How will Labour do on Thursday?
April 29th, 2007
How well can the PBC community predict the elections?
William Hill has betting markets up on the party seat totals for the Welsh Assembly and the Scottish Parliament. Betfair makes the SNP 0.31/1 favourite to pick up most seats in Scotland with Labour on 2.35/1. In Wales Labour are the 1/20 favourite to win most Assembly seats. The Tories are now second favourites on 15/2.
Mike Smithson
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Gone for: 36-40 ; 24-26 and 451-600
Seems so have most so far too
Most think 36-40 seats for Labour in Scotland? There’s no way.
3. No way in which way? Do you think 36-40 is too few or too many?
Too many. Unless the other parties suffer a complete collapse, Labour and the SNP are both going to be in the late twenties or early thirties. I suspect that if either of them pass 32 or 33, they’ll win.
Labour to loose Welsh Assembly Mmembers in Aberconwy, Clwyd West, Preseli, Llanelli and Cardiff North.
Could be close finishes in Carmarthen West, Vale of Glamorgan, Delyn and Caerphilly.
They may pick up regional list members in North Wales and Mid/West Wales.
Total 24 or 25 seats.
5. But Greens and SSP are widely expected to fall from 7 and 6 seats to perhaps 2 and 0 (or even 9 and 1 if they do well), but that would still be a reduction for Greens and SSP. And in 2003, Lab and SNP got 76 seats I think; if Lab and SNP are left with only (say) 32 each, then that leaves a significant increae in seats for Lib Dem and Con (up c.12 to 20?)
Have we had these details before, in todays Scotland on Sunday
“The new YouGov poll, commissioned by the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC), gives the SNP an eight point lead over Labour in the constituency vote, and a five point lead in the regional list vote.
Analysis by Professor John Curtice of Strathclyde University shows that, if the swing is uniform across the country, the SNP will win 46 seats to Labour’s 40. The Conservatives and the Liberals would get 18 each, with the Greens on five and others two.
Have you seen the story in the Times about Labour falling off the vote-rigging wagon in Leeds. They are pretty severe allegations.
Interesting that the Tories seem to be doing better than expected in Wales, even if not making much progress in Scotland. Maybe I’m being stereotypical, but I wouldn’t have thought Wales would respond much to the Cameron approach - and progress here could help answer the lingering doubts over whether Cameron can improve the Tories’ fortunes north of the Trent.
Labour could gain 500 seats if they repeat these tactics across England!
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/article1719968.ece
10 It depends on what the Tories expectations are in Wales. They will probably pick up the odd seat but are unlikely to gain much in the popular vote.
I think that Labour will do very poorly in England. However, I have a feeling that they may just be the biggest party in Scotland. That thought depresses me. I think there is value in the price.
YouGov’s superpoll (sample size=1800) is out. YouGov were the most accurate pollster at the last Scottish Parliament election in 2003.
“8% Lead for Nationalists - 10% swing to Salmond - 20% of Labour seats lost”
“Labour’s grip on Scotland appeared to be slipping away last night after a new superpoll found the party was set to lose an election in the country for the first time in half a century.”
http://www.sundayherald.com/news/heraldnews/display.var.1362947.0.0.php
“Jack McConnell has issued a desperate plea to Tory and Liberal voters, urging them to vote tactically for Labour to stave off an SNP victory in Thursday’s Holyrood election.”
“In a clear indication of the meltdown facing his party, the First Minister said Conservative and Lib Dem supporters should back him as the “only way” to stop Alex Salmond.”
“McConnell also launched an outspoken attack on the Lib Dems, Labour’s former coalition partners… “
http://scotlandonsunday.scotsman.com/index.cfm?id=660002007
Food for poll addicts in different contexts in
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/article1720004.ece
14 - Stuart, of the four main parties in Scotland, which is perceived by you or the electorate as the most unionist?
I’ve gone for 46-50, 27-30, and 301-450.
Obviously, I’d love to see Labour do far, far worse than that though.
““Jack McConnell has issued a desperate plea to Tory and Liberal voters, urging them to vote tactically for Labour to stave off an SNP victory in Thursday’s Holyrood election.” ”
Desperate stuff by McConnell. I imagine quite a few LD voters wouldn’t mind seeing Salmond as FM with an agreement, either formal or informal with the LDs. And vote tactically? Is that in the FPTP or the list part of the ballot…
Perhaps my hunch above about Labour not being in so much trouble is totally wrong.
16. SBS - “of the four main parties in Scotland, which is perceived by you or the electorate as the most unionist?”
Well, “of the four main parties” we can very safely say that it is not the Scottish National Party!!!
By me: Liberal Democrats - for several reasons, which I may expand on after breakfast
By the electorate: who knows? - but an interesting question! - Labour is the de facto bastion upon which the Union depends, but I suspect that the specific word “Unionist” is most strongly associated with the Scottish Conservatives, in the mind of the average Donald on the Dumbiedykes omnibus…
19 - very interesting answer. Exactly what I expected. And I agree with every word. Thanks.
Interesting that just two years ago their was only one show in town and now they’re predicting Labour meltdown! I would point the finger at Prescott and Blair simple as that. And I’m not sure in which order.
Prescott’s sleazy behaviour followed by his unwillingness to resign made his office look like a sinecure. This fed the idea that maybe Labour were in it for themselves. So when Yates started his inquiry it wasn’t treated as the joke it would have been.
By coincidence Blair made the biggest mistake of his Prime Ministership at exactly the same moment when he sided with the US and Israel in the insane bombing of Lebanon. Even those Labour supporters who had though Iraq a noble fight now realized they’d been had. And as the party moved away from him he moved away from them. Trident, Saudi arms, Cabinet appointments…the man had gone mad!
The hope for the future is that these two are going next week. The other good news is that Cameron is probably less able than Howard.
I love this Sunday Mirror report about Labour election troubles. They try to present it as they got the info from some serious sources until you read the following line:
“One senior minister said: “The Tories aren’t doing well in the North, but we reckon we could suffer big losses against the Lib Dems in the South, especially London.”
http://www.sundaymirror.co.uk/news/sunday/tm_headline=exclusive–labour-face-600-seat-loss&method=full&objectid=18983116&siteid=98487-name_page.html
yes, big losses in london where they don’t even vote….you didn’t make up, didn’t you?
Roger - I largely agree about Prescott. He has been a dreadful cabinet minister, but until 2 years ago he had been a brilliant Labour deputy leader, holding the coalition all together.
As Prescott’s own private life unravelled, so has the party as a whole. I fully expected him to stand down as deputy leader in 2005, shortly after the election, citing health problems. (He is diabetic, and also much older than he looks.)
The pb.com Interior Minister can announce the partial result at mid-morning
1 question:
Turnout: 103
1 place: it’s neck and neck between 36-40 and 41-45
2 question
Turnout: 90
1 place: 24-26 seats
3 question
Turnout: 96
1 place: 451-600
22 - I suspect a senior minister did say that… but either
it was last year
or it was one of the less bright ministers
The Tories now 2nd inwales. Interesting. How much money matched I wonder.
Ive gone for 36-40,24-26,640-750.
Todays Sunday Telegraph has details of ther Newsnight forecast fro the Locals in engalnd.Like last year it is based on the analysis by Threshae & Ralings of recent byelection results(and therfore a chance sample)the same basis a slast year.
The forecast is Labour- Share 24% Losses 500
Cons-Share 38%,gains 330.
Lib dems -Share29%,Gains 110.
Last tear using a similar method,Threshae and rawlings underestimated Tory performance,overestimated Lib Dem and Labour seat changes.
I would expect that bias to be repeated this year(same method basedon unrepresenative byelections)and would therfore expect.
Shares as calculated by BBC bas-ed on sample of 3 party contests
Con 40% +,Lab 23%,Lib 27%.
Seat changes Lab -750,Con 800+,Lib-100+.
Roger H
17. 27-30! Bloody hell tell Rhodri to crack open the Champagne now. THey won 30 in 2003 when they won every seat they conceivably could with Baghdad just fallen. No one in Wales thinks they can get more than 26 even with list compensation.
15 From the Times article:
“In a further sign that Labour is losing its grip on Scotland, Nicol Stephen, the Lib Dem leader and potential kingmaker of the next Scottish executive, has said he is ready to abandon Labour after eight years in coalition and side with the SNP. He said if the SNP were the largest party on May 4 he would enter talks with it first rather than sticking with Labour.”
Oh, how we love those principled Lib Dems. At least we can be confident that the flip-flop has everything to do with policy and nothing at all to do with electoral opportunism.
7. and 5. I think my wording was slightly squidgellated. But to put it another way, the largest party (SNP or Labour) on 33 would allow for 32 each for the other three main parties, i.e. 33-32-32-32-0. Does 5. mean that you are expecting loads of seats for the Greens and independents etc. (e.g. 32-30-22-18-12-6-9)?
27. rogerh - “The forecast is Labour- Share 24% Losses 500″ (England only)
Well, you can add approx 180-200 to that figure for Labour losses in Scotland (about 100 due to move to STV voting system, plus about 100 due to loss of support). Plus, are there not also council elections in Wales on Thursday?
Summary: it is going to be a bleak, bleak day on Thursday for Labour throughout the whole of Great Britain.
Andrea - Probably quite true - Ministers become detached from the grass roots - they probably don’t know what is going on - or care!
Anyway off to make ploughmans lunches for 50 at Cricket Club - National Knock Out today - just like the Archers!
26 Punter - we’ve been quietly expecting that outcome for quite some time, despite the Plaid ramping of Penddu and others on here.
The key determinant on Thursday is going to be the level of Labour stay-at-homes and turnout of Tory vote. There are some but not masses of straight switchers around, and independents in a number of seats make that all the more the case.
There are a number of anti-devolution conservative voters who have stayed at home in the past 2 Assembly elections, who are showing signs of turning out this time. Added to that the level of depression of Labour core vote, and the occasional strong Plaid showing, and Thursday could be very very bad for Labour in Wales. It will be partly offset by the regional top up - but Labour votes there could be going anywhere, so it is by far from certain that constituency losses for Labour will be made up by regional top up.
31 - no council elections in Wales next week - all out elections next year.
30. JohnLooney
I did not want to be rude, but when I read Colin’s remarks at 3 & 5 (note: had he been to bed yet? - it was in the middle of the night) I did wonder what planet he was on!
Re 29 If Stephen had said that he would go in coalition with Labour, even if they would finish 2nd, you probably would have attacked him for this.
As someone living in a country were coalitions are the norm, not the exception: There is no principle involved in choosing your coalition partner. The exception being not going in to coalition with the BNP.
I expect every party to go into coalition with the party/parties with whom they can expect to achieve the most of their aims. Apart from the independence-issue, the Lib Dems and the SNP are probably as close as are Labour and the Lib Dems. In that circumstance, there is something to be said to first talk with the largest party. If those talks fail and Labour and Lib Dems have a majority, why not try. In this country, coalition talks have failed, thus bringing other parties to the table
OTOH, if the Lib Dems were to announce before the election that they would first talk to Labour if those parties would have a majority, there is nothing undemocratic in that.
In this country, coalitions are so much the prefered form of government, that even in that small number of cases in the local elections of 2002 and 2006 that one party achieved a majority of seats on the local authority, they chose to take a partner.
33. Expecting what result Labour on 26. As things stand I think this the “best case” scenario for them. Plaid will have some strong shows no doubt. As the Speccie saiud people are reaching for trhe nearest and strongest stick to beat Labour with, and in some constituencies in Wales that inevitably means Plaid. How do you see the Conservatives at present. If I could find a bookie to offer me odds on Cameron posing for pictures with his new AMs outside the SEnedd before next Sunday I’d bit his hand off I think.
35. Er… I haven’t been to bed yet. I’m completely out of sync at the moment with my waking/sleeping hours. I think that’s why I was a bit squaggly at 7.
Maybe the SLP will win all the additional/list seats…
In his high profile SoS column Arch-High-Tory Gerald Warner (Michael Forsyth’s old right-hand-man) tells Scottish tories to get out and vote…… Labour! They will be choking on their cornflakes in Barnton and Colinton this morning!
Tory! Tory! Tory! You must hold your nose and vote Labour
http://scotlandonsunday.scotsman.com/opinion.cfm?id=660132007
I’ve gone for 41-45, 24-26, and a net loss of 751+.
Of course, if every Labour party is following the example set by their leader in Leeds, the outcome may be different.
I’m still staggered that Labour poll anything, that any sane and thining member of the electorate can vote for a foetid government and a corrupt Labour Party. Stick that in you pipe Nick Palmer MP and smoke that!
40. How can there not be more comment about the criminality in Leeds? Labour leader of the council group instructing illegal pressure and collection of postal ballots from the elderly, fill them in “Labour” and post them?
Labour activists wanting to collect LibDem postal votes and “flush them down the toilet”?
Nick Palmer MP will you condemn this disgusting behaviour?
Anyone know when Waller is on Doughty street.
I’d agree with the consensus (or at least the winning predictions at the time of writing) of 41-45 and 24-26 on Wales and Scotland, but still have doubts that Labour will lose all that many seats locally.
Having previously posted that the feeling towards Labour on the doorstep was ‘bloody’, I’ve now spent at least another week canvassing and I’ve had fewer comments of that nature. That might not be a very statistically meaningful sample, but there’s undoubtedly still support for Labour and that a lot of their core vote is holding up.
44. David, have you canvassed just in Bradford or also in other places?
I think that in authorities like Bradford where Lab is defending 2004 base their core vote can hold up better than in areas last up in 2003 as the starting base is lower
Just a note of a bargain on Betfair… I’ve been backing Bill Richardson for the Democrat nomination at c.25-1. He’s the candidate most likely to challenge the big 3, and thus seemed a good trading bet at those odds. Someone has just dumped £175 at 34/32 - worth a flutter if you’re convinced by my premise that he’s due a moment in the spotlight (ala Bayrou).
PS for you Stode, you should see that the Sunday Times has the big feature on the Leeds scandal and also expectations, the “benchmark” set now in the Sunday Times and on the BBC is 300 Tory gains.
I don’t know why you don’t just argue that 200 losses would be a brill result for the yellow peril. Manage those expectations down!
Labour are on 24% locally, the LDs HAVE to have large gains against them to be an electoral force
29. The Scots Lib Dems’ antics are a perfect example of why PR should be opposed. Opportunistically flip-flopping between partners, exercising power without responsibility…
45. No, just in Bradford - and you’re right about the 2003/2004 split (though that’s still quite a few seats as it’s all the Mets). And Bradford is a bit of a funny place politically, so I wouldn’t draw too many general conclusions from one area. Still, I thought it was worth mentioning before getting overly carried away with the possibility of 750+, 1000+ or even higher thresholds.
“Nick Palmer MP will you condemn this disgusting behaviour?”
This posturing is getting boring. If people condemned on the say-so of one Sunday Times reporter then by same token Baron Ashcroft of Belize would be in Jail on drugs charges! You condemn what you want and leave others to do likewise.
I heard on the radio that the Tories are now only 5% ahead of Labour in an ICM poll for the NoW and Brown had not only narrowed the gap to 5 points against Cameron but had now moved ahead of Blair. No wonder Tories are scurrying through the bins in the car-parks of Yorkshire!
49.”Still, I thought it was worth mentioning before getting overly carried away with the possibility of 750+, 1000+ or even higher thresholds”
before tonight we should reach the “Labour will lose every seat contested” level. It’s a must
50. Roger you are mental. The Sunday Times has published an actual transcript of the councillors talking to their canvassers and instructing them on postal vote fraud
50. Mr Smithson has said that “better Brown” thing was a bolt on to the usual omnibus and thus completely unreliable. Still you must be right. GB is actually really popular.
ICM / News of the World poll of English voters:
“Support for Scottish independence is much higher among the English than the Scots, a poll showed Sunday, as Scots nationalists geared up for elections to the Scottish parliament this week.”
“An ICM poll published in the News of the World showed that 56 percent of the English surveyed believe it is now time to end the 300-year-old union, compared to 41 percent among Scots.”
“The ICM poll said a majority of English also oppose higher spending on Scots households and votes for Scots MPs on English-only issues.”
http://www.thecep.org.uk/news/Comments.asp?Entry=1559
Are you still absolutely certain that the West Lothian Question is still not an issue Nick Palmer MP et al?
Hold onto yer breeks Gordie…
Thanks for the poll Mike. It’s interesting to see where the PB consensus is. I went for the second worst option in all cases, so for Scotland, Labour to hold 31-35, Welsh, 21-23 and councils to lose between 601 and 750 seats.
All those options seem popular but not as popular as the next least worse option. Most of the votes are for the second and third worst option for Labour.
53. How “Mr Smithson” can know this is a mystery? I can’t find details anywhere! Nonetheless even if it is a bolt on question and shouldn’t be compared to other polls it surely is reliable when taken on its own? And it puts Brown ahead of Blair and within 5% of Cameron.
55. Why do you think 21-23 in Wales. I’m still thinking 24, if they dip to that range it’ll be only by a razor thin margin in a few seats at present.
BTW When can we expect Dave to do his photo ops with his New AMs.
53, because unlike regular voting intention polls, no attempt was made to find a politically balanced sample therefore it is not of any value - more like raw unweighted data
An *unweighted* lead of 5% should terrify you
The above to Roger at 56, sorry
Was listening to the ‘SundayLive’ programme on Radio Scotland and in addition to the Sunday Herald, The Sunday Times here is Scotland has endorsed the SNP. Can’t see the link online to the article yet.
58. I must be stupid but how would ‘weighting’ affect a Blair/Brown question?
Re 25, SBS, re your comment on the Sunday Mirror article, “or it was one of the less bright ministers”
That does not exactly exclude many people does it?
61. ‘I must be stupid’…from the horse’s mouth…
61 It would affect the size of Cameron’s lead over Brown, Roger
BBC report on the locals in the East Midlands, mentions Broxtowe
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/nottinghamshire/6596199.stm
Labour Mayor of Gedling defects to Tories
no mention of Corby - Labour for about 30 years may slip to NOC
I remember being a lone voice saying the SNP would win big just over a month ago. Other wrongly claimed they would fall behind during the campaign - I said this would not happen. And now the whole world agrees. Anyone acting on my tip when the SNP were 2.25 on William Hill will have made a fortune by Friday. Unfortunately we can only get 29% now. Still good return for just a week. Fill your boots!
Also claims that there was an ICM poll putting Brown only 5% behind the Conservatives in the News of the World have proven to be completely false. There is no such poll. The News of the World is very much getting ready to dump Labour - like all barring one Scottish newspaper. This is another desperate deception by the Labour loonies. Check it out for yourself.
http://www.newsoftheworld.co.uk/
In the Observer the most senior courtier in buckingham palace is said to have described Yates as a menace,and he is alledged to have overplayed the evidence against Burrell to get Prince William to make a complaint of theft.
No knighthood for him then, unless Cameron can overide the Royal concerns.
10. You are being sterotypical. Wales is not Scotland. London based media dominate. Even much of the news close to thw border tuned into English Regional frequencies.
Ireland to go to the polls on May 24th
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/6604919.stm
60. Marcia
Thanks. Since the Sunday Times removed its entire Scottish edition from the web a couple of months ago we have been deprived of many important articles, including the Editorials, which are always fascinating in the final editions before polling days. Bring it back please!
So:
SNP-supporting editorial pieces today:
1. Sunday Herald - “A vote for change is a leap of faith. It’s a leap this newspaper is prepared to make”
2. Sunday Times
3. SoS - “Time for a new vision” (”This newspaper has no ideological objection to independence.” - Ho ho ho… pull the other one…)
Labour-supporting:
1. Sunday Mail (I assume!)
Has anyone bought the Sunday Post, or the Scottish editions of the Mail on Sunday, Sunday Express or News of the World? If you have, please tell us how they are advising their readers to vote.
http://www.sundayherald.com/oped/opinion/display.var.1362928.0.ba_vote_for_change_is_a_leap_of_faith_its_a_leap_this_newspaper_is_prepared_to_makeb.php
http://scotlandonsunday.scotsman.com/leaders.cfm?id=659732007
66, Check what out exactly.
67. Hilarious attempt at spin.
Re: 47 - I assume you were talking to me, “toast” or whoever you are. Oh, by the way, morning all
Benchmarking, it only makes sense when you know what you are talking about. Labour have many fewer seats than the Tories in this round of elections so while I expect the LDs to make gains, the scope for these gains is limited because even at 24%, Labour will win some seats.
Now, IF the Tories were at 24%, I would be confidently talking big gains. They have many more seats in play but at 38%, gains will be that much harder. In addition, neither the LDs nor Labour are contesting the same number of seats as the Conservatives. Many hundreds of Tories have already “won” by being unopposed which I think is shameful but there you are..
In addition, the LDs are defending a lot of seats (about half our total councillor base) and, given our patchy record on holding seats compared to Labour and the Tories, we will have to make gains to offset inevitable losses. I maintain that to reach Friday evening with the same number of councillors we had on Thursday morning will be an achievement and, to be honest, I’m happy to let the Tory trolls and spinners say what they like. I believe if the Conservatives don’t reach 40% and 500 gains, they can kiss the next election goodbye. If you want benchmarks for the Tory performance, look at 1968 and 1977.
1968. Ridiculous as a benchmark unless you are expecting a devaluation of the pound before next Thursday. I agree with you on Lib Dems but you look as silly as those Tories you mention by using a year alomst forty years in the past with completely different demographics, politics and Economic situation.
Stodge
“Now, IF the Tories were at 24%, I would be confidently talking big gains. They have many more seats in play but at 38%, gains will be that much harder. In addition, neither the LDs nor Labour are contesting the same number of seats as the Conservatives. Many hundreds of Tories have already “won” by being unopposed which I think is shameful but there you are..
In addition, the LDs are defending a lot of seats (about half our total councillor base) and, given our patchy record on holding seats compared to Labour and the Tories, we will have to make gains to offset inevitable losses.”
What I am asking is why you do not apply the same standards to the Tories?
We are also *defending* vast numbers of seats here! Labour has *already* lost to us all the easy seats and easy patches. What is left is close to core vote stuff. But you want the LibDem benchmark to be zero but the Tory benchmark to be 700 gains!
Labour are at their lowest level ever. Why are you not confident that the LibDems can take many many seats from them, other than Labour defrauding you of votes?
Or is your argument basically that the LibDems have failed to break through and cannot be expected to gain at the grassroots and in the GE your best hope will be trying to clutch on to what you have. Because that is how I read what seems like expectation spinning on the face of it.
66. Will Herbert/ Will L /Herbert Proper etc.
“I remember being a lone voice”
LOL!!
42. The reason more notice hasn’t been taken of reports of Labour’s electoral fraud in Leeds, is that it hardly counts as news. Everybody knows that Labour’s love of postal voting is becauses it makes it very easy for them to commit electoral fraud, particularly among the poor working class and Asian communities.
The EU wasn’t being funny when they sent observers in to monitor our elections, they know how corrupt it has become in recent years. What I want to know is why we bother having an Electoral Commission supposedly to combat this sort of corruption and yet they sit back and do nothing.
73 Stodge, I think political betting is a kind of bubble, if you step outside for a bit you can see what broadcast and print media are setting as the standard/benchmark for the Tories to have done really well & it is much lower than you and other opponent parties are trying to lay out
10,12:
Re. 33. Interested to know why ‘we’ have been expecting for some time the Tories to finish a good second in Wales. Much of the optimism from what I could see was based on one opinion poll 3 weeks ago showing the tories second. This has now been superseded by two polls in the last 4 days (one of which was a recall poll by the same company as the one which showed the Tories second) showing Plaid clearly in second. Inevitably, Plaid spinners dismissed the first poll, and Tories have dismissed the other two, but I see no evidence that would persuade me to part with any significant money on the Tories coming second.
For what it’s worth, I think the analysis by ITV’s Denis Balsom of the latest polls, which showed the Tories losing seats (partly due to UKIP getting 5% of the list vote on an ‘abolish the assembly’ ticket), is wide of the mark. The analysis doesn’t take account of what I think will be decent Tory performances in a couple of target seats, and I certainly don’t expect them to get less than 12.
Returning to the topic of the thread, I still think the Labour performance in Wales is hard to call. The latest polls show them ‘on the brink’, where they lose 4-5 marginals, pick up a list seat in Mid & West, and possibly retake Wrexham. Any further drop, due to a failure to motivate the core vote, will see real trouble. As a Plaid supporter I would love to be able to predict a sweep through the valleys, but the special factors of 99 (council elections on the same day, background of Blair interference in Welsh Labour) aren’t there. What is there this time, though, is a number of usually safe seats where the presence of strongish independents make them unpredictable, e.g. Caerphilly and Islwyn, plus a more general anti-Labour feeling, inevitable after 10 years of government. Very tricky to predict.
10, 12: The Tories are improving in wales, but they are coming from a very low base, and are not increasing by that much. But one thing is clear is that it is their rebranding as Welsh Conservatives which has led to their recovery - Old Etonians do very little for the Welsh public.
I expect them to take a few constituencies - maybe as many as 6 - but these will all be offset by losing list seats, and I think a net gain of 3 is looking probable.
33. Today :o) Friday :0)))
80. I think the ICM poll showing higher turnout is an indicator. Given PC already turnout well for WA and that is unlikely much of an inbcrease will come from Labour, it is reasonable to extrapolate that quite a few more Tories if for no other reason than to kick Blair who previously could not be bothered will turn out on Thursday. Whether Plaid outoll the Tories has nothing to do with hopw well thye Tories do, but everything to do with how Plaid do against Labour. Having IWJ as your leader ijnstead of DW what a joke. It is of course clear the Tories are better than 2003 so Balsom is on another planet.
81. Can you list them and how you come to that.
79& 82??
73
‘In addition, the LDs are defending a lot of seats (about half our total councillor base) and, given our patchy record on holding seats compared to Labour and the Tories, we will have to make gains to offset inevitable losses. I maintain that to reach Friday evening with the same number of councillors we had on Thursday morning will be an achievement’
Yes, but the Tories and Labour are also ‘defending a lot of seats’.
However,if Labour lose a lot of seats that’s failure,also failure if the Tories don’t gain 500+ seats,but it’s an ‘achievement’ if the Lib Dems standstill!
77 - Didn’t the electoral commision strongly suggest that such ways of corrupting the voting system (my words not theirs) were not taken any further?
The government, of course, ignored this. This isn’t a party political issue, it’s about criminality and the death of trust in politics and democracy.
I don’t trust the results that we get on Thursday/Friday. Now that *is* a crime and someone needs to answer for it.
15-Nick Palmer
‘Food for poll addicts in different contexts in’
Based on the feedaback from your canvassing in Broxtowe and input from your colleagues,what are your predictions for next week?
81. Penddu - “one thing is clear is that it is their rebranding as Welsh Conservatives which has led to their recovery”
This is certainly the case in Scotland, where I strongly suspect that the Tories ever more prominent “Scottish” branding has prevented them slipping from the low teens into single figures.
Funnily enough, it is Labour which really struggles these days to get over a particular “Scottish” identity, probably partly due to the strong association in the minds of Scottish voters with Labour as the London government (a complete turnaround from the 80s when Labour were very successful at positioning themselves as Scotland’s champion against the wicked Maggie). But the other part of Labour’s lack of “Scottish” identity is due to their own internal organisation: London still pulls every single string at John Smith House (eg. the “Scottish Labour Party” only pays the wages of two staff!?! - all the other wages are paid directly by London.)
The Scottish Liberal Democrats have a genuine degree of autonomy; and Scottish Conservative Central Office is likely to become a much more robust organisation next year, after the dust has settled.
Re: 78 - No, Test, Rallings & Thrasher set the benchmark at 300 gains. I think that’s reasonable. What I’ve seen on here from some Tory activists and trolls is the idea that 500+ gains is not only possible but the lower end of expectation.
MY contention both last night and this morning was NOT whether the Tories could post 300 gains - I believe they will - but that seemed at the lower end of the expectations of some activists. I think that’s you Tories that need to learn about expectation spinning.
Re: 85 - John, you’re just a wind-up merchant. At least with Test, I get some sensible debate and discourse.
89. 500 gains is at the lower end of my own expectations, but what I am trying to get you to see is that I consider that a high benchmark. I think we are doing outstandingly well and expect the locals to reflect that. 400 would be good, I just expect better.
I only wish LibDems would be honest so that if they fail to match up they have to take the heat.
I see Tory predictions but precious few Labour LibDem ones. I can’t accept you would be happy with your party not to make gains when the government is at a record low, if that is so, what sort of opposition party is it, really? Don’t LibDems demand electoral progress from their leadership because if you look at ConHome they are holding DCs feet to the fire.
Maybe Tories are just more ambitious, I dont know
86. True, still I think they should make stronger statements and call for more police investigations
We are putting ourselves on the line by admitting to expectation of very large gains. So it will be easy to claim victory against us if our gains are only large instead of very large!
If other parties insist on lowballing what they can be expected to do, IMO it’s cheating in advance they can never be held to account because they predicted such poor results for themselves anyway. If static is the LibDem prediction against this awful Brown/Blair regime, why aren’t you calling for Ming’s head and a leadership election?
78/85/92 The bench mark should be a comparison with how the parties did last year . Conservatives made circa 320 gains with Labour defending circa 1750 and Lib Dems defending circa 900 seats . To stand still in comparison to last year they need to gain around 650 seats . LibDems need to have a net gain of circa 20 to stand still in comparison with last year .
83 I can see Cardiff North, Clwyd West and Preseli going to the Tories maybe Vale of Glamorgan and Delyn. Aberconwy will probably go to Plaid. The Tories will probably loose list seats. Who comes second in Wales will be decided on the popular vote and the regional list seats. I’d put money on a tie for second with both Plaid and the Tories getting 13 each.
I’m sure Cameron would like to have a photo-op if the Tories do well in Wales. It shows he’s appealling beyond the stereotypical vote. However, a net gain of, say, 2 seats would hardly be impressive from such a low base. I agree that part of the reason for this is that many conservatives didn’t take the Assembly seriously at first and bother voting. I really think it would be better for Cameron to stay away from Welsh politics and let his Welsh Wing have their own identity. His Etonian credentials won’t play well with many older voters and he will always be seen as part of the ‘Westminster elite’.
There were reports that UKIP were eating into Tory support in Wales, though I’ve not heard anything today yet.
93 - Why is last year so important? Do badly one year and you keep giving yourself low expectations. That’s a poor way to try and advance, you end up in a downward cycle of low expectations or an unsustainable level of high expectation.
For what it’s worth, R & T seem to have it about right.
83. Punter, you have to look at WA predictions each region in turn, and make a few assumptions about what else is happening (need Excel):
South Wales East: Conservatives have 1 FPTP seat & 1 list seat. No Con changes here.
South Wales Central: Cons 0 FPTP 2 List. Cons Gain Cardiff North & possibly VoG - might hold 2 liist if only CN gain, but definitley lose 1 list if VoG gained. So net gain 0 or +1
South Wales West: Cons 0 FPTP & 1 list. Bridgend are an outside chance of Gain, but would also hold list. So net gain of 0 or +1
Mid West Wales: Cons 0 FPTP & 3 list. Preseli likely gain, but would lose 1 list. CWSP possible gain (but more likely Plaid) but again would lose list - Need to win Montgomeryshire to make a net gain. Probable net gain of 0
North Wales: Cons 0 FPTP & 2 list. Clwyd West probable gain (depsite loony) but lose 1 list seat. Aberconwy possible (but again I think Plaid) in which case might hold 1 list. Delyn also possible, but in which case definitely lose 1 list. So likely net gain +1.
93 exactly. The LibDems did dreadfully last year. They cannot merely say let’s break out the bunting if we fail again at the same level
94. How would that work with list seats. TBH I would be surprised if PC or Tories did not break net gain of 2 or indeed 1 in Plaid’s case. I think PC will gain Llanelli with no list loss and will highly likely gain another from Labour eg a Caerphilly perhaps. CW&SP the only question is whether PC or Tories win. I think you miss PP for the Conservatives. I’m not sure 2nd place in seats will follow the popular vote. The Tories can easily be more penalised than PC on the list if they pick up constituencies. On the Lib Dems Harry Hayfield makes me confident enough to risk a small flutter on them in Swansea West. I also think Labour maybe in trouble in Cardiff South, but only if the voters rally to Tories or Lib Dems I think.
BTW Saw the Politics show. They gave a very good impression of Conservative prospects in Bath.
Can we recap Welsh seats situation summarizing views expressed so far?
Cardiff North: Con gain
Clwyd West: Con gain
Preseli: likely Con gain
Vale of Glamoragan: too close to call
Delyn: too close to call
Bridgend: too close to call?
Carmarthen West & Pembrokeshire South: Plaid gain
Llanelli: Plaid gain
Caerphilly: Davis getting Lab switchers, so situation unclear
Swansea West: all 3 parties claiming they’re going well, so situation unclear
Cardiff South: Lab hold because of split opposition?
Wrexham: Marek or Labour
Aberconwy: Plaid or Con, Labour probably finishing third
Ceridigion: Plaid or LD
Anything else?
89-Stodge
You are unable / unwilling to answer a perfectly reasonable question (which is not to your liking) so you resort to name calling,says it all!
110 Mostly agree but CW&SP I would still say PC/Conservative toss up.
Carephilly. I suspect it’ll be Ron or Plaid.
Cardiff South, yes if Labour hold. Only small chance if anti Labour vote coalesces, unless Lab really stay at home.
Wrexham any other year be Labour, but Marek is lucky I think he’ll hold for no other reason than Labour are on the back foot politically.
Vale of Glamorgn. I’m inching to the tories. I see Cameron’s presence as a sign of increasing hope on their part.
100. Pretty much sums it up - but also look out for possible surprises in Montgomeryshire (Ping Pong ffs…) and Islwyn (another 3 way split caused by independent)
97. In Mid West Wales, they can gain 1 FPTP seat and lose 2 list seats at the same time ending up with a net loss after a FPTP gain. It depends on how the regional vote goes.
100 Also forgot to mention possiblility of Plaid gain in Neath - would mean losing a list seat, so no nett gain, but worth it to see the look on Peter Hain’s face
The list is getting bigger, if Labour lose all of them, they’ll be left with just Cardiff West and Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney
103. I’m surprised Montgomeryshire is getting so little attention. Supposedly a Liberal stronghold but one must also factor in the Lembit effect.
Whatever it seems as though it’s the Tories and Plaid most likely to make progress. Perhaps because the Liberals might jump into bed in a Labour coalition.
98 Last year’s result for the LibDems was not dreadful except in the standard Conservative spin that was put out then and is still continuing a year later from the likes of you . The difference a year later is that Conservative gains of circa 320 then were regarded as a triumph when this year with 2 1/2 times the number of seats up for election you would regard it as a good result just to make the same number of gains .
106 LOL Andrea , yes the fantasy list gets longer and longer .
There is only one important election this Thursday- the Scottish parliament (the Welsh being a foregone conclusion). Local elections are utterly meaningless, have been pretty much since the war as powers have been transferred to Whitehall, with turnout falling to a rump of anti government malcontents, and old party loyalists. Anyone who can stand the sheer boredom of a council meeting (without being paid for it) must be either completely barking, or just plain mad.
The argument seems to follow that the local elections provide a base to fight parliamentary elections- in the 100 or so genuine seats that decide an election, and in the minority of swing wards that count. However, I doubt that this is true really. The main parties have more than enough actvists to target swing wards without needing a local councillor base to build on.
The locals only really provide a morale boost- but sometimes this can be somewhat of a poison chalice, as Hague and Howard, and years of Labour opposition found out- thumping local election victories, followed by national election defeats.
O/T Paddy Power have opened a book on which pollster will have the most accurate final poll of the Irish general election campaign. Would be very interesting if that was adopted over here in British elections!
109. Mark, the problem is that I’ve to remember all those seats on election night to check them. And I don’t have a clue on how Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney is pronounced
Seriously speaking, if Labour lose all of them and not just some of them, it’ll be a bloody night for them.
From Jane Davidson AM blog:
“I met another evangelist pastor in Beddau who said he would not be voting Labour because we supported homosexulas and were not strong enough on discipline. When I asked him if this meant bringing back the birch, he said that smacking had never done him - or me (??) any harm”
Maybe the voter was just a bit fetish and wanted to smack her
O/T - a couple of French developments today.
Hervé Morin, the UDF leader in parliament, has declared “without hesitation” for Sarkozy. He said Royal was not “of presidential stature” and remained “locked in an old alliance system” with parties of the extreme left. With Morin and Charles de Courson, Bayrou’s budgetary guru, this is almost the entire UDF group in the Sarkozy camp. Last night Bayrou said he still didn’t know who to vote for.
It’s also interesting that Denis MacShane, who is clever but traditionally tribal in his support for continental socialist leaders, came out for Sarkozy in today’s Observer (”Sarkozy will be better for Gordon Brown’s Britain”). If you want to be really depressed, read the stream of anti-semitic crap that follows the piece. This is becoming standard practice on the Guardian website.
Part of the problems with respect to likely net LIBDEM gains/losses arise from the fact that in the Metropolitan Councils only a third of seats in a ward are up for election - in the Shire District and Boroughs most are all up elections - lose 1 in a ward and you are likely to lose 3. So gains from Labour in Metros will not readily balance losses to Tories in Districts
106. How getting bigger. Only ones you mention.
109 - Mark Senior, I am not suggesting that all of these seats will change, but to clarify I will split them into Probables, Possibles & Potential Surprises. I expect that all of the Probables will happen, half of the possibles, and maybe one or two of the surprises:
Probable:
Conservative gain Cardiff North, Preseli, Clwyd West*
Plaid gain Llanelli, Aberconwy
Possible:
Conservative gain Vale of Glamorgan, Bridgend, CWSP*,Aberconwy*, Delyn
Plaid gain Caerphilly*, Neath, Swansea West*, Clwyd West*
Liberal gain Ceredigion, Swansea West*
Labour gain Wrexham
Potential Surprises
Independent gain Caerphilly*, Islwyn
Conservatives gain Montgomeryshire,
Liberals gain Cardiff South
* means on more than one parties target list…
UKPaul, I agree, and have a piece on my blog about it as well. This government is destroying our democracy.
117 missed Probable Plaid gain CWSP
Any other Llanelli like seats PC look at apart from Neath i.e not deep Valley seats 117.
You see Cardiff South as I do. Lib Dems polling strongly against Labour but struggling to break down Tory vote against good Tory candidate. Surely they have to do that to win.
Surely at this point of the campaign things should be quite clear on if the potential surprises can really be potential surprises or not. Is it clear? I mean if seat X could have been a potential surprise at the beginning of the campaign, by now parties should know if it’s neck and neck (so still a potential surprise) or party Y had hold off the challenge.
120.”struggling to break down Tory vote against good Tory candidate. Surely they have to do that to win. ”
well, they first have to pass the tories. The Libdems finished third in 2005 GE in Cardiff South even after the good swing to them
120: PC has a strong base towards the West of Swansea, but it is spread between Swansea West, Gower & Neath. All of these seats are winnable in the longer term.
121. Not quite as the 2005 election muddied the waters as to who the Challengers are in quite a few seats.
119. So Islwyn either Indie or Labour not Plaid you say then.
122. True but by only a few hundred votes in a seat they never really had a presence in.
121 Last weeks polls have had a big impact on tactical voting - people still deciding where to put their anti-labour vote. And funny things are happening in Caerphilly/Islwyn!!
119: I think that the 1999 Plaid voters are getting behind the Independent in Islwyn……last week it was looking confused - this week anything is likely. A lot will depend on turnout.
I was in Treorchy at the weekend visiting the in-laws - lots of Plaid posters in windows, very few Labour ones, although perhaps Plaid are making more of an effort after the by-election there a few weeks ago.
The Conservative club in Treorchy was also packed on friday night - but apart from a few photos of Winston Churchill I don’t think it is really that political.
126. “Funny Things”. Details………..
117 If as you say Labour lose all the probables half the possibles and 1 or 2 surprises then they will lose 11-12 FPTP seats , I would suggest that is far too many , but we will see on Thursday .
130. Views on the Lib Dem mention………
New thread - “How much can we trust the Scottish polls?”
131 My expectation is no change in LibDem FPTP seats but with Swansea West and Ceredigion as possibles .
Hmm. You dson’t like Cardiff South even as a mention then.
Rather silly to say last year was dreadful for the LDs. If flat is dreadful then every years we do better than dreadful we presumably gain… it should be a one-party state by now on that logic.
134 I am naturally cautious on these things especially if I have no experience of a campaign at 1st hand .
well, on one thing I can we can all agree: it’ll be a very interesting election night for Wales. I look forward it
In some sense, less predictable than the Scottish one
137. With so few polls v Scotland you’re absolutely right.
137. Bloody me…I meant “I think we can all…”
130 - Mark - some of the seats are listed twice against different parties, eg Aberconwy.
Labour are going to lose their 6 probable seats, and 3 or 4 possibles I would say. Whatever the actual outcome, it will be bleak in Mrs Hains house on Friday
140 refer 120.
140 Yes I was allowing for that .
137-39. I completely agree. Even if there were proper betting markets I wouldn’t touch them. Enough punditry, off to do some leafleting!
Labour is confident of holding Bridgend but it could be close. New estates and the loss of labour strongholds to Ogmore could make life difficult for Labour in this seat in the long run. Labour is lucky that the interest rise will take place after the assembly election. Neath is interesting with a weak Labour candidate. But if she loses then top of the Labour list is a 60+ year old who used be Hain’s agent!
144. But who would it be close to in B. The Toris are in 2nd but the Lib Dems have longerterm ambitions.
Neath so that’s the plan……….
I am beginning to hate the cheap accusations of fraud against the government for the changes in the voting system.The government is the first in 50 years to do something about our failed electoral process. We like the system because it is our hobby - the punters clearly do not
Our election system does not work - 60% turn out in general election - Please!!. And please don’t insult me with the arguement that if the issues were stronger they would vote, this implies we need a government to trully cock up in order to get a high turn out. Right - so we want the country ruined just so they will vote.
Sunday voting, super markets as polling stations yadda yadda yadda. None of it will make much difference
Do any of us expect that voting will not be electronic in say 20 years time? We had better think forward and sort out the problems rather then whinging about it and postal voting
Please name any part of life that still uses a system devised in 1872.
Hmm On that basis the secret ballot should be abandoned then……
146.Just what our once excellent voting system needed to bring into as much disrepute as this government. It was not the voting system which caused the drop in turnout, but rather the ordinary voter not being bovvered to get off their backside and vote!
45, Punter - I don’t know when I’ll be on Doughty Street! Iain Dale should have the book and says he wants to read it first; well, it’s nearly 1100 pages this time …!
Yes, the 8th edition of The Almanac of British Politics was published last week, and is available through Politico’s, I believe, at slightly below the list price; but I can’t see it on Amazon.co.uk yet, for some reason.
148 Conservatives were quite happy with postal votes as long as the numbers entitled to use them were relatively small and very largely Conservative voters .
150. Mark, what a pathetic post. Did we have postal voting on this scale or police involvement following various local and GE elections, and did we need the checks we now have to put in place?
Under the last Conservative government were postal votes at such a number that they could really effect the numbers and dramatically alter a result?
149, I’ve just seen that if you follow the amazon.com (rather than co.uk) link through the grotesquely priced hardback the paperback seemd to be on offer at about third the UK price, with the current $ rate…!
152 Of course postal votes should be more widely available than they were years ago and of course checks should be in place to ensure that the system is not abused whether by Labour in Leeds or Birmingham , Conservatives in Bradford or even LibDems in Burnley .
152. Is the book just a profile of each constituency or are you being bold enough to make predictions. In particular are you really brave in making surprising predictions like a Manchester Withington say. BTW Is this the last edition before the next General Election.
154, well, anyone who makes firm predictions this far out from the next general election would be very foolish. One can identify key seats in various scenarios, and offer some conditional analysis, eg for Manchester Withington point out that it is likely to be a question of whether the LD ability to build up a personal vote in the first term is counterated by any diminution in the specific 2005 circumstances that hurt Labour in a seat with an high ‘urban intelligence’ (academic and public sector) profile.
Generally I suppose there is some assumption that a hung parliament is the most likely outcome, but not about which might be the largest party.
This is the edition for the next election, and covers all the UK boundary changes.
Thanks for your interest, Punter!
155. Well “predictions” inverted commas! Only a bit of fun as Peter Snow might say! When I referred to MW perhaps should have said an MW of next btime, i.e a seat where geography or demographics makes it more vulnerable in actuality than seats that are notionally not as safe but are safer. Look forward to it.
150 - Mark, read the Times article and then you’ll realise that it’s the lib dems that the labour party’s corrupt practices are doing down. You *are* angered by the labour party’s attitude aren’t you? You should be.
157 Yes of course I am angered by corrupt practices of any party but that does equate with abolishing postal votes or modernising voting methods for polling or counting .
115 ApRhys .Yes you have put your finger on it.Lib dems gains are most likelyi n Metros but only i in 3 seats up and last contested in 2004.Lib dem losses most likely in all up districts where all 3 seats are up and which were last contested in 2003
Result -losses offset gains. Lib dems having stood still last
year will go backwards in 2007.
rogerH
158 - unmerous times the government have been warned that their plans were goig to lead to this yet they ploughed ahead. That suggests that they value legality much less than giving the illusion of greater participation.
If you have to make it easier for people to vote when all they have to do is travel a short distance every few years then you don’t deserve to have a democracy worth the name. This government has systematically take things such as the secret ballot apart and for that they deserve everything that’s coming to them.
153 - Of course postal votes should be more widely available than they were years ago
Why? What was the problem with needing to show a reason not to go to the polling station?
161. The typical labour voter can’t possibly be expected to find the time in their busy day, between picking up his benefit check from the post office and going to the pub, to walk a hundred metres to the polling station.
162 - Exactly and the typical Conservative voter would still be able to give his butler his proxy vote so that he didn’t have to get his chauffeur to drive him to the polling booth .
161,162,163,And the typical Lib Dem voter is stoned on a world peace rally,wearing sandals:lol:
164 - No they are too preoccupied with being shat on by their rent-boys
“Please name any part of life that still uses a system devised in 1872″
Some parts of life use systems devised many years before 1872. Much of Maths and Philosophy was worked out several hundred years BC.
If a system works effectively (which the secret ballot, and counting does) it really doesn’t matter how old it is.
I have not been able to resist responding to some of the predictions for the Assembly that have been made today.
I was accused of being barking the other day by Punter when I suggested the Preseli may not the the Tory banker that he and a lot of other posters here seem to think.
I have no crystal ball and we cannot trust the Welsh polls already produced, but my instinct as a mere foot soldier is that this will not be the wipe out for Labour that so many of you want on this board.
My instinct is that the Tories will only make limited progress and it may be Plaid who are the biggest winners.This will clearly mean some losses for Labour but not on the grand scale predicted by some.
As far as Preseli goes, I still see this seat as a close call between Labour Cons and Plaid, with Labour benefiting from the resurgence of Plaid.The Libs Dems are nowhere.
Here’s hoping!
167. Woof woof VB. Only a bit of fun.IIRC no one & I repeat no one has predicted Labour wipeout. The most outlandish suggestion is you might hit 22. BUt far more likely 24-26. Bad but hardly wipeout. Just a bit of perspective eh.
I was referring to Andrea’s tongue in cheek comment at 106.
Punter,on the subject of barking, I will donate £10 to my nearest Dogs home if Labour does not win Preseli.
I definitely am mad!
Scotland: Labour 41-45 seats / Wales: Labour 24-26 seats / Locals: Labour 451-600 net losses