How much can we trust the Scottish polls?
April 29th, 2007
Have the “funny surveys” been over-stating Labour?
The table has been adapted from Wikipedia and shows the incredible variation in the polling surveys of the regional or list vote ahead of next Thursday’s crucial election for the Scottish Parliament.
On the one hand there have been the surveys by those pollsters which are listed as members of the British Polling Council which are required as part of their membership to follow strict transparency rules. Within two working days of a poll being published the BPC code requires basic detail to be made public so it is possible to analyse how the headline figures were arrived at.
From the above table YouGov, ICM, Populus, and TNS System Three are BPC members and have been carrying out political opinion polling for some time. Just compare their findings for Labour with those from the non-listed firms - MRUK and Scottish Opinion.
During April the BPC members have found Labour shares within a solid 25-27% band. Three of the surveys from the non-listed firms have found shares of 38%, 37%, and 34%. These numbers stretch credulity when you consider that in the Regional list in 2003 Labour chalked up 29.3% of the vote.
A lot has happened over the past four years to Labour and the idea that the party might be securing more than a quarter more votes this time is a total and utter nonsense.
A couple of weeks ago I proposed a wager of £1,000 here to MRUK and the Herald that the predicted Labour shares would be proved wrong. Surprise surprise this has not been taken up.
Mike Smithson
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How much can we trust the REAL polls?
The Sunday Times states that it has produced “hard evidence of Labour flouting the official electoral code of conduct amid desperation over the party’s prospects in Thursday’s polls.”
As the Sunday Times reports:
“Student activists, including an undercover reporter, were then told by another councillor to take away the postal voting forms, hide them as they left people’s homes and only post them later if they were for Labour.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/article1719907.ece
It is clear the Labour Party is bent to the core and has no respect for the law, democracy or the people. They have gerrymandered the voting system so it is open to corruption. Their own activists are the ones involved in the corruption and there are no proper safeguards in place. Now they are pushing through electronic voting, disregarding the expert advice. My grandfather gave his life so we could have the right to freedom and democracy. So did millions of others. That means absolutely nothing to the Labour Party. May they rot in hell.
I am extremely sceptical about any poll. There is only one poll that matters and that’s the real one. I have a hard time understanding how polls have to be corrected for misremembering, and that Labour votes in polls are overestimated.
My vote is my own business, and I sure as hell wouldn’t tell any pollster which way I intended to vote, though my moniker here rather gives the game away.
Let’s see what happens on May 3rd. Only one thing is almost certain. It’s not going to be a happy evening for Labour.
Yes the polls are extreamley volitile in scotland. Labour are in trouble by the fact that a devolved government is allowing Blair and Brown to takeover the campaign. I think Blair must have spent most of the last couple of weeks there!
In England Labour seem to have written off their local government elections. I know in my ward, Labour are being very selective about houses they send to each households where as the tories have sent them to all households. Could well be an interesting result in England.
I think that Labour will certainly suffer from tatical voting against them in Scotland this time!
Last thing to mention is the sunday times has a piece on Leeds, where Labour members have been involved in postal vote shenanigans. It begs the question can we trust the validity of election results.
“Once this election is over I plan to press the Press Complaints Commission to clampdown on papers describing as opinion polls surveys where the BPC transparency rules do not operate.”
Well done, Mike. I’d like to support you. Should I write independently?
An interesting piece in the Labour supporting Guardian:
http://politics.guardian.co.uk/scotland/story/0,,2068186,00.html
If your friends are saying you are heading for defeat - then it is bad!
5. Sorry Obsever!
It is sad to see Labour face an electoral kicking, and even sadder to have to say that it has been well-earned and richly-deserved.
A lot of what will happen on Thursday is surely down to Blair alone — his protracted departure has frustrated real change and renewal, and his polluted figure reminds voters of lies and Iraq and peerages and all that stinks about New Labour.
4. Ditto
I worked for the Herald for many years. One of its editors, the late Arnold Kemp, took pride in destroying the Tory party in Scotland and was always happy to boast the fact. After him, there was only one decent successor - Harry Reid. Its brown-nosed political bias is laughable - no wonder its circulation has fallen over the years.
Mike continues to insist that the polls are overestimating Labour. I suspect the opposite, actually. The electorate up here are very conservative with a small c, and the SNP always do better in polls than on the day. This is going to be much more of a knife-edge election than you’d think from the polls and the market, the latter of which I suspect is being heavily influenced by optimistic Nats.
Labour are at 3.9 on Betfair. I think that’s already value, and it’ll presumably continue to drift as the week goes on. If they get as long as 4.5 or 5.0, they must be worth a punt. Especially if, like me, you want them out: if the SNP win, I won’t care about losing my stake.
Interesting that the Sunday Herald have come out for the SNP today. This is the first time a broadsheet (or any paper, I think, other than briefly the Scottish Sun) has backed the Nationalists. This should collapse their odds even further.
“Once this election is over I plan to press the Press Complaints Commission to clampdown on papers describing as opinion polls surveys where the BPC transparency rules do not operate.”
Quite right too. The (Labour-supporting) Herald especially should know a heck of a lot better. Their behaviour in switching from the respected TNS System Three to that mruk bunch is really disgraceful for a supposèd “quality” newspaper.
Ta Mike and PtP.
11. Colin
Nope, not just the Sunday Herald. Apparently the Sunday Times Scotland also endorsed the SNP in its editorial today, as does Scotland on Sunday (kind of). See the previous thread, from this morning.
12. Will there also be a complaint against the Liberal Democrat party for producing bogus ‘polls’ like the one in the Moray byelection?
13. No it’s the same thing. I would imagine though that there is some organisation to make such a complant to as it is delibrate misrepresentation of information.
Shows what a crap party the LD’s are if they have to pull stupid tricks like that!
Where i live their showing in the polls collapsed after doing such a poll!
The Scottish election may will add an interesting factor to the next GE. If Labour get’s booted out - then it is likely the SNP will get a further swing towards them at the next Scottish parliament election (Unless there is a chatastrophic problem linked to the SNP(Very unlikely). This is because people tend to follow the hurd and was on a similar basis the reason why the tories followed a core vote strategy in 2001.
12. Really? Is the whole Murdoch stable backing the SNP now, then?
13 - The latest Lib Dem leaflet up here in Inverness contains a survey in which they claim the SNP are on 32%, Lib Dems 30%, Lab 19% and Con 12%. It also has the usual bizarre collection of photos of people pointing at things and looking serious (apart from the one of Charles Kennedy who looks like he is about to be attacked by a buzzard).
Today’s newspapers editorials backing the SNP
http://www.snp.org/press-releases/2006/snp-welcome-newspaper-endorsements/
Marcia, will the SoS support mean that some of the more excitable contributors to the SoS site will stop willing the execution of columnists who disagree with them?!
I fear a bruising time is in store for Mr Warner in his webchat this afternoon…
What hasn’t been factored into these polls is the likely rise in interest rates by as much as 0.5% on polling day next week.
19. Would make little sense factoring that in given that the rate decision is due a week after polling day.
19. mpc rates decision due on 10th, I think they normally delay it for elections
18 - polls are only polls - one remembers 1970 and 1992 but the political atmosphere is different this time - we need to get the vote out and that is what we will hope to do here on Thursday. I have a sneaky feeling that turnout will be a big higher this time by the comments on the doorsteps.
O/T - Same old Tories beneath the veneer?
A Conservative candidate in Telford is a former senior member of the National Front.
George Ashcroft was a Regional Organiser for the National Front in the late 1990’s.
He made his local association aware of his past and they still selected him!
*note - (for those who might not be aware) - The National Front are so extreme they make the BNP look like choirboys.
BB
19. Virtually all the money is on a 1/4% rate hike after the 3.1% inflation figure and letter writing business, plus various comments by MPC members. But there was surprise hike in Jan and there must surely be an outside chance they will keep them on hold. Betfair is offering 20 to 1 on rates staying on hold, so I put a couple of quid on at that price, even if I do think that a 0.25 move is odds on.
13. Sooty - “Will there also be a complaint against the Liberal Democrat party for producing bogus ‘polls’ like the one in the Moray byelection?”
Absolutely no need whatsoever, because the Lib Dems have simply shot themselves in the foot there. I will be watching the results in Moray with great interest. The Lib Dems disgraceful behaviour during last year’s by-election will be punished by the electorate for at least a generation to come. It is one of the few seats where the Tories should benefit a bit at the Lab Dims expense.
12 - Stuart I think one of the reasons that the Scottish press use pollsters like mruk and Scottish Opinion is that they are relatively cheap. I’m not sure how much ICM, You Gov etc charge for a poll but I imagine it’s fairly expensive.
Scottish opinion (according to their web site) charge from as little as £350 for a 1,000 person survey.
I also remember someone saying that another reason the Herald dropped sytem 3 was that they got the outcome of the 1999 & 2003 elections quite badly wrong.
In saying that I totally agree with Mike WRT to his complaint to the PCC.
I agree it is really annoying when parties dub canvass returns as local polling.
However, when LDs crunch the numbers properly, the adjusted canvass returns are very accurate. Somehow I don’t think the canvass returns in Moray had the formula applied to them however… the data was very raw.
26 - such cheap polling makes 3% margin of error look like a joke!
27. Interesting admission there by a Lib Dem candidate that his own party is dishonest.
29 Whereas there many Conservatives who are still in self denial that the last Conservative government was riddled with corruption .
re 30
A few brown envelops for questions pales into insignificance with what this Govt has done.
31
Brown envelopes and sex with the secretary - versus - cash for honours, postal vote fraud and a war fought under dubious legality.
No contest really
30. Yawn, Mark don’t you ever get tired of the rather unprincipled argument that it must be okay if someone else did it first.
33 Corruption in government does not quite equate with misleading information in an election leaflet . You seem too be not alone in accepting corruption as the natural order of Conservative rule .
http://www.portsmouthtoday.co.uk/portsmouth-and-southsea?articleid=2727673
34
I am sure we could all trawl through local papers and find stories about councillors from all parties who haven’t behaved properly.
your point is only well made if every Labour Councillor and MP is without sin, which of course its abslute tosh.
http://news.scotsman.com/politics.cfm?id=626572007
read the comments clumn. comment 1
34.Mark read my post again, I would like you to point out where in that post I advocated “accepting corruption as the natural order of Conservative rule.”
It takes a very strange kind of mind that cannot admit to any wrongdoing or errors by a political party. The mind of the fanatic.
37 An excellent post . You spell out very clearly the minds of many Conservatives when it comes to admitting the wrongdoings in the last Conservative government .
29 - oh grow up! I’ve never seen any of the Moray campaign literature for any party. I have no idea what was said, have no knowledge of any canvass returns or “polls published” and am relying on the good word of biased commentators here.
Admission? My arse! What admission?
When Scotland, Wales and Ireland get their rightful Independence it will be a great day for the English as, we won`t have to be bored again listening to them.
Rather a lot of trolls around today. Billy goats beware!
Hmm oh dear apparently the Welsh media have started the proverbial p***take of the Cardiff West Lib Dem candidate over her “hard core” support. Really such juvenile behaviour from journalists.
Like HAL the computer, the new lab trolls are returning to the first tune they learned (Tory sleaze) as they are gradually being unplugged.
Well it’s election week, so we’re getting to the awful stage we had during the Bromley by election and so on where nobody looked good and where politics itself sank further into the gutter. Remember that? On a day when we find out more about the wholesale corruption taking place in the electoral process the way that politicians (local ones just as much as national ones) behave is the reason why politicians continue to be treated by many people as barely one step up from vermin.
Any chance we’ll draw back from that over the next few days?
Thought not.
36 - Hi Chris hows things going in your neck of the woods? Quite honestly I’ll just be glad when the electioons over!
I see in the SOS that ‘party strategists’ are saying they reckon we are on the way to victory in Dumfries and Eastwood. I also understand there are a couple of other seats where things are going well too. We shall find out soon.
Down here in T,E,L the local Lib Dems are doing there best to help out. Not content with claiming in a leaflet that they will ‘cut crimes commited by Lib Dems’ but they forgot to put stamps on some envelopes and some of the good people of Selkirk had to pay £1.30 for the priveledge. If only all our opponents were so helpful!
Mike –I disagreed with you when you said “ignore” the mruk rogue poll, because I knew that in Scotland Labour propagandists had used the figures to argue that the tide was turning. Was it commissioned because The Herald wanted to save a few quid or because its Political Editor wanted to dish the SNP?.
However I am now glad to see that you will be taking action against the use of these Mickey Mouse pollsters–whose results can obviously be manipulated for political purposes. Well done that man!
“Not content with claiming in a leaflet that they will ‘cut crimes commited by Lib Dems’ but they forgot to put stamps on some envelopes and some of the good people of Selkirk had to pay £1.30 for the priveledge.”
Are you sure it wasn’t opposition supporters working for the Royal Mail who steamed off the stamps so the recipient incurred the penalty?
How much can we trust the Scottish trolls ?
How much can we trust the Scottish proles ?
47 - You’ve sussed me out SBS!!!!
To add a bit of balance you’re campaign in Edinburgh Central is pretty impressive and I suspect it will be going yellow on Thursday.
49 “To add a bit of balance you’re campaign in Edinburgh Central is pretty impressive and I suspect it will be going yellow on Thursday.”
Do the SNP have any chance in Edin Central or are the LIb Dems the only way to get rid of Labour. I agree with you regarding their campaign.
I’ve been collating all the polls since the formal dissoultion of parliament and have been averaging them and then applying the same error as there was in 2003 (and it brings up some interesting numbers)
Average of all polls (constituency and regional):
Con 13%, Lab 30%, Lib Dem 14.5%, SNP 35.5%, Others 7.5%
SNP lead of 5.5%
Average of all polls (constituency and regional) adjusted for error:
Con 16%, Lab 26.5%, Lib Dem 16.5%, SNP 33.5%, Others 8.5%
SNP lead of 7%
47 - that is an outrageous allegation, SBS. You are a typical dirty tricks Lib Dem.
Re 50: Edinburgh Central 2003
Lab 32.36%
Lib Dem 22.85%
SNP 17.72%
Con 17.14%
SSP 9.11%
Others 0.82%
38 and also the mindset of Lib Dems with their party’s wrongdoings and Labour with theirs.
Corruption in the last COnservative government? would need details. Lots of badly behaved pairs of trousers, some very unsavoury characters but corruption in the government? what exactly are you talking about? I’d be the first person to want to have criminal charges brought against anyone doing anything illegal so what crimes are you talking about, there’s no statute of limitations so we can still get these corrupt politicos banged up; might need some evidence though.
53
Thanks for that. Though I seem to recall the SNP were in second spot in 1999. Not impossible for them to challenge again perhaps.
51. Would ytou look at the previous thread and PenDDu’s predictions to have your opinion.
50 - I tend to think not. There campaign doesn’t seem to be as well resourced as the Lib Dems. And the fact they sent me three leaflets for three different constituencies (West, North and Central) doesn’t say much for organisational skills!
49. Max, the Edinburgh Central campaign was the one with the risotto recipe? I suppose you liked the recipe
Interestingly the Scotsman was claiming this week that Edinburgh Central LD candidate didn’t seem to have found momentun so far. But maybe it was just them not liking the risotto thing
57
Yes. Probably you are right. As to leaflets I have been inundated with guff from the Lib Dems and Labour and now you mention it not all that much from the SNP.
OT. Looking at Anthony Wells’ website, it seems there was a yougov poll of Labour members in Sunday Times. The result was: Brown 80%, McDonnell 9%, Meacher 6%, Charles Clarke 5%
Deputy Leader: Benn 36%, Johnson 19%, Hain 15%, Harman 13%, Cruddas 10%, Blears 9%
1. This concerns me, and I am even more concerned that no-one else on this thread has picked it up.
58 - I haven’t tried it yet Andrea! Didn’t sound that appealing.
59 - I’ve not had much at all from Labour but there probably aren’t many Labour voters in and around where I live so they could be concentrating on other areas.
And Mike surely this site is deserving of a link?!
http://www.sexymsp.com/
60: Very interesting Andrea; Benn has by many accounts ran an anonymous campaign so far so that is a spectuclar score for him, and not good for Cruddas or Blears.
And 5% of Labour members want Charles Clarke as Prime Minister? *shudder*
761 Probably because we have discussed it on the previous thread or even threads .
62. Max, come on, they didn’t include Nicola Taylor-Rowan in the top 10. Nicola Sturgeon best placed than her?
http://www.alba.org.uk/images/nicolataylorrowan.jpg
What’s your opinion about this exclusion?
Salmond says Scotland can re-join the union if they vote for Independence, surely the other parts of the union would have to have a say, also doesn`t seem credible to go through all that expense.
I think, in reality once the decision is taken it will be final, to suggest otherwise is stretching it a bit too far.
Leaving the door open very slightly is a delusion, as can be seen for example with previous commenwealth countries who have gained their indepndence, none have asked to reverse, and why would they.
0/T France new poll
TNS Sofres, only pollster giving a 51/49 split this week has published its new poll :
sakozy 52 (+1)
royal 48 (-1)
Meanwhile the daily Ipsos is stable at 52,5 / 47,5
63 Careful, tpfkar.
I’m not saying Benn won’t win, but the selection procedure involves three very different constituencies - PLP, Party Members and the Trade Unions. Naturally candidates vary in their appeal to each. The Times poll could be misleading for anybody who does not understand that and fails to adjust accordingly.
67 Glad to see the Pollsters are coming together, CfP, even if the candidates aren’t!
65 Wow, Andrea - you look gorgeous in black!
70. Thanks, Peter. Next time I would like to wear something sober, like fuchsia though
Salmond says Scotland can re-join the union if they vote for Independence, surely the other parts of the union would have to have a say, also doesn`t seem credible to go through all that expense.
Leaving and coming back would surely result in a far, far inferior financial deal for Scotland than it gets at the moment. But of course Salmond knows perfectly well that independence is irreversible.
66. You can find plenty of ordinary people in parts of Africa that wish the British were still in charge. Their corrupt leaders have a different opinion of course.
61 & 64. Is there any sign of the BBC or other newspapers covering it at all. I would have thought that BBC should be informing people about what is going on and warning them not to answer the door or let Labour canvassers into their house in case they try to steal or tamper with their postal votes.
74 - just as the local police should be warning about fraudsters knocking on the door for the purposes of committing a criminal offence, as much as they would if a gang were talking their way into people’s homes to steal their jewellery.
Seems the Observer have decided they are a Labour paper again! A flattering piece on Gordon by Andrew Rawnsley…… a rather nice leader on Tony Blair’s ten glorious years….. a front page hatchet job on Yates of the Yard……. and another stunt by Cameron amusingly pulled apart by Victoria Coren!
http://observer.guardian.co.uk/7days/story/0,,2067930,00.html
76 that’s comforting news, I don’t like it when the press doesn’t do its job of pandering to its readers’ prejudices.
77. More a case of not kicking someone when they’re down!
OT: 300,000 on a march to defend secularism in Turkey. Would we get that turnout here to protest against a devout religious believer becoming PM?
Roger the fantasist, I would be interested to hear your projections for seats won/lost on Thursday. Will it be 4 or 5 figure gains for Labour?!
78 Down but are they been counted out, hope your man Brown, is like Ali v Foreman taking all the punches on the ropes but ready to bounce off, for the knock out blows.
We will see soon in June.
81. Dez. Andrew Rawnsley thinks he’s likely to do very well when he becomes leader. He eats drinks and sleeps politics. No leader has ever prepared longer or harder for this roll and he’s not only facing one of the most inexperienced politicians to have led a Party but one who falls flat on his face every time he gets involved in policy.
The futures bright. The futures Brown!
This vote snatching in Leeds is worrying - Labour are a very corrupt party. No wonder they did not want to withdrawl the postal votes.
Mind you they seem to think they are above the law anyway! Cash for peerages, illegal wars, corruption inquiries etc. etc. I suppose for labour party members stealing peoples votes is pretty small beer and of course labour are always right!!! Maybe it’s a new type of Nanny state, where the Labour party not only tells you how to vote but does it for you!!! Genius!!!!!!!
The thing i want to know are any Labour MP’s encouraging this practise / turning a blind eye or activiley involved in it.
I think though that Labour have just been trying to delay the inevitable and will suffer a very harsh fate at some stage!
82. Should that not be: the futures shite - the futures Brown?
82,
Roger I don`t think his opponents underestimate him, thats why they they are hitting him hard, hoping to do lasting damage before he takes over and can fight back with the kudos of being a new PM.
They know then the rules and perception changes in the mind of the non alligned public, whatever they say now.
http://iaindale.blogspot.com/2007/04/hazel-goes-nuts-after-online-shop-is.html#links
Hazel Blears campaign shop could be linked to death factory in Bangladesh. Oh my god.
84. “The thing i want to know are any Labour MP’s encouraging this practise”
I’m sure all Labour MP’s are Martin. Why wouldn’t Labour MP’s commit a criminal offense? They probably rob banks at the week-ends and sell crack cocaine in the evenings as well.
It still amuses me Labour folk going on about Cameron and policies - No opposition seriously competing for government ever publishes policies so early on in a parliament - if they want to stand a chance of winning the next election. To do so would be counterproductive politically - it just gives the government time to attack them using the government machine! All an opposition needs to do at this stage is push the chair away from under the Labour party to enable a swift hanging!!!
God i must be getting old as the tories used to say that (Policies) about Labour pre - 1997!!!
In essence an opposition takes the good ways of government that all governments tend to have (Because it’s the centre ground) and chop away at the deficiancies.
The government may also implement the said policies before the opposition get’s a chance to do so. If Labour - keep going on about the tories lacking substance (Policies) the tories can just as easily say - we will give the electorate a program for government - when you call an election! After all Brown’s mandate will be rightly or wrongly questioned if he is just installed.
87. LOL :LOL:
You obviously know soething we don’t?
Interestingly Rawnsley said in his article that the British public tend to be very fair to new Prime Ministers and are likely to give him a reasonable time before they start making judgements. It’s all in his own hands. If he does well the public will respect him. But until he settles in they’ll give him the benefit of the doubt.
No-one seems to have report on this site the latest Ipsos/Mori poll quoted in todays Observer (page
Tories 38% (-3%) Labour 31% (-2%) LibDem 20% (+3%) Others (not stated but presumably 11%). Comments - “lowesr labour position since 1987″ Seems to support other polls this week of decline in Tory vote, increase in LibDem vote
91 should have said page 8
Andrew Smith’s rousing ‘……..our air is not for sale!’ 1996 conference remark still makes me chuckle and sums up ten years of ‘Labour government’(sic) for me.
That was then, this is now……….
76 & 82
A flattering piece on Gordon by Andrew Rawnsley…… ‘
Does anyone still take seriously what that pompous public schoolboy says?
‘The futures bright. The futures Brown!
Brown trousers quite possibly!
91 Clearly not many Observer readers on here .
90. I don’t think though that there has ever been a situation before where somebody as well known as Brown and more importantly as unpopular as Brown has been installed mid - parlaiment.
I think only James Callaghan in 1976 had been in politics and well known for a comparitable period of time as Brown. I don’t think home in the 60’s and Macmillan in the 50’s were so well known - they had fairly rapid assents as did John Major.
Brown in contrast has been a co-chairman of Labour Govt PLC - that is his problem. Unlike Callaghan though Labour will have been continously in office for a long time. Labour of course were out of office between 70 and 74. We all read into things trends we assume to be correct but time will tell!
91. Even though it’s MORI, that does confirm the trend we’ve seen elsewhere.
It’s bad news for the Tories that they can’t sustain a large lead and bad news for Labour that they keep slipping lower and lower. It’s good news for the Lib Dems, but they’re still below 2005 levels.
97. It’s the same sort of poll numbers we have seen for the last 6 months or so within the margin of error! Things are not going to change much until Labour get a heavy defeat next week or Brown takes over. Unless of course there is a terror attack or some disaster.
91. The Lib Dems seem to be doing well. Maybe the futures Brown and Orange?
94. “Does anyone still take seriously what that pompous public schoolboy says”
Who said the day’s of the class warrior were dead!
Somewhat O/T
After a solid day canvassing I am extremely pleased but also somewhat sceptical about how well the Lib Dems are doing in the South East (Ashford and Canterbury in particular). Despite this, the Tories we meet also seem pretty sure of themselves. The electorate we are speaking in every single one of our target wards are putting us ahead of the Tories (sometimes by 15% plus).
Clearly we can both be in the right.
Is there some major push that Conservative Central Office has undertaken that we local Lib Dems might not be aware of.
Our canvass data, as a general rule, offers a good guide. Our results thus far though seem too good.
Whoops, sorry, speaking “to” that should be
100.”Clearly we can both be in the right”
bloody liar voters?!
100. I think that people are just telling you what they think you want to hear! So you are right to be sceptical. Political parties have a very low level of public appreciation at this time!
Martin Day (and sometimes others) continually say “all within the margin of error” - while this may be true when comparing changes in one poll when a series of polls show the same trend ( as have the latest four) then the margin of error is decreased by a factor of square root of four i.e. 2 so 3% msrgin of error is just 1.5% when one does a “poll of polls”
104. That’s a poll of poll you are doing really! I see what your saying. I think you are talking about the LD figure - where as i was thing about the important parties - Labour and Tories 8(
105 No the margin of error for all the parties will be halved if you have a sample (all 4 recent polls averaged) compared to any single one of them -your swipe at the LIBDEMs perhaps belies your mathematical ignorance and partizanship rather than taking a rational stance
100 - we are getting some good canvass results too, but I don’t believe them.
Tabman, Chris Took -canvass returns need to be taken with a pinch of salt but if using standard canvass sheets and standard analysis (richmond formula for LIBDEMs) are remarkably resilient
108 - we use a local formula that is more pessimistic than Richmond. Richmond formula results are even better!
107 - Are you standing again, Tabman?
110 - in a black hole, so there’s not much of me visible
110, in other words, I’m not expecting to trouble the counters too much.
111/112 - I see. I would wish you good luck, but that would be rather disingenuous of me.
98. The Tories rise up to the low 40s… and then fall back into the high 30s. I won’t say that polling so high is a bad thing; it’s not. On the other hand, if the Tories really have an insurmountable lead, they should be able to stay in the low 40s rather than tumbling around.
I’m using Richmond (some colleagues are using the Camden formula which is slightly more pessimistic). In both I am finding a Lib Dem lead in every single target ward. It was not like this four years ago. Four years ago we pretty much got the prediction right, we lost where we thought we would and we won where we thought we would. This year though, bearing in mind our canvas numbers in Canterbury and Ashford combined are around 10,000 people, we are doing better than 4 years ago.
I would love it to be true but perhaps Conservative Central Office has advised identified Tories to tell Lib Dem canvassers “we are voting Lib Dem.” That seems to be a logical explanation.
(The alternative is we are doing far better than the polls suggest and Friday will be a full on gloating session
)
I also expect not to trouble the counters much.
I fear these Scottish polls look a lot like the 1992 General election polls, I think there is a colelctive holding of breath this weekend. There are a group of voters who could go either way, both in Scotland and England. I think Labour will either do a fair bit better than expected, or meltdown on Thursday. Either way I am expecting some shock results.
62, lol, love that, notice you have to go to the girl ranked number 26 to find the most attractive Labour woman. They are obviously struggling for Labour totty in Scotland, lol.
104, 106,
With the Margin of Error thing -
My layman’s understanding is that the sampling error is normally distributed, with (as standard) 95% chance of the true value being within 3% of the quoted value.
Does this mean that you can regard it as 2 standard deviations = 3%; ie one standard deviation = 1.5%.
If so, the chances of 2 consecutive polls being both outside one standard deviation (greater than 1.5% out) would be (1-0.6827) x (1-0.6827) expressed as a percentage (in this case, 10%).
With 3 consecutive polls, it would be 3.2% (less than the 5% allowed for under margin of error; a 96.8% confidence rather than the standard 1-poll 95% confidence), with 4 it would be 1% (ie, 99% confidence that it’s within 1.5% of the true value).
So if there has been a 3% fall in 4 consecutive polls (taking relative movement to eliminate systematic errors), the chances of it being margin-of-error fluctuations are pretty small (5% to the power of 4 = 1/160,000; 0.000625%). The effective “margin of error” (assuming “margin of error equates to 95% confidence) would be less than 1.5%.
If I’m in error here, I’d appreciate a polling expert correcting me; this is just deductions from assuming a normal (Gaussian) distribution.
113 You show a misplaced sense of loyalties, AHM. It should be PB first, Party next.
I think you can do this analysis more accurate with a standard statistical test for sampling distributions - but what you do looks a decent order of magnitude estimate to me of the probability that the share has actually remained unchanged.
May I wish Tabman a shock victory (or would that be extremely unwelcome?).
So, back to the Scottish parliament…who’s everyone’s favourite (f) MSP?
This is my personal fav;
http://www.sexymsp.com/index.php?s=f&show=view&PHPSESSID=55def448090aafd8a949d5b057b0b5b9&sr=12&pp=1&cp=13
She scores quite highly too.. shurely this site has been rigged by scot nats? DIRTY TRICKS!
119 - On the contrary, Peter, I heartily wish all PBers well in their political endeavours - so long as they are Tories.
119, It should be PB first, Party next. ”
Absolutely, Peter.
So recap of pb.comers standing
Rik Willis, Reading-Peppard
SBS, Reading- Minster
Benedict White, Mid Sussex-Ashenground
Antony Wells, Dartford-West Hill
Chris Took, somewhere in Ashford
Tabman, Russhcliffe-Abbey
anyone else?
123 -….And a reasonably creditable second-place for those who aren’t.
125 - I think second place is very unlikely for me too. But thanks anyway!
124 - “Somewhere” - that’s an interesting ward.
96. Anthony Eden was well known, celebrated even, when he became PM in 1955. Went wrong for him pretty quickly unfortunately.
124 Aren’t HamiltonNat and Afleitch (?) standing for the same seat in the Scottish locals ?
61 - Barry - The reason is that opinion polls have now become more important than real polls to many people. Letters will be written complaining in no uncertain terms about the sheer audacity of the opinion poll companies for failure to comply with proceedures. As for real votes, by real people to choose real candidates, well that is not worth mentioning. Here we are in the double-speak, inside-out world of 1984 and hardly anyone gives a damn. Democracy is just an illusion and we won’t have any way of knowing if elections are stolen or not. The silence from Labour MPs is a conspiracy of silence. Some will frequently comment on opinion polls, but the erosion of freedom and democracy that millions died for is simply of no importance. What an ugly world they are creating.
129 - And presumably because of STV they could both be elected. All shall play, and all shall have prizes!
124. Andrea.
What about Nick Palmer, Broxtowe MP for Prime Minister?!
132 - Thanks for the warning; I shall get to work on my emigration papers immediately.
124. I like standing for ’somewhere.’ As the parliamentary candidate also I guess I’m also ‘everywhere’ in Ashford.
The ward I’m standing in is called Singleton South.
82, Roger, I am pleased that Brown is preparing for his roll; does that leave him any time for his role?
So much for education under Nu-Labour.
130, keep fighting the good fight; I will be
133.” I shall get to work on my emigration papers immediately”
Alastair, come here!
134. Thanks, sorry,
I just googled “Afleitch” to find the constituency for Andrea, and instead noticed on the first page that “Afleitch” already has some interesting memberships ;). I wonder if this in his election address……….
re 124. Not quite a PB-er but my wife Jacky is standing for Turvey for Bedford Borough Council for the LDs.
All meant tongue in cheek Andrea - no apology needed.
I would say that PB’s could start their own party but I think we’d struggle to present a united and coherent agenda!
Andrea… East Devon, Coly Valley.
137. But would it be a vote winner?
124 - As an occasional contributor, Andrea, I’m standing as well. Worthing-Selden, hoping to be re-elected (four more years!)
And Chris, Tabman, our LibDem canvassing in Worthing mirrors your experiences; surprisingly good even where we weren’t expecting it. I don’t believe it either, yet
142. South East Set for Lib Dem Political Earthquake
(well, we did have one on Saturday after all)
137 - try Hamilton North & East on South Lanarkshire Council
137. Atlas Forum?
138. Mike, wives count too
139. Chris, it’s a broad church
Good luck to all those standing, brave men and women all to stand up for their beliefs.
After months of resisting the wall of self promotion, the news of his candidature caused me to look at Benedict’s blog…. All i can say is I would think he had more chance of appealing to the Sussex voters of he could spell LewEs.
Interesting but completely unsurprising stuff about misleading campaign literature, of which i’m sure all parties are guilty. I have had a leaflet from all 3 parties this week (I think that’s a first). Each one is similar (We are/will be great, the others are uselss/incompetent/wasters), and all make statements it would be impossible to disagree with (”we would run the leisure centre better” etc) All are absolutely useless in helping a voter make a choice however. So I fall back on minor points.
The Labour one is badly photocopied and the only one in black and white - lame.
The Lib Dem one has pictures of the candidates, which is, and you may call me harsh, a major own goal. I’m sure their mothers love them….
The tory one is good as far as it goes but bland. It’s also the one which hurls the least abuse. On the whole though, I was probably more likely to vote before I read these things and gave it any thought, i’m really not very enthused about backing any of them with an X in the box now. If I do vote it will be for national type reasons, and giving Tony Blair a kick up the backside on his way out the door is a pretty good one come to think of it.
140/42. Thanks.
Libdems are endging over the tories here. Still no Labour pb.comer standing
144 That’s the one I think. Thanks Marcia.
141 Chris hahaha perhaps it would be !
O/T. Returning to a familiar theme, I just wonder if there is a further twist in the tale regarding the Labour leadership election?
I take a risk suggesting improbable events on PBC, that I will be grouped with the likes of Will L et al. Will L posts here regularly and to the best of my knowledge is almost invariably wrong! Roger is maligned as the most erroneous poster on this site. Will L has overleaped him by some distance. There is a real danger that Will L will actually soon get something right. He predicts an SNP victory next week and a Labour meltdown in Scotland. So, although I agree that an SNP victory is likely, because Will L predicts it I am becoming doubtful.
Returning to the Labour leadership, I just wonder after the local elections if the Labour Party will finally wake up and smell the coffee. Leaving aside my own betting positions, which are quite positve with a Brown victory, I am deeply depressed with the prospect of a Brown Premiership. And having spoken recently to a few labour party member friends, there is some shared anger that we are unlikely to be offered a real choice regarding our next leader and also much shared pessimism with our Hobson’s choice of a future leader.
138. Good luck Jacky Smithson. You would get my vote!
137.
I’m aware of the Google problem. Unfortunately there is another who uses that name, but as I’ve used it since abouit 2002, I’m not going to change it!
146 - perhaps all those PBers standing should put up a sample of their election literature and let the neutrals tell us what they think!
Mine can be seen at:
http://www.republicofheaven.org.uk/jamesdoyle/2007_focus_1_selden.pdf
and
http://www.republicofheaven.org.uk/jamesdoyle/2007_focus_2_selden.pdf
153 - If I find out how to host a PDF file, I’ll dig out my first leaflet.
Deputy leadership: Hilary Benn is clearly a strong candidate if he gets on the ballot, but that’s a bit doubtful as he has more limited PLP support. I still think it will come down to Johnson vs Hain in the last ballot.
To respond to queries on the last thread:
- Yes, of course I condemn any kind of distortion of the electoral system. I don’t know anything about anyone in the Sunday Times allegations so can’t comment sensibly on them - if the law has been broken, prosecutions will presumably follow.
- Predicting the Broxtowe result is difficult as several wards are very marginal. The Tories hope to gain overall control with up to 10 gains; the LibDems hope to become largest party with up to 8 gains; we hope to hold on and pick off a few gains too. The BNP hope to win Brinsley off us, with a candidate who amusingly is also standing for Lothians in the Scottish Parliament! Continuing No Overall Control seems the most likely outcome to me, and some trading of gains and losses - I’ll be surprised if the Tories make it to control. Nottingham Labour is also confident of fending the Tories off. I won’t hazard a guess about elsewhere - colleagues are varying widely in their predictions from “seems OK though I don’t quite trust it” to “aargh!”. The general view is that things have got a little better in the last week, though.
113 - no need, AHM. To get a handle on my likelihood of winning read Jasper Gerrard’s experiences in Kent: http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/story/0,,2068179,00.html
121 - lol. It would be rather a shock.
153 why May 3, should it not be 3rd May? One of my pet hates!
150
stjohn you really are a shit. Don’t harrass other posters because you disagree with them. Post you own view and prove it better. Vermin like stjohn should be barred from this site.
To my reading Will L has got far more right than you st john, and has come up with more original contribution than most!
Most importantly Will L has made me a lot of money. I can now cash in my SNP position for a huge profit! That is the whole point of this site.
45.Hi Max, only party out delivering leaflets by hand or knocking on doors in my neck of the woods has been the tories, although I see our prospective tory MSP was briefly heading the list of sexyMSP’s before the SNP bloggers discovered the site.
I have not been able to get involved delivering leaflets etc for the first time in years due to a family illness, I am spending a lot of time in StephenB’s constituency as a result.
I honestly think that this election is going to be tough to call regardless of what the polls say, it has a very volatile atmosphere surrounding it and I think people from all parties are almost holding their breath. It could end up with normal service and Labour hanging on, or it could be a whole new political landscape.
159.
Theres something in the air, but I don’t know what. Truth be told I don’t expect either Labour of the SNP to break the 40 seat mark and I expect a few minor parties to sneak someone in; hopefully not the Scottish Christian Party though.
160 - I was amazed to see how many posters the Christian party had up in Glasgow. I can’t see them getting too many votes though. I did see that their leaders claim to fame was that he wrote ‘So Macho’. So not all bad then!
159 - Chris having had a look at that site I’m seriously considering voting Green. Ruth Cameron strikes me as a first class candidate!
160.Months ago I would have predicted a low key election campaign, a drop in turnout with Labour and Libdems down a bit and SNP and tories up a bit and the dynamic duo continuing in coalition for another 4 years. Now will the Labour core vote turnout for them as the tory voters did for John Major in 92′ or will we see tactical voting boosting the SNP and making them the largest party?
As for the Christian Party, have they got an army of activists running round Scotland because their posters are everywhere?
161. But Max has she got the political manifesto to make a dyed in the wool tory change their spots?
158: vermin? Begone, Creature!
150. Robert Cullen. Not very friendly!
Sorry you disagree with my analysis of Will L. To describe it has harrassing him is a bit of a stretch from what I said. Also not quite sure how I deserved the opprobrium heaped upon me in your first paragraph.
Glad to hear you are making money following Will L’s advice. I intend to do the same. But by betting against his views in future.
163. Thanks Nick Palmer.
But expanding my point at 150 to the Deputy Leadership. The Labour PLP are likely to deny us either a proper choice or else any choice of our next leader and PM. Are we also to be denied the option of voting for the most popular grass roots candidate for Deputy PM?
Please give us a proper vote!
Robert Cullen is yet another name for Will L. Odds of 1000 to 1 on.
Just how stupid does he think we are?