisy…
25 - says it on line 2 - SWE Region - South Wales East
28. ah, thanks. If you think they would take the list seat from LDs, I suppose you don’t rate Plaid chances to get through the middle in Islwyn and Caerphilly very high (otherwise the Indy would probably take Plaid list seat and not the LD one)
I do hope Trish Law gets a run for her money in my birthplace (Blaenau Gwent). However, seems like she’s pretty well stuck in there. However I am totally confident Labour will regain the seat at the next GE.
22″“… nearly six out of 10 told pollsters they are certain to vote” - “this is yet another sign that turnout is going to be well up this year, which is almost certain to disproportionately damage the Tories and Lib Dems.”
Stuart, do you really believe that we will have that kind of turnout?
I would also disagree with the assumption that a high turnout would disproportionately damage the Libdems or Conservatives. I just don’t think that Labour have done enough to galvanise and inspire many disillusioned and angry Labour voter’s to turnout for them.
23.
Re 27: Surely you mean eigg. Good thing it was nae Rhum.
32. Goupillon
I do love a good Small Isles jest…
You don’t have any Knoydart or Mallaig-related ones do you?
I hate to be a pedant (actually I love it), but that fine isle is no longer spelt “Rhum”, but “Rum”, or if you are really really pedantic, “Rùm”.
Re 33: Hmmm difficult - is that Mallaiga where all the retired builders go?
24. Representing a marginal seat Nick you don’t really understand the problem that Welsh Labour actually has with campaigning. In many areas they take the vote for granted as can be seen from Rhodri Morgan’s recent comment in the Guardian. For many party members canvassing means pushing a leaflet through the door and nothing else. To add to the problem the party is also old and lacks the foot soldiers . Most voters even in traditional Labour areas will not have any personal contact with a part rep. Jon Cruddas made the same comment when he talked of traditional Labour area which had gone to the BNP because no one had bothered to even canvas the voters for years. On a low turn out in an election which many don’t believe is important this spells potential disaster for the Labour party.
Using the Weber Shandwick/Scotland on Sunday seat predictor tool, today’s mruk/Herald poll would give the following seat distribution (total=129):
1. SNP 51 seats (+24)
2. Lab 50 (n/c)
3. LD 14 (-3)
4. Con 13 (-5)
5. Grn 1 (-6)
(SSP 0; -6)
(oth 0; -4)
http://www.scotlandvotes.com/
35 This was exactly the reason why Labour lost Islwyn and Rhondda in 1999 - we took the vote for granted.
I don’t think Labour are making the same mistakes again.
34.
Kno idea.
Mike, I think you have hit the nail on the head. So far it looks like a boring election from a betting point of view.
That said the Conservatives are making a come back and there is nothing like success to breed success. This election will see more Conservatives elected and then their membership grow.
OT, but John Major for London Mayor anyone?
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/matthew_parris/article1706337.ece
As Parris says, it seems so obvious really. Would never happen of course, but I think it’s the best Tory suggestion I’ve seen so far.
39 I am a knoydart I am not getting anywhere on this one.
36 - so SNP scooping up the discontented vote, but no real incursion into Labour. Has this all been huff and puff?
Is Labour to be largest party a good bet, as Greens and Conservatives likely to better than that poll, at the expense of SNP.
Mind you I know nothing of the detail of the Scottish election system
Re 41 Sorry 38 not 39
35. Good point Welsh Goat, I think that this is a problem confined to the Labour party and we see it in other parts of the country in constituencies not seen as marginal. I think that although we hear stories of reluctant householders trying to avoid or shift canvassers from their door we are also hearing complaints from in particular older voters who appreciate someone making the effort to woo them on the doorstep. It can sometimes be the difference between some voters actually turning up at the polling station and deciding where they put their vote.
Think it also has a lot to do with voter apathy and declining turnout especially as the focus has turned to those key marginals we are always told will swing the outcome.
44. Yes - damn marginals with their sodding floating voters!
42 John - “Is Labour to be largest party a good bet, as Greens and Conservatives likely to better than that poll, at the expense of SNP?”
You should have been listening a bit more carefully when we were all sat on the veranda at the NLC! Didn’t you hear what AW was saying?
42.The SNP will benefit from tactical voting, but think that this poll is showing too low a figure for both the Libdems or the Conservatives on the list vote and too high a turnout figure.
44.Oops, meant to say that I *don’t* think that this problem is confined to the Labour party!
42. John Wheatley
In my opinion it is a bit of a myth that Scottish Labour are doing appallingly badly at the moment. They are just doing a bit worse (or to be more sympathetic, a bit less well) than they did in 2003.
But there are several factors which are contributing to a likely good SNP performance, and a (perceived) disaster of historic proportions for the Scottish Labour Party:
- I cannot emphasise this enough: the real significant event next Thursday has nothing whatsoever to do with Holyrood! (… funnily enough …) It will be the utter collapse of the powerful local government base which Labour has had in Scotland for decades now (almost half a century in fact). It is that event which is about to alter the face of Scottish politics forever, because it is hard to overestimate the reach and strength of Labour’s tentacles in the very lifeblood of Scottish civic and commercial society.
- the collapse of the SSP (and I suspect the Greens and Inds/oths are going to look a bit glum come next Friday too)
- the big squeeze: voters now have to be pragmatic: do they really, really, really want FM McConnell for another mind-numbing 4 years? If the answer to that question is “NO”, then they have only one alternative, and it ain’t FM Goldie or FM Stephen.
- an amazingly stable and competent SNP performance over the last couple of years: the current SNP strength has not come from nowhere; they have well and truly earned it over a significant, sustained period of hard work and unity of purpose
I agree with John Wheatley that the Tories and Greens are not likely to perform quite as badly as mruk suggests, but it will not be a million miles away from the actual result. And a few more seats for the Cons/Grns is far more likely to come from the ruling Lib-Lab governing coalition than it is from the Scottish National Party.
47 ChrisD, I don’t think it will be just the SNP who benefit from tactical voting. Amongst the four main parties, there are six different permutations of pairs who are in first and second place in the FPTP constituencies. Getting established as the challenger will do a lot of candidates in second place a lot of good. There will be a lot of general all-purpose Anti Labour tactical voting, of course, and a lot of that may well go to the SNP, but there will also be some anti Lib Dem and anti Tory tactical voting as well. And in Gordon, how about Labour and Tory voters voting tactically against Alex Salmond?
6 Harry , that quote from NOP is way too high , ICM will do a national 1,000 survey results in 48 hours for £ 440 per question .
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Check out Vaughan Roderick’s EXCELLENT blog which has the inside track on the Welsh Elections AND BOOKIE’S ODDS !!!!!!!!
Although he is the Welsh Nick Robinson, he is their answer to Guido Fawkes [breaks gossip that upsets Peter Hain - YAY !] and PoliticalBetting.com as well !!!
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/cymraeg/index.html
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40 Genius. Please, please Major for Mayor. I beg you do it!
I like Paris’ final remark…
“Contradict me if you dare: no British prime minister in history has ever done anything seriously worthwhile or interesting after leaving Downing Street. How about being the first, John?”
Well, he didn’t do anything “seriously worthwhile or interesting” whilst he was in Downing street. So it would make a change.
Re Scotland
Stuart’s comments interesting, but as Brian Taylor of the BBC said the problem with opinion polls in Scotland is that they can’t take account of the actually constituencies which vary hugely in their tactical landscape.
So looking at the seat numbers at 36 if you ask yourself which Lib Dem and Con seats will go it becomes a problem. Why? Because if an SNP supporter was to suggest the LDs will loose Gordon and Tweedale Ettrick and Lauderdale to the SNP that is not consistent with the Tory and Labour vote dropping. Why? because you then have to accept Tories in those two seats voting SNP in very large numbers - which is unlikely.
Of course the regional numbers may be alot more accurate because there are fewer tactical considerations.
Personally as I have been canvassing I notice a large discontent with Labour, but no clear sense of where it is going. It could go to the party most likely to stop Labour locally or just stay at home. Only next week will tell.
Dubya Gets Down.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/mediaselector/check/player/nol/newsid_6590000/newsid_6594200?redirect=6594211.stm&news=1&nbram=1&bbram=1&bbwm=1&nbwm=1
46 Peter. I had so many conversations on that night (5 hours of political tittle tattle - I can’t remember the last time I had that), heaven knows what was said on the veranda.
52. I don’t understand Welsh Philip, can you give any examples of the sort of stories and issues he covers? Anything interesting about Peter Hain or just the aga-based hilarity we can already access in English…
54.
I disagree. It is commonly thought that the SNP and the Tories are so far apart in terms of their policy platform and whole philosophy that there is no way on earth that there could be much switching between them. But the actual electoral evidence is overwhelming: there is a vast corpus of SNP voters who have either voted Tory in the past, or who would be “natural Tories” if they lived in England.
So, there is zero logic in the contention that Tories in Gordon or the Broders will automatically vote tactically against the SNP; they are just as (or probably more) likely to vote tactically for the SNP, to kick the Liberal Democrats out! After all, if you vote Stephen, you will get McConnell. Not a hyper attractive concept for most Tories.
Re 36. Mine gives similar figures. Looks like a continuation of the Lab/LD coalition then.
Well that’s a tenner you’ll never see again Mike.
I think William Hill have actually got it pretty spot on. I don’t really see much value in any of their bets.
One thing which is close to a certainty is that the Conservatives will be the second largest party.
re 45. I presume you’re a convert to STV then, Red Flump
50.”And in Gordon, how about Labour and Tory voters voting tactically against Alex Salmond?”
I just don’t see that happening to be honest, Alex Salmond is a very popular and charismatic politician and this will sway the result. Some disillusioned Labour voters might vote Libdem, but I think that it is more likely that they will go straight to the SNP. As for Conservative voters, the ones I know that have never voted SNP in their lives are suddenly discovering that they have no problem if it will remove the present Lab/Libdem coalition in areas where the Conservatives don’t figure.
Labour have tried to turn this election into an unofficial referendum on independence but the voters are too savvy, they know that it is a separate issue which will have its own referendum (this is the voters “get out of jail” card if they vote SNP).
61. The trouble with proportional representation is that some small parties can stay in government in perpetuity (i.e. the LibDems) with only a small percentage of the vote.
But yes, there will come a day when we shall have to go PR for the GE as well.
22/36 - I think the seats calculations show just how rubbish this poll is - the idea that Labour will win 50 seats in Scotland is mince.
Getting ‘the squeeze’ on in a PR system is more difficult than under fptp and with two votes I’m sure many of those that want to defeat Labour will do so by voting for the best placed constiuency challenger and then their first choice on the list.
I would be very surprised indeed if the Lib Dems polled anyhting like 13% in the constituency section (although I could see their list vote being squeezed). As the vast majority of their seats are fptp - they are likely to pick up seats rather than lose them, even if their list vote goes down.
re 53. Not quite so, one of my first political memories was of Sir Alex Douglas-Home being Foreign Secretary in the Heath government.
I think it’s a great shame nowadays that ex-PMs do nothing useful except sit in the House of Lords and carp.
36. Chris A - “Looks like a continuation of the Lab/LD coalition then.”
Err… how do you get that?
50 Labour + 14 LD = 64 seats
In a 129 seat Parliament you need 65 to form a majority.
The Liberal Democrats are praying with all their might that Labour come out of this as the largest party. Unfortunately, it seems that the Almighty granted them one too many favours already in Scotland, in 2005. Their number is up…
I meant Chris’s comment at 59, not 36.
re 63 but that is far outweighed by the fact that there are no safe seats - you have to fight for every vote. Even in deepest Glasgow the Labour members would be fighting their colleagues as well as opponents for the first preference votes.
I might even be canvassed in such a system!
57. ‘Anything interesting about Peter Hain or just the aga-based hilarity we can already access in English’
Like this in today’s Telegraph Henry?
Game on for Hain
He’s got his hands full as Secretary of State for both Wales and Northern Ireland, but that hasn’t stopped Peter Hain starting a robust campaign to become deputy leader of the Labour Party.
And the ambitious 57-year-old is exhibiting diva-like qualities to match the status he seeks.
“He was campaigning for the Welsh Assembly election the other week and opted to stay at the Quay Hotel and Spa in Deganwy,” I’m told.
“It’s the first five-star hotel in North Wales and Peter was looking forward to spending the evening watching football on Sky - his beloved Chelsea were playing - but he was devastated to discover the match wouldn’t be shown in the hotel bedrooms.”
Eager to please, I hear that the hotel proprietor went way beyond the call of duty to give an uppity Hain what he wanted.
“The owner invited Peter round to his own house to watch the match with him and his wife,” adds my source. “One of the hotel chefs was even drafted in to help prepare his dinner.”
The man’s a fool.
re 66. Easy - convince a Tory to become presiding officer (or whatever they’re called up there) - I’d doubt that anyone from the SNP could be prevailed upon with those figures. Then when the inevitable tie happens you’ll have the presiding officer’s vote to count on.
6. Interesting that you have the Vale down as a Labour certainty. The seat until the 1990s was seen as a fairly safe Tory parliamentary seat. The Tories were disappointed that they didn’t win it in 2005 with a reasonable candidate. There are boundary changes which could also be significant with the Vale losing some Tory areas to Cardiff South and Penarth but gaining a strong Tory area with a good turnout record from Bridgend. The sitting Labour AM Jane Hutt was a disaster as health minister but is seen as a good constituency rep which might give her personal vote from normally non Labour supporters. The other complicating factor will be voter reaction to events in the local council which has seen the Tory minority administration replaced by a formal coalition bwetween Labour and Plaid.This seat could go to the wire with the result depending on how successful Labour is in turning out its traditional voters in Barry on the day.
65 “sit in the House of Lords and carp”
And what’s wrong with that?
(And by the way, it’s a Terrace, not a veranda!)
70.
Valid point.
How about Presiding Officer Tosh
(Murray Tosh MSP, a Tory, was one of the Depute POs in the last parliament.)
Only problem with that scenario is that it will become crystal clear to the electorate that the SNP are the only way to get rid of the combined ranks of Lab/Con/Lib Unionists. That would make 2011 a bit of a stunner!
Or The Mail has a sketch profile on Dan Norris MP today. ‘His current position is Parliamentary Private Secretary to that richly comic figure Peter Hain, Secretary of State for Northern Ireland. As such, Mr Norris floats round Westminster asking Labour MPs what they ‘think of Peter’. This may explain why Mr Norris so often wears an expression of thoughtful shock.’
I know you’re a Cruddas supporter Henry but who would you vote as your second preference? You tipped Alan Johnson in the past but I wasn’t sure if that was from a betting perspective or if you quite liked him politically? Do you know what is the best odds price on Alan winning?
62. ChrisD, Last month I read a piece about Gordon and they said a prominent (well, they said he was prominent, then I don’t know if he was) local businessman was openly calling for tactical vote to LD not to let Salmond in and they interviewed a couple of Con voters being willing to vote LD against Salmond.
70 and as Goldie is so determined to let Labour carry on in power in perpetuity this would make sense for her.
65 Chris A john Major was not in the Lords last time I looked. One of the other positive things about him I like. He has done a lot of quiet work for the two princes after their mother died for which he gained, in the wider establishment, a lot of kudos.
75.Andrea, this whole election might end up being a damp squid and normal service might resume for Labour in Scottish politics. But unlike previous elections over the last 20 years there really is a sense of anger against Labour, it might not be anywhere near the proportions that the Conservatives received by 97′ but it is there.
The Conservatives I know simple see a vote for the Libdems as a vote for Labour, if they are not going to vote SNP I think that they are more likely to vote Conservative than Libdem. In that area there are a few Conservatives and if there was a real move to transfer to the Libdems then I think that they could have found a lot more than two voters.
If the SNP are to make the big breakthrough and overtake Labour they have to get a big swing in the Labour heartlands.
76. kingbongo
I think that Ms Goldie’s carte blanche for Labour is going to have profound effects on modern Scottish politics. The way things are evolving, especially evident at local government level (and about to be much more evident), the combined Lab-Con-Lib Unionist cabal is going to become very, very obvious to ordinary voters in the street.
76.I heard about this latest smear on Goldie a couple of days ago, funny it has suddenly popped up after she has surprised many with such an excellent campaign so far!!
78.
Pedant alert! It is “damp squib”, not soggy calimari
74. Tim you can get 4/1 on Alan Johnson will http://www.willhill.com and I think that’s a good value bet at this stage. I won’t be voting for him, but I don’t feel particularly enthusiastic about any of the others either. Hadn’t given other preferences much thought to be honest. I think most people will wait and see who gets on the ballot paper first.
I seem to recall Peter Hain is a big Chelsea fan. He has a season’s hospitality box, coutesy of Sky. When I was reading your post I thought at first he was complaining that he couldn’t watch the TV in his hotel bathroom and not bedroom! Brought some horrific Alan Partridges scenes with a mirror to mind.
53 - I beg to differ. Major did far more good for the country than Blair/Brown ever did. No illegal wars during his watch, so far as I recall. And we got the National Lottery and the Cones Hotline. I think history is taking a far kinder view of his Premiership than the media did at the time in reflecting the growing “time for a change” mood.
79.Interesting comments considering that she is the only leader who has ruled out a coalition with any of the other parties. Don’t know why the SNP should complain, don’t they have carved in stone that they will not work with the Conservatives?
Will the SNP rule out any deals with any individual members of this so called “Lab-Con-Lib Unionist cabal”?
78. ChrisD - “If the SNP are to make the big breakthrough and overtake Labour they have to get a big swing in the Labour heartlands.”
I agree. And I think that that is exactly what is likely to happen! The SNP are definitely doing proportionately better in urban areas at the moment. The overall swings to the SNP are likely to be modest in most of the Highlands, South and NE (after all, the SNP base is already very big in many areas). But nearly all this significant movement to the SNP we are seeing in the polls is coming from the urban heartlands, which is where Labour are entrenched, and where, quite frankly, all Scottish elections are ultimately decided.
83 - this is a joke, right?
RE Annabel take a look at Cameron’s Auntie
72 Apologies, Augustus; my terminilogical exactitude not at its best before lunch.
And for those too sozzled to recall, the gist of the advice was back the SNP!
84. ChrisD - “Interesting comments considering that she is the only leader who has ruled out a coalition with any of the other parties.”
Mmmm… yes, indeed, it is a very innovative Tory campaign message: “Vote for us, because we do not want to implement a single one of our policies!” That is fine by us!
84 but Chris will she also ensure that if the maths are right Labour can be kicked out? It wouldn’t take a coalition with the SNP to do that, just a willingness to help ensure the largest party is allowed to govern.
She’s certainly having a good campaign and hopefully the tories will do well in the list seats.
Stuart Dickson, do you think there is a majority for independence in Scotland right now then? Seems there clearly isn’t.
86 Well putting up the man who got more votes in a GE than any other Prime Minister would clearly be crazy.
86: I bet if you did a poll today on “Who was the better PM - Blair or Major?”, then JM would win hands down.
90.Kingbongo, she has ruled out any coalition deals. The other problem for the SNP in that regard is that they have repeatedly said the tories are the one party “they” would not do business with.
29 - Too many permutations to do them all - if no other seats change then it would be the LDs who would lose out - but if Plaid won in Caerffili or Islwyn, then their list seat would be at risk, but then to Labour….
As I said, too many permutaions to do them all - lets wait a week or so and everything will become clear.
83,Whilst the beginning of the Northern Ireland peace process was a very positive step,under the Major premiership,my abiding memeory is of a governent punch drunk after Black Wednesday lurching from crisis to crisis,tearing itself apart over Masstricht,then the wider Europe question,sleaze,sexual imprpriety in the lives of ministers-I could go on,but many Tory posters on here concede the 1992-97 Major govt was nothing short of a calamity
94.Meant to add that this week I have sensed a softening of relations between the SNP and the Libdems. Will be interesting after the results are in to see who has been quietly chatting off camera.
75 - It was the Chairman of Mackies who was calling for tactical voting against Salmond. Not sure if he is prominent but they do make damn fine ice-cream.
78 - Chris, I think you’re right to identify a “1997 mood” among the electorate. I’m not sure about the extent and effect of tactical voting - I’m not sure there is an worked-through ‘anyone but labour’ mood yet. OT - Are you still having to regularly visit Inverness? The local party has abandoned brand consistency and, at the last count, we had three completely different looking sets of posters up in various locations…let’s just hope the other parties think it’s really a cunning plan…
79 - “the combined Lab-Con-Lib Unionist cabal” - steady now Stuart, have you been sniffing at the fumes of a Scotsman political story thread?
90 Every single Scottish poll inclding those from the reputable polling companies show the Conservatives are going to poll worse than in 2003 . How can you therefore say Ms Goldie is having a good campaign !!!!
A terrible poll for the SNP, but the consensus seems to be to ignore MRUK.
What about the FT analysis of the oil siutation though - surely at the heart of the debate?
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/b88e4ece-f393-11db-9845-000b5df10621.html
99.Mark, that is not just the assessment of conservative posters but also of political journalists in Scotland!!!
57 - A lot (but not all) of Vaughan’s blogs get translated here:
http://www.this-is-sparta.blogspot.com
101 - I repeat the question How can doing worse than in 2003 equate with having a good campaign ? What would be having a bad campaign - gaining seats ???
Re 96, Patrick, the thing is thsi government is lurching from crisis to crisis like a punch drunk and alcohol drunk boxer with wobbly legs.
98. StephenB, still spending a lot of time up in your neck of the woods. I am delighted to report that as of last week the Conservatives seem to have got the posters up and have been out leafleting the whole area, seem to have some enthusiastic local council candidates who are working hard in Strathspey and Badenoch.
99 - Mark, I think some of us weren’t sure how Ms Goldie was going to come over whereas she has actually come over a lot better than many might have expected.
I think that, as a personality, she has come over much better than, say, Nicol Stephen (who seems to have been constantly upstaged by his deputy ) but, indeed, the proof will be in the votes etc.
102 - This person would like a PLiad-Tory coalition. He must know that if Plaid EVER went into government with the Tories, they would be tainted forever with the Tory stain? They could wave their ‘valleys breakthrough’ goodbye for 25 years! That’s why they’ve semi ruled it out! Many nationalists would be disgusted at having Tories in the government.
99 It’s easy Mark, I just adopt your tactic of stating that everything is going my way and the surge is about to happen.
In addition a good campaign doesn’t mean people will vote for you - it is a necessary condition but not a sufficient one; as I’m sure you’re aware.
96 et al. Yes, but the Tories’ secret weapon is that they always appear to be so much better in hindsight.
Stuart Dickson: Does the phrase “scratched record” mean anything to you?
The 1992-1997 period was certainly a political shambles, but economically, an extremely good time.
104 I concede many difficulties have befallen this govt in the last 12 months-but to my mind,they are c. at the 1989 stage if you draw parallels with the previous govt-in other words normal mid-term blues by history of British politics over the last 40-50 years
108 I’m sorry kingbongo but if the LibDems end up with fewer seats in Scotland they will have had a bad campaign , if they gain seats they will have had a good one . That is the raison d’etre of election campaigns and the same applies to Ms Goldie .
111,I concede post Black Wednesday economic good times slowly returned-the irony being that Chancellor Clarke seemed in a way to practice Keynesian economic techniques - a total about-turn from monetarism as prescribed in 1979:wink:
111,I concede post Black Wednesday economic good times slowly returned-the irony being that Chancellor Clarke seemed in a way to practice Keynesian economic techniques - a total about-turn from monetarism as prescribed in 1979:wink:
Sorry about double-post!!
103.”101 - I repeat the question How can doing worse than in 2003 equate with having a good campaign ? What would be having a bad campaign - gaining seats ???”
Mark, unless you know the outcome of the elections already how about waiting for the actual result to come in before you ask that question.
I repeat that turnout and tactical voting will decide this election, maybe the polls are right but they have been wrong before in Scotland and often underestimate the Conservative vote. It has also been mentioned that the excellent campaign being run by Annabel Goldie does not seem to be reflected in the polls.
113 no, that’s just not true. If Labour lose 1000 seats next week that would be a bad campaign, if they lose 100 that would be a good campaign.
as ever you are being deliberately thick in some wierd effort to prove a point. As I said, a necessary but not sufficient condition of doing well in elections is a good campaign. To have a good result you need to improve your number of seats; this is different from the campaign itself.
117 Fair enough ChrisD , I will ask the same question when the results are known .
A poll in the mail today by scottish opinion shows the snp ahead by 2 pts down from 6 pts a month ago.
I have been out in West Lothian and the nats are up a little bit will not take Livingston and the info i have is they will not take Linlithgow.
They need these seats to be in control.
There seems to be a trend on the doors of people not wanting the SNP and voting Labour even though they are not happy with them.
Also a number of Tory voters here in seats where the snp are second are voting labour to “save the union” do not underestimate this type of view up here with some sections they will vote for whoever to stop the SNP.
Don’t get me wrong the Labour vote is down but not that much and there are a hell of a lot of people still to decide (40%) and it looks like it could be 92 all over again this time with Labour winning.
Put your money on Labour to have more seats while the odds are good.
Mark @ 51: It’s because it’s a quote for a bespoke survey. The ICM price is per question on an Omnibus, but as far as I’m aware no one does a Welsh Omnibus so the BBC would have to commission a bespoke survey for just their questions.
118 Yes obviously you must take into account whether it is a government or opposition party gaining or losing seats but as ever you are being deliberately disingenuous in trying to say that the Conservatives will have had a good campaign in Scotland although they have lost seats from a very low base in 2003 .
With all this Scottish talk it’s a wonder we haven’t had one of Will L’s exclusives yet telling us that Labour would sweep the board with a 100 seat majority.
122 “The operation was a success, but the patient died!”
123 Chris - using your model, its hard to see how Labour get less than 40 seats in Scotland absent a collapse in the constituency vote in Glasgow/Lanarkshire etc. Is the 40.5 over therefore a good bet ?
Did they predict fewer seats for the Tories in 2003 … and then what happened? I don’t think we’ll lose seats.
Pool Hazel Blears. According to New Statesman’s Kevin Maguire, her ‘Nuts about Hazel’ campaign t-shirts have been found to have been produced in a non-union sweatshop in Bangladesh. There goes the trade unionist vote.
124 ROFLMAO
121 - Thanks for that clarification Anthony . though if ICM says answers within 48 hours ( 24 for a 500 sample ) does that mean they are conducting an Omnibus survey every day ? I find that unlikely .
122 now you get the idea, you see I knew you weren’t stupid :- as for me claiming things; my only knowledge of the Scottish campaigns is from here and the Scottish papers. Everything I have read says Goldie is running a good campaign but it isn’t reflected in the polls.
124 ….because he contracted MRSA. Sometimes you know the correlation between two events can be less than 1.
My wife and I are normally Conservative voters in Scotland, but we will both be voting SNP in the Holyrood election. The idea of Labour getting a hammering in Scotland is irresistible, but it is not a matter of tactical voting for us, and the Conservatives should have a good chance in our area. We have been impressed by Alex Salmond and Nicola Sturgeon, and with the SNP’s approach over the past few years. We are also blazing angry at the Labour suggestion that Scotland cannot exist without England. I also believe that an independent Scotland would be forced to ditch its socialist/statist mindset, and follow the low-tax, pro-enterprise approach of Ireland and the Baltic States, and that many in the Scottish diaspora would return. One downside is that G. Brown might come back …
129 - “Sometimes you know the correlation between two events can be less than 1″
And sometimes 2 things that are correlated are not dependant on each other. Correlation between TV ownership per household and life expectancy is very high (approx 0.9 I believe). Does this mean we should be shipping boatloads of TV’s to the third world?
122.”you are being deliberately disingenuous in trying to say that the Conservatives will have had a good campaign in Scotland although they have lost seats from a very low base in 2003.” Mark, I think that it is you that is being disingenuous, the rest of us were commenting on the fact that Annabel Goldie was personally having a good campaign regardless of the election outcome.
Nicol Stephen has been appalling so far, but I would not bet on that resulting in the Libdems necessarily losing seats!
120. fred2
Fred, you haven’t got a link to that Daily Mail poll have you? (I fear not, because for some odd reason the Mail almost never puts the content of its Scottish edition online.)
So, in the absence of a link, could you please provide us with the juicy details from the dead-tree version: sample size; dates; 1st vote; 2nd vote; any other details they have published. Many thanks in advance.
121 Beaufort do a Welsh Omnibus Poll - it is the one that Plaid have been using for their private polling.
107 Redflump - I totally agree - It is only the Gwynedd wing of Plaid who could consider the Tories as partners - But it would destroy Plaid in the Valleys.
Still, it looks like Labour’s ‘Vote Plaid Get Conservative’ ploy is in tatters…….
128: Why? Market research is a big business - a daily Omnibus is very likely indeed.
O/t and regarding labour leadership.
I’ve been leaving a few pounds on Reid in case he decided to run and I could trade out later. That opportunity looks like it may have gone.
http://politics.guardian.co.uk/terrorism/story/0,,2065627,00.html
Is there ANY remaining chance that Clarke will go for it?
134 Yes but not a daily one according to their website it is only 4 per year .
136 I will bow to your specialist knowledge , Anthony .
113
‘I’m sorry kingbongo but if the LibDems end up with fewer seats in Scotland they will have had a bad campaign , if they gain seats they will have had a good one . That is the raison d’etre of election campaigns and the same applies to Ms Goldie .’
Mark,I agree with you,however it seems that some of your fellow Lib Dems don’t, see point 3 below,apparently the electorate are too stupid to understand what gains and losses are!
‘My guess is that the big factors in how the results are understood by the public are going to be
1. what happens in Wales and Scotland
2. share of the vote (available at a fairly early stage)
3 (last and least) gains and losses: no one understand what it means, and it won’t be finalised until late in the day.
by Peter Pigeon April 25th, 2007 at 12:28 pm
131 indeed, but I was getting bored of explaining the basics of statisitcs to someone who knows it already. I do like the idea of shipping TVs to the third world to make them richer; it sounds like something straight out of Sego’s economic policy documents
137. James F. I’ve done the same. If you have Brown as your banker then I think it is sensible to cover the “unlikely but possible” contenders. I will keep my Reid position for insurance. Doubt he will run but if he declared it would be too late to get a fancy price.
139 Well John , It is good that there is at least 1 Conservative who agrees with me .
JK, It is far from certain that an independent Scotland would ditch its socialist mindset. An independent Eire pursued policies that were, in various ways, economically disastrous for nearly 70 years after independence, and if that’s what Scottish voters want, so will an independent Scotland.
An independent Scotland which pursues the right policies is certainly economically viable. An independent Scotland which pursued the wrong policies would be in a much worse state than now, and see a real brain drain.
Personally, I think it most unlikely that the government of an independent Scotland would slash public spending as a % of national income, in the way the Irish have.
78.”In that area there are a few Conservatives and if there was a real move to transfer to the Libdems then I think that they could have found a lot more than two voters.”
erm, Chris, sorry but are you really suggesting that they should have quoted all people they could have found? The whole paper would be just devoted to it. You can dismiss it as a straw poll (or because they can decide to quote whoever they prefer to fit their piece), but asking to quote all potential switchers makes little sense.
As someone who lives in Wales I can’t say the campaign here has caught the imagination. I’ve certainly absorbed more coverage of the Scottish ones!
This 60%+ turnout looks ridiculous. I can’t believe it for a minute. If Labour are spread at 26.5, that looks high as they are bound to have leaked a bit in the last 4 years.
However, I’m only guessing here, but i think Rhodri Morgan may have been more successful than the Scots at keeping Westminster issues at bay. He was always a New Labour outsider and that will count more than ever now and don’t underestimate his man of the people act. Remember aswell Lembit’s little difficulty (he’s not an AM, but is the Liberal’s Welsh Leader!) and that the election geography favours Labour, then Mr Brown might not face too much of an embarassment here.
144. Andrea, I know that Labour are trying to turn this election into a referendum on independence, but I don’t get any feeling that this has been successful. I also don’t think that many Conservatives would vote to keep the current administration in power.
142 it just supports the hypothesis that logical fallacy knows no party boundary!
146. Chris, I think you’re confusing what Con voters would do in any other normal seats with what they could do in Gordon in particular. I’m not so sure that Tories wouldn’t mind to create a little embarassment also to Alex Salmond. That doesn’t mean that they wouldn’t vote SNP in another seat to oust Labour.
I’m just guessing anyway.
Anyway, tonight guests on Question Time:
Caroline Flint
Lord Hurd
David Laws
Adam Price
Douglas Murray
Question:
will there be exit polls for Scotland and Wales on election night?
141. stjohn - from other comments you’ve made I suspect we’ve been playing a similar game all along. But I’m now starting to think it’s time to maximise takings and to lay everyone apart from Brown to the limited extent that my account can bear.
2 new backers for Hazel4Deputy: Paddy Tipping (Sherwood) and Stephen Ladyman (South Thanet)
98 - Stephen it’s probably as well to note that Maitland Mackie was a Lib Dem candidate for Banff and Buchan. Lib Dem urges voters to vote Lib Dem isn’t much of an endorsement.
I very much doubt that the Tories will poll 11% and the Lib Dems only 13%. This is fairly obvious to anyone actively involved in the campaign.
I received a huge number of leaflets this morning. Including one for the SNP for their candidate in Edinburgh Central, Edinburgh West and Edinburgh North and Leith. Also one of those awful magazine typ