Betting strategies for a big political week
April 30th, 2007
How prices change in the final few days
One of the features covered in my book “The Political Punter” is what happens to betting markets in the final few days before an election when the small body of knowledgeable political gamblers is joined by many in the wider betting community.
They tend to follow favourites resulting in the prices of the most fancied options getting tighter and others moving out. So according to the book “If the person or party you want to back is a strong election favourite the early you get your money on the better. If you want to bet on anything other than a strong favourite wait until after the polling booths have opened to get a better price”.
This applies very strongly this week and these are my approaches to some of the key markets.
Locally in Bedford where I live we are in the final three days of a bruising battle for the Borough’s elected mayor. Last time a multi-millionaire retired local newspaper owner won it on an independent ticket with the Lib Dems in second place. Unlike Thursday that election took place on its own without council seat elections at the same time and had a very low turnout. Things could be different on Thursday when the ability of the incumbent to hold on will require a lot of voters to switch from their normal allegiance.
The Tories appear to have been using their national direct marketing operation and the Lib Dems have produced the best election literature that I have ever seen. I’ll be trying to find a local bookie to offer me a good price against the incumbent winning again. As with all bets everything depends on the price and whether your assessment of the probability of something happening are better than the odds being offered.
Mike Smithson
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(OT) I have read on another website that the 1997 general election results night is going to be shown on BBC Parliament Channel on 7th May. When the 1992 programme was shown a few weeks ago, someone pointed out that it is possible to watch it on the internet (I do not have access to the funny-fangled channels). Where exactly can I find it?
“Poll finds Labour’s grip on councils is slipping”
http://www.theherald.co.uk/politics/news/display.var.1363305.0.0.php
Great article Mike - very accessible and informative from both the political and betting angles.
[2] Stuart - thanks for that link. Suggests to me that most people will only cast a first preference vote in the Scottish locals - and the fact that AIUI parties in the main are only fielding “winning” candidates may re-inforce this. What’s the SNP policy on voting systems, by the way? Seems to me there might be mileage in allowing each Council to choose its own (by referendum, much as English ones do for elected Mayors), if, as I suspect, the system Holyrood has imposed on the Scots turns out to be unpopular.
In Wales I can’t see how Labour can avoid being the largest party? Who are you thinking might be the dark outsiders Mike? Plaid, the Tories?
I was heartened to read the Lib-Dems on the other site saying how good their canvas returns were. I’m sure disillusioned Labour voters are more likely to be attracted to Mings sturdy competence than the tinsel and glitter that passes for to-days Tory Party. My two predictions for next week are that ‘Tory gains’ will NOT be the story of the night and that Labour wont do as badly as predicted in England and Wales. I would like to predict that the thought of the smug Alex Salmond on TV every night would give Scottish voters pause for thought but it seems not
5 - Well, if the LDs manage to hold on to the Gordon constituency that Salmond is targeting, I’m sure it will temper his smugness on the night just a little…
1 - John, you can watch BBC Parliament online here - (as long as you are in the UK, I think)
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/bbc_parliament/default.stm
5. On your first prediction, that seems a fairly safe bet anyway as many of the counts are on Friday. If the SNP win in Scotland, as seems likely - though the electoral maths don’t make the job easy for them - you can be sure that ‘Tory gains’ won’t be the lead story. After all, there have been Tory gains at every May local election since (and including) 1997; it’s not a new story. Labour losing Scotland to the SNP would be.
As for Labour’s performance, how well do you think they’ll do? I’d predict a score around 25-26 per cent as a projected share.
Interesting article by William Rees-Mogg in the Times today on Brown’s unpopularity
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/william_rees_mogg/article1722918.ece
“There is one finding that Labour strategists must find particularly disturbing. The worst figure for any of the 21 politicians in any of eight categories by gender, age or social class, is the percentage of 55-year-olds and over who feel generally negative about Mr Brown: that is 66.2 per cent.
The 55-year-old category is particularly important because this is the age group most likely to vote. Indeed it accounts for close to half of all actual voters.”
Mike’s point seems to valid for the French election too. We are still waiting for that one poll that shows Royal even or in the lead, or for the event that can turn the campaign around.
Last night the Sofres poll, previously the closest of all, showed Sarkozy gaining 1 percent, up to 52%. (There seems to be no Ipsos poll today).
Consequently Betfair odds for Royal approaching 4/1 and no bookie offering better than 1/4 for Sarkozy. (I managed to get some at 1/3 at Paddypower yesterday).
Seems that only a surprise Royal win (or Sarkozy gaffe) in Wednesday’s TV debate can make this really close.
5: Yes, the story of the night won’t be about the Tories. I think the media are geared to majoring on the Scottish election result as it’s easier to summarise in a single sentence than umpteen English results, and likely to be more interesting nationally than the inevitable “Labour loses a few seats in Wales” story. The obvious story in the current media mood is “headache for Brown as SNP surges” which they can more or less use even if the SNP fall short. The English results will probably be a “Meanwhile, elsewhere results were mixed but…” section starting paragraph five. That’s if the results come at much the same time. When do the Scots count?
14, Test Is that the same William Rees-Mogg who predicted Tory victory in ‘97, ‘01 and ‘05. Super reliable! Next you’ll be linking to Iain Dale!!
8. David. Predictions for Labour doom seem to be under 25% and for Tory euphoria 40%+. I think the Tories will be under 40%-perhaps 37-38 and Labour 26-28. Perhaps the Lib Dems will surprise everyone? I hope so.
11
“The English results will probably be a “Meanwhile, elsewhere results were mixed but…”
You must be the most confident Labour politician in the country if you think results are going to be “mixed” in England for your party, Mr. Palmer.
12. R-M is only reporting a YouGov poll, Roger. But then again you said that the recorded transcript the Sunday Times had of the Labour council leader in Leeds ordering illegal collection and completion of postal votes (and disposal of LibDem ones) was not to be trusted.
IIRC, you also defended Brown when details of his student pamphlet suggesting women work as strippers, scroungers cheat students of benefits, and ways to get into a bring-a-bottle party with empty cans and bricks so you didn’t have to stand your round, was published.
He can do nothing wrong in your eyes nor can anybody wearing a red rosette!
I think it’s telling that Nick Palmer asks Tories to comment on Cameron’s judgement in the Mayor of London thing, but when asked by me to condemn the Leeds Labour councillors willing illegality, says nothing.
5 I think you’re right roger the story won’t be “Tory gains in council elections” - it will be “Labour disaster as Scotland England and Wales deliver a huge thumbs down to the Labour party”. The more deluded Labour MPs (who Nick Palmer seems to be hanging around with) might talk about ‘mixed results’ but nobody will be listening. It doesn’t actually matter that Labour don’t do as badly as some might hope/fear they are going to get a very obvious kicking.
Test. Without taking over the board for a minor squabble I’ll just point out two things. The pamphlet you quoted was not written by Gordon Brown (when he was a 22 year old rector at Edinburgh University) but edited by him. So the opinions expressed would have been from many different students. This fact was in the article but being the Mail it wasn’t made clear.
Secondly William Rees Mogg always uses the same technique to prove black is white…”if 67% of the rural vote goes Tory and 30% of the Labour vote stays at home and according to a poll everyone whose name begins with T decides to vote Lib Dem but changes their mind then then I can’t see the Tories losing….” He’s always the same. He’s a laughing stock!!
If as it looks highly likely that the SNP emerge as the largest party north of the border we could well be hit the the greatest constitutional crisis since 1911. Interesting days ahead is a certainty.
17. Mark. You always seem very preoccupied by the West Lothian question. Did you say you were a Lib Dem?
Hello all! Saw my very first Plaid poster in Swansea West yesterday. Plenty of LibDem diamonds and quite a few Labour posters. Plaid are still sending out literature saying that they are the ones who will win Swansea West - is this for real?
11 - Nick, I think my neck of the woods (Inverness East, Nairn and Lochaber) we are expecting constituency results through by about 1.30am (despite the size of the constituency) and assume that this time is typical for most constituencies. I think the regional vote will be calculated by around 5am. Not sure about council votes.
17,
Mark too true I think the game is up for the union starting thursday.
Also when Cameron Conservatives eventually take over at westminster, Scottish Labour will rush for the exit of independence.
Nevertheless as this becomes more clear and the SNP clearly ahead in the polls, this in the last few days has become the issue, so I am going to have a punt that some voters in all parties supporting the union might at the last minute pull back from the Salmond sneering grin.
“I’m convinced that Labour is being grossly over-stated though”
why? Last week’s NOP poll has then down to 32%, 8% compared to 2003. Do you think they’ll lose more than 8%? if so why?
I find pretty unlikely that 32% grossly over-stated them in Wales.
Roger
If you edit it and publish it you approve of the lot.
David Cameron never trashed a single restaurant but you have been quick to pin the actions of his friends on him. Yet a paper Gordon edits and puts out, you’d like some distance from?
You have to be even-handed.
More betting opportunities shortly after this week has finished.
Here are the front pages of most of Scotland’s newspapers yesterday, not much cheer for Labour
http://ourscotland.myfreeforum.org/IS_IT_WRONG__about4016.html
Turnout, Andrea.
RE 24 should have added Ahern Calls snap Election
17. A party winning an election in a devolved parliament (in a way which was specifically envisaged when the devolution was enacted) is not a “constitutional crisis”; it’s democracy (albeit of the bourgeois distorted restricted variety). A constitutional crisis would only occur if there was a clear “yes” vote in a referendum on independence, followed by a refusal by the House of Commons to respect it.
(by “clear” I mean on a significantly meaningful turnout, and by a clear margin (a few % rather than just a handful of votes)
Trashing restaurants is a bit irrelevant. Trashing countries, as Gordon has collective responsibility for, is infinitely more serious.
The only thing Gordon can do to in his first week is declare that we are leaving Iraq. This would be such a huge change that his government would have a fresh look and be considered as a new operation with a chance of winning the next election. Unless he does this, and there is nothing else that would have the impact, then he and the Labour party are lost. Tinkering with the management of theNHS, though probably necessary, will have no effect.
With Bush rapidly approaching lame duckness, all the Democratic candidates (Labour’s natural allies) agreeing that the US should pull out, this would not be a particularly brave or reckless move.
Any chance of a guest slot by Roger’s friend Gaston le Garcon before the elections?
27: I’m not quite sure where the “snap” and “surprise” bit has come from - it’s been a full 5 years since the last election and it was widely predicted - although the date had been expected to be May 17th not 24th.
http://www.rte.ie/news/2007/0429/politics.html
20 - According to a thread on Vote 2007 quite a lot of areas are not counting till Friday, including the met areas of Yorkshire, which represent a fair proportion of the votes. This is presumably due to the postal vote checking procedures and is, incidentally, quite different from previous local elections.
32 The Yorkshire Mets also counted on Friday last year .
32 yeah, it’s ruining election night and damaging what little remains of local democracy in this country. The whole postal vote thing is such a bucket of puke in so many ways I hope it’s one of the first things to be changed when the Gordon takes over. Failing that it’ll have to wait for the Conservatives to win a GE.
Re 18 - Yes I,m standing as the Liberal Democrat candidate in Wakefield North.
32 - I seem to remember that the West Yorks Mets (which I’ve just realised sounds a bit like a baseball team - but I digress) counted on friday last time.
And you can now get 8/1 on Tommy Sheridan losing his seat - down from 16/1. Still quite generous but I can’t see it happening myself.
34 - I agree with every word and I also think the Electoral Commission is a complete waste of taxpayers’ money.
36.”And you can now get 8/1 on Tommy Sheridan losing his seat - down from 16/1. Still quite generous but I can’t see it happening myself”
Max, did you see Rosie Kane’s last column in the Sunday Mail? It sounded stranger than usual and half of it was devoted to Tommy (naturally)
Re McCabe and SNP councillor incident in Hamilton. The Labour version is that the SNP councillor tried to grab a “Vote Labour” placard from a student and pushed him. So Labour claims that at that point McCabe intervened and tried to push the SNP councillor back
38. Self defence then, just like Prescott when he was cruelly assaulted by that egg.
29 - I have thought this for a while Icarus. I doubt he will actually do it, but he could do the following:
1) Set up a committee to report within a month regarding a suitable withdrawl from Iraq - then follow the timetable to the letter.
2) Go on national TV - interviewed by a big hitter - and apologise for the whole sorry mess. Say that although you obviously supported the removal of Saddam, the thing has turned into a quagmire. Say the sort of decision-making that took us to war will never happen again and in fact you will legislate to remove these executive powers fropm the PM. Stress the importance of Parliament.
3) Support the actions in Afganistan and elsewhere.
This would really represent a break with the past and would actually be a very brave thing to do. Can he do it - perhaps this is asking too much.
29. I think Gordon is almost certain to announce an Iraq withdrawal. He’d be stupid if he didn’t as it would be cheap and almost universally popular. It probably won’t go down too well in the US but it’s Clinton/Guiliani’s *rse he has to butter now not Bush43.
Thanks for the tips Mike. What is your call in Bedford for the council itself?
39. Scallywag, not self-defence. Defence of poor young students. Labour spinned that it showed how he would stand up for his people when they’ve under attack! (”That’s Tom for you, trying to stand up for people”)
GB 1.11 on Betfair 11% over 8 weeks is looking better than it did this time last week.
38 - I’m not a Sunday Mail reader Andrea. Too pro-labour and it’s football coverage has a definate west-coast bias. No point reading it at all!
Shame there isnt a spread market on party gains/losses - I bet that would be interesting.
The faked Labour images scandal in Bristol just took a very amusing turn, with the help of Tim Ireland of Bloggerheads (the guy who did “Backing Blair” and all that funny stuff)
http://www.bloggerheads.com/archives/2007/04/busharat_ali_ro.asp
43. Ah defence of young innocents, even better! Thanks for that classic, Andrea.
40 RedFlump
“Say the sort of decision-making that took us to war will never happen again and in fact you will legislate to remove these executive powers fropm the PM. Stress the importance of Parliament.”
You do realise that David Cameron has already promised exactly this - the end of the Royal Perogative for the PM on war and the supremacy of Parliament restored?
10- Jan
There is no Ipsos daily poll on monday because they don’t interview people on sundays.
Tomorrow’s result will be a three day average of friday/saturday/monday.
I expect it to be a bit better for sarkozy : his counter-attack this week-end seemed to work.
His mass meeting yesterday in Paris got even better than planned : at least 30 000 people both inside the biggest concert hall in Paris and outside (more than 10.000 standing in the sun to watch 2 giant screens).
Royal’s answer is planned for tomorrow with a public meeting in a stadium with free concerts of some singers supporting her. This could be huge as well…if the rain doesn’t ruin it! (there were strong storms around Paris these last two days).
I agree with you : bar an horrendous mistake from Sarkozy in the debate, Royal is toast. The thing is that so many people expect her to be inferior to Sarkozy in the debate that a perceived draw would be good for her.
Still, she struggles to energize her supporters except by demonizing sarkozy : as all such polls have done, the last sofres polls has shown that 56% of her supporters support her because they reject sarkozy. The opposite is only true of 40% of sarkozy supporters.
45. Max, I just tell you that Kane’s column headline was: “We are in with the kinds. Tommycats like one”
One of the gems was “You see I’m Rosie and second on the Glasgow list is Jim McVicar. So it’s Rosie and Jim, like the kids’ TV show.
Wherever we go kids grab the megaphones to sing the theme tune.
I hope their parents remember that when they put their crosses down on Thursday”
48 - Good for him - I wouldn’t vote for him though!
I believe GB has been making noises about this for a few months.
48. Giving the decision to parliament would only make a difference if the government of the day had a small or non-existent majority. Note also there was no formal declaration of war versus Iraq…there is plenty of space to circumvent any theoretical shift of authority on this issue to parliament.
Total withdrawl of all troops from NI is also on the cards.
53. Unlikely - England, Scotland and Wales have troops stationed there between operations - why no troops in NI ?
53 - Would troop withdrawl from NI be in order to keep the peace process moving along nicely or in order to give GB a bit of a bounce at the start of his premiership?
Also no Labour votes in NI so no interested. Not that many votes from the Uk for this policy either - troops are far safer in NI than Iraq or Afg - whats the upside for Gordo - not a lot..
49 A negative vote can be a powerful thing.
In 1992 much of the Tory vote was motivated by an anti-kinnock fear rather than a pro-Major love in. The latter only had to look like a safe pair of hands. Which he managed in April 1992 only to be exposed 6 months later as a total no hoper.
Royal should be trying to look like a safe pair of hands at the moment. alas
PS How’s the weather in Texas
Withdrawing 95% of the military presence in NI is a money-saver, a reminder to people of Labour’s success in Ni, and a step to the ‘normalisation’ of the place.
I’m sure that (outside of Scotland) Thursday’s results will be mixed for Labour. Some will be merely bad, others dire, and still others catastrophic.
Red Flump. I think you’re being too pessimistic about Gordon’s chances. When he takes over he’ll be seen as a new PM and the public will give him a chance. He will have enough policy announcements to blow Cameron away without having to resort to gimmicks about Iraq. Everything he does from Cabinet changes to his living arrangements will ensure he’s the only story around. The last thing he wants to do is create a controversy for no reason. People will be desperate to know his direction. Iraq would be a diversion.
If he wanted to cause a cheap stir he could make his first announcement on the steps of Whites-Cameron’s men only club-and follow up by declaring he will strengthen the laws against fox hunting!.
41. Yeah announce withdrawal in a big fat statement and result in more of the troops being shot in the interim.
Mike, a short note to say your excellent book has arrived after the long flight from my antipodes to yours! I suspect I’ll be up until the early hours absorbing as much as I can.
60 - Roger, I am a staunch supporter of Gordon, but I think he has to ‘lance the boil’ of Iraq, or it will taint him just like it taints Blair. If an announcement in the first few days seems opportunistic, then wait a few weeks.
Re 60, Roger, “I think you’re being too pessimistic about Gordon’s chances. When he takes over he’ll be seen as a new PM and the public will give him a chance.”
You just keep telling yoursolf that!
Re 59, Sean Fear, yes I agree. There is going to be very litle if any good news for Labour that night!
(Or the following day when my count is)
Does anyone know how many councils will count on Thursday and how many (like Canterbury) are waiting until Friday morning?
14: Test - I’ve replied on the alleged breaches of the postal vote regulations - maybe you missed it? I can’t comment on the specific Leeds allegaitons because I don’t know anything about them beyond the newspaper reports - they’re a matter for the police to look into - but anyone who breaks the electoral law should be prosecuted and severely punished as an example to others. What else do you want (or expect) me to say?
59.”Some will be merely bad, others dire, and still others catastrophic”
Sean, maybe a couple of good news too. I think Liverpool Labour is expecting some gains.
I think Labour will do better in Wales than a lot of people think. I can feel it in my waters!
66 “What else do you expect me to say”
We expect New Labour MPs to defend the indefensible … just like they defend the indefensible in Iraq.
64. Benedict how can you be so cynical? Surely you realise that church bells will be rung throughout the land and many will be weeping tears of joy at the news of the Goblin King’s accession.
68. RedFlump, my feelings are telling me the opposite now. I thought they would have done ok, but I’m not sure now.
But I should check with my wizard first
Oh please may Gordon appoint you as policy adviser Roger!
59, lol. Exactly what I was thinking, but better put.
67 Yes, Liverpool, Hyndburn, perhaps Mansfield and Slough should provide a little bit of good news for Labour.
53,54,55.
Sorry lads the story is incorrect.
Basically there will have to be troops still stationed in NI for a simple reason..space. The army doesnt have the estate anymore to simply draw all the troops to mainland UK just like that. Most of the troops here I would venture are on 2 year tours, thus bring families with them.
The plan is to knock the numbers down to its pre-1969 figure of about 5000. They can probably bring it down a bit further but they won’t be abandoning a couple of facilities in a hurry, not least Palace Barracks outside Belfast, especially since it has a brand new MI5 building being built in the middle of it.
There is also recruitment and training done locally.
58. Labour’s success my arse.
Thank god for the Welsh Assembly though. We have a buffer against Thatcherism!
66, I apologise Nick Palmer. I must have missed your reply.
75. Yokel, I’m sure you’ve a beatiful backside but I don’t think Labour will list it among its achievement for this term. However Caroline Flint can use it as an example to improve people’s fitness
OK, now I am about to stride straight into 100% pure political nerd territory, but here goes:
Here’s the weather forecasts for Thursday folks!
The theory is that good weather = better turnout (although I have never seen any statistical proof for this). But it is fairly undeniable that a high turnout is better for Labour and the SNP and a bit of a worry for the Tories and Lib Dems.
And it is looking pretty good at the moment: dry and warm but not too hot (it is Scotland in May after all):
Glasgow: 20 degrees/sunny
http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/5day.shtml?id=1946
Edinburgh: 16 degrees/overcast
http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/5day.shtml?id=1808
Dumfries: 21 degrees/sunny
http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/5day.shtml?id=1656
Inverurie (Gordon constituency): 14 degrees/sunny
Fort William: 19 degrees/sunny
Lerwick (Shetland): 9 degrees/overcast
78.. NI certainly can be seen as a beacon of good practice in ensuting kids do not become a bit chunky thanks to the Summer School Holiday Low Level Street Violence Program.
The kids certainly do get a range of activities in a stimulating environment:
Running: From the cops or the other side when outnumbered
Light weight training: In a streetwise form using bricks
Jumping and skipping: When a brick or bottle comes your way
Camping Activities: Usually lighting a fire, by using a tyre with some petrol..
79 - Thanks for that, but is there any proof for the weather / turnout thing? On a similar note, I have heard it mooted (though never seen it proved) that good (ie dry) weather is better for the incumbant. (On a theory that if you feel good and happy, you are more likely to vote for the status quo). Any thoughts?
Ladbrokes still offering 1.5 on SNP. Down to 1.2 on Betfair this morning.
Yokel, I know you are much more knowledgable about NI affairs than me, but you must surely acknowledge SOME credit to Labour and TB? Even a little bit?
68. Just wondering how other Welsh people on here feel about Nick Palmer’s decision to back Peter Hain for Deputy Leader. Have to say I’m gobsmacked that the very decent Mr Palmer would have anything to do with the waste of space that is Hain. I can’t think of a more vain and insufferable presence on my TV screen.
Since the Deputy is really just a constitutional position with no great power, I’d have thought Benn or Johnson would be rather more publicly agreeable and a better counter-weight to Brown.
Men convicted over UK bomb plot
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/6195914.stm
At last some good news regarding Terrorist nutters. About time we had some straightforward convictions. Three cheers to the police etc.
As a Welsh person I quite like Hain. But I would really prefer Benn.
Or 1.66 (4/6) with Ladbrokes for Alex Salomond as First Minister if you prefer!
83. I think to suggest it was Labour’s success is wrong.
Did Tony Blair have a big part in where we are? Yes. But the reality of the matter was that to some extent the peace process per se was cemented before he got into power. The IRA were pretty much fought to a standstill and couldnt ultimately get what they wanted throught blowing the place up. The revoking of their ceasefire in 1996 was simply politics by other means and was unlikely to last.
What Blair was involved in helping to bring about was a political structure process, no easy task. The GFA collapsed because of some weaknesses within in, bad faith and then the fact it couldnt actually command the support of a majority of the majority population. One of the reasons for this was the fact that Tony wanted to gloss over the problems and not face them down.
What we are left with now, however, is a political process with more holes in than you can count. It may well survive but was driven through on a timetable, that of Tony Blair’s own legacy. If it doesn’t part of the reason for its failure may possibly be due to that legacy chasing nd not having a comprehensive and more water tight set up.
And before anyone blabs on, yes Tony did have a commitment to it but towards the end he was looking after himself. If anyone thinks the restoration of devolution date and Tony’s apparent resignation date are coincidentally close, forget it.
If it works out, Tony played his part and a big one, but someone else equally could have done the same job. If it screws up though he may well have to take some responsibility for it as well.
re 85, Jonathan, I know the man who supplied the fertalizer!
Needless to say he has had a bit of a ribbing since!
Stuart Dickson:
But it is fairly undeniable that a high turnout is better for Labour and the SNP and a bit of a worry for the Tories and Lib Dems.
Like in ‘92 when high turnout helped the Tories win on the biggest vote ever? Or like 2001 when Labour won a 168 majority on the lowest turnout in modern history? Fairly undeniable? Right.
85 I totally agree but let’s hope that in 10 years time we are not talking about another Birmingham 6 or Guildford 4 case .
86. Why would being Welsh make you prefer Peter Hain, who is South African and spends most of his time on Irish and african issues?
Chris(from Paris),
I’ve got a Bayrou question for you. Am I right in thinking he’s horribly overplayed a strong hand? He’s lost his entire parliamentary group and come out as clearly as he possibly could in support of Royal. Assuming Sarkozy wins, the new Democratic Party is going to be small and dominated by old lefties who could easily snatch its leadership. Do you think DSK will make the leap?
Totally OT, with an Irish election now called for late May, the current PM Bertie Ahern appears to have got himself embroiled in another ‘payments & donations’ involving no less than 30 grand..in cash, in a briefcase.
Interestingly enough the tribunal about to investigate these very matters has adjourned until after the election in 3 weeks or sos time.
If anyone is thinking of taking a punt on any aspect of the Irish elections, this is worth watching. The next Taoiseach market may be interesting as well. Bertie is still considered favorite with the leader of the main opposition, Enda Kenny still at evens though was available as bigger odds during this week.
Our Green person, Neil, may well have some more insight into this.
Bedford - let us know the name of a local bookie if you find one, Mike.
Note that the Beds on Sunday, supposedly independent of Branston, still seems to support him - or at least they went out of their way to disparage the Lib Dem candidate in the John Ball column on Sunday.
91. You’ll likely find some of these guys are definite players alright. We’ll see if the press sheds light on them now they are convicted or the cops and the Home Office will keep schtum this time.
Lets also thank god we didnt have a case of an Irishman who was caught with a couple of AK-47s in the back of his car in England and who got a not gulity from a jury. The not guilty co-incided with the Birmingham 6 release still in everyone’s head.
Said innocent person, so say jury, was later shot dead after shooting up a police station in NI with a heavy machine gun a while later.
Miscarriages of injustice indeed. Works both ways.
94 - The only thing I would say is that the *last* time Bertie was found to have accepted generous, five figure sums from various businessmen his poll ratings soared. I think the money was paid into his partner’s account - this would have to be the case as Bertie says that he actually had no bank account around this time. You could not make this stuff up if you tried. Just dont fall into the trap of assuming that this will hit him negatively - it might but there’s no guarantee!
97. There’s only so far he can go though with this without it stinking out the house.
The opposition haven’t been majoring on this at all, taking lessons from the Bertie bounce last time.
I do get the feeling myself that he’s in diffs though. Up until a couple of weeks ago, I would have thought he’d make it back in ok but now, he’s under the cosh.
98. The main defence of Fianna Fail (Berties party for the uninitiated) is going to be twofold.
1. He wasn’t in government at the time and thus couldnt do favours
2. The inquiry into all this is being put on hold until teh election is over thus, can;t say anything as its all prejudicial and all that.
Ok none of this will swing FF’s core but it has to have an effect on the swing voters eventually. There was perhaps a feeling that Bertie is an alright fella who got a bit caught out, no big deal, but this is another one and it may wear thin. People down below are used to their politicians doing the envelope thing and it seemed to accept it with a kind of shrug but it will start to grind down the incumbent in time.
And there may be more to come.
98 - Not to monopolise the thread with the Irish elections but the problem for the opposition is that only the FG / Lab / Green option can possibly unseat FF. If they fail then only FF-led (and hench Taoiseach Bertie) options will viably have the numbers. I have no doubt that the current government will be chucked out but FG / Lab / Green need about 24 gains (from a base of 59) to replace Bertie.
PS First decent value constituency bet from the many put up on the Irish elections so far - Patricia McKenna (Green) at 10/3 with Paddy Power to win a seat in Dublin Central. She’s a former MEP for Dublin, the Greens are polling extremely well Dublin-wide, if they pick up an extra seat or two in Dublin this is likely to be one of them. It’s not actually the surest thing in the world (I reckon she has a 50% chance) but in the context of PP putting N+1 candidates at odds on in every N seater this represents rare value - it’s the best value that is likely to be available in the constituency bets!
90. MBoy
Err… I was talking about Scotland. It really is a different country MBoy, in so many ways.
I’m after national vote share equivalents by party for local elections back to 1993. Either (or preferably both) Rallings and Thrasher and the BBC. Does anyone know if there is anything online?
100. Funny you should mention McKenna, I’m just readng through a thread elsewhere suggesting she could have the drop on one or two others in Dublin Central. Shocking to find that the radiant Mary Lou of Sinn Fein could be in diffs. I’d have thought she was sho-in.
I understand its a big ask for the opposition, but, given the poll numbers if Bertie is to make it back in, he’ll likely need Labour and/or possibly the Greens, which would be an interesting combo. I can’t see a FF/PD unit making it alone.
As unlikely as it is, if FF held on, would Bertie himself be a sacrifice for a FF-Lab administration?
Just a thought
102. The R&T figures can be found here (page 10)
http://www.parliament.uk/commons/lib/research/rp2006/rp06-026.pdf
102. Or some data at
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/
John Reid out to 50 on betfair.
Not many candidates available to lay now - most of the big odds on the outsiders have been hoovered up.
Details of the YouGov/Sunday Times poll of Labour Party members:
http://www.yougov.com/archives/pdf/GBC070101001.pdf
Gordon Brown leads Charles Clarke by 89% to 11% and John Reid by 83% to 17%.
92 Excellent question — I was about to post the same.
Redflump, does being Welsh make you quite like Lembit Opik as well?
107. As Gordo has the MPs and the unions sewn up it really is a shoe in ..
93- Mister Chip
I think Bayrou took many risks with last week’s behaviour. He managed to stay in the news and to demonstarte the left cannot win without his voters. But he also managed to prove that, only because of his ego and what he perceives as his chances for 2012 election (!), he was capable of betraying most of his party’s old system of values and alliances.
I think he went very far but he is still safe as long as he doesn’t express his choice for Royal : his MPs will only leave him in that case, and he knows it.
I don’t think DSK will jump ship. I think he would first try to take control of the PS after a Royal defeat. However, his hand is getting stronger to become PM if Royal wins…
I would bet that the new bayrousit party (PD) won’t get more than 30 seats (including current UDF seats) in the new assembly whatever the result on Sunday.
I think Bayrou managed, as in 2002, to preserve his party (although he would keep MPs only through their backing of sarkozy) and will start his new presidential campaign as soon as he can. After all Sarkozy is campaigning more or less since 2002!
79 I can’t believe the weather thing is being trotted out. My mum told me this in the early 70’s ‘lazy buggers tories’ was her view; slightest hint of rain and they’d stay at home. It was nonsense then and it’s nonsense now. If people are motivated to vote they will do so. It’s really not a party thing. Of course having corrupted democracy with free-for-all postal voting the weather has even less impact; it’s more down to can you persuade a local elder to tell all your constituents who to vote for and make sure they all vote in the presence of someone trustworthy (to prevent accidentally voting for the wrong candidate). That doesn’t seem to be a party thing either.
Gwynfa - Lembit’s heart is in the right place, but he’s a bit of an arse.
My Welsh political heroes are Aneurin Bevan and Neil Kinnock. Both good Tredegar boys (as am I).
109. Jamie. It certainly looks that way. Has John Hutton ruled himself out? The only scenario I can envisage now preventing a Brown succession is GB waking up to dire poll results this week and ruling himself out of the leadership contest! Can’t somehow see it happening though. While straws are clutchable I will continue to clutch.
111 My memories of voting for Mrs Thatcher’s government are of sunny walks up to the poling station, birdsong & flowers, vote then walk across the meadows for a pint siiting outside a country pub. The recent election weather hasn’t been as good
114 - oh I don’t know, 1st May 1997 was a lovely day.
Friends of mine - a whopping three voters - all live in Scotland and are Tories. They are voting Conservative on the top-up regional list vote but are willing to consider tactical voting on the constituency vote. This is unbelievable - they are as a blue as they come (well, for 20something Scots, anyway) but the Tories have no chance in their seat.
But, they asked me, do they vote SNP to whallop Labour or vote LibDem to save the Union? What do other Tory posters think - stick to their ideological roots or tactically vote?
112 I agree about Nye. I’d add Gwynfor Evans. And the early LLoyd George (although he became something dreadful — reading his biography recently, I was repeatedly reminded of Tony Blair).
Neil Kinnock managed to lose to John Major, which was an incredible achievement.
For what its worth, I think Lembit Opik is a clown, but Peter Hain is worse.
Come come - Neil K saved the Labour party from the awful Militant Tendency. That 1985 conference speech was leadership at its best.
116
Vote tactically. I’m in Edinburgh Central (Lothians for list).The Cons can’t beat Labour in the constituency it has to be LibDems or SNP. Probably LibDems.
I’m for giving Labour a hammering I’ll worry/or not about the union later.
116 - To be honest if I lived in Gordon I would be very tempted to vote Lib Dem. There are still things more important than party politics.
Not sure I’d be able to go through with it though!
118. What was so awful about Militant? They were real socialists, not middle class fraudsters like Blair et al.
118,His 1986 speech hit a note to me when Neil said ‘No honouring other people’s parents,no such thing as society,just me and now,that’s Margaret Thatcher’s Britain’-when I see young chavs driving cars with loud exhausts,hear of people in the private sector suffering appalling working conditions,I think how corrosive,ignorant and self-defeating Mrs.T’s project was-it is a shame that the Labour govt in many ways has been a watered down version,but at least I see light at the end of the tunnel nowadays
I find that voting Lib Dem at every possible opportunity gives the best result. Seriously though they should vote Conservative unless the Tories have no possible chance in their region. I suppose that is quite possible given the mess the Tories are in in North Britain - “We are very fond of Scotland” Mrs Thatcher might have had something to do with it.
That said I will be voting Labour on Thursday - No Lib Dem standing! (Actually I will be voting against the Tory).
Voting Lib Dem to save the Union would be a waste of time as they’ll sell their grandmothers to be the SNP’s sidekicks. Some Scottish Tories I know have more principle than the party hack mentality displayed at 119 - they’re in a constituency where voting Con/Con is sensible but would tactically vote Labour to stop the SNP if it were relevant in their area.
121 Militant’s policies were basically as left-wing as Labour’s 1983 manifesto-nationalisation of everything,huge,unsustainable public spending-if you visit psr.keele and follow the links you can read all manifestows of all parties since c.1945
116 - If they are voting tactically to beat Labour surely they should vote for the party best placed to do so? There’s no point in voting tactically for a Lib Dem that wasn’t going to win - they might as well have stuck with the Tories.
114,The night of May 1st/2nd was’nt too bad by all accounts:lol:
125: Militant’s policies were a ‘transitional programme’ not intended to be implemented, but merely to create grievances against ‘capitalist democracy’. A bit like the SNP’s policies and the Union really. Militant’s aim was a revolutionary socialist state, not just a traditional left programme.
126 - There are some seats (Edinburgh and Aberdeen Central springs to mind) where there are, in theory, three way contests between Labour, Lib Dem and SNP.
Can’t really think of anywhere else.
107. Hilary looking good for the DL - 2 x more supporters than any other candidate. Hain a distant 3rd - couldn’t happen to a nicer guy.
128,In the late 1980s,as an A level student I read literature publsihed by Militant,forseeing revolution-in a way as a naive 18 year-old I believed some of it.
Today as a home-owning 36 year old I accept the inevitablity (as proven by global events many times over) of capitalism-is it not the historic purpose of the Uk Labour Party to run capitalism more humanely than the Conservative Party?
1. JohnLoony - 1997
As Hazel Blears would say “Been there and got the T-shirt!!!
Nuts about 1997!!!
104 - Thanks Andrea. Just what i was looking for.
124 “Some Scottish Tories I know have more principle than the party hack mentality displayed at 119 ”
This “party hack” is inclined to the view that given a referendum the Scots will not vote for Independence. Rightly or wrongly that colours my view on tactical voting at this election.
130. I read this as referring to Hilary Clinton and the Democratic leadership first time. Had to do a double take!
131. You can’t “run” capitalism, that’s the whole point.
120.”To be honest if I lived in Gordon I would be very tempted to vote Lib Dem. There are still things more important than party politics”
And it quite fits party politics….I suppose the tories would like to give Labour a nice kick in the butt but at the same time creating a bit of embarassment also to SNP. SNP booiting out Labour overall but Salmong failing to win Gordon can be a nice view for some tories, wouldn’t it?
136,I see your point-I am sure a more appropriate verb thsan ‘fun’ exists-hmm,I will go away and think:wink:
166. I don’t understand the Scotish voting system and how the topping up system works very well, but would it be worth a Party splitting in two and getting getting its voters to vote for Party A at the constituency level and Party B on the regional top up list, as they would then count as having no seats at the regional level and would be first in line for top up votes.
125. ‘Militant’s policies were basically as left-wing as Labour’s 1983 manifesto’
Exactly, proper socialism as I mentioned before. Not the ar*e-licking of the super rich that passes for a Labour government today.
139.”how the topping up system works very well, but would it be worth a Party splitting in two and getting getting its voters to vote for Party A at the constituency level and Party B on the regional top up list, as they would then count as having no seats at the regional level and would be first in line for top up votes. ”
That’s what happened in Italy when there was a similar system in 1996 and 2001. In 2001 it was abused so much that some parties (Forza Italia) ended up with more seats than candidates available
138. Excellent. Nice to see my meaningless pedantry isn’t entirely wasted.
Btw, entirely off-topic, I found Stephen Tall’s piece on tuition fees quite interesting today (http://oxfordliberal.blogspot.com/).
139 - Yes, but I think the electoral commission looked into Forward Wales for doing something similar in Wales by standing Ron Davies as an independent. If a mainstream party did it for real there would be a huge backlash / ramifications.
I would not like to live under some sort of revolutionary Trot government, thank you very much, and neither did the vast majority of the British people. Labour had to change and distance itself from these idiots. Well done Neil K.
144 I totally agree-a part of me will probably always feel an injustice that Neil Kinnock was not elected PM
Yes Patrick - I think he did deserve a crack at it, but the British people just did not trust him. Add to that the awful kicking he got from the press and he could never really win.
145. I should imagine that very much like other Kinnock fans were on that glorious election day - you are in the minority
Kinnock would have been great. A human, intelligent prime minister with a wicked sense of humour. Alas it was not to be.
143 Still I suppose if some stabilish coalitions did emerge in Scottish politics, say Labour and LibDems, it might begin to be worth their while encouraging their voters to back one of their parties at a constituency level and one at the regional level and it would have the same effect.
If a similar system was ever imposed in England they could use it their as well.
144. 145. So what aspects of socialism do you two so-called Labour supporters object to so much?
I posted this earlier, but no replies.
Does anyone know how many councils will not be counting until Friday? I just wonder how meaningful the Thursday night result will be - is it worth staying up late for?
No idea, but because polls stay open until 10pm Harborough has decided not to start counting until the morning - I am sure many others will do the same. Presumably the Press Association will know.
Re 151, Mike, My council is counting friday, Horsham is counting Thursday night, Crawley is Friday.
I hope taht helps.
“!In England, 169 of the 312 councils where seats are being contested have decided to delay their counts until Friday - rather than starting straight after polls close and counting into the early hours.”
Just found this on the BBC site.
With Scotland and Wales counting mainly on the night (I think) then we should still get the beers in.
Kinnock would have been great at making sure the auditing procedures for the UK govt accounts were the envy of the world - just like he’s achieved at the EU….
151. Some of the main cities are counting on Thursday night (Birmingham, Manchester, Salford, Liverpool, Coventry…)
Barbara Keeley and Russell Brown have declared for Blears as Deputy
Thanks for of the contributions on the counting times.
It looks like over half will not be until Friday so I guess I’ll have an early night and get to my count bright eyed & bushy tailed to see how I’ve done.
I expect this trend will continue and those good old days of election nights will soon be a distant memory.
Perhaps they should delay all counts until say 7pm the following day?
148
Having met him on three occassions I would agree with your first and last comment but not the middle one.
Of course depending on the political make up of the councils that count on Thursday, the news headlines could get it awfully wrong on Friday morning.
151 it’ll still be worth staying up for; the Scottish result will be great theatre and some big results in England too. Not sure about Wales but I think it’s mostly on the night and again that’ll be worth waiting up for.