YouGov polls: Thread 1 “the decline of Brown”
April 27th, 2007
Labour’s wannabee leader continues to trail the Bullingdon boy
Two threads this morning both from new YouGov polls in the Daily Telegraph. The first coverered in the previous story shows a sensational rise in support for the Greens ahead of next week’s election for the Edinburgh parliament.
The second, which is the papers main lead, is from the main April survey by YouGov. The focus is on Gordon’s position in relation to Cameron in the forced choice question of whether, if people had to choose, they would go for a Brown led Labour government or a Cameron-led Tory one. The graphic above reproduced from the paper shows the results.
This is, of course, a phoney question because it ignores the Lib Dems and other possibilities. But the fact that YouGov have been asking it in this form for so long gives us a real chance to observe trends - which don’t look good for Gordon and Labour.
The main general election voting intention has some good news for Blair’s party - a significant cut in the Tory lead. The headline figures are with changes on the last survey by the pollster - CON 37% (-2): LAB 32% (+1): LD 18% (+2): OTH 14% (+1).
Although their numbers are different - the trend of a decline in Tory support and an increase in the Lib Dem position - are the same as that found by ICM on Wednesday.
What’s extraordinary is that even with the Tory lead being slashed back the Brown-Cameron position continues to get worse for the chancellor. Still we have to assume that Labour MPs know what they are doing.
In the Labour leadership betting Gordon is now at 0.11/1. In the general election “most seats” betting the Tory price continues to tighten.
Mike Smithson
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That the Telegraph should choose to show a poll where the Tories are down two points on last month and on the forced Brown-Cameron question the result is exactly the same as ‘a great Tory victory” tells you all you need to know about the Telegraph. But it’s surprising that such an august organ as this should choose to follow it! Happily PPB.Com wont shed readers at the rate the Telegraph are doing.
“More bad news for Cameron” might have hit the mark but perhaps I’m biased!!
Just wait until it comes out that Brown is Scottish and has no business in England.
re 1. Roger very often it is way that polls are reported rather than the numbers themselves that often have the most impact on the betting. I now try to reflect this much more on the site and the angle on Brown is that which the Telegraph splashes this morning.
People read headlines and look at big graphics - they don’t look too much at the detail.
I am no Brownite, but I suggest that over the next 4-6 weeks the polls will start showing a considerable boost for Labour regardless of leadership etc.
This is because people, especially after the elections, will wake up to the danger that they might be sleepwalking into a Tory ruled Britain and will react against such a distatsteful prospect.
Get ready to make or lose money on seat predictions shortly
I agree with Mike - but reporting of polls comes in two forms (at least). The initial headline feeds headlines, the considered figures feed commentary.
So this torygraph headline will hit a lot of readers. But Peter Riddell and Andrew Rawnsley will be thinking “that is the third poll in a row to show the tories slipping a bit”…
And it is the third isn’t it? CR, ICM and now YouGov?
In keeping with the understated mood….. how to explain Cameron’s collapse?
It’s difficult to put your finger on. Too many soundbites…no policies…..looks lightweight? Probably but also a sense that he’s not the ‘real thing’. Webcams and windmills looked interesting at first and were fine attention grabbers. Maybe something interesting had hit the Tory Party? But a year later our attention is drifting. It’s not over for him but when the spotlight was on he needed to show there was something there.
re 5. No it’s the second poll which has picked up the Tory decline. Communicate Research reported a 1% increase in the Tory share and a 5% increase in the Labour deficit. CR did, however, find a 2% increase for the Lib Dems in line with all that have reported this week.
My guess is that next Thursday is going to be good for Ming.
re 6. If you attach credence to the Tory figures why do you not also give a similar importance to the Brown figures?
I think that the Bullingdon boy, as I know call him, might have gone off the boil but Gordon’s position is something that supporters like you are in a massive state of denial about. There is simply no good news. The public really do not like him and won’t vote for him.
The big question, if he doesn’t improve Labour’s ratings, will be whether he can survive as leader. Last September he showed the ruthlessness to push Tony out - maybe that has set a precedent for those who might want to do the same to him?
A|t last - some reasonable poll news for Labour! As an ardent Brown supporter I must say that the polls don’t look good. However I honestly believe (and shoot me down if you want to!) that Gordon has what it takes to regain our support in the country. I know the polls say different at the moment, but I have the faith brothers and sisters. I have the faith!!!
Oh, and slightly O/T. Following on from that grotty photocopied Plaid sheet I had yesterday (Swansea West), I received a “Focus” LibDem rag with (and you won’t believe it!) “Only LibDems can win here!!!” headline (Lab 42% v LD 27%). Looks like the opposition may cancell each other out! Still no more posters seen. Only Lab and LDs. No Plaid or Tory in sight.
8. Mike, if you’re going to call him Bullingdon boy from now on, it will appear (and indeed will be) an overt political bias. As a Lib Dem, that’s fair enough, but as editor of the site?
6. Roger, Cameron’s figures haven’t collapsed and it’s not ‘more bad news’. It’s literally a not very good poll - not very good, but still more than OK. The Conservative lead is still 5%; how many times have we been there in the last fifteen years? It might be a statistical blip, it might not - Cameron’s last month hasn’t been the best of his leadership - but in totality, it’s not a bad poll. In any case, either way, there’s a more important test in a week’s time that will be remembered when this poll has been long forgotton.
While the forced choice question is perhaps slightly false, it does give an important pointer to future tactical voting considerations in Lab-Con seats. One of the main factors behind the size of the Labour victories in 1997 and 2001 was the willingness of voters to line up behind the party best placed to beat the Tories; the Cameron-Brown preference question is legitimate and meaningful in that context should be factored into the seats markets.
9 - Red Flump - is your blindfold secure yet?
To go on the headline figures for a moment. I don’t understand the triple showing at 37%. There is no use being wilfully blind to pollsters and we must all be fair. But I am not seeing it on the doorsteps. I can’t think of a rational explanation and I still believe that the locals will be excellent for the Tories.
It is just a mystery to me as on the ground it does not appear our position is at all eroded.
I will be very surprised if we don’t hit 40% in the locals and I predict (notional national) 42%.
Re headlines This is the only poll out of the last three to get on the radio (5Live)headlines and Sky news and BBC telly newspaper slot. All said bad news for Brown, and nothing else. It is rather astonishing that what pb.c Cons find slightly worrying is being portrayed to the public at large as another hammer blow to Labour.
If Cameron’s poll ratings slip when he is out of the media spotlight, conversely surely it bodes well for him during an election campaign when he is on TV everyday.
If I were GB I’d keep the elction campaign short in 2009
Mike Smithson
I am glad you are connecting Cameron closely to the Bullingdon Club- I was posting about Cameron’s Bullingdon connections last year, well before the exposure in the press. Bullingdon for me symbolises the obnoxious arrogance and entrenched snobbery of the established elite- a crowd to which, sadly, Cameron is all too familiar. And I have it on very good authority that people like Liam Fox and David Davis (who really do not like each other) utterly despise Cameron, his group of crones, and their arrogant grip on the Tory party. I do not think the shadow cabinet in the Tory party is a happy place at present.
As to your comments on Brown Mike- I think that your comments are extremely astute. Labour has a thirst and liking for power, much like the Tories throughout their history (the 1990’s being the exception when embracing ideology nearly finished them). Labour are no longer binded by ideology, but by enjoying the prestige of government. So- if in a years time if it is clear that Brown is not going to deliver another term, he will be jettisoned by the men in red suits. They have three years left, plenty of time, and at their core New Labour are a ruthless electioneering machine. So well done Mike for picking this now. Brown is certainly not Labour’s only and last hope- they still have a number of options in reserve, naturally Miliband, but there will be others.
O/T France - Daily Ipsos poll stable
sarkozy 53 / royal 47 (=)
The pseudo-debate between Bayrou and Royal is (again) cancelled so they accused (again) sarkozy of being responsible…
I still don’t understand why royal loses her campaigning time with such useless tragi-comedy… She lost one week of campaign (out of 2) talking about tactics and complaining about the media and the polls (as always) stil give sarkozy the lead…
I think the point about “Bullingdon Boy” in the headlines is that Mike does not say “Labour’s Nose Picker in Chief trails the Bullingdon Boy”
Even-handedness is one of the features of this site. Can we call Brown the Nose Picker and Ming the Skeleton in the headlines? If not could we revert to “David Cameron”?
Mike at 8. Cameron is in place Gordon isn’t. No-one knows what Gordon will be like least of all me. I hope and expect him to be good but it’s just hypothetical. Anyone who tells a pollster otherwise is clairvoyant. Who could say what effect Cameron would have had on the Tory Party before he became leader? I thought Major would be hopeless and he was. But I also didn’t anticipate him being popular pre-’92 though we all knew him as a Chancellor and Foreign Secretary
David at 10. Cameron’s figures are just 3 points better than Michael Howard on three consecutive polls. Against a leaderless Labour Party in total disarray It must be a great disappointment.
Just as this poll is not bad enough to worry the Cons (next Thursday far more important) this is also not bad enough for Lab to panic and ditch Brown. He’ll get his chance now bar act of god.
15 et al - Was DC in the Bullingdon Club last night ??
Roger, Brown has been guardian on domestic policy for a decade. Hardly new on the scene is it.
Next week, we get a real opinion poll to talk about. Calling a 2 percent drop in a couple of polls a collapse is straw clutching in the extreme.
Test. Ming can’t help his skeletal look. He had cancer and this can affect weight. Brown scratched his nose. Are there any politicians who haven’t? The Bullington club was a choice made by Cameron as was his membership of the men’s only club Whites. If you can’t judge a leader on the decisions he makes then what have got?
19. That is so. Every Tory activist I know is too busy right now to be thinking about polls, because we have a real election. A poll could come out and show us at 25% and we would dismiss it and reserve judgement until the locals. Because we are all seeing strong canvass returns and a real anti-Labour mood, and are content to be judged by the actual results in a week.
As to Brown, give him this as a politician - he has eliminated all the opposition. If there were a credible challenger he’d be out. There is not. The PLP are too afraid of rocking the boat and causing infighting that will worsen their position. They want a Hail to the Chief coronation and will all desperately pretend to love him in the hope of a honeymoon period.
It takes a real genius to assert that Lab being a leaderless shambles is a point in their favour and a sign of future success. In the old days of television we used to watch a pot being spun on a wheel during intermissions. Watching Roger is just as fascinating.
20- yes Jamie- the sectretive, elitist Bullingdon society chooses its elitist members carefully, selectively and secretely. People cannot apply, and are chosen on one criteria alone- are they a real, bonafide member of the true blue elite who should be running this country? And you are a member for life- so yes Cameron was a member last night, he will be a member tomorrow and he will be a member until the day he dies.
“What’s extraordinary is that even with the Tory lead being slashed back the Brown-Cameron position continues to get worse for the chancellor”
It’s no change compared to last month (actually +1 for both).
In Septembet it was a 9% lead (but the mainline figures were better for Labour in general: a 5% lead)
In January it was a 8% lead.
22. Roger, Brown did not “scratch” his nose. He picked it. It’s on YouTube. Ming is old, too old to lead his party, and it shows in his lack of freshness. Cameron’s choice to join the Bullingdon Club was made back when he was at university. Papers recently published show that at the same time, Gordon Brown was writing papers about helping people to cheat on benefits and steal things. Do you want that choice to be hung round his neck? The Edinburgh Thief and Liar? I don’t hold his student radicalism against him, no more should anyone halfway fair crucify Cameron for silly things done at college.
As a University fundraiser Mike S knows students and I’m surprised he’s not a bit more liberal about this. If you can’t mess up at uni where can you mess up?
27 - anyone can fiddle benefits, thieve and pick their nose - but you have to be of a certain sort to be a Bully Boy
Not a very interesting thread today, full of tiresome people trotting out their tiresome prejudices. Perhaps we should just suspend the site until after the local elections.
Roger should get a job spinning for GB when he takes over. He’d be very good at it, even if to more sophisticated readers on here, he looks simply desperate, deluded, or both.
In fact, so blind is he to reality that I think Roger might actually be Gordon Brown.
I think we should be told.
7 Mike - thanks. It was the 36% figure that stuck in my mind as (a bit) disappointing for the Tories.
Personally I think the Tories will do quite well next week, but that Labour won’t do quite as badly as people have thought. I wouldn’t take any of these polls too seriously individually. Averaging them out only makes them a little more convincing.
8 “I think that the Bullingdon boy, as I know call him, might have gone off the boil but Gordon’s position is something that supporters like you are in a massive state of denial about. There is simply no good news. The public really do not like him and won’t vote for him.”
I have thoght all things about Brwon now: first that Blair had something few politicians have and Labour would miss him; then that Blair was too far gone and that Labour could only recover under Brown. Most recently, I thought he handled the budget badly.
I now think that they will get a small bounce. Rik may have some fun - I can imagine a few Blairites walking out (Mandelson, Adonis) and a few Labour exiles returning. Overall I don’t think it is going to have that great an effect (although he will get more credit for (eg) a withdrawal from Iraq than Blair would).
I would love it if Andrew Adonis took the Tory whip.
Do people who join a club in their twenties devoted to trashing restaurants and then getting their wealthy parents to shower money on the hapless proprietors really change their nature so much in the next seventeen years?
It’s possible but if we have to have nuclear weapons and we have the choice of not giving the button to such a person then I think we’re better to play safe!
Mike, why do you feel referring to ‘The Bullingdon Boy’ is a good idea? The site has a reputation for being objective and a good place to find detailed information. You are not Guido!
Personally I think if you are going to start using derogatory nicknames for Cameron you should adopt RedFlump’s ‘red faced ninny’. I look forward to the Goblin King headlines about Gordon.
29 - but, now thanks to you, it’s a bubbling effervescence of a thread
27 Test
You could give Cameron a wide bearth from his elitist university days- but the guy is still buried in his neck with his old school tie and elitist chums and crones. Rather than renouncing elitsim, he has embraced it even more through his eton (some Bullingdon) inner cabal who are effectively controlling the Tory party, much to the distaste of people like Fox and Davis. Depressing but true- Cameron is as much now a Bullingdon elitist as he was as a student. Mike is quite right to call him “Bullingdon Dave”, as he was right to refer to Brown as the “dour one”.
32. “I would love it if Andrew Adonis took the Tory whip”
Me too.
29. Scallywag. Why don’t you start your own site and then you can suspend it?
34-Mike, why do you feel referring to ‘The Bullingdon Boy’ is a good idea?
kingbongo- please, please- I don’t remember anyone crticising Mike Smithson for constantly referring to Brown as “the Dour one”
We all know Mike is a LD activist- his political allegiances are all too clear
Tyson and Roger,
Would either of you like to address my point about the pamphlets Brown published at university advising students how to steal and to cheat the benefits system?
Did Brown really change his nature so much in the intervening years Roger? Yes or no?
A thought-through choice that he took time to think up, write in an essay, and disseminate.
Cameron has promoted people from all walks of life and to his Shadow Cabinet. In the Tory party we don’t crucify people because of the school they went to. When Blair (old school tie) was elected against Major (state school boy) I didn’t hear you lot complaining. Perhaps Bair should have failed to promote Gordon, the privileged son of the Manse?
Class warfare. It’s forever 1974 for you lot, isn’t it. Blair put lipstick on the socialist pig but underneath the party is the same as it ever was. Which is why you’ll lose, as “he’s a toff” is a charge the public doesn’t give a monkey’s about.
36. Or how about Tony Blair as the CND supporting one ?
33 - Roger/Gordon (delete as appropriate) - do you have any evidence of Cameron “trashing restaurants in his twenties”? Intrigued that this hasn’t been reported elsewhere if it’s true…
Or is he just guilty by association?
Generally agree with the posts suggesting we don’t adopt derisive nicknames for each other’s leaders - doesn’t help the dialogue on the site.
The Telegraph’s spin is pretty silly - an accurate headline would be ‘Tories mildly off the boil’. I think that’s really the whole story - there hasn’t been much about the Tories in the press lately, and what there was has been either slightly negative (London Mayor) or neutral (not very successful censure motions, amiably vapid interviews about people being nicer to each other). Accordingly they’ve drifted a bit. Nothing dramatic. Brown’s position is unchanged over the previous month, but it’ll be interesting to see what happens in the ‘best PM question’ to the 25% who currently choose TB, when he is no longer an option.
6 & 18
Roger, have you dropped some acid to-day or just picked up some tips during one of your Middle East trips on how to interpret events from the former Iraq information minister?
34. Kingbongo - I shall have to copyright “red faced ninny”. Royalties please!
Seriously, we are in a state of extreme flux at the moment (both us in the Labour party and politics in general). Who knows how the chips may fall?
39-Test-
Class warfare is alive and well and burning merrily in the Tory shadow cabinet. As I said before Fox and Davis despise Cameron and his eton cabal. The Tory party shift to meritocracy with the rise of Heath, Thatcher, Clarke, Patten, Fox, Hague- grammar school, then Major, no school, is over. Eton and elitism is back, which is bloody depressing.
33. Blair supported CND and EC withdrawal didn’t he in 1983. (as did Brown). Does the words barrel bottom clutchs and straws mean anything to you Roger?
“This is because people, especially after the elections, will wake up to the danger that they might be sleepwalking into a Tory ruled Britain and will react against such a distatsteful prospect.”
“In keeping with the understated mood….. how to explain Cameron’s collapse?”
Rubbish.
“So- if in a years time if it is clear that Brown is not going to deliver another term, he will be jettisoned by the men in red suits.”
Even more rubbish. Labour will do no such thing. They have neither the mechanism, the stomach, the balls, the good-sense, the ruthlessness, or the foresight to jettison a failing leader. They’ve NEVER done it before, to my knowledge. They will sleepwalk with Brown until he loses the next election… and maybe beyond.
“Bullingdon for me symbolises the obnoxious arrogance and entrenched snobbery of the established elite”
*Yawn* (no-one cares..)
Nothing moves Labour voters more than class, does it? People care about Camerons lack of policies and clear principles. They don’t care about class. Let me repeat. THEY DON’T CARE about class.
And I love the way Lib/Labs get all excited because the polls show a ‘little’ movement in their favour.
All the polls are doing is adjusting to suit peoples voting intention at the immenient local elections - that’s it. Just as they will adjust afterwards to reflect what happens.
You can say it’s GE intention as much as you like, but people have local elections at the front of their minds, which are in less than 7 days, and they’re going to answer how they’re going to vote on 4th May.
I’m not one of those people who’ll ignore bad polls and play up good ones. It’s quite clear that the Conservatives are not on the brink of an election victory. I know that, you know that, we probably all know that. However, they are in a position where they could potentially achieve parity in seats with Labour in HoC, were an election held tomorrow - 70/80 seat gain would be relatively straightforward.
What Cameron HAS done is to level the playing field. Whether he’ll win the game, or just draw the match, is the question for me.
46. Silly question, really.
My wife is a probation officer and she frequently visits Bullingdon Prison to see her “Bullingdon Boys”. Perhaps if Inspector Yates is successful some of Tony’s cronies may also be joining the “Bullingdon Club”!
2. Toque
Yep. The West Lothian Question is going to sink Brown (and Reid, Darling, Browne, Alexander, Falconer et al) sooner or later. The Labour Party had better be very, very careful indeed, because he might just take them with him…
45. You have no idea what you are talking about. Liam Fox came to our patch recently and spoke for a long time with extraordinary warmth about David Cameron and how he respects and consults his Shad Cab colleagues. It’s just spin spin spin with you.
Both Blair and Brown come from priveliged backgrounds and went to private school, Blair to the famous Fettes. There’s not a hair’s breadth between that and Eton.
Fairness is a foreign concept to you.
39. “Blair put lipstick on the socialist pig….”
I’m sure this is an old one but I hadn’t heard it and it had me laughing out loud!
Test. I missed the story about Brown’s social security fraud. Can you point me to some details?
“Personally I think the Tories will do quite well next week, but that Labour won’t do quite as badly as people have thought.”
I actually agree with Pigeon Street here.
Think this analysis is spot on.
52. Why Roger - are you short of a few quid?
I’m not the Google King like Andrea but I’ll try to find it for you Roger. Must have been on Guido or Iain Dale as those are the ones I read.
39- test- as an old Trotsky myself who still harbours some deep rooted hope that capitalism will get overthrown and human beings will live equally and fairly- I am quite happy that Mr Brown was once of the same ilk.
It is just a pity that capitalism will destroy the planet first before we come to the conclusion that rampant individualism, materialism and greed isn’t quite for the betterment of us all. C’est la vie.
“Does the words barrel bottom clutchs and straws mean any thing to you?”
An Eton induction ceremony?
38 - fair point Tyson, they should have done and I’m surprised you didn’t. It’s Mike’s site and he can do what what he likes, I just think it detracts slightly form the point he makes. Having said that, inventive insults in the comments don’t bother me at all.
45 perhaps you could give us a weekly update, as you appear to attend the Shadow Cabinet and know all about it.
Anecdotal entertainment: Canvassing in heavily intellectual Beeston West yesterday, with our two candidates who are markedly to the left of me (Stop the War Coalition members, Save Council Housing, etc.). We came across a series of voters who were wrestling with this problem: they want to protest against Labour because of the war; they want to vote for me next time because they think I’m a good MP despite the war; they don’t want to punish their left-wing local councillors. How then do they express their protest? I suggested giving me an ear-bashing and then voting for the candidates… (agonised looks all round)
54- scallywag- honestly very quick and funny.
58-kingbongo- horses mouth, and straight from.
Anyway, ciao for now.
52. Why Roger - are you short of a few quid?
Good one! (And about time with a username like that!!)
36-Tyson
‘You could give Cameron a wide bearth from his elitist university days- but the guy is still buried in his neck with his old school tie and elitist chums and crones’
Shouldn’t we should be equally concerned about Gordo’s university days as he’s about to become our Prime Minister.
His publication of the ‘Freeloader’s charter’ in which he describes social security benefits as ‘free money’,nothing wrong with being a parasite and when caught by police ‘you may think you are guilty but legal advice can show otherwise’
Most disingenuos leaflet of this year’s local elections put out by Conservatives in Luton ? Says Liberal Labour alliance not working in Luton . Only snag is the council is run by a LibDem Conservative alliance !!!!
Re Newsnight prediction fro locals.Can somone pleas econfim what exactly the figures were for forecast shares and seat gains losses?
Thanks
Roger H
27
‘Roger, Brown did not “scratch” his nose. He picked it. It’s on YouTube’
To be factually accurate he not only picked his nose but alternated between eating the contents and wiping the contents on the back of his tie.
A real turn on for floating female voters.
64 Missed the vote share figures but forecast gins/losses were Lab -500 Con +330 LibDem +110 . Not sure whether that is England only or includes Scotland
Oh dear, is Mike about to join the greens? He doesn’t seem to like any of the people who are likely to lead the three main parties into the next election. As the Greens don’t have a leader thay sound like the ideal party for him.
Mike this is your train set, thanks for letting us play with it. You can call anyone whatever you like (especially hello clouds, hello sky, Cameron)
Roger here is the link to the “choices” Brown made at university:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/news/news.html?in_article_id=447205&in_page_id=1770
“there’s nothing wrong with squatting or being a “parasite”.”
“”For the experienced parasite the Edinburgh Festival is a gift,” the booklet declares, with advice on gatecrashing receptions - “enter via the side door” - and getting a free bath and food at smart hotels.
It suggests: “Sit in the lobby until reception is busy, then walk quickly upstairs or into the lift. Even the plushest hotels have at least one public bathroom to a floor.”
And for free food, it recommends: “Con your way to asking for a glass of water or sit beside drinkers and they will feed you for nothing.”
Rector Brown’s book also advocates sneaking into cut-price works canteens and even “masquerading as a student” in college canteens. “Just say you’ve forgotten your student card.”"
He doesn’t even stand his round! A serious sin
“An “infallible” method of cheating your way into bring-a-bottle parties is to “use a carrier bag of empty cans with two half-bricks at the bottom”.”
Lovely!
“Girls are advised to work as “go-go girls”, the Seventies equivalent of pole dancers.”
That’ll go down well with the women’s vote eh?
“And if you’re caught by police while working any scam, don’t worry.
“You may think you are guilty but legal advice can show otherwise,” says the future Chancellor’s guide.”
Sorry you asked now, aren’t you? Think you on the left better keep quiet about student misdemeanours as a guide to present character.
May be of interest to those with bets on the US scene (see also accompanying article), though it sounds fairly inconclusive:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/us_and_americas/article1713018.ece
66
Mark,were these projections done by the same two university professors as last year (Thresher + ?),as they were a long way out last year?
70 Yes , just as worthwhile … or not as last year’s .
GB is only the only chancellor since WW2 to beat inflation (don’t mention cheap immigrant labour, or the price of imported manufactured goods). On that measure, he is the best. GB is ‘formidably intelligent’.
In terms of the gap in the health of the public finances he inherited compared with the state which he is bequeathing, he is worst chancellor in history. His micro-economic failures (starting with pensions…) have been covered many times. He has a raft of policies, which we be detailed shortly
So what matters most to the floating voter (fv)?
None of the above.
The fv decides on his gut. ‘Policies’ were, are, and will remain irrelevant. We see from polls that DC is considered as ‘reasonable’. How does the fv feel about GB? Unenthusiastic. Can GB change that? I’m betting not. But if those who disagree would kindly match my offer to sell labour seats at the next GE (on spreadfair @ 277.2), I’d be grateful.
What’s wrong with that Mark? Clearly the Liberal Labour alliance doesn’t work in Luton.
Conservatives in Luton seem to be in office but not in power…
Tyson ” the sectretive, elitist Bullingdon society chooses its elitist members carefully, selectively and secretely.”
So it was secret then, and selective? And selected secretly? And careful in its selective secrecy? In an elite way, of course.
Your concise prose and detailed insider knowledge of the Shadow Cabinet are invaluable.
63 I see the CONS are at last learning from the LDs how to campaign
Thanks for the article Mike. I can’t pretend I am happy about a dip in Conservative support, and i certainly hope that Labour MP’s don’t take the poll to heart as we want Gordon to be Labour leader!
After my 68 I notice the Labour contingent have gone very quiet
You’re not singing anymore!
The charm and wit on display today I think reflect the fact that despite everything that Labour have done/are doing, at this point the Conservatives do not seem to be convincing the electorate.
Next Thursday really will be an acid test- for everyone:
Tories must make at least 500-600 gains to be convincing.
Labour’s expectations are so low that limiting the damage to 250 losses would be considered good. The Liberal Democrat support in the polls seems so volatile that I honestly don’t know if they will be down 250 or up 75. Meanwhile support for “others” seems to imply some breakthrough for Greens or BNP.
So every party can have hopes, but equally every party has something to fear from the results.
FWIW -and just a bit of fun- I think that The Tories will do quite well-500 gains or so, but losses in Scotland and no progress in the North will take the gloss off- “still more to do”. Labour will hang on at Holyrood and the SNP will only get a few seats more than they got in the first election in 1999. Meanwhile Labour will save quite a few councils but lose very heavily in the South- “not as bad as we feared”. The Lib Dems will be roughly flat on overall councillors- and will breath a sigh of relief: “still in the fight”- however they are set to lose councillors in the South though may pick up more Councils overall from the North.
So although all the parties are afraid at the moment, perhaps the results will end up as a bit a Curate’s egg for all of them.
Rhodri Morgan was very bullish on Dragon’s Eye last night. He kept saying that the reaction on the doorstep was as good as 2003 - just the problem of getting the vote out.
How much of this is just “what you would expect any party leader to say” or actual truth? Rhodri has been quite successful in separating Welsh Labour from London New Labour. If he can get the vote out there may be some surprises for the opposition, especially in Wrexham, for example.
32- FWIW, there’s a hell of a lot of low-key day-to-day cooperation that goes on between Andrew Adonis and the Tories; there’s a hell of a lot of constructive bi-partisanship going on there. If Labour swerved to the Left then I could see a defection being quite plausible actually. Mind you, it’s always difficult to seperate friendship and cooperation with a genuine potential for defection.
As for the Bullingdon thing, IMO students get pissed and do stupid things all the time; why should doing it in white tie and tails make any difference? When I was at Cambridge I narrowly avoided being sick on a Bishop once; it doesn’t make me a toffee-nosed elitist or anything, just a drunken idiot.
What is happening in the H o C today? I see they are talking about Building Societies. - Does this mean that the Freedom of Information (except if you want to know about MPs) bill will not be heard today and that Nick can carry on campaigning?
79 - Very fair analysis Cicero - what do you think about the likely Welsh result?
We had a very interesting canvass last night in a very anti-Tory area (we are deep into enemy territory now).
I was surprised by was the very large number of LD’s who consciously have decided not to vote next week.
This marks a big change because it was always more common for the LD’s to be sure to vote and our side that haven’t been.
That is local feedback, we have special issues here related to the local council.
Nationally the LD’s are doing well -better than 2006- and I think they will have reason to celebrate next Friday.
Amazingly this is the Mail’s damning line!
“Social and medical benefits are your right, not charity hand-outs, so never be reticent about claiming them. For whatever the reason the so-called welfare State was brought into being, it can and must be used to its full extent.”
It goes on to say that at the same time Brown was penning this Cameron at the same stage in his education was trashing restaurants. I suppose some people might find this more appealing than someone informing the poor of their entitlements?
Many thanks to Nick Palmer at 59 for the information on his canvassing for two Labour “Defend Council Housing” Candidates.
They should come and meet the Tower Hamlets Labour Party. Labour councillors here get Defend Council House supporters sacked from their jobs (and lose a fortune on the subsequent payouts), and have to suffer gruesome publicity as the ballots go pearshaped.
The upside for Labour councillors/activists in places like Tower Hamlets are board positions on the RSLs.
Nice if you can get it.
One final point, why on earth would anyone believe that a Labour activist, such as Tyson, has details of opinions within the shadow cabinet?
Bizarre
Meacher and McDonnell have (finally) agreed that they will meet on the day of Blair’s resignation and the one with less supporters will withdraw and back the other
[81] Well even Foreign Secretaries make such mistakes:
One of George Brown’s drunker moments as Foreign Secretary found him staggering into a State gala in Rio more than an hour after it had officially begun.
The best way of absorbing himself into the assembly and evading the rigours of diplomatic conversation, he woozily decided, would be to get straight on to the dance floor. Lurching up to a vision in dark red, he mumbled, ‘Would you care to dance, Madam?’
‘I will not dance with you,’ the vision in dark red replied, ‘for three reasons. Firstly you are drunk. Secondly, the band is playing the National Anthem. And thirdly I am the Cardinal Archbishop of Montevideo.’
79-Cicero
‘Next Thursday really will be an acid test- for everyone:
‘Tories must make at least 500-600 gains to be convincing.
Labour’s expectations are so low that limiting the damage to 250 losses would be considered good. The Liberal Democrat support in the polls seems so volatile that I honestly don’t know if they will be down 250 or up 75. Meanwhile support for “others” seems to imply some breakthrough for Greens or BNP.’
What gains do the Lib Dems have to make next week ‘to be convincing’?
Why is it you can set very specific parameters on how to measure the performance next week for the Tories & Labour,but when it comes to your own party there is no measurement in terms of success or failure?
Is this so you can spin any result for the Lib Dems next week as being good?
[83] I find it hard to judge Wales, but anecdotally Rhodri Morgan seems to have limited the damage to the Labour brand. Meanwhile Plaid are being a little pressed by the Tories in Ynys Mon and not making so much progress in the South- My impression is that Labour might even make a gain or two, for example in Wrexham. The Tories seem set to gain three or four, Lib Dems might drop one.
81- One of my favourite stories, that…
Sorry, that was meant to be a reply to 88…
John at 79. Last year it was a gain of one seat and one council overall. However, two Lib Dems gains in Worthing saw a spin that suggested Government was shortly attainable.
More fun will be who will be spinning on TV and Radio. Wheezing Falconer is always good for a laugh, except the BBC treat him as if he were a serious figure with an electoral mandate.
Somehow the man who was turned down as a Labour MP because of his being a hypocrite and entered the Legislature thanks to his former flatmate, commenting on elections becomes totally surreal.
[89] Well simply: losses of more than 150 would be bad, flat would be OK, gains above 75 would be good.
87. Between them they should muster enough awkward squad types for one to go ahead, probably McDonnell of the rumours are right.
Re 88, Cicero, Yes that story is very funny!
51 - I’m not a Brown fan either, but to call Brown’s background ‘priviledged’ is a Tory spin too far.
Brown is the son of a Church of Scotland minister, went to his local High School and Edinburgh University. He lost sight in one eye aged 15 in a rugby accident and despite having a series of operations to save the sight in his other eye while at University he went on to get a first and become student Rector and chairing the Court.
I wouldn’t say that was particularly priviledged - and the way he has coped with his disability at such a young age, does suggest a certain strength of character.
I still however don’t think he has the appeal that the 97/01 Blair had, but he is a formidable operator and will be difficult to beat.
86 Tyson is more than a Labour activist he’s a Trot. I’m sure his straight from the horse’s mouth chats with those chippy Shadow Cabinet friends of his must be very therapeutic for them. There’s nothing David Davis likes more than sinking a few pints with his old mate Tyson and sharing with him how much he despises Cameron. Winning elections and entering government is going to be so tough for DD that I don’t know how he’ll cope if Tyson’s not around to share the pain.
85: Roger (aka Gordon) - does the Daily Mail article actually state that Cameron went round trashing restaurants, or is that just your blatant misrepresentation of it?
Intrigued by your continued reference to this supposed activity of DC’s. Somewhat defamatory on your part if not true…
99. Stop wasting your time in actually engaging.
85. Perhaps you missed the damning lines. I’m happy to reiterate them!
* Women should work as go-go dancers
* Scroungers should cheat students out of their benefits by claiming to have lost student cards
* Scroungers should steal food and baths from hotels
* Scroungers should steal booze from other poor people by conning their way into parties using empty cans and bricks - Gordon won’t even stand his round
* Con the police even if you know you are guilty of an offence
A bit worse than having some mates who trashed restaurants and paid for it, which DC himself never did.
On subject of what would be a good/bad result for the parties.
How about first setting some parameters that apply to all?
Principles I suggest is that in overall nett terms
1. Gaining >10% of councillors being defended = progress (Tories 500+, LD 250+ etc)
2. Gaining less than 5% is standing still. (6% to 9% a little progress).
3. Losing more than 2% is = losing ground.
4. Losing more than 10% to 19% of numbers defended = a big setback.
5. Losing 20%+ is a disaster.
101 Was it not the last Conservative government that threatened to remove benefits from women if they were not prepared to sell their bodies and accept jobs from escort agencies ?
New thread on Meacher and McDonnell
94-Cicero
‘Well simply: losses of more than 150 would be bad, flat would be OK, gains above 75 would be good.’
With such an unpopular government,how can you possibly say that ‘flat would be OK’?
The key issue with Brown is how his ratings with the general public have deteriorated the more he has been scrutinised and the closer we get to the reality of a Brown Premiership. True, he has had very negative press but it’s his lack of charm in front of a TV camera which betrays him. There may be a small dead cat (Macavity) bounce once he succeeeds but I don’t expect it to be sustained. I hope I am wrong.
15. Tyson. Nor do I agree with your or Mike Smithson’s suggestion that men in red suits will jettison Brown before the next GE. The Labour party don’t have a history of doing this.
re 101 “Scroungers should steal booze from other poor people by conning their way into parties using empty cans and bricks - Gordon won’t even stand his round”
Are the real west lothian question.
[105] Look it is only weeks since several Conservative posters here were talking about a total flame out, and given a generally poor year in polls, I think that- psychologically- not actually losing ground counts as OK.
106. I susopect a totally negative press for Gordon for some time to come.
The problem is how does he respond to it and can he respond well to it?
109 - the answer is to just ignore the bad press - grin and bear it while trying to set your own agenda.
39. Blair “putting lipstick on the Socialist pig”. I thought that was Carole Caplin in “Hello” magazine.
Morning all :). Re: 108 - Don’t bother with John, Cicero, he’s a wind-up merchant who is constantly trying to bait LDs with regard to next week.
As to your thoughts at 79, I think that’s more or less what I said last week though you’ve said it better. The week’s polls have been more encouraging and we now have to get the vote out next Thursday. In low turnout elections, it’s the side with the motivated voters that does best and that will probably be the Conservatives in the south.
WRT differences between polls and experiences on the doorstep, I think it’s only to be expected that the Conservatives’ notional vote share in the local elections will exceed their share in opinion polls. At present, in local elections, Conservatives will be more motivated to vote than Labour supporters.
Labour may have a chance of spinning the results in their favour on Friday morning, if they just cling on as the largest party in Scotland (not impossible, looking at Stuart Dickson’s calculations), as their losses in the Met boroughs (which will count on Thursday night) probably won’t be huge. The loss of hundreds of seats in English Districts, counting on Friday, might not attract such media attention.
The basic thread seems to be that Brown has mishandled the nation’s finances and Cameron doesn’t convince much of the country. I’ve felt all along that the Tories should have gone with Ken Clarke (whatever his views on Europe) and I’d suspect he’d be doing better than Cameron in the heart of England.
The latest Welsh polling is awful for the Tories, slipping back from where they were in 2003. I think the campaign has been quite locally based - not a lot about Blair, but if the tories are not making progress here then i reckon they’ll struggle to retake the heart of England aswell. I presume everyone thinks Scotland is a no-hoper for them now.
Mike, those Yougov numbers dont make sense! The percentages add up to 101% and the changes add up to +2… ??
Re: 113 - I think this is the critical point, Sean. If you are dealing with 35-40% turnout (or less) then the more motivated voters can make a big difference. The COnservatives are traditionally good at getting the vote out and that, combined with a greater motivation among Tory-inclined, will mean the party will pick up seats next week.
In an election with a higher turnout (and I think the next GE will see turnout recovering back toward 70%), the Tory motivated bloc can be swamped by the Labour or LD voters who become more motivated to vote. We have yet to see substantial Conservative success in high turnout elections (over 50%). I well recall hundreds of Tory gains in 2000 but the loss of Romsey on a higher turnout.
This is why I will be looking at turnout more than individual gains and losses next week. The Scottish and Welsh elections may see higher turnouts and may be more indicative of what will happen in those areas at the next GE.
Just looking at Baxter, it was interesting to note John Major getting nearly 30% of the vote in Wales in ‘92 and up against a Welsh labour leader of course! Cameron would be lucky to get 20%. He just isn’t winning support in the heart of Britain.
116 My point is more that Conservatives (and Lib Dems)would be more motivated to vote in this round of elections, rather than in low-turnout elections in general.
What I find more interesting is the fact the Telegraph is leading with the decline in Brown’s support. A few months ago it would be that the Conservative vote was dipping a bit - looks like Cameron has been able to win them over.
Personally I think polls are a tad irrelevant now, as locals don’t attract that many voters. However, it will be the local results that have the most impact on the political climate from May onwards.
Frank Booth, what is this “heart of England” you’re talking about? It sounds so cliched!
I mean that part of England away from London and it’s colonies through the midlands towards Yorkshire and Lancashire. Bascially somewhere in the middle.
It is not just Cameron, but since ‘97 most Tory gains have been in and around London. If they can’t start appealing more widely, they have no chance. Posing on the front of GQ with smug self-satisfaction might get them talking in West End dinner parties, but not in the Midlands, North, Wales, Scotland or South West.
[113] Yes Sean, I think that is a reasonable summary. You are right to point out that for Labour the sting might come in the tail, by which time the- probably better for Labour- early results will have been spun to Labour’s advantage.
Re: 118 - Not sure I understand you, Sean. I think the supporters of the opposition parties are always more motivated and likely to vote than the supporters of the Government party (though I appreciate we can find examples of the reverse being the case).
After a decade out of power, it’s not surprising that the Tory support is motivated and Labour support much less so.
I well remember the 1993 County Council elections when Tory candidates often got the same number of votes as before but saw the opposition vote increase dramatically (look at London in 1994 for the same phenomenon). This was when local election turnouts were 45% or more in many areas.
120 I think the Tories will do well in the Midlands, plus Cheshire. It’s West Yorkshire and Lancashire that are problematic.
117. Duh? They got 19% in 2005! Getting more than 20% next time is certain. I think they’ll have at least six MPs from Wales next time I believe.
117. Duh? They got 19% in 2005! Getting more than 20% next time is certain. I think they’ll have at least six MPs from Wales next time I believe.
117. Duh? They got 19% in 2005! Getting more than 20% next time is certain. I think they’ll have at least six MPs from Wales next time I believe.
90. You mean Mont. You could drop that and pick up Swansea West.
127 I think he means losing a list seat .
90 & 127 I can’t see Swansea West, Wrexham or Montgomery changing hands in Wales nor any South Wales valley seat except for perhaps Caerphilly where Ron Davies is standing and likely to get a couple of thousand votes, an uninspiring Labour member and a local and well known Plaid candidate campaigning in the town every day to save the local post office.
RE 66,70,79,
Last year Newsnight forecast baswed on local a by election anlysis by Thesher and Rawlings;
Losses fro the Tories,who actually gained c 300 seats,gain sof over 150 fro the LIb dems who actually stood still,an dloose fro Labour who actually did worse(i Think.
Following the same error pattern we should expect substantailly more than 500 Tory gains (I’ll go fro 800-900,Lib dems at best standing still (i’ll go for 100 plus losses) and Labour losing around 700 -800 seats.
In terms of announced BBC share then Con 40+,Lib 26,and Lab 24%.
Roger H
130 You may be right but it is not logical to assume that the errors will be the same as last year .
48. Class warfare is alive and well and burning merrily in the Tory shadow cabinet. As I said before Fox and Davis despise Cameron and his eton cabal. The Tory party shift to meritocracy with the rise of Heath, Thatcher, Clarke, Patten, Fox, Hague- grammar school, then Major, no school, is over. Eton and elitism is back, which is bloody depressing.
Yes, it says something depressing about Comprehensives. BTW Tyson, have you got a chip on your shoulder about class and toffs?